Guest in just a few moments. I want to point out a couple of stocks and individuals stories. Theands, immediately got to epstein point of interest, he did not mention him by name, but talk about having and taking advantage of her theres a lot going on, and facebook is down are botht and they getting some disconcerting news this morning with the news that margaret will continue in her job in the european commission, and she is also getting expended power and will be head of all of the digital tragedy density strategy. Guy what we have seen over the last 20 four hours has been really amazing considering where we have been as of late. Because value is catching a bit. I cannot remember this, but its been weeks ago, but yesterday it happened, huge move, some continuation of that. On both sides of the atlantic it is still negative. Does this mean that maybe the bond yields have bought some so again,0 year we are seeing this bond story dominating. Banks are catching a bit here in you up europe, the main driver. This feels very yield driven at the moment. And aggregates we are seeing like nestle, novartis, being sold today, but in aggregate,. Arket down by about. 2 vonnie keeping a close watch on to the fiscal stimulus push of his tenure. We are joined by the managing director of pimco, in germany, and today he is in Newport Beach california. You just heard the talk about the negative basis points for the german tenyear. We were negative about 70 a few days ago. A bit of a selloff in global bond speed what is happening. Globallyk bond markets were scared by the outlook for growth and inflation coming out of all of the trade negotiations or lack of progress thereof. So we had that big down move webally, and from here on sharp toirmation of a take yields lower. Maybe were getting consolidation now after what was a very big move down globally. Vonnie how does the ecb interpret this tomorrow or the next day, what will they do . The ecb will not be bothered at all by some of these ups and downs that we have seen. Their focus will be on getting inflation back to target. What will they do . I think they will restart the package, what theyve done before, and this time it will probably include a small rate cut move. The tearing of that rate on excess reserves, because it is starting to hurt bank profitability, a resumption of the asset purchase program, probably 20 billion or 30 billion for some months. The alignment of Forward Guidance and changes on the easing of conditions on the targeted longterm refinancing operations which start at the end of this month. That package, thats what theyve done in the past, and i think thats the consensus of what they will deliver. The big question is how does the consensus come out given the hawks on one side and probably the dovish proposals coming out in frankfurt. That is the consensus, how are you positioned thursday . Andrew we think the market has gotten ahead of itself. It is pricing in at deposit facility rates still down to minus 70 basis points. Last week it was down two 80. We dont see too much value in the front and of the European Markets, so thats one area we are not investing in. We think that the ecb, it will continue to cut, but we think it will go in very small steps because its going into uncharted territory. It is close to this concept of what is the reversal rate, the rate at which policy might start to tighten finance shook conditions or have negative impact on Inflation Expectations. We think it will go in small steps. It will wait to see the impact willaring, and we think it autumn out at 60 basis they should basis points. In ono think the low is the german tenyear in terms of yields . Is, certainly do hope it but i am always reminded by my colleagues to look across the border into switzerland to see how far things can still go further. We are in uncharted territory. Physicalf physical policy picks up, my hopes are not high, but we may indeed seen the lows. Vonnie why are your hopes not high . Is there not an argument for east germany to engage in some stimulus and wont that pressure come too much for the German Government to bear . Andrew on the surface it would appear the logic would appear to be there to expand fiscal policy. There is a little bit of room to maneuver the Coalition Government has set itself a target, but thats only a government agreement. So there is a bit of room to maneuver. Its not going to be big. Constitutional right that is written in that requires a majority in parliament to move that is a big hurdle to a large stimulus. From that perspective, we are not part expecting a into germany goes recession, the deficit will be expanding, but that will be the multipliers, not discussions discretionary spending. Talk about, and he is staying with us. Bloombergk in on the news. Pledges forson now a deal with the european union. Parliament did not give him much choice. Lawmakers blocking his brexit strategy, handing him a defeat. Last week he tried to get members of his own party to back his strategy. It guarantees leaving by october 30 first even without a deal. They refused. Johnson lost a key vote. North korea sends a message to that United States through short range missiles. This was after the country said it was willing to resume talks. Expressed desire for negotiations. Summer, the presence google rating slipping. According to a new bull, 30 of americans, voting age americans, approve of his performance in office. That is down 44 from june. News global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Live pictures from mnuchin and, steve ben carson both will be testifying to the Senate Taking committee on housing reform. You can see sherrod brown. Dont forget you can follow and weroceedings live, will bring you highlights. This is bloomberg. All to funnel more money to the same wall street system. Vonnie live from new york im , vonnie quinn. Guy in london, im guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. Here are the details. Red, s parkets in the down, and the nasdaq down by tose to. 1, so we are close 1 there, excuse me. Reading a fair amount by rotation, out of growth and into value. Down,t the stocks, 600 down by some point two percent. We are awaiting the meetings this week, the fed later of course in those meetings also impacting what we may be seeing in the ponds markets. We got the u. S. 10 year yields unchanged. Germany we are seeing yields rise. This is impacting gold. , justl back below 1500 above that, but we were also seeing a couple of notes saying we could see gold higher. It could hit 2000 an ounce within the next two years. Oil is rising again for the fifth day on its longest streak now in some six weeks. , rising to meet again some five percent over the days. We should be able to show you moodys down, and this company said it would sell one of its units, and also looking at wendys falling 10 . Investors not so sure about their attempt to bring breakfast nationwide. Guy mark carney says the global slowdown is underway. He spoke at the council in new york. the probability of that slow down, which is underway at economy wasbal growing at for printing four percent 18 months ago, but the possibility of that slowdown has certainly gone up. Was speaking and new york spirit he talks about the fact that we are getting close to a global liquidity trap. We are continuing the conversation with our guest. Andrew, do you agree with that . Do you think that ecb may already be there . Andrew yes, we do. That is something that we have looked up earlier this year. This is the 20th anniversary of the bank of japan having zero Interest Rates. There country clearly fell into this trap. Unfolding inly that euro zone as well, the lower Interest Rates not bringing a revitalization and credit growth. If you go back and look over the last five to 10 years, the history of negative interest qe, there has been a pretty low outcome in terms of inflation. And Inflation Expectations for that all speaks to that liquidity trap. Guy if that is the case, is istine the god a lameduck lameduck president . If thats the case, theres nothing more she can do. Do think she sees it that way . Andrew i think Monetary Policy and europe will be subordinated to fiscal policy. In essence, a replay of what is occurring in japan. That will require possibly some changes at the European Council isel as to how fiscal policy coordinated and run, but the future of Monetary Policy there , tos to be now subordinate go into a role of supporting the school policy. That could be simply asset purchases. At some point we dont know exactly where, but we will reach the lower bound on extra rate Interest Rates. That means on a goforth basis, the tool that has the ability to do something or the asset purchases, which is just what the bank of japan has been doing. Vonnie it feels like it will take a long time for that to play out. Any fiscal changes around europe, given how much uncertainty there is with elections right now, never mind the uncertainty at the european levels. What do you do with your portfolios in the meantime . Away, underweight your . For the core European Market spreading into Corporate Bonds now, like the jack and these jack these market, just gradually going away from the thetional stage of yields are not really that attractive, so european investors are increasingly looking abroad, which means emerging markets in that look good liquid development markets, that means the united currencynd even if our mighturns, those bonds not be that attractive relative to the yield on european government bonds. They still have a long distance, a long way from zero there is the potential for Capital Gains for they can still play a negative correlation of returns to other riskier assets in the portfolio. I continue to see Strong Demand from european investors for assets abroad. Vonnie speaking of u. S. Yields, what does that that do next week and where does the 10 year yield go . Andrew we think the fed will continue the recent path of cutting rates again, and it will continue that into 2012 the two thousand 20. As to the longer end of the yield curve, i think it will depend on the outcome of the negotiations and the impact it has on the outlook for growth and inflation. Now its not looking as if there is a good solution anywhere close insight. Vonnie thank you. That is the managing director in munich. Still ahead, investors watching for the latest iphone release and whether apple can continue to be a cash cow. We are live at apple headquarters next. This is blue. This is bloomberg. Guy in london, im guy johnson. Vonnie from new york, im vonnie quinn. Announceexpected to new iphones. They are also in the crosshanded cross hairs of a trade war, and joining us from apple headquarters is taylor riggs. Tell us what we can expect today. We are here outside the steve jobs theater, the third year in a row we have been here. You can see just the auditorium that seats up to about 1000 people. I think in terms of launches, the phone still continues to be the iphone. Analysts have talked a lot about transitioning this company into a services company, but they still get half of their revenue from the iphone. Models,the three new something we are going to be watching, and then the watch, which we know they have a lot of upgrades. As we talk about the further integration of hardware and software, we may not see Hardware Upgrades to the watch, look at more services, health care apps, ways to integrate some of the health quite health care back into the watch even if we dont get a hardware upgrade today. Guy lets talk about what is happening with the phone. This strikes me as a bit of a holding action. Why would people by a new phone when 5g is coming next year . Isnt that the big moment . Taylor youre right. That is why a lot of analysts have said they are excited, but this is perhaps a more quiet event than it has been in the past because we are awaiting the 5g rate it will be a make or break pretty much for every phone maker coming out next year. As you mentioned, its all about the camera. Earlier, our analyst said this isnt a phone, it is a camera device with audio. At a widerng a look lens, it does have some more technology to help with airbrushing, which of course we could all use out here at 6 00 a. M. It does come down to the camera here, and as well as the watch that we mentioned. Vonnie are we anticipating comments about china or anything to preempt what analysts are saying about what apple has to do . Taylor really glad you brought that up because at 10 00 will hear from the ceo tim cook and all of the analysts that we have been speaking to have said that they are awaiting comments about china and the tariffs. In september it was mostly the accessories that were hit. The headphones, some of the charging devices, what were really impacted by the tariffs. The iphone is not yet. That could be on the table in december. Theyre going to be waiting for his speech as he takes the stage and see if there are comments about the supply chain, the impact of apple. As we know its one of the Biggest Companies in the headlines as it relates to tariffs. The analysts are having a hard time quantifying this. Persone with a yesterday, and they said analysts are sticking to the fundamentals and getting back to the bottom line because it has been hard to quantify the impact on the bottom line, and so it certainly that will be another key thing here. Riggs, at apple headquarters. Thank you. Some breaking news, we have aramco picking banks according to sources familiar with the matter. They are picking goldman and jp andan for top ipo roles, they will inform them tuesday of their choice. Aramco said iti is lining up the banks for the longawaited ipo. Still ahead, focusing on the best global programs, and we are live at columbia university. This is bloomberg. Devices are like doorways that could allow hackers into your home. And like all doors, theyre safer when locked. Thats why you need xfinity xfi. With the xfi gateway, devices connected to your homes wifi are protected. Which helps keep people outside from accessing your passwords, credit cards and cameras. And people inside from accidentally visiting sites that arent secure. And if someone trys well let you know. Xfi advanced security. If its connected, its protected. Call, click, or visit a store today. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Guy from london, im guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. Lets check in with the bloomberg first word news. Heres viviana hurtado. Viviana huawei says it is the key to any trade deal between the u. S. And china. The largest Chinese Technology company says the u. S. Will need to hold talks with it, too. It is you doesnt important bargaining chip in the trade war. The Trump Administration has blocked the company from buying u. S. Technology it needs. China removing one more hurdle for Foreign Investment in its capital markets. Foreigners will no longer need approval on photos to buy chinese stocks and bonds, removing the overall cap on foreign purchases, seen as another effort to open up chinas Financial System to the world. In hong kong, chief executive carrie lam is pushing back against protesters seeking u. S. Help. She called that extremely inappropriate. S. Lam i strongly disagree with foreign interference in hong kong issues. We all have to be respectful to each other, especially on an international level. Viviana protesters want the u. S. To pass a bill that would require an annual assessment of hong kongs special trading status. Silicon valleys worst enemy returns with tina more power returns with even more power. Fornew eu Vice President squeezed huges penalties out of apple and google. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im the vienna or todd oh. This is bloomberg im viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. Bloomberg businessweek is covering the top mba programs. We are joined from columbias Business School with a highprofile from columbia Business School with a highprofile alumnus. Lulu wanggo graduated in 1983, and has seen a lot of upanddown cycles. We are kicking off this big day here at columbia with lulu. We want to start by talking with you about coming to columbia in 1983. What drew you here . I came to columbia because i had already been working wall street for a number of years. , had developed a Good Practice but i knew that in the future was a firm of my own, and i really one to have the best credentials. To undergraduate with strong credentials, but i needed to have the credentials of a Good University like columbia, so i came really for that reason, but found far more than that. Talk about that specifically. You were working and doing the executive program for a long time. Tell us what you got from being here. I found by coming to columbia, everything i had been doing and observing as an investor on wall street, it all began to come together in the context of theory and practice. I believe when you take practice from experience and put it into some sort of structure and theory, it really works. It all makes sense. One of the things you quickly identified was the ability as an investor and a leader to make stronger connections between the u. S. And china. That clearly has been a big part of what youve been doing. That has never been more relevant than it is today. Tell us what you see now, especially headlines every day about hong kong. What do you make of that situation . A very think it is fraught situation. I hear from friends and colleagues on both sides, both equally grieved. Ishink the way it works out that i dont think beijing thiszes it was going to go far. They do not want to have a tiananmen square. It is a very different world we live in with social media. They cannot have that, so they have to find some facesaving way to begin to calm the crowds. That thely, the beef demonstrators have is really more with the Hong Kong Government then with beijing. I think if we can work through carrie lam, shes already withdrawn the extradition bill, if she can begin to negotiate on the three other conditions that the protesters have set up, there is potential to work through some understanding. Is there a role for folks outside of hong kong and outside of china . There has certainly been some push among the protesters to involve the United States. What is your view on that . Not day job, im also on the board of asia the foremost Nonpartisan Group trying to bridge u. S. And asia, and we have been very busy talking to both sides about the issues. Ways if we can find the chinese are very big on face. They cannot be humiliated. If theres a way in which they can continue to stay with the one country, two systems, begin to exert some kind of control over hong kong, but not with the heavyhanded this we have seen, i think there will be a solution. Andusiness leaders, certainly investors, are talking increasingly of decoupling between the United States and china. Given youve spent decades coupling the u. S. And china in many ways, how much do you worry that that may become a reality . Lulu i think many people are concerned this is going to become a loselose. I think it can still be a winwin. We have leaders that are under shortterm pressure to resolve some of the problems for their economies crumble. Hasink the advantage xi is he is playing the long game, and believes the longterm future of china is very conditioned on china retaining economic, political, not necessarily military, but geopolitical power. The question is, does the economy crumble before he can achieve this . But he has many levers that are not present in america. He has been pulling levers. Hes moving more liquidity into the system. Hes getting some of his companies, both multinational and chinese, to begin to try to do more investing in the economy. Hes tried to bring more Capital Investment back into china. What you ares that hearing, ultimately, are the expectations from u. S. Folks you are talking to, folks from china, that there will be some kind of trade deal done, or is the fear that we keep hearing that we are going to see china go off with their plans and have its allies, and the u. S. Will go on its plans, and when it comes to trade and technology, what do you expect . Lulu i think it would be very difficult for there to be two fortresses. He world is to connected. We are interdependent, so i dont think we can truly exist separately. I do think some of the reforms the u. S. Is pressuring china to make are not actually bad for china. Some of the progressives in china have been for them all along, but they have been sort of outnumbered by the hawks. I think with this Current Situation where shes under pressure internally for having managed, in and a delicate way, is going to provide some opportunity for the progressives to say, look, it makes sense that we open our markets. It makes sense that we liberalize. So lets do some of this. We will make it appear it is our own initiation. We are not being bullied into it. That is very important. I think that would be very difficult for xi to overcome. But if there can be sensitive, diplomatic accommodations on both sides, i think it could come out better for both countries. One of the biggest concerns for investors broadening to the entire world is this notion of negative yield, a world where pensions and other Institutional Investors are not making the money they need. Do you see a shortterm change in that . You are so involved in so many of these big institutions as customers and as an advisor. I think theres a lot of liquidity around. There is money to be invested. That is why many bears on the u. S. Market are puzzled and frustrated that theyve been short, and the market continues to want to work its way up. , and wants to find a place in this very troubled world, the u. S. And the u. S. Dollar seems to be a relative safe haven. Find some if we can stabilization of the economic situation, that money can go back to work, the u. S. Certainly needs to have a capital cycle. We have not been investing in our capital equipment. I think if we can just get some predict ability, stability, i think both china and the u. S. And other countries can put money to work for the economies. Carol we would be remiss not to ask you a little about your Market Outlook. People are talking a lot about recessions. They want lower rates. How do you see the Economic Outlook and the Market Outlook . Lulu i dont think we are headed into a deep recession. I think we are clearly in a slowdown, and when that happens, you get a lot of panic. Certainly, the geopolitical situation is very troublesome. What i think the incredible volatility gives investors great opportunities. When i see a down 800 point day, i am just licking my chops. I am looking at my list of stocks. Carol you are buying. Lulu into the corrections. Then you get a swing the next day. If i have some stocks i am not comfortable with, it is a day to clean house. Jason great to spend time with you here at your all modern. We will have much more here from columbia Business School. Vonnie an absolutely beautiful setting there as well. Our thanks to bloombergs jason kelly and carol massar. Guy coming up, a subject they are probably going to teach at Business School, the rise of the robots. Concerns over ai justified . We will discuss. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson. Vonnie from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is bloomberg markets. Is time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. Investors having second thoughts ipo. The Wework Softbank once the company to lay the offering, concerned about its corporate governance. There are talks that the company is worth about 1 3 its original valuation. British airways forced to cancel almost all of its lights on in the second day of its twoday strike almost all of its flights on the second day of a twoday strike by pilots, cost to get almost 50 million a day. Another walkout is set percent, 27th. That is your latest is set for september the 27th. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Guy it big concern for many workers is robots, automation, and ai might soon wipe out the jobs. The likelihood may be somewhat exaggerated, according to a new study by the Massachusetts Institute of technology. Joining us is david alter, professor is david a utor, professor of economics at a mighty. At m. I. T. Particularlybout ai in the workplace, i read a lot about whether or not ai is going to be regressive or progressive, whether it is going to widen out some of the differences that exist at the moment or narrow them down. What is your research telling you . Prof. Autor our sense is that we have a choice, that we have a lot of influence over the Way Technology will develop and whether that will come a meant or substitute workers, and what are the possibilities for creating shared prosperity or a lot of concentrated Income Growth come as we seen over the last four decades. We are coming into labor scarcity because of slow infertility, restrictive immigration policies, an aging labor force. We are going to be struggling to find people to fill a lot of the and tradeluecollar, jobs, all of which are important in helping us meet those needs. The focus should not be on the quantity of jobs. We are not going to run out of work. It is really about the quality. How do we ensure that rising productivity turns into increased prosperity for the typical worker, not just the College Graduate and beyond . Guy that is the point, isnt it . How do we make sure that those further down the education spectrum get to take part in all of this . This is going to be pivotal. How do we make sure they are taught the correct skills to be able to take advantage of what is happening . Are we teaching the correct skills at this stage to make sure that is going to be happening . If we end up with further income distribution, this is not going to end well for society. Prof. Autor that is a concern we voice in our report, that people have a reason to be concerned because over the last four decades, weve done a pretty poor job of turning overall rising productivity into shared prosperity. In fact, we have done the opposite. s skills. We definitely need to improve, not in career colleges, where we do pretty well, but in the skilled, technical and , training training them for the trades and so on. There the u. S. Is really innovative, but kind of the wild west. We can do much more to improve efforts there. But thinking that if we skill them come of the jobs will come is not efficient. We need to change incentives around investment in workers versus investment in capital. Our tax code heavily favors spending money on machines and not as much spending money on upscaling workers. It doesnt recognize the costs that come from dislocation, displacement, closing plants. We can do better there. We can also shape the direction of innovation. Inpa has had a big hand producing Autonomous Vehicles on the internet. We can shape innovation focused on making workers more productive, not just making the more extendable. Vonnie right. It is a voluminous report, 58 pages from the task force. What policy prescriptions do you have . Do you see anybody on the campaign trail right now mimicking some of what you might want to tell them . Prof. Autor i think a lot of people are saying things that are in our report, not that they got them from our report. I dont want to stand behind one candidate or another, but there is a broad notion that worker voice, the notion that workers are stakeholders in an organization, not some leafy shareholders, is recognized by Many Campaigns and increasingly by business roundtable. That is when idea. The notion that we should provide Human Capital tax credits, you will find that in Many Campaign proposals. The notion that we should be revitalizing our skill Training System is widely recognized, and the question is finding successful models and scaling them up. Even the white house is working very hard on apprenticeships and sectorbased craning sectorbased training. The concerns about the future are not about the highly educated. They have done well and are likely to do really well in the future. It is the majority of workers who dont have a college degree, who have really not prospered in these last four decades. Vonnie one of the other stories we are talking about today is British Airways and its twoday pilot strike. Im curious who is going to regular this workforce of the future. How will it self regulate . Prof. Autor we need more innovation in worker representation. The u. S. Has a very adversarial model that is also very particular. One company, one union. Many other nations have a more sectoral bargaining approach. Workers are rep or in it its on boards. Theres bargaining at the industry level, not just the individual firm, which would be highly anticompetitive. We can innovate in a way which makes workers representative stakeholders without holding up corporations, without creating a conflict, buttant thatnizing the value training worker stability and Employment Security have for productivity. Guy david, we will leave it there. It is a subject we are going to spend many hours agonizing over. David aut david of economics at m. I. T. , thank you. Vonnie up next, our stock of the hour. This is bloomberg. Time now for our stock of the hour. We are looking at french Power Company edf. Shares falling for a third day. Substandard and Nuclear Power station are not words you want to find in the same sentence. Emma you are absolutely right. Those shares are headed toward the worst day since 2017. This, as you say, is after the company said some of its Nuclear Reactors may contain some substandard components. That obviously sent shares falling. Dominates Power Production in france, and the country is the most dependent on Nuclear Power than any other country. Its is the top 10, topping by almost one to present. You would have to get by almost 20 . If we switch up the board, you can see Energy Prices still skyrocketed on the news in anticipation of some shutdowns. We saw french power contracts post record gains. Also, u. K. Gas for next winter. That searched the most since 2013. Since 2013. Its not in a good year for edf anyway. Look at the share price, following some 38 . That is the stock of the hour. Guy thanks very much indeed. Bloombergs emma chandra. Vonnie time for futures and focus. For futures in focus. Joining me now from the cme is scott bauer of prosper trading economy. Would the news that there be the continuation of the same type of policy out of opec. Scott the new oil minister named that is part of the royal family is well respected, but he will take a harder line with some of the opec less nations, especially russia, in terms of adhering to the supply cutbacks and extending them. I think the market likes that a lot. The market is very bullish over that. However, we just can some nearterm resistance in oil. 57, 57. 50, with some resistance. We may see 50, though. I think some of the global issues out there, especially with continuing slowdown in china, is really going to weigh on the oil space. Vonnie we are at 58. 64 right now. I want to ask you about gold as well. We are in an interesting relationship with the 1500 1503 now. Scott i think it probably stays there until we see what happens with the fed next week. How dovish are they going to be . I think we could see gold may be going up another 30, 40 from here if we see a very devastating. However, if we do a very dovish stance. However, if we see a pullback that things arent so bad, we could see a drop of a be percent to 3 to quickly. Vonnie thank you for your thoughts today, scott bauer joining us from the cme. Coming up, we will take a look at private Equity Investment ayton. Avid l thats coming up next. This is bloomberg. At comcast, we didnt build the nations largest gigspeed network just to make businesses run faster. We built it to help them go beyond. Because beyond risk. Welcome to the neighborhood, guys. There is reward. Beyond work and life. Who else could he be . There is the moment. Beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Guy 30 minutes left in the european trading day. From london, im guy johnson. Vonnie in new york, im vonnie quinn. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Guy we are continuing to see bond yields backing up a little bit, today up another three basis points for the german tenyear in advance of the ecb thursday. ,quity markets is the big defensive bond proxy names on offer today. Stocks like nestle are down. Unilever, these kind of names are trading lower. Value over the last few sessions has caught a bid. This is over in the United States, the value index fading a little bit. What we havent seen over the last few days has been a continuation of the big brown proxy names content the big bond proxy names continuing to run on and on. Whether this is a turning point, we will wait and