including access to free prescriptions and legal aid, cut off. mr hunt said businesses are set to benefit from his announcement that he is to making "full expensing" for businesses permanent. it means that for every £1 that a business invests in it, machinery and equipment, they can claim back 25p in corporation tax. hunt says this will cost £11 billion a year and represents the "largest business tax cut in modern british history". the national living wage will rise by £1.02 to £11.44 from april, with the policy extended to cover workers aged 21 and over for the first time, rather than 23 and over. he also told mps that alcohol duty will be frozen until august one next year, meaning no increase in duty on beer, cider, wine or spirits, but the tobacco duty will increase. let's also have a quick look at the forecasts for the economy. during the speech the chancellor revealed the latest forecasts from the independent office for budget responsibility. they downgraded their forecasts and said that the economy would only grow by 0.6% this year and 0.7% in 202a. they also said that inflation is forecast to drop to 2.8% by the end of 2024, he says, falling to the 2% target in 2025. that is later than initially forecast. the office for budget responsibility also forecast underlying debt will be 91.6% of gdp next year and rise to 92.7% in 2024—25. a lot to digest and a lot to get through. let's get a recap of today's events with our political correspondent damian grammaticas. tax cuts. just a few weeks ago, he said they were virtually impossible. is now the right time - for tax cuts, chancellor? now he says we can afford them. are you being honest- with the public about the state of the economy, chancellor? jeremy hunt has some good news he wants to trumpet. the bank of england has driven inflation down — it's halved this year. so now the chancellor says it's time to try to get the economy growing. in today's autumn statement for growth, our choice is not big government, high spending and high tax, because we know that leads to less growth, not more. instead, we reduce debt, cut taxes and reward work. he announced, under the triple lock, the state pension will go up by over 8% next year, and many benefits up by more than 6%. i'm going to go further and cut the main rate of employee national insurance by two percentage points, from 12%, to 10%. it mean someone on a salary of £35,000 a year would save over £450. to encourage businesses to invest, he is making a temporary scheme permanent — it allows the cost of any upgrades, computers, machinery and the like to be deducted from profits before they're taxed. i will today make full expensing permanent, the largest business tax cut in modern british history. on top of that, there will be no increase in duty on beer, wine or spirits. his issue is how voters are feeling. living standards are still forecast to fall, interest rates are over 5%, and inflation at almost the same, still biting. used to get six oranges for a pound. seven for a pound. now its five for a pound. lemons, ten for a pound. now its seven for a pound. it's hard for the customer and hard for us as well. the government's hope is that a tax cut can lift some of the gloom. this is the bill before, where we paid £1,200, £1,300. now it is more than £2,000. is this the right time for tax cuts? absolutely. under this government, tax has gone up to record levels, partly because rishi sunak froze the entry point at which tax is paid. the column shows what an average worker earns, £29,000 last year. above the dotted line is what you pay tax on. this year, that same worker gets over £32,000. inflation has pushed up wages. but since the personal allowance, the black dotted line, has not shifted, the government is taxing over £3,000 more of your income. the shadow chancellor of the exchequer, rachel reeves. and the total amount of tax the government is taking from the economy is still growing, as labour immediately pointed out. going into this statement, the government had already put in place tax increases worth the equivalent of a 10p increase in national insurance. so today's 2p cut will not remotely compensate for the tax increases already put in place by this conservative government. whatjeremy hunt did not say was that official figures for how much the economy may grow next year and the year after have been revised — down. does anything in britain work better today than when the conservatives came into office 13 years ago? no! we all know that working people are worse off under the conservatives. with growth down, mortgages up, prices up, taxes up, debt is up, and, mr speaker, their time is up. mr hunt was appointed chancellor by liz truss, to clear up after her disastrous mini budget. today, the government's hope is a corner — economically and in the polls — can be turned. damian grammaticas, bbc news, westminster. we heard from rachel reeves, shadow chancellor. let's talk about some of the reaction as we start to be able to examine the detail of that autumn statement. joining me now is carla denyer, co—leader of the green party. 0ne one of the big headline announcementsjeremy hunt will be hoping gets a lot of pick—up is the idea of a cut in national insurance. he says it will make us feel better off. already, a lot of criticism that this is a tax cut that isn't really a tax cut. just explain? that's right, clearly, the tories are going for positive headlines around the cut to national insurance. because they have frozen the thresholds for both national insurance and income tax, it is not going to work out that way for the vast majority of working people. i'm sure the analysts are busy crunching the numbers right now, but based on the numbers right now, but based on the rumours that were around before this the resolution foundation said earlier this week that it is only the 20% highest income who are going to actually see this as a tax cut. for the remaining 80%, the vast majority of us, it is going to look like a tax rise. that is a fundamental switch of the burden of paying tax, away from those with the broadest shoulders, who can afford to pay it, towards a lower income, who can least pay. that's going on the wrong direction. the green party wants to reform the tax system to make it fairer and make sure that those who can afford to pay a bit more do, so that we can invest properly in public services, making sure that we get decent investment in the nhs, which has been chronically underfunded, including making sure that health care workers are paid a decent, inflation matching pay rise, and investing in public health, because public health is preventative. it helps stopping people getting ill in the first place and releases pressure on the nhs, which is so important, especially going into this winter. the chancellor would say he is given a massive pay rise to those on the lowest incomes, a raise in the minimum wage going up by more than £1 per hour. that will be very welcome for people struggling on the lowest incomes? it welcome for people struggling on the lowest incomes?— lowest incomes? it will be, i welcome _ lowest incomes? it will be, i welcome the _ lowest incomes? it will be, i welcome the increase - lowest incomes? it will be, i welcome the increase in - lowest incomes? it will be, i welcome the increase in the | lowest incomes? it will be, i- welcome the increase in the minimum wage, it is long overdue. however, i think it needs to go further. in the green party, back in the 2019 general election, our policy was for £12 per hour minimum wage. since then, look at how much inflation we have seen. i think that is a good start, but needs to go further. recognising that the cost of living continues to go up. the conservatives have tried to make a lot of hay out of the inflation rate falling, but let's not forget that it doesn't mean the cost of living is falling. it means it is going up less quickly. flan is falling. it means it is going up less quickly-— less quickly. can business afford rise to £12 _ less quickly. can business afford rise to £12 per— less quickly. can business afford rise to £12 per hour? _ less quickly. can business afford rise to £12 per hour? the - less quickly. can business afford rise to £12 per hour? the latestl rise to £12 per hour? the latest announced by the government is £11.44 per hour. can businesses for £12? ., , , £12? there are things in the budget about supporting — £12? there are things in the budget about supporting hospitality - £12? there are things in the budget about supporting hospitality and . £12? there are things in the budget| about supporting hospitality and the leisure industries, especially where i live, in bristol, we have a big hospitality culture and leisure sectors. the fact is, people need to be able to feed themselves, they need a roof over their head to feed their kids, to put the heating on. i don't really think it should be negotiable. that is why i've got some concerns about the announcements around benefits, fitness to work, you know, universal credit is already pretty cruel and callous. it involves quite dehumanising assessments for disabled people especially. and yet, from the announcements we have seen in the autumn statement, it looks like that could get even worse. it feels like today's announcement was very much a business decision, a business announcement. and autumn statement for growth, says the chancellor. there was not much in it for individuals. we may get that before a general election next year. what would you do differently? we what would you do differently? - would rebalance the tax system to make it fairer. we would equalise capital gains tax with income tax. capital gains is the tax you pay on income from selling assets, that is mainly paid by wealthier people who have lots of assets. at the moment, capital gains tax at a lower rate than income tax for work, that is fundamentally unfair because it means wealthy people are being taxed less than working people. we would rebalance that. we would scrap the non—dom statement, which we can national insurance to make that, again, those with the broadest shoulders pay their fair again, those with the broadest shoulders pay theirfair share. we use the money raised to invest in the nhs, making sure people are paid a decent, inflation matching pay rise, and making sure you can get to see a dentist, and in many parts of the country that is nigh on impossible. we would use it to help out those who are currently struggling the most. for example, we would lift the two child benefit cap, that is something conservatives recently confirmed would be staying in place, and even the labour party have refused to lift that cap, even though it is a cruel sanction on largerfamilies and it though it is a cruel sanction on larger families and it holds hundreds of thousands of children down on poverty, unnecessarily. really good to have you with us, the latest on all of the response we have been getting from here in westminster, to the details that we heard in the autumn statement. 0ne heard in the autumn statement. one of the things we talked about was the downgrading of growth forecasts. not welcome reading, for the treasury or in number 10. suggesting that growth will come in much worse than expected, and forecasts just as recently as march. that means there will be difficulty in getting the economy back up and running, and thatis economy back up and running, and that is why the chancellor said he wanted to focus on growth and making long—term decisions, decisions that could pay off later down the line. it's also about getting more people back into work and improving productivity in the uk. let's talk about some of those issues. joining me now is shevaun haviland, director general of the british chambers of commerce. what did you make about what we saw today? it was very much about business, suggesting that there is not much in there for individuals, particularly when it comes to tax. from a business point of view, this is about investment and rewarding investment?— is about investment and rewarding investment? , , , ,, , ., ., investment? yes, businesses have had a really tough — investment? yes, businesses have had a really tough few— investment? yes, businesses have had a really tough few years. _ investment? yes, businesses have had a really tough few years. covid, - a really tough few years. covid, inflation, the ukraine war, energy crisis will ease prices, and what we know is that investing in business is about businesses that can thrive, provide morejobs, more money in peoples pockets, they pay more taxes, it pays form public services, teachers and nurses. investing in businesses is really important. it was great to see that the chancellor has listened to some of the main calls for investment, planning reform, investment in careers, tax breaks for investment and good news around business rates. we were really pleased to see some of the things we were calling for. talk to me about what _ things we were calling for. talk to me about what business - things we were calling for. talk to me about what business will - things we were calling for. talk to me about what business will do. | things we were calling for. talk to - me about what business will do. what do they do with that tax break, the deduction, the full expensing? the idea is that every pound they spend on investment in equipment, they get 25p back in a tax break. how does that change the mindset? not all businesses will benefit. so don't have big investments, theyjust have a few staff. what difference does it make? it a few staff. what difference does it make? , , , ,, , a few staff. what difference does it make? ,,, ,,, ., a few staff. what difference does it make? ., ., make? it is businesses who have enou:h make? it is businesses who have enough money — make? it is businesses who have enough money in _ make? it is businesses who have enough money in the _ make? it is businesses who have enough money in the bank - make? it is businesses who have enough money in the bank to - make? it is businesses who have - enough money in the bank to invest, and who have to be paying corporation tax, to get that tax break. what it does do is it helps business plan for the future. businesses work on longer term cycles, they are about five years ahead, and this permanent tax break will really help them be able to make those plans more concrete and drive ahead. that is the thing, the chancellor is putting on these frameworks, putting incentives in place, and we need business to get behind that and invest. what place, and we need business to get behind that and invest.— behind that and invest. what is interesting _ behind that and invest. what is interesting from _ behind that and invest. what is interesting from an _ behind that and invest. what is interesting from an election . behind that and invest. what is i interesting from an election point of view and a political point of view, it would require, by making it permanent, it would require labour to rescind that, if they came into power in the next election. it's about setting up long—term strategies. talk to me about some of the other business issues, the planning reform is an interesting one. the idea that planning authorities are taking too long to approve developments and that is costing, and he says if it takes too long you will get your money back. is that enough, getting a refund? i think the financial incentives, they move behaviours. planning is really important if you want to grow your business. 0ne important if you want to grow your business. one of our members as a pub chain, they have 26 properties currently with planning applications, one of which is for wheelchair access. they calculated they lost 210 weeks in waiting for plans. if we can speed that up and get more transparency, that would be huge for business. what is great to see, there is actually some political consensus around things like planning, you saw the labour party announcement on those two areas as well as the chancellor. so, planning reform, functioning planning reform, functioning planning systems, that is really important if we want to move the business investment forward. i can almost hear _ business investment forward. i can almost hear planning _ business investment forward. i can almost hear planning authorities groaning, saying, we would love to be quicker but we need the resources to do it. is there enough support to allow this to happen? it is one thing saying we will penalised if you don't approve it quickly, do they have the support to do that? we do they have the support to do that? - do need more planners in the system and we will be working with government and businesses to look at how we can also sort of build the supply side. but, actually, even with the current supply, the system is so slow, it lacks all transparency. as a business, you need to know how much it's going to cost and when you're going to get it, and that is a good thing. and it, and that is a good thing. and what we might _ it, and that is a good thing. and what we might get at the start of next year, this feels like a business autumn statement, but we are going to get more details at the start of the year, before an election?— start of the year, before an election? ., ., , , election? more detail on business? business or— election? more detail on business? business or individuals, _ election? more detail on business? business or individuals, we - election? more detail on business? business or individuals, we didn't l business or individuals, we didn't hear anything on income tax for first—time buyers, we didn't hear much about individuals. we we expect to hear more in the spring budget. we had about 26 things to ask forfrom the budget. we had about 26 things to ask for from the autumn statement and we got at least four. no, more than that. there are other things the chancellor can do next year, but also we are thinking ahead to the general election. we are thinking about what the big things are that any new government can put in place, the day one playbook for them, to get the economy driving forward over the next few years. goad get the economy driving forward over the next few years.— the next few years. good to see you. thanks so much. _ the next few years. good to see you. thanks so much. we _ the next few years. good to see you. thanks so much. we talked - the next few years. good to see you. thanks so much. we talked about. the next few years. good to see you. thanks so much. we talked about allj thanks so much. we talked about all of the detail. 0ne thanks so much. we talked about all of the detail. one of the things that we mentioned at the beginning was the cut in national insurance. the chancellor telling us, that would apply to 27 million workers who will see their national insurance contributions for. he said it would put a bit more money in peoples pockets. if we want people to get up early in the morning, if we want them to work nights, if we want an economy where people go the extra mile and work hard, then we need to recognise that their hard work benefits us all. so today, mr speaker, i'm going to cut the main 12% rate of employee national insurance. if i cut it by one percentage point, to 11%, that would be an extra £225 in the pockets of the average worker every year. but instead, i am going to go further and cut the main rate of employee national insurance by two percentage points, from 12%, to 10%. that change will help 27 million people. the chancellor keen to point out that 27 million people will benefit from that. already, a lot of criticism that by not changing the thresholds at which people pay tax, they therefore will face a tax rise in real terms. joining me now is torsten bell, chef executive of the resolution foundation that is the point, because the thresholds have not gone up, we are all paying more tax. as we approach all paying more tax. as we approach a general election, it's not a vote winner? , , . , . winner? the big picture is chunky tax rises announced _ winner? the big picture is chunky tax rises announced today, - winner? the big picture is chunky tax rises announced today, but i winner? the big picture is chunky i tax rises announced today, but over the parliament as a whole, big tax rises. if we look from 2019 to the end of the decade, we are seeing really chunky increases in tax, over 4.5% of gdp, around £4300 per household. even after taking into account today's tax cuts. the chancellor — account today's tax cuts. the chancellor made _ account today's tax cuts. the chancellor made it _ account today's tax cuts. the chancellor made it clear that as recently as september it was not the time to make tax cuts until the economy has improved. and things do look a little better. the key word there is a little better. by no means is the economy firing on all cylinders. also, one of rishi sunak�*s pledges was to cut the debt, and that is not happening yet either. where will the growth come from? i either. where will the growth come from? ~' . ., ., . either. where will the growth come from? ~' ., , from? i think the economic capacity looks a bit better, _ from? i think the economic capacity looks a bit better, the _ from? i think the economic capacity looks a bit better, the economic- looks a bit better, the economic future does not look that great. next year, election year, the 0br is also forecasting household incomes to actually be falling, and they are expecting the kind of low growth, 0.7%, basically stagnation going on. i don't think it is strong growth, it isjust i don't think it is strong growth, it is just that the past looked better than we thought it did. it is good news, but most of us are more worried about the future. where is growth going to come from? what the chancellor is hoping is that his measures to give incentives to businesses to invest will make a big difference. we think in the long run, those will make a big difference. the problem is, households are struggling to pay their bills and they are more focused on the here and now. you say the lona focused on the here and now. you say the long run. — focused on the here and now. you say the long run, that's _ focused on the here and now. you say the long run, that's the _ focused on the here and now. you say the long run, that's the thing, - focused on the here and now. you say the long run, that's the thing, it - the long run, that's the thing, it will not happen before an election. speculation already, even on the day the autumn statement is announced, about what might be in the budget. what might he be able to deliver that will get us to vote for the conservatives?— that will get us to vote for the conservatives? something is the chancellor announced _ conservatives? something is the chancellor announced will - conservatives? something is the chancellor announced will come | conservatives? something is the l chancellor announced will come in before an election. we talked about the national insurance cuts, for the self—employed they have to wait a little longer. the big boosts to renters, 1.6 million renters benefit from the change to the local housing allowance. even if you have an election, those were come into an effect. aiming to boost growth, planning changes to make sure we can get more energy infrastructure built quickly, that is definitely needed, or the tax changes that encourage business investment, they are the long game. it's good that the chancellor has stayed focused on some of the long—term issues, even if, realistically, listening to that speech, you can definitely tell we are in an election run in. the issue of certainty _ are in an election run in. the issue of certainty or— are in an election run in. the issue of certainty or long-term - are in an election run in. the issue of certainty or long-term decision | of certainty or long—term decision making is one that rachel reeves, the shadow chancellor, picked up on. the 11th economic growth plan, the seventh chancellor, the ninth business secretary. you would forgive business for looking at the government and saying, i have no certainty about what happens next. some of these plans are longer term, but there is no consistency beyond the next election cycle. ida. but there is no consistency beyond the next election cycle.— but there is no consistency beyond the next election cycle. no, but we should step — the next election cycle. no, but we should step back— the next election cycle. no, but we should step back and _ the next election cycle. no, but we should step back and have - the next election cycle. no, but we should step back and have some i should step back and have some realism. we live in a democracy, politics is uncertain. if it wasn't and you knew he would be governing after each election, i have the bbc would be asking questions about the health of democracy. lets not have a go at the government for that. what they can focus on is making sure they can focus on is making sure they are not chopping and changing policy every five minutes. i would hope from the labour party or the government that we don't see further big changes to the corporation tax regime, which has been too unstable over the last decade. {line regime, which has been too unstable over the last decade.— over the last decade. one of the big thins in over the last decade. one of the big things in the — over the last decade. one of the big things in the autumn _ over the last decade. one of the big things in the autumn statement - over the last decade. one of the big| things in the autumn statement was helpful business. it was about things like the extension for the rate relief, we also know there was big investment in the tax incentives for investment. that will make a difference once again in the longer term. people will look at this statement and say, what is in this for me? yes, we have talked about a tax cut, but there was very little in terms of help for first—time buyers, help for isas, things that would help on a daily basis? vossen renters, would help on a daily basis? vossen renters. big — would help on a daily basis? vossen renters, big increases _ would help on a daily basis? vossen renters, big increases in _ would help on a daily basis? vossen renters, big increases in their - renters, big increases in their incomes in the short term, but right now, the thing that is to the fore, households, the costs of essentials growing significantly. next year, it is about mortgages and rent, to a lesser degree, going up significantly. that is leading to incomes falling next year, even though we didn't see as big falls as we feared over this year. we step back and took over the last period since 2019, talking about incomes being down by 3.5%, that is the biggest fall on record since the 19505. it is really tough times, everyone knows that, whether they are a politician or a punter.- are a politician or a punter. really aood to are a politician or a punter. really good to talk _ are a politician or a punter. really good to talk to — are a politician or a punter. really good to talk to you. _ are a politician or a punter. really good to talk to you. we _ are a politician or a punter. really good to talk to you. we touched l are a politician or a punter. reallyl good to talk to you. we touched on some of those issues, one of the main announcements was on things like benefits. changes to the rules and benefits. not only how much you would be paid, but also, if you are not looking for work, whether benefits could be stopped. here is whatjeremy hunt said earlier. we will reform the fit note process so that treatments, rather than time off, becomes the default. we will reform the work capability assessment to reflect greater flexibility and availability of home—working after the pandemic, and we will spend £1.3 billion over the next five years to help nearly 700,000 people with health conditions find jobs. over 180,000 more people will be helped through the universal support programme, and nearly 500,000 more people will be offered treatment for mental health conditions and employment support. over the forecast period, the 0br judged these measures will more than halve the flow of people who are signed off work with no work search requirements. at the same time, we will provide a further £1.3 billion of funding to offer extra help to the 300,000 people who have been unemployed for over one year without any sickness or disability. but, we will ask for something in return. if, after 18 months of intensive support, job—seekers have not found a job, we will roll out a programme requiring them to take part in mandatory work placements to increase their skills and improve their employability. and, if they choose not to engage with the work search process for six months, we will close their case and stop their benefits. pensions are also in the spotlight. important changes in terms of how much pensions will rise. joining me now is baroness ros altmann, former pensions minister. let explain that, it's really important. the month chosen for how much pensions will be increased by. explain the significance of september and october. the government choosing september? the fact is, government choosing september? tie: fact is, pensions will government choosing september? ti2 fact is, pensions will be going up by about 8.5%, which is what the triple lock promise actually required. there was talk of the government stripping out bonuses from the increases, so that it would be lower than the 8.5%. there was talk about may only use inflation, which would even be perhaps four 0ctober, which was much lower than september. but, thankfully, the chancellor has decided to honour the last manifesto commitment, to protect pensions properly in the way that pensioners were promised. because they have been really worried about the fact that, having already lost the triple lock one year since the election, after the pandemic, it might have been taken away again. so, this will still meal that we have a very low level of state pension. the full new state pension is around £220 per week. the old basic state pension is only around 170 per week. most of us would struggle to live on that and many pensioners do so. at the end of the day, the chancellor is right that we must protect pensioners. the national insurance cutter, for example, does not help pensioners at all. so, the chancellor is not cutting tax, but cutting national insurance, meaning he can afford to spend the extra money on pensioners. he also highlighted, this is the thing that will surprise many people, there is1 million pensioners whose only source of income is that state pension. they will be relying on that. as you said, taking to the £21 per week. 0ver said, taking to the £21 per week. over the year, it is an extra £900. 0nce over the year, it is an extra £900. once again, very difficult numbers. many of the oldest pensioners have a lot less than that, because the old state pension for people who reached pension age before 2016, often they have much lower pensions than under the new system, and many women are still in poverty. either they don't claim extra benefits they are entitled to, or maybe they have a tiny bit of extra income that might give them a bit more money, but not enough for a decent lifestyle. so, it's not the case that all pensioners are very well off. there is a myth, i think, pensioners are very well off. there is a myth, ithink, and pensioners are very well off. there is a myth, i think, and of course there are some well off pensioners, but the vast majority are not... they don't have as high incomes as working people. and, of course, they never have a chance to increase their income in future, once they have retired. i think it is right that society does recognise the need to look after pensions. i'm not sure the triple lock will stay forever. i personally would suggest that the government should reform and look at some major national review, to decide whether this is the best way to protect pensioners. iloathed decide whether this is the best way to protect pensioners.— to protect pensioners. what do you think is a better _ to protect pensioners. what do you think is a better way? _ to protect pensioners. what do you think is a better way? the - to protect pensioners. what do you think is a better way? the current i think is a better way? the current trile lock think is a better way? the current triple lock protects _ think is a better way? the current triple lock protects the _ think is a better way? the current triple lock protects the full - think is a better way? the current triple lock protects the full new i triple lock protects the full new state pension, which is about £50 per week higher than the old state pension, which the triple lock applies to. anything that you got from the state before the new system, coming from the additional pensions like state earnings —related pensions or second pension, thatis —related pensions or second pension, that is not triple locked. nor is the pension credit which the poorest pensioners rely on. so i think there is room to say the triple lock has done its job, is room to say the triple lock has done itsjob, pensioners are better off than they were in 2010, relative to the rest of the population, but they are still living on very low incomes. we still need to protect them. let's find a better way. maybe having the best of inflation and earnings, oran having the best of inflation and earnings, or an average of inflation and earnings. the 2.5% a bit of the triple lock really doesn't make any economic or social sense, it was really a cache of mechanism, but that has done its job.— really a cache of mechanism, but that has done its job. that has done its 'ob. good to see ou. that has done its 'ob. good to see you. well— that has done its 'ob. good to see you. we'll have — that has done its job. good to see you. we'll have all _ that has done its job. good to see you. we'll have all the _ that has done its job. good to see you. we'll have all the details - that has done its job. good to see you. we'll have all the details on | you. we'll have all the details on what that means for pensioners, people who will be getting the majority or their only income from the state pension. we talked about that being in crete in line with september's figures. we know september's figures. we know september's figures. we know september's figures determining how much those pensions will rise, a significant part of that is because the october figure is lower. the same is also true for benefits. in the pits will rise by the september figure as well, going up by 6.7%, applying to things like universal credit and disability benefit. interestingly, the chancellor was pointing out was, if people were not in work, not looking for work, perhaps out of work for 18 months and showing no signs of returning to