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Yeah, good luck with that it never happens i actually realised im picking up it is water, i promise you, it is not, you know, 11. 1i7am in the morning and ive already hit the wine. Although, after the week weve all had, i could well do. Ijust happened to be in a Hotel Room, and this is literally the only glass they have in the Hotel Room. I like how you roll, katty, i like how you roll. Its actually vodka which is what we need to get through this election campaign. You do you. Well, welcome to the path to the presidency, everybody. Every week, well get together to talk about this crazy election and bring you our thoughts from the week that weve all been having out on the campaign trail, in the bureau with the candy, but always the worst wi fi. Caitriona, well done, you, for soldiering through. If only people realised how long it took us to get you up the internet. The comms in a comms building. Yeah, the comms in a comms building. Yeah and im actually in New York, where im having a very nice time interviewing Vera Wang and ottolenghi. Completely not political, but its been a very nice little break from politics. 0h, fabulous. We are recording this on thursday, October The 3rd is that right, is my head right . And so, this will be reaching all of you guys on the 4th. And were in the first week of october, and everybody� s already talking about october surprises, so i thought that would be a kind of Fun Place for us to start. I mean, if you look at all the things that are happening both here, in the us, and Around The World and we dont really know the impact of them, so we can kind of rattle through them but on my mind, and id be interested to see if you thought there were any others, theres obviously the aftermath of hurricane helene, in North Carolina a Swing State and the impact that that might have on the election. Theres of course the rising tension in the middle east, with the iranian strike on israel and the impact that might have on the american election. And then, theres Jack Smith Unsealing his charges against Donald Trump in connection with the January 6th case, and the impact that might have on election. Usually when you come to october, there is one october surprise, or potentially two by The End of the month, we get to halloween, and theres been one or two. But its hard for the White House and particularly for the Harris Campaign, because harris is still in this subservient role, in a sense. I mean, shes the subordinate to the principal, to the president , and she has to kind of follow joe biden� s lead on a lot of these issues. And i think its just an interesting way that it highlights the things that are happening, some of which america can control more generally, or cant control, and some of which the Harris Campaign has some control over, and some of which she doesnt, because itll also depend onjoe biden� s agenda to some extent. I think we saw that with the hurricane, really, didnt we . I mean, Donald Trump quick to go to the site of places where people had been worst hit, and criticised Kamala Harris for not doing the same. Whereas you Havejoe Biden and Kamala Harris in the administration saying, well, no, were not going there because weve been told, � please dont come because of how much pressure it puts on the people who are trying to still rescue folks out of their houses, to have a President And Vice president come�. And she has to, as you say, katty, defer to Whatjoe Biden wants to do, because he is still the president. And you still also see that very much so with the escalation that weve been obviously following at the bbc, with the escalation in the middle east. I mean, what weve seen over the past few days has been dramatic, and it doesnt necessarily make it much easier for the Harris Campaign. If you think about the fact that President Biden and his administration have put a lot of invested a lot of time, a lot of effort into trying to negotiate some sort of De Escalation and it has not worked. And, you know, weve seen republicans weve talked to as well say, this is on the Biden Harris Administration, they have emboldened iran you know, we saw iran launch this barrage of missiles towards israel, and the us helped in shooting down some of those missiles. But this will not only be a distraction for the Harris Campaign, but also one where its not easy for the Biden Harris Administration to come out of this with a win. My sense is that it plays into this line that we heard Jd Vance say in the debate and well talk about that, as well, in this which is that, you know, Donald Trump consistently made the world more secure. And when you talk to people just empirically and im sure you find this around the country you know, and you say, gosh, wow, isnt it a busy year . And everyone says, yeah, theresjust so much chaos, right . Theres so much going on in the world. And whatever happens to, for example, Gas Prices which have already ticked up A Little Bit because of whats happening in the middle eastjust at the moment, and that would be a huge blow to the Harris Campaign, if Gas Prices really shot up to 6 again. In dc, i was filling my car up the other day, i saw that its nearly already 5 which is a lot, 5 a gallon for americans is a lot more than 3. So, Gas Prices are ticking up, and obviously that would have a big impact. But i think, more than the individual impacts that you can pinpoint, its just this general sense that there was less chaos in the world that Donald Trump seems to be able to capitalise on. That he was this strong leader, and that they wouldnt have done this whether or not thats true but just that things were sort of under control, and under Americas Control in a way that theyre not at the moment. And it makes america look a little weak the fact that they keep asking prime Minister Netanyahu to do things or not do things, and they keep getting rebuffed, reveals how america doesnt have much leverage, or the White House doesnt have much leverage. And i think all of that helps Donald Trump. If prices start to tick up again, it is going to have a massive impact on how people feel. We already know, you know, these numbers that weve seen in polls that people dont feel good about the economy, even though inflation has been cooling. Well, if that trend starts to reverse again, just think about what that could do ahead of the election. All of this, of course these could be the october surprises. Right before october, orjust as october was getting under way, we had the first and only Vice President ial debate and caitriona, you were actually there, anchoring our coverage from there. Yeah, im just back from New York, indeed. But it feels like were in the Home Stretch now. Were talking about october surprises, and weve had that debate, and it looks like it will be the last setpiece event. Obviously, Kamala Harris has offered another president ial debate, and Donald Trump has declined that. And theres been a lot of chat about that vp debate. But its worth looking at with the benefit of the few clear days that weve had in the meantime. I mean, for me, its the first time that ive been using words like friendly, cordial, amicable, bipartisan in a very long time. You know, in a very long time in us politics since weve been saying that. And the stakes are potentially quite low for a Vice President ial debate i mean, traditionally, it doesnt shift the dial too much in terms of support. You know, as we know, debates ever since that Biden And Trump one, we can never say never about debates. But there are three rules, arent they . Do no harm to the person at the top of the ticket, show that they made a good decision in picking you, that they have good judgment, and introduce yourself to the american people. And i think bothJd Vance and Tim Walz ticked all the boxes for those sort of three key goals. There were no red flag, viral moments. They gave competent performances probably a better performance from Jd Vance than from Tim Walz. I think he introduced himself A Little Bit better to the american people, perhaps, than Tim Walz did. Tim walz mentioned minnesota, i think, more than 20 times so No Doubt as to where hes from anyway, or where hes the governor of. But i do think thatJd Vance had a far stronger performance, and i think he had a different goal. But actually, the polls show something a little different, which i mean, i think i was wrong in my assessment, or i was not reading peoples reactions necessarily right, because my assessment was, oh, my god, this is a bit of a Wash Out for Tim Walz. And yet, the polls suggest that he went up in his Approval Ratings as much asJd Vance did, pretty much. I think he had a slow Half Hour. His first Half Hour was really bad, his first answer was bad, Jd Vance� s was better. His handling of Tiananmen Square was bad as well, as you say, katty, i mean, saying i misspoke about something that actually was a complete misrepresentation is a problem. But i think, when he got onto those safer questions for him, like immigration, economy, housing, and when he kept repeating, well, what ive done in minnesota, he felt more confident. And the exchange about democracy and January 6th, and all that, he got quite angry. But what i thought was interesting aboutJd Vance was i felt we were seeing Jd Vance for president 2028, in that performance. It was about his own campaign for the future. Yeah, i think he had a very different goal. I think he was like, you know, whatever the relationship that he and Donald Trump have, thats not going to change. But even if Donald Trump wins, he can only be president for one term. So regardless, therell have to be a new republican candidate four years from now, and i think thats whatJd Vance was trying to do. Well, if you look at how the Harris Walz Campaign actually clipped up the elements of the debate that they felt good about, of course, there was that one exchange over the 2020 election. And you saw Tim Walz say, you know, that was a Damning Non Answer whenJd Vance dodged a question about who won the 2020 election. I think they feel like that was the win for them. But overall, you have to say that Jd Vance landed some really good answers on the economy, on immigration. You know, of course they were both expecting, you know katty, we talked a bit about preparation for debates like this, they were both expecting to to clash on issues, and it seemed like Tim Walz was perhaps not as prepared for this nice, friendlyJd Vance as he could have been. By the way, why not . You know, if youre prepping for a debate and youre his team i mean, thats one thing i was wondering today, with the reporting that came out saying they were taken by surprise by that. And it does kind of make you wonder any sort of mistake in a campaign at this stage always makes you question the competency of the campaign staff, right, and the campaign strategy. And Rule Number one of Debate Prep not that i have ever prepped a Vice President ial or a president ial candidate for any debate, so its easy to say this sitting in my nice Hotel Room in New York city. I mean, i would assume that any time you prep somebody for a high Stakes Debate like that and lets face it, the only big thing that a Vice President ial candidate does on the campaign is this debate, i mean, thats, you know, 80 of what theyre there for is that you should prep for all alternatives. You should have prepped for vance to come out as the attack dog, which hes been, but you also should have prepped for him to come out with a different persona that knows that his negatives are very high, and that people dont like him, and try and be more likeable. I mean, thatjust seems pretty basic. And so, then you start thinking, oh, my lord, you know, what else are the campaigns not prepping for that they should be prepping for . And one of the things that, sumi, you and i spoke about is the degree to which democrats after that debate are really. I sense, im picking up from the conversations im having and i was texting the whole way through with democratic congresspeople and republican congresspeople as i was watching the debate but theres quite a lot of anxiety amongst democrats about, are they getting out enough . Is this campaign taking its foot off the gas in the last month, and theyre just not doing enough events . And i know that fundraisings been a priority for Kamala Harris herself and shes done a lot of that, and they have raised a tonne of money. But i think the sense from democratic strategists and congresspeople that im speaking to now is theyjust need to do a lot more of these events. And the other issue that, perhaps there was a surprising exchange, i thought, at the debate was around abortion, and the position that we heard from Jd Vance. I mean, when have we ever thought wed hear a republican Vice President ial candidate or any republican for that matter say, the american people dont trust us when it comes to abortion, we have to earn their Trust Back . And i think that also potentially was one of those moments, katty, that threw Tim Walz A Little Bit. And, you know, it was quite an extraordinary thing forJd Vance to say. And in the Spin Room afterwards, on our live coverage, we had lots of people, the surrogates from all the campaigns coming through to talk to us and one of those we spoke to was Donald Trumer, and i asked him about that. This is what he said. Do you think people will have been surprised to hearJd Vance say that american people dont trust the republican party, when it comes to abortion and reproductive rights . And he said, we have to earn that Trust Back. I think thats accurate. I think i thinkJd Vance handled and thats always a sticky subject on the republican side, especially in the climate of today, and hes from ohio, where they had a referendum that voted 75 in the state and its a republican state, 13 or so you know, that voted for it. So, you know, Jd Vance went into uncomfortable sort of republican territory,. And he handled that issue and the question with a response i in a far more articulate fashionl than most republicans can handle the easy stuff, for us. Thats why i said it was such a masterclass. I mean, hes able to acknowledge those things, hes able to talk about that change and its not a sound bite, right . He actually understands these issues. So, that was quite interesting commentary from Donald Trumer who, by the way, was absolutely delighted withJd Vance� s performance, as you might imagine, because he told me. Theyre friends. Yes, but he had told he told me in that interview that he had to really push his father to pickJd Vance for Vice President. And he said, now i can say to dad, � i told you so. I mean, actually, the one other thing that in the context of abortion, thats interesting, thats just coming out this week is melania trumps book. And the guardian had an excerpt from that the book is not out until next week where she comes out very firmly, i mean, like, notjust, well, i think women should have a right to choose, but i understand the pro life position, like, absolutely, women should always have a right to choose and always have a right to have an abortion. I mean, she goes very far on that spectrum much further than i imagined Jd Vance would be happy with, and that many of the evangelicals, you know, conservatives who were keen On Overturning Roe V wade would be happy with. So theyre kind of and i wonder whether the Trump Family and Trump Campaign are trying to kind of shift, you know, the Maga Movement A Little Bit on this on this particular issue. On this particular issue. So, well wait to see how the debate all plays out, and if it has any effect at all which, as weve said, it probably wont. But there will have been people tuning into that in those Battleground States. And theres new polling out this week, sumi, youve been looking at about the potential impact of latino voters, again, in some of those critical States Arizona and nevada come to mind. Yeah, there was a really interesting poll out by nbc, telemundo, and cnbc, and they were looking at where latino voters stand right now, as were just a few weeks away, away from the election. And the top line from this poll is that Vice President harris is leading Donald Trump with latino voters, but by the lowest amount for democrats in four president ial cycles. So, that is actually really, really interesting information. And the reason it matters, of course, is were talking about a pretty significant piece of the electorate latinos at the moment make up around 15 of eligible voters. And caitriona, katty, im sure you see this, you know, statistic pulled out every election cycle, but every 30 seconds, a hispanic voter turns 18, becoming eligible to vote. So not only an important part of the electorate, but growing very quickly, because its a young part of the electorate as well. It is always important to say, hispanic voters are not a monolith, obviously so you do have big differences in generations. If you talk about first generation versus second versus third, as you move further away from the story of immigration, obviously the ties to the culture of origin, if you can call it that, do change and adapt. And then, the communities of origin as Well Matter so, you know, voters from, lets say, who have roots in mexico or central America Versus Venezuela or, as we know, there is that very conservative Voting Bloc of cubans in florida. That all matters. That being said, what this poll i think showed that was really, really interesting and i pulled up the numbers, just because i found it fascinating it shows that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are evenly splitting the vote among latino men, so each getting around 47 , but she has a 26 Point Lead among latino women. So i mean, that is a really significant gender gap, and it made me think about the inroads that Donald Trump and his campaign have been making with men. And obviously, you know, theres a part of it that is this image of masculinity and strength. I mean, at the republican national convention, that was very, very clear, that that image was part of the campaign. But also, you know, there is this idea that latino voters, hispanic voters, that they see immigration as their top issue but the further they move away in generations from that story of immigration, the more other issues become important to them. So, for example, the economy and we spoke to Vivek Ramaswamy about some of the areas where he thinks the Trump Campaign can message really effectively. He said, look, you had economic growth in the Trump Campaign, you had wage growth, you had stability, you had lower inflation. To your point, katty, earlier, you had no major conflicts that the us was involved in Around The World and that is what matters to voters. And i sat down with Chuck Rocha, who is a Democrat Strategist who worked on Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign, and he was saying, look, latino men are the fastest growing part of the non College Educated Men in the Workforce Segment a long phrase to say that it is important to think about the fact that men in general, if they are tending towards Donald Trump, latino men are very much part of this. But he said, look, it is really important in these Battleground States that democrats target them with ads about work, about the honour of work, the dignity of work. But i dont know, katty, what your sense is of how pivotal theyre going to be in this election. So theres a really interesting book that came out a few months ago by Mike Madrid its called the latino century. And It Charts what youve just found in this poll, sumi, which is that first generation hispanics many of whom came over in the 1960s, who tend to be predominantly spanish speaking, more spanish speaking are more interested in voting democratic. Which is why, up until about 2012, until about the 2016 election, really, democrats were convinced that they were about to face this huge, big demographic Demographic Shift in theirfavour, because they assumed that hispanics would vote like that first generation of voters who came over in the big wave in the � 60s and � 70s. And then, what we found is that i think its 80 of latino voters are actually us born, and they are much younger, and they tend to speak primarily english, and they vote, as White Americans do. Now conservative thinkers and political strategists are thrilled with this, and they say, not only because it means that theyre getting more republican leaning voters, but also because they say, look, it shows that you Cant Dice and slice the population according to Race And Gender and ethnicity, which is something, obviously that is of interest to conservatives, that they like the idea that weve moved beyond the kind of diversity, equity, and Inclusion World where people identify by race. But actually, increasingly, hispanic voters, like white voters, like black voters identified by class more than anything else. And if Donald Trump is winning, people in white, Working Class in Working Class groups without college degrees, it would make sense that hes also winning hispanic voters who are Working Class and dont have college degrees. So, thats the dividing line, is education now, and rural city but rural city is often a reflection of education, rather than, i think, the race issue. And we see that with all ethnic communities, really, dont we . Like the new arrivals have those issues around immigration, and the longer youre here, you tend to move from being a democrat to a republican. But the point you were mentioning there, sumi, Earlierabout Work and using that as a sort of Target Point is one thats been said to me, as well, by people within both parties, that they feel that thats an area to target men and women, and younger voters, and particularly in somewhere like nevada, where you have, you know, so many people employed in the service industry, in the hospitality industry, around Las Vegas who are not on good wages, who want to be on better wages. The issue of being able to afford a home, afford rent is a big deal in nevada, in arizona. And thats whats interesting, i think about, you know, Donald Trumps idea to have no tax on tips which Kamala Harris is now saying, as well which some economists have said is not actually workable, you cant not Tax Part of the earnings of part of the population. But its interesting that theyre kind of identifying something really tangible like that. That people who do a big part of their take Home Pay is their tips, and not paying tax on that would be a sizeable benefit. And you were mentioning Mike Madrid, katty, i should say that Chuck Rocha and Mike Madrid have this great podcast on the latino vote that i can absolutely recommend listening to if im allowed to plug. Theyll be delighted with that plug. Always good to give people tips on what to read and listen to. But he filled out that thought A Little Bit more when he was telling me about, you know, the fact that he thinks there are so many ads that the democrats are running to latino women about abortion. The idea of work is not just, you know, these. There are many hispanic men who are in the Construction Sector put together an ad thats not just about the guy putting on his hard hat going to work, but also the man putting a suit on and going to the office, because the latino experience in the us spans those generations, spans class. And that is something that he thinks would help democrats win over some of those voters. Yeah, i mean, i think one otherjust broader point on what i thought what was interesting in that polling, sumi, that you were looking at was, theres a shift going on, a kind of quite important, seismic shift going on in the country where america is becoming just generally much more conservative about immigration. And the shifts of numbers of people who think that immigrants represent a good thing for the united states is declining, at the same time that the number of people who think you should really enforce border security, both democrats and republicans, is growing. And i think it kind of coincides with a moment where america is also looking, flirting with isolationism in a Way And Youve got this very interesting poll that came out of the Chicago Council recently, showing that for the first time since they ever did their polling, a majority of americans dont think that america should lead the world and be engaged in the world. And i think those two things kind of go together as a slight kind of isolationism when it comes to immigration, the value of immigration, even amongst hispanic voters to the country, and this sense that america doesnt need to be as engaged in the world as it has been since the second world war. And its a kind of slightly conservative retreating in the country which obviously is something that Donald Trump can tap into. Well, we will see what is tapped into and otherwise over the course of the next week. As i say, were in the home straight now, werejust approaching the one month to d day, although. Back to my vodka. Yeah, i will note that i was looking at statistics there, that almost 900,000 people have already voted already. So every day is Polling Day from here on out. But great to chat to you both, as always, and i will see you next week. Goodbye. See you then, bye, guys. Hello. For many of us, friday was a pretty mild day thanks to the south to south Easterly Winds. The best of the sunshine was across england and wales. We had a top temperature of 18 celsius around the london area, but for scotland and northern ireland, there was a lot more cloud, and that has been bringing outbreaks of rain over recent houis. Now on the satellite picture, you can see the Weather Front thats bringing that zone of cloudier weather to the North West of the uk. A strong Jet Stream continues to develop this weather system, and its going to be bringing some very Heavy Rain into the republic of ireland, where theres probably going to be some flooding across southern areas. The front itself is very slow moving, so over the next few hours were going to keep the largely clear skies across england and wales. 1 2 fog patches possible in the east, where temperatures could dip as low as about 3 4 celsius in the coldest spots. But across the North West of the uk, temperatures staying up into double figures. Because weve got that cloud, theres a fair breeze around here, but we also have a bit of rain to come as well. Now heading into the first part of saturday, there will be some pulses of Heavy Rain that works into northern ireland. The rain tending to come and go, so there might be some brighter spells for the afternoon here. Rain at times, too, for western and northern areas of scotland, but away from that for eastern and southern scotland, for the bulk of eastern wales and all of england, really, should be a fine and a dry day with plenty of sunshine. Its going to be another mild one. Top temperatures could hit 18 celsius once again. Now these Weather Fronts will then push eastwards through saturday night, weakening as they run into our area of high pressure to the east, so just a few patches of light rain. There will be some damp weather, then, for some as we start off sunday morning, but weve got a more pronounced band of heavier rain that through the afternoon will spread into northern ireland. This time, wales and south West England getting a bit of a soaking, too. The south to south Easterly Winds continue to drag up the milder air, so temperatures above average for most. Looking at around 17 in london and cardiff and about 11; for edinburgh. Then into next week, this area of low pressure is going to continue to fire showers or some longer spells of rain across the uk. Meanwhile, a low pressure perhaps to our south contains the remnants of hurricane kirk. Well, that could bring some very strong winds to parts of western europe. Western france looking vulnerable at the moment. But here in the uk, its an unsettled looking week, quite windy at times, with showers or longer spells of rain next week. Bye bye. Live from washington, this is bbc news. Israeli Air Strikes destroy a key road near Lebanons Border Crossing with syria. Thousands have been fleeing that Way Israel says it was being used to transport weapons. Kamala harris and Donald Trump Step Up campaigning in key Swing States across the us, with a month to go until election day. The World Health Organization approves the first diagnostic test for Mpox In its effort to ease a Disease Crisis in central africa. Hello, iam hello, i am caitriona perry. You are very welcome. Israel says its forces have hit more than 2,000 sites since it began its Ground Operation in Southern Lebanon on tuesday

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