the bbc news website or app. i'll have a full bulletin for you at the top of the hour. now it is time for john simpson. hello and welcome to unspun world. thank you forjoining me. in this programme: israel's war cabinet fragments but does that mean there's any chance for washington's efforts to get peace in gaza? biden said to the israelis, "you have effectively won this now. "hamas can't do again what they did on the seventh of "october. "it's time for this war to stop." the american economy is doing pretty well at the moment, so why doesn'tjoe biden get more credit for it? they're calling it the �*bad vibes' economy. while the numbers are good on the economy, the vibes — the feeling that people have — according to polls, is much more dour. and india — what does prime minister modi do now that he's failed to get the kind of majority he was hoping for? they're not only going to have to keep their allies together, they're also going to have to see if anyone from opposition will come on board. the negotiations on a ceasefire in gaza between israel, hamas and the united states have been long and complex. and while they've been going on, the mutual anger between the americans and the israelis has been growing — so much so that antony blinken, the us secretary of state, has let it be known that if necessary, he'd negotiate direct with hamas and leave israel out of the loop altogether. at the same time, the united nations has now accused both israel... allahu akbar! ..and hamas of committing war crimes — something which has enraged the israeli government. and the former israeli prime minister benny gantz has resigned from netanyahu's war cabinet. jeremy bowen, the bbc�*s international editor, has specialised in reporting the middle east for decades. i asked him for an overview of the current situation. gantz has called for new elections, his party wants new elections, there are loads of people in israel who want new elections, but unless they can get a vote of confidence that neta nyahu loses, then that's not going to be happening. how does netanyahu prevent that vote of confidence happening? by keeping his right—wing coalition partners safe. these are ultranationalists who, among other things, believe that the whole territory between the mediterranean sea and thejordan river should be jewish and they also want palestinians to be encouraged to volunteer to leave the gaza strip and forjewish settlers to go in there, too. and benny gantz, among others, was more or less in favour of a ceasefire, wasn't he? gantz was someone who believed there should have necessarily been a prolonged pause, because the emphasis should shift towards getting the remaining hostages out. the complaint against netanyahu from his many political enemies in israel is that he has neglected opportunities and potential deals to get the hostages out. we've just had this operation which got out four hostages, but if you think back to the temporary ceasefire that happened last november, they got out more than 100. i mean, the americans must be furious that the whole thing has turned out like this. secretary of state antony blinken this week is on, i think, his eighth middle east tour. he must be tearing his hair out, i would have thought, because the politics of trying to make a ceasefire work are really, really complicated. biden said to the israelis, "you have effectively won this now. "hamas can't do again what they did on the seventh of "october. "it's time for this war to stop." there are demonstrations by israelis, saying we must have elections now. will elections change anything? neta nyahu wants to stay in power. what he wants to do is to put off the day of reckoning which he's going to have to face for october the seventh. many israelis believe that his policies enabled hamas, first of all, to get stronger and also, he was also responsible for security lapses, intelligence failures. a lot ofjewish and pro—israeli commentators in britain and america and in france say that the idf, the israeli defense forces, is the most principled, the best disciplined force in the world. do you think that the idf cares about civilian casualties? well, they claim that they do. you hear this line constantly in israel — the idf, the israel defense forces, are the most moral army in the world. every palestinian and many people around the world just, you know, laugh coldly when they hear that because they absolutely don't believe it. on the very first day, october the seventh, netanyahu said something like, "we will exact a huge vengeance on what happened," and that's what's been going on. but i think that they have — their mindset persuades themselves that the things they do are necessary for their survival. there is a massive amount of evidence that has piled up that israel has not bothered about the lives of palestinian civilians — evenjoe biden has alluded to this. the fact is is that they have killed huge numbers of palestinian civilians and also in large areas of gaza, they've razed everything to the ground. they now face, as well, international legal procedures. there's that case at the international court ofjustice, the genocide case, and in the international criminal court, netanyahu and gallant, the defence minister, face a potential arrest warrant. the united nations has said repeatedly that war crimes have been committed in terms of using starvation as a weapon of war, disproportionate use of force. i've spoken on background to senior british generals, one of whom said to me — recently retired — we would never be allowed to do what the idf have done and, what's more, we wouldn't want to do what the idf has done. so, while israelis and their supporters are absolutely adamant that they behave legally, there are very many authoritative figures around the world who disagree. economic growth in the united states has been higher than in any other developed economy. the stock market is soaring and unemployment is at a near record low. last month, the us labour market put on more than a 250,000 jobs — far more than expected. all excellent news for joe biden, you'd think. but you'd be wrong. according to a harris poll, nearly three in five of americans believe, quite wrongly, that the us is in recession and more than half blame — yes — the biden administration for this non—existent failure. only 32% said they trusted biden on the economy while 46% said they trusted donald trump. whatever�*s the reason for all this? i turned to anthony zurcher, the bbc north america correspondent. yeah, they're calling it the �*bad vibes' economy. while the numbers are good on the economy, the vibes — the feeling that people — have on the economy, according to polls, is much more dour. and i think a lot of it goes back to covid and the way the economy has adjusted post—covid, particularly inflation shooting up so high, a combination of gas prices being high, and consumer goods — people go to the grocery store and they see things on in the store, in the market are more expensive than they used to be. and while biden and the democrats will point to wages going up as well, just because your wages are higher, it's still — you feel like you're not getting as much as you used to. but is it objectively correct that the economy is doing badly? the united states is doing much better. it bounced back much faster than western european nations after the pandemic shutdowns. inflation was lower. it didn't stick around quite as long as other western nations. but of course, the american public doesn't care what people in the uk or germany orjapan are feeling. they may see that unemployment is low, they may have a job, but they also see that prices are high. i was talking to somebody fairly senior in british politics the other day, who said he thinks it'sjust bad pr on the part of the biden administration. they have told joe biden he needs to brag about it more, to boast about the economy more. and despite the hopes of democrats earlier this year that eventually, the american public�*s perceptions would turn around, we still haven't seen it reflected in the polls. no incumbent president has lost a re—election campaign in the modern era with unemployment as low as it is right now. joe biden, by all these metrics — economic metrics — should really be in a better position than he is, not in a dead heat with donald trump. and in the swing states — the states which will decide the election — are these things particularly noticed? you do see a difference in some areas — in places like the industrial midwest, in michigan, wisconsin, in pennsylvania — which we have talked about as being key states in the past, joe biden seems to be doing a little better than he is in those sunbelt states that he flipped in 2020 — that's arizona and georgia in particular. he's trailing more there, and in nevada, and a lot of those states, those have a higher lower—working—class population, non—college—educated population, which donald trump seems to be appealing to more. also in those states, it seems like immigration is a bigger concern, and that is an area where voters across the board have said they trust donald trump to do better on. now, you're coming up to the big — the first big head—to—head television debate. we have them here. the various candidates yell at each other, rip great chunks of flesh out of each other. there's already a certain public sentiment thatjoe biden may be too old for the presidency, concerns about his age. those could be cemented by a poor debate performance. whereas the democrats are hoping that donald trump comesout there and joe biden is able to highlight donald trump's record during covid, also, some of donald trump's more aggressive plans for his second term — things on immigration, things on trade, with an across the board tariff that the democrats say could raise prices even more. things that donald trump has said he will do to address homelessness, such as rounding up homeless people and moving them to camps outside the city. wherever you go in europe, you find people saying, how can the united states — the most vibrant society in the world — only come up with two aged characters? why are there not better candidates? these weren't people who are chosen behind smoke—filled rooms, these were people who were chosen by the voters. it is going to be a repeat of 2020. and while a lot of people may not be thrilled with that prospect, if there was some sort of a groundswell for someone else, we would have seen that reflected in the primary process. it's going to be a nail—biter yet again. it is a toss—up. and yes, it's surprising perhaps thatjoe biden is struggling so much, given the way donald trump's presidential term ended in tumult and given the way the economy is looking right now. we will watch over the next few months how it all shakes out but i think what we canconclude is that it is going to be a very close election. ok, which leader of a major economy, when asked why he didn't get tired while electioneering, answered this? "when my mother was alive, "i used to believe i was born biologically. "after she passed away, "upon reflecting on all my experiences, "i was convinced that god had sent me." well, it's narendra modi of india, of course. his bharatiya janata party, the bjp, was hoping to win big in the sig—member lower house of parliament, getting an even bigger majority than it had scored in 2014 or 2019. but instead of the 370 seats it was hoping for, it only managed to win 240. how has modi reacted, given his elevated feelings about himself? i put that question to yogita limaye, the bbc�*s south asia correspondent. well, there hasn't been any obvious change in sort of his public personality. he's never had to run a coalition government, even when he was regional chief minister. so, keeping his allies happy, making concessions to them, building consensus around the bjp's agenda — which he's never had to do in the past five years we've had laws being passed through parliament, you know, by their sheer strength in parliament without much debate, discussion or questioning. he's had partners before, of course, in government but he hasn't needed them, has he, like he needs them now? exactly. so, this alliance is not new. the bjp's been part of this bloc for a really long time. it's not needed the allies, however, to actually form a government. the two key partners — and this is because of the strength of the number of seats that they've won that he really relies on right now to be in government, is the telugu desam party, which is a regional party from southern india, and the janata dal united, which is a regional party from bihar. now, one of the things about both those parties is that they do rely on muslim voters to win them seats. so, i think what many analysts are anticipating is that there will be a tempering of the most divisive rhetoric that has come from the bjp over the past five years. and, of course, the other remarkable result was the indian national congress party. rahul gandhi regarded as a loser. they gained all those seats. it was interesting on the day of counting, you know, i went over to the headquarters of the indian national congress and actually, there were more celebrations there than we saw at the bjp. and you know, it's strange because this is a side that even at that time knew it was not going to form the government. but i think, as you said, there's been so many humiliating electoral setbacks for them, for their main face, rahul gandhi, over the past ten years, they've substantially improved their seats. however, we must remind ourselves this is among their top three worst performances ever in the country, for a party which is a pre—independence party, you know, often called the grand old party in india. there's still a lot of work to be done to be the actual sort of contender for the top post. and now, what happens to india and what happens to modi as india's leader? so, there's no dispute about the fact that he is the leader that the people have chosen. what they have done — what they seem to have done — is that they've reined in this aura of invincibility, this, you know, almost absolute grip on power that they've enjoyed over the past ten years. some of the big laws that they wanted to bring in that would involve changes for minorities as well. even with their allies, they're very far from a two thirds majority in parliament. so, to pass the bjp's agenda through — the agenda that they made public in their manifesto — they're not only going to have to keep their allies together, they're also going to have to see if anyone from opposition will come on board. in the past, the words modi and humility didn't kind of fit in the same sentence very often, did they? do you think we will see a difference in his approach? he's not been a part of the system. he was born into a family in gujarat which was not part of a political dynasty. you know, he didn't come from much money. he was basically an outsider who came into the system and has managed to kind of grow all the way through, first to being a three—time chief minister of the state of gujarat, then becoming prime minister of india now for a third term — and it's only the second time in the history of this country it's happened. the last time was more than 50 years ago, so majority of indians weren't alive. so, this is a man whose rises has largely been because of his own work. it's uncharted territory, really. it's uncharted territory. but what we know in the past is that he's learned very quickly from his mistakes. it's a deeply depressing fact that more than 110 armed conflicts it's a deeply depressing fact that more than 110 armed conflicts are going on around the world at the moment, but few of them are more savage in their effect on civilians or more trivial in their cause than the current war in sudan. sudan is no stranger to fighting. there have been dozens of coups and civil conflict since it became independent in 1956. but this latest war is essentially a personal dispute between two warlords — abdel fattah al—burhan, the head of the sudanese armed forces known as saf, and mohamed hamdan dagalo, known as hemedti, or �*little mohammed,�* who's the leader of a paramilitary group called the rapid support forces, or rsf. nearly ten million people have had to flee their homes as a result, and the death toll rises every day in this wholly unnecessary war between the armed forces, saf, and the rcf. merchuma is the bbc africa correspondent based in nairobi. the rsf attacked the only functioning hospital in al fashir — this is the south hospital — and this is the hospital that was serving the whole of darfur, so we are talking about five states of darfur. there's been massive looting, there's been shooting, there's been shelling and as we speak, that hospital has been shut down. so, it means that the people of darfur have nowhere to go in case they need treatment. and over the last few days, we have seen the ministry of health in sudan now relocating patients who are in this facility to other temporary shelters and temporary hospitals that have been set up which, by themselves cannot handle the amount of people that are coming in with gunshot wounds. one person told us it's hell on earth being in al fashir today. the time that rcf attacked the south hospital, the sudan armed forces was not there. these two parties have been fighting outside the hospital. this time, the rsf actually have gone in to the hospital and started shooting at the patients, at the medics who were there. and there's been another atrocity, too, hasn't there? wad al—noura? this was a village in a place called gezira state where more than 150 people were killed in this attack. unicef actually confirmed, saying that out of the 150 people who were killed, about 35 of them were children. shortly after, the rsf released a statement, saying that it had attacked two bases for the sudan armed forces but did not confirm attacking the village in gezira state. but the local residents' committees say it is the rsf. the un is present on the ground in one form or another, isn't it? the un has tried, the african union has tried, other states have tried to broker a peace deal between these two but it has not happened. the humanitarian organisations have been taking their people out of these places. right now, the rsf controls four of the five states of sudan. and if al fashirfails, if the rsf manages to push the saf out of al fashir, then it means that effectively, the rsf is controlling the whole western part of sudan, cutting the country into two. so, the key aim of the un, the humanitarian agencies right now, is to get food aid in, is to get medical aid in and to help the people insudan, even as they focus on helping the people who are trying to leave sudan, which is not an easy or cheap process. people have to pay extremely outrageous amounts of money for them to cross the border points, the rsf border points. why doesn't the african union just send in its own forces to separate the two sides? constantly, the african union and even sudan itself has said it wants to solve its own problems. the african union, all this while, has been trying to look at a diplomatic way, so it says, to solve this problem and still pushing to have the two generals come to the table, sit and talk. and it's turning into one of the worst humanitarian crises in africa, if not in the world. more than half of the country is now are facing catastrophic levels of hunger. more than ten million people are displaced in sudan. more than two million people have left the country, going elsewhere. i was in chad — have been in chad twice — and you can see the burden that the host communities in towns like adre, which is at the border point between chad and sudan, you can see the amount of pressure that they are in, this immense pressure on water, on the scarce food sources that they have. so, it's really getting out of hand. merchuma, bbc africa correspondent, speaking from nairobi. the elections right across the eu for the european parliament have produced some fairly hair—raising results. they often do because voters feel these elections aren't nearly as important as their domestic ones, so they let rip. in germany, there was a big swing to the right, humiliating the social democratic party and its luckless leader, olaf scholz. centre right christian democratic union came top but alternative for deutschland, the ultra—right party, came second. in france, the national rally, which used to be called the national front in its even more fiery days, topped the poll with double the vote of president macron�*s renaissance party. he's now taken the huge gamble of calling a snap election within 30 days for the french parliament. maybe it'll work, and everyone who's scared of a far—right government will vote for moderate candidates — though the national rally�*s leader, marine le pen, insists they aren't far—right at all. but if his election gamblefails, president macron will have to live out the remaining three years of his time in office miserably cohabiting with a deeply hostile right—wing prime minister and government. in italy, giorgia meloni's avowedly post—fascist party brothers of italy topped the poll with a huge rightward swing. but miss meloni in power has become noticeably more moderate. she's even formed an alliance with the european union's president, ursula von der leyen, whose centrist party also did well in these european parliament elections. it's all an awful long way from what's happening here in britain, where the polls are predicting a big win for the centre—left labour party. by no means for the first time, britain is floating in a completely different direction from the continent. maybe it's another case of fog in the channel, europe cut off — as the daily express headline never actually said. well, that's it from this edition of unspun world. until we meet again. goodbye. live from london, this is bbc news. israel announces an hour's pause in military activity in southern gaza. not though in rafah. a call for political leaders to be more transparent about nhs promises. 100 world leaders meet at a peace conference in switzerland to rally around ukraine and agree on terms for a proposed end to russia's invasion. i father's day post from the royals. and as spain and italy kick off the euros with wins, england prepares for their first match of the tournament later today.
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