hello and welcome to unspun world. thank you forjoining us. britain heads into a snap election. will its position in the world change? international politics is becoming far more fluid, and in that context, the uk potentially has advantages to gain because of its unique relationship set around the world. iran will soon hold an election too, but is there any possibility its rulers can win back popular support? the majority of the people have been disillusioned with this regime. they have taken to the streets time and again asking for regime change. and we look at the new shape of the middle east with security correspondent frank gardner. there have been discussions about how to share the middle east, essentially. it's pretty tenuous. the saudis have been fighting a five, six, seven—year war in yemen against the iranian—backed houthis, without success. british politics, which has always seemed so stable, even predictable compared with the politics of the rest of europe, appeared to have settled down again after eight or nine years of chaos. since the brexit referendum in 2016, eight years ago, there've been no fewer than five prime ministers, all from the conservative party. now the opinion polls suggest the labour party will win power onjuly the 4th, either outright or through a coalition. will british politics settle down to their usual stability after that? and what will britain's position in the world be? the bbc�*s diplomatic correspondent james landale. the great irony is the last election was essentially a referendum on whether or not we should get brexit done. that was the great conservative slogan, and it's a slogan that won a lot of votes at the last election. but a few years on, there's almost omerta. not quite. there are some parties that do talk about it. the lib dems do talk about it. they are saying that ultimately, in the long run, the uk should think about rejoining the single market. if you talk to other minor parties, smaller parties, they do have some policies on it, but the two larger parties — largely silence. there are some exceptions. the labour party says that it would try to seek a security and defence pact with the eu. there is a caution, but the problem is that actually there are a huge number of issues coming up about regulation, about taxation and things like that, and migration, that are all shaped by the european union in part, and i think they're probably less likely to be discussed in this campaign than some might want. it's a case that many people make, and i'm personally not quite sure whether it's true or not, but that britain's position in the world is a diminished one. if that is the case, would it continue to be diminished, or do you think the next government, whichever it may be, will be able to raise britain's position a little? i think what will happen is, whoever wins, there will be a continuing increased sort of curiosity about the brits. i spoke to one european ambassador here in the uk recently who said that because of the other elections taking place in europe in coming months and years, where the far right is making gains, notjust in the european elections but also in national elections, that it is possible that the uk in coming years will once again settle back into a slightly sort of boring but established reasonable voice in the international space that is neither massively on the far extremes of politics, but has more come back to the centre of politics in a way that perhaps some might argue it hasn't been in recent years because of the volatility of british politics. and to that extent, i think that might be welcome, because i think at a time when there's a huge debate going on between the global north and the global south about how "the west", to use the old phrase, engages with the developing world, that means that international politics is becoming far more fluid. and in that role, in that context, the uk potentially has advantages to gain, because of its unique relationship set around the world. do you think that the conservative party, assuming it loses — i mean, this is an assumption that most people are making, rightly or wrongly — do you think the conservative party is finished in the form that we've seen it in the last eight years or so? my experience is that the conservative party, it's probably a mistake to write them off. it is still one of the most successful electoral parties in history, if you go back to the mid—1800s. but i think it's likely that the conservative party is going to change in coming years. how it changes depends on who gets elected as their mps, their representatives at the house of commons, who, if there's a new leader, what leadership that takes. and i think that will shape where the conservative party goes. in recent years, it's taken on quite a flavour of the red wall, as it's known — mps who reflect, you know, their northern constituencies. quite a heavy focus on brexit as an issue in recent years. will that change? will that continue? all of that depends entirely on the numbers, on what happens afterwards. you know, if the conservative party wins, then obviously rishi sunak will, for the first time, have a mandate, which he hadn't had before. and i think it would be fascinating to see what change he brings to the conservative party then, if that's what happens. as it happens, more than 60 countries are holding elections during the course of this year. 0ne country which wasn't expecting to is the islamic republic of iran, whose president raisi was killed in a helicopter crash last month. the president of iran isn't the chief figure in iran's political hierarchy. that's the unelected supreme leader, ali khamenei. he has responsibility for the overall conduct of the country in religious, political and social matters. and he runs iran's foreign policy. plus, he has ultimate oversight of the powerful revolutionary guard corps, the irgc. this shows the real intensity of feeling... but some past presidential elections, like the one in 2009, which i covered, have seen anger and violence spill over on a national scale. and without the use of considerable force, the islamic regime might not even have survived. this election, though, could be marked by inertia, and lack of interest, like the last one in 2021, where the turnout was at a record low. i sought the views of baran abbasi of bbc persian on what we can expect. there is usually, on the basis of precedence, up to ten people would be allowed to run. there is a dilemma, i think, facing the regime whether to allow moderates and reformists to run this time, but it seems to be unlikely. their leader is 85 years old, and he's shown in the past few years that he would prefer that the key institutions are held by those who are his most loyal servants. and so in 2021, even centrist conservatives were barred from running. the path was cleared for raisi to take over the presidency, because he was considered very loyal to the supreme leader and a favourite candidate to succeed him. but do you think there'll be a moderate candidate, or will itjust be conservatives that face up to each other? it is hard to say. it is unlikely for a moderate to be allowed to run. maybe a low—key moderate, not a figure that would draw people to the polling stations. the majority of the people have been disillusioned with this regime. they have taken to the streets time and again asking for regime change. do khamenei, the other people that support him, do they really care if there's a low turnout? absolutely not. this was the case last time around. the election saw the lowest turnout in the history of the islamic republic. but it was not something that the irgc would care. and that's why ebrahim raisi was elected. he was a mid—ranking cleric with no higher education. and he showed it in his speeches. he didn't have any genuine ideas himself. he only carried out the orders. and this was something that appealed to the irgc and the supreme leader. of course, i mean, this is weird, isn't it? because the election of a president is not really going to change the direction of the country. that is done by the supreme leader, at the moment ayatollah khamenei. so what do we know about the likely changes there? who will take over from khamenei? the list is very small. of course, it's pure speculation, because it's all very secretive. when khamenei was appointed the supreme leader, he wasn't the favourite. and khamenei only emerged because of backroom dealings amongst the clerical elite. and this could happen again. khamenei's second son, mojtaba, who is 55 years old, and he's avoided the limelight largely, but it's his belief that he has huge influence over his father's decision—making, and he's also close to the irgc. but he doesn't have the religious credentials and he doesn't have any executive or governance background. there are concerns that, if he's chosen, it will imply that iran has replaced a monarchy with another hereditary system. mm. there is alireza arafi, a deputy chief to the assembly of experts. he has the religious credentials, but, again, he lacks the name recognition. gholam—hossein mohseni—eje'i, who is the current head of thejudiciary, he's been in thejudiciary for years, and he was the intelligence minister. but he doesn't have the black turban, which implies that he is a descendant of the prophet muhammad. it must be terribly depressing to look at the situation, the political situation in iran, and see no possible way out of it. iran is facing huge challenges, and people are... ..struggling to make ends meet. iran's economy is in tatters, it is facing huge problems, and in terms of social freedoms, people are always... ..being limited more than ever. it is very depressing for the people in iran, first of all, and also for all the iranians who were hoping that things would change. but it seems that things are only, uh... ..changing for the worse, not the better. when a leading britishjournalist wrote a book about lebanon in 1990, he called it pity the nation. and it's true that lebanon's history since the more stable days of the 1960s has indeed been pitiable. its own complex political structure is rickety and deeply insecure, the stuff of civil war. waves of refugees from neighbouring countries, first palestinians and now syrians, have swamped lebanon's schools and hospitals, and brutal invasions by syria and israel have done it immense damage. this is the famous corniche... when i was in beirut recently, i was shocked by the number of beggars on the streets — people who've been forced out of their homes in syria by the civil war there. now, perhaps unsurprisingly, a backlash against the refugees is growing in lebanon. i spoke to carine torbey, the bbc�*s beirut correspondent. there is absolutely no end in sight for this crisis. lebanon is already overwhelmed with its own problems, which are massive. this is a country with a very delicate demographic balance. so this is all coming together to make the lebanese, for the first time, say, "enough is enough." is it important that these refugees, a million and a half of them, are from syria, a country which has, of course, dominated lebanon from time to time, and there's been a lot of bad blood between them? the syrian army was in lebanon up until 2005, when they withdrew, and some of the lebanese consider that lebanon was under syrian occupation, while others think that syria is a friend and was here to help lebanon. but also, to be fair to the situation, a lot of lebanese have very strong bonds to syrians as well. the people who feel, you know, the most cold in this situation are the refugees themselves, because from their perspective, they don't want to go to syria, they don't want to go back. either they can't go back, because they are from areas that are completely destroyed, or they don't feel they belong. some of them tell me, "i don't even know the country that syria has become now." they know also that lebanon doesn't feel welcoming any more, and they feel that, i mean, ideally, they will want to go to europe, to the states, to any, you know, third country. and, of course, the population of cyprus has swelled quite considerably, hasn't it, as a result of refugees going there? in the last year, uh, and according to the ministry of interior in cyprus, the number of, you know, illegal immigrants who left from lebanon to cyprus has increased 27 fold. cyprus said, "i can't take any more." and what they did, they came to lebanon to tell lebanon that, "you have to help us crack down on this movement of illegal immigrants," and they might, you know, discover that the only way to do this is probably to work together, rather than each one blaming the other. and of course, the eu came and gave lebanon... ..what was it, about a billion euros or something, which a lot of people thought was rather a bribe to them to try to keep all those refugees in the country. absolutely, this has backfired and backfired tremendously against the prime minister. he was accused of, you know, playing the european game of, you know, just take some money and keep the refugees in lebanon, be the kind of, you know, the coastguard of europe, and it has only contributed to fuel the tension. lebanon is such a fragile country. do you yourself think that lebanon can survive all this? when you speak to the refugees, you feel there are so many stories that are extremely heartbreaking, and you just wonder, "why can't it be that they're just staying here?" they're living here, they're not hurting anyone, why can't theyjust, you know... they're just people seeking normal life. and then you just hear all the insecurities of the lebanese, when it comes to all their... ..you know, their way of thinking about this, and you think this is a very small country, and then you see people telling you, you know, bigger countries, wealthy countries, they're not accepting to take any of this burden, and they're trying to lecture us about what we should do. so, you know, states, societies, they imitate each other, and at the moment, you know, in the generalfeeling around the world, there is this anti—refugee, you know, sentiment. it is not helping, and this is making all the insecurities of the lebanese becoming, you know, even worse. 20 years ago, the bbc security correspondent frank gardner was filming in saudi arabia with an irish cameraman, simon cumbers, when they were attacked by a group of al-qaeda gunmen. simon was killed, frank was lucky to survive and was left partially paralysed. the middle east has changed remarkably in the 20 years since the attack, and so especially has saudi arabia itself. i talked to frank about the way things have changed. it was always an incredibly austere place, and then along comes this charismatic young prince, mohammed bin salman, who, ten years ago, almost none of us had heard of, and he has brought about enormous social change at the same time as locking up anyone who even gives a hint of... ..not even opposition, but perhaps a request for more accountable government, more transparent government. doesn't like that at all. i mean, you can have draconian punishments forjust putting out a tweet. but at the same time, he's allowed men and women to mingle together, women can drive, he's brought in quite controversial things like rock concerts and, um...and raves and stuff, the first nightclub is opening there. i mean, it's bizarre, and it's been surprising that there's been no pushback. there have been, every now and then, rumours of assassination attempts, putsches. but mbs, he removed all his rivals, concentrated all the levers of power in his hands, and he's immensely popular with young saudis. and beyond saudi itself, the rivalry with iran, or at least the relationship with iran, continues, doesn't it? but it has been changing. so there've been... what amount to peace talks going on in iraq for a long time, iraq being, in some people's eyes, basically a province of iran now, because iran has got its tentacles so far in there. and the saudis have never forgiven the americans for doing that, for basically handing, in their eyes, iraq to tehran. but there have been discussions about how to... ..how to share the middle east, essentially, you know, to try and end or at least damp down this ongoing rivalry, which neither of them want to break out into war. it's pretty tenuous. the saudis have been fighting a five, six, seven—year war in yemen against the iranian—backed houthis, without success. and the uae, its position has changed too, hasn't it? it's become much more of a player than it ever was before. yes. i mean, sheikh mohamed bin zayed is now the president, and he is a very thoughtful, powerful person. he's always had a bee in his bonnet about the muslim brotherhood — the muslim brotherhood is part of what's called political islam, it's. .. it's basically people who don't believe there should be borders, that islam should be a part of politics, and that's not the way the gulf rulers see it. they see the ikhwan, as it's called, the brotherhood, not just the gulf states, but egypt as well and jordan, they see it as an existential challenge to their rule, which is dynastic, of course, handing it on from father to son, and they don't want the involvement of islam in politics. i mean, the uae is an immense success story. i mean, somebody described dubai once as the most successful arab city in history — and yet the arabs are a tiny minority there. and the other centre in the gulf is doha, which follows a very different policy and so forth. tell me about the way that they've gone about things. so doha is the cap... it's basically the capital of a city state, qatar, which is an emirate. and a0 years ago, it was an absolute sleepy backwater. they have decided to leverage their enormous gas wealth to go on a shopping spree all over the world, but especially in london, so they own a lot of iconic things, parts or majority stakes in things like the shard, sainsbury�*s, the london stock exchange, barclays, and they've invested billions in this country. but they are controversial at the moment, because they provide a home to hamas, to the political wing, the external political wing of hamas. a lot of israelis will say, "what do you mean, the external wing, the political wing ? there's no such difference, they're all terrorists, all of them." but qatar doesn't view things quite that way. qatar is very much on the side of political islam, and that's why it was up on the naughty step recently for several years. saudi, bahrain, uae all ostracised qatar. because they don't trust qatar. they think that it is a trojan horse for letting in the muslim brotherhood and its ideology that they find dangerous. and finally, on our geographical tour... mm. ..are you one of the people that think that, really, the idea of a two—nation solution for palestine and israel is finished now? no, i'm not, i can't see a... i can't see another workable solution, and in order to ostracise the men of violence, you need to create a road, a pathway to peace, that is realistic. and if any silver lining is going to come out of the appalling events of october 7th, and the conflict in gaza that has followed, with all these thousands of people killed or kidnapped, it should be that the world pays some attention to actually sorting this out once for all. i can't see this happening while hamas rules gaza and netanyahu rules israel. frank gardner, bbc security correspondent. benjamin netanyahu's determination to carry on with an all—out attack on the city of rafah in gaza comes at a heavy price — for palestinians in the first place. the israeli air strike last sunday on the tel al—sultan area of rafah, where 10,000 refugees were gathered, had terrible results. fire swept through the tents where people were sheltering. survivors said there'd be no warning beforehand of the attack. internationally, the onslaught against rafah is doing considerable damage to israel's support. its relationship with egypt, for instance. egypt has already backed south africa's case at the international court ofjustice, accusing israel of genocide. without egypt's security support, israel will be much more vulnerable. and europe, one of israel's strongest backers, is now split. spain, norway and ireland are backing a palestinian state. josep borrell, the european union's foreign policy boss, supports the decision by the international criminal court to seek arrest warrants against mr netanyahu, as well as the leaders of hamas. france is a lot more critical of israel nowadays. so is germany, israel's loyal backer for 70 years. so, is attacking rafah worth all this collateral damage? well, if mr netanyahu calls the attack off, he could lose power, and rightly or wrongly, his critics in israel, and they're many, claim that this is the consideration which counts the most for him. well, that's it from this edition of unspun world. from me and from the unspun team, until we meet again, goodbye. hello again. we've started off sunday with some sunshine across many parts of the uk. yes, there were one and two mist and fog patches, a bit of cloud across the south east of england, but that's pretty much clearing away. and look at this in west sussex this morning. lots of blue skies and for much of the afternoon, it's going to stay largely sunny. there will be some high level cloud spreading southward, perhaps making the sunshine turn a bit hazy later on. but the thickest cloud will be across scotland and northern ireland. with that, some outbreaks of rain affecting the far north and the west of scotland. quite breezy here as well, but lighter winds, especially around those north sea coast, so not feeling quite as chilly as it's done recently. in fact, temperatures will be getting up to about 18 to 23 degrees across southern areas, 21 celsius in hull, much warmer than it was yesterday. but bear in mind, across england and wales, high uv levels this afternoon moderate across northern ireland, southern and eastern scotland, but low further north of west. we've got that cloud and that cloud will continue to spread south and eastward overnight tonight there'll be some light and patchy rain spreading from scotland into northern parts of england into the early hours of monday morning. but with all the cloud around, not quite as chilly as it was first thing this morning. so if you're out and about first thing, temperatures about 8 to 11 degrees. so how about the week ahead then? well, it is going to be a bit more unsettled. there will be some showers, also some sunshine, but it will turn a tad cooler as well. that cooler air is going to come in behind this cold front as it moves southward during monday. high pressure just starting to retreat to the south—west, low pressure to the north. and that becomes more influential as we go through the week. so throughout monday, quite cloudy across many areas, but the cloud will break up across parts of wales into the midlands, southern areas of england, and by the afternoon there will be some sunshine returning across much of scotland. temperatures in aberdeen still about 19 degrees, still 20 celsius across southern areas, but temperatures down by a degree or so compared to today. and really for the rest of the week, low pressure in charge. we've got this north—westerly wind which will bring in some showers, longer spells of rain for a time across parts of scotland and northern ireland. and that's probably where we will see the wettest of the weather as we go through the week. further south across england and wales, not too wet, one or two showers, but equally some decent sunny spells and temperatures here still about 16 to 20 celsius. that's it from me. bye—bye. byaruhanga live from london, this is bbc news. in the uk, the electoral campaign goes on, with labour pledging to reduce legal migration. we would expect to see the numbers coming down swiftly, we have supported some of the measures that are expected in the next place and we want to make sure that we can move quickly on some of these recruitment areas. meanwhile, the tories promise to build 100 new doctors�* surgeries if they are elected. we have been focusing as you rightly say on _ we have been focusing as you rightly say on those longest waits and we have virtually eliminated the longest _ have virtually eliminated the longest waits, 18 months and above. south african parties get ready for coalition talks as the ruling anc loses its majority for the first time in 30 years. two key far—right figures in israel's government are threatening to leave their posts if benjamin netanyahu agrees to the us peace proposal on gaza. and a chinese spacecraft has landed on the far side of the moon. and we'll get reaction after real madrid win the champions league final at wembley, beating borussia dortmund 2—0. hello, i'm kasia madera.