we begin tonight with the uk election, as campaigning reaches the halfway mark. in the past half hour, we've heard from the labour leader sir keir starmer. he's told the bbc�*s nick robinson that he's prepared to make enemies over issues such as planning in order to pursue economic growth. the prime minister rishi sunak has warned conservatives considering voting for reform uk that they risk "handing labour a blank cheque". his comments came in response to one opinion poll, showing nigel farage�*s reform party with 19% support — ahead of the conservatives, with 18%, for the first time. other surveys have the tories second to labour. and as the euros get under way in germany tonight, we'll ask whether international football has the power to move voters and elections. could a good showing by the home nations deliver a boost to government? now, during the uk election period, the bbc�*s nick robinson — presenter of the today programme — has conducted a series of interviews with party leaders. on monday, he spoke to the prime minister rishi sunak, and in the past half hour, we've broadcast his interview with sir keir starmer, a day after his labour party launched its manifesto. sir keir rejected conservative suggestions that labour would have to cut spending, raise taxes or increase borrowing. instead, he insisted that the lever he intends to pull is that of boosting economic growth. he says a reform of the planning system is one way of growing the economy. are you prepared to make enemies to make the economy grow? yes. we're going to have to be tough, we're going to to change we're going to have to be tough, we're going to have to change the way things are done. i'll give you one short example — i won't take long, but it makes my point. i spoke to the ceo of an energy company to say, "how long would it take you to put a wind turbine farm up?" he said, "i could do it in two years." he said, "you wouldn't get any power out of it for 13 years, because i lose five years to planning, another six or seven years before the grid connected." we cannot go on like that. we can cross live to westminster to speak to our political correspondent helen catt. helen, you were listening to that interview as we were. did we learn anything new?— interview as we were. did we learn an hinu new? �* ~ ., anything new? don't think we learned an hinu anything new? don't think we learned anything completely _ anything new? don't think we learned anything completely new, _ anything new? don't think we learned anything completely new, no, - anything new? don't think we learned anything completely new, no, and - anything new? don't think we learned anything completely new, no, and i l anything completely new, no, and i think in many ways that was probably sir keir starmer�*s name, because this has been quite a disciplined campaign that we have seen from labour, which, in which they have repeated the same consistent messages. we saw that manifesto earlier this week, that actually there were not any surprises in there, no rabbit out of the hat, as there, no rabbit out of the hat, as the terminology goes, that it was about repeating those consistent pledges, those consistent promises that labour has been making for several weeks. we did not get new policy, but we got a reader ration of his strategy and he was challenged after the clip that you just played there about brexit —— reiteration. what he, in nick robinson's words, happy to make and means of leave voters, with the uk getting closer to the eu again? he was keen to stress labour would not take the uk back into the european union of the civil market or the customs union. he did concede there were some barriers to trade and that he was listening but he said he had heard what business were saying about that and he would do something about that and he would do something about that, and he takes there could be a better deal, but he also said that he did not believe that the relationship with the eu was the silver bullet to fix all of those trade problems. {lin silver bullet to fix all of those trade problems.— silver bullet to fix all of those trade problems. silver bullet to fix all of those trade roblems. ., ., . ., ., trade problems. on one of the common criticisms we — trade problems. on one of the common criticisms we have _ trade problems. on one of the common criticisms we have heard _ trade problems. on one of the common criticisms we have heard the _ criticisms we have heard the last one he four hours is about whether labour is to appear to be honest with voters about the scale of the challenge they may inherit if they enter number 10 injuly. as you said there, prepared to make enemies over things like planning, issues to get the economy working again, he says, prepared to make enemies over things like brexit. a big question, though, is he preferred to do that, to make difficult decisions and make unpopular decisions if he gets the keys to number 10?— unpopular decisions if he gets the keys to number 10? certainly that is the big question _ keys to number 10? certainly that is the big question and _ keys to number 10? certainly that is the big question and i _ keys to number 10? certainly that is the big question and i think- keys to number 10? certainly that is the big question and i think that's i the big question and i think that's what nick robinson was sort of gently trying to into. so what we are getting is the message from labour in the selection, obviously their big pitch is change, that it is time for change, but they also try to do that in a reassuring way, by train to reassure people that they are going to be responsible with the finances and that they won't see the sort of political turmoil that we have seen in recent years. have been using this slogan of, stability is change. that's really where they have been going with this, and interview covered quite a bit of ground, and looks at some of the things, another key message that keir starmer has been trying to put across is that the labour party that he is putting to the country this time is not the same labour party that went to the country in 2019, and he has been working very hard to put real distance between that, and he was challenged by nick robinson during the interview about some of the things he had said he would do when he was running to become leader back in 2020 and what he is now pledging in 2020 and what he is now pledging in the manifesto, but a small some things are the same, there is quite a shift away from the promises he was making on things like re—nationalizing energy companies or increasing tax on top earners. we are not seeing that. it's quite a different tone in this manifesto. and what's your starmer set is that that's because he has seen what happen, they had for successive elections he believed the party had moved away from the country and this was as he puts it dragging it back to the country —— what keir starmer said, they had had fourfor successive. evan cat, in westminster, _ successive. evan cat, in westminster, thank - successive. evan cat, in| westminster, thank you. let's go to the panel. keir starmer making it really clear that economic growth will do a lot of the heavy lifting in this, he says he does not want to raise taxes, cut spending and the solution here is just to get the whole pie to grow, to grow the economy. that will take some time, won't it? , . ., economy. that will take some time, won't it? , _, ., won't it? yes, it will come and i think nick— won't it? yes, it will come and i think nick mentioned _ won't it? yes, it will come and i think nick mentioned about - won't it? yes, it will come and i | think nick mentioned about how won't it? yes, it will come and i - think nick mentioned about how much extra he was going to put into the nhs and it ended up, he illustrated it with a pound quit, i think it were, pennies, essentially what keir starmer was offering is equivalent to 1p. i don't with the know—how much more he can do. he is inheriting a lot of trouble from the tory party, so there is only so much he can do, i think on one hand, there is an element of honesty to what he is saying, there is an element of truth there, he can only do so much, he cannot complete the —— complete the get out a magic wand and change everything but it is going to take a long time and perhaps it won't even be done in the time he has is the new prime minister. , ., ., , minister. jane, that is the challenge _ minister. jane, that is the challenge that _ minister. jane, that is the challenge that may - minister. jane, that is the challenge that may lie - minister. jane, that is the i challenge that may lie ahead minister. jane, that is the - challenge that may lie ahead for him, should he get that top job. whether he is prepared to be honest with the british public about the difficulty decisions, he is saying he is prepared to make enemies over things like planning, but is he prepared to become an enemy of the electorate, to say we cannot do that, we are going to cut spending here and that is the way we think we can solve the problem we are in? i can solve the problem we are in? i think that is a interesting point. melissa — think that is a interesting point. melissa talks about honesty as well. ithink— melissa talks about honesty as well. i think they have tried to be as honest— i think they have tried to be as honest as _ i think they have tried to be as honest as possible, voters want honesty, — honest as possible, voters want honesty, they have not put forward a manifesto _ honesty, they have not put forward a manifesto full of tax cuts like the conservatives and reform uk will do, so in shooting manifesto, and institute — so in shooting manifesto, and institute for festal —— be ensued for physical study says they will_ —— be ensued for physical study says they will have to make spending cuts, _ they will have to make spending cuts, the — they will have to make spending cuts, the courts, local government, places— cuts, the courts, local government, places that — cuts, the courts, local government, places that have had a real squeeze. keir starmer says he is not going to have a _ keir starmer says he is not going to have a return to austerity, but nonetheless the ifsc say they will have to _ nonetheless the ifsc say they will have to have some difficult decisions, and i think maybe it's a risk _ decisions, and i think maybe it's a risk they— decisions, and i think maybe it's a risk. they are 20 points ahead in the polls. — risk. they are 20 points ahead in the polls, they have not slipped in that, _ the polls, they have not slipped in that, but— the polls, they have not slipped in that, but maybe they do need to be ”p that, but maybe they do need to be up honest— that, but maybe they do need to be up honest about how hard it is going to he _ up honest about how hard it is going to be. he's betting everything on growth _ to be. he's betting everything on growth and yet you cannot wait a magic— growth and yet you cannot wait a magic wand, as nick was saying in his interview, and have growth in the middle — his interview, and have growth in the middle ofjuly, it is going to take _ the middle ofjuly, it is going to take a _ the middle ofjuly, it is going to take a long time, so the voters maybe — take a long time, so the voters maybe need to know about how much more _ maybe need to know about how much more this— maybe need to know about how much more this project is going to take. i suppose — more this project is going to take. i suppose that is the issue, anna, that in opposition you can have all the ideas of you can say how the ruling party is doing every thing wrong, but then you've got to put your policies on the line and they have got to scrutiny, and some of this suggestion, 2a hours on from that labour manifesto, yes, there are plans but some of the same things that have caused so many problems for the conservatives, like training teachers. great, spend some money, trains and teachers, but how many state in the profession? build prisons, but it takes time, there are these planning issues. we know issues get bogged down in the weeds, and that is the difficult bit that we don't have details on in this labour manifesto?— we don't have details on in this labour manifesto? yes, when i've soken labour manifesto? yes, when i've spoken to — labour manifesto? yes, when i've spoken to the _ labour manifesto? yes, when i've spoken to the shabby _ labour manifesto? yes, when i've spoken to the shabby treasury - labour manifesto? yes, when i've l spoken to the shabby treasury team on this— spoken to the shabby treasury team on this and — spoken to the shabby treasury team on this and how _ spoken to the shabby treasury team on this and how they— spoken to the shabby treasury team on this and how they will— spoken to the shabby treasury team on this and how they will boost - on this and how they will boost growth — on this and how they will boost growth and _ on this and how they will boost growth and what _ on this and how they will boost growth and what the _ on this and how they will boost growth and what the timeline i on this and how they will boost i growth and what the timeline is, they tend — growth and what the timeline is, they tend to— growth and what the timeline is, they tend to say— growth and what the timeline is, they tend to say there _ growth and what the timeline is, they tend to say there are - growth and what the timeline is, they tend to say there are two i growth and what the timeline is, i they tend to say there are two main levers _ they tend to say there are two main levers -- _ they tend to say there are two main levers —— shadow— they tend to say there are two main levers —— shadow treasury- they tend to say there are two main levers —— shadow treasury team. i they tend to say there are two main i levers —— shadow treasury team. one is investment, — levers —— shadow treasury team. one is investment, which— levers —— shadow treasury team. one is investment, which they _ levers —— shadow treasury team. one is investment, which they claim - is investment, which they claim constructive _ is investment, which they claim constructive cfx_ is investment, which they claim constructive cfx right _ is investment, which they claim constructive cfx right away, i is investment, which they claimi constructive cfx right away, and that's _ constructive cfx right away, and that's from — constructive cfx right away, and that's from there _ constructive cfx right away, and that's from there talking - constructive cfx right away, and that's from there talking to i that's from there talking to companies _ that's from there talking to companies and _ that's from there talking to companies and engaging i that's from there talking to i companies and engaging with businesses _ companies and engaging with businesses over— companies and engaging with businesses over the - companies and engaging with businesses over the last i companies and engaging with businesses over the last fewl companies and engaging with - businesses over the last few years, and the _ businesses over the last few years, and the other— businesses over the last few years, and the other is— businesses over the last few years, and the other is doing _ businesses over the last few years, and the other is doing things like i and the other is doing things like relaxing — and the other is doing things like relaxing deplaning _ and the other is doing things like relaxing deplaning rules, - and the other is doing things like relaxing deplaning rules, which i relaxing deplaning rules, which even on an— relaxing deplaning rules, which even on an optimistic— relaxing deplaning rules, which even on an optimistic timescale _ relaxing deplaning rules, which even on an optimistic timescale will- relaxing deplaning rules, which even on an optimistic timescale will take i on an optimistic timescale will take two or— on an optimistic timescale will take two or three — on an optimistic timescale will take two or three years. _ on an optimistic timescale will take two or three years. but _ on an optimistic timescale will take two or three years. but that - on an optimistic timescale will take two or three years. but that is i two or three years. but that is their— two or three years. but that is their optimistic— two or three years. but that is their optimistic scenario. i two or three years. but that is their optimistic scenario. a i two or three years. but that isj their optimistic scenario. a lot two or three years. but that is i their optimistic scenario. a lot of economists— their optimistic scenario. a lot of economists will— their optimistic scenario. a lot of economists will look— their optimistic scenario. a lot of economists will look at _ their optimistic scenario. a lot of economists will look at the - their optimistic scenario. a lot of economists will look at the uk'si economists will look at the uk's anaemic— economists will look at the uk's anaemic growth, _ economists will look at the uk's anaemic growth, flatlining - economists will look at the uk's i anaemic growth, flatlining growth, of the _ anaemic growth, flatlining growth, of the last— anaemic growth, flatlining growth, of the last few _ anaemic growth, flatlining growth, of the last few years _ anaemic growth, flatlining growth, of the last few years and _ anaemic growth, flatlining growth, of the last few years and say, i anaemic growth, flatlining growth, of the last few years and say, theyj of the last few years and say, they don't _ of the last few years and say, they don't actually _ of the last few years and say, they don't actually know— of the last few years and say, they don't actually know what _ of the last few years and say, they don't actually know what has - don't actually know what has caused it, don't actually know what has caused it. there's _ don't actually know what has caused it. there's been_ don't actually know what has caused it, there's been quite _ don't actually know what has caused it, there's been quite a _ don't actually know what has caused it, there's been quite a big - don't actually know what has caused it, there's been quite a big debate l it, there's been quite a big debate within— it, there's been quite a big debate within economic— it, there's been quite a big debate within economic circles _ it, there's been quite a big debate within economic circles about i it, there's been quite a big debate| within economic circles about what exactly _ within economic circles about what exactly has — within economic circles about what exactly has caused _ within economic circles about what exactly has caused growth - within economic circles about what exactly has caused growth to - exactly has caused growth to flatlining _ exactly has caused growth to flatlining quite _ exactly has caused growth to flatlining quite so _ exactly has caused growth to flatlining quite so much i exactly has caused growth to| flatlining quite so much since exactly has caused growth to i flatlining quite so much since the crash, _ flatlining quite so much since the crash, since _ flatlining quite so much since the crash, since 2008, _ flatlining quite so much since the crash, since 2008, and _ flatlining quite so much since the crash, since 2008, and so - flatlining quite so much since the crash, since 2008, and so this. flatlining quite so much since the . crash, since 2008, and so this idea that there — crash, since 2008, and so this idea that there is — crash, since 2008, and so this idea that there is a _ crash, since 2008, and so this idea that there is a magic _ crash, since 2008, and so this idea that there is a magic wand - crash, since 2008, and so this idea that there is a magic wand that i crash, since 2008, and so this ideal that there is a magic wand that they can waive, _ that there is a magic wand that they can waive, something _ that there is a magic wand that they can waive, something that is- that there is a magic wand that they can waive, something that is not. can waive, something that is not only a _ can waive, something that is not only a uk— can waive, something that is not only a uk problem _ can waive, something that is not only a uk problem as _ can waive, something that is not only a uk problem as well, it- can waive, something that is not only a uk problem as well, it is. can waive, something that is not| only a uk problem as well, it is a global— only a uk problem as well, it is a global problem. _ only a uk problem as well, it is a global problem, you _ only a uk problem as well, it is a global problem, you have - only a uk problem as well, it is a global problem, you have had i only a uk problem as well, it is a - global problem, you have had anaemic growth _ global problem, you have had anaemic growth in _ global problem, you have had anaemic growth in the _ global problem, you have had anaemic growth in the western _ global problem, you have had anaemic growth in the western world, - global problem, you have had anaemic growth in the western world, i - global problem, you have had anaemic growth in the western world, i think. growth in the western world, i think a lot of— growth in the western world, i think a lot of people — growth in the western world, i think a lot of people look _ growth in the western world, i think a lot of people look at _ growth in the western world, i think a lot of people look at that - growth in the western world, i think a lot of people look at that and i a lot of people look at that and say, _ a lot of people look at that and say, that— a lot of people look at that and say. that all— a lot of people look at that and say, that all sounds _ a lot of people look at that and say, that all sounds great, i a lot of people look at that and say, that all sounds great, as i say, that all sounds great, as you say, _ say, that all sounds great, as you say, it_ say, that all sounds great, as you say, it is— say, that all sounds great, as you say, it is low_ say, that all sounds great, as you say. it is low on_ say, that all sounds great, as you say, it is low on detail ended - say, it is low on detail ended decide — say, it is low on detail ended decide on_ say, it is low on detail ended decide on optimism. - say, it is low on detail ended decide on optimism. we. say, it is low on detail ended decide on optimism.- say, it is low on detail ended decide on optimism. we will talk some more _ decide on optimism. we will talk some more about _ decide on optimism. we will talk some more about that _ decide on optimism. we will talk. some more about that particularly around that tax issue —— and the high on optimism. i want to talk about what the conservatives have been saying. they today accused the labour party of launching a "tax trap manifesto". chief secretary to the treasury laura trott claimed labour are secretly planning to put up capital gains tax on people's primary residence. let's hear some of what she had to say at a press conference earlier today. labour have deliberately failed to rule out 18 potential tax rises during this election campaign. in relation to each of these tax rises, labour's manifesto deliberately makes no commitment not to raise them. if he wins, it's obvious that what keir starmer wants to do is cynically claim the books he inherited are much worse than he thought as justification for imposing tax rises that he hasn't told you about. so that's laura trott speaking there, and, jane, once again we have been discussing a lot the conservatives are very keen to talk about tax and putting the finger of blame at labour on all of this rather than billy talking about their own policies. but they have a point when it comes to some of the detail. we know what labour won't do, they say they won't raise personal taxes of income tax, national insurance or vat, but they have been a little vague about where the tax burden may fall, they have talked a little bit about nondom status for little bit about oil and gas, but there still some quite glaring omissions? that gas, but there still some quite glaring omissions?— gas, but there still some quite glaring omissions? that sort of that secre or glaring omissions? that sort of that secrecy or that _ glaring omissions? that sort of that secrecy or that reluctance _ glaring omissions? that sort of that secrecy or that reluctance to - glaring omissions? that sort of that secrecy or that reluctance to be - secrecy or that reluctance to be more _ secrecy or that reluctance to be more frank about it has allowed the tories _ more frank about it has allowed the tories to— more frank about it has allowed the tories to seize that. the tories need _ tories to seize that. the tories need a — tories to seize that. the tories need a miracle at this point, they threw— need a miracle at this point, they threw the — need a miracle at this point, they threw the kitchen sink at their manifesto earlier this week on the £17 biiiion— manifesto earlier this week on the £17 billion of tax cuts, it has not worked, — £17 billion of tax cuts, it has not worked, reform uk have overtaken them, _ worked, reform uk have overtaken them, so _ worked, reform uk have overtaken them, so they're trying to make this an election — them, so they're trying to make this an election campaign about the sort of hidden _ an election campaign about the sort of hidden labour tax bombshell for it is —— related to the 1992 election campaign, _ —— related to the 1992 election campaign, everyone was expecting nou camp would win, but tori said there was this— camp would win, but tori said there was this huge tax bombshell you're going _ was this huge tax bombshell you're going tom — was this huge tax bombshell you're going to... ordinary people have to pay for~ _ going to... ordinary people have to pay for. the — going to... ordinary people have to pay for. the tories are trying to do this tactic — pay for. the tories are trying to do this tactic. there are three weeks to 9d _ this tactic. there are three weeks to 9d the — this tactic. there are three weeks to go. the circumstances are different— to go. the circumstances are different to 1992. john major did not have — different to 1992. john major did not have nigel farage on his case, out of— not have nigel farage on his case, out of different things are different, but they still think they can get— different, but they still think they can get labour on tax, and i think labour_ can get labour on tax, and i think labour have — can get labour on tax, and i think labour have made a quick mistake —— slight _ labour have made a quick mistake —— slight mistake. they have been cautious— slight mistake. they have been cautious with their leg was because they want— cautious with their leg was because they want to be careful and prudent somewhat. — they want to be careful and prudent somewhat, but the weaker starmer has been talking in the debates about, we are _ been talking in the debates about, we are not— been talking in the debates about, we are not going to raise taxes on working _ we are not going to raise taxes on working people is such a strange phrase, — working people is such a strange phrase, that nick robinson picked up in that— phrase, that nick robinson picked up in that interview, they're knocking to raise _ in that interview, they're knocking to raise income tax, national insurance _ to raise income tax, national insurance or vat, so it's opened the door to _ insurance or vat, so it's opened the door to capital gains tax. penny mordaunt— door to capital gains tax. penny mordaunt seized on this with angela rayner. _ mordaunt seized on this with angela rayner, and she sounded vague, and this has— rayner, and she sounded vague, and this has allowed the conservatives to come _ this has allowed the conservatives to come up. it is prickly bizarre to say there — to come up. it is prickly bizarre to say there are 18 unknown tax rises of what _ say there are 18 unknown tax rises of what is — say there are 18 unknown tax rises of what is an known unknown? it is a slip for— of what is an known unknown? it is a slip for labour and if the polls were — slip for labour and if the polls were tighter, there would be a slight — were tighter, there would be a slight panic in the labour campaign i’ili'it slight panic in the labour campaign right now — slight panic in the labour campaign riaht now. ~ , , . right now. melissa, i suppose that is also the key _ right now. melissa, i suppose that is also the key question _ right now. melissa, i suppose that is also the key question for- right now. melissa, i suppose that. is also the key question for labour? the conservatives can throw these concerns don't make criticisms about tax putting what is coming down —— these criticisms. it comes once again down to difficult decisions, and do you think voters getting my to this, saying, the financial situation of the country is not great, economic growth is not great, and labour need to become a bit more honest about what they would do and where the money will come from? i where the money will come from? i think it is a politics game at the end of it, because labour obviously, they don't want to... their inheriting a bad economic situation and then you need to explain to the public, and to be fair to your server has said, we are going to have to make tough decisions about what is coming down the pipe —— sir keir starmer has said. at the same time i think the state of politics is that i don't even know if the public truly believe that politicians can fix anything any more stub i think it is more the fact of, let'sjust more stub i think it is more the fact of, let's just get out of this horrible situation we are in by any means necessary, and if keir starmer is not promising the world, we will take it at this point. i that's just the state we are in politically speaking. that'sjust the state we are in politically speaking.— that'sjust the state we are in politically speaking. anna, one of the other things _ politically speaking. anna, one of the other things in _ politically speaking. anna, one of the other things in the _ politically speaking. anna, one of the other things in the manifesto | the other things in the manifesto was stuff like great british energy, the idea we should reduce our reliance on foreign imports couple should more energy secure. the liberal democrats speaking about food security for ultimately will come down to the cost of living crisis of an energy and food are just a part of it. there are so many other issues that whoever takes the keys to number 10 will have to deal with. . . keys to number 10 will have to deal with. , . , , keys to number 10 will have to deal with. , ., . , keys to number 10 will have to deal with. _, ,, ., . with. yes, and peoples mortgages are a hue with. yes, and peoples mortgages are a huge issue- — with. yes, and peoples mortgages are a huge issue. keir— with. yes, and peoples mortgages are a huge issue. keir starmer _ with. yes, and peoples mortgages are a huge issue. keir starmer is - a huge issue. keir starmer is putting — a huge issue. keir starmer is putting a _ a huge issue. keir starmer is putting a lot _ a huge issue. keir starmer is putting a lot of _ a huge issue. keir starmer is putting a lot of stress - a huge issue. keir starmer is putting a lot of stress on - a huge issue. keir starmer is. putting a lot of stress on telling people. — putting a lot of stress on telling people. don't— putting a lot of stress on telling people, don't worry, _ putting a lot of stress on telling people, don't worry, i- putting a lot of stress on telling people, don't worry, i will- putting a lot of stress on telling people, don't worry, i will not l putting a lot of stress on telling i people, don't worry, i will not hit you in— people, don't worry, i will not hit you in your— people, don't worry, i will not hit you in your pocket, _ people, don't worry, i will not hit you in your pocket, it _ people, don't worry, i will not hit you in your pocket, it is - people, don't worry, i will not hit you in your pocket, it is his- you in your pocket, it is his failure _ you in your pocket, it is his failure to— you in your pocket, it is his failure to rule _ you in your pocket, it is his failure to rule out- you in your pocket, it is his. failure to rule out these other you in your pocket, it is his- failure to rule out these other tax questions — failure to rule out these other tax questions that _ failure to rule out these other tax questions that again, _ failure to rule out these other tax questions that again, once - failure to rule out these other tax questions that again, once again, failure to rule out these other tax . questions that again, once again, in the nick— questions that again, once again, in the nick robinson _ questions that again, once again, in the nick robinson interview- questions that again, once again, in| the nick robinson interview tonight, and lahour— the nick robinson interview tonight, and labour witt— the nick robinson interview tonight, and labour will say, _ the nick robinson interview tonight, and labour will say, we _ the nick robinson interview tonight, and labour will say, we cannot- the nick robinson interview tonight, and labour will say, we cannot writej and labour will say, we cannot write and labour will say, we cannot write a budget— and labour will say, we cannot write a budget on— and labour will say, we cannot write a budget on a — and labour will say, we cannot write a budget on a spot, but _ and labour will say, we cannot write a budget on a spot, but why- and labour will say, we cannot write a budget on a spot, but why did - and labour will say, we cannot write| a budget on a spot, but why did they rule out _ a budget on a spot, but why did they rule out an— a budget on a spot, but why did they rule out an eye, _ a budget on a spot, but why did they rule out an eye, vat _ a budget on a spot, but why did they rule out an eye, vat and _ a budget on a spot, but why did they rule out an eye, vat and income - a budget on a spot, but why did they rule out an eye, vat and income taxj rule out an eye, vat and income tax in their— rule out an eye, vat and income tax in their manifesto? _ rule out an eye, vat and income tax in their manifesto? they _ rule out an eye, vat and income tax in their manifesto? they rule - rule out an eye, vat and income tax in their manifesto? they rule out - in their manifesto? they rule out somef _ in their manifesto? they rule out some. but— in their manifesto? they rule out some, but they're _ in their manifesto? they rule out some, but they're not _ in their manifesto? they rule out some, but they're not ruling - in their manifesto? they rule out some, but they're not ruling out| in their manifesto? they rule out. some, but they're not ruling out the others, _ some, but they're not ruling out the others, it— some, but they're not ruling out the others, it obviously— some, but they're not ruling out the others, it obviously raises _ others, it obviously raises questions. _ others, it obviously raises questions, and _ others, it obviously raises questions, and when - others, it obviously raises questions, and when we i others, it obviously raises. questions, and when we go others, it obviously raises - questions, and when we go back to that promise — questions, and when we go back to that promise of— questions, and when we go back to that promise of growth, _ questions, and when we go back to that promise of growth, if- questions, and when we go back to that promise of growth, if you're i that promise of growth, if you're not going — that promise of growth, if you're not going to _ that promise of growth, if you're not going to for _ that promise of growth, if you're not going to for the... _ that promise of growth, if you're not going to for the... there - that promise of growth, if you'rel not going to for the... there only three _ not going to for the... there only three options— not going to for the... there only three options will— not going to for the... there only three options will one _ not going to for the... there only three options will one is - not going to for the... there only three options will one is borrow. three options will one is borrow more, — three options will one is borrow more. and _ three options will one is borrow more. and they— three options will one is borrow more, and they have _ three options will one is borrow more, and they have been - three options will one is borrow- more, and they have been very strict on saying _ more, and they have been very strict on saying they — more, and they have been very strict on saying they are _ more, and they have been very strict on saying they are not _ more, and they have been very strict on saying they are not going - more, and they have been very strict on saying they are not going to - more, and they have been very strict on saying they are not going to do i on saying they are not going to do that. _ on saying they are not going to do that. they— on saying they are not going to do that. they will— on saying they are not going to do that, they will stick _ on saying they are not going to do that, they will stick to _ on saying they are not going to do that, they will stick to the - that, they will stick to the conservatives _ that, they will stick to the conservatives fiscal - that, they will stick to the conservatives fiscal rulesi that, they will stick to the i conservatives fiscal rules of that, they will stick to the - conservatives fiscal rules of the second — conservatives fiscal rules of the second is— conservatives fiscal rules of the second is cutting _ conservatives fiscal rules of the second is cutting public- conservatives fiscal rules of the . second is cutting public spending, and public— second is cutting public spending, and public services _ second is cutting public spending, and public services are _ second is cutting public spending, and public services are early- second is cutting public spending, and public services are early on i and public services are early on their— and public services are early on their knees. _ and public services are early on their knees, there _ and public services are early on their knees, there is _ and public services are early on their knees, there is very- and public services are early on their knees, there is very little| their knees, there is very little where — their knees, there is very little where you _ their knees, there is very little where you can _ their knees, there is very little where you can cut, _ their knees, there is very little where you can cut, and - their knees, there is very little where you can cut, and the - their knees, there is very little i where you can cut, and the third is of course _ where you can cut, and the third is of course tax~ _ where you can cut, and the third is of course tax. and _ where you can cut, and the third is of course tax. and i— where you can cut, and the third is of course tax. and i thought the i of course tax. and i thought the reaiiy _ of course tax. and i thought the really revealing _ of course tax. and i thought the really revealing think— of course tax. and i thought the really revealing think this - of course tax. and i thought the really revealing think this weeki of course tax. and i thought the - really revealing think this week was when _ really revealing think this week was when your— really revealing think this week was when your starmer— really revealing think this week was when your starmer was— really revealing think this week was when your starmer was asked - really revealing think this week was when your starmer was asked in . really revealing think this week was. when your starmer was asked in that sky debate _ when your starmer was asked in that sky debate by— when your starmer was asked in that sky debate by a _ when your starmer was asked in that sky debate by a member— when your starmer was asked in that sky debate by a member of- when your starmer was asked in that sky debate by a member of the - when your starmer was asked in thatl sky debate by a member of the public about— sky debate by a member of the public about his _ sky debate by a member of the public about his private _ sky debate by a member of the public about his private schools— sky debate by a member of the public about his private schools policy and l about his private schools policy and raising _ about his private schools policy and raising vat — about his private schools policy and raising vat on _ about his private schools policy and raising vat on private _ about his private schools policy and raising vat on private schools - about his private schools policy and raising vat on private schools and i raising vat on private schools and how this _ raising vat on private schools and how this person— raising vat on private schools and how this person says, _ raising vat on private schools and how this person says, i— raising vat on private schools and how this person says, i am - raising vat on private schools and how this person says, i am a - raising vat on private schools and i how this person says, i am a working person— how this person says, i am a working person and _ how this person says, i am a working person and this — how this person says, i am a working person and this is _ how this person says, i am a working person and this is going _ how this person says, i am a working person and this is going to _ how this person says, i am a working person and this is going to hit - how this person says, i am a working person and this is going to hit me, i person and this is going to hit me, you said _ person and this is going to hit me, you said you — person and this is going to hit me, you said you were _ person and this is going to hit me, you said you were not _ person and this is going to hit me, you said you were not going - person and this is going to hit me, you said you were not going to - you said you were not going to tax work— you said you were not going to tax work and — you said you were not going to tax work and people _ you said you were not going to tax work and people but _ you said you were not going to tax work and people but you - you said you were not going to taxj work and people but you are going you said you were not going to tax i work and people but you are going to tax me _ work and people but you are going to tax me in— work and people but you are going to tax me in this — work and people but you are going to tax me in this way, _ work and people but you are going to tax me in this way, and _ work and people but you are going to tax me in this way, and keir- work and people but you are going to tax me in this way, and keir starmer| tax me in this way, and keir starmer said. _ tax me in this way, and keir starmer said. that _ tax me in this way, and keir starmer said. that is — tax me in this way, and keir starmer said. that is not _ tax me in this way, and keir starmer said, that is not a _ tax me in this way, and keir starmer said, that is not a tax _ tax me in this way, and keir starmer said, that is not a tax rise _ tax me in this way, and keir starmer said, that is not a tax rise that is - said, that is not a tax rise that is taking _ said, that is not a tax rise that is taking away tax _ said, that is not a tax rise that is taking away tax break. _ said, that is not a tax rise that is taking away tax break. one - said, that is not a tax rise that is - taking away tax break. one option he could _ taking away tax break. one option he could have _ taking away tax break. one option he could have is — taking away tax break. one option he could have is taking _ taking away tax break. one option he could have is taking away— taking away tax break. one option he could have is taking away other - taking away tax break. one option he could have is taking away other tax . could have is taking away other tax breaks _ could have is taking away other tax breaks that— could have is taking away other tax breaks. that could _ could have is taking away other tax breaks. that could raise _ could have is taking away other tax breaks. that could raise some - breaks. that could raise some revenue _ breaks. that could raise some revenue. that _ breaks. that could raise some revenue. that is what - breaks. that could raise some revenue. that is what peoplei breaks. that could raise some i revenue. that is what people are going _ revenue. that is what people are going to — revenue. that is what people are going to look _ revenue. that is what people are going to look at. _ revenue. that is what people are going to look at, what _ revenue. that is what people are going to look at, what is - revenue. that is what people are going to look at, what is coming | going to look at, what is coming down _ going to look at, what is coming down the — going to look at, what is coming down the line, _ going to look at, what is coming down the line, and _ going to look at, what is coming down the line, and saying, - going to look at, what is coming i down the line, and saying, what's going _ down the line, and saying, what's going to _ down the line, and saying, what's going to happen? _ down the line, and saying, what's going to happen? the _ down the line, and saying, what's . going to happen? the conservatives are on— going to happen? the conservatives are on tricky— going to happen? the conservatives are on tricky ground, _ going to happen? the conservatives are on tricky ground, because - going to happen? the conservatives are on tricky ground, because they i are on tricky ground, because they presided _ are on tricky ground, because they presided over— are on tricky ground, because they presided over the _ are on tricky ground, because they presided over the highest - are on tricky ground, because they presided over the highest tax - are on tricky ground, because they . presided over the highest tax burden in 70 odd _ presided over the highest tax burden in 70 odd years _ presided over the highest tax burden in 70 odd years. we _ presided over the highest tax burden in 70 odd years-— in 70 odd years. we will talk more about that. _ in 70 odd years. we will talk more about that, and _ in 70 odd years. we will talk more about that, and i _ in 70 odd years. we will talk more about that, and i also _ in 70 odd years. we will talk more about that, and i also want - in 70 odd years. we will talk more about that, and i also want to - in 70 odd years. we will talk more j about that, and i also want to look at some interesting polling that puts the reform party added the conservatives, it is just one poll, but it is interesting —— ahead of the conservatives. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. you are with the context on bbc news. how much weight can be given to the one poll that suggests the reform party is ahead of the conservatives? its leader nigel farage held an emergency press conference to celebrate. but what does it really tell us about voting intentions? our analysis editor ros atkins has been looking at the data. first, let's look at the trends that are emerging in the polls. this is the bbc�*s poll tracker. using a range of polls, it shows the average support for each party through the campaign. labour has a substantial lead. but, actually, both the conservatives and labour are slightly down. smaller parties are moving up, the lib dems and also reform uk, though i should emphasise here, it is eight points behind the tories on the bbc poll tracker. but what about that yougov poll that puts reform uk ahead of the tories? here's professor sirjohn curtice. at the moment at least, none of the other pollsters show reform ahead of the conservatives, some of them show them not very far behind, and indeed not every poll that's come out in the last few days has actually identified any increase in reform's support at all. so we need to be careful aboutjust focusing on the one poll. now, through the campaign, you're sending us questions to your voice, your vote. and recently, richard in ramsgate asked us, "as the polls stand, how would that relate to the number of seats won by each party?" well, under the first past the post electoral system, smaller parties rarely have a number of mps that matches their percentage of the national vote. so reform uk's position in the polls is very unlikely to translate to an equivalent number of seats. some bigger polls — called mrp polls — do project how each constituency will vote. all recent ones give labour a majority of well over 100, some higher still — though, as with all polls, these projections should be treated with caution. treated with caution indeed. let's talk to the panel once again, and a chain, nigel farage calling himself the opposition. based onjust one pull, there's a long way to go yet, but he think the party will gain more than 6 million votes. is this just a bit of theatre or does he have a point, jane? i just a bit of theatre or does he have a point, jane?— just a bit of theatre or does he have a point, jane? i think it is a bit of both- _ have a point, jane? i think it is a bit of both. he — have a point, jane? i think it is a bit of both. he is _ have a point, jane? i think it is a bit of both. he is very _ have a point, jane? i think it is a bit of both. he is very good - have a point, jane? i think it is a bit of both. he is very good at i bit of both. he is very good at political— bit of both. he is very good at political theatre, bit of both. he is very good at politicaltheatre, but bit of both. he is very good at political theatre, but nevertheless ithink— political theatre, but nevertheless i think when he reentered the front line politics, a week last monday, he said _ line politics, a week last monday, he said there is something out there. — he said there is something out there, and actually i think he is right _ there, and actually i think he is right i— there, and actually i think he is right. i went to swindon north this week. _ right. i went to swindon north this week. a _ right. i went to swindon north this week, a very marginal seat, a seat that labour— week, a very marginal seat, a seat that labour have to win to get a majority — that labour have to win to get a majority of _ that labour have to win to get a majority of about ten. you think if the polls— majority of about ten. you think if the polls are right so far, labour are on— the polls are right so far, labour are on course for a huge landslide, you would — are on course for a huge landslide, you would expect that lots of voters would. _ you would expect that lots of voters would, there would be huge into you has him _ would, there would be huge into you has him for— would, there would be huge into you has him for keir starmer. this is unscientific. _ has him for keir starmer. this is unscientific, but i spent four or five hours _ unscientific, but i spent four or five hours there talking to people at a shopping centre, going about their daily— at a shopping centre, going about their daily business, and also people — their daily business, and also people were undecided, people were really— people were undecided, people were really fed _ people were undecided, people were really fed up with the conservatives, but they were not talking _ conservatives, but they were not talking about labour, they were talking — talking about labour, they were talking about labour, they were talking about reform and i think that's— talking about reform and i think that's something else that farag would've — that's something else that farag would've picked up, he would've done his own _ would've picked up, he would've done his own walkabouts, he would've gone to the _ his own walkabouts, he would've gone to the sorts _ his own walkabouts, he would've gone to the sorts of seats, and there is enthusiasm — to the sorts of seats, and there is enthusiasm there for reform. this is what he _ enthusiasm there for reform. this is what he has — enthusiasm there for reform. this is what he has latched onto. he is good at capturing — what he has latched onto. he is good at capturing that mood and is writing — at capturing that mood and is writing it _ at capturing that mood and is writing it. it is also worth pointing _ writing it. it is also worth pointing out that this is, this is my seventh election campaign, one of the most _ my seventh election campaign, one of the most stage—managed when i've covered. _ the most stage—managed when i've covered, both parties keeping things in fairly— covered, both parties keeping things in fairly tight. they have not met real voters. _ in fairly tight. they have not met real voters, there there many real people _ real voters, there there many real people they turn out to be party activists — people they turn out to be party activists. the three most significant points of this campaign have not— significant points of this campaign have not been stage—managed, the first one _ have not been stage—managed, the first one was nigel farage reentering the contest, the second was sunak— reentering the contest, the second was sunak leaving d—day early and the third _ was sunak leaving d—day early and the third one was the poll last night. — the third one was the poll last night, which was also about nigel farage _ night, which was also about nigel farage it— night, which was also about nigel farage. it is interesting that both parties _ farage. it is interesting that both parties are — farage. it is interesting that both parties are trying to ignore that he exists. _ parties are trying to ignore that he exists. as— parties are trying to ignore that he exists, as penny morton and angela rayner— exists, as penny morton and angela rayner were doing last night, but they cannot ignore him, they cannot. he is— they cannot ignore him, they cannot. he is not— they cannot ignore him, they cannot. he is not going to go away —— penny mordant~ _ he is not going to go away —— penny mordant~ he— he is not going to go away -- penny mordant. . . . mordant. he has been tweeting tonitht, mordant. he has been tweeting tonight. he _ mordant. he has been tweeting tonight, he says _ mordant. he has been tweeting tonight, he says he _ mordant. he has been tweeting tonight, he says he needs - mordant. he has been tweeting tonight, he says he needs to i mordant. he has been tweeting l tonight, he says he needs to take part in that question time leader special, which involves the biggest political parties at the moment of the conservatives, labour, the liberal democrats and the snp. he says he needs to be part of that debate. when the polestar changing, and a and conservatives say this is within the margin of error, but does he a place at that debate, given this is just one he a place at that debate, given this isjust one pull? i he a place at that debate, given this isjust one pull?— he a place at that debate, given this isjust one pull? i don't think nigel farage _ this isjust one pull? i don't think nigel farage deserves _ this isjust one pull? i don't think nigel farage deserves a - this isjust one pull? i don't think nigel farage deserves a place - this isjust one pull? i don't think nigel farage deserves a place in| this isjust one pull? i don't think i nigel farage deserves a place in any debate, because he is trying to normalise far right views, and if we see with the far right views is, it's a devastating one it would be debited and for this country. he has spoken about muslims in a derogatory way, he has spoken about black people, he has spoken about women, no one is safe from nigel farage, so to give him space to spout more division would be a terrible idea for the country. he is not a politician. he does not have the credentials when you look at him. 0h credentials when you look at him. oh sorry. credentials when you look at him. 0h sor . ., . . , , sorry. you are fine. i was 'ust interrupting. i sorry. you are fine. i was 'ust interrupting, but i sorry. you are fine. i was 'ust interrupting, but you i sorry. you are fine. i was 'ust interrupting, but you are e sorry. you are fine. i wasjust| interrupting, but you are fine! sorry. you are fine. i wasjust - interrupting, but you are fine! we are actually running out of time anyway, but we will speak some more injust a second, anyway, but we will speak some more in just a second, because we are also keeping a close eye on what is happening at the euros, so look away if you don't want to know what is happening, but germany 2—0 ahead, this the scene in berlin, taking on scotland in that opening game of euro 202a. we'll talk some more about that very shortly. good evening. in amongst the heavy downpours today, we had a little sunshine. this was clarach, for example, on the west wales coast earlier on. but this sort of shower cloud would dominate this weekend. yes, there'll be a little sunshine, but there will be a lot of heavy showers, and so it'll feel cool again forjune. the reason for this weekend's heavy showers is low pressure. it's parked itself across the uk, and there'll be showers or even longer spells of rain meandering around that area of low pressure. and they'll be particularly, i think, slow moving in the central parts of that low pressure. but, again, like today, we've had fairly brisk winds in the north and in the south, so the showers move through fairly quickly, but still some evening thunderstorms to come. where those showers do ease away, perhaps parts of scotland, northern england, it will turn quite chilly overnight with a little bit of mist and fog. but we've got more showers rushing in from the west and still meandering around our area of low pressure. so it will be, i think, cooler than it was last night, which promises that we'll see a little bit more sunshine to start tomorrow morning as well. but that sunshine will soon be eroded as the cloud bubbles up and the showers get going, already with us in many western and southern areas northern ireland, wales, england, and you can see across scotland as well, they'll soon fill in the gaps. they'll become heavy and slow moving around the centre of that low pressure, again, with hail and thunder. and there'll be some big showers, squally winds in southern areas and towards the north. these too could be heavy and thundery and unusually windy as well. so that's a concern for those under canvas, which, of course, at this time of year is not unusual, but it will be windy as well as very heavy showers. and so temperatures because of the cooler start won't be quite as high as today. but, again, it feels pleasant enough if you're in the sunshine, out the wind and its strong sunshine. a week away from the longest day now. then that rain comes in through the night and moves its way southwards. so that'll hold temperatures up in some areas. but, again, it could be fairly cool, and like saturday morning, could be a little bit of mist and fog around first thing, particularly where the winds are light. but this dominates, it could be really quite wet, we think, in parts of southern scotland, northern ireland, northern england. we'll be firming up on details. and there'll be showers following on behind, a bit more of a chilly breeze by that stage in the north, and there'll be showers to the south, but perhaps fewer and lengthier, brighter, sunny spells will lift the temperatures a little higher and make it feel a little bit warmer once again, a little more likejune. but it's really an unsettled picture, as you can see. there might be something a little drier early next week. bye for now. the princess of wales says she is making "good progress" after her cancer diagnosis and will attend trooping the colour tomorrow. we will talk more about that later. princess catherine now able to attend. sport and for a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre, here's sarah mulkerrins. not liking for scotland. euro 2024 is now up and running — the opening game between hosts germany and scotland is under way right now at the football arena in munich, the hosts are hoping for a summerfairy tale —