July is here. The fomc has signaled rate cuts may be coming. Clevelands fed president shares exclusive insights on the policy outlook. I think the fed funds rate is about at neutral right now. Plus, expert perspective on what is ahead for the global economy. I think the market is getting a little bit greedy in terms of rate cuts. It is all straight ahead on bloomberg best. Viviana hello and welcome. This is bloomberg best, your weekly review of the most important Business News, analysis, and interviews from Bloomberg Television around the world. The week began on a note of optimism after president s trump and xi met at the g20 summit and agreed to restart trade talks. The u. S. And china have agreed to a trade truce and say they will revive stalled negotiations after talks on the sidelines of the g20 summit in japan. President trump says he will also scaledback restrictions on Chinese Technology giant huawei. The president saying the u. S. Is winning the trade war and that he will hold off additional tariffs. Is it all kinetic, or is something going in the right direction . I think we are moving in a bit of a positive situation. Will it hold . Thats the one milliondollar question, right . More than 1 million. Steve mnuchin talking about 90 of the deal is done, is always the last 10 . Will it hold . Who knows . How successful was the weekend for president xi and all of china . The potential concession on huawei was more than a lot of people expected. Markets in china really like it. They are up the most in two months. Did the president cheat in osaka . What he gave up is not known. Those talks will drag on for weeks if not months before we know what the u. S. Has given p. The u. S. Has added more eu products to a list of goods that could be hit with tariffs as part of the longrunning dispute over subsidies paid to airbus. This is not a new story, of course. How significant are these potential tariffs, and why are they being identified now . They are quite significant, potentially. First of all, 4 billion now, but there has already been 21 billion the u. S. Has identified reviously. Were talking 25 billion in tariffs, which starts to add up. This comes in retaliation for european subsidies to irbus. European Union Leaders have reached an agreement on some jobs at the european parliament. Imf chief Christine Lagarde will be nominated to the european. We have what . About 20 hours of talks, no decision. Finally, we have more clarity. A record 20 hours and three days of trying to figure out who will do what appeared Christine Lagarde, the head of the imf, will be nominated to replace mario draghi at the European Central bank. This is really the big job that investors had kept an eye n. The top of the european commission, which is the other holy grail of european politics, is a german, who currently serves as defense minister in the Angela Merkel government. It is breathtaking. It has the benefit of surprise, and it elevates the ecb sweepstakes above these issues of does he support qe or not, and where does the finnish guy stand . Should a bank of france governor the given the role again . For those who think decisionmaking in the eu has become hopelessly sporadic, its a really great set. Dow jones at a record close. S p at a record close. Nasdaq composite and nasdaq 100 at a record close. All these records the s p, the dow, the nasdaq. What does it indicate . Im usually also focused on the technical aspect of the market, but the issue right here is confidence. That Consumer Confidence report that came out late last week showed a continued rollover in some of the key Conference Board measures. My concern is that a setback in the market that could be enough to crush confidence for good. I think the stock market will have a big say as to if this economy lapses into recession over the next six to 12 onths. U. S. President donald trump moving the euro and yuan a little bit after tweeting in part, china and europe playing a big currency manipulation game and pumping money into their system in order to compete with the u. S. The president clearly has a bee in his bonnet about currencies. He sees the dollar as overvalued. Is it . Do you think the currency market should expect more . Donald trump is accusing everyone else of currency manipulation, and its exactly what he is doing himself. In truth, everyone plays this game. The ecb claims it does not look at the effects, but absolutely they do. They must be worried. If dollareuro rose to 1. 25, the european economy, which is nearing recession would certainly tip into it. Is the dollar overvalued . I think it probably is, and the Federal Reserve are going to cut rates. We will get a weaker dollar which will result in all sorts of conditions at the ecb, which is why they are responding already with talk about cutting the bonds rate even further. U. S. Employment has been the bedrock of the economy, but may numbers were disappointing, which puts more focus on what happened in june with expectations for a bounce back but still a somewhat slowing pace of jobs growth. 224,000 jobs were created in june, well above consensus and a big rebound from may, which was revised even lower. It looks like rate cuts are off the table. Bond rate going up for quote, unquote, the right reasons. A lot of other data has been softening and even with this number as you look at the trend, it is still for slightly slower job growth. When you look at the pace of the economy, wages times the number of jobs times the amount of hours worked, that is still downward trajectory. What is the case for a rate cut after this labor Market Report . When 10year treasury paper is trading well below the fed funds rate or the threemonth Treasury Bill rate, i think that is a message to the fed that their target rate is too high, frankly. I think they are looking at that. Im not sure that our views are much different than the feds views. I do not know when they will act. They are an independent agency. Hat is my basic point. This is not so much about stimulus as putting more balance into the financial ector and the yield curve. If we had a fed that would lower interest rates, it would be like a rocket ship, but we dont have a fed that knows what they are doing, so it is one of those little things. Viviana still ahead, trade talk with peter navarro, a key policy voice within the white house. Plus, an exclusive conversation with clevelands fed president. Up next, opec and its allies will keep oil outputs lower for longer as russia takes a leading role in the bloc. This is bloomberg. Viviana this is bloomberg best. Lets continue our global tour of the weeks top business stories. In hong kong, massive protest against the government continued. Tensions escalated. New protests hit hong kong today as chief executive carrie lam commemorated the anniversary of andover, a handover to china. Protesters have gained entry and are roaming the lobby and the main chamber with no police or security to be seen. On the periphery, we have protesters dismantling steel gates and taking Construction Materials to wrestle through the crowd. Demonstrators smashing their way into the Legislative Council building. What is the significance . Protesters prepared for the police against a backdrop of ncreased activity. Organizers of the official july 1 rally in a joint statement with Lawmakers Said they had reached out to chief executive carrie lam to engage in a dialogue, a request she had reportedly rejected, so they say she is responsible for the events today and she should be held in the public view to reach a conclusion when it comes to responding to the five demands that are key to the protest today. Hong kongs embattled leader condemning leaders who stormed the legislative building as protests against the government escalated rapidly. This is something we should seriously condemn. Nothing is more important than the rule of law in hong kong. We had two things going on n hong kong, a peaceful protest, yet at the same time, you had a much more Aggressive Group of protesters who were bashing down the windows of the Legislative Council. Then at around 9 00, police fell back, which allowed no those protesters to flood inside the building where they ransacked council and basically trashed the place. Around midnight, the police came back and fired tear gas and effectively cleared the area. Final question, though, why did the police pullback . What were their tactics . It will be a couple of days before we find out what happens to public opinion. Opec agreeing to extend production cuts. Into snenks year, nine months. Saudis and russians once again pulling all the strings. This move was really baked into the markets, considering that even in june and they sat side by side, they talked about the need for further cooperation. He said to me a rollover is in the bag, they just into workout need to work out the logistics. The president in osaka saying a deal is coming, and they just need to work out logistics. Communications are coming from high levels, the leaderships of these countries, and not even from an opec member. Remember, russia is part of the opec plus group. Our reporters as they have finished their takeover of opec and putin is the absolute oil zar now. Oil sliding to the worst loss that the slowdown may overcut opecs plan to stabilize with the extension. We are down about 5 on w. T. I. Now. That does not seem like an endorsement of what opec was attempting to pull off. The Russian Oil Minister came out of the meeting saying their goal today was to avoid volatility. That goal was not achieved given this market reaction. It is probably one of the worst days we have seen for some time. I was looking at the numbers before i came over. The last two meetings have been up 2 or 3 , and we were wondering if this has been the worst reaction since the 2014 meeting went opec famously said, go ahead and produce whatever you want, we dont care in the face of lower oil prices. Viviana this growing concern the Nuclear Treaty with iran is about to collapse. President trump yesterday want tehran not to step up in richmond. Its enrichment. He told iran to be careful with threats because they can come back to bite you. The comments come after president rouhani said the Islamic Republic with step up enrichment if they did not receive economic aid by sunday. Should we take this a serious threat or if youre the president , what do you do . This is donald trump threatening iran in response to irans threat. Clearly, tehran wants to push things right now, being it attacks in the persian gulf or stepping up uranium enrichment, but even as donald trump goes from saying i want to have talks to threatening action, it is clear he does not want a conflict coming up. That said, iran is telling europe it needs to give conomic guarantees, so that is something to watch out for. A seizure of a shipachyov by braulter led to a diplomatic crisis. It was carrying oil to syria in violation ofeuropean and u. S. Sanctions was targeted off the coast of gibraltar. The british are saying this was seized because they were shipping this oil to syria in violation of sanctions from the u. S. And european countries. Those sanctions have been ramping up over the past few years, particularly over the last year as the u. S. Left that nuclear agreement, but at this point, iran is not happy about this action. The british are standing by it and spain is not happy as well saying thats an area they control. President trump became the first sitting u. S. Leader to set foot in north korea. He met kim jongun at the Demilitarized Zone in a hastily arranged photo opportunity. How significant is this between the President Trump and kim . It was full of symbolism. As you mentioned, the first sitting president to step onto north korean soil. At first we thought it was going to be a twominute handshake, as trump had mentioned, but it ended up being a more bilateral meeting. A lot of questions what this means, was it a photo opportunity for both sides or is it theatrics going on or can we restart negotiations once again . The latest reading of the chinese economy shows continuing fragility and the need for a trade deal with the united states. Manufacturing pmi data, 49. 4 last month, slightly weaker than forecast, and highlights the effects of the trade war. How much of the slowdown that we saw was a direct consequence of the trade war . We definitely saw that within the index that new export orders did slow as well, so that would be partly the impact of the u. S. China trade war, but also we have global trade slowing generally, so that impacted new export orders. Interestingly, we also saw that the jobs numbers within that index were also quite soft. That will be a bit of a concern for the domestic authorities. We will likely see a step up in trying to support domestic ctivities. Facing the increased protectionism. President trump has announced his latest nomination to the fed board. He named st. Louis official Christopher Waller as his next pick. Waller was previously a professor of economics at notre dame university. Also backing judy shelton from the bank of reconstruction and development. Chris waller from the st. Louis fed i wonder if this is not laying the grounds for the administration to continue pushing towards jim bullard coming on as the fed chair. Certainly, they have had some outreach to him, and the president is not happy with jay powells approach to policy. Maybe this is laying the groundwork. We will see how that pans out. It is an interesting effort by the president to definitely politicize the fed, particularly when you see what judy shelton said about her omination yesterday. Shelton put out a statement that said, the president really gets it. His progrowth economic agenda should not be undermined by wrongheaded phillips curve thinking that punishes Economic Growth and subverts continued gains. She is going to go into that board room defending the president. How could the bed justify a cut with those numbers . The economy is on good footing. This was a Favorable Development that shows more people are entering the workforce. Curveversion of the yield is a pesky problem. The markets are signaling policy tightening has been overdone. The fed it should recalibrate accordingly. They have to walk a fine line of not entering a sustained easing cycle which will squander their ammunition. If they give the market what it wants, it will call for a lot more. These data, jay powell will say yes, that using is coming, not at the end of the month. We will hold out until september when the Balance Sheet has run its court. Course. That was an exclusive interview. She shed light on what the committee is watching as it ponders its next move. I think we need to keep an eye on inflation data. Is thatw, my forecast inflation will move gradually back to 2 . Data, it willr take longer to do that. My mosthave that its likely outcome. About trend in inflation. Factors,structural things like businesses with models of how they are competing with one another. Are inuctural factors line as well. Can you say this is neutral . As an economy dictates where the radius, we need to move the rate with it. Instead of being a Sustainable Growth scenario, we are entering a phase where its a weaker scenario. Be one reason to move the policy rate. There is not enough evidence to suggest its going. I want to see more evidence before we get to that point. Coming up, more news on Monetary Policy with rate positions from sweden and the reserve bank of australia. We will revisit more of the compelling conversations. Peter navarro advises the president on trade. The u. S. And china made plenty of progress. We havent exchange of views goingrong commitment to back to the negotiating table. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to bloomberg best. Anticipation of the u. S. China trade deal, as well as dovish Monetary Policy around the world, help to bolster Global Markets and economies in the first half of 2019. This week, many guests on Bloomberg Television discussed the factors i could sustain or. Advisor of elians, who spoke with Jonathan Ferro about u. S. Growth and the fed. The one thing that economies are going back and trying to figure out is do we have such deep structural changes in the economy that we can run this economy at high growth and low inflation . That is critical for the fed as well. Theres a lot of work to be done in terms of understanding the new structure of the economy. Chairman powell exclusively communicating this idea that an ounce of protection is worth a pound of cure. That doesnt sound like a man whos about to cut rates. Where do you see this playing out . Im baffled by this notion that an insurance cut is 100 basis points. Its not 100 basis points for two reasons. One is you dont want to usable your ammunition now. Secondly if you really need to cut by 100 basis points, it is well beyond insurance, there is something wrong with the economy. The marketplace i think has gone too far, but that is the history of the market. The fed gives a little in the market pushes it even more, and i think the market is getting a little bit greedy in terms of rate cuts. I would look 2550 over the next 12 months, not 100. We have a global battle between the u. S. And china about who will be controlling the industry of the future. There is a cold war between the u. S. And china and it is not going to be easy to find a solution, and the consequences of this trade and tech war the , beginning of deglobalization, organization, the decoupling of global economies. It will lead to disruption by next year. There will be a global recession. Are we seeing signs of it already . I refer to data on manufacturing globally. They do see the slowdown in some countries. You see some of that spreading into the Service Economy and on top of that, global trade thats also falling quite rapidly. How bad does it get before it improves . Do they improve . My baseline is one in which there will be a trade impact war between the u. S. And china. Manufacturing is in recession already. It is affecting services, the tech sector is in slow down, and even with policy uncertainty, there is an option about waiting. In europe, asia, the middle east you stop doing investment. Theres already been a collapse and once it is down Industrial Production is down and you have the beginning of a global recession that starts in tech, then in manufacturing, then goods and services. We are seeing it in the data. Opec and its allies presented a united front this week. They agreed to extend production limits for another nine months. They also adopted a charter that solidifies the opec plus coalition. But iran faces unique pressures. Its oil exports have plunged following u. S. Sanctions. Irans oil minister discussed the impact of these sanctions in an exclusive interview with bloombergs annmarie hordern. It has a negative impact on our economy when it doesnt meet that, we dont resist against this unfair, illegal, poor sanctions against iran from the united states. We are working day and night to find ways to find the sanctions and export levels. Theres reports that you were still selling to china and even europe. I know you cant name names. But can you confirm you are still selling to some customers . I cannot say more. The Oil Market Wants to know how much if at all iranian oil is still leaving the shores and borders of iran. There are some statistics out there i know. It is the right of all customers and producers to know. But these markets are manipulated by the united states. This is the difficulty imposed against us by the united states, that oblige me not to say anything for securing the benefit of my nation. As the investors cope with the volatility of global trade policy, we got insight from inside the white house. Peter navarro is the assistant to the president for traded manufacturing policy. He sat in on the talks between President Trump and xi on wednesday, and on wednesday described them to david westin. What i saw was great personal chemistry between the two president s. We had a Frank Exchange of views and a strong, strong commitment to going back to the negotiating table. Robert lighthizer is leading these negotiations and as we speak plans are being made to reengage with the chinese both in china and here in the united states. What we prefer to do always is negotiate behind closed doors in good faith and not in the newspapers. But is it realistic to get china to make any accommodation at all on the base of the way it structures its economy . Thats the core of the objections its a topdown economy with subsidies and various special arrangements between the government is it realistic to have any movement on that at all . Of course it is, and we had a 150 page plus agreement that dealt with the seven structural issues that we are trying to resolve, including forst technology transfer, electoral property theft, the state owned enterprises. There is a recognition within china, particularly with reformers like the ones leading the negotiations that in order for china in the chinese economy to get to the next leg of growth and prosperity they need to make these fundamental structural reforms. Theres will in china to move to that and from an investors point of view i think this is very bullish. This will take some time, as the president has said he wants to get this right, and in the meantime, in the short run over the next month or two, the two things from the investors point of view that are salient are whether we passed the u. S. Mexicocanada agreement, and whether the fed cuts interest rates. On the usmca, if you look at what that will do, it is worth pointing that gdp growth, half a million jobs, 75,000 jobs in the auto sector, it modernizes the agreement into the Digital Economy and also services which are very strong. Those of the kinds of things i think investors should look at, as chinese negotiations go on and relative stability. You are watching bloomberg best. Lets resume our roundup of the weeks top news and business in finance. The onagain offagain journey to a public listing for the worlds most Profitable Company appears to be on again. Saudi aramco moving forward with preparations for its mag mega ipo months after pausing plans to go public. The oil giant recently held a select group of Investment Banks to discuss potential roles. Why now . I think now that saudi aramco has gotten the bond offering that they did earlier on this year, one of the biggest and most successful Bond Offerings in history, i think the demand appetite for the market has given them some confidence to try and go ahead with the ipo and try to get that process going again, and the ipo is a key part of what the country as a whole is committed to as part of this process of opening up to Foreign Investors and reform the country and wean itself away from oil. It is viewed as strategically important that this deal goes ahead. In a victory for beijing, President Trump says he would hold off on any additional chinese tariffs, for now, and will relax his administrations ban on huawei. With this be a repeat of what happened last year with cte . Do we have any idea what President Trump means when he says he will give some relief to this company . It was quite a surprise to see trump come out and say after the administration had been complaining about it as a National Security risk, that helps beijing with spying, to them to come out and say they would allow American Companies to resume sales of equipment what he didnt say is exactly what that means for all these companies. He said we will allow American Companies to resume sales except with the National Security concerns. This weekend you so larry kudlow, President Trumps advisor, give a little more detail on this. He says the plan is to keep them on the enemies list that prohibits them from selling to americans, but grant more licenses. They can go to the commerce department, find out whether they can supply chips or software or other kinds of components the company needs. It is not clear how permissive the department will be in granting those licenses, but the assumption is that they will begin to allow some greater numbers. Samsung profits topped secondquarter estimates with a smaller than expected drop in operating income after a oneoff gain in its display division. Despite that lukewarm demand when it came to memory chips and smartphones, which raised concerns among analysts, apart from this one time gain, was there any surprise . Surprisingly, the operating profits showed that samsung might report secondquarter operating profits later this month with five point trillion thats below the Market Expectations by a large margin. I think that has come from a chip industry downturn, and surprisingly smartphone sales were not good. The galaxy s 10 lost steam already. It hurt profits as well. Australias reserve bank cut the official bench right to a record low of 1 in a bid to boost blockbuster growth and weakening jobs market. The governor says he will pause to gauge the impact of the cuts and says hes prepared to adjust rates again if needed. I think in this case they had a reassessment and they realized that they need to get unemployment quite a bit lower. I think in this case they realized that they need to get that cash rate lower and once they have made that decision they can be very pragmatic about making the moves. He has said he will watch how things will evolve but im not sure that will necessarily mean they dont move in august. We have a decision to break, leaving the key rates unchanged at 0. 25 . The focus is on the forecast and what they plan to do. Some have been sick testing that suggesting that maybe they had missed the chance to further normalize policy and hike rates. Right now, inflation is on target, inflationary expectations are close to 2 . Unemployment is low and growth is fairly good. From that angle we are in a good position when it comes to deviating what major Central Banks in the world will do. Automakers reporting sales for june and the second quarter. Is demand softening, stabilizing, or picking up . It is softening. This is a continued narrative weve seen all year. General motors off 1. 5 for the quarter. Even fiat chrysler, which had an incredible month with the ram pickup truck, it is very important. Consumers arent running away from showrooms but auto stocks have struggled. Tesla jumped in late trade thanks to a record fourthquarter delivery. The company handed over 95,000 vehicles in the second quarter, easily beating forecasts. Was elon musk right . There was no reason to be concerned about demand . On the model 3, maybe. The model s and model x, you still have reason to be concerned. This was the second worst showing on their side since 2016 but you have to handed to them on the model three side. They far and away exceeded even all the cars they delivered in the First Quarter combined. This is really a show of the amount of demand there is for this car outside the u. S. This is the first full quarter in which they were delivering these cars in china and europe. That suggests there will be sustained power for this car even though there is incentive as of january 1 to less than 2000. A™ in that regard. There will be less of the tailwind in that regard. Brookfield is expanding its portfolio of real companies, and they agreed to buy them for about 6. 3 billion, a 40 premium from march 8. Before Bloomberg News reported the Railroad Operator was exploring it. This seems pretty rich for a Railroad Company that could be described as somewhat niche. It is, rich, but then again, railroads are very profitable, and this one have record cash flow last year. Sales have been growing at a 17 clip since it had its ipo in 1996. Its a rich property for a rich price. Broadcom is said to be in advanced talks to buy symantec. Shares fell after hours while symantec stirs why are they doing this . When you look at broadcom, last year they acquired 4 billion in revenue, and it is mostly coming from that acquisition, and you can see the playbook. At least it has exposure to cybersecurity, which is a pretty attractive market for any technology company. Essentially they are trying to buy another 4 billion in revenue with 3 growth. Ab invev could surpass uber as the biggest chair offering this year, after the terms for its Hong Kong Ipo could raise up to 9. 8 billion last week. Why are they doing this . I assume because they have so much money after that massive spending campaign theyve had over the last two years. Remember, three years ago over the summer when they embarked on this massive transaction, that was quite something. Now they have to pay down debt. They are going to undertake one of the biggest ipos, biggest so far this year, even topping uber. Lets see how it plays out over the next few weeks, but definitely the main reason they are doing it is to reduce that pile. Deutsche bank has reportedly talked to regulators about lowering its capital cushion, away for the bank to help finance and impending restructuring. Is this a desperate move by Deutsche Bank . It is certainly something, to avoid a capital increase. It doesnt want to raise capital from investors because share prices are superlow, and investors are frustrated. It would be a hard fight. So they have to come up with alternatives to raising that capital and lowering the capital buffer is a way to do that. To be fair, Deutsche Bank in comparison to many european peers has a relatively high capital cushion, so it does seem like a plausible way to do this. It is going to be a huge weekend for Deutsche Bank. The board will decide on a Restructuring Plan, which includes sweeping job cuts. The first to go, Investment Bank had darth ritchie. He will be leaving by mutual agreement. What can we read into him going . What does that tell us about the shape of these transformational moves . They are trying to do a lot at the same time. He will be taking over as head of the Investment Bank as they are doing this Restructuring Plan but the bank has not said anything about how deep these cuts will go, but it does say they will not taken a new head of the Investment Bank. We heard about very deep cuts throughout the bank. They do have a huge fixed income franchise and we will see how much of that they keep. You look at this function, the past month or so, we have been seeing a strengthening yen. But when you look at it compared to other g10 currencies, it has underperformed. In some sense it looks like people want to be looking at other asset classes. I want to show you the terminal function, its the correlation over the last 60 days between oil and to your breakevens, sitting at around. 7. Its a pretty high correlation. About 30,000 functions are on the bloomberg. We enjoy showing you our favorites on Bloomberg Television maybe they will , become your favorites. Heres another function you will find useful. It will take you to our quick takes. That is where you can get important context and fast insight into timely topics. Heres a quick take from this week. Thanks to the smartphone, going from a to b has gotten so easy, it has some urban dwellers wondering why bother having a car when you can get where you want at the press of a button . Its an idea known as mobility as a service, or traveler say goodbye to their own cars and sign up instead for transportation ondemand, booked through their smartphones. Imagine, for instance, a commuting plan that charges by the mile, or through monthly fee, like netflix. The demise of car ownership, at least in the worlds growing urban centers, is a prospect that the worlds automakers are getting ready for, but it is not going to happen right away. A major switch to subscription transportation requires two things to fall into place. The first is already well underway the explosion of ridehailing apps like lyft, grab, and kareem. The second isnt quite there yet. Thats driverless cars. Removing the human from behind the wheel is the cost of the slashes the cost of the taxi ride. That will make mobility as a service so cheap in many places it wont make Financial Sense to own a car anymore. A typical ride today costs 2 3 per mile, but a robo taxi could cost is less than . 70 per mile. Elon musk reckons he can lower that to . 18 per mile. That will turbocharge demand for mobility as a service, which is destined to be, 10 trillion business, according to ford motor company. That is why tech giants like google and apple are developing their own self driving systems to take on the worlds leading automakers, including volkswagen, general motors, ford, and toyota. Eventually, a single smart app could connect us to a web of options. Robotech sees, selfdriving shuttles, subways, bikes, and electric scooters that will whisk us through congested megacities. Someday, urban dwellers may have to spend a day in the country to catch a glimpse of that 20th century show pony known as a private car. That was just one of the many quick takes you cam find on the bloomberg. You can also find them on bloomberg. Com with all the betas latest Business News and analysis 24 hours a day. That will be a for bloomberg best this week. This is bloomberg. Thehey are the future of is yen asean. It is quick, it is fast. Third han one of a more than a third are aged between 15 and 34. What better than one of the . Ounger populations creating popular taste desecrating population, driving change. Lifestyles and leadership