we begin in france today, where a third national lockdown looms large, but the french government is insisting it's doing everything possible to avert more restrictions that could be devastating for the economy. a year ago to the day, president macron appeared on television confirming the closure of schools and the stay—at—home order that led to the country's first lockdown. officials say the paris region may be forced to lock down soon, as patients with new covid—19 variants fill up hospitals�* intensive care wards, with special medical planes taking patients from the paris area to less—saturated regions over the weekend. france currently has a 6pm nationwide curfew in place with weekend lockdowns in two regions, but it is still seeing a rise in case numbers. joining me now is tomasz michalski, economics professor, hec paris. good to see you again. first, do you think a third nationwide lockdown is inevitable as macro unfortunately, the lockdown of some sorts might appear at this moment inevitable, it might not be national, as you mentioned. because some regions, like brittany, did not see such a high saturation level of the virus, but the paris region passed through all of the thresholds and this is the reason that we hear about, especially because it is responsible for a large part of the french gdp.— the french gdp. what impact will this have? _ the french gdp. what impact will this have? that - the french gdp. what impact will this have? that depends| the french gdp. what impact i will this have? that depends on what the authorities _ will this have? that depends on what the authorities are - will this have? that depends on what the authorities are going l what the authorities are going to bring about. one important thing is which sectors are going to be affected, for example, services, to what extent they will be shut down, whether they are going to be able to prove to be responsible for something like 40% of the gdp losses last year according to studies, how long it is going to last as well, and therefore, we expect it might be even more likely like the last lockdown that we had in november december, and at that stage, most of the sector is operated at 90% of capacity, far above what we experienced during the first lockdown. maw during the first lockdown. now the vaccination _ during the first lockdown. now the vaccination programme has been criticised in france, seen as too slow and prolonged, and now with suspension of the astrazeneca vaccine, what impact will that have an infection rates and therefore restrictions being lifted at some point?— restrictions being lifted at some point? restrictions being lifted at some oint? , some point? currently the third wave is driven _ some point? currently the third wave is driven by _ some point? currently the third wave is driven by the _ some point? currently the third wave is driven by the so-called| wave is driven by the so—called british variant but also the south african one and the brazilian one. currently the window of opportunity of containing the virus is closing quickly. the government counted very heavily on astrazeneca vaccine to speed up the vaccination process. simply put, the logistics at this very moment are there, but the doses, the supplier, is not, so it seems that by the end of may, early 10 million french may be vaccinated. astrazeneca is not going to be re—approved by the european medical agency today. by the european medical agency toda . ,, ~ , ., by the european medical agency toda . ,, ~ , today. she will keep an eye, thank yom _ today. she will keep an eye, thank you. economics - today. she will keep an eye, i thank you. economics professor at hec paris. let's take a look at financial markets and the familiar tale of a record—breaking monday for wall street is giving trade in asia today a boost. the oil price down about 0.5%. optimism about a global recovery is fueling demand for stocks across the board. investors are focused on the us federal reserve's two—day policy meeting, which will conclude on wednesday. they had another record—breaking session on wall street last night. the us central bank is expected to forecast the world's biggest economy will see rapid growth this year. stocks across the board on wall street rising in anticipation. so not just so notjust the tech stocks but utility companies also. let's discuss this yael selfin — chief economist at kpmg. good morning to you. your take on what the fed might have to say. on what the fed might have to sa . , . , ., ., say. generally, what we are expecting — say. generally, what we are expecting is _ say. generally, what we are expecting is for _ say. generally, what we are expecting is for a _ say. generally, what we are expecting is for a stronger l say. generally, what we are i expecting is for a stronger us recovery. the fed is going to talk a little bit about how this additional spending is going to impact the economy, but overall, we must bear in mind that these are still early daysin mind that these are still early days in terms of the recovery, therefore it is unlikely that any major central bank is going to make significant changes in policy at this stage.— policy at this stage. when do ou policy at this stage. when do you think. — policy at this stage. when do you think, there _ policy at this stage. when do you think, there is _ policy at this stage. when do you think, there is so - policy at this stage. when do you think, there is so much l you think, there is so much discussion in financial markets about when interest rates will be going up. when do you think that might be? it is be going up. when do you think that might be?— that might be? it is unlikely we will see _ that might be? it is unlikely we will see any _ that might be? it is unlikely we will see any interest - that might be? it is unlikely| we will see any interest rate rises in any of the major central banks for more than a year. in terms of the us, most expect something more around 2023. this is unlikely to change at the moment, because the fed has changed its policy as well and it is likely to be much more forgiving, if you like, for inflation in the shorter term, and in any case any inflationary pressure we are seeing at the moment would be more permanent of the type of inflation that central bankers are likely to worry about at this stage. just talk us through _ about at this stage. just talk us through your _ about at this stage. just talk us through your thoughts . about at this stage. just talk us through your thoughts on j about at this stage. just talk - us through your thoughts on the diverges going on. we have the us, the uk, pushing ahead with immunisation programmes, therefore possibly being able to open up economy sooner and seeing recovery faster and yet you have france and italy looking down, problems in other parts of europe. your thoughts on that. it parts of europe. your thoughts on that. , , , on that. it is very interesting because. _ on that. it is very interesting because. on _ on that. it is very interesting because, on the _ on that. it is very interesting because, on the one - on that. it is very interesting because, on the one hand, l on that. it is very interesting | because, on the one hand, it means countries like the uk are likely to be stronger but on the other hand, we are all part of one world, therefore the exports, part of those economies that are going to become stronger earlier are still likely to suffer.- still likely to suffer. also, it is quite _ still likely to suffer. also, it is quite critical, - still likely to suffer. also, it is quite critical, for- it is quite critical, for europe we are coming into the very busy tourism season and yet you are seeing key economies having to shut down again. economies having to shut down aaain. �* , ,., , economies having to shut down aaain. , , ., ., again. absolutely. that would mean a shift _ again. absolutely. that would mean a shift in _ again. absolutely. that would mean a shift in demand, - again. absolutely. that would mean a shift in demand, in i again. absolutely. that wouldl mean a shift in demand, in the uk you would expect more staycation, and that would boost the hospitality sector, even more potentially than last summer. ~ ., ., ., summer. we got to leave it there but — summer. we got to leave it there but good _ summer. we got to leave it there but good to _ summer. we got to leave it there but good to get - summer. we got to leave it there but good to get yourl there but good to get your analysis as ever. now let's focus on energy and attempts by governments and businesses to go green. in india, around 20 million two—wheelers are sold every year and a majority of them run on petrol. but now, rising fuel prices and pollution levels have been prompting many to switch gears to electric vehicles. as part of our special coverage of climate change arunoday mukharji sent this report. india is waging a constant battle against rising pollution levels — the toxic air leaving 1.7 million indians dead in 2019, as per a lancet report. 27—year—old software professional karthik balakrishnan says his generation can help fix this. he's been using an electric scooter for a little over two years now. unlike earlier electric scooters, this one is faster, futuristic, and karthik is loving it. he just wishes he could go for longer drives. when you leap on, you tend to always be conscious of how much range you have, because it is not very easy to simply top up at a petrol station and continue, so you have to plan your trips a little better. priced at around $1,500, karthik�*s scooter is one of the thousands being sold by ather energy. since its inception in 2013, the company has grown to 16 cities, and hopes to accelerate to a0 by the end of this year. besides installing charging points at the homes of each customer, ather is also putting them near supermarkets and cafes, aiming to have nearly 300 across the country by the year end. yes, our view always has been that infrastructure has to precede the product — infrastructure can't follow. it's a big enabler for consumers. it's a big mental barrier that can be taken down. even though companies can step up by building infrastructure, as the market grows, experts say the government must pitch in, as well. we also need the government to build a whole battery ecosystem. today, we are entirely import—dependent. we are trying to source our battery, components, motor — everything — largely china driven. right? and that also brings a lot of uncertainty in the supply chain. in its last budget announcement, the government said it would subsidise the purchase of one million electric two—wheelers to promote the use of electric vehicles. that's an incentive for more players to enter the market. india's electric vehicle market is expected to be around $7 billion in the next four years, primarily driven by two— and three—wheelers. now electric vehicles might be a little more expensive, but experts say in the longer it is cheaper to maintain than a petrol or diesel vehicle, and in a price sensitive market like india, if there is more competition, it will keep the prices low, which could make all the difference in the long run. arunoday mukharji, bbc news, delhi. stay with us on bbc news, still to come... if you love cinema, los angeles is the place to be because movie theatres there are starting to reopen. today we have closed the book on apartheid and that chapter... cheering and applause more than 3,000 subway passengers were affected. nausea, bleeding, headaches and a dimming of vision. all of this caused by an apparently organised attack. the trophy itself was on the pedestal in the middle of the cabinet here. this was an international trophy and we understand now that the search for it has become an international search. above all, this was a triumph for the christian democrats. of the west, offering i reunification as quickly as possible, and that's. what the voters wanted. this is bbc world news. the latest headlines... the world health organisation urges countries to keep using the astrazeneca coronavirus vaccine — as a growing list of european nations suspend injections. the influential sister of north korea's leader says the us must avoid causing a stink if it wants peace — as america's top diplomat heads to the region. news corp has reached a three—year deal to provide facebook users access to news in australia. this follows facebook�*s much— criticised move to block news sites on its platforms in australia, in response to legislation requiring them to pay news providers. let's go to our australia correspondent shaimaa khalil. this was quite a hooha at the time and it seemed like a deal has been done.— time and it seemed like a deal has been done. yes, a big deal has been done. yes, a big deal has been _ has been done. yes, a big deal has been done, _ has been done. yes, a big deal has been done, as _ has been done. yes, a big deal has been done, as well. - has been done. yes, a big deal has been done, as well. this i has been done. yes, a big deal has been done, as well. this isj has been done, as well. this is huge for a couple of reasons, one, just the nature of those smack companies, this is the tech and social media giant facebook making a deal to pay news corp, the report murdoch empire here in australia, for three years, and we don't know the value of the contract, but news corp holds or controls almost 70% of the newspaper circulation here in the country, owning the likes of the australian, the daily telegraph, sky news australia, so they have a huge chunk of the market, so even though we don't have the exact numbers, it is going to be a significant amount. there are other reasons why it is big, because it comes off the back of that huge fallout that happened when facebook blocked news here in australia last month, because of the dispute about the legislation that now passed through parliament, the news media bargaining code, which forces tech giants like facebook and google to pay for news content on their platforms. at the time, facebook was against it. they spoke against it time and again. they made threats and came good on that threat. but because of that backlash, they went back on that, restored news in australia and agreed to come into negotiations with media companies and we are seeing the first big one now. just briefly, news corp has massive power when it comes to these kind of negotiations, but what about the smaller more local media companies, the ones that are facing bankruptcy and could be doing with a financial boost? ., . . boost? you have hit the nail riaht on boost? you have hit the nail right on the _ boost? you have hit the nail right on the head. _ boost? you have hit the nail right on the head. any - boost? you have hit the nail right on the head. any deal| right on the head. any deal that news corp makes is going to be huge, especially with facebook, and remember that news corp lobbied heavily for this law to be passed in parliament, because they know that money could be made and they are making that big money now. i think that for this law to do what it is there to do, it is going to be how negotiations are going to run with the smaller companies, the smaller titles, local newspapers, that as you say have suffered greatly from the loss of income or revenue income. we don't know the details of that because remember, facebook said this is going to be about value exchange, what value facebook! take a publication so the devil will be in the detail for the smaller titles and what kind of payments they get from facebook.— payments they get from facebook. ., ~ ,, ., ., facebook. thank you, shaima kaliil in sydney. _ let's get some of the day's other news. we're keeping an eye on shares of chinese tech giant tencent — up more than 1% in early hong kong trade. the company had lost more than $62 billion in market value in the last two days of asia trading, as investors fear the company could be the next one targeted by chinese regulators in a clampdown on big tech. in less than half an hour, german car—maker volkswagen will reveal its annual results. the vehicle maker was hit by a diesel—emission scandal in 2019 and faces massive lawsuits from owners in germany and across the world. vw has said its 2020 sales will be better than expected because sales in china have recovered quicker than originally thought. wall street has had a good session again. buoyed byjoe biden's nearly $2 trillion covid relief bill. the rally comes as various administration officials hit the road to sell the massive package to the american public. our north america business correspondent michelle fleury in new york has the details. the stimulus plan is fuelling optimism on wall street about the economic reopening from the pandemic, and to ensure its spending of his nearly $2 trillion relief plan goes smoothly, joe biden turned to a familiar face will help. good afternoon. president biden announced jean sperling, a former economic adviser under both the clinton and obama administrations, to oversee his covid relief plan. 100 million shots in people's arms will have been completed within the next ten days, and 100 million cheques in people's pockets in the next 100 days. to sell key components of the american rescue plan top official spread out across the country, vice president kamala harris started in las vegas with a visit to a restaurant, at which she stressed the importance of getting vaccinated. transportation secretary highlighted the vaccine supply chains at the ups facility in maryland. indie ups facility in maryland. we wanted to — ups facility in maryland. we wanted to be _ ups facility in maryland. - wanted to be sure to draw attention to the critically important work that goes on, before we are able even to get a shot. ~ ., , before we are able even to get ashot. ~ ., , a shot. led white house says that tuesday's _ a shot. led white house says that tuesday's focus - a shot. led white house says that tuesday's focus will - a shot. led white house says that tuesday's focus will be l that tuesday's focus will be our small businesses as they continue to promote the benefits of the covid reef plan and wall street agrees, goldman sachs said the relief plan will provide a bigger boost the economy than previously expected, predicting it will 8% this year. —— covid relief plan. let's stay in the united states. after nearly a year of closures during pandemic, los angeles' cinemas have begun opening their doors. amc theatres, the world's largest cinema chain, said two of its biggest los angeles—area locations — amc burbank 16 and amc century city 15 — was due to open for business monday afternoon la time. amc reported last week it lost $4.6 billion in 2020 due to the pandemic. but what could this reopening mean for movie releases and the industry? major studios have been delaying their blockbusters and one of the reasons is the two biggest movie markets in the us — new york city and los angeles — have been closed. but new york city is reopening at reduced capacity and now la is too — so will we see the return of big releases? joining me now is patrick corcoran, vice president of the national association of theater owners. welcome to the programme. cinema reopening their doors is extremely important for the industry. just put it in context for us.- industry. just put it in context for us. ~ , ., context for us. los angeles and new york _ context for us. los angeles and new york together _ context for us. los angeles and new york together account - context for us. los angeles and new york together account for l new york together account for about 14—15% of the box office market in the united states. it is key that we have our full market open in the us. many theatres are local. they are in individual markets. but the actual market for movie theatres is a national one and to some degree an international one. it to some degree an international one. ., , , , ,, to some degree an international one. .,, ,, one. it will not be business as usual. there _ one. it will not be business as usual. there will _ one. it will not be business as usual. there will have - one. it will not be business as usual. there will have to - one. it will not be business as usual. there will have to be . usual. there will have to be social distancing and restrictions on numbers. so, will cinema still be able to make money they desperately need to make back? hat make money they desperately need to make back?— make money they desperately need to make back? not at the initial capacities. _ need to make back? not at the initial capacities. but _ need to make back? not at the initial capacities. but the - initial capacities. but the opening will give us a chance to reintroduce ourselves to customers, to show them that we are operating safely and responsibly, and that we have health and safety protocol is called cinema safe, and across the industry, and it will eventually allow the studios to have that confidence that audiences are coming back, and then they can start releasing their larger movies that they have held back, movies that cannot be profitable until we cannot be profitable until we can be at about 50% capacity but more businesses have stepped up. but more businesses have stepped up-_ but more businesses have ste-edu-. �* ~ ., stepped up. amci mentioned, massive companies _ stepped up. amci mentioned, massive companies like - stepped up. amci mentioned, massive companies like that'll| massive companies like that'll be ok, but what about the smaller cinema businesses as a matter presumably they would need financial help, wouldn't they? need financial help, wouldn't the ? ~ ., , need financial help, wouldn't the? ., , need financial help, wouldn't the ? . ., , ., , ,, ., they? we have been lobbying all ear lona they? we have been lobbying all year long federal _ they? we have been lobbying all year long federal government, l year long federal government, state government, and we had a real success in december with an act that allowed operators of shuttered venues, live venues, music venues, movie theatres, to receive grants of “p theatres, to receive grants of up to $10 million based on revenue loss in 2020. that will be an enormous lifeline for the vast majority of theatre companies.— vast majority of theatre companies. vast majority of theatre comanies. ., ., , , companies. do you have a sense ofthe companies. do you have a sense of the appetite _ companies. do you have a sense of the appetite for _ companies. do you have a sense of the appetite for people - companies. do you have a sense of the appetite for people to - of the appetite for people to come? are they scared about coming and sitting next to strangers on this in a cinema? what is the feeling out there? everyone is very much aware of what the pandemic numbers are alike and from the beginning of january, the first week in january, the first week in january, we have seen case numbers come down, death numbers come down, death numbers come down and vaccine numbers come down and vaccine numbers go up, and those things tied together, along with market starting to open up and people getting used to going out again are all very positive things, and one of the greatest drivers of peoples comfort in movie theatres is a big movie opening, that is a signal to them that it is safe to come back. . . ., them that it is safe to come back. ., x' ., ., them that it is safe to come back. ., ., ., ,, them that it is safe to come back. ., ., .,~ ., back. patrick, good to talk to ou. back. patrick, good to talk to you- thank — back. patrick, good to talk to you. thank you _ back. patrick, good to talk to you. thank you for _ back. patrick, good to talk to you. thank you for being - back. patrick, good to talk to you. thank you for being on | back. patrick, good to talk to i you. thank you for being on the programme. in the meantime the oil industry has had a very challenging year due to the pandemic. the uk's oil and gas sector is facing a period of extreme this year's business outlook report from oil & gas uk says £3 billion in lost investment during the pandemic could now threaten a green recovery. joining me now is deirdre michie — chief executive of oil and gas uk. good to have you on the programme. talk us through what this means in the uk for the oil and gas industry. this this means in the uk for the oil and gas industry.- oil and gas industry. as you said it is — oil and gas industry. as you said it is a _ oil and gas industry. as you said it is a really _ oil and gas industry. as you | said it is a really challenging time. like every other sector. we talk about being hit by the triple whammy of covid and the dramatic drop in oil and gas prices, and as you have said we have seen investment lost, about 3 billion in the last year, as we saw activity delayed and projects pushed back or deferred or cancelled. so, the result has been we have seen significantjob losses, seen significant job losses, and seen significantjob losses, and we expect that to continue, and we expect that to continue, and we expect that to continue, and we also see a big impression on the supply chain because we werejust impression on the supply chain because we were just coming out of a previous downturn when this one came up very quickly and hit us with such severe impact, so it has been really challenging. the one thing i would point out, the one positive thing, is as a sector, we do keep production going. we have reduced personnel levels off your back we kept operations going 365 days a year, to help keep homes heated, help hospitals be powered, keep the lights on, so that was one positive against what has been and continues to be a really difficult time. i’m be a really difficult time. i'm sor to be a really difficult time. i'm sorry to say. _ be a really difficult time. i'm sorry to say, we _ be a really difficult time. i'm sorry to say, we have - be a really difficult time. i'm sorry to say, we have got 30 seconds left on this programme, so i will not ask you another question because i would have to rudely interrupt about thank you for getting up so early to talk to us about the challenges facing the uk oil and gas sector. that report out today as i have mentioned. that brings the programme to a close. thank you for your company today. if you watching is on bbc one in the uk you can rejoin on bbc breakfast in five minutes. here on bbc news, i will be back. see you soon. hello there. in comparison to this time last week, it is a much quieter weather story to tell. but i suspect we will be chasing cloud amounts around over the next few days, just like we had on monday. in cornwall, it was a beautiful day with blue sky and sunshine, similar story for northern ireland. but further north and west, cloud gathered as we went through the day, rather threatening looking skies, indication of what's to come. yes, we have some weather fronts bringing some rain into the far northwest. high—pressure is trying to build in from the southwest, but some of this rain will be heavy through the night. isobars squeezing together as well, strengthening winds particularly in the far north of scotland. now, the rain will sink its way south and east, a lot of cloud across the country, so a relatively mild night for many. so as we start off tuesday, there will still be some heavy rain to come, particularly across scotland accompanied by some strong gusty winds from the northwest. widely, we could see gusts in excess of 30 mph first thing, but in the far north, 40—16 mph not out of the question. that strong wind will help push the rain south and east as we go through the day, quite a clearance, the winds will fall light, the sunshine will come through. the only exception, perhaps, across east anglia, essex and kent, it may well stay cloudy for much of the day. top temperatures though through the afternoon, generally around 10—15 celsius — not bad. now, high pressure will anchor itself across northern ireland. a little bit more of a breeze always around the periphery of the high, and that is going to continue to drag in cloud amounts, hence the reason that we will be chasing cloud from time to time. so on wednesday, there will be quite cloudy skies with the odd light shower into the far north and some cloud coming in off the north sea, so sheltered western parts of england and wales seeing the best of the sunshine potentially. now, as we move into the end of the week, the high pressure just moves a little bit further west again, and that allows more of a northeasterly flow, a cooler source, particularly across east anglia and southeast england. so what that will do is it potentially breaks up the cloud to allow more sunshine to come through, but it means that it might feel just that little bit cooler the further south and east you are by the end of the week. further west, it stays largely dry, but there is always the risk of a little more cloud. that's it, take care. good morning. welcome to breakfast with dan walker and louise minchin. our headlines today... the eu's biggest nationsjoin the list of countries suspending use of the oxford—astrazeneca vaccine. but the jab is safe, according to the world health organisation and british experts. the message for now is the vaccine is safe and effective. it has saved thousands and thousands of elderly and vulnerable people's lives. hundreds more gather to remember sarah everard, as downing street unveils new measures to protect women. exactly a year ago today, the curtain came down on