So, the us president ial election is getting ever nearer its getting more and more exciting. And the polls are really very tight. So, what does that tell us and how should we be reading them . We have got one of americas best known pollsters, who is famous for his predictions, joining us on this episode to tell us what we should be looking out for over the next few weeks, and how not to read the polls wrong. Welcome to americast. Americast. Americast from bbc news. Hello, its marianna, aka miss information, in the worldwide headquarters of americast, in london. And sarah, here in our studio in washington dc, in the united states of america, of course. Now, here in the states, we are perilously close to this election. I mean, it is about eight weeks away, its going to be an incredible stretch, and it feels like everything is kind of changing again, because weve just passed the Bank Holiday Weekend they call Labor Day here in america, and that is always a signifier in an Election Year that its now gearing up properly. Theres a lot of people who, frankly, dont have the time or interest to pay any attention to politics over the summer holidays. But now that you know, theres an Autumn Chill in the air, that back to School Feeling everywhere, this is typically when people start tuning in and paying some attention to politics. So its almost as though the election actually starts this week, marianna, if you can believe it. It started months ago for us. But for many voters, it starts now. Yeah, i know. We slightly envy the people for whom it starts now, or the people for whom it starts even later. And actually, speaking about big stuff thats coming up, weve obviously got this president ial debate thats happening next week, isnt it, sarah . I guess that will feel like a moment in this final stretch of the campaign, particularly because its Kamala Harris and Donald Trump coming up against one another for the first time. And you know theyve never met before . This is actually going to be the first time that they ever speak to Each Other. Theyve never met . wow she was in congress a couple of times when he gave State Of The Union addresses when she was a senator, but other than that, no, theyve never looked Each Other in the eye. And they will on this debate stage. I think its going to be a huge, pivotal moment for a lot of people really, really interested to see what the dynamic� s like between them and, principally, whether or not she can stand up to whats almost certainly going to be an attempt at some kind of bullying or intimidation from him. And how she handles that could have a huge say, i would think, in whether or not she wins this election. And what kinds of clips get picked up and all that kind of stuff, what goes viral, what doesnt. And i guess afterwards, sarah as well, there are a lot of people who are going to be talking about the polls and whether the polls move or not, whether it looks like one candidate comes out on top or not. Are the polls to be trusted . Do the polls have a Track Record of being trusted in the states . Yes and no. It depends which ones youre talking about. And Thats Something obviously we can get into with our guest, nate silver, when we speak to him in a minute or two. I think the key thing to say about the polls is that theyre still incredibly close. There is momentum in Kamala Harriss favour. Joe biden was, like, maybe on average, three or four points behind Donald Trump in national polling. Kamala harris is now slightly ahead. But its fine detail here, and its so close, in such a divided country, its really difficult to know when things are in the margin of error, whether theyre correct or not. And just, you know, a few hundred thousand votes could make the difference. So whether polls can pick that up is difficult to say. One thing that i have noticed in the world i investigate is that when the polls dont get it right, that can have quite a big impact on, i guess, Peoples Trust and confidence in the systems, because quite a few of the Conspiracy Networks or groups that i spend a fair bit of time hanging out in will seize on when a poll is wrong and use it as an example of where they believe the establishment, or what theyd call the kind of mainstream media, or anything of that variety, is trying to manipulate the outcome of the election by saying, oh, well, this is whats going to happen, or, this isnt whats going to happen. And so it feels as though actually, this time around, particularly with everything that happened back in 2020, theres more pressure than ever, really, for the polls to get it right. Yes, and of course, people dont always read polls correctly. I mean, any poll thats published now is not saying this is whats necessarily going to happen in november, because all sorts of events could take place between now and then. What theyre saying is this is a snapshot, as best we can capture it, of what people are thinking now. So that can be one of the reasons why people will say, oh, but you know, so and so was 20 points ahead all the way through the campaign. How could they have possibly lost . Well, the answer is things changed and voters changed their minds. But this is all going to be very fertile territory for our guest whos coming up next. Now, this is rather exciting because were going to welcome to americast now someone who is a genuine celebrity in the world of political polling and predictions. There arent very many of them, but at the top of the tree is nate silver, who shot to prominence in the 2008 election when he got 49 out of the 50 states correct in how they voted in the 0bama Mccain election. He got all 50 correct in 2012. And so he is a big name in the world of political polling who has now written a book about risk and gambling. And yeah, that book is called On The Edge the Art 0f risking everything. And its brilliant to have nate sitting here next to me in the america studio. Hi, nate. Thanks to both of you. Happy to be here. Thank you so much. Its always a bit awkward when everyone has to talk about you when youre sitting here. Im used to it by this point. Good, good. Right, ok, lets start by introducing you a bit. So you started in poker and then went into political polling. Yeah. Theres this line you talk about feeling more at home in a casino than at a political convention. Tell me about that. Whats that like . Yeah, i mean, the reason i got into elections and politics is because the us government basically passed a law to take my livelihood away as an online Poker Player in 2006. They basically made it illegal to deposit money in offshore online poker sites. So i started following the us Congressional Election that year, hoping the people that had passed that law would get voted out of office which they did, by the way, thanks in part to contributions from Poker Players. And then in 2008, im, gosh, 29, 30 years old, living in chicago. A guy named Barack 0bama is running for president. I went to university of chicago. Hes at the Law School there. A much more exciting politician than the kind ofjohn kerry, George Bush Era politicians that we were getting. And meanwhile, in the us, there was this obsession with data everything. In sports, wed seen moneyball and the data revolution, and so, you know, someone with a statistical background and a background in forecasting and gambling, right . I made forecasts of how major League Baseball players would do, for example. So the idea was to turn that onto politics and issue forecasts for upcoming elections. Typically after a convention, basically, no real news value. Its four days of free advertising. You have a bunch of advertising that airs. Youd expect to be at a high watermark. So our forecast thinks that her numbers might decline a little bit. And so basically that gets us to a 50 50 toss up. And, you know, our model, if anything, maybe leans more into that latter case, because she has had a period of momentum. But like, you know, you have a debate coming up in less than a week now that might reset that momentum potentially. And again, pennsylvania, thats the state that might be a little bit of an Achilles Heel for her. A Cnn Poll came out this morning that had pennsylvania, as a literal dead heat tied. So, look, we are in unprecedented circumstances. Youve never had a candidate take over injuly before. Its not quite a Uk Snap election, but its a different rhythm, a different timing. And so everyones making making a best guess. Look, in the past two elections, the democrats won the Popular Vote by two points and four and a half points, respectively. So if shes at three and a half points, then thats right in between clinton and biden. Of course, clinton lost the electoral College And Biden won it. So maybe thats another way to get to 50 50, basically. You talk a lot in your book, On The Edge, about risk and about Risk Taking. Just to stick with this election before we broaden it out a little bit, how would you consider the risk that the White House took or didnt take . Im really interested in that risk, which was, right, do we decide whetherJoe Biden keeps going and it looks like we might lose, or do we gamble on someone else, and then we gamble on Kamala Harris . Like, how do you assess that risk . I mean, i dont think it was really a gamble. It was obviously the right play, right . But it kind of felt like a gamble, like, they made it feel like a gamble at the time. People mistake change for gambling, right . If youre going down the road and the bridge is incomplete and youre about to fall into the grand canyon, or you can take a nice little off Ramp And Exit and slow down and then, you know, come to a resting stop, then its not risky to actually make the turn, right . Like, this was obvious. Biden should have, a year ago, recognised that 80 of americans thought a year ago that, no, this Guy Cannot be president until hes 86, and should have, you know, stood down and made plans to have maybe a more smooth transition, maybe have a competitive primary, potentially. So, look, it took biden a long time to see the Writing On The Wall. But the democratic party is ultimately very effective. I mean, Nancy Pelosi and jim Clyburn And Party leaders, they are not a cult of personality in the same way that republicans are under trump. And ultimately they were able to persuade Biden And Use leverage. But i gave 100 of the credit to the democratic party and 0 to biden for stepping aside at such a late hour. I dont know that it damaged harris. I mean, in some ways, having this abbreviated campaign, maybe americans dont need these, like, two year long campaigns. But, you know, he should have seen the Writing On The Wall sooner. And whats happened this year with the election because of all of that, because of the focus On Biden and his age and then the speculation about whether or not he would pull out, its made this campaign, even more than usual in america, focus very much on the personalities of the candidates. Yes. And people now looking at Kamala Harris as well as a personality, maybe, rather than a policy platform. How much does it matter, especially when Donald Trump is so vague often about policy . Are voters making these decisions based on who they think will be a better steward of the economy, how they feel about abortion and reproductive rights, how much they care about immigration . Or are theyjust looking at two people, and as weve talked about in americast before, just reading the vibes of them . Well, look, you mentioned the three issues that probably does matter. I think the Economy And Abortion and immigration do penetrate through. But for the most part, for 70 of people, its probably mostly about the vibes, the personalities. Actually, for most people, it doesnt matter. Itsjust about the, do you have the d or the R Name Label by you . But yeah, americans are not, like, Reading Party Platforms and scrutinising in detail the messages of the campaigns. You know, even for things like abortion, there are there some people who think that Joe Biden was responsible for overturning Roe V wade, for example. So i think the Harris Campaign has been smart to lead with personality. I think they may need to pivot or maybe need to pivot a little bit sooner. They havent done, like, a lot of press availability, which i thought was kind of kind of silly and, you know, youre the Vice President as well as the democratic president ial nominee. Go ahead and do a bunch of interviews. I think their excuses for doing that are poor maybe Leftover Trauma from when biden gave interviews and they often didnt go well, but shes more capable than he is. But yeah, im not going to pretend that its the most substantive election, but of course, its still incredibly important. The result is very important. And so i think the harris people have figured out, ironically, that given the stakes of the election, going around like biden did, saying, democracy, Democracy Democracy is on the line, people are a little bit tired of that message after being told that even if its correct being told that for eight, 12 years now, its the most important election of your lifetime. And to have a little bit more fun with things, i think is not a bad idea. Its really interesting you say that. When it was the caucuses earlier this year, i was in very, very cold iowa. And i was hearing that from some of the people i was chatting to there, and then also in atlanta, that idea of, well, actually, im not really motivated to go out and vote because im worried about the future of democracy. Im motivated to go out and vote because of whats actually affecting my life. Yeah, its awfully abstract, right . I mean, america had january sixth, which is, you know, a terrifying event. Its ultimately, though, a near miss, right . If something had gone differently, maybe you had had members of congress injured or killed, for example, or you would have disrupted the electoral Vote Count somehow. But its a near miss, and people dont tend to learn lessons from near misses, right . If you drank too much and you drink and drive, right, and just narrowly avoiding an accident, you might even say, oh, look how great a driver i am, right . And so thats a little bit where it feels like america is. But it was a hard pitch for biden to make, given that he was the president , he became president , and you had a fair midterm in 2020, 2022, where democrats actually did pretty well for the most part, and they still control the senate. And so, to say democracy is on the line may be accurate. I mean, look, we could debate that. But you know, i think its kind of not as obvious a message to voters as the biden White House seemed to think it was. And on the issue of polling and the accuracy of polling, i mean, you mentioned January 6th there. I spend way too much of my time investigating social media, disinformation, all that kind of stuff, and something ive noticed is how when polls get it wrong, that can then contribute to people not trusting perhaps the public institutions they could. Do you think the polls do often get it wrong . I think the media has to be more responsible when it reports on polls. You know, to bring things a little bit closer to home, you know, the media massively misreported what the polls said about brexit in 2016. The polls said that this was, you know, remain and leave were roughly 50 50. And i think the kind of london based Media Preferred remain and tended not to emphasise the uncertainty in the polls. As you both know, there are more ways that polls can go wrong than just the official margin of error in the polls. The main issue being that, like, its hard to have an equal likelihood of reaching different groups of people, that if you just kind of call people in the phone book, youll get a bunch of old white women, basically, answering the phone, right . Theyre the ones who still answer landline calls. You have more have more trouble getting young voters or voters of colour, or certain types of male voters, for example, or in america, we have, you know, hispanic, spanish speaking population that actually will vote and are citizens in some cases. So understanding the different sources of polling error, understanding that if we go into Election Day and Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is up three points in pennsylvania and wisconsin, etc, thats still a very close race. I think, you know, thats what we try to do at my newsletter, silver bulletin, with the probabilities that we list. But, you know, i have seen cases where, you know, the media blame the polls for their own, failures of context, i suppose. Were the bad guys not me and sarah, though. Well, look. Im joking. The other thing, too, polling is important in a democracy because, except in states like california where you put everything up to a referendum, we dont have direct democracy. And so to give voters a way to weigh in, and to make sure that elites like us, the bbc or the nbc or New York Times or whatever else, arent imposing our views, and polling serves as a check to give the common person a voice. So if polling is bad when we actually test it on elections, then we should be worried about losing that device, thats, ithink, you know, an important lever we have in democracy. So what should we be being careful of at the moment . Should it be that because democrats are quite excited and enthused about Kamala Harris at the moment, theyre more likely to answer calls from pollsters . Is it difficult still to find trump supporters, are they less likely to respond to pollsters . Where do you think there might be some sort of in built bias in the numbers were looking at now . Yeah, the Enthusiasm Thing is always a little bit of a concern, because you might think, oh, its great in the abstract for a party to be enthusiastic, but plenty of unenthusiastic people vote too. The concern is that when you have a party thats very enthusiastic, you have whats called partisan non response bias, meaning that one party is more likely to respond or not respond to polls than others. There were other wrinkles. In 2020, one issue some pollsters believe was that covid. 50, democrats were more cautious over covid. They are sitting at home, the pollster calls, youre like, shoot, this is exciting. A pollster called. Ive got nothing to do. Im going to answer this pollsters phone call. Im going to vote forJoe Biden and Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, you know, republicans are, like, going out to the local Dive Bar and things like that, and, you know, partying, whatever else, dont care as much about covid. Missed the pollsters phone call, dont get recorded in the polls. So there are lots of ways that polls can go wrong. Moving on to your book a little bit more, and some of the themes that you explore, ai is something that you talk about and very specifically, the risks of ai and how we balance up the positives versus the risks. What do you decide In The End . Where do you land in terms of how we should be feeling right now about al . I suppose i dont. I mean, theres a lot of reporting in the book where im trying to present the case for both sides from, like, the most, you know, thoughtful and qualified people on both sides. Look, i dont think that were in imminent danger right now of some type of, like, fast ai take off scenario. But these models have come farther, faster than most people expected. If you use Chatgpt Or Claude or another ai not quite chat. Theyre large language models. You know, the fact that you can have this kind of talking computer that comes close to passing the turing test, depending on who you talk to, would have been considered miraculous by all but a handful of people five years ago. And its not perfect it hallucinates, it spreads misinformation sometimes. Its very human like, often, actually, in its ability to kind of lie to you and spin its way around things and sometimes even flatter you a little bit. But still, its kind of a miracle that it advanced this far this soon. If theres another miracle and it develops superhuman capabilities, then all bets are off, potentially. Would those superhuman ais behave the way we want them to is an open question, potentially. And thats the reason why some people are concerned. And by the way, we dont know that much about the Inner Workings of ai. Its not like the Industrial Revolution where you design the Steam Engine and we know how all the parts work. Its considered kind of a miracle that chatgpt, for example, works as well as it does. So thats the case for caution, i think. And the people in charge of some of these companies you talk a little bit about, you know, 0penai And Sam altman, but also, i guess the people who are classed as the Tech Bros they seem to be people who are very up for taking risk, versus some of the people who are less so. What do you make of them and their impact on society in that way . Yeah, for sure. So, you know, i come from america where were like a more Risk Taking country probably than than the uk on average, right . Yeah, probably. I. Uh, yeah. But i think there is more paternalism in the uk in general, right . There are more strict laws about, you know, online speech. Theres more strict laws about lots of things in the uk. Im losing my train of thought, but yeah. The risk takers. You know, all the talent in the world still moves to Silicon Valley, and now, you know, america, california is leading the charge for al, although the uk has influence in different ways. So, yeah, even if the ceo of 0penai, say, sam altman, wanted to push the brake pedal, he mightjust be ousted, right . When there were concerns raised by parts of 0penais non Profit Board about the speed at Which 0penai was going, or non transparency issues, Sam Just said, illjust go to microsoft, right . Which, you know, has a 50 stake in 0penai anyway. And so its pretty hard to put the Genie Back in the bottle, even if in the abstract it might be a good idea. And by the way, over the course of history, most of the time, technology benefits people, right . Think about advances in medical science or, you know, the reduction in Poverty Weve had all around the world. With ai a little bit less clear. Even the founders of these labs will say, yeah, theres a chance that if these things are misaligned with human values, it could go really, really, really badly. Now, talking of bets that paid off big, youve been putting quite a lot of money on sports betting. Yeah, i thought it would be fun to have some skin in the game. 50, On The Edge is a book where im participating quite a bit. Im flying to Las Vegas and miami and the bahamas and places like that Silicon Valley a lot, too. Sol made, over the course of the nba national Basketball Association Season in 2022 23, i made about 1. 8 billion in bets. Its not 1. 8 billion per day, right . Youre betting a few thousand per day, and then you do that for a couple hundred days, right, and it begins to add up overtime. Youre basically kind of recycling the money over and over. But at The End of it, i spent, you know, about 500 hours on this and made 5,000 us, so i made 10 an hour, which is less than minimum wage in new york, which is a state where i lived. Its very hard to beat the professional bookmakers. Really, what youre doing is trying to beat other gamblers. Youre trying to beat the market and also the house takes a cut of every bet you make. They take 4. 5 of every bet that you make. So you can be 5 better than average and you only make half a percentage point. I think there are things you can learn from sports betting, but, you know, as an investment, youre better off putting your money in mutual funds. And final question from us we have a Time Capsule on americast, which were sealing today with our predictions, many of which are a little bit outlandish and probably very much in your risk category. 0k. What would be your prediction that you want to put in the Time Capsule . Anything to do with the president ial election it doesnt have to be the outcome, but it can be. I predict that Donald Trump will win the state of alabama. Thats such a lame one. Laughter. Well come back to it well come back and check 0k. Is that a Safe Bet . Its about as safe as it gets. Im putting Kamala Harris to win california in there as well. And vermont ill up the ante. There we go. Whoa, whoa everythings on the table. Brilliant. Thank you so much, nate. Of course. Thank you. It was great. Thats it from us this week. I am heading off to philadelphia next week, where the first president ial debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is taking place on tuesday the tenth. Thats going to be very exciting. And we will record a special episode of americast on site. Me and anthony will be there together, Hopefullyjoined Byjustin or marianna, to bring you everything that happened there what could be a really crucial Turning Point in this election. So hopefully well see you then. Bye bye. Hello. A fairly unsettled theme of Weather Today and for the next few days as well. Things feeling more autumnal as we head into next week, but Today Weve got some heavy downpours around. Not everywhere is going to be seeing them, but if you do catch one could be thundery. Perhaps some localised flooding for scotland and Northern Ireland. Some slightly quieter weather here, but for england and wales weve got low pressure. Thats slow moving. Its bringing a band of Cloud And Rain sitting across northern england, wales down towards the south west, central, southern and eastern england, seeing sunny spells and scattered showers bubbling up through the day, some of them heavy and thundery. The most persistent and heavy rain, i think, around the far south east coast, scotland and Northern Ireland. Cloudier than it has been but mostly dry. Just a bit of drizzle in the far east, but temperatures still getting up to about 22 23 degrees across central and western scotland, most of us high teens or low 20s, moving through this evening and overnight, this band of Cloud And Rain slowly edges its way towards the east, lingering longest for eastern england. Clearer skies for scotland, Northern Ireland, wales and the southwest of england, and it will be cooler and fresher than recent nights. We could get into mid single figures for the more rural spots in the sheltered glens, for instance. So Monday Morning starting off dry for many of us. But we have got this cloud and drizzly showers, i think, just lingering for central and eastern england. Sunny spells elsewhere. But later in the day, the next area of Cloud And Rain moves into the far northwest. It will be a bit fresher than it has been, certainly in the north, 1a to 18 degrees for most of us on monday. And then that Cooling Trend continues as we move through Monday Night into tuesday. Low pressure bringing quite a wet and windy spell of weather for scotland and Northern Ireland overnight into tuesday. You can see the proximity of the isobars. Quite a blustery feeling day. This band of Cloud And Rain will slowly ease as it heads across england and wales, followed by sunshine and showers. Some of these blustery showers across the highest ground in scotland could even have a bit of a wintry flavour to them. Gusts of wind, likely to be 30 to a0 mph for many of us, could be up to 50 mph in the far north west, so its going to feel blustery, and when you add on that wind chill, it will feel quite a Bit Cooler than it has been. So 11 to 18 on the thermometer. Feeling a Bit Cooler in the breeze and then into the middle of the week and things turn cooler still. You can see the blue colours indicating this colder air mass, which is going to start to work in from the north west. So a drop in temperature for all of us through the course of the week ahead. Sunshine and showers. But i think the bulk of the showers will be across the northwest, with drier weather towards the south. Bye. Live from london. This is bbc news. Jordan has launched an investigation into the Shooting Dead of three israelis by a jordanian Truck Driver at a Border Crossing that links it to the occupied west bank. The venezuelan government says the Opposition President ial candidate, edmundo gonzalez, has left the country to seek asylum in spain. Prime Minister Keir Starmer tells the bbc his new government is going to have to be unpopular if it wants to change the country. Its the final day of the Paris Paralympics with three gold medals up for grabs before the Closing Ceremony later today. Hello, im luxmy gopal. Israel has closed all its land Border Crossings with jordan after three israeli civilians were killed in a shooting at the Border Crossing between jordan and the occupied west bank