Transcripts For BBCNEWS World 20240703

A reminder of the breaking news this hour. Apologies for the departure of our camera. Israel has told the United Nations that more than a million palestinians must leave the Northern Gaza Strip further blasts have been heard overnight in gaza, as Israeli Forces aim to eradicate the Hamas Militant Group in the wake of saturdays attacks. This is the scene live in gaza where it has just gone 7 30 in the morning. The un said the order by the Israeli Military also applied to all of its staff and those sheltered in un facilities, including schools, Health Centres and clinics. An hamas official, quoted by the reuters newsagency, said that the Relocation Warning from israel was fa ke propaganda. That is the life seen over gaza as we entered the seventh day of this conflict. At other points we have seen fresh plumes of smoke over the area, indicating fresh rocket fire coming into the area. We have had heard so many humanitarian issues, shortage of supplies and hospitals. We will return to any breaking developments in that story over the next half an hour. Now to our top business story. A retreat from global free trade will put up prices for everyone, especially the worlds poorest. Thats the warning from the head of the World Trade Organisation Ngozi Okonjo Iweala whos been speaking exclusively to the bbc at the Imf World Bank meetings in marakkesh, morocco. She told our economics editor faisal islam that theres evidence world trade is fragmenting with countries increasingly trading with friends and restricting trade with rivals. For example, think of the us banning exports of advanced chips to china or europe planning to tax chinese electric cars. The wto has also halved its forecasts for global trade growth this year, with the israel gaza warjust the latest factor to weigh on the world economy. We cut our forecast down from 1. 7 and it will now be cut down to 0. 8 . We had already said risks were on the downside. When we made this earlier forecast downside. When we made this earlierforecast for the downside. When we made this earlier forecast for the it was down but is one percentage point. There are a number of factors, the continuing crisis in the world. Now we have the crisis in the middle east. There is the slowdown in growth in china. Also high Interest Rates that are continuing. We see weak demand across the board. In most sectors and geographies and that is why we cut the forecast. Cut the forecast. How much of this is actual cut the forecast. How much of this is actual policy . Cut the forecast. How much of this is actual policy . We cut the forecast. How much of this is actual policy . We are i this is actual policy . We are hearing from the west is idea of Rebuilding Supply Chains away from east asia and other elements of geopolitical fragmentation because of how much is here to stay and how much is here to stay and how much of a problem is that . There is more trade ongoing now within politically similar blocks than between blocks that are dissimilar. That is some indication. We also look at certain sectors and we begin to see some emerging signs of fragmentation. We hope this will be, not go too far because we have showed the cost of fragmentation in world trade would be very costly. At the wto we have already b know that from our work in our simulations we would lose five Percentage Points of global gdp in the long term. There would be Double Digit Welfare Losses for poor countries and emerging markets. � u, , markets. Because things will become more markets. Because things will become more expensive . I become more expensive . Absolutely. The world is predicated on free flowing trade based on rules. If you have fragmented trade, becomes more costly and more inefficient and poor countries lose out. Lets not over generalise to the point where we are trying to share it with ourselves and friends because it will be more costly in the longer run. I it will be more costly in the longer run longer run. I fear you have lost this longer run. I fear you have lost this argument longer run. I fear you have lost this argument with. Longer run. I fear you have| lost this argument with the longer run. I fear you have lost this argument with the Big G7 Western Nations already deciding they want their pledge and close to home. They cannot relyjust and close to home. They cannot rely just on and close to home. They cannot relyjust on china but some say they cannot rely on korea or taiwan. I they cannot rely on korea or taiwan. , � taiwan. I disagree. I dont think i have taiwan. I disagree. I dont think i have lost taiwan. I disagree. I dont think i have lost the taiwan. Idisagree. Idont think i have lost the argument. In certain sectors, yes, absolutely. The technology sector, semiconductors, those are just two sectors. Overall good trade is still happening 75 on the basis of wt0. I dont think we have quite lost the argument. The argument. Imagine semiconductors, the argument. Imagine semiconductors, lets i the argument. Imagine i semiconductors, lets talk electric vehicles. Key growth area for a net zero feature and europe saying china is flooding europe saying china is flooding europe with cheap ev and massive State Subsidies and looking at maybe putting tariffs, extra tariffs on them. What do you make of that . Lets ut it this what do you make of that . Lets put it this way what do you make of that . Lets put it this way. What what do you make of that . Lets put it this way. What we what do you make of that . Let� s put it this way. What we want to say is at the wto we want to stay away from policies that undermine competition. Policies that distort trade. That is the general thing of protection is policy. That is what i can say. Those have negative spillovers on other countries. We are not for that. That is the sum total, whatever you can do to spread the industry within your own geography or your own country without undermining the ability of others to compete, thatis ability of others to compete, that is what we stand for. There might be an argument that over use of domestic subsidies could be a reason for europe to protect itself from an influx, a flood of chinas electric vehicles . A flood of chinas electric vehicles . ,. , vehicles . Some cities are good, not all subsidies vehicles . Some cities are good, not all subsidies are vehicles . Some cities are good, not all subsidies are bad. Not all subsidies are bad. There is research and innovation to get new ideas they can help advance the world, yes. But it is the way you subsidies. Any subsidies that are trade distortionary, not for that. Lets get more on this, Michael Hewson is Chief Market Analyst at cmc markets. Thanks for being with us today. When you cast your mind back to the announcement by the us of those sanctions, Trade Limitations on china. Many people said they were not the strongest in the world. I wonder, what is your sense of it . Whether were at of overstating the impact of globalisation. Overstating the impact of ulobalisation. , globalisation. Good morning. I dontthink globalisation. Good morning. I dont think we globalisation. Good morning. I dont think we are. Globalisation. Good morning. I dont think we are. Just globalisation. Good morning. I dont think we are. Just now i dont think we are. Just now talking to the head of the wto saying she lost the argument, he is more or less right. That appears to be the direction. French shoring is an entirely sensible policy when you look at the world around you. We have already seen what relying on russia has got us with respect to Energy Prices. An Energy Prices is essentially one of the key factors that has been slowing down global growth. You look at oil prices and Natural Gas Prices over the course of the last three to six months and have gone up by 25 35 . Thank goodness for us shell, 13 Million Barrels a day of output that has helped mitigate some of that outward pressure and prices. And ultimately the world is becoming a much more dangerous place and key arteries, the suez canal could be at risk if this particular conflict escalates. It is perfectly sensible to harding supply chains. Countries are all been doing that was signed the cptpp just recently. That really is the way forward. Unless the geopolitical outlook starts to soft and a little soften a little. Soft and a little soften a little. ,. , , little. Unfortunately, time is a. Ainst little. Unfortunately, time is against us little. Unfortunately, time is against us so little. Unfortunately, time is against us so we little. Unfortunately, time is against us so we will little. Unfortunately, time is against us so we will have i little. Unfortunately, time isj against us so we will have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us. As the head of the wto was mentioning, economic problems in china are one of the factors weighing on global trade. And theres more evidence of those problems in the last hour or so. China has released trade data for september. Both imports and exports were down more than 6 on this time last year. That was a slightly smaller fall than last month and not as bad as expected. But a spokesman for chinas Customs Agency has told a News Conference that the countrys trade faces a complex and severe external environment. Well, separate figures just out also show the prices of goods coming out of chinas factories falling for the 12th month in a row. Dr vera yuen is a lecturer in economics at the University Of Hong Kong business school. What more can these figures tell us about the health thank you for being with us today. What do you read into these numbers . I today. What do you read into these numbers . Today. What do you read into these numbers . I actually think these numbers . I actually think the numbers these numbers . I actually think the numbers are these numbers . I actually think the numbers are buried these numbers . I actually think the numbers are buried in these numbers . I actually think the numbers are buried in the l the numbers are buried in the worst figure was injuly when it fell by 45 . In august, was about 8 9 . Now it is only it fell by [6 . In august, was about 8 9 . Now it is only 6 . This figure is year on year. Depreciating by 10 but this figure is denominated in us dollars. Actually, ithink figure is denominated in us dollars. Actually, i think its about to bottom out. It would not get worse and also trade is not get worse and also trade is not the weakest link of china. Considerfirst not the weakest link of china. Consider first the position not the weakest link of china. Considerfirst the position has helped and also you have heard the talks about decoupling and delisting, living without chinese products. Also the us has wasted Trade Tariffs on many chinese products. Now the rest a paper on data from jacksonville finding that actually chinese products find its way into the us by going through other countries. There are more investment in countries like vietnam from china. So chinese products will first go to vietnam for the final stage of processing and then go to the us. Instead of direct trade between us and china, there is more regional trade between china and the enemies, or china and South East Asia and then to the us. Therefore it actually does not affect china as much as you think. � affect china as much as you think. ~ ,. , , think. Are you suggesting thin. S think. Are you suggesting things are think. Are you suggesting things are on think. Are you suggesting things are on the think. Are you suggesting things are on the up think. Are you suggesting | things are on the up now . Think. Are you suggesting things are on the up now . No. It has things are on the up now . No. It has been things are on the up now . No. It has been on things are on the up now . No. It has been on the things are on the up now . Iiifk it has been on the bottoming out process. It is about the bottom and would not get worse. In terms of trade. In terms of trade. Simply know. Thank you in terms of trade. Simply know. Thank you for in terms of trade. Simply know. Thank you for that in terms of trade. Simply know. Thank you for that analysis. Thank you for that analysis. Thank you for that analysis. Thank you for that analysis. Thank you very much forjoining us today. To the us now, where Ford Motor Company said it is at the limit of what it can offer the United Auto Workers union. The comment comes after workers unexpectedly walked out of the carmaker� s biggest factory in louisville kentucky on thursday with Industrial Action against detroits big three carmakers now in its fourth week. Michelle fleury has the details from new york. A stark warning from a senior Board Official Board Official. They save currently cannot afford to improve the offer without damaging its future. ~. ,. , future. We are at the limit. Goina future. We are at the limit. Going further future. We are at the limit. Going further will future. We are at the limit. Going further will hurt future. We are at the limit. Going further will hurt our. Going further will hurt our ability to invest in the business like we need to invest. , , business like we need to invest. ,. , invest. His comments, day after the uaw unexpectedly invest. His comments, day after the uaw unexpectedly launchedj invest. His comments, day after i the uaw unexpectedly launched a strike at the kentucky truck park. The largest plant in the world for ford and its most profitable. World for ford and its most profitable profitable. We are quite surprised profitable. We are quite surprised at profitable. We are quite surprised at the profitable. We are quite. Surprised at the escalation. Profitable. We are quite surprised at the escalation. We have made an outstanding offer. Great wages, great benefits. We have been bargaining in good faith. In have been bargaining in good faith. , faith. In the past few days, ford had faith. In the past few days, ford had said faith. In the past few days, ford had said it faith. In the past few days, ford had said it had faith. In the past few days, ford had said it had been l ford had said it had been negotiating potential options for future battery plant workers. Electric vehicle battery plans have been a major point of contention for the union. Bargaining with the three major automakers. To france now, where disruption to transport and Public Services is expected after Labour Unions called for a mass walkout today over the soaring Cost Of Living. It will stir up recent memories of the national strikes and protests over Pension Reform that brought the country to a standstill earlier this year. Dr Renaud Foucart is Senior Lecturer at the Department Of Economics at Lancaster University Management School here in the uk. Im guessing you have a french accent. How big are you expecting fridays strike to be . I think both strikes are not going to be at the same level of destruction as we have seen with the Pension Reform. Authorities expect all around france 150,000 people. The main reason is this is a relatively vague demands in the strike, it is about Cost Of Living crisis, posterity, gender pay gap, that is a separate demonstration by gp. Overall, the french inaudible have been protected during the Cost Of Living crisis, but more than the uk about Energy Prices for instance. But than the uk about Energy Prices for instance. For instance. But still a big moment for instance. But still a big moment for for instance. But still a big moment for the for instance. But still a big moment for the union for instance. But still a big moment for the union because in three days there is a called social conference with the government, to discuss possible ways to soften the effect of Pension Reform so they want to show they are still a relevant force because that was what they have shown already doing they have shown already doing the pond, Pension Reform. They were able to organise mass demonstrations and are still people in france really concerned about social policy. That is all the time we have, im afraid. Thank you for joining us from Lancaster University Management School. Around the world and across the uk. This is bbc news. You really have to make a full of yourself. It does look ridiculous. There can be only one winner. And they will take part in a special fundraising show for Children In Need next month. For more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. Youre live with bbc news. A reminder of the breaking news this hour. Israel has told the United Nations that more than a million palestinians must leave the Northern Gaza Strip within the next 2a hours. Further blasts have been heard overnight in gaza, as Israeli Forces aim to eradicate the Hamas Militant Group in the wake of saturdays attacks. We were hoping to bring you live shots there from gaza but i am not sure if we have them with us right now. They were there, im told. Apologies for that. We will continue talking about the israel, Gaza Conflict and the impact it is having on the economy. The head of israels central bank has been holding talks with the Finance Minister to discuss measures to support the economy. The Bank Of Israel has pledged to use up to 30 billion of its Foreign Exchange reserves to prop up the value of the shekel which was already weak before saturdays hamas attacks because of ongoing Political Uncertainty. Israel launched an International Campaign to sell bonds this week to offset the expected costs of the war. Professor asher blass is a former Chief Economist at the Bank Of Israel, who now runs the Economic Research consulting group, based injerusalem. Thank you for being with us today, professorasher thank you for being with us today, Professor Asher Blass. A big focus has also been on the calling up of 300,000 reservists to fight for the Israeli Military. From an economic perspective, what impact do you foresee that having . It impact do you foresee that havinu . , , having . It obviously will cause some disruption. Having . It obviously will cause some disruption. That having . It obviously will cause some disruption. That being. Some disruption. That being said, a significant portion of them are university students, are in gap years between the army and work. And the key question is how long will this last, if were talking about a disruption of about one month or so, the long term effects will be marred. If it be a different story. Will be marred. If it be a different sto. ~. , different story. We mentioned ust a different story. We mentioned just a moment different story. We mentioned just a moment ago different story. We mentioned just a moment ago that different story. We mentioned just a moment ago that the i just a moment ago that the israeli currency was already weak� s before the developments of last weekend. That because of last weekend. That because of Political Uncertainty surrounding Benjamin Netanyahus government, but otherwise what sort of health was the israeli economy in beforehand . Was the israeli economy in beforehand . The economy is re beforehand . The economy is pretty decent beforehand . The economy is pretty decent shape. Beforehand . The economy is pretty decent shape. Israel l pretty decent shape. Israel came out of the corona crisis relatively well compared to many western economies. There is growth. That being said, the reforms or the legal revolution that has been discussed in the last few months, that has been disruptive but altogether the base, the Departure Point of the israeli economy is in pretty decent shape. The other thing to keep in mind, given back to your question as to the labour market, what often happens in events like this is that there is increased participation in the labour force on the part of groups and segments of the population that have not participated in the past and that could happen. The end result will be very dependent upon how this war ends, if it ends in a very positive result, the economic effects of the war itself will be of a long term negligible. On the other hand, if it does not, that would be an entirely different story. Different story. Give us interact. Different story. Give us interact, inside different story. Give us interact, inside of different story. Give us interact, inside of you | different story. Give us i interact, inside of you can as to what would be going through the minds of Companies Operating within israel . We know it has a thriving tech sector. What future therefore we are looking at if this is a protracted conflict . We are looking at if this is a protracted conflict . Oh, well, if it is a protracted protracted conflict . Oh, well, if it is a protracted conflict i if it is a protracted conflict it means israel would have to spend a lot more on Military Expenses and there could be continue disruptions in the labour force continue disruptions in the labourforce and continue disruptions in the labour force and there could be less of a willingness of Foreign Investors to invest in israel. On the other hand, if the war ends on a positive note and lets say it ends with relations with other countries in the arab world, and it could eventually have a positive long term effects. It is too early to say. Economists are good at talking about small changes, tectonic changes which could be happening here on the political scene are a lot more difficult to predict. Difficult to predict. Briefly, if ou difficult to predict. Briefly, if you can. Difficult to predict. Briefly, if you can, the difficult to predict. Briefly, if you can, the diaspora i difficult to predict. Briefly, i if you can, the Diaspora Bond which has been launched by the Israeli Government this week, are there any signs of significant uptake or is it too early to say . Significant uptake or is it too early to say . You are talking about the early to say . You are talking about the selling early to say . You are talking about the selling of early to say . You are talking about the selling of bonds . L about the selling of bonds . Correct, yes. First of all, the israeli debt situation, the death of the Israeli Government compared to the size of the gdp, is in relatively good shape compared to what could be observed in western countries. Debt the fact that israel has taken the correct economic steps over the last 20 years has that fact is placed israel in a position to be able to fund this kind of war which would not have been the case of the Economic Reforms of the last 20 25 years had not taken place. Last 2025 years had not taken lace. , ,. , last 2025 years had not taken lace. , a place. 0k, Professor Asher Blass place. 0k, professor asher itlass from place. 0k, Professor Asher Blass from the place. 0k, Professor Asher Blass from the economic i blass from the Economic Research and consulting group, thank you forjoining us on the line from jerusalem. Thank you forjoining us on the line from jerusalem. A recession in the United States is now notjust likely, but inevitable. Thats the verdict of billionaire rick caruso, the developer behind some of the countrys biggest Shopping Centres and one of americas wealthiest property investors. Ricks been talking to the bbc� s Aaron Heslehurst for this weeks Talking Business programme. He says the pace of Interest Rate rises by the Federal Reserve means the us economy will start going into reverse early next year. I will go big and bold on this. I will go big and bold on this. I dont think there is a way to avoid the recession. Ijust do not think there is. With the height of the Interest Rates that we have right now, and the fact that we still have a strong economy, we still have a consumer spending, the fed is going to have to continue to put more pressure and to your point, aaron, all of the indicators, the cause lag, and my fear as they have gone so big, so far, we have not felt the full effects. But what i am seeing of fellow chairmen, ceos of companies and executives, everybody is pulling back that i know of. And that is going to cause some level of a recession in my opinion. I do not think it will be big. I think it will be miner. And i think we will get through it but ijust do not see how were going to avoided unless the fed starts pivoting and dropping rates. But they are not going to drop rates until they see some level of recession and cost of goods actually going down. And you can hear more on that plus more views from the world of Business Byjoining Aaron Heslehurst for Talking Business weekly this weekend here on bbc news. Finally, to the uk where the royal mint has unveiled a whole set of eight new coins, from one pence to two pounds, to mark the reign of king charles iii. The coins will enter circulation by the end of the year, and celebrate the kings love of the natural world. The heads side, of course, bear the monarchs image. The tails side of every coin will feature the uks flora and fauna, including a dormouse, a red squirrel, an atlantic salmon, oak leaves and wild flowers. The director of the royal mint has told the bbc they have deliberately used large numbers on the coins to help children identify figures and learn to count. I think these coins, with a large number are appealing to children learning to counter the use of money, very easy for them to identify which coin they are looking at. But also they are looking at. But also the animals in flora and fauna, everything you see these kinds, will appeal to children and the general public and they are great Conversation Starters as well about conversation and also things that people dont usually see on coins. Also things that people dont usually see on coins. Thats it from me usually see on coins. Thats it from me. Stay usually see on coins. Thats it from me. Stay with usually see on coins. Thats it from me. Stay with us usually see on coins. Thats it from me. Stay with us now i usually see on coins. Thats it| from me. Stay with us now on bbc news. Hello. Well, so far this month, many parts of the country have been experiencing unseasonably warm weather but now the transition to something colder is upon us and before that happens, a lot of rain through the early hours across many parts of england and wales. The Colder Weather has already reached scotland and Northern Ireland. The colder winds are coming in from the north, so clearer spells here and colder in the morning, but across the bulk of england and wales its overcast, outbreaks of rain heavy at times. This is the Weather Front and, once it clears away, that Colder Weather will sweep in from the north. So still a very mild morning in the south, the mid teens. And then its difficult to summarise the weather through friday across england and wales because it will change quite a bit from heavy rain to sunny spells, perhaps some thunderstorms, gusty winds. Its about 50 miles an hour on the south coast. So really changeable picture on friday across england and wales. But scotland and Northern Ireland hear a different story, scattered clouds, a few showers, windy, cold winds in the north and temperatures around 12 degrees there in edinburgh. So once that Weather Front clears away friday night into saturday, it opens up the doors to those colder winds coming in from the north. Nothing particularly unusual for the time of the year. Its just that its going to be quite a shock to the system, especially for those of us that have been experiencing these high temperatures so far this month. So here it is saturday. The winds are coming in from the north now for a change rather than from the south. And these are the temperatures on saturday, 1a. So a degree maybe or so around the average, colder than average i think in aberdeen, around eight degrees celsius. And then saturday night into sunday, the winds will fall light in the centre of the country and with clear skies, that means cold weather, a touch of frost, i think even barely above freezing in rural spots in the south of the country. But with that and with an area of High Pressure building over the uk, its going to be fabulously sunny apart from some showers in the northwest of scotland, but below average temperatures i think across the board, whether youre in the north or the south, itll be around say 10, 10 to 13 degrees. And that High Pressure is with us monday and into tuesday. Were right in the middle of that high. That means light winds, perhaps a touch of frosts and murky, foggy mornings. But i think towards the end of the week, it looks as though things could turn a little more unsettled and once again, a little milder. Thats it for me. Bye bye. Good morning, welcome to breakfast with Naga Munchetty and charlie stayt. Our headlines today. Israel orders more than a Million People in the north of gaza to move to the south of the territory within 2a hours. The un warns the ultimatum will have devastating humanitarian consequences. The British Government is sending warships and aircraft to support israel. Downing street says the deployment will bolster security. A move to improve the safety of breakdown recovery workers. Theyll be allowed to use Red Flashing Lights to cut the number of roadside accidents. In sport, scotlands euro party is on hold. On a Frustating Night in spain, they slid to defeat but can still make up qualify for euro 2024 over the weekend