War could expand toWards the Litany River and last longer than a short term campaign. We are waiting news from that Security Cabinet Meeting in jerusalem which got under way a couple of hours ago, the word is the army is awaiting a signalfrom is the army is awaiting a signal from the government. Let us spike tojon donnison, what do we know of what is being discussed tonight, john, and what sort of instructions might be given to the army . What sort of instructions might be given to the army . Well, the anticipation be given to the army . Well, the anticipation is be given to the army . Well, the anticipation is that be given to the army . Well, the anticipation is that the anticipation is that the instructions to launch some sort of Ground Incursion going to happen, and it could happen really any moment now, certainly within the next few hours, we heard from the Defence Minister earlier today, he was up on the northern Border Meeting troops up there, israel has been reinforcing the number of of troops on the border and he said that the next phase of the operation against hezbollah could happen as soon as today. Well, that means in the next few hours. So, i think the big question is, as you suggested in your introduction, is what scale will it be on, and what form will it be on, and what form will it be on, and what form will it take . Now it might be quite incremental, you might get an incursion into one part of southern lebanon, spend some time there before moving on to a different part. I am not sure we are going to get sort of thousands, Tens Of Thousands of troops, tanks go going over the border at all once but some operation it seems is very much imminent. Operation it seems is very much imminent imminent. Does the Prime Minister. Imminent. Does the Prime Minister, binyamin imminent. Does the Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, feel after the events of the last week or so, that this is playing well for him politically . I playing well for him politically . Playing well for him politically . I think he absolutely politically . I think he absolutely does politically . I think he absolutely does and l politically . I think he i absolutely does and one politically . I think he absolutely does and one of the key facts i think is unlike the War in gaza where there are huge divisions within israeli society, within the israeli government, the military, about prime Minister Netanyahus Strategy there, many people of course think he should be pursuing more forcefully a Ceasefire And HostageRelease Deal in gaza, he has got more united support for the operation he is carrying ought against ehezbollah in len. I think heel very much feels he has got hezbollah under the cosh at the moment, and he is determined to push forWard. Jan determined to push forWard. Jon donnison injerusalem. Thank donnison in jerusalem. Thank ormuch. Donnison injerusalem. Thank ormuch. There have been more israeli attacks, hamas says the leader of their operation was killed by a strike in the south. Lucy williamson has been to the northern border and sent us this report. Israels army is moving closer to that Ground Invasion. The lebanese border, just Awe Couple of miles away, the next Red Line in this War. Tens of thousands of forces moved up from gaza, were told by the Chief Of Staff they would soon step on enemy soil, and tonight, reports from us media, that a limited Ground Invasion could start as soon as today. At the border, israels Defence Minister kept up the suspense. Translation ,. ,. , Translation Israelwould Use all means required Translation Israelwould Use all means required to Translation Israelwould Use all means required to return all means required to return evacuated communities to their homes. Forces from the air, the sea, and on land. Sea, and on land. Israel has been talking sea, and on land. Israel has been talking up sea, and on land. Israel has been talking up its sea, and on land. Israel has| been talking up its readiness to launch a Ground Offensive against hezbollah, but sending these tanks across the border would mean a very different kind of battle to the Air Strikes and intelligence it has relied on so far. Fighting hezbollah, on territory it controls, territory where it has been planning a confrontation like this for years. In the Border Town they watched israel step up its offensive this month against Hezbollah Lead ever, its communication, it weapons. Many say they shouldnt stop there. It weapons. Many say they shouldnt stop there. See, all this. All this shouldnt stop there. See, all this. All this is shouldnt stop there. See, all this. All this is from shouldnt stop there. See, all this. All this is from now. This. All this is from now. These are all the alert sirens to Warn you there might be something coming toWards you i dont have a time to go to the safe place, i dont have a time. ~. Safe place, i dont have a time. ~. ,. ,. ,. , time. What needs to happen for ou to time. What needs to happen for you to feel time. What needs to happen for you to feel safe . Time. What needs to happen for you to feel safe . To time. What needs to happen for you to feel safe . To kill time. What needs to happen for you to feel safe . To kill all you to feel safe . To kill all the terrorists, you to feel safe . To kill all the terrorists, and you to feel safe . To kill all the terrorists, and finish, i the terrorists, and finish, finish this situation. Every day rocket. Finish this situation. Every day rocket, rockets finish this situation. Every day rocket, rockets and i finish this situation. Every | day rocket, rockets and The Americans said dont, dont, dont americans said dont, dont, dont. Come on. Come on. Every morning, dont. Come on. Come on. Every morning, boom, boom. It is not iife~ life. Israels me. Israels prime me. Israels Prime Minister life. Israels Prime Minister often proud of defying his allies, is looking beyond hezbollah, to its backer iran. Warning against any retaliation from tehran. Against any retaliation from tehran. ,. , tehran. There is nowhere in The Middle East tehran. There is nowhere in the middle East Israel tehran. There is nowhere in the middle East Israel cannot middle East Israel cannot reach. There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people, and protect our country. With every passing moment, the regime is bringing you, the Noble Persian people, closer to the abyss. Noble persian people, closer to the abys the abyss. Miscalculation was once seen the abyss. Miscalculation was once seen as the abyss. Miscalculation was once seen as the the abyss. Miscalculation was once seen as the biggest the abyss. Miscalculation was once seen as the biggest risk| once seen as the biggest risk in triggering full War'>Scale War on the border but israels assessment appears to have changed. The miscalculation many fear now is faith in the idea of a limited War. With me here in the studio is Lyse Doucet, our chief international correspondent, also joining international correspondent, alsojoining usjohn international correspondent, also joining Usjohn Hoffman international correspondent, alsojoining Usjohn Hoffman a Research Fellow at also joining Usjohn Hoffman a Research Fellow at the kato institute. If i could start with you Lyse Doucet. Thai have been saying the new War aims is to change the situation on the ground such they can get 60,000 people back to their homes in northern israel, to do that, they have to do two things, one cut out the rock rockets and rule out any similar October 7 style attack, how does this limited operation they are talking about achieve that . I think this is part of a much bigger offensive by israel, and which it is carrying out attacks on lebanon that have gone beyond anything, and with greater results that anything could have imagined. Most of all hezbollah, we have seen israel take out pretty much all the top leader she, including at the Top Mass Monarchs not just him, week after week they have taken out key members such as the whole leadership destruction, the phrase you use decapitated. It took out a lot of mid level operatives in those massive, Mass Cashty casualty attack. In the Back And Forth of Rocket Fire that has been going over the border now, almost since the War'>Gaza War began, it has been degrading hezbollahs infrastructure, but i think we have talked about this before, you and i on this programme, you and i on this programme, you can only achieve so much in the air, and as with heard from jon donnison, israel now believes it has, it has the wind in its sails, that with the success, with the population, of israel behind it, and with the kind of unity of political and military leadership, which was very much, very publicly not present on the War'>Gaza War, they feel it is the time tole strike. And thatis is the time tole strike. And that is why we are hearing about these limited operation, limited could mean a lot of thing, some may remember that at the, in the early months of the War'>Gaza War, before they went in with a massive Ground Operation and that are still operating Land Inside Gaza they did hit and run raids, targeted for specific objectives to destroy this or destroy that, they have been doing some Air Raids across the border and this is what we think may happen first. They dont have enough troops, at the border and enough armour to carry out something bigger, something bigger may not be the objective although we have heard the head of the Northern Command saying she wants to establish a Buffer Zone and that would be a return to history. Zone and that would be a return to history to history. Help us with that john, if to history. Help us with that john. If we to history. Help us with that john, if we were to history. Help us with that john, if we were talking to history. Help us with that l john, if we were talking about a Buffer Zone, presumably we are talking about taking out this threat, they are known as the radwan force, the special Operations Unit that co operate cloy to the border what is that and how far would they have to go o across lebanon to deal with it. I go 0 across lebanon to deal with it. ~ go 0 across lebanon to deal with it. ~ , with it. I think this is the question. With it. I think this is the question, is with it. I think this is the question, is whether with it. I think this is the| question, is whether this with it. I think this is the question, is whether this War you know. Question, is whether this War you know, whether an israeli push you know, whether an israeli push into you know, whether an israeli push into lebanon would be more limited push into lebanon would be more limited in push into lebanon would be more limited in nature or whether we are looking at a full Scale Ground are looking at a full Scale Ground campaign, the, netanyahu said he ground campaign, the, netanyahu said he is ground campaign, the, netanyahu said he is willing to push forWard said he is willing to push forWard into lebanon with Full Force forWard into lebanon with Full Force and forWard into lebanon with Full Force and aside from just the Risk Force and aside from just the risk of force and aside from just the risk of pushing into be lebanon, you know, how far do you need lebanon, you know, how far do you need to lebanon, you know, how far do you need to go . To what extent do the you need to go . To what extent do the israelis feel they need to degrade hezbollahs capabilities . But the broader risk i capabilities . But the broader risk i would want to highlight. The Risk Risk i would want to highlight. The risk of regional escalation, all the different splash escalation, all the different Splash Point tos that have flair Splash Point tos that have flair add up Splash Point tos that have Flairadd Up since Splash Point tos that have flair add up since October 7th and israel subsequent War into gaza, and israel subsequent War into gaza, you and israel subsequent War into gaza, you know, this has the potential gaza, you know, this has the potential of devouring the Region Potential of devouring the region quickly, and you know, the chances of miscalculation are still the chances of miscalculation are still incredibly high. Is there are still incredibly high. There a are still incredibly high. Is there a dilemma for the israelis here, that things are easier than they thought, that perhaps they bite off more than they can chew . Chew . fits perhaps they bite off more than they can chew . Chew . They can chew . Chew . As they liner they can chew . Chew . As they linger and they can chew . Chew . As they linger and decide they can chew . Chew . As they linger and decide whether they can chew . Chew . As they linger and decide whether they aring linger and decide whether they aring to linger and decide whether they aring to push into lebanon, you are risking aring to push into lebanon, you are risking a now multi front War, are risking a now multi front War. One are risking a now multi front War, one that will be likely a costiy War, one that will be likely a costly War of attrition, one of your costly War of attrition, one of your colleagues just mentioned hezbollah has been preparing for this, hezbollah has been preparing for this, Fighting On HezbollahS Territory but then with all these S Territory but then with all these other regional actors involved these other regional actors involved from Iraq And Syria and involved from Iraq And Syria and yemen, the actors that are, that have and yemen, the actors that are, that have been escalating alongside Israel And Hezbollah since alongside Israel And Hezbollah since October 7th, the chances of miscalculation here are tremendous. Of miscalculation here are tremendous. ~ ,. , �. , tremendous. We shouldnt forget that unifil tremendous. We shouldnt forget that unifil soldiers tremendous. We shouldnt forget that unifil soldiers in that unifil soldiers in lebanon, they have been there since 2006 but presumably their brief is limited at the moment. The brief is very limited, and they themselves have come under attack, they have taken casualties in the months of escalating tension along the border but they are there to monitor what is described as a blue line, in which that was set in 2006, after the last major War between Israel And Hezbollah, and as part of that agreement, hezbollah was Sup Poeted withdraw back to supposed to withdraw back to the river, this is what israel wants to achieve now and beyond that line now, is the force that line now, is the force that israel will now, if it wants to clear the area, the State Department used the Word Infrastructure but it wont just be physical infrastructure, there is this radwan force, a rapid Intervention Force which has been training for decade, it is a specialforces and been training for decade, it is a Special Forces and notjust been trained by heads in lebanon, but syria, it has been honing its tactic, being trained for these operation and this is what israel has in mind. We dont see any evidence this is the case, but when israel talks about a repeat of October 7th. Th. The add Wan Units whole purpose was to some Day Ross the border, into israel, and make sure that never happens, this would certainly although Israel Hasnt expressed this, want to push hezbollah back they will is have to push back the rakdwan is have to push back the Ra Kdwan forces is have to push back the rakdwan forces as well. We have no idea what the state is after weeks of escalation by israel. It is right. It is probably more than a decapitation because they have taken out the first, second, third run of the Hezbollah Leadership, such we dont know who is in charge. We got a statement from the groups deputy leader, first address from senior figure we have had since Hassan Nasrallahs killing. What did you make of that statement, and does it, i mean, does it suggest to you that there is some panic within the leadership of the group at the moment . I leadership of the group at the moment . Moment . I am sure there is anic moment . I am sure there is panic in moment . I am sure there is panic in this moment . I am sure there is panic in this Group Moment . I am sure there is panic in this group because L Moment . I am sure there is. Panic in this group because of like your panic in this group because of like your colleague mentioned, you know. Like your colleague mentioned, you know, they succeeded in killing you know, they succeeded in Killing Nasse monarchs a lot of high Killing Nasse monarchs a lot of high level commanders but what i high level commanders but what i would high level commanders but what i would say, express a bit of scepticism regarding the effectiveness of decapitating the heads of terrorist organisations, we have seen this organisations, we have seen this before where the group continues to operate, where the infrastructure of the group largely infrastructure of the group largely remains intact, so yes, hezbollah is certainly right now. Hezbollah is certainly right now, wounded and you know, confused now, wounded and you know, confused but i think you know, once confused but i think you know, once the confused but i think you know, once the fighting enters into lebanon, and once it is on hezbollah S Territory i think you are hezbollah S Territory i think you are talking ability a different game here. One factor in all of this different game here. One factor in all of this is different game here. One factor in all of this is iran, different game here. One factor in all of this is iran, their in all of this is iran, their strategic power in the region is through the proxy, but the biden administration is clearly worried there is going to be a similar Style Response to the one in april which they had to get involved in, where do you any the thinking is in tehran at the moment and the risk this poses to the regime there. President biden or senior american officials have been Warning iran indirectly, if iran does retaliate as it did in april. I was in israel then, when more than 300 rockets came across the border, Cruise Missile and drones, President Biden has Warned the retaliation would be harsher. There are no good options for iran now. It knows that if it responds, retaliates as it has been threatening to do, since the hamas Political Leader was assassinated on iranian soil, and we understand that they held whack because the united states sent none direct messaging saying dont retaliate. A ceasefire is in sight and there are reports iran feels embittered it was led down this route and tricked and israel not only did it not agree to a ceasefire, but it launched this front into lebanon. Iran is stuck between two objectives, first of all it feels honour bound to show it is defending allies, there are reports of anger being expressed saying iran left us, didnt protect us because Hassan Nasrallah was hand in glove with iran, iran had not come to his assistance. On the other handen irans main objective is the preservation of the republic, the preservation of the military programme, the preservation of a nuclear programme that people are speculates whether it wants to push further, to accelerate that to develop a nuke weapon. It feels torn in two direction, initially i think it was reeling, the fact the first thing it did was take the Supreme Leader to a safe location means it must have had a sharp intake of breath, that. Then it has to decide whey to do, and there is also a sense in iran, and this has been said throughout this conflict, is they believe that prime Minister Netanyahu was baiting them. Trying to trap them, draw them. Trying to trap them, draw them in, so that israel can attack, and that would also draw the united states. Quickly, on that, john, it has been an israeli strategy for some time to get The Americans and the iranians faces to face, do you they still is the strategy, i mean there are tentacles across the region but Binyamin Netanyahu thinks the real strategy to go for the head. I real strategy to go for the head. ,. , head. I agree with your colleague, head. I agree with your colleague, i head. I agree with your colleague, i think head. I agree with your colleague, i think you i head. I agree with your colleague, i think you know, this colleague, i think you know, this has colleague, i think you know, this has been the strategy of Binyamin Netanyahu for any excess Binyamin Netanyahu for any excess of 3. Decades, i think that excess of 3. Decades, i think that is excess of 3. Decades, i think that is precisely what is lingering in the back of Binyamin Netanyahus mind right now, Binyamin Netanyahus mind right now. Is Binyamin Netanyahus mind right now, is trying to push for escalation in a manner that draws escalation in a manner that draws the us into the fray and we are draws the us into the fray and we are seen the senior us officials we are seen the senior us officials Warn against this, the officials Warn against this, the chairman of the joint Chief Of Staff the chairman of the joint Chief Of Staff said a War between Hezbollah And Israel is likely to drag Hezbollah And Israel is likely to drag iran and the united states to drag iran and the united states directly into the fray. Us secretary of defence loyals a tonne us secretary of defence loyals a tonne said the conflict could match a tonne said the conflict could match or a tonne said the conflict could match or exceed the casualties we have match or exceed the casualties we have seen in gaza, so from my stand we have seen in gaza, so from my Stand Point as analyst of us Middle East Policy i would say the us Middle East Policy i would say the Alarm Bells should be going say the Alarm Bells should be going on say the Alarm Bells should be going on and this should be alerted alerted. Alerted. Aturreted. Averted. We will take a break. We will be right back after this. Welcome back, a line of breaking news, we will concentrate in the second part of the programme and that is hurricane. The Death Toll i with was previously round the 100 mark has risen to 600, there was one county in North Caroline Parliament who said they had a missing Persons List of round 600, so there is a very fair chance i think that Death Toll is going to rise even beyond that, we have seen horrific scenes across five states. So we will concentrate on that a bit in the second hour of our programme but we reason continuing to focus on an Ground Offensive which maybe imminent in lebanon all know the strikes have been carrying out throughout the day, in the western part of beirut, people were stopping to look in disbelief at an Apartment Building struck by israeli rockets overnight. Its the first known strike in the sunni muslim part of the city in two decades. That area was largely spared from any attacks and the Popular Front for the militant group of palestine said three members had been killed in that strike, it does add to that sense of foreboding, plenty of people living the city. The number who have crossed into syria now over 100,000. The White House still urging restraint from israel but there was a hint of the tension in the relationship after Ale Number of escalations in recent weeks that the biden administration seemed not to be privy to. Administration seemed not to be ri to. � ,. , administration seemed not to be ri to. ,. , privy to. Are you aWare, comfortable privy to. Are you aWare, comfortable with privy to. Are you aWare, comfortable with their l privy to. Are you aWare, comfortable with their plans. Plans. ~. ,. , comfortable with their plans. Plans. A,. ,. , plans. More than you might know. Plans. More than you might know we plans. More than you might know. We should plans. More than you might know. We should have plans. More than you might know. We should have a know. We should have a ceasefire now. Let us get the view from the State Department, our correspondent Tom Bateman this is there in washington. A sense of frustration i thought in the president s voice there, tom. Yes, absolutely i mean, the continuing to stick to the line that we heard from the administration last week which they want the israelis to stop and they want a ceasefire. Now i have to say, the briefing we had here the State Department within the last hour, with the spokesperson was not so emphatic as that, far more emphasis on israels right as he put it to kill Hassan Nasrallah, to defend itself and some of the lines we heard previously from The American administration, but i think what all of this gives you, christian is a sense in which how The American position here is being fundamentally driven ljy is being fundamentally driven by the situation on the ground which is itself been driven at the moment by the israeli actions, and we are seeing as each Day Guy past The Americans decide to to recalibrate or switch. Remember, it was last week that the us led a diplomatic charge at the united nations, calling for restraight Call Fog for a ceasefire and within that same time frame the israelis continuing what has been a sharp escalation in lebanon via Air Strikes and culminating with the Kid Killing of Hassan Nasrallah. I pushed the spokesman on this during the briefing, saying look, you have been calling for restraint, hasnt that failed. He wouldnt address it directly but said they had the rights to kill Hassan Nasrallah and The American supported that. When i put to him the fact that according to officials more than 1,000 people killed, no civilians, more than One Million people display placed according to the united nations, this has the potential to be a game changer. He put it like this, that you know o while he said again, that the israelis may be trying to enable diplomacy, strengthen their diplomatic hand through their diplomatic hand through the military action, that on the military action, that on the other hand they also have the other hand they also have the capacity to release intended consequences as he put it and miscalculation, so they are still worried about where this is headed. Are still worried about where this is headed. Presumably in Mind Subpoena this is headed. Presumably in Mind Subpoena the this is headed. Presumably in Mind Subpoena the open this is headed. Presumably in l Mind Subpoena the open door, they are trying to keep, with they are trying to keep, with the iran nations that would be, they would need to speak to the day after this War finishes. Well, i mean of course in that part of the diplomacy remains very important to The Americans, whenever Antony Blinken makes trips to The Middle East and he has made ten since October 7th, it is almost exclusively involving both israel and arab countries but you know, ithink israel and arab countries but you know, i think as you suggest, this puts pressure on those relationships. Tam those relationships. Tom itateman those relationships. Tom bateman thank those relationships. Tom bateman thank you those relationships. Tom bateman thank you very | those relationships. Tom bateman thank you very much. Those relationships. Tom bateman thank you very much. We are going to say goodbye to our viewers on pbs, thank you very much for watching. The rest of the viewers are still with us, we will continue our conversation with Lyse Doucet and john hoffman. Pick up doucet and john hoffman. Pick up that thought for me and the dilemma for The American administration, frustrating as tom says because to all intents and purposes they have been keptin and purposes they have been kept in the dark in recent weeks, but how much pressure are they under from their rab allies in the region . I are they under from their rab allies in the region . Allies in the region . I think tom gave allies in the region . I think tom gave a allies in the region . I think tom gave a Great Allies in the region . I think| tom gave a great overview, allies in the region . I think tom gave a great overview, on the one hand we see this, this coming out of washington about frustration, and biden, not seeing Eye To eye with netanyahu. But we havent seen change that would prevent any of these things that the united states says it doesnt want from happening. On the other hand talking about how Americas Air partners in the Region View what is happening, our arab partners dont want regional escalation either but like i said earlier in, a War between hezbollah has been feared so greatly because of its potential, baz of its ability to suck in the entirety of the region and that confrontation we talked about previously, that is most feared between the united states and iran, of which Arab States dont want any part of. It is such a tricky dont want any part of. It is such a tricky area dont want any part of. It is such a tricky area this, dont want any part of. It is| such a tricky area this, isnt it for the western governmentings, i have been reading the comments here from David Lammy who says, speaking about the death of Hassan Nasrallah, he doesnt mourn the Department Of Health of the head of a pros scribed terrorist organisation, while they are trying to restrain, they are trying to restrain, they dont. They are trying to restrain, they dont. It they are trying to restrain, they dont. They are trying to restrain, they dont. It hardly needs tellin they dont. It hardly needs telling but they dont. It hardly needs telling but as they dont. It hardly needs telling but as a they dont. It hardly needs telling but as a reminder, i they dont. It hardly needsl telling but as a reminder, any of these operations carried out by israel, just one of them carried out would have been an a major moment in The Middle East. Now they are happening almost every day, you dont know what will happen next. Than subpoena why, both civilians, members of armed groups are, foreign governments, western foreign minister, everyone is reeling, having to be seen to say something. You have przewodow saying yes, it has become a mantra for him, i want a ceasefire, he must say it in his sleep. Ijust doesnt happen so David Lammy has to be criticised to be seen. Their concern is that the region is going up the ladder, and this is what we have been discussing, the higher you go when do you actually tip over . We are all involved in the celtics of is it a War, is it not a War . It is a War. . There is an all out War that could get worse, with hezbollah it seems to have some capacity to fire rockets, firing them at into tel aviv, into huntingdon life sciences, the houthis are trying, which is the Wild Card in all of this, they dont have any restraints, they will get involved and then of queers will iran do and have they decided what they want to do and behind it is notjust united states but the united states heading into an election. States heading into an election. G. ,. , states heading into an election. ,. ,. , ~ ,. , election. Ok, john, thank you for ou election. Ok, john, thank you for you company. Election. Ok, john, thank you for you company. Lyse election. Ok, john, thank you for you company. Lyse is election. Ok, john, thank you | for you company. Lyse is going to come back at 9. 00 because we will continue to watch events on the border. Border. We are still waiting for news from the Security Cabinet Meeting which started round 7 30i7b. It has been going for round three hours, we will of course bring it to you. You are watching bbc news. Hello, im christian fraser. Youre watching the context on bbc news. We have the latest from conservative Party Conference in birmingham as the partys four leadership Candidates Audition for the topjob. Sport and for a full round up, from the Bbc Sport centre, heres jane dougall. Southampton could get out of the Relegation Zone with a win against bournemouth. It doesnt look like that will happen at the moment. After 30 minutes its 1 0 to the home side. Evan nelson with his first goalfor The Club. First goal for The Club. Southampton are first goalfor The Club. Southampton are in first goal for The Club. Southampton are in trouble. Just one point after five matches. Bournemouth are in 13th place in the league. Manchester united are expected to stick with their manager erik ten hag for matches against Porto And Aston villa this week, despite their embarassing defeat against tottenham at old trafford on sunday. United are 12th in the league, withjust Seven Points thats their joint fewest after six Premier League games in The Clubs history. Senior sources at Manchester United have told Bbc Sport it is Business As Usual and that The Club is focusing on the two upcoming matches. However, no official comment has been made. Heres our Sports Editor dan roan. Given the fact they find themselves languishing down in 12th place just