Up fororget, almost 4 the month of august on the s p 500, even with all the turmoil and volatility. Yields down as well, although we are up a little bit today at 1. 52 on the 10 year. The dollar index continue to strengthen gradually. Several sessions now of strengthening. To best performing in the s p 500 right now is campbells soup after beating on sales. Dell also performing extraordinarily well. Some lower stocks as well. Ulta beauty down to 5 in the session. Ins look at europe 25 the session. Lets look at europe. The worst performer yesterday, best performer today, vonovia, saying it might pull out of berlin if the rent freeze goes into effect. The ftse 100the ftse 100 up 0. 1. The euro trading at 1. 1048. As investors close out this pretty chaotic month, with equity markets advancing and yields retreating, we are joined by christopher smart, bearings Investment Institute christopher smart, barings Investment Institute head. How should we trade on the news we are anticipating, on trade and tariffs maybe being suspended . Christopher i think markets are worrying about as much as they can, it seems, and reacting to every little headline. On trade in particular, markets are going to have to understand this is an issue that is going jan september and even into the next year or next on well beyond september and even into next year or next few years. We should focus on what should be driving markets, which is growth and earning. While the signs of recession are looming larger than in the past, we still have a very strong u. S. Consumer. We still have important productivity growth in the u. S. , and i think the excess of worry that is in the market right now is probably unwarranted. Vonnie the interconnectivity is a bit of a problem, though, right . You can say markets shouldnt be really worried about these trade headlines. They should be worried about fundamentals and the economy. But trade will impact all of those things if it continues to be a problem. Christopher sure it will. And the uncertainty from these trade exchanges has obviously been damaging, and will continue to be damaging. It is a tax on economic activity. Theres no doubt about it. The important thing to her number is that china is still a very big economy to remember is that china is still a very big economy, more independent than it had been. It is internal drivers that are really going to tip us one way or another in terms of growth versus recession. I think it is almost like Charlie Brown waiting for lucy to hold the football, and it always gets pulled away at the end. Investors are always hoping for a trade deal. In the end, the trade deal is never going to fix the problems. We are seeing analysts more and more forecast pretty dire slowdowns. Christopher of course, and i think we are very late in the cycle. It is natural i think that part for that Profit Margins would be under pressure. With pmis coming down around the world, investors are more leery around the world. The slightly weaker Michigan Survey you just mentioned, but overall the consumer seems to be in a good place. We have dodged the bullet on a fiscal shutdown in the u. S. This year. Fiscal policy is going to be supportive, and Central Banks around the world are on the case providing monetary support. Im not so sure that the recession, it will come at some point. Im not sure its looming in the next few months. Washington . About i know you keep a close eye on what goes on there. It is increasingly becoming a factor in the longerterm outlook for most investors. Christopher it is. It has always been a factor, but as we go into an election year, alternatives between President Trump and whoever the democratic challenger may be will come into focus. I think the various economic reform plans that candidates are putting forward now obviously are very distant, and whether anyone of those candidates might get anything could through congress is also a wide open question, but i think, moving into the beginning of next year, certainly by spring, washington will be high and everybodys mind, even higher than now. Vonnie what are you advising your clients to do . Do they prepare for a change in administration . Do they mainly anticipate that we will see the incumbent win . Christopher i think the secret that nobody in washington really wants to share with anybody else in the world is that any particular president has only a very marginal impact on the current state of the economy. What administrations do, what president s do, what president s and congress do our enact laws that ultimately have a much longer time horizon in terms of shaping the broad conditions and Investment Climate for business in the u. S. Economy. The fed is clearly a much more important place to watch in terms of policy outcomes. I think as long as we have a fed that is supportive, inflation that is nowhere in sight, and again, a fiscal picture, it is hard to know the difference between republicans and democrats if you look at the deficit picture, but certainly u. S. Government spending is not going to be coming down anytime soon. I think that provides some support for the economy for the foreseeable future. Vonnie we seen this rekindling of Risk Appetite through the month of august. We see markets price in two plus cuts this year. Does the fed need to cut twice or more . Christopher the fed has been saying all along that it is data dependent, and i think the data doesnt necessarily show that it needs to cut a lot more from here. Having said that, the bond market and yield curve is an important indicator of growth outlook, growth expectations, and if the curve remains inverted for too long, that can have a damaging impact on outcomes. So i think the fed, an addition to looking at the data, needs to weigh sentiment in financial markets. It is clear that jay powell and his colleagues have already been adding that into the equation. I think we can probably expect another one or two cuts in the next three to six months, but i think it is very hard to predict out much further from there. Vonnie christopher smart, thank you for joining us today. That is christopher smart, barings Investment Institute head. Lets check in on the first word news. Heres kailey leinz. Kailey the National Hurricane center says it is a part it is concerned by Hurricane Dorians slow approach to florida. The storm is expected to increase to a major category three hurricane later today, and could hit the u. S. Tuesday as a category four storm. Hong kong activist joshua wong is vowing to keep fighting. He spoke today shortly after being released on bail. We shall not surrender. I urge International Communities to send a clear message to president xi. Or usingroops emergency ordinance is not the way out. We will continue our fight, no matter how much they arrest and prosecute us. Wongtopher won kailey and fellow activists are due back in court in november. Morekong officials warned arrests may be coming, and a purchase march has been banned on saturday a protest march has been banned on saturday. Video should video footage showed migrants cross into morocco. Lawmakers have been dealt a blow in their efforts to block Prime MinisterBoris Johnsons plans to suspend parliament. The scottish judge has rejected their arguments that it will not leave enough time to avoid a no deal brexit. The judge held off granting an emergency injunction, saying there is more time to hear the issue next week. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im kailey leinz. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. Coming up, more on that battle over brexit. OffBoris Johnson ward rebellion in his own party against a no deal divorce . Thats next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Is is Bloomberg Markets lets get a check on markets now with taylor riggs. Taylor it is a risk on day. Every sector in the s p 500 is higher. Gold is lower as everyone is selling out of safe havens, and at least for today going back into equities. Transportation is leading the gains. Freight is starting to rebound. I want to fold that into the friday before labor day and what that means for you at the pump. 2. 57,gas prices now at 0. 25 lower than what it was this time last year. We are hearing some small reports starting to trickle out from drivers in florida that gas stations are starting to run out of gas, but perhaps no panic just yet. Speaking of florida and the hurricane, flip up the board. I want to take a look at the re insurers. Insurance companies could be on the hook for damages. You are starting to see a little bit more action there, off now by about 2 to 3 . Analysts are coming out with early indications, about 53 billion of insured value there is at risk. Something to keep a look on as we head into the weekend. Finally, some individual earners and movers. My big winter is campbells soup, up 8 . Sales beating for the quarter. They continue to be leverage on the credit side. The worst performer is all about ulta. I will chat with you about this stock later this hour. Worst day in 12 years, providing the full year end sales profit down. A lack of enthusiasm for the cosmetics company. We will see if kylie jenner can turn this around. Vonnie thank you. Turning to british politics now, a scottish judge has refused to block u. K. Prime minister Boris Johnsons plan to suspend parliament. Lets bring in bloombergs jess schenkel men jess s hankleman. Does this mean all avenues are closed to those who would want to stop Boris Johnson from suspending parliament . Jess absolutely not. Parliament returns from recess, and we are likely to see a show down politicians. We are also expecting to see three separate Court Hearings over the course of the week in three different cities trying to stop Boris Johnsons attempt to suspend parliament. Vonnie theres also a week left in parliament. On tuesday, what do we anticipate will happen first . Jess theres still a lot of maneuvering, but i think what we are likely expecting to happen is some kind of emergency debate that will be put forward at the beginning of the day on tuesday, and that will take place. Emergency debates dont have votes, or if they are, they are not binding, but speaker of the house john bercow could change that. What a lot of mps are talking about is taking control of the order paper in parliament, in a similar way to how they did earlier this year, and using that, once they have control, to try and pass a motion to force Boris Johnson to go back and seek an extension from the eu. Failing that, they could also hold a vote of confidence in the government. If Boris Johnson loses the confidence of the house, there could be a general election. Vonnie so a lot of things could happen next week. I saw it being cited as potential he the most important week in modern british history, which may seem like an overstatement, but i guess we will see what happens. It may not be. Jess absolutely. Another thing is they are even talking about sitting in parliament next weekend. Usually they break up on thursday evening, but we could see those two weeks run right together so that they maximize as much time as theyve got since Boris Johnson restricted the time they got to debate. Vonnie how many allies does he have in parliament right now, Boris Johnson . Jess this is really about a numbers game. Theresa may, as we know, didnt have the mass to get her deal passed. Boris johnson has really squeezed people into making a decision. Is forcing them into making a decision next week. At the same time, hes trying to show potential rebels in his own party that hes really close to getting a deal with the eu, so hes kind of saying, dont vote against me just yet because if you hold on for another couple of weeks, im going to bring back a deal, and you can vote for it. We are not going to have a no deal situation, which is what you are against. That seems to be backfiring in that lots of mps that were on the fence or were really concerned about no deal brexit are actually now quite alarmed at the decision hes taken this week, saying, ok, now it is time for us to react. One former minister says he one minister says he could vote against johnson, even though hes in the same party, and a vote of noconfidence. Vonnie who is someone who might go with Boris Johnson if something is in it for them . Jess theres lots of people who are sort of on the fence on a variety of issues. Ishink the main question whether rebel tory mps who would be prepared to vote for legislation to stop no deal would also prepared to vote against him in a vote of confidence to potentially bring down the government. One cabinet minister in theresa mays government said he will do everything he can to block no deal, but wouldnt necessarily vote against johnson in a confidence vote. I think that is really an area of new ants of nuance to look at. The euro continues to be a little volatile today, but it has been lower in the past several sessions. Our thanks to bloombergs Jess Shankleman from london. In hong kong, tensions rising as authorities look to calm prodemocracy demonstrations. Police arrested prominent figures, including joshua wong, and warn others could share that fate. Hong kong retailers are feeling the pain. July sales down 13 from last year. Check out this chart, and others featured on bloomberg tv, using the function gtv. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Is is Bloomberg Markets its time for our weekly etf friday segment. The man immortalized in the big short is making another big bet, this time in passive investing. Here to discuss is bloomberg intelligences etf analyst. What exactly is he saying here . Reporter his statements were kind of sensationalized in the media. Hes not out there calling for a huge short like he did in the mortgage crisis. What hes saying is all of the money is going to largecap beta and other things are being left behind. We kind of agree with him. Because atolleagues the beta vortex. We are seeing all of the money going to largecap beta. We are seeing that the most watereddown products are getting the most money. Then you look at active mutual funds hugging their benchmarks tighter, not as active as they once were. Even in hedge funds, we are seeing higher correlations to beta. We are seeing this all over the Asset Management industry. Vonnie as opposed to not shorting passives, how would you follow his advice and the etf world . Ofes he gives an example four companies that hes investing in. Hes going with activist investors. We see where it makes sense. If you are going to be an activist investor, it kind of makes sense in the small caps space versus a large cap space. If youre doing an etf, hes going for smallcap value. Vbr from vanguard we have deep value, Market Neutral value which will go long, and then you can also go smallcap internationals is another way to play things hes looking for. These things are falling outside of his beta vortex, as we call it. Vonnie we have the ticker for etfs out for the there. James if you believe theres a passive bubble, the stocks that come most to mind are fannie mae and freddie mac. They are virtually 0 owned by passive funds. A few examples over 1 billion, uber, spotify. The reason they are not passively owned, theres usually a good reason. d. Example, uber just ipo other ones have other reasons. Sometimes theres a bad reason they are not owned by passive. Largely speaking, the ones that are in owned by passive tend to perform poorly, but there are certain diamonds in the rough we have seen historically that just get left behind, and you can catch them. Vonnie what about fannie and freddie . They are governmentsponsored entities, so there are different rules. A lot happened in 2008, and they just arent owned at all. Vonnie james, think you for that. Thank you for that. It is time for a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. Tesla has won exemption from a 10 tax on auto sales in china. Company today also raised prices by about 2 in china as trade tensions weigh on the chinese yuan. Ongoing protests in hong kong are hurting its tourism and retail industries. There is typically a surge in july, but the hong kong tourism board says last month, 5. 2 Million People visited, only about 1 more than in june. That is the weakest in july since 1997. Tourism went down more than 16 right after the u. K. Handed control of the city over to china. Ultas of alto beauty of beauty have fallen 28 today as secondQuarter Sales missed expectations. Ulta also pared back guidance for the full year. Sales are climbing, but at a slower pace than in past years. The ceo says consumers arent has enthusiastic about its new products. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Lets get a check on markets now. We have u. S. Stocks higher. A few negotiations going on in italy that has some pressure on the ftse mib. From the couldnt be prouders to the wait did we just winners. Everyone uses their phone differently. Thats why Xfinity Mobile lets you design your own data. Now you can share it between lines. Mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. Its a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy a new samsung note. Click, call or visit a store today. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is Bloomberg Markets. Lets get a check on first word news. Heres kailey leinz. Florida is bracing for Hurricane Dorian, expected to make landfall early next week as a powerful category four storm. The governor has expanded the state emergency to nearly 70 counties. Dorian has already caused widespread Power Outages in the u. S. Virgin islands. President trumps decision to cancel a planned trip to poland during the hurricane comes as a sharp blow to polands populist government, who had been counting on a visit ahead of november elections. The president is sending Vice President mike pence in his place. The polish president says he tripiders the not canceled, but postponed. Minister isw prime making getting prisoners home top priority. The Government Agency that manages australias Great Barrier reef has downgraded its ralsok for the co condition from poor to very poor. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im kailey leinz. This is bloomberg. Asset no matter what class come august was a worldwide was a wild ride. Lets go to taylor riggs for a closer look at the action from the month. Taylor coming in take a look at volatility across all asset classes. Volatility rising here in august. If you come into my terminal, what that heightened volatility means is it was all about gold for the month of august. Now in white, up 20 for the year. Dont let that bond story s care you. Bonds were also the big story for the month. Interesting what you saw here. You wanted to take on a little bit of yield as we move down the credit scale, but you certainly are not going into the highyield sectors. We are getting a little bit more nervous about the economy. Ccs are the big underperformers here. Moving down in Investment Grade as much as possible to get a little bit of that extra yield. It is gold and bonds for me in august. Vonnie there is. Thank you, taylor. Bank of america has turned bullish on stocks and commodities, saying now is the time to buy. Bloombergs stocks editor dave wilson joins us now. , even with this kind of a cycle so long on the cheek now, they are still saying it is time to buy. Reporter reporter if you look at where the reporter if you look at where the s p has been in august, its been a lot of movement, but not a lot of direction. You dont have to go all that far to see a record in the index. Youve got stocks still fairly close to their highs, and its not like conditions have changed necessarily all that much in the market. They are still concerned about where earnings are headed. They arehird quarter, anticipating lower profits, just as they did in the first and second quarter, and companies managed to overcome that hurdle and bring earnings up. You may be setting up a similar scenario this quarter, and then who knows what the Fourth Quarter is . Vonnie what about this great rotation we are anticipating . Will it come . David people have been talking about the great rotation for years. You certainly have incentive to put your money in bonds at this point, considering how theyve been performing, as taylor was just talking about. On the other hand, youve still got relatively low yields moving lower. You look at the 10 year treasury, its getting close to its record low yield from three years ago, so from that standpoint, bonds, a lot of investors, they may be looking expensive. Stocks offering higher yields than bonds at this point much across treasuries, so there is incentive for income oriented investors to put their money into stocks now. Vonnie some individual stocks have performed extraordinarily extra nearly highly or poorly. Target was up 25 . Ulta beauty is down 20 today. James those companies are typically a month behind david those companies are typically a month behind the calendar in terms of their fiscal results, and we have seen some extremes. When you talk about target, its clear some of the discount retailers are doing well. Walmarts numbers were well received. Dollar general and dollar tree out this week. The results were viewed positively, especially when you count in dollar tree being up today after falling yesterday. It is very much an issue for other retailers. Tiffany went over well, some high ends doing ok, but when you about macys, and you see the challenges a lot of retailers face. Department stores are still feeling the pain. Are investors factoring in tariffs when it comes to the consumer at all . We seen the consumer stay strong, but today there was a blip in the michigan data. Wayd it sure looks that from the way this batch of retail results that we have gotten this week. You think about a company like best buy. Even though President Trump put off the tariffs that would affect them until middecember from this weekend, still, people looking ahead, not liking what they see in terms of higher cost. That stock taking a beating yesterday after earnings. Is think about a company like williamssonoma in housewares. If you look at earnings and sales, beating, yet the stock falls. Why . Because they are looking at tariffs down the line. Abercrombie fitch taking a hit yesterday after earnings. It is something that people are really starting to Pay Attention to, if only because it is right in front of them. It is coming, and companies are going to have to deal with the effect. Vonnie theres an individual story i want to ask you about today, and that is ge. Today it is announcing 3. 6 billion of assets it is selling to apollo and a scene and athene. David they are certainly trying to remake themselves. Larry culp has been there for a year now is to get sick hit of now as chief executive. Its a process. They were down after this report by an unnamed hedge fund said that ge was committing accounting fraud. Nonetheless, shares certainly bore the effect of that research, and only in the last few days have they started to pick up. Today with this sale, youre getting another gain. Vonnie im going to give viewers a sneak peek at your chart of the day, and that has to do with technology stocks, because you say they may lose their space as the s p leaders because of the tariffs. David we figure the latest round of tariffs is going to affect technology companys more directly than earlier rounds. On top of that, but i focused on in the chart is beta, basically a measure of volatility relative to the s p 500 in this case. That s p 500 Information Technology index, by far the most volatile in relative terms. 1 move in the s p 500, almost a 1. 4 move for tech stock. Thats been working in their favor as the s p 500 moved up, but that can certainly turn around if the effects of tariffs are notable when it comes to the companys results and outlook the companies results and outlook. Vonnie dave wilson, thank you. Can see all of daves charts today on your bloomberg. Coming up, we will bring you some of our exclusive interview with ubers ceo. Thats next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is Bloomberg Markets. Its been two years since the ceo of uber took the reins from travis kalanick. Another former employee was indicted this week for stealing self driving technology. Bloombergs emily chang spoke exclusively to him about the levandowski and kalanicks position on the board. Every management has their faults come but the fact is they built a Great Company, and now theyve handed it to me, and ive got to take that Great Company and make it even greater. I think im up for the job. While they made their mistakes, the fact is they built a great , and that had weaknesses has an will strengths. Emily the guy who ran the trucking business that uber bought was just charged with stealing trade secrets. What do you make of those charges . [no audio] vonnie we will return to that uber story in just a little bit. Lets move on now to another tech story, and that is tesla. From a taxxemption on chinese sales as elon musk visited the country. Lets bring in craig trudell. Why would tesla get an exception from china given that we did see musk in china, and relations werent the warmest . Craig it does seem to be a situation where the government is maybe throwing a bone to tesla. They are building a factory in shanghai that is very significant to them. It enables them to get around import duties, which obviously are in the headlines it feels like every other day here. Those duties are going to be going up, but before those affect prices, the changes in currency swings are already causing issues where we just saw tesla announce a price increase in china, so this helps blunt the impact of the changes in currency swings, and potentially helps offset the impact of the trade war potentially flaring back up in december if trump and xi are not able to resolve their differences. Vonnie the renminbi has been trading above seven for a few days. Right now it is at 7. 1571 offshore. If it werent for the currency impact, would tesla have gotten this exception . Craig i think that has to have been something that came into play here. Youve seen the situation where tesla has been fighting with one hand tied behind its back because you have electric vehicles that are produced in , so in addition to having to pay tariffs on importing vehicles into china, they also are sort of competing against these other plugin vehicles that are exempt from that tax. We definitely werent in the room when elon musk perhaps was pushing for this, but it does seem to stand to reason that they would have wanted to see Something Like this happen to help be more price competitive. Tesla is doing ok and china, but because they are not competitive pricewise, they could theoretically be selling more cars than the do already. Vonnie assuming they can make them and get them over there, right . Craig right. Vonnie obviously china is open to competition, but what about the likes of gm, ford . They would also like to get their cars, electric or otherwise, into china without taxes or tariffs. Craig they would. That being said, theres a big difference here in that gm and ford have [no audio] craig but with ford and with gm, they are building a lot of plants in china to not have to worry about import taxes, and that has been the trend youve seen globally with volkswagen, bmw, daimler, all of these companies have built locally to sell locally. That is just a sort of preference on the part of the companies, in addition to the fact that china has set up a situation where, up to this point, if you want to sell there competitively, you have to build there. Vonnie we just had the president s tweet on screen showing the president quite nonplussed with general motors, and asking should they start moving back to america again. Our thanks to craig trudell, bloomberg audit reporter. Now lets get back to that exclusive interview with the uber ceo two years after he stepped into the role. Hes look exclusively he spoke exclusively with bloombergs emily chang. Dara you need different kind of melody been different kind of management for different filaments of the company. Every Management Team has their faults, but the fact is they built a Great Company, theyve handed it to me, and ive got to make that even greater. I think im up to the job. While they made their mistakes, the fact is they built a great. Rand its my job to dig into the next level. Ran thehe guy who trucking business that we were bought was just charged with stealing trade secrets. What do you make of those elements . Dara i wasnt here when we brought anthony on board, but what i do know is that we went to incredible deaths to make sure incredible depths to make sure that any information anthony acquired from google didnt make it over to our company. That was our responsibility, and i think we are incredibly diligent in making sure that we were not guilty of anything that could be a various one way or the other. We think when you build, youve got to build the right way. Anthony is an incredible he person. Person. It didnt work out, but i did think we did the right thing. Emily the person who was here and spearheaded that acquisition , which might cost uber 100 million, is still on the board, travis kalanick. I asked you this on ipo day, but i feel like i have to ask again. Do you question traviss position on the board . Dara i am going to live in the here and now. Travis has an incredible amount of historical knowledge about the company. Hes incredibly bright, as are our other board members. I use him at the board. Hes a very strong advisor, and his background on the company is incredibly useful, and i think hes supportive. Ultimately, now we are a public company, and the shareholders are going to pick their own board. That governance process will take care of itself going forward. Emily so you talk to him often. Dara usually during board meetings, and occasionally offline as well. Emily but hes on the board for now. Dara hes on the board for now, and he will be on the board tomorrow. Still ahead, Hurricane Dorian gathers force. It is set to hit florida as a category four storm over the weekend. We will discuss dorians potential Economic Impacts next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is Bloomberg Markets. Time for the stock of the hour. Shares of ulta beauty falling the most in almost 12 years as they posted a rare Quarterly Earnings miss. Talked about weakness in the u. S. Cosmetics category. Partnership with kylie jenner gave them a big boost last year, and taylor riggs is with us now to talk to us about why almost 30 of this market cap has been erased in one day. Vonnie like you said taylor like you said, it was cutting that fullyear guidance that really heard them. Second Quarter Sales missed expectations, but more importantly come up with some of the pressure theyve seen from competition in the u. S. Cosmetics industry, we see about four per six to 6 . Previous guidance was looking for 6 growth. It is their lowest pretty much ever, and it has been declining, so thats one of the bigger issues. The street certainly is not happy this morning. Come into my terminal here at gtv. You are getting a massive reset from every analyst on the street. A majority of them all had buys. Atlantic, citi all downgrading. Two days ago the average price target was three dollars 76 cents. It is now three dollars. Analysts have not been able to cut their price target fast enough. It does not look like it bodes well for the stock. Vonnie it is still Opening Stores come but at the same time stores, but at the same time, it doesnt have anything to give the street. Taylor you havent seen a lot of new products drive enthusiasm. You mentioned the partnership with kylie jenner, who was supposed to help drum up new business. That is pressuring comps because really high sales last year make the comps hard to beat this year, but going forward, you have ultas 28 days of beauty. Lines launching later this year that they hope will help turn things around. The problem is, as we head into the halliday season, you have to look at accounting and how that impacts the margins. Vonnie we will see. Hugely volatile stock today, down on was 30 . Thank you. Time now for futures in focus. , pastg us is bob iaccino trading partners cofounder and strategists, at the cme. How closely are you watching dorian and its path in terms of commodities and other assets that might be impacted . Bob closely as always. Good morning. When hurricanes hit that area, more so the gulf coast and Atlantic Coast in florida, we Pay Attention to it in a couple of ways. The overall impact to florida could be substantial. I believe florida is the fifth largest economy in the u. S. , so it could be five basis points lower in gdp over time. From the commodity perspective, that lowered demand certainly isnt helping. Youre seeing that in crude oil right now. Vonnie talk a little about your outlook for the u. S. Dollar. We have seen strengthening almost every session the last few weeks. Do we continue to see strengthening after the tariffs go into effect . Bob i dont see a bearish case for the u. S. Dollar at all. Overall, the race to the bottom, the u. S. Is going to lose it. The Federal Reserve is not getting more aggressive. If anything, status quo pce numbers didnt help them because we didnt see a huge jump in core pricing spinach or. Overall, i think the dollar has to remain strong just because of activity across the globe, not including the u. S. Central bank. Vonnie we get into september after a topsyturvy august this year. Will september be any quieter . Bob it could be, civilly because of the celebration of 100 Year Anniversary of the communist party in china. I think they wanted quiet. Trade talks are supposed to resume. Will there be any agitation . I dont think so, but from an equity perspective, we are getting that low before earnings season. Theres a lot of talk of flat earnings again. Commodity demand is going to slow because seasonality is going to turn down, especially in crude oil. Risks are definitely to the downside. Vonnie bob, thank you, and have a lovely long weekend. That is bob iaccino, past trading partners, down at the cme path trading partners, down at the cme. Coming up, the countdown to the european close. Heres where stocks stand right now. Up here and in europe. This is bloomberg. Vonnie its 11 00 a. M. In new york, 4 00 p. M. In london. We are 90 minutes into the u. S. Session and 30 minutes away from the u. S. Close from the european close, the final trading session in august. We will be speaking about brexit and the volatile august that was in a few moments. Lets take a quick look at how we are looking heading towards the close. The euro weaker versus the u. S. Dollar, hitting a record versus the yen. Right now trading at 1. 1013. That is not stopping the european indices from moving higher this final session in august. Its been quite a good august for the likes of the desk. The ftse 100 up 0. 4 . Ae pound is coming back little bit after having a few down days this week. Vonovia, the worst performer yesterday in germany, happen