Now on bbc news, john simpson presents his program unspun world. Hello, and welcome to unspun world. Im john simpson. Not much doubt about our main story this week, naturally, and in a moment, ill be analysing the latest situation in israel and gaza. But also on this programme, immigration, probably the dominant topic in europe at present. Is there any foolproof way of stopping the Illegal Movement of people . Shouldnt we start thinking further upstream . Are we dealing with Development Issues so that people are less desirous of leaving their home countries in the first place . The Us Government has serious political problems in paying its way, but do ordinary Americans Care if their politicians jam up the works deliberately . A lot of republican voters, a lot of republican Rank And File members, think the country is heading in a terribly wrong direction. A government has gotten too big that if something isnt done very, very soon, that itll be too late to save the country. And in india, the bbc has discovered a vast and cruel scam which has led to poverty, fear, and suicide. When we spoke to victims here, the first thing that they said that the mental torture that they went through was beyond anything. They said the money actually became secondary for them. Shouting. Nobody saw this coming. Only a fortnight ago, the Us National Security adviser said the middle east was quieter than it had been for years. Israelis were celebrating a religious holiday. Soldiers were on leave. Politicians were taking time off at home. It was uncannily similar to what happened 50 years ago in 1973, when egypt and syria launched their totally unexpected attack on israel in the yom kippur war. Israel survived, but no one� s ever forgotten the moment of utter israeli vulnerability, nor the successes of the arab armies, just as no one will forget israels total intelligence blank this time. Israel says hamas deliberately targeted israeli civilians. An american official called it the worst attack on jews since the holocaust. Weve seen clear visual evidence of appalling atrocities carried out by hamas in jewish settlements. How does israel respond . The options include the widescale bombing of gaza, which weve already seen, right up to and including an all out invasion of the territory. Netanyahu has warned civilians to leave gaza, something thats actually really hard for them to do. Israel is at war. We didnt want this war. It was forced upon us in the most brutal and savage way. The big backer of hamas, both in money terms and in weaponry, is iran. Its Supreme Leader met the head of hamas back injune, when the planning of this attack must have been in full swing. We dont know if iran knew about it or approved it, but one of irans big worries is that its old rival, saudi arabia, has been cosying up to israel. The saudis will find it a lot harder to do that now with fighting going on in gaza. Coincidence, or deliberate planning by iran . Many people think israel let its guard down. It didnt believe hamas was planning a war, and it didnt see the signs that one was coming. It happened on Benjamin Netanyahus watch, and he seems likely, at some point, to pay the price for it. A few months after the yom kippur warfinished, israels long serving Prime Minister, golda meir, had to resign. Over the decades that followed, the dominant labour party, which she had led, dwindled in political power, and right wing governments began to dominate israel. So will this new attack make israel even fiercer and more defiant, or will it decide its got to look for more Peaceful Solutions . It could take weeks or months before the fightings over, but these questions will start to become more and more pressing. Immigration changes countries. Some people in britain would say that immigration has opened it up to the world and improved its Service Culture immeasurably. Others would say that the country has lost its sense of identity. Swedens going through a major crime wave, which many blame directly on the huge degree of immigration the country has gone through. Japan has, by comparison with western countries, resisted the push of immigration, and its population is aging fast and its economy is flatlining as a result. So finding the correct balance is very hard indeed. Last weeks meeting in spain of the new ali nation european political community, a french idea Which Britain has enthusiastically supported, talked a lot about other things, especially ukraine but anxiety about immigration, and particularly illegal immigration, dominated the members� concerns. James landale, the bbc� s diplomatic correspondent, reported on the epc� s meeting. Its a problem notjust for now, but its a problem for the long term. If you look at all the demographic charts that International Organisations from the un upwards and downwards show, particularly in africa, you see the curves are like that, in terms of population rises going up over the next 20, 30 years. So governments are trying to deal with it. And whats fascinating at the moment is that theres a real sort of attempt to try and change the culture of the debate, because thus far, certainly within the European Union itself, most of the debate ultimately tends to become over whats called burden sharing. In other words, who should pay for what . Who should be processing which migrants when . Essentially, its an argument that where you have the Southern Mediterranean countries, spain, italy, and greece, who tend to be the first ports of call. Because theyre facing africa and asia, yes. Because of their geography. And the question is, how much support should those countries get from the rest of the European Union . What i think we saw and are seeing at the moment is a debate, an attempt by some key leaders, im talking about the Prime Minister of italy, president macron is in on this too, the british Prime Minister, rishi sunak, saying, look, shouldnt we start thinking further upstream . In other words, are borders tough enough . Are we tackling the people smugglers enough . All of those kinds of issues. Are we dealing with Development Issues so that people are less desirous of leaving their home countries in the first place . If you look at, for example, last week there was an eight point plan agreed by the uk, italy, france, albania, and a few other countries which said, yes, we need to toughen up on our borders. But also it did say we need to think about longer term development, sustainable development. We also need to think about creating more legal routes for migrants to come, so that youre not having to deal with sort of the illegal side of migration you know, trafficking, dangerous boats and, you know, the sheer humanitarian consequences of all that. I mean, the british home secretary, suella braverman, would say weve got to really chop down the illegal immigration business. Is that a possibility . The policy of trying to stop them in the channel clearly isnt working. You know, some numbers are down compared to last year, but theyre still coming. I think what. If you talk to officials at the home office, what theyre trying to do is saying, look, what can we do to stop all of these boats getting to france in the first place . In other words, do you do a deal with bulgaria to so that you can share intelligence, cooperate on an operational level, so that all of these boats, most of which are made in china and come through turkey, do you stop them there . How do you deter that . How do you interdict them . Do you take over these warehouses where theyre all being. . In other words, you look at that rather than just saying, should we send out a few naval bolt cutters from the the Border Agency . Of course, britain pulled out of the eu. How difficult is it for the british to have a decent kind of relationship with other eu members . What really struck me at this meeting that i was at, and this was a meeting of the 27 eu Member States and heads of government, but also another 20 odd non eu european heads of state. In other words, you know, efta, the former soviet countries, people like that and now including the uk. And what was fascinating is to see sitting around a table in a room, youve got the Prime Minister of the uk, rishi sunak, plus the Prime Minister of italy, giorgia meloni, co chairing a meeting, around which that table was ursula von der leyen, the head of the european commission, edi rama, the head of government in albania, and Emmanuel Macron from france. And they were chatting together. Now, that is not a group of people that you see sitting around a table very often. So they clearly have a mutual Self Interest to be cooperating, to be seen to cooperate with one another. Immigration, that is certainly an area where the uk can have a relationship, is having a relationship and probably you couldnt have had a relationship like that before rishi sunak was Prime Minister. I think thats a reasonablejudgment. I suppose one of the the basic questions here is, is immigration, large scale immigration, good for a country . My experience of talking to diplomats and officials about this is what theyre trying to do is to say, how can you manage immigration . How can you find the right sweet spot between complete uncontrolled immigration that involves illegality but at the same time, not having complete sort of closed borders. Because if you think about it, at the moment, whatever ones view about immigration, whether you think it is a good thing or a bad thing for the nation in which one lives the truth of it is that i think pretty much everybody can agree that whats happening right now is, from a purely humanitarian point of view, bad, to have so many people dying in different countries. You hear stories of people being trafficked and then they die in the process because theyre trapped in a lorry that has no air. These are awful processes. And so the question, i suppose, for policy makers, is how do you find a way that you can manage immigration in a way that is not utterly transformative . Every Country Deals with it in a different way. But clearly, in each country, there are clearly different views now. You know, in some countries in eastern europe, they see at least their governments see immigration as a sort of threat to what they see as a sort of western, sometimes christian way of life. You certainly hear that from politicians in hungary and poland, and which you dont hear in other countries. You know, its not seen in that sort of particular prism. Its seen in a slightly different way. And will it always be from now on . I mean, globalwarming is not going to get better. Wars dont seem to be getting any better. Those are the kind of drivers for immigration, arent they . If you look at the numbers in europe, were getting older. I am. And were having fewer children, and so there will always be a need for younger people. But equally, as you say, Climate Change will, slowly but surely, unless its resisted and stopped, will continue to make more parts of the world less inhabitable. But if you think about it, the history of mankind is of moving peoples. From the year dot, minus, minus, people have been moving and migrating All Over The World and it is something the world has has had to deal with. The chair declares the house in recess, subject to the call of the chair. The daily workings of American Politics are in turmoil and the Us Government is worried it wont be able to fund all its many and varied programmes from health care to support for ukraine. The reason is that the speaker of the house of representatives, the republican Kevin Mccarthy, has been dismissed by his own side for cooperating with the white house, which is, of course, in democratic hands, in order to keep the country running. How long will this situation last and how damaging is it . I turned to the bbc� s North America correspondent, anthony zurcher. The first thing is there are systemic difficulties with the way American Politics works when you have divided government to get them to agree on anything. And as youve seen over the past few decades, the United States has become more and more kind of entrenched in these partisan divisions, which makes any kind of cooperation, any kind of bipartisanship so much more difficult, because what the politicians are answering to are constituents back home that dont want negotiation, they dont want compromise. Purity is more of a test for their political success rather than legislative accomplishments. Now, when you add into that the fact that the Republican Party has been moving much farther to the right and that more and more republican politicians are getting elected who really dont believe that government helps, that government works. And so theyre much less interested in Funding Government and want to fundamentally change how government operates and curtail government power. For them, not funding the federal government is a means to that end, as Starving The Beast is the saying you hear time and time again. Matt gaetz, who is one of the leaders of this band of right wing conservatives who helped unseat Kevin Mccarthy because he was compromising and working with democrats, he says that hes hearing from his constituents that theyre behind him ioo . That they want drastic action because a lot of republican voters, a lot of republican Rank And File members think the country is heading in a terribly wrong direction, that government has gotten too big, that if something isnt done very, very soon, that itll be too late to save the country. But Kevin Mccarthy, the former speaker, must have thought he could get away with it, otherwise he wouldnt have agreed to a deal. I think he realises that it could be long term more harmful to the republicans not to compromise, not to take steps to be seen to be Solving Problems then than not. The problem is, again, mccarthy, his practicality is not what a lot of republican hard liners want right now. Can i ask you the question, which i think a lot of people would love an answer to do you think that trump will be able to stand as president , and do you think that hell win . I think anything is possible. If anything over the past eight years has taught us, its that, you know, the politically unexpected can happen. And donald trump winning the presidency in 2016 was a shock to many. So him winning it again in 2024 is not beyond the realm of possibility. You know, these court cases, well have to see how they play out, but they havent damaged him as of yet. So i would say hes the prohibitive favourite to win the republican president ial nomination. Whether he can win the presidency, like i said, its certainly possible. I dont think hes done a lot to expand his base of support in the United States. Certainly nothing thats happened since he lost the presidency in 2020 suggests that he has won over the kind of suburban moderate voters that are necessary to win the presidency. But, you know, a year is a long time. Were still 13 months out from the president ial election. We have two candidates, likely candidates for each party who are either over 80 or approaching 80 years old. So Health Issues are certainly a concern. Obviously, legal issues for donald trump are a concern. There are some political issues surrounding joe biden that are going to be a question that could damage him. And then we dont know what the economy is going to look like in a year. We dont know whats going to happen with Foreign Policy in a year. But, you know, trump is kind of the chaos candidate. Hes the guy who could succeed if things are totally falling apart and the American Public are desperate to find something, someone who isjust a break from what we have now. I seem to see a lot of articles in european political weeklies and in newspapers saying joe biden should just step down. He shouldnt be a candidate for the next for the presidency next year. Is there any possibility or are theyjust sort of shouting into the wind . I think its more the latter. An incumbent president has a stranglehold on his party. Joe biden does here. Ifjoe biden wants the nomination, its going to be his. Its just thats the way the system is set up. And unless there is some sort of a Major Medical scare, he is going to get the president ial nomination if he wants it, and clearly he wants it. I mean, hes been working. You have to remember, joe biden has sought the white house from very early on in his political career 50 years ago, this was what he had been striving for his entire adult life. And, you know, three years ago, he finally got it. That is a hard thing to let go of. And i think he feels like he has a good record to run on. I think the American Public, american voters, notjust republicans, but democrats have very real concerns about his age. He does show signs of his age and the idea of having an 86 year old man serving the final year of his presidency, thats concerning for a lot of americans. And i think, you know, validly so. The Life Expectancy for a male in america is in the eighties. And according to the actuarial tables, theres a i2 chance thatjoe biden could die in the next four years. I mean, i2 isnt nothing. And that could create a crisis in domestic American Politics that i dont think any american wants and certainly even his democratic supporters are nervous about. A Bbc World Service investigation has revealed a massive and hugely damaging loan scam in india, which has brought ruin and sometimes even death to large numbers of mostly poor people who found themselves caught up in the toils of the loan sharks. Poonam agarwal, whos based in delhi for the bbc, was a member of the team which has uncovered the workings of this brutal scheme. The scam goes like this that you generally get messages on your, or sms, on the phone saying that you can get a loan starting from, say, 5,000 rupees to say 50,000 rupees. So you can get loan instantly just by sharing your government id proofs. So once you share that, all you need to do is to download this app. Now, when you download the app, the app asks for various permission, like access to your google, to your gallery, access to your smss, access to your contacts. Now, if you do not give the permission to all these access, you cannot download the app. Hence, you have to give it. Its a seven day loan that after seven days you have to pay back that 5,000 rupees. If you fail to pay the loan on the seventh day, then again they will say that now you have to pay 5,000 rupees with the interest. And the interest could be anything it could be exorbitant, which can be a big problem for any customer. Now, when you again fail, then the problem starts. The problem starts like they will start harassing you by making multiple calls in a day. Still, if you fail to pay the loan with the interest, then they will start calling your contacts. Still, if you do not pay the loan, then they, as in the documentary, well see that some of these loan apps, they have actually morphed the pictures of the customers, the clients onto pornographic images. And also we have seen in many cases they circulate all these kind of images and abusive whatsapp messages to all the contacts. So what leads to it is shame. Now the customer who has not been able to pay the loan, that poor customer is not only being, you know, burdened with a very high Interest Rate, but is also facing multiple calls from the recovery agents, from the loan app company call centers, as well as he or she is being embarrassed among his friends, relatives, colleagues. And presumably, the kind of people that need these relatively small loans are in real trouble anyway, financially. Youre absolutely right, because these are the people who are some of the biggest this scam actually peaked during the covid, which was 2020. And the scam actually came in india in 2019 and in 2020, as we know, that many people lost their jobs. There was huge financial crisis in many homes and because of which, even small amount of money was, you know, a big thing for people, so many people fell into this trap during that period. First suicide that happened on record, which was reported, was in 2020, early 2020. We have verified data and we have made a list its more than 60 people who have killed themselves in india. So whos behind all this . I mean, is it one individual, a group of individuals, a much wider group of crooks . No, its notjust one person behind it. The entire system is in, in a way, being handled by a large number of people. There is a section of people who are giving away the loan, which is through loan apps, and there is a section of people who are doing the recovery. And when we spoke to victims here, the first thing that they said that the mental torture that they went through, the mental pain that they went through was beyond anything. They said the money was money actually became secondary for them. Whats likely to be the outcome of this exposure youve carried out . I mean, can it be stopped . Will it be stopped . For this, a strict regulation should be in place. Firstly, what the government or the Reserve Bank Of India should do, they need to cap, put a cap on the Interest Rate that they can charge and there should be a proper check on all these call centres by the local police station. Otherwise, this will continue and it is affecting millions of indians. Poonam agarwal, from the bbc� s delhi bureau. And that brings our programme to an end for this week. Thanks very much for being with me and the unspun team. And until we meet again, goodbye. Hello. A big change in the feel of the weather this weekend. Its been unseasonably mild and that mild weather has brought quite a bit of rain during the day. On friday, it brought half a month of rain to places like Santon Downham but already, the changes were with us further north, and thats all courtesy of the Wind Direction. Now, that rain, having cleared away, has allowed this blast of north westerly winds to sweep southwards. Now, really tightly packed isobars mean weve got severe gales in some northern parts of scotland but its the Wind Direction coming down from the arctic that will affect all parts this weekend and make it feel much colder even colder because of the wind chill, which is bringing through wintry showers across the hills, notjust for scotland, perhaps the sperrin and antrim mountains and into Cumbria Eryri as well, snowdonia, so a much colder night. Some frost to hit across North East England and the glens of scotland. Enough wind to prevent a widespread frost or, indeed, any mist and fog problems, really, but this weekend starts colder and windy. The wind should ease down a bit by sunday but its certainly a feature of the weather as we go through the first part of saturday. Those showers coming through thick and fast, adding to the chill feel, and theyre around the Irish Sea Coast first thing but they will migrate inland, so nowhere exempt from getting a shower but always more prevalent in the north and west. But there will be heavy rumbles of thunder and some hail, as well as the wintriness over the hills and only ten to 13 or 14 in the south thats six to eight degrees below where they have been, particularly in the south this week. Now, the showers and the winds ease a little bit during sunday but they keep pestering northern and Western Areas but there will be a more widespread ground frost probably our coldest night of the autumn so far. In fact, this is the coldest blast of the autumn so far. But it does mean, again, a good deal of sunshine first thing. Mind you, at this time of year, there will be a few pockets of fog around which can take till mid morning to clear to watch out for if youre travelling. Showers or perhaps more cloud in the north and the west of scotland. Temperatures, though, a little lower than saturdays but with lighter winds and a bit more sunshine, fewer showers. I should imagine not feeling quite as chilly. And then later into next week or at the early part of next week again, weve got the chilly nights, the frosty and foggy mornings but temperatures do pick up later in the week as the unsettled weather returns. Theres more online. Good morning. Welcome to breakfast, with Charlie Stayt and naga munchetty. Our headlines today Civilians Flee Northern Gaza by car, on the back of trucks and on foot as israels 24 hour deadline to leave ahead of an expected ground offensive passes. As israeli families wait for news of relatives who have been taken hostage by hamas the un warns both sides to respect human life. Even was have rules. International humanitarian law and Human Rights Law must be respected and upheld. Civilians must be protected and also never used as shields. Following his accident on top gear, Freddie Flintoff reaches a multimillion pound settlement with the commercial arm of the bbc. Its make or break time on quarter finals weekend at the the rugby world cup. First up this afternoon its wales against argentina in marseille,
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