We started to see 210 spread first,the world, u. K. And then as that happened, investors steadily selling socks, nervous about this sign of a future recession, even though it typically does not happen for a year or two after the inversion. Investors are clearly nervous. Lets take a look that inversion and see how it is happening. Lots going on. What we are looking at, in white, japan, in yellow, the u. S. , and in purple germany. In blue the u. K. Germany is still inverted. Japan is slightly above. The u. S. Slightly above. In purple, because all of the yields are in negative, that is up 22 basis points. Very close. Investors worry a recession could be ahead. If we take a look at a sector check, that is bearish. Take a look at utilities. They are up just. 2 . In a sea of red, that stands out. Those are the defensive utilities, then you have high dividends. On a date yields are plummeting, those stocks look attractive. Take a look at tech in financials, those are lower. That is true for energy. Finally confirming you have this big risk off day. Assets. Ooking at risk on bottom we are looking at haven assets. Oil is down 5 . Incredible after yesterdays rally. A multiday rally, copper often lower. Often thought to be a tell on the global economy. Take a look at the yen. It is rally against the dollar by. 9 . This is the inverted version. That 30 year yield you were talking about hitting a record low. Truly a risk off day today for records across the world. David thank you so much, abigail doolittle. We welcome mohamed elerian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist coming to us today from irvine, california. Thank you for being with us. I will put up the 30 year yield curve. We look at that because people say that maybe indicating something about a popular recession. Recessions come from polity does policy decisions, that is always what we have heard. Was jay powells decision enough to cause what we have seen today . Mohamed it is a complicated issue. Last december, the fed made two mistakes. It raised when it should not have raised and second it communicated badly. You remember the autopilot approach to Balance Sheet reduction that was reiterated . That was a mistake and most people agree. Second, lets fastforward to today. What is happening today is broader than just the fed. It is about Global Economic weakening. It reflects not just what the last december, which is rapid weakening in europe, but also china and the rest of asia is decelerating quickly. That is a major driver of what is going on. Credibilityhas lost in the last nine months. It had to do a massive uturn in the market is both holding the fed hostage, asking for more and more, and at the same time not believing the fed can make much difference. You no longer have anything anchoring the markets. He no longer have the fed ability to repress financial volatility, which leads to the third issue what is next . The answer is not the fed reducing Interest Rates. That will not help Economic Growth in europe. That will not help Economic Growth in china. The answer is more progrowth policies to lift structural impediments. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to materialize. That is the big concern looking forward. David that is something youve been talking about for some time, including in your book, after the need for fiscal investment in infrastructure and reform. Lets also talk about trade. To what extent is the deceleration you observe around the globe about trade . Trade growth has been in the negative for several years now. Dan absolutely. Mohamed absolutely, you see that in economies most incident to trade. There is reason germany went to kendrick traction, there is reason singapore revised down, these are open economies and the trading environment has deteriorated. That reflects a few things. One is trade policy uncertainty. Broadere have a deglobalization theme going on. It is being driven by politics and politics are influencing economic and market outcomes much more than a have in the past, and three it is a self feeding process. If your economy weakens because of trade, you import less and it weakens somebody elses economy in the process. Weakening economic trade is a big issue. Fortunately, the u. S. Is more closed and other economies. That is why the u. S. Economy continues to outperform others. David if that is right, how much of the current problem could be relieved if we could reach a resolution with china . How much of the pressure would go way . Mohamed at the margin it would help, but it does not deal with the deeper impediments to growth. It is a general malaise in both china and europe. These are structural impediments to growth. There has been no progrowth policy to speak of in europe because the five Major Economies are all distracted right now. Britain by brexit, italy and spain by upcoming elections, germany by a major transition at the top, and the fifth economy is france, where emmanuel macrons Reform Efforts are being challenged by protests. You have the five Major Economies distracted. They are not doing much on growth in the structural impediments are real. ,avid how worried should we be how worried are you about a recession . I will put a graph of of the new york fed. They are showing the likelihood of greater than 30 , the highest weve been since 2007. Every time that number has gone over 30 , we have had a recession. How worried should we be . Mohamed ive been worried about recession in europe for months. There im really worried. Europe is approaching stall speed in which growth of under 1 is not enough. Here, it is hard to trigger a recessionbased on how strong the household sector is. If you get a recession, it is because of one of three things. One is a selffulfilling issue. We worry about the inversion of the curve, we do not realize it has to do with distortions coming from europe and policy, and then we get ourselves in a selffulfilling cycle. That is the first risk. The second risk is a policy mistake. The third risk is a market accident. These are risk factors, it is not the baseline. The baseline does not suggest recession, but these risk factors are becoming more important. David talk about that distortion. Part of that as we have negative rates in europe that drive dollars and euros and yen and the United States. It drives down the yield curve. Should that give us solace that the 30 year yield curve should not be as disturbing as it is, these are artificial distortions . Mohamed we have 16 trillion of negative yielding bonds, especially in europe. That is a huge number. Thats put downward pressure on yields around the world, especially in the u. S. We are importing these pressures on yields. Why we have 16 trillion . The ecb has negative interest is inand europes economy bad shape. Yes, there are distortions to our yield curve that are pushing the longer end down, and we have to be careful. If we talk ourselves into this is about traditional signals of the yield her, it is about recession, it is about recession, what happens . The consumer becomes more cautious, businesses become more cautious, and the risk of recession goes up. It is important to break down why it is the curve is behaving the way it is. David when you talk about the negative yielding debt, 16 join dollars is remarkable in itself, but also the slope of the curve, it is not that long ago it was a trillion dollars. It is accelerating. Is that a matter of sentiment, accelerating, the buildup of negative yielding debt . Mohamed people being caught offside is another issue in terms of positioning. Third, the ecb has signaled in the last few weeks that it is likely to cut Interest Rates further into negative territory. That is also a factor. That feeds on itself. If negative Interest Rates come to the u. S. Markets, which are the biggest in the world and the most influential, it will break something in the system. We have to worry about negative rates to an extent they can materialize in the u. S. The fed has to be worried about this. David are they coming . People are talking about it. We had someone say he sees a world where we could see negative rates in the United States. Mohamed we could. If this that makes a mistake and gives the market too much in terms of cuts to quickly, you may end up with a short end being pulled down hard by the fed, the longer end being pulled down hard by your and all that creating a market technical that selfies. That self feeds. Market participants know what the selffulfilling dynamics look like. You could get there, but it would be bad news. David what would it be for the fed to go too far too fast . We are talking about three more rate cuts. Some people are talking about 50 basis points. Some are saying they cannot wait for the september meeting. Mohamed you had people saying emergency cut, 50 basis points now. There is nothing in the economy that justifies the 50 basis points cut. Im increasingly struck that your guests are not saying an Interest Rate cut will not do much for the economy, they are saying Interest Rate cuts may have an adverse signal for markets. Be careful what you wish for. No, im completely opposed to this notion of emergency 50 basis point cut. That would be counterproductive. David in this world, a lot of people are taking a look at the markets and saying where is markets and saying where is safety . Where do i go for safety . Are there any safe harbors left . Mohamed it is hard to find safe harbor other than cash and the yield on cash is coming down. That is an issue. There are opportunities. Im always impressed as you that i work with grassy specializes in emerging markets. What you are starting to see is a dislocation, where markets that are less liquid overreact, opening up opportunities that will play out over a number of years. If youre looking to invest today, do not going to the Public Markets that are likely to be all over the place. Look for the opportunities. We have them in private credit, and segments of the emergingmarket. Increasingly, you have them in highyield. Opportunistic is the right approach. Wait until other things calm down. David i cannot thank you enough for taking the time to be with us. That is mohamed elerian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist coming to us from california. We will continue to follow the markets. In addition, President Trump says he backed up on some chinese tariffs to protect christmas. We will talk with isaac k boltansky. That is next and this is bloomberg. David this is balance of power on bloomberg television. We turn out a Mark Crumpton for bloomberg first word news. Mark china has unleashed a torrent of verbal abuse on the protesters who swarmed hong kongs airport. Beijing compare them to terrorists and says they committed atrocities. The airport resumed normal operation today. Authorities have gotten a court order aimed at restricting demonstrations. , the president began his uphill campaign to remain president. He is offering a higher minimum wage and a freeze on fuel prices. Total cost of his plan 720 million. He is trying to recover from a primary election defeat by alberto fernandez. The man who was britains top finance official until three weeks ago is accusing Boris Johnson of steering the country toward a damaging no deal brexit that is not backed by parliament or voters. Philip hammond says leaving the eu without a deal would be a betrayal of the referendum results. Johnson has said he is committing to delivering brexit do or die on october 31. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. David . David President Trump decided yesterday to hold off on tariffs for some chinese imports until december. Stocks jumped on the news. Bonds were more skeptical. Today we are seeing a reversal in the stock market and bond yields continue to fall, with the 30 year yield setting alltime record at one point. We welcome Isaac Boltansky, pompous Compass Point director of policy. President trump try to help out the markets. It appears this was not enough. Isaac i think that the market appropriately looked through that announcement and realized that delay was more about santa claus than about the actual trade talks between china and the u. S. This was something that was intended to at least partially shield the American Consumer heading into the holiday season. It was not reflective of anything regarding substantive discussions between china and the u. S. On the trade front, which is a reminder of where we are with this, which is that we have been in this back and forth over symbolism and titfortat retaliatory steps. The market at this point is no longer going to be satisfied with symbolism. There is a need for tangible measurable progress in order to show that the damage that has been done by policymakers can be undone. David didnt tell us anything at all about the pressure the president is feeling, if not from president xi than his voters in 2020 if they have to spend too much on christmas. Is that something that indicates the leaders may be feeling pressure . Isaac i think you hit the nail on the head. This is the first time the president has publicly knowledge that there could be a consumer harm from the tariffs. This is something you and i and knew, butur viewers the reality is this 300 billion tranche has a concern about has a considerable amount of consumer goods in it. Laptops, videogames, apparel, all the things you and i go to buy. Immunology there would be him acknowledging there would be a Consumer Impact is a meaningful mile marker in this story, almost as meaningful as the impact we have seen on farmers. David we have a 2020 election coming up, as the president knows well, as do you. Might we actually been in or near a recession . I will put a chart up based on the new york fed, they put a probability of, which is above 30 . The last time that was true was in 2007. Since 1967 it has never got above 30 without a recession. Is the white house worried about that dire possibility . Isaac given that this is balance of power it is relevant to recall what James Carville said. He has talked about wanting to be reincarnated as something powerful, like a point 400 baseball player. Instead he wants to come back as a bond market so he can intimidate anyone. These policy decisions we have seen domestically and abroad have had a tangible impact on the economy. You are seeing that in everything from the ifn to the durable goods orders reports across the globe. My view of where we are is that it is still early in the election cycle, but it will take time for the economy to heal from some of the trade war uncertainty and the Political Uncertainty abroad. The white house is cognizant of this and i think over the appropriate time will move to slow this trade war. I do not think you get a sweeping deal, i think this is too complicated and there are political undertones, but my baseline is still you get a detante that stops the retaliatory spiral and enough time for the economy to show positive signals heading into november next year. David you talk about an arc of time. What does that arc look like . They agreed to have a telephone call. It appears the chinese will come in september. At the same time you have a first of october deadline with the chinese anniversary. What can the markets think its deep into, not a total resolution but get around it . Isaac it is clear from the president tweets he likes to have the Federal Reserve as the scapegoat, wants to be able to blame them and badger them into cutting rates again. At a minimum, im waiting for the next meeting to see where the politics of the battle between the fed and the white house plays out. From there, it is a question of what the market keeps doing. I can tell you there are folks in the white house watching your channel and watching the red and saying how much longer can this go before we have to find a way to step in . David many thanks to Isaac Boltansky of Compass Point research and trading. From new york, this is bloomberg. David you are watching balance of power. Im david westin. A sea of red on wall street. Deep in that sea of red are generic drugmakers mylan and tempo. This is not good. What is going on . Kailey senator Bernie Sanders and representative Elijah Cummings writing a letter to these companies accusing them of obstruction, saying they refuse to buy the materials on their pricing that were requested. The companies have denied these allegations, but this is renewing of 2014 federal probe in addition to state lawsuits, doj investigation all surrounding pricefixing by these drugmakers saying they get together to keep prices high. This is just another one of these stocks that have been pressure for several years. , their see at gtv performance relative to the broader pharmaceutical sector and this is adding to headwinds. All of this scrutiny to washington. David also involved in the opioid crisis, which is not good, either. Many thanks to kailey leinz. Coming up, more on the market selloff we are covering all our long. All hour long. From new york, this is bloomberg. From the couldnt be prouders to the wait did we just winners. Everyone uses their phone differently. Thats why Xfinity Mobile lets you design your own data. Now you can share it between lines. Mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. Its a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you preorder a new samsung note. Click, call or visit a store today. David this is balance of power, im david westin. For first word news we go now to Mark Crumpton. New orleans is facing higher than normal risks of flooding as we and are the hurricane season. One concern is the mass of volume of water pushing against levies on a city that is mostly below sea level. The Mississippi River is over 11 feet this weekend. Right before Hurricane Katrina flooded in 2005 the river was seven feet lower than it is today. Planes and helicopters are flying over a major wildfire in greece, dropping water, burning through a protected nature preserve. Hundreds have been evacuated. Strong winds are fanning the flames, making it tough for firefighters to prevent the blaze from spreading. The Notre Dame Cathedral sparking new concerns, several stones fell from the vaulted ceiling of the landmark site when temperatures topped 108 degrees during last months heat wave, triggering a renewed push to stabilize the 12thcentury cathedral. Repair work has been suspended on leadries contamination. A planned a strike at Londons Heathrow airport has been suspended. The workers at europes Busiest Airport had planned to walk off the job for two days over trade disputes saying that the Union Representing security guards, firefighters and other workers is giving members more time to consider the Companies Offer of an 8 pay raise over two years. Global news, 24 hours per day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 100 20 countries. Im Mark Crumpton, this is bloomberg. David . David joe feinberg has affirmed that his agency is open to the possibility of breaking up big tech companies, saying its not ideal because its very messy, but if you have to, you have to. Guests fornow our todays edition of antitrust. Gst seems like the sec is fighting over these tech companies. First we heard that they were divided because of investigation , then the industry, now we hear that they are just looking at conduct and either one could be looking at both. I will say this about a breakup, it could be either one. They both have the ability to seek breakup as a remedy or go to court. It ends on what they are looking at. If it is a past acquisition like facebook instagram, believing it is anticompetitive, it will be the agency that reviews the transaction and cleared it in the beginning, ftc. So far in this administration i see more reticence by the ftc to take a challenge to the courts of they and the doj. In that respect i believe the doj may be more likely to see Something Like this. You have represented litigants, antitrust before, what does it do when different agencies have different approaches . We would like to have some clarity in the law. Its very confusing indeed. From a business perspective, it can be challenging when the rules are the game rules of the game are different depending on the agency. Here we have an unusual, unprecedented split on a number of issues. To the large hightech companies is going to be one, and i completely agree with jennifer, if the conduct, if the investigation is a broad conduct based investigation, then depending on the split they have between agencies, that one will take the lead. If they are looking at past , that agencyergers will go back to look at its own clearance. ,ut the split between agencies its discomfiting to say the least. We see that a lot more in san diego, the federal trade commission has been going after qualcomm. Are a long case, there lot of facts there. I dont want to take a hard position on either side but each agency disagrees on a fundamental issue. David i was going to raise qualcomm. You and i have talked about this in the past. If there is a substantive difference in terms of policy, thats different. Intervened in front of the court, disagreeing. And they still are, they recently filed another new a field looking for a stay on the remedy. We have had a real complete divergence between the agencies on that matter and it is about patents. Ip a company has thats necessary to practice some standard. They have their different views with respect to how it should be licensed. On the one side they believe its antitrust if it is about licensing rivals. On the other side doj thinks its a matter for contract law, not antitrust. On the same side of facts and circumstances its a fundamental difference on how it should be applied. David this is all pretty highprofile, but lets be frank, nothing is as high profile as the nfl. This is about your sunday pass for directv, this is serious business. [laughter] a lot more people are more concerned about that case than they are about the investigation of facebook or whatever. After all, facebook is free. Nfl, we pay hundreds of dollars to get the pass. Its a real issue affecting real thele and i bet much of viewing public cares about that issue deeply. We just had a decision from the ninth circuit. Interesting enough, justice stevens, who recently passed away, he had put this issue a side we thought, on how to apply antitrust laws to professional sports leagues, but it came back in the contact context of these broadcasting rights. Nfl at as a collective nfl as has exclusive rights. As a chargers fan, if you will, diego, tos fan in san give you an example, want to watch the giants in san diego question mark the only way to do it is to sign up for directv and this specific package. So he doesnt have an alternative, but more important, the giants dont have an alternative. Why cant they be able to say i cant license someone else Something Else to someone . Its about each of the clubs taking on the telecast rights to their own game and if they do that, they can license it anywhere they want to. Instead of purchasing directv to get the rest, you might see whats happening in college football, where you can access eight to 10 games per weekend. As a browns fan in new york, im very interested in this lawsuit david . Exactly, im not sure i trust you on this antitrust issue. [laughter] to both of thanks you. Coming up here, we are watching the markets. The fed and china, thats coming up next. This is bloomberg. David you are watching balance im david westin. 24 hours ago we watched Hong Kong Police enter the airport dressed in riot gear. As it happened, we spoke with kyle of Haven Capital who warned that the situation could get worse for the demonstrators. What we are going to see, closer to october 1, thats the 70th anniversary of the communist party, i think you will see the Chinese Military move in and brutalize these protesters. , bob hormats. Now bob, you have been in the state department. Its pretty striking to me when they say they will go in and brutalize protesters. Do you see that happening with beijing . Bob i think beijing would be very reluctant to do that. Its sure its true that october 1 is the anniversary of the founding of the peoples republic of china, thats very important, the communist party has been there a lot longer, but it is a very important day and i think that xi does not want to look weak at that point. Moving in, particularly moving large numbers of Liberation Army troops into hong kong is something i think he would very much like to avoid and i would dealthat carrie lam would with it or that the demonstrators would conclude that provoking china to the point of having the army come in would not be a good thing for hong kong in the near term and certainly not in the longer term. David literally as we were watching, President Trump talks about delaying the tariffs on chinese imports. One thing that we puzzled over, is it possible that those things are connected in the mind of resident xi . Does it make him more accommodative or tougher . Bob i think it makes him want to be tougher in the sense that he wants to look resolute in hong kong without, if you can avoid it, sending troops in. Resolute in to be dealing with the United States on trade, and while he would like a deal, hes not going to make a deal with the u. S. At any price. He doesnt want what the chinese frequently call unfair agreements. He will want to make a deal, but if the terms are difficult in terms of chinese domestic politics and Party Politics internally, he wont peel pressed to make a deal and come close to october 1 he will be more resolute in not giving in to american pressure if it doesnt serve a substantial amount of chinese interest. David as you know, yesterday equity markets in the u. S. Responded almost immediately to these tariffs. Today, not so much. The bond market started going down. We have seen whats going on with the equity markets. Who is right about this . How strong of a signal is it to say that a trade resolution is on the horizon . Bob none. The fact that it bought more time for a trade agreement, but it was done for, what the president decided to do was suspended the imposition of 160 billion in tariffs on goods. Why did he do it . One can say that maybe it is a dovish signal to china, but it really was a dovish signal to the American Consumer. That is he did not want a lot of christmas goods, cell phones, electronic equipment, toys, to be subject to a 10 additional tariff. So, he postponed on a lot of things until the middle part of december. But he did do something that could be interpreted as dovish, he recognized that it is americans who pay the tariff. If he is watching the American Consumer and there is a dovish ,ignal, its that he recognizes doesnt say, but recognizes the pay that American Consumers the tariff and he didnt want them to pay on the eve of christmas. David he did say he was trying to do this to protect christmas shoppers, meaning they would have to pay otherwise. Bob a substantial portion thereof. Without saying that they pay the terrace, which is something he has always said they dont, in effect its saying they do because whilst with the price go up . Hes trying to protect American Consumers against the tariff between now and christmas. Traditionally, the calm that we have had in markets but we now we have President Trump tweeting saying tremendous amounts of money pouring into the United States, people want safety. This ae is try to make safe harbor in a troubled world . Bob that part is true, which is why its very difficult flip around the inverted yield curve. Anytime there is turmoil, then a lot of Foreign Investors put their money into american bonds and it pushes the yield on the 10 year, the fiveyear, the twoyear down. Even as the fed lowers rates, it is a contest between the fed trying to lower rates if it continues to do that, decides to do that, foreigners coming in and pushing yields on longerterm maturities down further. So, getting the yield curve on inverted is a complicated thing in this environment. It may be an indicator of recession, i got a chart here on probability of recession that has gone up 30 for the first , 2008, and it7 has never gone above 31 since 19 627 without there being a recession. How worried should we be about recession at this point . Bob i think there are a number of signals that indicate a slowing economy for sure, but looking at the yield curve you have to look at what is happening domestically. There is some signal that the economy is weakening. You have to go to the point we were just discussing. A lot of what is pushing yields down for the twoyear, five year, 10 year, is a lot of foreign money coming in. Ironically, the more there is talk of a trade war or a currency war, the talk that we wont be able to resolve these trade issues, foreign money gets nervous and comes into the american treasury market. You are a Senior International economist but also a diplomat. You know your way around the state department. The secretary of state might be considering running for senate in kansas. Talking about the politics of that, the question for the state department, do you have a sense how big of a loss would mike pompeo be if he stepped down as secretary of state . Bob whether one agrees or disagrees, he is the president s man and he carries out the president s policies. There are some of those that i find very troubling. But he has done a good job compared to his predecessor, who took not a very great deal of interest in the state department. The morale went down. Morale among officials now is considerably higher. He listens, he fills a lot of the jobs that were unfilled under tillerson. I would think that the morale in the state department is good. A lot of people have access to him, feel they can interact with him in an effective way. He does seem to have good relations with the president , important for the secretary of state. Foreign governments, even if they dont like what the secretary of state is saying, they want to know that he represents the president so that they can make their judgments. If there is a gap, they dont know whats going on, it causes a lot of confusion. David on the subject of china, was it inevitable question mark Graham Allison has written about the fact that we have a number two power over taking a number one power. Was it inevitable question mark President Trump, should he get more credit for taking on this issue . Ab there certainly were number of issues about to boil over even before President Trump came into office. There was a lot of pressure from American Business on the government. Including the obama administration, cyber, all kinds of things. Issues were beginning to become more intense. The management of this conflict has been very, very complicated. The use of tariffs, while it caused people to pay more attention to it, has not necessarily achieved any results and there has been a lot of domestic disruption as a result of it. By paying attention to it, the question is do we now have a path to resolve it in or it . Or are we pushing the chinese to the point where their nationalism begins to kick in and they decide well, we are under pressure but we are not going to deal with a lot of the terms america wants because they cause domestic lyrical pressures in china and there is a lot of resistance in china. You can read it as not even being close to that. Is the critical question. Thank you so much, bob. Coming up, finding a Silver Lining in the market selloff. Our panel is next. This is bloomberg. Thisbalance of power. Balance of power the nasdaq is close to a 3 decline. Joining us now is sara pozner and romaine bostick. Sarah, tell us about the yield curve, there is a big question about whether we should be paying intention to the inversion or the yield on the 30. Worrisome are signals, you could say, and the reaction in the stock market has markets spooked. We have seen erratic reactions all month long. S p,ng at the price in the it ranks into the price of february and january of last year, but on the yield curve most people are pointing to the fact that it is a reliable indicator of recession but more difficult is the timing, especially if you try to intertwine it with how assets react. Stocks typically have a bit of time, but its difficult. Bank of america found that stocks eke two months to two years out, so its difficult to make the decision about staying in, riding it out, or getting more defensive. Of this forsense me. If you look at the dividend yield and compare it with the 10 year, thats a fair amount more money on the dividend stocks. Wire and people going into stocks . Romaine people are not buying the growth story. When you talk about how long it takes for that kind of recession to appear, keep in mind, traders have been positioning themselves on this for months now. Taking a look at the trend line, we are near record levels but have not broken through them. It has been a tight range for most of the year. Looking at the 200 day average, its a flat line. You typically want to see a two hundred Day Moving Average sloping upwards, giving you an idea of where the trend is going. Thats about as parallel of a line that you are going to get. The market is indecisive right now. They look at stocks, they see somebargains, see cheapness, but they are not sold on the longterm growth story, moving out of cyclicals and longer duration treasuries like a third year. David so, sarah, what could break the fever . Sarah most people i have been speaking with feel good right now, saying that they are putting money to work. Even if it means that a recession is potentially in the cards 12 to 18 months out, you see what bank of america calls the last gasp rally. What that means is that even in the lead up to a potential recession, a lead up to a stock equities docally pretty well. Looking at the life of the financial crisis, it was a 25 rally from the yield inverting to the time that it heat a year and a half later. Interestingly enough even though the market is freaking out right now, a lot of people remain confident. Crazy, lastgasp n investor, if i am a but if im a traitor . Romaine it gives you a sense of how they feel about the market and the economy. It also is an interesting read on how they feel about the Federal Reserve and Central Banks in their ability to stem a recession. This is where a lot of the fear is coming into the play. Into play. Theres not a lot of confidence that Central Banks can ward it off. Elerian said that it was dangerous if the fed did too much too soon. Thank you very much, sara, romain. Coming up, special coverage of the markets with vonnie quinn. The nasdaq is down now 3 . At comcast, we didnt build the nations largest gigspeed network just to make businesses run faster. We built it to help them go beyond. Because beyond risk. Welcome to the neighborhood, guys. There is reward. Beyond work and life. Who else could he be . There is the moment. Beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Scarlett im scarlet fu, this. S etf iq panic buying up bonds, evidence of political unrest fueling global recession fears. The perils of passive investing, of vanguard Sustainable Fund messes up bigtime. A setback for crypto, the sec punts
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.