Buy greenland. In majore are off 1. 5 indices. The s p quelling back to 2900. The 10 year yield off its lows at 1. 8 . We did get Consumer Confidence data from the university of michigan that was a little disappointing. The 2 10 spread widening, although it is still narrow. Nvidia the best performer in the h p former 500, vying wit ge. Provides trips to game makers. It is bouncing back after an incredible decline yesterday. Guy lets talk about the incredible week we have just had to pay a tumultuous is one way to describe it. Entare joined by ubs investm bank Global Markets strategist. We will correct that in a moment. The week we just had, what is your perspective . I think the bond market is not giving us a signal on u. S. Growth. The biggest question we have 2 10 inversion, is recession in the u. S. This is a global fear of liquidity trap, making a bigger comment on europe and china than it is of the u. S. The fact that the u. S. Is the highest nominal yields aaa asset is the reason why the yield is getting it. But the twoyear belongs to the fed. The 10 year belongs to the world. Envision in the u. S. Is not a signal of a u. S. Recession. If a u. S. Recession comes through, which we are not accepting, if a recession comes through, that is apart from to theeurope, and then u. S. The problem here is weak growth and a lack of policy in europe. Consider the fact that germany is about 20 basis points, and at 88 points on the twoyear. That is a much bigger concern. We have not actually been able to create higher inflation asportations. Guy lets talk about germany. Two competing headlines. Little bit of a reaction over comments coming through, promising everything. The ecb will do everything. The market moves kind of a little bit. El,comments from der spieg saying germany would be prepared to deficit spend in the event of a recession. Monetary policy has hit the end of the road. What is your reaction . Bhanu two points to make. 1, this is a textbook definition of a liquidity trap. When you go to school, these people teach you fancy things like the curbs, and in a liquidity trap, the only thing that works is fiscal policy p of that is why it is no surprise that fiscal news is getting the greater reaction. Point 2, are they going to get fiscal spending anytime soon . That is the bigger question. It is possible the market may be talking itself into creating hopes of fiscal easing in a more imminent and larger fashion that is than is likely. The german on appointment rate can go up but has not gone up as yet. The next step is fiscal policy, but we will have to be more patient than the market leaves. It is not time to buy euro stocks because of fiscal policy. The causality may be exactly different. Vonnie exactly. We also have a change of chancellor to go through at some point. Take us through a potential timeline, if we were to see this goal stimulus, eventually, in germany. See signs of this coming through in the next few months and humbly in the context of a Climate Change package. That will be at not enough to move the needle for the european complex. If you thing about the amount of liquidity or funds that have from last year, so i am talking the federal government in germany, that will not be enough to move the needle. You would need to see come across the world, a pattern where trade and investment is weak and consumption and unemployment are strong. The space we want to watch most carefully without changes as europe, particularly germany, where our evidence lab work suggests we are seeing early signs of weakness in manufacturing and unemployment in southern germany. As that ratio changes and the Participation Rate in germany may decline the next few years. But as employment in germany weekends weakens, that is when we see a more fiscal serve. That will be in a matter of quarters, likely next year. There is a lot of wood to chop. Vonnie david westin of bloomberg spoke with Brian Moynihan about that earlier, and moynihan talked about how we need a framework for trade deals, not just with china but so on. The u. S. May be the biggest economy, barely, but it is still 20 if you take all economies together. How important is it that that happens first before we get to titfortat tariffs . Because that is coming, too. Bhanu this is a really important point. What we have seen is not just an isolated trade war, but what we have seen is global trade institutions being compromised. It is important we see chinese trade with the rest of the world, european trade with the rest of the world, remain strong. As you know, the u. S. China trade war is not the only trade war. There is a parallel trade between korea and japan. It is import for the Google Global it is important for the Global Economy that trade discussions remain robust. Tweets can go on and off two or three times a day. Business confidence will not trumpe, even with you get and xi jinping becoming friends. Business confidence will not improve right away, because they businesscipate that improves. Institutionally, you need to set up for trade. Baweja will stay with us. We need to talk about hong kong. We need to talk more about the ecb. Vonnie tech markets now. The dow up 1. 25 percent. The s p up 1. 5 . The nasdaq up 1. 05 . All socks on the dow higher except for chevron, dow 9 10 of 1 . Alt stocks on the dow higher except for chevron, down 9 10 of 1 . This is bloomberg. Live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. Guy from london, i am guy johnson. This is the european bloomberg markets. Lets get a check the uber first word news. Familyigrants and a member were rescued from a spanish rescue ship anchored near Southern Italian island, but more than 300 others remain stuck on the boat. Armsumanitarian ship open rescued 100 47 migrants in the Mediterranean Sea near libya two weeks ago. This ship had been stuck in the anditerranean due to a b imposed by the deputy prime minister. The u. S. Says it is gravely disappointed with the u. K. After a Gibraltar Court allowed the release of anna rainey and tanker, iranian detained after being suspected of hauling oil to syria. Washington says this decision could put the u. K. s hopes of a trade deal at risk. President trump is weighing in on hong kong protests. The president suggested that president xi jinping meet directly with protesters. He said he had no doubt that meeting would defuse tensions. This comes after days of protests at hong kongs airport. Opec says oil markets face a bearish outlook. This comes among a slow economy. Cuts arabia has deepened in july. Saudi arabia has shouldered most of the production and cuts. Global news 24 hours a day on air, and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im courtney donohoe. This is bloomberg. Vonnie lets get a check on Global Markets. Here is abigail doolittle. Abigail the rebound rally continues around the world. The s p 500 and the nasdaq at session highs, of at least 1. 4 or more up at least 1. 4 or more. It is only the best day since tuesday. Big down days and big up days. We are ending the week on a green note right now. The german dax up 1. 4 . Most of the asian indices higher as well be the shanghai composite up a modest 3 10 of 1 . But on the way, most of these indices are lower, especially for the emerging markets index. Sincea longest streak october of last year. Over that time period, down 3. 8 . It tells you investors have been shining em before they happen shining other global indices, which have been down three weeks in a row. A bit of a warning tell. But if we go into the bloomberg and look at the s p 500, there could be more bearish action. This is a yearandahalf long chart of the s p 500 in relationship to its 50 Day Moving Average in yellow, nearterm buyers in a blue, longerterm buyers we see the s p 500 would drop below the 50 Day Moving Average, but longterm buyers would step up. Not so much on the fourth quarter. Buyers disappeared. In may, on trade concerns, the s p 500 moved below both of those trading averages. The suggestion of prior. Is that the s p 500 would drop down to the 200 Day Moving Average, somewhere around 2800. The bigger message is we could see a drop down to 2700 or 2600. Supporting that possibility, a risk off week. You can see there risk assets, stocks, and commodities down on the week, while haven bonds up for a third week in a row, with 17 basis points. Ind up 2 for the third week a row. August shaping up to the risk off. Guy lets talk more about what is happening in hong kong. Big development today. The ceo of Cathay Pacific resigned. Rupert hogg faced pressure from china after some of its employees participated in an antigovernment protest. Resigned following responsibility from recent events. Still with us is bhanu baweja. China come at the moment, is trying to sit this out. Is that the best that markets would hope for . Bhanu it is exactly what markets would hope for. Had protests in the past. These ones are much more serious. Been managedhave locally in hong kong. If we did not have that, if we had this escalating further, that opens up another chapter in risk, not just for asian assets but more broadly. With taiwan watching, with their election, there is the risk of what happens to capital in hong kong and how that capital behaves in china and whether flight ases fears of well. Guy another protest or not today, which does not appear to be getting out of hand at this point in time. The danger has to be with President Trump linking hong kong to the trade talks. That is a concerning overlap. Bhanu it is. I do not think china would be enjoying any comments, friendly or unfriendly, from the u. S. On hong kong. But china has dealt with this wisely in the past, and i am confident that is what we should expect for their future and hope for in the future. Vonnie it seems like things have calmed down, at least on the currency, on and offshore yuan trading around 7. 04 and change. Do you see that staying the case . Bhanu we think there will be weakness in the renminbi. I do not think it will be uncontrolled. The chinese wanted to make a point on the renminbi as well. But chinas balance of services is not fundamentally Strong Enough for china to weaponize this currency. To 7. 1thinking it goes over the next few weeks and months, but we do think this is a strong dollar environment. When Global Growth is as weak as it is, the dollar is likely to remain strong by default. China is where growth is extremely weak, also because chinese authorities are not pumping the system with liquidity. On the that will weigh currency modestly. Longerterm, i think the renminbi has greater issues of whether china can actually balance, between the 3 trillion in reserve it has an. 7 . 5 had and the 7. 5 trillian it has. Vonnie there are a lot of people who would bet against it. Bhanu i would love to say we all think anticonsensus, but i am happy to say i am part of the consensus, and we think the hong kong peg will hold. I have been through the asian crisis, and things are much more dire than they are today, and the hong kong peg held. There is no reason for us to worry about the hong kong peg for the foreseeable horizon. People will bet that other people will bet that the currency will go. That is trading tactics. Outside hong kong, given the trade backdrop we are living through, it is difficult to see how their currencies appreciate materially. The question is whether they appreciate slowly or appreciate quickly. The emerging markets problem is not one of massive deficits anymore. They do not have a Balance Sheet problem. But they have an income state problem but in a matter which is slow depreciation pit as respect for the renminbi, we will see a similar pattern in korea and singapore. Vonnie thank you. Baweja, ubs global head of strategy. This is bloomberg. From london, and guy johnson. Vonnie from new york, i am vonnie quinn. Argentinas critical moment. The argentinian peso plunged 3. 5 following the defeat of its president to a leftist in its primary vote. Argentinas central bank is now tweaking rules about Foreign Currency Holdings to help shore up the peso. Still with us is ubs global head of strategy bhanu baweja. Ont is the thinking argentina and latin america more argentina,rticularly which shifted to more market friendly policies and now looks to be shifting back . Bhanu not for lack of trying, but this is a game changer. The fact that the population says this is too much austerity and weakness, this is too high inflation to take, and therefore they are going back to the other end of the political spectrum, is worrying. I think the more worrying thing for the markets right now is we do not really know the details of what the opposition candidate intends. I think if there is any mitigating circumstance, it is that this is quite different from 2000, 2001. Valuever the recovery in the bonds should be much better, which is why think there is some sort of a recovery in argentine assets right now, modest recovery. I am also reasonably sure that this will not become a systemic problem across emerging markets. Not a lot of people were in there, so there will not be systemic selling. Also, as the peso sells off, you get some hit in brazil, but weakening currency does not lead to collapsing economies which lead through the passthrough to where inflation is limited. This is likely to stay broadly localized. One example of populists looking to the old regime as opposed to something new. Is this particular to argentina or is it spreading . That voters want to go back to the way things were, to less austerity . Think theot only pattern we can speak about is that come across economies and across societies around the planet, we are vacating the middle ground and are going slightly harder right or harder left. There is a sick just an of liberalism. A suggestion of liberalism. The reason why i say this goes so far is it is the exact opposite of what happened in greece. You went to the populist arena, tried it, then moved back to the center. Try it. Some will some economies are further ahead, for example greece, which tried populism and rejected that. But it is a concerning trend, that we are rejecting middle ground. Guy if argentina goes back to where it was, is a default . Almost certain . Almosti would not say certain. It would be difficult for me to imagine how the leftist candidate would be happy to lose money and then take over an economy which is effectively bankrupt. Policy,ere is a however diminishing, that there is a default. The recovery value of the bonds will be the question. Ault is not baweja will stay with us. We are down by 0. 5 percent. On the day, we are trading higher. A much calmer session. Nothing really getting in the way. It is still summer. We are still getting light volume going through. But the bounce we happen waiting for the last couple of sessions coming through today. The ftse up 8 10 of 1 . It did open a little later than most. The dax up by 1. 3 . 1. 3 percent 1. 3 . I will show you what the week looks like from the european equities perspective, coming up. This is bloomberg. From the 5am wakers, to the 6am sleepers. Everyone uses their phone differently and in different places. Thats why Xfinity Mobile created a Wireless Network that auto connects you to millions of secure wifi hot spots. And the best lte everywhere else. Xfinity mobile is a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy an eligible phone. Click, call or visit a store today. Guy 30 seconds until the end of regular trading in europe. A positive day but not a lot of headline action apart from the german news. That is probably risk as a positive. European equities on the front foot. You have the iberian market doing pretty well. The rest of europe not doing badly. What a week it has been. Decent sized swings. This is the week that was. On the week, european equities down. 5 . We have lessened the losses in this last trading session. A little bit of cap higher first thing in the morning and then it moves toward the upper end of the session. Lets take a look at individual markets in europe to give you numbers. The ftse 100 took ages to get going. Technical glitch causing the ftse 100 nearly a two hour delay. Dax up. The auto sector under pressure. The european Banking Sector under pressure. The cac 40 up 1. 21 . One of the bestperforming of the major markets, if not the best performing. Lets take a quick look at what is happening with the grr function. This is on the week. It confirms everything you need to know about these markets. Look at what is at the top of the market. The big bond proxy names. Utilities have had a solid week. Nestle has had a solid week. Those kind of stocks have done well as bond yields have continued to tumble. Taking a look at the bottom of the market, no real surprises in terms of what people have been rotating out of. The auto sector down over 3 . More and more battered. Asic resources down 2 oil and gas down 1. 78 . Oil and gas from a brent point of view about have a positive week. Those are the sectors the market has not like. That is look at the european close. Our highs ofe off the day but all of the major indices are up more than 1 . Chipmakers playing into the balance. Nvidia says it is doing well gaming wise. The s p 500 up 1. 3 . 28. 84. 2084. 1. 56 is not high, given that are low up a few basis points. Considering this is going to be a recession at some point down the road, we did get Consumer Confidence data which suggests consumers are getting just a bit less confidence. The vix is down below 19. Lets take a look at solve movers. General electric has overtaken nvidia as the best performer after a massive drop earlier in the week. The gold index is down. Gold miners are a little bit lower on gold. It is above 1500 an ounce still. Chevron is down 1 for the worst performance in the dow. Guy lets talk about next week. Central bankers gathering in jackson hole, wyoming. Investors will be listening very closely to policymakers for any hints about the outlook. Bank of america ceo Brian Moynihan talked about the fed and negative rates. Brian what they should do is continue to watch the data and make choices. I think people are over reading the negative side. It is more than need to help prolong accommodation. This recovery could continue. This is longest recovery ever. Keeping it going take some help. Guy Brian Moynihan talking to david westin early on. ,e are back with bhanu baweja ubs global head of strategy. Jackson hole next week. The title for that meeting the challenges for Monetary Policy. Lets talk about the big challenges for Monetary Policy. Monetary policy seems to have hit a brick wall in europe. We are getting to an end. Talking about fiscal policy. What is the biggest challenge for Monetary Policy . Bhanu the biggest sign of our times is theres been a complete breakdown of the relationship between unemployment and inflation, what economists like to call the phillips curve. Fed, mostpar the Central Banks are inflation target. They have blinders on, not to get the Unemployment Rate that look at the inflation rate and say we need to keep Monetary Policy loose. What that means for asset price inflation, i think that story still being written and we will find out about that in several years were several decades. Now it means many Central Banks will struggle to hit their inflation mandate because inflation is declining for it is not declining Inflation Expectations are not declining because Monetary Policy is too tight, and Monetary Policy struggling to get ahead, which is the definition of the flattening yield curve. The one exception is the u. S. Fed because they have more room, and if you look at money and credit data in the u. S. , it has not been bad. It has been strong. The economy has been picking up. Monetary policy has room. The fed has more recently begun to behave like a pure inflation target. They are worried about the rest of the world, about europe and the japanification of europe and the europeification of the united states, if that is a word. The market has painted itself into a quarter of expecting between into a corner of expecting between four and five cuts. Guy ive heard the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. That encapsulates Monetary Policy. You highlighted one reason for that. What will it take for them to say politicians, we have done everything, this is it. Youve given us the mandate. It is not working anymore. We pushed Monetary Policy as far as it will go, to the point where it is having no effect and could be doing something bad to the economy. When does that point come . Are we there in europe . Are we there in japan . When we get to that point . Bhanu to be fair to central bankers, and policy always fights the last crisis. Inflation target was set up post 1970s oil shocks were inflation was a problem. We are in an opposite world where globalization has led to a collapse in inflation but we are still targeting inflation also inflation is going to 8 . It is not the best model for the time. Central bankers have been saying to politicians that the ball is in your court, not in terms of countercyclical policy, not just in terms of fiscal policy, but mario draghi has been at pains to zeta central bankers in the next downturn we need a robust European Institution framework. What about a Bankers Union . What about getting steps closer to a fiscal union . I fear we have flickered away that time, flickered away the good times. We can now throw the owners under the germans to write the fiscal check. We have bigger issues in europe there are not many college many countries that have fiscal policy. That may be our salvation through the next cycle, but the issue is whether the fiscal compact in europe can stay robust in of a future slowdown, which inevitably will arise. Vonnie despite how you feel the fed Communication Infrastructure has changed over the last couple of years, and im thinking about the president piling onto the federal reserve, which went ignored for a time and at some point was not being ignored anymore and four former fed chairs wrote an editorial about how the fed needs to stay independent. Im also talking about internal dynamics. A lot of fed speakers between meetings, maybe more than we ever did. Now we have a press conference at every meeting. Is the fed handling this transition to a new world well . Every institution is a dynamic institution and you have people and policymakers who when the facts change, they change their mind. With all of these disclaimers, i would say the communication from the fed has been challenging this year. Between paying attention to the domestic economy and genuinely worrying about the fact that we have a very different china. They do not have the willingness to stimulate the oh the Global Economy as they have done each time weve had a global cycle since the gypsy has been born in beijing. China does not have that ability anymore. Haspe is since the gnc been born in beijing. China does not have that ability anymore. That is why the communication has confuse the market, to put it bluntly. I do not believe that what is priced into the market currently is fair. We are looking for further rate cuts, but i think two to three rate cuts. I think the fed will have a difficult time. Risk assets is where the big challenge is. If the fed is not going to cut as much as what is being priced into the market, i think risk assets take a small hit. Heaven forbid the fed needs the forwards. Meets the forwards. Dont only be the case of financial conditions tightening aggressively. First you have to see a selloff and risk assets. Sometimes the market confuses what the horse and the card are and changes causality. You need to see a tightening and financial conditions. Guy it is not quite vonnie it is not quite clear how that manifests. The traditional stocks up, bonds down correlation went by the wayside some time ago and it is not clear it is back in some way. We could have risk rallying and bonds rallying, right . Careful, have to be because these correlations are fickle things. Whetherve been periodd risk parity trade has worked beautifully, and these periods typically happen when theres a Major Central Bank have it. Think 2012, whatever it takes. Think ben bernanke saying no taper in december of 2013, and then powells pivot. You do see the risk parity trade working, were risk premium falls you by the bond and you get equity valuation multiples going up and credit spreads coming down. Then that begins to change. We are already in a phase where after six to nine months of risk premium declining, risk premiums are climbing up. Volatility is climbing up. Even eurodollar, where volatility was get from you see it for the first time. That correlation is shifting. Im not sure the wrist currency trade, i do not think we can assume that correlation will hold. Guy i have to ask you what you think we will get from the ecb in september. We have discussed the framework Central Banks work and how that may be wrong, but nevertheless the ecb looks like it will have one more throw of the dice. How far does the ecb go . Is it equities . Is it bank credit . Where is the line . Bhanu there are already a lot of cards on the table and i can only hope the ecb does not disappoint. I do not see a positive rate for the next 30 years, for the next 30 years. A lot is being priced into the market. We are not looking for normalization for a long time. 10 ecb will have to deliver to 20 basis points in terms of basis cuts in terms of rate cuts. The qe is being fully priced. I think you hold the line at bad credit being bought and equities being bought. I do not think that is a call for here and now. If you do not get debt for 20 the marketnd will be quite disappointed. Guy mario draghi has navigated a different period during his tenure. His Christine Lagardes tenure going to be even more difficult and does she have the skill set to navigate it . Bhanu in terms of what is left in the toolkit, there is not a lot. You are looking at a difficult time. To be fair to draghi, he negotiated europe through a tough time. Whatever takes was not easy. There were questions on the existence of the eu and eurozone. There is no doubt in my mind that Christine Lagarde would also have major challenges. She is a good communicator and that is what you need. Theres not much else left in the toolkit. Guy thanks for stopping by to talk with us on a friday. Bhanu baweja, ubs global head of strategy. European markets through the auction process. London got off to a slow start with a technical glitch. We wrapping up a reasonably quiet session after a very turbulent week. Those are the final numbers in your. In europe. We will be continuing to talk about the markets on bloomberg radio. Dab Digital Radio is where youll find us. The cable show taking to the air at the top of the hour. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Londonm guy johnson from. This is the european close on your on bloomberg markets. Lets get a catch up on first word news with courtney donohoe. Courtney israel will allow Rashida Tlaib to visit the nation on a humanitarian trip. This is a reversal from the announcement yesterday that our country to two muslim members of the u. S. Congress. An omar and Rashida Tlaib this comes despite pressure from President Trump that says letting them into the country would be a sign of weakness. A russian pilot who managed to smoothly land his disabled plane in a cornfield said a quick landing was the only chance to keep his passengers safe. He spoke to reporters in russia today and landed his plane so gently the just one of the 233 people on board were hospitalized. People all across russia hailing the pilot as a hero. The president said he and his crew will be given high awards. Fouledorea firefighter projectiles into waters off the coast according to the south korea defense ministry. The launch comes the day after liberation day, a holiday marked by both koreas to celebrate independence from japans colonial rule. South korea is monitoring for further possible launches. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am courtney donohoe. This is bloomberg. Vonnie it is time for our stock of the hour. We are looking at nvidia. Shares are in rally mode following betterthanexpected earnings. In london to take us through the numbers is emma chandra. Emma at the highs of the session, on course for its best day since october last year. The Semi Conductor reported betterthanexpected profits and sales. Strength fromd its gaming chips. This sector accounts for more than half of the companys revenue. Gaming sales rose 24 . Some analysts expected a much smaller game for its chips. Most it applaud what Morgan Stanley called a sharp recovery in margins. Gross Profit Margins came in at 60. 1 , beating estimates by 60 basis points but falling short of last years number. Morgan stanley going on to say the market improvement indicates earnings should continue to recover. Nvidia has struggled, but the recovery is wanted as customers are held back. Shares falling 45 from an october 2018 high, and falling below the 6100 and 200 Day Moving Averages. Todays rally is helping you take aim at those key levels. Still macro weakness and the terror drama remain the tariff drama remain headwinds. Guy thank you for vonnie thank you for that. Coming up is our global battle of the charts. This is bloomberg. Vonnie time for our friday battle the charts. You can see these charts on the bloomberg. Just run gtv. Kicking things off is romaine bostick. Romaine the big talk this week was inversion on the 210. Officials will meet at jackson hole next week. The fed has been pretty consistent in saying they do not see recession imminent. Part of that is because 70 of the economy is made up of the consumer, the consumer still strong. A lot of data points that that looks at. The white line is how old Debt Service Ratio versus their disposable income. That white line at 9. 5 is lowest weve seen in the year. If you take a look at where we were in the recession in 2007, that white line was at 13. Right before the recession at the dotcom bubble we were at 12. Even back to the 1990 recession, we were around 11. We are well below where we normally were on that debt service level. The blue line is net worth of households in the ratio of their total disposable income. The trendline pretty obvious. Almost near record high. The trend run in the previous recessionary period was going down. Debt Service Going down, net worth going up, and that may give the fed comfort that the consumer has the capacity to be more resilient. Vonnie i love it. Thank you for bringing that up. Earlier asigan data well and we are keeping closely on the consumer. Guy, what you have for us . Guy i will stick with the bond market. It is a crazy place of the moment. I want to highlight one part of that craziness. A couple of decades ago the japanese started a process to lower yield. People talk about the japanification of the bond market. It has created europe and the fear is it creeps into united states. With yields dropping lower and lower around the world, the japanese bond market is starting to turn into something of a highyield are. Is crazy, that this is what is happening. What i have here is a chart of japans premium 10 year over germany. Japan looks like a great place to invest if youre looking for yield. Certainly of your coming from a german perspective. It can hedge the japanese gtb market into dollars. The yield gets enormous relative to what you would expect. What we are looking at the moment is the moment is a bond market that is completely on its head, everybody feels the bond. Arket as we are hearing that, what we are actually seeing is japan becoming one of the global highyield are, particularly on a hedge basis. Youwant to find this chart, can. Vonnie i am torn today. Im extremely torn. Theink im going to give winning slot to romaine bostick. It andas very little and typically dont give a time friday but ive been criticized for being too romaine you are doing good. I like the lavender. Vonnie you cannot flatter me afterwards. It is too late. You already won. Coming up, balance of power with david westin. Guests include former commerce secretary carlos gutierrez. 2888, the0 is at nasdaq up 1. 6 . The next just a look the vix a little, then it was. Crude oil is close to 55 a barrel. This is bloomberg. David from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, im david westin. Welcome to balance of power, where the world of politics meets the world of business. On the brief today, Colin Robertson from london on opecs Bearish Oil Prices and from the white house Kevin Cirilli on the latest upanddown of trade. Lets start in london. We have the opec report out and it tends to be bearish. What do they tell us. Was the message from the opec report. They use the phrase somewhat bearish. Global oil demand is not increasing they are not increasing their estimates for how much they think it will grow by. They think it will grow this year and next year but by a similar amount, 1. 1 Million Barrels a day in 2019 and 2020. The key message was there are continuing questions over the longer term around demand and a large part of that is what is going on between the u. S. And china. Expectations, slowin