More divisions i believe into south lebanon. Joining me tonight are emily harding, director of the centre for international studies intelligence, national security, and technology programme. Justin crump, ceo at sibylline. Anja manuel, the Executive Director of the Aspen Security Forum and a former us state department official, and lord kim darroch, former Uk Ambassador to the us. It isa it is a great panel, we will get them all in the next hour. First, the latest bbc news. Services and commemorations have been taking place for the 1,200 israelis killed and more than 250 taken hostage, in the hamas attacks, exactly one year ago. A Minutes Silence was held. World leaders have also been marking the day. President biden lit a ceremonial candle in the White House and said the us was committed to Israels Security and too many civilians have suffered too much in this era of conflict. The british prime Minister Sir Keir starmer said that October The 7th was the darkest Day Injewish history since the holocaust. There were rockets fired at Israel Today from both lebanon. In an address to the nation today, prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to stop such an attack ever happening again. In other news, four pupils are being treated in hospital after a School Bus overturned in northern ireland. The Ambulance Service there says 43 people and the driver were on board the vehicle when it crashed in county down. If you arejustjoining, welcome to the programme. The Dawn Ceremony in a clearing at the reim forest, the site of the nova music festival, took place under heavy security this morning. The songs and prayers for those killed accompanied by The Sound of israeli Air Strikes just across the border In Gaza. The Minutes Silence interrupted by the Piercing Cries of a bereaved mother. Wailing it has been the Most solemn day, filled with sadness and suffering. But not a day in isolation. For israelis, for palestinians, indeed for the entire region every day of this past year is like some nightmare, from which there is no awakening. Especially for the families who grieve. This is where she was, this is where she was happy in her last moments. It was here. Ladle where she was happy in her last moments. It was here. We tried to look for moments. It was here. We tried to look for her moments. It was here. We tried to look for her for moments. It was here. We tried to look for her for alMost moments. It was here. We tried to look for her for alMost five i to look for her for alMost five weeks to look for her for alMost five weeks. And we try to look for her tattooed over here which said her tattooed over here which said die her tattooed over here which said die with memories, not james said die with memories, not james. Which gives you another meaning james. Which gives you another meaning suddenly. Not dreams then there are families whose Loved Ones were taken across the border into gaza. Through it all, more than 60 living hostages, and the bodies of about 35 believed to be dead, are still In Gaza. For them the hope appears to be retreating with every new and related crisis connected to october 7th. Hamas has not given any accurate information as to who is alive who is dead. Many families have been in the dark for a year. Their Loved Ones used as human shields. Some compare their situation to being trapped in a swamp, unable to move forward. Until they and the rest of our community members, and there are 100 and hostages, until they come back i dont know what my future is. Everything is day to day. The entire Middle East is waiting for Israels Response to the iranian ballistic Missile Attack last week. Joe biden does not want them to attack irans nuclear facilities or its petro chemical industry. But there is a lot of pressure in israel to disregard the president s advice. Opposition politician benni gantz, a former minister of defence, argued in the nyt this weekend that iran has built a Ring Of Fire around his country. Iran, he says, is waiting for its chance to annihilate israel. Now, says the Prime Minister, is the time to confront it. Translation were changing the Security Reality Translation were changing the Security Reality of translation were changing the Security Reality of our translation were changing the Security Reality of our region, Security Reality of our region, for the sake of our children, the fate of our future and to ensure what Happened on October The 7th will happen again. Will not happen again. Today a year on israel fights on three fronts. It is a country at war. 135 Rockets were fired by hezbollah just today, some intercepted above the israeli city of haifa. Two divisions of israeli troops have been deployed to the northern border. We will speak throughout this hour with our panel. About where this goes next, whether israel does have a strategic End Game in mind. And what role the arab states will play in finding that solution. But first let us turn to someone who was there on october 7th, one of the 3500 attendees at the nova music festival. Yoni dillon is a Film Maker from tel aviv, he escaped that day on foot, walking five hours to safety. But two of his friends were killed, two others were kidnapped. Welcome to the programme. Thank you for having me. Is welcome to the programme. Thank you for having me. You for having me. Is there an one you for having me. Is there anyone in you for having me. Is there anyone in particular you for having me. Is there anyone in particular you you for having me. Is there L Anyone in particular you were thinking of today . Anyone in particular you were thinking of today . Yes, a good friend of Mine Thinking of today . Yes, a good friend of mine that thinking of today . Yes, a good friend of mine that went thinking of today . Yes, a good friend of mine that went to friend of mine that went to High School with me was one of the six passengers that was held In Gaza. He was supposed to be released in the Hostage Deal and in the last minute the hamas terrorists shop all six hostages including an american citizen. They put a bullet in his head and he did not survive it, so. It is a sad day. L his head and he did not survive it, so. It is a sad day. It, so. It is a sad day. I am really sorry it, so. It is a sad day. I am really sorry. What it, so. It is a sad day. I am really sorry. What would it, so. It is a sad day. I aml really sorry. What would you like the political leaders to do about trying to get the hostages who are still alive home . What can be done to change the equation . Home . What can be done to change the equation . Look, i am not a big politics change the equation . Look, i am not a big politics fan, change the equation . Look, i am not a big politics fan, to change the equation . Look, i am not a big politics fan, to be not a big politics fan, to be honest. I dont understand much about it so i dont really have an opinion about politics. But i know that we have 101 hostages down In Gaza and i see people chanting on The Streets, a ceasefire. And it sounds really hypocritical to say that when there are 101 hostages In Gaza. And they are yelling ceasefire. That sounds absurd, so i think right now we deal with the war right now, we are dealing with iran and its proxies and hamas and that is really the best thing we can do right now. Strategically. A year later, october seven, there are a lot of mixed emotions about this day. L there are a lot of mixed emotions about this day. I was aroin to emotions about this day. I was going to ask emotions about this day. I was going to ask you emotions about this day. I was going to ask you at emotions about this day. I was going to ask you at the emotions about this day. I was going to ask you at the top, i going to ask you at the top, actually, what your reflections work today. But i guess you have been reflecting on it every day. I dont suppose October The 7th is a day of reflection for you. It has been a constant thing throughout the year. A constant thing throughout the ear. ,. , a constant thing throughout the ear. ,. Y. , a constant thing throughout the ear. ,. ,. Year. Exactly. For october seven for year. Exactly. For october seven for israelis year. Exactly. For october seven for israelis it year. Exactly. For october seven for israelis it is year. Exactly. For october seven for israelis it is a i year. Exactly. For october| seven for israelis it is a big traumatic event, it is like September 11 through americans. Today in New York i see protests and people chanting on The Street that 7th Of October should happen again. That is like saying September 11 should happen again. A lot of people dont know what they are protesting for, im sure they are doing the right thing like are doing the right thing like a social movement like Climate Change but some really dont know. You have to free gaza from hamas and we have to take our hostages back and we have to do it now and it is really not and even thing, people hiding theirfaces. If not and even thing, people hiding their faces. If they were proud of what they were doing there would not be hiding. It is really sad to see people denying october seven ever Happened. You people denying october seven ever Happened. People denying october seven ever Happened. You spent a lot of our ever Happened. You spent a lot of your time ever Happened. You spent a lot of your time since ever Happened. You spent a lot of your time since october ever Happened. You spent a lot of your time since october the l of your time since October The 7th visiting american students to recount what Happened, and a lot ofjewish students i know come up to you to express their fears and concerns about the rising anti semitism, even in the united states. What you tell them in the context of what Happened on October The 7th, and the ongoing threats that israel still faces . That israel still faces . Yeah, like ou that israel still faces . Yeah, like you said, that israel still faces . Yeah, like you said, i that israel still faces . Yeah, like you said, i have that israel still faces . Yeah, like you said, i have been i like you said, i have been around campuses around the united states, harvard, yale, princeton, to speak to the students to understand what is really happening. A lot of them are very afraid because it is very violent. A lot claim they are Peace Activists but are in fact spread a lot of hate and a graffiti on monuments. People dont feel safe in the campuses. How can you really live like that . This is bringing us back to 1939, like the holocaust situation. People are afraid to walk on The Streets. It is really dark times and it is also the people there, you have to be strong, resilient and have dialogue, but not with the fanatic and radical people, they wont want to listen. They want to listen to listen. They want to listen to their own agenda. So the main messages are resilience and strength, but we cant give this voice. And strength, but we cant give this voice. This voice. Yoni, i know this is difficult this voice. Yoni, i know this is difficult to this voice. Yoni, i know this is difficult to talk this voice. Yoni, i know this is difficult to talk about. This voice. Yoni, i know this is difficult to talk about. We l is difficult to talk about. We appreciate you coming on the programme tonight. Thank you very much. Programme tonight. Thank you very much very much. Thank you. I hope the world very much. Thank you. I hope the world will very much. Thank you. I hope the world will consume very much. Thank you. I hope the world will consume the i the world will consume the right information by different Media Sources and we will know better. , , Media Sources and we will know better. ,. , Media Sources and we will know better. ,. ,. , better. Only by talking about that do we better. Only by talking about that do we do better. Only by talking about that do we do that, better. Only by talking about that do we do that, so better. Only by talking about that do we do that, so thank| that do we do that, so thank you for coming on. Lets turn that over to our panel. Anja, do you think the world really understands just listening to that what the impact of this has been on the israeli people . Yeah, absolutely. Thank you for having me on. This is indeed the darkest day. The brutal Terrorist Attack by hamas. This war one youre on has no winners and my heart is with the victims on all side of this. You asked me specifically about how it has impacted israel. I think this attack was really existential for israel. I have heard several israelis described to me as about as, compared it to the first war after the creation of the israeli state. They dont feel secure in their own homes in their own country. From a palestinian perspective, i think you have a feeling that non violent resistance got nowhere, Netanyahus Strategy nowhere, Neta Nyahus Strategy seems nowhere, Netanyahus Strategy seems to keep the West Bank politically divided and one year on we are no closer to a two State Resolution or anything that would end this brutal conflict. Brutal conflict. Justin, the hamas leader, brutal conflict. Justin, the hamas leader, the brutal conflict. Justin, the l hamas leader, the military leader, he wanted a cataclysmic war that would drag on the other proxies. But in many ways it has not gone to plan for him. Gaza is in ruins, hamas is battered, Hezbollahs Leadership has been annihilated. The proxies are under severe pressure and crucially the arab protests on The Street have been pretty muted. Did he fail, or has he opened a Pandoras Box that will not be easily closed . Ladle will not be easily closed . We discussed will not be easily closed . We discussed this alMost a year ago discussed this alMost a year ago and discussed this alMost a year ago and said what was hamas looking ago and said what was hamas looking to achieve with this . And looking to achieve with this . And i looking to achieve with this . And i think the parallels with September The 11th is a magnitude larger for israel if you think about the size of the country you think about the size of the country and casualties. Hamas knew country and casualties. Hamas knew that country and casualties. Hamas knew that this was not something that was going to be handled something that was going to be handled in the normal manner if you like handled in the normal manner if you like by handled in the normal manner if you like by israel, and sol think you like by israel, and sol think they were looking to ignite think they were looking to ignite a think they were looking to ignite a cataclysmic event and effectively mutter the people of gaza effectively mutter the people of gaza knowing that israel would of gaza knowing that israel would react strongly. So i think would react strongly. So i think that that part of their plan think that that part of their plan worked. Effectively mutter mutter martyr. Mutter martyr. Ballistic Missiles Mutter martyr. Ballistic missiles have not proven to be the threat missiles have not proven to be the threat they thought it would the threat they thought it would be on results so far. And israel would be on results so far. And Israel Resolve to start dismantling iranian proxy forces dismantling iranian proxy forces across the region. What has turned against israel i think. Has turned against israel i think, and a lot hasnt. I think think, and a lot hasnt. I think that was a flashpoint early think that was a flashpoint early on think that was a flashpoint early on that everybody was anxious early on that everybody was anxious about was how the Arab World anxious about was how the Arab World would react. After a year. World would react. After a year. I world would react. After a year, i think a lot of the criticism year, i think a lot of the criticism coming from there is muted criticism coming from there is muted and that has not achieved, in fact, what i think they achieved, in fact, what i think they would like to have seen from they would like to have seen from hamas. Some initial strong successes, from hamas. Some initial strong successes, and failure with where successes, and failure with where they are now. Emily, we were talking where they are now. Emily, we were talking in where they are now. Emily, we were talking in the where they are now. Emily, we were talking in the last where they are now. Emily, we were talking in the last hour i were talking in the last hour about the things that divide israelis currently, and i think what does confound Israeli Society is that israeli intelligence has no inkling of what was about to unfold on October The 7th. And yet had thoroughly penetrated and outwitted the command of hezbollah. Had you explained that . ,. ,. , hezbollah. Had you explained that . ,. ,. , that . This is going to be an intelligence that . This is going to be an Intelligence Failure that . This is going to be an Intelligence Failure that that . This is going to be an Intelligence Failure that will be explored for years and years to come. It is interesting that israel was so focused on what was going on on its northern border and with hezbollah are not paying as much attention as to what was going on In Gaza with hamas. It seems they assume that hamas was not capable of pulling off the style of attack, this complex attack, and thus transfer their attention to hezbollah which they thought was a next essential threat. That kind of Mindset And Bias can be dangerous. Existential threat. They do not want to repeat the same mistakes again. Wasnt just that, repeat the same mistakes again. Wasntjust that, kim, was also the split We Saw before october the split We Saw before October The 7th in Israeli Society about the government they had and the assault the government had begun on the israeli judiciary. Did that encourage hamas because they could see the weakness in Israeli Society . It the weakness in Israeli Society . The weakness in Israeli Socie . ,. , ~ society . It may have done. And israel has society . It may have done. And israel has been society . It may have done. And israel has been profoundly israel has been profoundly divided israel has been profoundly divided for a long time now, years divided for a long time now, years and divided for a long time now, years and years. And it is about years and years. And it is about a years and years. And it is about a decade since i was last there. About a decade since i was last there. But about a decade since i was last there, but all is profoundly divided there, but all is profoundly divided then and it has been, i assume divided then and it has been, i assume so, all the times i have been assume so, all the times i have been there. But hamas did see that as been there. But hamas did see that as an been there. But hamas did see that as an opportunity. Just i. I that as an opportunity. Just it might that as an opportunity. Just 1. I might add to the discussion we have 1. I might add to the discussion we have just had, the very useful we have just had, the very useful discussion we have had. Her useful discussion we have had. Her her useful discussion we have had. Her her mass have not achieved her her mass have not achieved. Hamas. The americans achieved. Hamas. The americans were intensive negotiations with Saudi Arabia over negotiations with Saudi Arabia over whether they would join that over whether they would join that accordance. That prospect has now that accordance. That prospect has now gone away. I dont know whether has now gone away. I dont know whether it has now gone away. I dont know whether it is gone away forever, whether it is gone away forever, but it has certainly gone forever, but it has certainly gone back and there is no prospect gone back and there is no prospect of doing that instead there prospect of doing that instead there is prospect of doing that instead there is a prospect of doing that instead there is a two State Solution on the there is a two State Solution on the table for the palestinians. In that sense, one palestinians. In that sense, one of palestinians. In that sense, one of the objectives that hamas one of the objectives that hamas would have been after, destroying the negotiations between Saudi Arabia, i feel they between Saudi Arabia, i feel they have achieved. We between Saudi Arabia, i feel they have achieved. They have achieved. We will talk more they have achieved. We will talk more about they have achieved. We will talk more about that they have achieved. We will talk more about that and i they have achieved. We will| talk more about that and the reaction of the arab states later in the programme. We will take a short break, plenty more to come. Around the world and across the uk, you are watching bbc news. You might think on a day like this there would be a response. Perhaps a moment to reflect. And yet even today and in the midst of the silences observed, The Sound of war was never very far away. The israelis are now active on a number of fronts, with a very real chance of war between israel and iran. A scenario in which the united states could be sucked into a much wider conflict. But to what end . What is israels strategic objective . And how far will they go . There is concern in the west the israeli Prime Minister has set his country an alMost unreachable threshold for victory. Let me start, just in, with you on this. Clearly, there are a whole range of rich targets the israelis could focus on. The biden administration say they do not want to go after the nuclear facilities, do not want to go after the nuclearfacilities, but do not want to go after the nuclear facilities, but lets face it, they have ignored the americans before. What do you think that would precipitate . As you say, very recently, there is no guarantee on that. The point was made in the previous part of the programme, if you are going to attack the nuclear fill facilities you need to do it comprehensively. It really depends how comprehensive that is for a start and whether that results in an acceleration of any Iranian Nuclear Programme in place, because iran are very few options. More widely across the region, it depends whether this drags the us in. Israel would rather have the us On Side and a iran would prefer the us would stay out of this. So it is very hard to judge what israel really achieves and where it goes. The us would have tojoin in where it goes. The us would have to join in Something And Iran would look at this as an excess dental problem in many ways, and possibly already is. An existential problem. The Oil And Gas facilities are not good, the country is already struggling economically. The Leadership Targets are not good and there is this feeling that israel is in this for the kill at this point with iran and would love to see Regime Change there. Nothing off the table and i highly volatile and unpredictable situation whatever Course Israel chooses. There are 41,000 troops, the Aircraft Carrier the Abraham Lincoln and Fighter JetsAircraft Carrier the Abraham Lincoln and fighterjets on board. They will all remain in the gulf of oman. How concerned are you that if we get a strike on iran in the next few days the us might become more militarily involved . It is the us might become more militarily involved . Militarily involved . It is not whether i militarily involved . It is not whether i am militarily involved . It is not whether i am concerned, i l militarily involved . It is not whether i am concerned, i think the us whether i am concerned, i think the us are whether i am concerned, i think the us are suitably concerned and then the us are suitably concerned and then more dilemmas than suitable and then more dilemmas than suitable answers. It is unclear what suitable answers. It is unclear what targets israel will strike inside what targets israel will strike inside iran. There are a lot of military inside iran. There are a lot of military targets, and there are targets military targets, and there are targets of iranian leaders that would targets of iranian leaders that would escalate further. You could would escalate further. You could attack Irans Energy Infrastructure and do a lot to harm infrastructure and do a lot to harm lran infrastructure and do a lot to harm iran short of striking its nuclear harm iran short of striking its nuclear fill facilities, which has nuclear fill facilities, which has been said on this programme is incredibly difficult. In the united is incredibly difficult. In the united states, while trying very united states, while trying very hard to get a ceasefire In Gaza, very hard to get a ceasefire In Gaza, but very hard to get a ceasefire In Gaza, but ultimately unfortunately unsuccessful, to tamb unfortunately unsuccessful, to tamp down this conflict. The united tamp down this conflict. The united states is in it and they have united states is in it and they have supported israel all the way along, sol have supported israel all the way along, so i imagine us commanders in the region are quite commanders in the region are quite worried about being dragged in. Quite worried about being dragged in quite worried about being draned in. , dragged in. David sanger wrote in the weekend dragged in. David sanger wrote in the weekend that dragged in. David sanger wrote in the weekend that a in the weekend that a remarkable collision of events that could shake the final weeks of the president ial campaign. It would put the Vice President in a considerable bind, is if she embraces the strike as a justifiable act of self defence, she risks a Run In with the progressive side of her party, but to criticise the israeli action she will be accused by the right of being weak and defending israel. You can see when we talk about an october event, 29 days until the election, this has big ramifications for american politics, doesnt it . It ramifications for american politics, doesnt it . It really does, politics, doesnt it . It really does. You politics, doesnt it . It really does, you have politics, doesnt it . It really does, you have described i politics, doesnt it . It really. Does, you have described the situation very well. I think the biden administration is in a very difficult position on this. Ifind it unlikely a very difficult position on this. I find it unlikely that really whatever israel does against iran that she can detach american support from israel. So i think that the diplomatic channels will be hot with american pressure not to go for one of the heavier and more extreme options. The nuclear thing, previously chris was quite right, im not sure israel has the capacity to do serious damage to the Iranian Nuclear Programme that it is so well protected. If you go for oil infrastructure, iranians have form, go back to the 19805, have form, go back to the 1980s, of Retaliating Against Western CommercialOil Shipping and my guess is that that is exactly where they and push the Oil Crisis up instantly. It is really difficult in any circumstances, but extraordinarily difficult when you are 30 days off an election. You are 30 days off an election. ,. , election. Emily, we are already seeinu election. Emily, we are already seeing evidence election. Emily, we are already seeing evidence of election. Emily, we are already seeing evidence of that, election. Emily, we are already seeing evidence of that, a election. Emily, we are already seeing evidence of that, a fear| seeing evidence of that, a fear of a global Oil Crisis. There is thought written about tonight that an israeli strike on Oil Installations would prompt iran to target other refineries in the region, Saudi Arabia perhaps, or the united arabia perhaps, or the united arab emirates. We have seen in the past where they threaten the past where they threaten the passage of tankers. Again, when you are looking at the political ramifications of this 29 days from an election, it is pretty serious for the Vice President , is it not . It pretty serious for the Vice President , is it not . President , is it not . It is. She does president , is it not . It is. She does have president , is it not . It is. She does have a president , is it not . It is. She does have a really i president , is it not . It is. L she does have a really hard dilemma. The good news is that she is dilemma. The good news is that she is very dilemma. The good news is that she is very strong and confident on foreign policy. Where confident on foreign policy. Where she really has a problem is michigan. For the non american viewers, the michigan non american viewers, the michigan is a Swing State and they michigan is a Swing State and they have been quite outspoken abouts they have been quite outspoken abouts activities around the region abouts activities around the region. Im not sure that the irah region. Im not sure that the Iran Aspect would make that much Iran Aspect would make that much of Iran Aspect would make that much of a difference in michigan but could make a difference elsewhere. Oil Prices Difference elsewhere. Oil prices are always an issue in an Election And Iran have known to be an Election And Iran have known to be lash an Election And Iran have known to be lash out across the region. To be lash out across the region, all the way back to the cyber region, all the way back to the Cyber Attack that threw them off for Cyber Attack that threw them off for two weeks. And they have off for two weeks. And they have lots off for two weeks. And they have lots of tools in the toolkit have lots of tools in the toolkit to disrupt Oil Production and that could an impact production and that could an impact on the World Economy are not something that Vice President harris once just as she is president harris once just as she is running for president. You she is running for president. You need she is running for president. You need to look at the Oil Price which has been going up since thursday last week, we are now over 70 a barrel. Clearly concerns out there about what might happen in the days ahead with the israeli Defence Minister heading to washing tomorrow. We have to say goodbye to anja, she is very busy today. Our panels ways are because they are good anja, thank you for being on the programme. Always good to have your company. We will talk about the arab states after the break. Kim set us up nicely about Saudi Arabia and we might see where were headed in the months ahead and how the arab states might play a role in that. Stay with us, we will be right back. Good evening. Its been a pleasant Autumn Day in the sunshine, but Shower Clouds gathered as we went through the afternoon. Thats going to be the story over the next few days. In actualfact, we keep the showery theme and the mild theme. But towards the end of the week, cooler winds and stronger winds are set to arrive. So weve still got this area of low pressure with us at the moment, and thats driving these frontal systems around that area of low. So for the next few hours we could see some really intense thundery downpours developing, moving out of south West England and wales, up into the midlands and the north of england. They will continue to push their way steadily northwards during the early hours of thursday morning, further showers tucking into the southwest with the cloud and the showers around we keep double digits. A slightly cooler start into scotland so first Thing Tomorrow Morning weve got that rain through northern ireland, Northern England drifting towards the scottish borders. This is the dividing line. Weve got this Cool Northeasterly Flow Developing in scotland, a little bit quieter and drier here but not quite as mild further south. Plenty of frequent showers. Again, we Cant Rule out the Odd Rumble of thunder, but in the sunnier moments it will still be pleasantly warm for this stage of the year. Now, im sure youve heard us talking about Hurricane Kirk and the impact that thats going to have across the uk. Its lost its hurricane status. Its moving across the cooler waters, still set to push to the south of the uk, Impacting Northern Spain and france. But were still going to feel the effects of this storm because as it continues to drift its way steadily east, thats going to allow that Cooler Air to push the warm air back to the near continent. So as we go through the day on wednesday, theres still a risk of some Heavy Rain and rough seas close to the Channel Islands and the kent coast. A northerly wind will drive in a few scattered showers across the North Sea Coast as well, the cool air not really arriving yet. 14 to 17 degrees here, but noticeably colder in scotland. And as we go out of wednesday into thursday, Gale Force gusts of winds are going to push plenty of frequent showers steadily south. There will be some sunny spells, but it will be a Cooler Story for all. And in fact, temperatures are likely to peak between eight and 12 degrees, a little bit below par for where we should be at this stage in october. And then as we move through friday into saturday, a brief Ridge Of High Pressure builds across england and wales quietening things down. Hello, im christian fraser. Youre watching the context on bbc news