Energy infrastructure in ukraine has been a key target of russian air strikes. I'll speak to maxim timchenko of ukraine's energy giant dtek about keeping the lights on and the people safe whilst under attack from russia. Wherever in the world you'rejoining us from, welcome to the programme. Now, at the beginning of september this year, the heads of the uk and american foreign intelligence services wrote an unprecedented article, saying that stability of the world was under threat in a way not seen since the cold war, and since then, there's been even more instability. Those in the industry call it a permacrisis, a sense that the world is lurching from one extreme event, such as the covid pandemic, to another — the multiple international conflicts. In the middle east, fighting, bombing and fatalities on multiple fronts. In europe, russia's invasion of ukraine rages on into its third year, and the threat of that escalating is now seen as greater than ever before, with fighting now on both ukrainian and russian territory. In sudan, civil war and famine threatens the lives of thousands of people. And that's before you consider trade disputes between america and china, as well as china's continuing ambition to retake control of taiwan. Elsewhere in asia, north korea and its nuclear ambitions may not make regular headlines, but the threat hasn't gone away. And, of course, the crisis without borders — climate change, and the threat it poses to the lives and livelihoods of millions around the world. My first guest, he's the boss of international sos, helps businesses cope with danger and risk. Arnaud vaissie, welcome to talking business. And, first of all, give me your assessment ofjust how risky, how dangerous the world is right now, because if you look at that perceived risk level in your data, it's higher than ever recorded. Why? yes, definitely. The world is risky because we have crises all over the world. The issue is, is it riskier than before? maybe so. Is it as risky as it is going to be in the future? i think we've got to get used to the fact that we are going to live within a world in crisis, so the whole point is to know how to navigate crises. But clearly, if you look at the geopolitical situation around the world, you've got crises in, of course, with the war in ukraine, you have the middle east, which is extraordinarily fragile, the china sea is very volatile, and there are many other issues around the world. Climate is also a very serious factor to look at. We publish alerts at international sos on a daily basis. We had to publish, in 2023, 80% more alerts related to climate issues. So however you look at it. . . And you've got the american election coming up on the 7th of november and clearly disinformation is also an issue that we have to look at. So, to answer your question, yes, the world is risky. But if you give us a sense of the riskiness for business right now, how do you start to assess that risk? businesses, like all of us, have to accept that they are going to operate within a risky environment. So for businesses, the whole point is not to interrupt operations, it is to ensure that operations are going to keep functioning in spite of the uncertainty. So what does business have to do? first of all, to ensure the health and security of its employees. In order to do so, businesses have to be prepared. And i would say things have changed in this regard. Now, businesses have to really look at crisis management, at planning, at getting organised, so that they are not surprised when a new crisis arrives. It is just the world as it is now. Arnaud vaissie, it's good to have you on the programme this week. Thank you. Now, my next guest has worked in the field for decades with the irish police force, the european union and the united nations in places like bosnia, libya and nigeria. She's currently at dublin city university, working as the commercial lead on a new project called kowroo. It uses al to enhance safety and security for business. Dr sheelagh brady, welcome to the programme. And it sometimes feels like things are pretty difficult right now, that the world is a riskier place. Is that how you see it? well, the world has always been a risky place, and it depends, really, from what perspective you're looking at, but i think most people would agree that we're dealing now with a combination, a unique combination of factors — geopolitical tensions, economic instability, advances in technologies, the recent pandemic, major weather events, and i think these all create an environment where it looks riskier. Also, i think it's important to say that, actually, our exposure to instant media or instant reports of events throughout the world gives us that sense that we understand a little bit more of the risk and the nature of the risk that's present. I think a lack of data in the past has probably fooled us into thinking there were less risks, so i think, as i say, we're in a unique position now. We have the data, we probably have too much data in many ways, but it's very hard to compare with, say, the past to quantify whether we're in a riskier place. But i do think we have a unique number of factors that are contributing to quite a volatile globe. If we look at the images coming out of the middle east right now, one of the key conflicts that is making the world a riskier place, if, for example, you were advising a business in beirut, what do you tell them about how they keep their operations and their staff, crucially, how do they keep them safe? well, ithink, initially, it's that kind of primary, keep your staff safe, keep them informed of what's going on, try to understand what risk exposure they have at that individual level, and i think that has to be done. You know, it's not good enough just to say, we'll contact you, you don't have to come to work — you have to try to understand what assets they have, what conditions they're living in, what risk exposure they have in the real time. At the end of the day, a company has a moral obligation to look after its staff. I think also, at the operational level, they have to look at whether their operations are currently essential. So, for argument�*s sake, if this was somebody selling technologies, probably the best advice would be if there were non—local staff, at least to get them out of the country and to, say, stall operations for the time being. But if they were a medical, like a hospital, or if they were providing medical technologies that will help in a hospital, it's highly likely that they'll be so required that they actually do need to now start looking at practical mitigation measures, and that might be actually bringing in third parties to provide them with transporting staff or assets safely between two or three or a number of locations. But we really need the criticality of the organisation's role at that time, and if it's not critical, then i think keeping your people safe or actually taking them out of the country, if that's possible, have to be the top decisions of the day. You look at all the stats, all the numbers, everything that the data tells you about risk, can you build up that picture to present, you know, an assessment probably over the last few years, they also have to look at the people within the organisation that they are exposing to risk. For example, a media outlet. Onejournalist on the ground that really high level really decide my risk level really decide my risk level because they want to get the news back to the public and we the public want that. But actually, do they need to be sending their sales team? what is the appetite in terms of roles within that organisation and then what is the cost benefit analysis of doing that? and it strikes me too, as well, sheelagh, that everything you do is based on data, isn't it? you look at all the stats, all the numbers, everything that the data tells you about risk, can you build up that picture to present, you know, an assessment of whether you think it is risky or not. That could fundamentally be changed by things like ai as well. Talk to me about how you're using new tech in the way you build that picture of risk? so, i've been an analyst for years. I've created my own data sets. You know, data is our life key, and just even when we're talking about risk, assessing the risk is one thing, applying that risk to the activities of an organisation is another. At dublin city university, we currently have a project called kowroo, and we're trying to look at how ai, machine learning and other technologies can really enhance risk assessment. So, on a positive, it can enhance it by actually letting us process so much more data — past histories, projected forecasting for the future — but it's not a panacea for everything, and we are finding that, actually, the best is a combination of the human in the loop and the data. Dr sheelagh brady, so good to talk to you on the programme this week. Thank you for being with us. Thank you very much. Well, my next guest knows all too well about operating in a risky environment. His company, dtek, is the largest private power supplier in ukraine, and their operations have been underfire from russia for more than two years. Maxim timchenko, welcome to talking business, and let me start, first of all, with how things are right now. How are your operations? how is the business? now, it's absolute focus for all of us to get prepared for the coming winter, and that we spent seven months after massive attacks of russians and probably heard it from april this year. It was five waves of attacks of our infrastructure, mostly thermal power stations, and they managed to destroy about 50% of our generation in ukraine. So, of course, we put all our efforts, all our resources to be ready for the coming winter. And basically, that's our focus. The heating season is coming, and we've done everything possible to have enough generation capacity for the coming winter. Now, winter approaching is a huge challenge for any energy company, but especially for you. How do you prepare for the cold weather when you're under attack from russian missiles? what is it that you are up against on a day—to—day basis? i can say that, you know, all possible corporate risks for the company realise in our case, so we have all these challenges, and the major challenge is to bring all people, motivate people to work hard, to be prepared. When they destroy, we restore. They destroy again, we restore it again. And unity in ukraine and leadership of ministry of energy help us to bring people, to bring equipment, to bring all support we're getting from other countries, and make this installation and recovery, connect to the grid and have a result. So the most difficult for us is to find all resources we need to restore all this capacity after such dramatic damage russians brought to us. What is the most difficult thing for you to tackle right now? do you have everything you need? i'm thinking about the equipment, the supplies, the resources, because you've touched on the physical elements of it, getting what you need, but also, how do you motivate your staff to do the same job time and time again as things are destroyed and you have to rebuild, rebuild and rebuild? of course, if you see the images of destruction, it's hard to believe that it can be restored, but what we've done and, again, coming back to unity among energy companies, ukraine, so we take pieces of equipment from one power station and move to other. We co—ordinate with our colleagues. One of our power stations close to russian border, we had to stop it because it's very close to military front line, and dismantle most of equipment, and move it to the west of ukraine and install it there. Then we visited many european countries and getting equipment from decommissioned coal power station, bring them back to ukraine. So again, it's all concentrated in the hands of ministry of energy and, personally, ministry of energy is involved in this process. They co—ordinate and we work together so that we share this equipment among us. So, of course, we need financial support and we receive support from us aid, from agency of us government, from european union, from united kingdom, so from all our allies, we receive financial support in the form of equipment, and that helps us a lot to be ready and to be resistant, and to have confidence that we go through the next winter. Do you have all the stuff you need to maintain your operations? a lot of your staff have been called up to fight in that war. It have been called up to fight in that war. ,. ,. , ,. , that war. It is a group of companies _ that war. It is a group of companies and that war. It is a group of companies and we that war. It is a group of. Companies and we operate that war. It is a group of companies and we operate in different segments, coal mining and gas production and coal distribution and we accumulate all people to work on this task. Today we have over 1000 people working for restoration of our power units and power equipment. And of course, people want to see that there power station is connected to the grid and operational again because it's the whole life of these people around power station and their families and generations. And people come and say it, please call us to do whatever work you need. Clear the site �*s the roofs, do engineering work, connect it to the grid and we bring resources. Our the grid and we bring resources. 0ur coal the grid and we bring resources. Our coal miners work in the power station cleaning the sites after air strike. Our engineers coming from distribution companies come into power station to connect power station to the grid. So this is the way how we cope with all these changes. You talked, too, about some of those power plants that are near or on the front line. There is concern, isn't there, particularly about the nuclear plants and whether they are at risk? how much of a concern is that for you right now? are you able to mitigate some of those risks by moving some of the more dangerous components away from the front line? our nuclear facilities and nuclear power plants is the foundation of the whole energy of ukraine. And, you know, i can say that our nuclear company, doing greatjob under these circumstances, have enough capacity, go through repairs campaign, and get all these facilities ready for the winter. But of course, its primary target for russians because what they do is they try to disconnect nuclear power station from the grid. And in this case, we rely a lot on our air defence forces, and a lot of attention to this, especially over the last weeks, you know, it's publicly stated by our president, by our minister of energy, so that we need protection, and i think that we can cope with this challenge as well. So we've done, and our colleagues in nuclear company, they've done theirjob. Make sure that all nuclear power units are operational for the coming winter. Now, we rely a lot on our air defence forces and our partners that we have enough air defence systems and ammunition to protect this power station against attacks. Now, maxim, ispoke to you just after the war broke out and you talked about the challenges you were facing then. Here we are, entering its third year of war. Did you ever think that this war could go on for so long and you would still be facing these sorts of challenges? you know, my opinion, that you can never be prepared for war, physically or even mentally. But you shouldn't just think, every day, when this war over? you have to fight. And the stronger you are, more resistant, then sooner, this war will be over. So now, our company become fighters and we call it energy front, and we are fighting for two—and—a—half years. The tech, other companies, our ministry of energy, our government, we're all fighting. And, as i said, the stronger we are, sooner this war will be over. Does that make you, essentially, the general of that unit, that you are in charge of these men? you are in charge of your workforce. And i wonder what that means for you — how do you stay motivated, faced with all those challenges every day? how do you run an organisation and a team of people in a war? you have a purpose. You're fighting for such important things like your people, your children, your future. And not only ukraine, also for the future of european countries. And having this mission in mind, you shouldn't do a lot to motivate yourself. You have a mission and, in some sense, for ukrainian people and for people working in energy industry, especially, it's a historical mission because without electricity, we will not exist, so we will be fighting as much as is necessary to protect ourselves, to protect our partners, and to deliver our mission — keep lights on. Maxim timchenko of dtek, thank you for being with us on the programme once again. We're grateful for your time. Thank you very much. Now, coming up after the break, one of the world's biggest now, the world of drug development is tricky enough for humans, but it's even more complicated if you look at lots of different species. My next guest knows all about working with unpredictable timelines. He's the boss of elanco. It's one of the world's biggest makers of drugs for farm animals and pets. Jeff simmons of elanco, welcome to talking business. Now, on the show this week, we're talking about risk and how that's growing right around the world, and i wonder for you, how you deal with unpredictability in yourjob, how that makes it, maybe, difficult for you to run a business, given the amount of unpredictability — economically, geopolitically — in the world right now. Yeah, a lot of unpredictability in the world. I think what's great about why an animal health industry — a $38 billion global industry — has been very durable, has high multiples on the stock market, is because we've got a lot of diversity to go against the adversity. So, you've got 20 species of animals in elanco that we serve — farmers, veterinarians in more than 100 countries. Half of our business is livestock, half is pets. There's two big tailwind trends that really have made this industry grow more than mid—single digit over the last decade, and that's all around the humanisation of pets — pets coming into the home here in america, that's seven out of ten homes and that's growing globally — and then the second is just protein, and being able to say on the animal protein side, how you do that in an efficient, safe, affordable way, and now a more sustainable way. So, in a very adverse world today, ourfocus is stay focused on those fundamentals that got us here. I know your shares took a bit of a tumble in the summer when you missed that key target. Do you think that shareholders should be a bit more forgiving ofjust how complex what you do is and how many hoops you've got tojump through when it comes to things like regulation? and, inevitably, that means that things could take a bit longer. We're heavily focused on, one, give consumers, our customers, what they want — farmers, veterinarians. Drive innovation. We know innovation is the number—one value driver in our industry. And we've got, you know, six blockbuster products coming between now, that are in the marketplace, and the end of next year. $600—700 million of revenue. It's a commitment we've made by the end of next year in innovation sales, and that will be a key driver. We know that our, you know, medium—long—term value proposition to our investors is compelling. We bring a one—health solution to society, animal health, human health with the protein, and the companionship of pets, and now environmental health, with creating less footprint for farmers around the world, while giving them, actually, you know, a monetary value in doing that as well. So that's our focus. We know that we are one of the more compelling value propositions for the shareholders, and we're focused on doing what's right, which is starting with a focus on the customer. But that doesn't really answer my question, does it? i was asking whether shareholders should be, maybe, a bit more forgiving of what's involved in getting a product to market because, as you know, you may issue guidance saying that you want this product to be available on a certain date and, for whatever reason, it might not happen, and you therefore see shares tank as a result. It's really difficult, isn't it? you're running a complicated business. Should shareholders be more forgiving? well, there's always, you know, differences by shareholders and needs, and what we would say is we give quarterly guidance. We've delivered four quarters of consistent growth, delivered what we've said for over a year now, and we've guided, and we guide into the future accordingly. I think it's important to set i think it's important to set realistic expectations and, yes, explain very transparently the industry you're in. We're in a regulated industry. We know that innovation does have, you know, some volatility with that, and it's ourjob to communicate to our shareholders realistic expectations and, appropriately and deliver consistently, and i think this quarterly guidance is something that we do uniquely to ensure that people, you know, have as limit to any surprise as possible. Jeff simmons, it's good to talk to you. Thanks for being on the programme. Thank you very much. Well, that's it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the programme. Don't forget, there's much more on the global economy on the bbc website or on the smartphone app. Thanks for watching. We'll see you very soon. Bye— bye. Hello. A weather front is approaching us, and that does mean a lot of cloud for many of us. On sunday, quite a few showers too — some of them will be heavy, but i think early in the morning, if you're closer to the north sea coast, there'll be some sunshine. Let's have a look at the satellite picture. Here's the jet stream pushing the weather front towards us. And that weather front brought a spell of very wet weather saturday evening for cornwall and devon, but i want to talk about the next few days and highlight this feature here. This dartboard low coming out of the tropics, that's actually a hurricane which will transition into an extratropical weather system or a mid—latitude weather system. And look at it — if you eyeball it, it's ominously heading in our direction. Or is it? well, actually, there's a lot of uncertainty. It could go to the south of us taking its very strong winds and rain. It could just about clip us. And it looks as though midweek we could see some potentially bad weather across the south of the uk. But it's still some days away and there's really a lot of uncertainty with this weather system. So keep track of the weather forecast. Now here's the here and now, sunday morning temperatures hovering around ten degrees so it's not too cold first thing. And rather a lot of cloud with this weather front sweeping off the atlantic. Remember, pushed by thatjet stream, a lot of showers through the morning and lunchtime across western areas around the irish sea into northern ireland. Again, the further east you are so closer to that north sea coast, the drier it will be. There might be some sunshine around, but i want to show you what's going to happen later on sunday afternoon and evening. The showers in the south really could be quite heavy downpours moving through parts of wales into the midlands and also through the peak district and into northern england, but clearing up towards the south—west later. Now monday, i think the gaps between the showers will be bigger, but there'll still be plenty of showers around, so you'll need your brolly at some point or another, but at least we'll have the sunny spells. How about the temperatures on monday? at best, 17 in the sunshine. Most of us around about 15—16 degrees. So that's monday. How about the week ahead? well, we talked about that potentially bad weather coming to the south. But look at this. By the end of the week we'll see colder northerly winds developing across the uk. And look at that temperature drop in london, from 18 down to 12, cardiff from 17 to 11 degrees. So there's a real chill in the air coming in about a week's time. Bye— bye. Live from washington, this is bbc news. A huge explosion rocks beirut, after the israeli military warns people in a southern suburb of the city to evacuate. This is the scene now live in beirut — where the clock has just hit 3am. And as i was saying. . . Donald trump returns to the stage in butler, pennsylvania — where there was an attempt on his life injuly. And the democratic republic of congo begins a vaccination campaign against the mpox virus, that's killed nearly a thousand people this year. Hello, i'm carl nasman. We start in the middle east, where there have been more israeli strikes in the lebanese capital, beirut.