Transcripts For BBCNEWS Path to the Presidency 20240930

To run over and catch him. It was extremely nice to get away, even forfive or six days. I have to say, part of me felt like id like to bury my head in the sand, but i couldnt do that because the only thing, of course, everybody wanted to talk about on my holiday was Guess What The American election. Actually, it was quite interesting because i heard Mayor Sadiq Khan of london on one of the us nets i think it was Today Or Yesterday saying that The American election is the most important election of all the elections that are taking place around the world this year, and it was certainly the case while i was on holiday. Its literally the only topic of conversation. Thats my sense also around the dinner table. Im sure thats the case for you as well, caitriona. I mean, it feels like everyone constantly wants to ask, whos going to win . And of course, that is The One question that we cant answer, were not going to answer, nobody wants to be left with egg on their face, and its impossible to predict these things any more in us politics, as we know, despite what the polls may or may not say. But its great for us three to get together and have this chat, as were doing every week On The Run in to the election, ahead of all being together in the studio on the big results night. Weve been talking there about what people are saying around the world. Sumi, you are at the unga in New York, all of the world leaders gathered there, so much Power And Influence in one place. Whats the tone coming from there . Yeah, well, caitriona, katty, you both know this experience very well. You know, you sit here on press island. We literally had a situation where President Macron walked by yesterday, and i was standing on a box, shouting questions down to him, which, of course, he didnt answer, but regardless, all that to say. How rude of him thats what i thought thats what i thought. But it was really interesting to note, you know, weve been talking to a number of people here this week about obviously the biggest global issues at the moment, which is the escalation in lebanon between israel and hezbollah, of course, the ongoing war in gaza, the war in ukraine, but also trying to get a sense of how people are looking at this upcoming us election. And as you know, katty, you know, the us carries such weight on the global stage as well. And President Biden delivered his swan song speech, his final speech to the assembly here. And, you know, what got the loudest applause from the delegates is when he talked about knowing when to give up Power And Handing power to the next generation. And that was well received in that room. But. Was that a reference to himself or to all of the people in the room who have hung on to power for so long . Perhaps both, but it was received well, so perhaps some Self Reflection from some of the world leaders and delegates in the room. Yeah. But it seemed to be more of a reference to himself. But what i found interesting is, you know, if you talk to people here, they dont seem that concerned by this massive upcoming us election not that theyre not concerned, but perhaps, if i put it this way, they have a sense that not that much will change. You know, we were speaking to Nato Secretary generaljens stoltenberg, for example, and weve asked him this multiple times, but at the Nato Summit injuly in washington, you could feel there was more of a palpable concern. It was a time where President Biden felt in a weak position clearly, if you looked at the polls at the time. It was before he dropped out of the race, and it was a time where former President Trump was surging in the polls. Here, because the race is so even and because, obviously, much of the discussion here in the us is based on domestic politics, its almost as if European Leaders, delegates here, ministers weve spoken to have a sense that whatever the outcome, its not going to make that much of a difference. But, you know, i dont know, katty, if thats a sense that you get from some of your discussions as well with international sources. I mean, some of the people that. I spoke to a very senior European Diplomat a while ago, a few months ago, and said, look, you know, tell Me One good thing from your Point Of View if Donald Trump wins the election, and there was a kind of rather embarrassed Pause And Silence for a good 30 seconds, and then this diplomat burst out laughing and said, well, i cant offhand think of one. So i think theyre all kind of gearing themselves up for the reality. They know, as we all do, as catriona was just saying, that the polls may or may not be reliable and that Donald Trump may well be re elected. I think a lot of people. You know, its interesting. I had a couple of conversations this week, actually, with economists who were saying, look, Donald Trump often says things that are extreme, like � there� ll be Blanket Tariffs on all imports,� or � i dont see why we should carry on funding nato,� for example, but he doesnt actually necessarily always act on those things. And they point back to his first term in office where, you know, things actually. Yes, it was rocky in terms of the noise, but in some ways, the substance was a lot of stuff that europeans feel that they could deal with again. So i think theres just a lot of unknowns. I mean, you know, ithink my biggest takeaway from speaking i havent spoken to as many foreign leaders as youve done this week, sumi, but speaking to diplomats, which i do regularly here is that they dont really know. They dont know whether this trump 2. 0 would be sort of similarto trump 1. 0 that they kind of feel they just about managed to get to grips with, or whether it would be, you know, Blanket Tariffs and pulling out of nato and rejecting other multilateral alliances. I think one thing that i have heard, and i dont know if youve heard this, is this phrase thats going around, which is that america first means europe last, and that were trump to get back in, hes not a great fan of europe. Yeah, that is certainly a concern among European Leaders and ministers weve been speaking to. You know, they may not say so explicitly, but you can hear that tone the concern that, you know, under President Biden, the relationship between European Allies and the us has improved dramatically, and they understand, of course, that that could change should Donald Trump be in the White House again. But speaking about multilateral institutions, again, with jens stoltenberg, he delivered what seemed to be a bit of a veiled message, lets say, to Donald Trump when he told us, my concerns. Hes leaving his post, as you know, katty, and he said, my concerns are essentially that people may take nato for gra nted. Now, as you said, Donald Trump did not pull the us out of nato and there is no indication that he would do so. But of course, that relationship became a lot more contentious. I will say that we just also spoke to the kenyan president. He said, look, we know Donald Trump as well. We had a good relationship with Donald Trump. We will have a good relationship with the us because the foundation, lets say, of that relationship goes back so far and is so solid that no One Administration can change it. So, clearly, a very diplomatic answer from the kenyan president , which is to be expected. He will have to work with either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, whoever is next in the White House. But what i really think is remarkable here is theres some serious concern among us delegates here, the us delegation, about the escalating situation in lebanon, the escalating situation between israel and hezbollah, the concern that, you know, another hot war could really derail Kamala Harris� s campaign. And, you know, caitriona, you were talking to voters in michigan who are very critical of the us� s position on israel. Absolutely. And its notjust voters in michigan although, obviously, as we discussed on last weeks episode, sumi, there is the highest concentration of arab american and Muslim Americans in america, in michigan, which is a battleground state, is one of these states that moves between supporting Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. And definitely the vibe i got from voters there was that they are very, very unhappy with how Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have approached this conflict so far. And thats reflected in polling among general democratic voters as well, who are very unhappy with how that situation has progressed. We were speaking to a lot of people from lebanon, and of course, last week was the beginning of this phase, if you like, in terms of, wed seen those explosions of the pagers and various devices in lebanon, and they were very concerned about where this would go and what that would mean for, you know, relations within the community. Their friends in gaza, in lebanon, and they feel that their tax dollars are going to the department of defense, which a portion of them are, and thats going to support israel in this military campaign. And interestingly, the Uncommitted Movement had said they couldnt endorse Kamala Harris, but they werent prepared to endorse Donald Trump either. And they didnt. They said they didnt want to see a Trump Presidency either. And of course, just a few days ago, we saw the democratic mayor of hamtramck, which is one of the nearby cities to detroit also with a very heavy arab and muslim community actually endorsing Donald Trump. So if that conflict in lebanon continues and, i mean, youve been hearing it from the world leaders there, weve been hearing it for the last few days about the concern for regional spread how much is that going to play into how voters make their decisions . Caitriona, whats the latest polling on that . Whats the latest polling on that . Because the sort of general sense is that its not as hot an issue. Were not seeing. You know, campuses have been back now a month. Were not seeing the same kind of protests on Student Campuses that we did see during the course of all of last yea r, really. I havent seen, i havent checked recent polling on gaza and how it plays and how much it ranks as an issue, and particularly in michigan. But when you were there, did you look at any of the data on this and whether people still feel that this is a determinative issue . Its very concentrated, katty. And, i mean, talking about the college protests, those protests are continuing on certain campuses. There have been protests in the university of michigan, for example, since term started. Students and protesters have been arrested there. But its not getting the national coverage that it had been getting. And were not seeing it in places like the universities in New York and in california, at least not in a large scale, the way we had before The End of the academic term. So, again, the polling is determined by who youre talking to and where youre doing that sampling. In those areas around michigan, it is up there with economy and with inflation, and for some, its slightly above it. In other parts of the country, it doesnt resonate at all. You know, katty, as im here in New York, i think youve been looking at what has been quite a Bombshell Story thats landed actually here in New York but is resonating across the country, isnt it . Yeah i mean, what a crazy story. Just when you thought this kind of political Year Couldnt get any more extreme, i did not have the mayor of new York City being indicted on five federal charges on my Bingo Card, anyway. I mean, i guess this has been rumbling for a while. There have long been discussions about corruption surrounding Eric Adams� bid for the mayor in 2021, his mayoral campaign, and he did have his telephone seized a while ago by the feds. But this week, he was actually indicted on these charges of bribery, fraud and soliciting foreign campaign donations. Prosecutors gave an extraordinary Press Conference after they unsealed the indictment, in which they kind of went through, Step By step, these Business Class flights, luxury hotels that the mayor had been offered for free, basically, by the Turkish Government in exchange for allowing the Turkish Government to kind of have waivers on building Construction Safety permits. Eric adams is alleged to have put pressure on new York City officials to allow the turks to get their consulate open quickly in the city. He apparently. He is alleged to have backed away from certain community nonprofit groups that the turks didnt like. You know, obviously he has to go through a trial, and there are big questions about whether he actually manages to stay in the mayors office. He says none of this is true, that hes been a target, a political. You know, actually, who else has said that they are the victim of political lawfare in america this year . Sounds very like Donald Trump saying that, im the target of this and its all totally unjust. And none of this is true, and im not planning to step down. Ive been in kind of contact with a couple of Eric Adams� s supporters and donors over the last couple of days, and one of them texted me today and said that the mayor has to go for the good of new York City, but this does. Its kind of interesting, because it has kind of ramifications beyond, i think, Eric Adams, and thats what im Interested In. Im not a New Yorker, and obviously the people of New York are going to have their own views about that. I mean, maybe youre sitting there, sumi, and thinking the city is wonderfully run and that Eric Adams should stay and take credit, but im sure everyone has views about that today. I dont know. On the streets of New York. They sure do and i can say, im actually sitting right across, as you know, from the turkish consulate, which is a pretty impressive building. Excellent and its shiny and sparkling and new, and im hoping that i can get over there and ask some questions. But its pretty well secured because President Erdogan is here at the moment, as you know. But im really curious to see more about what is revealed through these charges, because it is remarkable to think, you know, Eric Adams is the mayor of the biggest city in america and clearly a very prominent figure in the democratic party as well. Its a massive story. Its the first time that a new York Mayor has ever been indicted on federal charges. In office. And he is a person that people would have had on their Bingo Card as potential future democratic president ial nominee as well. And again, he maintains his innocence here, and he says hes fighting all these charges and its weaponisation of the Justice System and so on, so well wait to see how all of that shakes out, but in terms of how it might impact the campaign, he was at an event with president Joe Biden last night. I see already theres sort of statements coming out from within the White House that there was no interaction between them. He has rallied for Kamala Harris over the past few weeks as well, been with her at events, so its interesting to see how in politics, this race is so tight that people are your allies one moment, and theres an indictment against you, and they run to the other room to get away from you, even before anythings been in a court. Like senator bob menendez, of course, of newjersey as well. And you know what im wondering . Katty, i dont know what you think about this. But, you know, democrats have gone to great lengths to say, look, the fact that weve seen a democratic senator indicted, now the democratic mayor of new York City, is proof that our Justice System is not being weaponized against Donald Trump. Do you think that argument holds water . Well, im already seeing democrats saying, look. Donald trumps first national security adviser, the former general michael flynn, actually pled guilty, admitted that he had been working, lobbying on behalf of the Turkish Government without and taking money from the Turkish Government without declaring it. And he, of course, was pardoned by Donald Trump at The End of Donald Trumps presidency. And democrats are making that comparison between the way that Donald Trump is treating somebody on his side with exactly the same country in mind and the way that democrats are treating. You know, under the biden presidency, the doj has gone after mayor Eric Adams, who, of course, is a democrat. I think the more interesting question is what it means for the house of representatives, because three of the most competitive districts in the house, which is going to be a big fight in november. We are so focused on Donald Trump and Kamala Harris that i think, particularly for our audiences around the world, we forget that there is a lot of senate races and House Races as well. All of the House Races are up, and three of the most competitive districts were won by republicans, taken from democrats, and theyre in new York State and theyre in westchester county, long island. They� re very close to new York City. I think whats interesting is that mayor adams cant be forced to go. He can be kicked out by the governor, Kathy Hochul, the democratic governor. But if he decides to stay, its very hard to see what the mechanism is, even kind of getting Kathy Hochul to kick him out. Its never been done before. So thats a complicated process. But its going to put the spotlight on the democrats generally. Its going to put the spotlight particularly on Kathy Hochul. How does she deal with this . If this indictment, which most of the lawyers that im hearing at the moment are saying, listen, the new York City prosecutors would not have come up with this detailed an indictment unless they were pretty sure of what they had, if Kathy Hochul allows him to stay on as mayor of New York while hes fighting these charges, what does that mean for those three really competitive districts that democrats want to get back from republicans . And they were lost, many people thought, because voters around new York City were fed up with Kathy Hochul. They didnt like the democratic leadership. Influx of immigrants that have come up. They didnt like prices and. Congestion pricing. Theres a lot of things they dont like about Cost Of Living issues even, you know, local issues and national issues as well and so it will kind of Put A Spotlight on the democrats on how they deal with Eric Adams. Sumi, youre in New York. Ill be in New York in a couple of days for the Vice President ial debate, which is happening there in manhattan, on the other side to where you are now, On Tuesday when, of course, the democratic vp pick, governor of minnesota Tim Walz, takes on the republican vp pick, the ohio senator Jd Vance, in this Vice President ial debate. It looks like its going to be the last debate of this cycle. It doesnt seem like theres going to be another president ial debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. So well all be keeping our eyes on that. I suppose ive been kind of thinking about Vp Debates and how important they are or how unimportant they are, as the case may be. And its interesting this time around that both Walz And Vance have relatively high profiles for Vice President ial candidates. Theyve been garnering a lot of headlines for themselves along the way, and probably this debate will have a lot more eyeballs on it than it usually would. I mean, often, Vp Debates are where the actual substantive Policy Discussions take place, because the two top candidates try and take potshots at each other, and then for the vp5, its less about arguing on past backgrounds because of course, Harris And Trump have been in administrations before, Vance And Walz have not been. So ive been speaking to a few strategists from both campaigns as to what their kind of hopes and fears and dreams are for the debate On Tuesday, and from the republican side of things, theyre quite worried that Jd Vance will be the word used to me was exposed as being young and immature. Theres, you know, a 20 plus Age Differential between Vance And Walz, walz very experienced in these kind of arenas, having been a congressman for so many years and a two Term Governor as well. Hes been through very many debates, not on a national or international stage, of course, but within his districts. And Jd Vance simply doesnt have that same level of experience. 0n the democratic side of things, theyre worried about Tim Walz coming across as being sneery and looking down onJd Vance. And, you know, a lot of the kind of gags that walz is making aboutJd Vance, about hiding in his couch and so on, theyre worried about how that will come across when youre in that very formal setting of a studio, without an audience there arent laughs and applause coming back at you and that, you know, he might seem quite crass by comparison. So im just wondering, how do you guys think its going to go On Tuesday . What are you going to be looking out for . Well, you know, ifind It Interesting that you say that the Democrat Strategists are concerned that Tim Walz might come across as sneering and perhaps looking down atJd Vance. Of course, hes The One who came up with the term weird when describing the republicans. And that really stuck, didnt it . At the same time, you know, isnt it also part of his image that hes this middle of the road midwestern dad who has worked across the aisle several times in the past and is someone who can relate to the average voter, who doesnt represent, you know, the coastal elite, that criticism that we often hear of where democrats are right now . So, i mean, katty, i dont know what you think, but i would assume that they believe that Tim Walz actually can project better than, lets say, Kamala Harris on some of those issues in relating to people. So i think im Interested In, first of all, who these two men are going to be trying to reach On Tuesday night, given that a Vice President ial debate is not going to get the kind of audiences that we saw for a president ial debate. And i know that both campaigns are very. Were at that stage of the campaign where theyre really kind of slicing and dicing the electorate. And who can tim Walz Appeal to that Kamala Harris has trouble appealing to . Who canJd Vance potentially, you know, make sure goes to the polls that perhaps Donald Trump might not manage to actually get to turn out and vote . So i think a lot of that. I raise that because i think both of the campaigns are very focused on young men at the moment, and walz is seen. Its hard for Kamala Harris, who has been very careful not to talk about her gender, but it is sort of hard for her to go out and say, i am the candidate of young men. I mean, not as bluntly as that, but thats the problem that the Harris Campaign is having at the moment. There is this enormous Gender Gap. Weve never seen a Gender Gap between young men and young women as wide as it is in this election campaign, which is great news for the Harris Campaign in terms of getting young women to go to the polls women decide elections because they vote in bigger numbers in america but they cant afford to lose all of those kind of i9 to 29 year old men who Donald Trump is making a real appeal to at the moment. And itsjust going to be interesting to me to see the kind of two versions. In a way, the two versions of masculinity that appear on that stage. And thats kind of what im going to be watching out for. Is walz trying to kind of soften up the kind of Alpha Male Type View of masculinity that weve seen a bit of from Jd Vance and that weve seen for years from Donald Trump . Or is he going to try and compensate for that by talking a lot about his time as a Football Coach . I mean, its a very interesting role that he has to play. His role, i think, is more. We kind of know whatJd Vance is going to do and what hes going to say. Im more Interested In how Tim Walz tries to close this Gender Gap, because the campaign knows that they are suffering with young men, and what can they do to rectify some of that . And i think this is the chance they have, because in a way, Tim Walz the candidate partly was chosen with those with young men in mind. Thats why they keep calling him coach, right . I mean, thats his role to some extent. I mean, his role is to be an attack dog, but his role in this particular campaign is also to try and reach young men that harris seems to have difficulty reaching. And i think that match up, given that both of them are from that district those kind of similar districts, in terms of ohio and minnesota, that middle of the country, coming from similar Ish Kind of backgrounds that well see a very different type of conversation than we saw between Harris And Trump, and sort of how that plays out. And of course, as you said, katty, this is not about tens of millions of people tuning in. But at the same time, all of these things are about viral moments, arent they . I mean, if they get out of the debate with it being boring, that will actually have been a win, you know . If anyone actually clicks on any of those little bits. I dont think it is going to be boring, actually. I dont either. I think this is going to be a fun debate. Im looking forward to this one because theres such different personalities. Something to talk about next week, ladies. Ive got to run because theyre just about to do a security sweep, and ive got to pack up all of this equipment and get out of here. Get out of there great to talk to you guys. 0k, and well see you all next week. And thanks for listening to the programme. And well see you again next week. Bye in bob in the forecast over the next few days accompanied by strong wind. Staying on the cool site. As we go through the middle of the week and beyond it should brighten up. That is your week in a nutshell. The wet and windy weather is from this low pressure which was pushing in and the start of the day. Strengthening wind and gales along the Coast And South west. Picking up in Northern Ireland. Rain developing more widely through the afternoon and becoming heavier in the west of wales and across devon and cornwall. Most places will stay dry away from that. Brightness especially in scotland. A fair bit of cloud, and the Strengthening Wind means after a cold start it will not be particular warm this afternoon. The rain, for the evening, occasional rain in Northern Ireland but longer spells in wales and the South West working in and turning wetter in other parts of england. The most persistent rain through the night from the South West drifting to South Wales and central and southern england. Gusts up to 60 mph strongest around channel coast. Further north, a little clearer but not as cold as recent nights. This is the chart for monday. Fairly slow moving and almost stalling across england which means persistent Rain Pushes into East Anglia but mainly in parts of northern england, yorkshire, lincolnshire, east midlands, the North West and rain in the far North West. Totals will Tot Up far North West. Totals will Tot Up in yorkshire and parts of the midlands, we could have issues. Furthersouth, brighter issues. Further south, brighter and issues. Furthersouth, brighter and milder. Driest in northern scotland. On tuesday, strong and cool winds around the channel coast. We could see Rain Working Down Eastern counties but further westwards and northwards, brighter, some sunshine, many places staying dry. Still on the cool side, especially in the wind. The rain clearing the south east on wednesday. Most places becoming dry and bright but an overnight frost and fog. Live from london, this is bbc news. The Israeli Military says it has struck dozens more hezbollah targets in lebanon after killing the groups leader, hassan nasrallah, on friday. The idf said the latest targets included Rocket Launchers and Weapons Storage centres. This is the scene live in beirut. At westminster, Labour Mp Rosie Duffield quits the party, accusing the prime Minister Sir Keir starmer of hypocrisy. The conservative leadership candidates are making their pitch for support at the partys annual conference. Voting is taking place in austria in a general election that could see the far right Freedom Party win the most seats for the first time. Hello, im geeta guru murthy. We start with the ongoing tensions in the middle east, 2a hours since the announcement of the death of the hezbollah leader hassan nasrallah. Fears remain that nasrallahs killing could spark an all out regional war. Israels prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, described the attack as a historic turning point. He said israel had finally settled the score with a man responsible for the murder of countless israelis. Hassan nasrallah had led the iranian backed group, proscribed as a Terrorist Group by western and arab governments, for over 30 years. Irans supreme leader said his death would be avenged as the country called for an Emergency Meeting of the un security council. This is the scene live in beirut this morning