appeal from north wales location was known, and so we had an appealfrom north wales police, social media posts, from the boys' families, from a show where they were studying, to say that they were very concerned. and we know that the silver ford fiesta has been the cover further up that road. we have heard from a crystal, —— crystal, one of the mothers of the boys. she said that she did not know that they would come here to north wales. she has been frantically worried. he was a student at shrewsbury college, hassan, we believe. he left home on saturday night, but they did not know he was coming here, they thought he was going somewhere else. they have been tearing their hair out over the past 2a hours or so, as soon as it became clear that they had come to north wales, and secondly that they had disappeared. there was no contact with them at all since that sighting. since the telecommunications that happened. that was a mackie. in a's chief mike chris whitley has been giving evidence is money to the cave or inquiry. so far, the first lockdown, he says, as opposed to late. england's chief medical officer, professor sir chris witty, has been giving evidence this morning to the covid inquiry. so far, he has told the inquiry that in hindsight, the first lockdown in march 2020 was imposed too late. he denied warning ministers against lockdowns, saying he only made sure their downsides were clear. i thought sir patrick did an excellentjob in laying out his discomfort and my discomfort are trying to explain models in very short form press briefings, because they have two camp, rightly, with large numbers of caveats, which the models agree on. what inevitably happens with the models, is that you can't actually argue the number of people going into hospital, and the people going into hospital, and the people sadly dying. you can argue with the model. they tended to become a way in which both sides of a polarised debate tended to have their debates, with some people saying that the model was exaggerating, and the other groups say that this model is going to be terrible, so the models tended to the focus point, of the debates to peanut people who had a strong opposing views, because they are more debatable. also, because they weren't fully understood, quite a large number of the people who are debating them in public by doing so, essentially, they had a position they wanted to advance, and they were going to use the model to advance that position, almost whatever the model showed. i think this demonstrates that trying to use modelling outputs in a public discourse has to be done with care, it doesn't mean it shouldn't be done, but it has to be done with great care, but using actual data is much easier. everyone can understand it, you can test whether it is true or not, but if it is true to you can at least then interpret it. personally, that is why i far preferred, the summer presentations of data, i try where possible to only use either existing data or data with very short term projections, because i think that is much more straightforward to explain. the inquiry has reconvene for it afternoon session. before we go to it, just want to bring in our correspondents. live now to our corrrespondent ellie price for more on the inquiry. what do you make concerning what was said this morning, when you expect the lines of questioning to go? it was actually trusting this morning, because, don't forget, sir chris whitty is still in post, he was the chief medical officer during the pandemic as he still is. i think it was quite telling that he was not as critical as many of the other witnesses we have seen here, he talks about borisjohnson's talks about boris johnson's decision—making, talks about borisjohnson's decision—making, that was unique, and sometimes chaotic, but he pulled back from being a too personal. i'm not expecting to get too much of that criticism that we have seen from many of the other witnesses, but in essence, he said his role was to work with whoever was in power. i think that is an important point. then is the issue again and again of the government at the time said it will always follow the signs. we had today from chris whitty that he felt that that mantra was a millstone around his neck, because he felt that it blurs the line between scientific advice and political decisions. at the end of the day, with the politicians who made the decision, the scientists simply tell them what was going on. i think we will drill down to a bit more of what that meant during the pandemic. the best way to get those answers as to cross live to the inquiry. ellie, thank you so much. it to the inquiry. ellie, thank you so much. ., , , , to the inquiry. ellie, thank you so much. , , . ., ., much. it was pretty clear that it was not going _ much. it was pretty clear that it was not going to give us - was not going to give us any particular help. my view was that we would have a plan is going to be useful from a prevention or management point. a large number of useful components were in it, but there was not necessary not anything helpful there, there was not necessary not anything helpfulthere, but there was not necessary not anything helpful there, but there was a respiratory pandemic plan for the kind of pandemic that this was going to become if there was going to be a problem, that we could just take off the shelf and follow the playbook, was optimistic at best. can i pause ou was optimistic at best. can i pause you there. — was optimistic at best. can i pause you there, before _ was optimistic at best. can i pause you there, before you _ was optimistic at best. can i pause you there, before you move - was optimistic at best. can i pause you there, before you move the i you there, before you move the latter_ you there, before you move the latter point of your answer? prejudice _ latter point of your answer? prejudice explain why, although we have had _ prejudice explain why, although we have had a — prejudice explain why, although we have had a great deal of evidence about _ have had a great deal of evidence about the — have had a great deal of evidence about the 2011 flu strategy. —— could — about the 2011 flu strategy. —— could you _ about the 2011 flu strategy. —— could you just explain why. why in essence, — could you just explain why. why in essence, was the flu plan, government strategy, or any associated material, not of great or any particular help to this coronavirus outbreak with different characteristics and different potential countermeasures? there were some — potential countermeasures? there were some differences _ potential countermeasures? there were some differences that - potential countermeasures? ii—urr were some differences that were to do with the difference between flu and covid, which are more technical, but actually, my view, having looked at it, was had we had a flu pandemic, with a virus that had a mortality of, for the sake of argument, i—2%, which is what we were thinking at this point in time, it would also have been woefully deficient. it was not that it was about flu and this was covid met, it was about the fact that this was not designed to petite —— meets particular need at all, if anything i'm honest, ithink particular need at all, if anything i'm honest, i think it was clearly written by people who had just been through a pandemic in which the mortality lazy —— mortality was very low. the hi mortality lazy —— mortality was very low. the h1 in 1009 pandemic, for example, i think that had just led that they were not just modelling example, i think that had just led that they were notjust modelling it on that, but it clearly did not meet the needs of a 1918 style flu pandemic, which, in my view, was the kind of model which we need to be thinking about. —— h1m9 in 2009. 1918, 1957, thinking about. —— h1m9 in 2009. 1918,1957,1968, thinking about. —— h1m9 in 2009. 1918, 1957, 1968, for example, they seemed to be much closer to what we were going to see then 2009, if we saw anything at all. and not talking about the 16th of january 20 play, but i think this was by the end of january, this was my view. yes. but i think this was by the end of january, this was my view. yes, you sa , as january, this was my view. yes, you say. as of — january, this was my view. yes, you say. as ofjanuary — january, this was my view. yes, you say, as ofjanuary 2020. _ january, this was my view. yes, you say, as ofjanuary 2020. coming - january, this was my view. yes, you i say, as ofjanuary 2020. coming back please, _ say, as ofjanuary 2020. coming back please, to— say, as ofjanuary 2020. coming back please, to plans, you have dealt then— please, to plans, you have dealt then with — please, to plans, you have dealt then with the genesis of the existing _ then with the genesis of the existing plan. whether any other —— were _ existing plan. whether any other —— were there — existing plan. whether any other —— were there any other developed plans, _ were there any other developed plans, on— were there any other developed plans, on the dhs ce, orthe were there any other developed plans, on the dhs ce, or the civil contingency, or central government, generally? _ contingency, or central government, generally? to deal with the crisis as you _ generally? to deal with the crisis as you saw— generally? to deal with the crisis as you saw it emerging? not generally? to deal with the crisis as you saw it emerging? not that i ersonall as you saw it emerging? not that i personally thought _ as you saw it emerging? not that i personally thought were _ as you saw it emerging? not that i personally thought were massively useful to my role. there are some important things, many of them rather morbid, like, how do you... excess deaths, the number of body bags, things like that, but in terms of what you do at the pandemic, my view... that in itself would not have been an issue, if we had had large numbers of capabilities, because capabilities trumps plans every single time. and it was the lack of capability that was the bigger problem, in my view. 50 lack of capability that was the bigger problem, in my view. so this was obviously _ bigger problem, in my view. so this was obviously a _ bigger problem, in my view. so this was obviously a very _ bigger problem, in my view. so this was obviously a very serious - was obviously a very serious broblern _ was obviously a very serious problem. it was effectively a complete absence of plans to be able to deal— complete absence of plans to be able to deal with this particular crisis, this particular virus, and this particular— this particular virus, and this particular emerging pandemic. the system, _ particular emerging pandemic. the system, in — particular emerging pandemic. the system, in terms of beds, public health— system, in terms of beds, public health facilities, is on the edge, anyway, — health facilities, is on the edge, anyway, and —— was on the edge, anyway _ anyway, and —— was on the edge, anyway. and _ anyway, and —— was on the edge, anyway. and there was no any consideration of what could have been _ consideration of what could have been done, because this was the first covid — been done, because this was the first covid pandemic that was going to hit— first covid pandemic that was going to hit the _ first covid pandemic that was going to hit the united kingdom in a major way. to hit the united kingdom in a major way your— to hit the united kingdom in a major way. your statement, paragraph 7.43, says this _ way. your statement, paragraph 7.43, says this click— way. your statement, paragraph 7.43, says this click on the 20th of january— says this click on the 20th of january onwards, we commence —— commence _ january onwards, we commence —— commence preparations in earnest to be ready— commence preparations in earnest to be ready for— commence preparations in earnest to be ready for a pandemic, we want to occur _ be ready for a pandemic, we want to occur now. — be ready for a pandemic, we want to occur. now, you will know of course, because _ occur. now, you will know of course, because it _ occur. now, you will know of course, because it was in your statement and you were _ because it was in your statement and you were there, that there was a meeting — you were there, that there was a meeting on— you were there, that there was a meeting on 25th of february with the prime _ meeting on 25th of february with the prime minister, the health secretary, foreign secretary, sir patrick. — secretary, foreign secretary, sir patrick, and yourself, in which ministers _ patrick, and yourself, in which ministers ordered that a plan be brought— ministers ordered that a plan be brought together, drawn up, by the civil contingencies secretariat, and as you _ civil contingencies secretariat, and as you know, they did produce a plan _ as you know, they did produce a plan but— as you know, they did produce a plan. but that plan was produced on the 28th— plan. but that plan was produced on the 28th of— plan. but that plan was produced on the 28th of february. it was the paper— the 28th of february. it was the paper called, the uk's preparedness. that was— paper called, the uk's preparedness. that was self evidently, over one month— that was self evidently, over one month later, so do you have a view as to _ month later, so do you have a view as to the _ month later, so do you have a view as to the length of time that was required — as to the length of time that was required to elapse before even that first attempt to bring together a combined plan was produced? there was a lot of— combined plan was produced? there was a lot of planning _ combined plan was produced? there was a lot of planning for— combined plan was produced? ii—urr was a lot of planning for individual components. as you say, there was not an overarching plan. what it is worth, i come up with some others, came up with the formulation which i think is being misunderstood, but of contained delayed mitigation... principe, to get the first three under way, and you look at some of the plans as they came out, those three components where the components that were relatively work through, in terms of having some kind of meat on the bones, of the plan. —— principally. the bit i was directly response before was the research bit. that was in my role as head of the mhr. we moved on that quite fast, i think we did not wait for a plan from anybody else. i think there were very definite various elements on contain. i think those with the elements where we were moving practically and by the end of january. were moving practically and by the end ofjanuary-— were moving practically and by the end ofjanuary. end of january. professor, going to ask ou end of january. professor, going to ask you again. _ end of january. professor, going to ask you again, please _ end of january. professor, going to ask you again, please slow - end of january. professor, going to ask you again, please slow down. i j ask you again, please slow down. apologise. ask you again, please slow down. i apologise. i know— ask you again, please slow down. i apologise. i know that _ ask you again, please slow down. i apologise. i know that you - ask you again, please slow down. i apologise. i know that you know i ask you again, please slow down. i l apologise. i know that you know that i'm wavin: apologise. i know that you know that m waving my _ apologise. i know that you know that i'm waving my hand _ apologise. i know that you know that i'm waving my hand at _ apologise. i know that you know that i'm waving my hand at you _ apologise. i know that you know that i'm waving my hand at you to - apologise. i know that you know that i'm waving my hand at you to try - apologise. i know that you know that i'm waving my hand at you to try and slow down _ i'm waving my hand at you to try and slow down. , i'm waving my hand at you to try and slow down-— i'm waving my hand at you to try and slow down. , , ., , ., slow down. this might enthusiasm to answer your — slow down. this might enthusiasm to answer your questions. _ slow down. this might enthusiasm to answer your questions. well, - slow down. this might enthusiasm to answer your questions. well, long i answer your questions. well, long ma it answer your questions. well, long may it continue, _ answer your questions. well, long may it continue, professor. - answer your questions. well, long may it continue, professor. you i answer your questions. well, long i may it continue, professor. you must have been— may it continue, professor. you must have been obviously very concerned by the _ have been obviously very concerned by the absence of plans, because whilst _ by the absence of plans, because whilst there were no doubt many documents dealing with particular hospitals — documents dealing with particular hospitals and nhs trusts, and high dependency beds, facilities, itu beds, _ dependency beds, facilities, itu beds, and — dependency beds, facilities, itu beds, and so on and so forth, there wasm _ beds, and so on and so forth, there wasm in _ beds, and so on and so forth, there was... in essence, and there have been _ was... in essence, and there have been no _ was... in essence, and there have been no real— was... in essence, and there have been no real consideration of what sort of— been no real consideration of what sort of countermeasures might have to be _ sort of countermeasures might have to be thought about and ultimately deploy _ to be thought about and ultimately deploy -- — to be thought about and ultimately deploy. —— icu. is that a fair summary? _ deploy. -- icu. is that a fair summary?— deploy. -- icu. is that a fair summary?- and, i deploy. -- icu. is that a fair. summary?- and, before deploy. -- icu. is that a fair- summary?- and, before you summary? yes... and, before you answer, summary? yes... and, before you answer. no _ summary? yes... and, before you answer, no team _ summary? yes... and, before you answer, no team of— summary? yes... and, before you answer, no team of course - summary? yes... and, before you answer, no team of course that i summary? yes... and, before you l answer, no team of course that such countermeasures have been used or envisaged _ countermeasures have been used or envisaged for the purpose of flu, but not _ envisaged for the purpose of flu, but not necessarily applicable to coronavirus.— but not necessarily applicable to coronavirus. , , , ., coronavirus. yes, but can i gloss on what ou coronavirus. yes, but can i gloss on what you have _ coronavirus. yes, but can i gloss on what you have just _ coronavirus. yes, but can i gloss on what you have just said, _ coronavirus. yes, but can i gloss on what you have just said, because i i what you havejust said, because i think this is a very central point? if there has been a plan and i'm going to cause upsets to some of my planning colleagues,, but i had to do it anyway, but a plan that was laid out, this is how the playbook should run, it would almost certainly have been the wrong plan and could even have slowed us down, because we would then have to spend ages arguing about whether it was the right plan, doubting the plan. sometimes it is easier actually to start with a new plan, but what we needed was all the building blocks. in my view, we had some of the building blocks, intellectually and practically, but we definitely did not have all. they were constructed, in many cases come in quite a rush, in many cases come in quite a rush, in february and march. but preparations, _ in february and march. but preparations, although you say they commenced in earnest, had to wait, the outcome — commenced in earnest, had to wait, the outcome of whatever planning central _ the outcome of whatever planning central government decided need to be done? _ central government decided need to be done? in a large part?— be done? in a large part? i would sa , be done? in a large part? i would say. as is— be done? in a large part? i would say, as is usually _ be done? in a large part? i would say, as is usually the _ be done? in a large part? i would say, as is usually the case - be done? in a large part? i would say, as is usually the case of- say, as is usually the case of emergencies in my experience with the people that need to act, started to act well in advance of the planned the supposed to be acting on. ., . planned the supposed to be acting on, ., ., . planned the supposed to be acting on. ., ., . .. ., on. you have referenced the action lan, to on. you have referenced the action plan. to which _ on. you have referenced the action plan, to which you _ on. you have referenced the action plan, to which you contributed, i on. you have referenced the action | plan, to which you contributed, and we will— plan, to which you contributed, and we will come back to that. that is the coronavirus action plan on the 3rd of— the coronavirus action plan on the 3rd of march. it has been described as a comesm — 3rd of march. it has been described as a comes... as you said, there were _ as a comes... as you said, there were plans — as a comes... as you said, there were plans within nhs trusts, and within— were plans within nhs trusts, and within particular parts of the situation, but none of those plans, as they— situation, but none of those plans, as they were, or thinking, went directly— as they were, or thinking, went directly towards what sort of countermeasures, nationally, might we have _ countermeasures, nationally, might we have to — countermeasures, nationally, might we have to contemplate. it came later, _ we have to contemplate. it came later, did — we have to contemplate. it came later, did it— we have to contemplate. it came later, did it not? it we have to contemplate. it came later, did it not?— we have to contemplate. it came later, did it not?- and i we have to contemplate. it came later, did it not?- and so, | later, did it not? it did. and so, when you _ later, did it not? it did. and so, when you say — later, did it not? it did. and so, when you say in _ later, did it not? it did. and so, when you say in your _ later, did it not? it did. and so, when you say in your statement j later, did it not? it did. and so, i when you say in your statement that preparations commenced in earnest to be ready— preparations commenced in earnest to be ready for— preparations commenced in earnest to be ready for a pandemic, preparations commenced in earnest to be ready fora pandemic, is preparations commenced in earnest to be ready for a pandemic, is that not 'ust be ready for a pandemic, is that not just a _ be ready for a pandemic, is that not just a reference to such strategic thinking — just a reference to such strategic thinking as was done, that led to the action— thinking as was done, that led to the action plan, and to various desperate _ the action plan, and to various desperate parts of the system? there was no _ desperate parts of the system? there was no central plan, telling the government had to respond nationally to the _ government had to respond nationally to the crisis, until the end of february _ to the crisis, until the end of february-— to the crisis, until the end of februa . , my ., , to the crisis, until the end of februa. , ., , y february. yes, basically, that is my view. and february. yes, basically, that is my view- and if — february. yes, basically, that is my view. and if i'm honest, _ february. yes, basically, that is my view. and if i'm honest, i _ february. yes, basically, that is my view. and if i'm honest, i would i february. yes, basically, that is my view. and if i'm honest, i would go| view. and if i'm honest, i would go on a bit further than that. this may seem a long way down the track, but mid—march, i wrote a 3—page strategy document with tactical pillars underneath it, and i did so, really, because i thought it was unclear what else there was, so that was my attempt to do that. it was a retrofitting of a strategy and tactical pillars in some senses, the individual components that were there. it was and that nothing was happening, and i think that people often assume, that you get strategy then plan, then operations can actually come in emergencies, it often is reversed. and the plan almost comes last, in terms of the strategy, how you lay the thing over the top. arguably, to some extent, that was during the next six weeks. you have accepted, and six so patrici concerning possible countermeasures, how the country should respond, or if these _ how the country should respond, or if these plans had been produced somewhat more speedily than they had, acknowledging that it took from the 20th— had, acknowledging that it took from the 20th ofjanuary to the 28th of february— the 20th ofjanuary to the 28th of february to produce them, that then we might— february to produce them, that then we might have been in a position or a better— we might have been in a position or a better position to have gone earlier? — a better position to have gone earlier? l— a better position to have gone earlier? ., �* ~' a better position to have gone earlier? ., �* ,, ~' earlier? i don't think... so i think the components _ earlier? i don't think... so i think the components of— earlier? i don't think... so i think the components of the _ earlier? i don't think... so i think the components of the plan i earlier? i don't think... so i think the components of the plan were | the components of the plan were possible to drop quite early on, and my view was that the action plan, which is a perfectly sensible document, had those components in it. the fundamental bit, though, was what was flamed to shake framed is mitigated. which was attempted by lot of people a lot of different ways. lot of people a lot of different wa s. ., lot of people a lot of different wa s. ., ., ., lot of people a lot of different wa s. . ., ., . , ., ways. can we avoid the conceptual debate? yes. _ ways. can we avoid the conceptual debate? yes, but _ ways. can we avoid the conceptual debate? yes, but the _ ways. can we avoid the conceptual debate? yes, but the reason i ways. can we avoid the conceptual debate? yes, but the reason in i debate? yes, but the reason in makin: debate? yes, but the reason in making this _ debate? yes, but the reason in making this point, _ debate? yes, but the reason in making this point, is _ debate? yes, but the reason in making this point, is that i debate? yes, but the reason in making this point, is that that l debate? yes, but the reason in l making this point, is that that bit of the plan had to wait until ministers had decided what their strategic goals were, and the end point was, and additionally, the big problems we had in early march, in my view, principally arose from the fact that we didn't realise how far on the part we were, and on the transition, and the testing view, rather because we like a document, in february. i apologise for sounding slightly cautious about the importance of documents, in this kind, but i'm just being practical about how emergencies tend to play out, and the documents are often quite late in the process.- quite late in the process. please don't apologise _ quite late in the process. please don't apologise for— quite late in the process. please don't apologise for something i quite late in the process. please l don't apologise for something that quite late in the process. please i don't apologise for something that i have suggested you are by nature! you have _ have suggested you are by nature! you have referred to the strategic decision— you have referred to the strategic decision making of ministers. that is another— decision making of ministers. that is another important part, another important — is another important part, another important component. along with the delay in— important component. along with the delay in bringing together formulated plans for how the country should _ formulated plans for how the country should respond, what could be done to prevent _ should respond, what could be done to prevent the spread, either by way of depression or mitigation matters, not the _ of depression or mitigation matters, not the spread of the virus? —— suppression. there was the issue of strategic— suppression. there was the issue of strategic decision, it's black. ministers... —— its lack. ministers do not _ ministers... —— its lack. ministers do not act — ministers... —— its lack. ministers do not act therefore late in the chronology, to enable the planners and the _ chronology, to enable the planners and the doers,...l chronology, to enable the planners and the doers,...— and the doers,... i think, within this, and _ and the doers,... i think, within this. and m — and the doers,... i think, within this, and i'm going _ and the doers,... i think, within this, and i'm going to... - and the doers,... i think, within this, and i'm going to... i- and the doers,... i think, withinj this, and i'm going to... i hope, helpfully, divide things into what i consider are technocratic elements and what i consider our political elements, the technocratic elements and i've given an indication of what i was most responsible for, the research side, could just get on. they could just crack on, we had a job to do, and once you get into things that require political decisions and the big decisions, regarding whether this is borders, lockdown, all these kinds of issues, these require, and economic implications, either direct, or they cost a lot, or indirect on the economy, though is, fundamentally are ministerial ones. i think that is where we were definitely slower than we should have been for a variety of reasons. find than we should have been for a variety of reasons.— than we should have been for a variety of reasons. and it may well be, i'm variety of reasons. and it may well be. m sure _ variety of reasons. and it may well be. m sure you — variety of reasons. and it may well be, i'm sure you would _ variety of reasons. and it may well be, i'm sure you would agree, i variety of reasons. and it may wellj be, i'm sure you would agree, that government— be, i'm sure you would agree, that government the momentous nature of those _ government the momentous nature of those decisions come in is not altogether surprising that the system — altogether surprising that the system does not allow for particularly speedy responses. it takes _ particularly speedy responses. it takes time for government to be able to make _ takes time for government to be able to make up _ takes time for government to be able to make up its mind as to what needs to make up its mind as to what needs to be _ to make up its mind as to what needs to be done _ to make up its mind as to what needs to be done. and to make up its mind as to what needs to be done. �* ., to make up its mind as to what needs to be done-— to be done. and on this one, i want to be done. and on this one, i want to be done. and on this one, i want to be clear. — to be done. and on this one, i want to be clear. l'm _ to be done. and on this one, i want to be clear, i'm not— to be done. and on this one, i want to be clear, i'm not saying - to be done. and on this one, i want to be clear, i'm not saying that i to be clear, i'm not saying that this is the problem of the politicians, i think it might be worth us ping back to this discussion we get a little bit further down the track, because i think there was a point where it could have been possible to accelerate this, and why that did not happen. i think there is probably what we are fetching on. which point did you have in mind? that is— which point did you have in mind? that is where i and others, particularly when we briefed the prime minister on the 4th of february, this was not the prime minister, but the system at that point i think it could have taken a different tact in the way it did. is different tact in the way it did. is this on account of the obvious today that there _ this on account of the obvious today that there was, in terms of output, between _ that there was, in terms of output, between the beginning of february and late _ between the beginning of february and late february? will between the beginning of february and late february?— and late february? will be worth auoin and late february? will be worth going over _ and late february? will be worth going over that _ and late february? will be worth going over that in _ and late february? will be worth going over that in particular i going over that in particular because there are no specifics to it, but i think this is an example would probably need to learn from the future, without blaming any individual. the au individuals did a good job. individual. the au individuals did a goodjob. —— individual. the au individuals did a good job. —— all individuals. itirel’e’re good 'ob. -- all individuals. we're 'ust good job. -- all individuals. we're 'ust auoin good job. -- all individuals. we're just going to _ good job. -- all individuals. we're just going to look— good job. -- all individuals. we're just going to look through - good job. —— all individuals. we're just going to look through quickly, some _ just going to look through quickly, some of— just going to look through quickly, some of the most important meetings and some _ some of the most important meetings and some of the most important events— and some of the most important events in— and some of the most important events injanuary and february, so the sage — events injanuary and february, so the sage meeting, it is a precautionary sage meeting, of the 22nd of— precautionary sage meeting, of the 22nd ofjanuary, 1747 precautionary sage meeting, of the 22nd ofjanuary,1747 00,... on page two, _ 22nd ofjanuary,1747 00,... on page two, paragraph seven, there is a reference — two, paragraph seven, there is a reference to this, there is evidence of person—to—person transmission. it is unknown _ of person—to—person transmission. it is unknown whether transmission was sustainable — is unknown whether transmission was sustainable. this is a reference to the early— sustainable. this is a reference to the early debate we had, professor. this there _ the early debate we had, professor. this there was, produced for this meeting. — this there was, produced for this meeting. a — this there was, produced for this meeting, a commonly recognised information picture, to use the wonderful— information picture, to use the wonderful nomenclature of government. could we have that please? — government. could we have that please? page four. is government. could we have that please? page four.— please? page four. is this for a sage or a- -- — please? page four. is this for a sage ora... 2 _ please? page four. is this for a sage ora... 2 it— please? page four. is this for a sage ora... 2 it is— please? page four. is this for a sage or a... 2 it is dated - please? page four. is this for a sage or a... 2 it is dated the | sage or a... ? it is dated the information _ sage or a... ? it is dated the information correct _ sage or a... ? it is dated the information correct as i sage or a... ? it is dated the information correct as of i sage or a... 2 it is dated the | information correct as of friday sage or a... 2 it is dated the - information correct as of friday the 20th -- _ information correct as of friday the 20th -- 24th — information correct as of friday the 20th -- 24th of information correct as of friday the 20th —— 24th ofjanuary. but the date _ 20th —— 24th ofjanuary. but the date given — 20th —— 24th ofjanuary. but the date given the on page four is a reference — date given the on page four is a reference of the 20th ofjanuary. it may have — reference of the 20th ofjanuary. it may have been produced for the 20th~~ — may have been produced for the 20th. .. , , ., , may have been produced for the 20th... , , ., , ., ., 20th. .. yes, this would be not a sage document. _ 20th. .. yes, this would be not a sage document. it _ 20th. .. yes, this would be not a sage document. it says, - 20th. .. yes, this would be not a sage document. it says, with i 20th. .. yes, this would be not a i sage document. it says, with human team in transmission,... _ sage document. it says, with human team in transmission,... is _ sage document. it says, with human team in transmission,... is that i team in transmission,... is that because — team in transmission,... is that because there was a significant change — because there was a significant change between the 22nd ofjanuary and the _ change between the 22nd ofjanuary and the 24th? all around the 22nd of january? _ and the 24th? all around the 22nd of january? in _ and the 24th? all around the 22nd of janua ? , , . , m and the 24th? all around the 22nd of janua ? m . ,m . ., january? in essence, it became clear that the human-to-human _ january? in essence, it became clear. that the human-to-human transmission that the human—to—human transmission wasn't limited. it wasn't sustained. yes, it was sustained. yes, i think there was confidence in that moment that it was a sustained contact. reporting on the 23rd of january, that it was a sustained contact. reporting on the 23rd ofjanuary, to government, that he was human transition. — government, that he was human transition, self sustaining human—to—human transition, was the only plausible explanation for the size of— only plausible explanation for the size of the outbreak. we certain, nevertheless, or how sure where you, nevertheless, or how sure where you, nevertheless, at this stage, that human—to—human transition transmission was a sustainable? | transmission was a sustainable? i think everyone is confident, and i was, then it was sustainable at this point in time, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it remains the way indefinitely. if i could just take the recent examples, because i just want to illustrate, the critical point, the way that we thought about of the next few weeks, if you think about the major—league epidemic in brazil, and if you think about sars, which has got some similarities. —— majorzika similarities. —— major zika epidemic. similarities. —— majorzika epidemic. they were sustainable and with long trains —— chains. and then they died out. that inevitably means that you end up going to have a sustained, and in a different sense, over multiples of months, two years, a transmission, those two men, one is necessary for the second and not sufficient. ., , m , ., ,~' sufficient. professor, i must ask ou to sufficient. professor, i must ask you to slow— sufficient. professor, i must ask you to slow down, _ sufficient. professor, i must ask you to slow down, you - sufficient. professor, i must ask you to slow down, you are i sufficient. professor, i must askj you to slow down, you are going sufficient. professor, i must ask i you to slow down, you are going very fast. y you to slow down, you are going very fast-- around — you to slow down, you are going very fast.- around this _ you to slow down, you are going very fast.- around this time, - you to slow down, you are going very fast. sorry. around this time, the 24th ofjanuary. _ fast. sorry. around this time, the 24th of january, there _ fast. sorry. around this time, the 24th ofjanuary, there were i fast. sorry. around this time, the i 24th ofjanuary, there were e-mails 24th ofjanuary, there were e—mails between _ 24th ofjanuary, there were e—mails between professors woolhouse and ferguson _ between professors woolhouse and ferguson and with jeremy farrar, between professors woolhouse and ferguson and withjeremy farrar, in which _ ferguson and withjeremy farrar, in which the _ ferguson and withjeremy farrar, in which the debate and professor woolhouse is particularly strong on the issue _ woolhouse is particularly strong on the issue on whether or not the central— the issue on whether or not the central asp net estimates, published by the _ central asp net estimates, published by the debate show, indicate that have people the united kingdom and many other countries where it may be infectedm _ many other countries where it may be infectedm "— many other countries where it may be infected... —— published by the who. you were _ infected... —— published by the who. you were not— infected... —— published by the who. you were not party to those e—mails. but professor ferguson, in one of those _ but professor ferguson, in one of those e—mails, says, fully agree, jeremy— those e—mails, says, fully agree, jeremy and — those e—mails, says, fully agree, jeremy and i were saying the same to patrick— jeremy and i were saying the same to patrick vallance and chris whitty last night. so, roughly an evening of the _ last night. so, roughly an evening of the 23rd — last night. so, roughly an evening of the 23rd of the 24th ofjanuary. so, of the 23rd of the 24th ofjanuary. so. along — of the 23rd of the 24th ofjanuary. so, along with the clear evidence of a sustained — so, along with the clear evidence of a sustained person—to—person transmission, along with their concerns. _ transmission, along with their concerns, based upon the who material. — concerns, based upon the who material, there was no doubt in your mind. _ material, there was no doubt in your mind. was— material, there was no doubt in your mind, was there, that there was a hi-h mind, was there, that there was a high degree of trust disability? that there was a sustained human—to—human transmission? in essence. _ human—to—human transmission? in essence. this— human—to—human transmission? in essence, this was a very dangerous and transmissible virus. yes, essence, this was a very dangerous and transmissible virus.— and transmissible virus. yes, there is no doubt- _ and transmissible virus. yes, there is no doubt. on _ and transmissible virus. yes, there is no doubt. on the _ and transmissible virus. yes, there is no doubt. on the 28th _ and transmissible virus. yes, there is no doubt. on the 28th of - and transmissible virus. yes, there | is no doubt. on the 28th ofjanuary. you e-mailed _ is no doubt. on the 28th ofjanuary. you e-mailed a _ is no doubt. on the 28th ofjanuary. you e-mailed a health _ is no doubt. on the 28th ofjanuary. you e-mailed a health special i you e—mailed a health special adviser— you e—mailed a health special adviser in— you e—mailed a health special adviser in at number 10, because we have 47585. — adviser in at number 10, because we have 47585, please? —— could we have? _ have 47585, please? —— could we have? and — have 47585, please? —— could we have? and you identify and we have seen this— have? and you identify and we have seen this e—mail before, but you identify— seen this e—mail before, but you identify two scenarios as being the only ones— identify two scenarios as being the only ones worth considering for planning — only ones worth considering for planning at this point. and they are. _ planning at this point. and they are. of— planning at this point. and they are, of course, at either ends of the risk— are, of course, at either ends of the risk scale, the first one is china — the risk scale, the first one is china has— the risk scale, the first one is china has a _ the risk scale, the first one is china has a major outbreak, but bring _ china has a major outbreak, but bring death make brings it under control. — bring death make brings it under control, but the other scenario is the opposite, then it spread, and it comes— the opposite, then it spread, and it comes out— the opposite, then it spread, and it comes out of china, and there are those _ comes out of china, and there are those consequences that you set outcome — those consequences that you set outcome in terms of the estimated r valuei _ outcome in terms of the estimated r value. the _ outcome in terms of the estimated r value, the rupert activity, the incubation, for example. —— reproductive ability. at the time, you are _ reproductive ability. at the time, you are aware of the general concerns— you are aware of the general concerns about admissibility and you are aware. _ concerns about admissibility and you are aware, were you not, that if the virus _ are aware, were you not, that if the virus does _ are aware, were you not, that if the virus does it— are aware, were you not, that if the virus does it spread from china, then. _ virus does it spread from china, then. given _ virus does it spread from china, then, given these characteristics, in terms — then, given these characteristics, in terms of— then, given these characteristics, in terms of mortality, doubling time. — in terms of mortality, doubling time, transmissibility and so on, there _ time, transmissibility and so on, there was— time, transmissibility and so on, there was going to be a very real problem. — there was going to be a very real problem, as far as the united kingdom _ problem, as far as the united kingdom was concerned? yes, and that is the reason — kingdom was concerned? yes, and that is the reason i — kingdom was concerned? yes, and that is the reason i wrote _ kingdom was concerned? yes, and that is the reason i wrote to _ kingdom was concerned? yes, and that is the reason i wrote to number - kingdom was concerned? yes, and that is the reason i wrote to number 10. i is the reason i wrote to number 10. indeed. what thoughts did you give at that— indeed. what thoughts did you give at that time to what practical measures might be put into place, between _ measures might be put into place, between this date, the 28th of january. — between this date, the 28th of january, and the end of february, which _ january, and the end of february, which is _ january, and the end of february, which is when we got the plans back from the _ which is when we got the plans back from the civil contingencies secretariat, to stop or prevent spread. — secretariat, to stop or prevent spread. to — secretariat, to stop or prevent spread, to stop that worst—case scenario? — spread, to stop that worst—case scenario? l— spread, to stop that worst-case scenario? ~ spread, to stop that worst-case scenario? ,, ., ., ., scenario? i think that one of the thins i scenario? i think that one of the things i was _ scenario? i think that one of the things i was trying _ scenario? i think that one of the things i was trying to _ scenario? i think that one of the things i was trying to do - scenario? i think that one of the things i was trying to do in i scenario? i think that one of the things i was trying to do in this i things i was trying to do in this e—mail and i tried to do and a lot of the advice i gave, was that i was concerned that the government would think that there was likely to be a middle way, and i wanted to remove that possibility from their planning assumptions. my view was we would get similar cases, but that they would get contained in china, it is less than it currently looks, and, fine, that would be a big problem in china, but it would be a much more limited global impact. or it was going to become a global pandemic. i could not see based on the characteristics, a middle path where it was a moderate problem. that was the point i was trying to make here. which is why it is a dichotomous decision? — which is why it is a dichotomous decision? ~ , . which is why it is a dichotomous decision? ~ y , ., ., decision? why there is not a fudge in the middle. _ decision? why there is not a fudge in the middle, which _ decision? why there is not a fudge in the middle, which is _ decision? why there is not a fudge in the middle, which is obviously i in the middle, which is obviously the temptation for people to go into. and if you have a pandemic but not starting your own country, there is not a great deal you can actually do yourself, to stop it. you can then do the things we had talked about, so slow to load, research and mitigate, but you can't stop it. that genie is out of the bottle and you have no control over it. so i wanted people to be aware that that was basically the dichotomous position we were facing. you identified the priority is to prevent— you identified the priority is to prevent any uk transmission, because if the _ prevent any uk transmission, because if the virus _ prevent any uk transmission, because if the virus licks out of china, the wave _ if the virus licks out of china, the wave is— if the virus licks out of china, the wave is coming —— leaks. unless it can be _ wave is coming —— leaks. unless it can be prevented, this virus is coming. — can be prevented, this virus is coming, because that is what viruses do. coming, because that is what viruses do so— coming, because that is what viruses do so that _ coming, because that is what viruses do so that is — coming, because that is what viruses do. so that is the key, prevent any uk transmission? in a do. so that is the key, prevent any uk transmission?— uk transmission? in a sense it has two different _ uk transmission? in a sense it has two different aims, _ uk transmission? in a sense it has two different aims, prevent, i uk transmission? in a sense it has two different aims, prevent, in i uk transmission? in a sense it has| two different aims, prevent, in this context, and if this was a situation like
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