Downturn because we could not stand an economic downturn. We would be at each others throats. Scarlet apple ceo to tim cook says we ought to play a wrote role in civic leadership. The corealways been at of changing the world and you cant change the world if you are ignoring the world. Scarlet suddenly everyone has an opinion on bitcoin. It ought to be outlawed. It doesnt serve any useful we are in the and of this resolution. Scarlet its all straight ahead on this special edition of bloomberg best. Scarlet hello and welcome, im scarlet fu on this special edition of louvered best. With a tech at 2017 in the americas by revisiting interviews with newsmakers, policymakers, and leading business makers and finance. Start with the eggnog ration of donald trump, the first president to reach and operation of donald trump, the first president to reach without any logical background. It certainly resonated with many financial industry as well as his cabinet selections, many coming from business and wall street. Within his first 100 days, Francine Lacqua sat down with chase ceo jamie dimon. Their conversation after the air of anticipation for investors. What does President Trump and his registration going to do for the u. S. Economy . Look at the policies. Look at the people on the ground. They are top professionals in the military, secretary of state, secretary of treasury, serious people with deep knowledge and experience. There admission is to have a growth agenda, reducing corporate taxes, building better infrastructure we definitely need, reducing the Regulatory Regime that will hold back growth. Its good for all americans. Middleclass, low pay, job creation. Its a jumped more than it has ever jumped because of the progrowth agenda. Give any doubt he will follow through . The republicans have a house, they have the senate, they have 30 plus in the governorships. They have a better chance of getting those things done. I dont have an exact timetable. They have to recover from positive growth and probusiness is there, but im remember, wantsmocrats everyone good infrastructure. Republicans dont want to waste money, not because they are against bridges and tunnels and roads. They want to recalibrate it and make sure it is conducive to growth and doesnt hurt Small Business and stuff like that. What is the one question you get asked the most by your client . Is it on trump or on china . How come you wont take our deposits . These are investing clients. A lot of research and execution. Its mostly around the new administration. Thats traditional. Theres a change in leadership. People are going to be concerned, interested, etc. Around the world its trump. At lunch, i said what do you want to talk about . Tont yet to talk trump until the seventh question. The first was a clash of civilization, one about regulatory, inclusive capitalism, eggs like that. There are concerned that it will invest their investment . They are thinking longterm. Jobtalism can do a better of creating jobs, middle ages, helping skills, helping lower wages. We have a great new ceo. They need to promote whats good for all americans including expanding things like the tax credit. Advanced. Is socially they give medical benefits, they train the people. We could do better job on policies better for the communities. Thats true in europe, the note states, and it cant be done with that the United States, and it cant be done without business. This was the trend of that was before. Did President Trump waken the animal spirit . It seems hes awakened the animal spirits. Weve never had such a probusiness president since the founding fathers. True, butre thats consumer confidence, Small Business confidence all skyrocketed because its a growth agenda. Will it be difficult to implement . You look at a lot of of the industries, we sell record highs. How much of what is expected is priced in . Even if he doesnt deliver a tiny bit, is it going to deliver . Stocks went up rationally because of the growth agenda. Now they have to do it. I think he will get it done, but it will take time. The press will talk about the tax scheme and infrastructure scheme. Of ity get even part done, it will be good for growth, good for jobs. Im confident he will get that done. Will he get it right, the regulation for wall street banks . I hope so. I heard people say we have to throw out nobodys asking for that. We want to look at those things. The things that need to be recalibrated, coordinated. There are too many people involved in mortgages. This is in lower paid, firsttime buyers, Small Business owners. We need to do it for the sake of all people. Nobody can rationally say it was coordinated. What are the unintended consequences and giving it the economy going faster . If you dont have a healthy Financial System, you wont have a healthy economy. Keep that in mind. Its good for the citizens of the country. Its not good for the financial players. Isaging the Financial System about idea if you want jobs or growth. To think this dialogue with the Trump Administration is e . Althy and constructive they should always have been. President obama spoke to ceos, too, but i prefer the collaboration will win. Fingerpointing wont. There are solutions to problems. What do you want the outcome to be and how do we get there . We should have people clapping together. I applaud his outreach and i applaud his probusiness. We try to take care of our people and our clients. We didnt need government help. We were trying to help people. To make sure we do our jobs helping grow. That was jamie dimon speaking in march about his expectations for the Trump Administration. One president ial decision in 2017 that could have Lasting Impact was the choice of chairman of the Federal Reserve. We will playback tom keenes interview with the parting fed vice chair Stanley Fischer, who spoke about the qualities they need going forward. You need someone who has the flexible the of mind to see that he or she needs to take a Different Group route. A conversation with brian moynihan, who let off steam. We dont have proprietary trading. Thats what were supposed to do and we are not doing it. Scarlet this is bloomberg. Scarlet this is a bloomberg best, im scarlet fu. 2017. To our roundup we have another exclusive conversation. In late august, we sat down with brian moynihan. The dow industrial was about to reach 22,000 for the First Time Ever and the most recent jobs report showed unemployment falling to a 15 year low. So we asked the head of americas number two bank to assess the economy beyond those numbers. Of all the indicators you keep tabs on as ceo, internal indicators, not the indicators we are talking about, not unemployment, gdp growth, which growth, the stuff only you can see inset bank of america. Whats going on under the surface . Whats green, full steam ahead . All of yourrt out thinking about the economies, you come down to the largest andomies, the u. S. Economy, two thirds is consumers. What are consumers spending on . They spend 30 billion to 50 billion on credit cards. Is that getting bigger . If thats getting bigger, people are spending more money. Its up 5 every year. Checks paid, cash out of the atms, wires, debit and credit cards, thats good. That means consumers are spending money. That includes cash coming out of the atms. Checksbetter than if drifting down. Consumers are spending, thats good. That means they have a job and they are confident spending. That means that will leave the economy. You saw them dress up Consumer Spending again and our numbers have shown can six in the consistently that they will be strong. They will be a little higher, not a lot higher, but a little higher than the other indicators you will see. A sense to meet you see signs that Economic Growth can accelerate beyond its current trajectory. In my hearing that right . , we have a series of policies they get paid more every year and they spend more every year. Its going to take more enthusiasm and more drive to get to 3 . That will come from policies of that will gear investing in the United States. For the rest of the world, you are seeing europe grow better, which is good, china maintained 6 plus job rate. In yet is going well and india is working his way up. Brian, the president made his pitch for tech reform in sprint cup, missouri today. , are youe you sit counting on any meaningful progrowth policy, legislation, reform from this a ministration . If so, what and when . Lets talk about tax reform and the need for it. We just moved our operations from europe to dublin. We have half the europe dublins half of what the u. S. Tax rate is. Dont ship money outside our country. 30 years ago, when people talked about tax reform, a Global Economy wasnt what it was. The was as much economic activity. There is now. I can get from materials, i can build a car and sell it at that the United States. 30 years ago, much of the demand was outside of the United States. A couple questions about regulation. The Treasury Department proposed regulatory regulations for your ranking. A lot can be a compost without congress. Secretary mnuchin can get done everything he wants to get done, what would it mean for your bottom line . It would be good. I dont have a number for you, but it will be good. , there arek about three or four things important whats going on. Specifically. Number one, the leadership agencies that have been proposed need to get through congress. Now the roles have been pulled back or rethought. Then there are rules that have to be changed. If you look across all those, what the secretary did was get input from investors, analysts, companies, advocates, professors. Heres a set of principles would have to fix. The key once for us would be capital, liquidity requirements, Technical Rules and capital, and allowing more access to our capital account when we have 20 billion. Let us put that back in the market so some of the else can use the capital because we dont need it to grow. Those are they important things to us. To other people, it might be trading oversight . Volcker is too complex. By everybodys admission. Can you make a straightforward execution . That is probably a good idea because you have five or six agencies working on it and they all know its too complex. How are they going to go about it . We have to figure out what we mean by that antiprinciples in place. We dont have proprietary trading. Thats what we are supposed to do and we are not doing it. As you probably know, the buy side is freaking out about the new european financial rules known as mifid ii. How big a deal is it for be of a . Its a rule change like all of these rule changes. It costs us money to implement and things like that. If you think about it, we have the number one Research Platform in the world six years and row. Im sure people will pay us for that. 80,000 a year . Im sure they will because thats how they will have to get it. With our customers and clients that do tens of millions of dollars of this stuff, to me, its not the Biggest Issue i would be worried about. Im worried about the hurricane and other things. It will be fine. Its disruptive. Im not sure we agree with all of it, but its the rules of the road every people worth adjust to it. Scarlet there is much more ahead as we revisit the top interviews from bloombergs coverage of the americas in 2017. Up next, honking talks monetary aussie with Stanley Fischer and later on, the rapid rise of blip is rising atitcoin torrent of opinions. I dont see why there is all this hostility toward it. Scarlet this is bloomberg. Scarlet you are watching the special edition of bloomberg best, highlighting conversations from the year 2017 on his this and finance in the americas. Im scarlet fu. The Federal Reserve continued on its path toward policy normalization with three rate hikes in 2017 under janet yellen. But you will be leaving her post when the term ends in 2018 postn will be leaving her when the term and in 2018 and Jerome Powell will be replacing her. Tom keene spoke with fisher about the principles guiding it in the 20 rate. Area e 21st century century. The understanding of the forces in the macroeconomy are. It hasnt changed that much. What those forces are have changed a lot of the time and we are operating in a much more globally integrated, not fully integrated economy. I dont recall doing that chart you said in your notes mrs. Fisher did that chart for you a few years ago. I wouldnt be surprised thats what it is. , what is the next chairman what type of economics do they have to do . May i suggest it must be a more malleable economics . As it, its not as simple used to be and you have to take more forces and changes into account with us being very close to a Global Integrated economy. Michael mckee was talking about mario draghi being a student. How would you teach phds today . Theres this thing that science proceeds progresses funeral by funeral. I think i would be teaching more or less the same things and the next generation would have something more advanced, more different than i would have had. Tom let me debt into economics today. He spoke to the Economic Club of altrark and it was about accommodative. Stanley fischer gave us this phrase. Ring us this chart in bring us this chart. We still havent gotten this zero level. Are you happy with the pace that we are on to get back to a normal fed . Guest i would rather that the real Interest Rate became positive, which we expect to happen sometime in mid2018. So the pace is ok. Its not terrific. This is a very complex issue, which is related to the decline in productivity growth. Among other things. And its related also to decisions that the government would make. The real Interest Rate rose quite a bit when it was expected there would be a big fiscal stimulus and it went down afterwards when the expectation of the stimulus was reduced. Importanttation is an word. Good morning to professor lucas of chicago. You taught at chicago eight years ago. Are we expecting too much in our guesstimates of inflation . Do we have too much of a believe that we will have higher inflation . Guest well, i still believe we will have higher inflation. There are basic mechanisms and isaac mechanism and the basic mechanism here is unemployment is declining all the time, which is will start going up at some stage and the experienced many of us have, including myself is, you have to wait a long time. Usually longer than you expected to wait for it to happen, but it is a basic force mainly. Increase in force and increase in wages. It will show up and once it shows up, we will say that is what we expected. Tom i spoke to our Bloomberg Economics team and there is so much uncertainty about the future of this important global institution, the Federal Reserve system. Lets start with the low rate psychology. Rateeality is, we have low donald, the president who seems to be wired for the comfort of low rates. Is that a mistake . Guest there are reasons to want lower rates, especially when growth is so slow and investment has been smaller than expected. For quite some time. Are encouraging investments, they are to encourage growth. They have been less successful than that then we have expected, but they have been more successful in encouraging employment area them employment. The miracle of this recovery is at the crisis did not generate longterm, massive unemployment. We are basically back to something close to full employment. Tom in your final thoughts in london, in your speech you talked about never say never events. Needkind of chairman do we to be steeled and ready for never say never events . Guest you simply need someone who has the flexibility of mind to see that he or she needs to take a different route at a particular moment in time or over the next year or two and someone who has also the capacity to lead a very large, very complex committee, the open market committee, to agree with his or her thoughts. Scarlet weve got more of 2017s top interviews just ahead, views of the economy and technology. Tim cook sees Tech Education as a counter to inequality. A incredible desire to bring coding to the masses. This is, in my view, one of the keys to the middle class. Scarlet ray dalio has a warning for americans. Either you are doing the programming, or you are being replaced by a computer for the most part. Scarlet this is bloomberg. Retail. Under pressure like never before. And its connected technology thats moving companies forward fast. Ecommerce. Real time inventory. Virtual changing rooms. Thats why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent Network Speed across multiple locations. Every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. Leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. Comcast business outmaneuver. This is a special edition of bloomberg best, wrapping up 2017 in the americas through the top interviews. Bridgewater founder ray dalio built a hedge fund that manages more than 150 billion. This year, he published a book titled principles that lays out his managing of life and business. We visited bridgwaters campus to talk with him about the book. They discussed the economic and political conditions he sees as critical in 2017. If you look at the economy right now for the shorter term, where we are, we have a situation where we dont have too much inflation and too little inflation. We dont have too much growth or too little growth. We dont have a debt bubble and so on. We have something that is reasonable. This is different than 2008. We have a political situation, which is difficult. We have a wealth gap. , which isortunity gap a difficult situation, and we have a very big obligation coming forward. Health care obligations, pension obligations that will be a burden. It will be a gradual problem. ,ut the way that those monetary those who are running monetary policies have done, have handled that well. Fiscal policy reasonably well. Its a much more politicized area. Thats a much more favorable characterization than a lot of people would give fiscal policy. Most people would give fiscal policy two thumbs down. Yeah. You hear a hesitancy in terms of my giving a comp lament relative to the other, but i think the political environment is such a difficult environment and politics it self is dysfunctional and we have to talk about how to to deal with medical decisionmaking. Thats a different conversation. You take the individuals and put them in their jobs and you are asking them how they are doing in their jobs all things considered, thats the problem. Thats a thing we have to consider. The thing we have done in fiscal policy. We i think the political system is a very challenging situation. Advising thewere president , what would you suggest he do . Guest the most important thing is to make sure we understand what the countrys principles are that bind us together, rather than those that divide us. Ideas, meritocratic decisionmaking, to come up with the best decisions, to bring the country together in an idea meritocratic way. I think the theory that we are in reminds me of 1937, if i was to pick and analogous. Period of time. It was after the financial 2008, which was around 2009, they printed a lot of money, asset prices went up, Interest Rates went to zero and we had a large wealth gap that created populism. The essential tank begins to tighten Monetary Policy and we had a populism and a fall in the stock market. Erik so we are once again at precipice . This guest yes, we cant have a tightening of monetary material. We have a large wealth gap that at the top. 2 of the populations wealth equals the bottom 90 of the populations wealth. And its not just wealth. Theres a polarity. And this is a time where we have both of those things. You cant have an economic downturn because socially and politically, we could not stand an economic downturn. We would be at each others throats. Its a threat to our system. So its in many ways analogous. So thats fearful to me. When you ask what i would recommend the president of the United States to do, is to try to deal with conflict well, to bring people together, did not make one side with a battle with the other side and to try to have ways to get at the best decisions. Thats what i would recommend the president do. Erik you are writing your book, only people can discover things and Program Computers to do that. Today, when people think about inequality, they worry about the risk that they will be replaced by machines. Will your statement always be true . While humans always have an edge over computers . Guest the notion of intuitions, imagination, the same type of creativity comes from millions of years of programming that is in the brain. If erik genetic programming. Guest genetic programming, ok. We have a lot of genetic programming. I think for the foreseeable future, for a very long time, those elements will not be able to be achieved in the same way a computer is. The best thing is when the computer and man, imaginative people, are working together. But we are coming into an era in which basically you can either code, or take your imaginations and encode them, which is the new leg which. Have your kids learn coding. Its the equivalent of knowing how to read and write. They will need to express themselves that way. When you have them working with the computer, thats the ultimate our very thats ultimate power. Thats where we are ultimately heading. You are doing the programming or you are being replaced by a computer for the most part. Erik do you worry about that . Guest i do worry about it. Theres an economic component. This split is a big thing. I just did a study for examining the bottom 6 of the economy. This is the majority 60 of the economy. This is the majority of americans. It is a very bleak picture. Averages dont convey it. Unless you are in the middle of it, you dont see it. Thatsintolerable very owing to be a problem. Intolerable. Thats going to be a problem. Evolution and productivity is connected to this wealth disparity. Its producing this wealth disparity and producing those things. Its going to become increasingly challenging to figure out what you are doing about it. Thats a whole big topic. Scarlet still to come on this special edition of the bread best, a conversation with the ceo of the world most variable company. Apple, talks of about the value of people. We are trying to enlarge the definition of human rights for everyone. Scarlet the value of the bitcoin shot through the roof in toy 17, not everybody is on the bandwagon. Its not for me. Scarlet this is bloomberg. Scarlet this is bloomberg asked, im scarlet fu bloomberg best, im scarlet fu. It has been an eventful year for bitcoin. It has grown quite fold in 2017 and in december, they begin trading with nasdaq running to launch futures next year. Price surged, it became a topic of conversation on bloomberg. Everyone wanted to talk about it. This whole revolution came out of a breakdown in trust. It came down of the 2008 financial crisis, were people say we do not trust financial institutions, we dont trust governments. And in parts of the world, still, its hard to trust the financial world. Revolution,zed which bitcoin is the poster child of, is a response to the breakdown of trust. Is it an investment or a trade . There was a cryptocurrency i had never heard of called teather. That drove bitcoin down 5. 5 . It has come back since. There seems to be a lot of volatility in cryptocurrencies. We are in the second or third and days of this revolution. Each of these coins are individual ecosystems. They have their own use case. Bitcoin is a decentralized system of money, but there are a thousand other coins, decent market cap coins that have their own system. Because prices move so far, people are nervous. Theyve made a lot of money and theres news, you want to book your profits and get out. To be fair, people lost millions of dollars they wont get back. How does that not put the model into question . 250 billion. And then it got stolen. It gets people nervous. We spent a lot of time thinking about the security of our coins. When i had a smaller amount invested, i spent less time. Whats your bitcoin call for 2018 . 20, andded the year at were close to 500. Scarlet if bitcoin were to be regulated, could it be viable . One of the main functions of government is to create currency and bitcoin is successful only because of its potential for circumvention, lack of oversight. It seems to me it ought to be outlawed. It doesnt serve any social useful function. To what to just go back we always have had and this is just a bubble as several of your commentators have already pointed out. Its a bubble that will give a lot of people a lot of exciting times as it rides up and goes down. Asshould bitcoin be outlawed they suggest . Probably its an attempt by some people to try to make payments or use currency with a view to evade taxes, to evade legislation on money laundering, maybe antiterrorist financing. Thate the impression polish authorities have not yet focused on the dangers of the andlopment of these scam when they will, i think some people will get hurt. Others thought this was a New Invention and we lose money. Formers me think of chairman of citigroup said before, as long as the music plays, we dance. As long as prices go up, people think its fantastic. But somebody will get hurt. What is it . Security, commodity, currency . Its a currency. A has a liability attached to it. A dollar bill as a liability. Commodities do not have liabilities. They are bare assets. In that context, you look at bitcoin. Its not much different from gold. I dont see weather is all that hostility toward it because it fits the commodities. The punch back i would have against bitcoin really has to do with liquidity. I checked the numbers this morning. Even at 10,000 or 11,000, its a billion dollar market cap. 1 trillion above ground. Thats liquidity. The lack of liquidity is grading volatility which is people concerned about bitcoin. Could bitcoin be a landmine . , they say of what it coin like the plague, did i make myself clear . There is a lot of risk attached to this asset. Its more likely in the mainstream. Their issues around the edges of this. Focusonally have and more on blockchain, a couple investments weve made our focused on the infrastructure you like the Technology Behind it . I like the technology. We hear that a lot. The technology is really good. What it promises for the future, not only financial markets, but any asset transferred between two people or forming a corporation or cap table management, its too obvious to me that all these things can so easily be digitized that that wont happen. With paul, the bitcoin market is speculative right now. Given the limited supply where do you think its going . Whats your target with bitcoin . Its going higher. 612 months,ing at i would say we are talking at a higher price, not a lower price. You have not rejected or endorsed the coin. But when does goldman have to have a Bitcoin Strategy . Not today. When . Be really rosy if this is what we are talking about. Curryas talking to jeff over at goldman the other day and he said the only thing people are asking him are bitcoin and ev. You have to be thinking yes im thinking about it because i get asked about it. Where i am is, its not for me. But theres a lot of things that work for me in the past at work out well. If youd told me in 20 years, it worked out, i could tell you why it worked out. I know, im what not dissing it will work out. But im not going to stand there and be strident and say its a fraud because it might. Is a technology where where you can have different accesses to data different people can can control and you can see whos doing what. There are places where thats a useful thing. The bloomberg system is a blockchain. Instead of having the users control it, we control it, but it has all the attributes of that area bitcoin is different of that. Bitcoin is different. There are new cryptocurrencies started every day every thats different. The governments of the world will lose control of Monetary Policy area im skeptical. Theyre not collect that happened and they shouldnt. Scarlet welcome back to this special edition of bloomberg best, summing up 2017 with a focus on the americas. Lets conclude with an interview with tim cook from the inaugural Bloomberg Business forum held in new york in september. Editor in chief megan murphy ceo cant and if should play in civic leadership. All companies should have values. As the ceo, one of your primary responsibilities is to come up like with the valleys of with your company is and leave accordingly area the other accordingly. The other thing is, the thing president kennedy used to say that originated from the bible, much is given, much is expected. And so wehad success feel a responsibility to give back. To help in some of societys greatest troubles. And for us, we try to look issues ourhat government is working on, what issues are key in society, and we think about the skills we have. There are some issues we have no skills on. But there are some that we can really amplify government hand, ororking hand in we can pretty much do ourselves. Been, at has always the core, about changing the world. You cant change the world if you are ignoring the world. And so, thats the way we look at it. Today, but not only in the past as well, i think that silence is the ultimate consent. If you see something going on thats not right, the most powerful form of consent is to say nothing very nothing. I think thats not acceptable to your company, to the team that works so hard for your company, for your customers or for your country. Or for each country that you happen to be operating in. And so thats kind of the way i see it. And i have to say, im more optimistic today than i have ever been. And i mean that sincerely. And thats despite sometimes not feeling like that, but overall, i think we have an Incredible Opportunity because never before have i seen the ability all across the world to Work Together on somebody some of these common issues. Megan we all talk about the lack of innovation, whether we are preparing our children for the jobs of tomorrow and not the jobs of yesterday. Apple has been invested in education and coding, as well. Is that moving as rapidly as you hask to address what ma called the technical revolution we have faced . Theve been really moved by Public Sector here and their willingness to engage and be very aggressive. We started many years ago crafting a language that would be as easy to learn as apple products are to use. We then designed a curriculum. We found an incredible number of k12 institutions wanting to pull the curriculum. We then took that to Community Colleges. We rolled of that out in may. We are talking to her to three Different Community colleges 33 Community Colleges in the states. So im seeing an incredible desire to bring coding to the masses. This is, in my view, one of the keys to the middle class. Manufacturing was a key for the middle class years ago. Coding is a key for the middle class for tomorrow and today, to be frank. There is massive shortages in the world and its not just in tech. Incrediblybecome fundamental to all of our businesses, whether running a retailer or an automotive manufacturer or whatever you may be doing, or guy on the street corner. Seenm seeing, ive not teachers not willing or wanting to do this. Ive seen a lack of Development Dollars being spent in schools and so we are training teachers right now. Through every classroom, i can also say, every classroom weve been in, weve found willing teachers, administrators, and the kids are more engaged than ever before. Kids want to learn about the digital economy. They are growing up digital. And its not good for them to grow up digital and then go to school and be in an analog world. It just doesnt work. It turns them off. So im seeing incredible Government Support there. We are running apple on 100 Renewable Energy in the u. S. And many other countries around the world. Ive seen incredible Government Support there, particularly in china. We now run our chinese operations on 100 Renewable Energy. That is going well and we are spending a lot of talent on human rights. We believe everyone should be treated with dignity and respect and if you are born with a disability, we want our product to work with everyone, whether you can see or hear or not. And of course, we are trying to do our part in enlarging the definition of human rights for everyone. And a lot of that, we had an immigration discussion earlier that really plays into that, as well. Scarlet and that wraps up our special edition of bloomberg best. We hope you enjoyed these conversations from bloombergs coverage of finance in the americas in 2017. With forward to bringing you more news and analysis in the years ahead. Thanks for watching. Im scarlet fu. This is bloomberg. Emily i am emily chang and this is the best of bloomberg technology. Uber has a new number two. Base coinbases Insider Trading suspicion. Our exclusive interview with the bank of