Hello. Welcome to dateline london, im carrie gracie. This week borisjohnsons promise that he would do or die to deliver brexit by october the 31st has become do or die in a ditch. Despite a full house of parliamentary defeats, nothing else changed in his message stop either doing or dying is still defiantly scheduled for october the 31st, so our question today is the british Prime Minister digging himself a ditch in which to die or demonstrating exactly the determination that will do in the end . My guests, italian writer and filmmaker annalisa piras. Iain martin of the times. Marc roche from le point newspaper. And Stephanie Baker of bloomberg news. Thanks, all, for coming in. The palace of westminster has seen some extraordinary political dramas over the past 1,000 years, but there current one is right up there. In fact, the last time a british Prime Minister lost his first vote in the house of commons was 1783, and thats not the only thing that went wrong for Boris Johnson last week. So, lets do a quick recap. On monday, downing street warned tory mps that if theyjoined an attempt to push through a bill seeking to block a no deal brexit, they would be expelled from the parliamentary party, and if the blocking attempts succeeded, the Prime Minister would call for a general election. On tuesday, 21 tories defied those threats and were promptly thrown out. On wednesday, the house of commons past the offending blocking bill and rejected the Prime Ministers attempt to call a snap election. On thursday, johnsons own brother quit his government. And on friday, the house of lords passed the bill and opposition parties vowed again to thwart a snap election. So, by this time the Prime Minister himself was at the other end of the country tussling with another unbiddable beast, an Aberdeen Angus bull, and thats the barest plot outline of a rich drama with a forecast of shakespearean characters played by themselves. So, enoughfrom me, lets hear from the guests. Iain, was the Aberdeen Angus moment the worst moment of the week . What would you say happened here . There were so many worst moments of the day for borisjohnson. It is difficult to choose. I think, of it all, the worst moment. I think he had to do it, expel those 21, it was the vision of people like Nicholas Soames who has been a conservative mp for a very long time, a member of the churchill family, and previous chancellors and ministers actually being confronted and thrown out of the conservative party. That is something which he may be prepared to do but borisjohnson will not have liked doing that. He lives to be loved and if not loved, liked. As someone who spends a lot of time in the house of commons in the gallery this week, i have never seen. This is different from the country. It is a different question. I have never seen a Prime Minister that the house of commons likes less. This house of commons really hates him. It is really visceral. And that will be a shock to him, because thats not how he sees himself or. But hes now in a situation that reminds me of churchill saying, of suez, when he was asked about edens conduct during the suez crisis, that he would have personally never have started the operation but once he had begun it he would have never dared stop. So hes chosen his course of action. He has to dig in, try and fight back and appeal over the heads of parliament to pro brexit voters, of which there are still many. Stephanie. Well come back to that in a moment. You made a distinction between parliament and the country there. Do you think this is a storm in a parliamentary tea cup for borisjohnson or is this a cattle stampede in which he will be badly trampled . I thought his worst moments where two others. One was his brother joe johnson stepping down as universities minister and announcing his resignation as an mp. I think the country as a whole had lost the plot with all these parliamentary intrigues. It is very hard for most people to follow. It is hard for me to follow and i follow this stuff. I think that story, your own brother deciding he cannot work with you, that is a story that everyone can fully understand. Its simple, its straightforward. I think the second moment that was quite bad for him was when he was caught on television, bbc, being shouted down on the streets of yorkshire with someone saying, why are you in morley . Why arent you in brussels negotiating brexit . That cuts through. The country can get that. They understand. Its a basic. The country is in crisis and hes campaigning in yorkshire. What is he doing . I do think those sorts of moments are far more significant than parliamentary intrigue. When is a new election . Is it before or after the 315t . I think people. The election will happen and people will vote based on their gut instincts and the ins and outs we have seen this week will have been forgotten at that point. Marc, your view. The week that was. Well, the week that was. The strategy was right from his point of view, which was to assert leadership. The country wants a strong leader after cameron and may. They wanted Something Like blair or thatcher, quite strong leading. He had behind him 52 of the country minimum because the leavers, but he has also some soft remainer who want to get over with brexit. And the purging the moderate, although it was terribly counter productive in terms of television, was the right thing to do in order to have a brexit full team to face brussels. The problem is why i think is the worst moment, when it was revealed that Dominic Cummings said. The chief of staff. Yes, the chief of staff of borisjohnson, he said we have no plans for brussels. We will never go there. It is a shambles. And brussels said, where are the british . Which speaks to stephanies point about being on the streets of yorkshire rather than brussels. Absolutely. The mistake he made was not to pursue a dual tactic, doing what he has to do to assertive leadership, unpleasant as it is, but the other, start negotiating with brussels. He says he is working hard, things are positive. It will use his powers of persuasion, he has a few weeks to go. Lets not forget that Boris Johnson is the one who actually invented fake news about europe. He was dismissed by the times for falsifying a quote. His speciality is lying about europe, and in brussels they know it. The question is when the British Public will realise. Most of the things borisjohnson has been saying about whats happening in europe and what hes doing about europe are false. Theres no chance europe will be terrified by his no deal threat. This has been very, very clear. He keeps feeding lies to the British Public, so there should be a moment in which this should be exposed. And its going to happen soon. Michel barnier said very clearly that there is no new attempt to find a new deal. That the negotiations are paralysed. Nothing is apparently happening. Likely its not going to happen. Lets put that back to iain for a moment. I dont that is entirely fair. Barnier would say that considering its his role and its his deal. There is a lot happening behind the scenes was not the particular thing to focus on early next week is whats happening with ireland. And ireland. The Irish Government had a very difficult Cabinet Meeting this week. Very worried about no deal. Theres a lot of diplomacy between london and dublin as the attempt to try and find a way through. The Irish Government are very nervous about this because they want to negotiate through brussels, for obvious reasons. Im not predicting theres going to be a settlement to the irish border question, but people are trying. Whether or not its real and genuine and Dominic Cummings and boris really want a deal, i do think boris does want a deal. There is a glimmer there. Michael gove met Simon Coveney this week. One of the most interesting things which happened this week which was underreported because i was so much other craziness going on was that boris moved on ireland by saying that he could accept an all Irish Economy on agriculture and food. It was a sort of crazy story that may end up in the next couple of weeks if there is some sort of compromise based around the irish border, that might be the beginning of it. Well see. But brussels will refuse it. The problem for brussels is the control of sanitary and the integrity of the single market. They dont want to import mad cow disease again. This idea of ireland negotiating with the brits, it is not reliable. But the logic ofjohnsons shift there was that they cant say this to the dup and they may end up. He has jettisoned other people he has relied on for votes. It may be that the british end up in a situation which is renaming checks in the irish sea as Something Else with the help of brussels. They might. Im not saying theres definitely going to be a deal, im just challenging the idea that there is absolutely nothing going on. There is clearly something. Stephanie, economics, your bag, what do you think . Iagree. I thinkjohnsons proposal about this Common Agricultural policy has been met with lukewarm reception in brussels. They want control over that border and that proposal doesnt adhere to that. Which border . The border between Northern Ireland and ireland. That is the eu border, and by agreeing to that, that means they do not have full control over that border because the. Still, agriculture is 80 of the trade over that border but it does threaten the single market. I think what is more important is that there have been proposals floated to brussels but they are backtracking on what has been agreed by theresa may on a number of issues, including a level Playing Field and labour rights. Boris wants to go for a canada free trade deal rather than what is along the lines of what theresa may wanted. This is a step backwards rather than a step forwards and it is unclear that the eu would go for it. I also think he has not proposed any other alternatives. There are proposals that have been floated by outside experts that many people thought could work. For instance, making it illegal to export goods that dont need those standards, you know, Northern Irish and eu standards, from those countries, making it illegal. But that proposal would require trust, and there is very little trust right now. Theres also very little trust on the british side. So the reason that the british have not done as described and put a full fleshed out set of proposals, its very difficult, is that david frost, the Prime Ministers key negotiator, his view, and i think this is correct, is that if the british take that approach it will be rejected out of hands for reasons we understand. The phrase that has been used by the british in brussels is, any solution which finds a way through and avoids a no deal has to be a joint endeavour. And that would take macron and merkel essentially cracking heads and saying, look, is there something that can be done on the irish border . Because the alternative is something, as the irish cabinet discussed this week, it is extremely messy which would be much better to avoid in ireland and is very bad for britain as well. But is there some grand play by macron and merkel and the commission in the next few weeks . If there. If there is a a tweak to the irish backstop, will it get through parliament . That is not clear. Another interesting thing that happened this week is borisjohnson indicated that he will take as robust a position with the spartans who are the hardline brexiteers in the conservative party, as he took with the tory remainers who he effectively expelled. Theres some confusion about that. But he does seem to be of a mind that if he gets a deal, which i do think is his favoured option, if he gets some sort of compromise deal, he will attempt to bring it back to the commons and will say to mp5, you keep saying youll do anything to avoid no deal. Heres a deal. Avoid no deal. Annalisa, are you convinced by any of that . I dont believe that there is any likelihood that that is going to happen, frankly. I think there are a lot of issues, the trust has been lost. There is the issue that the irish border is a real, real problem that cannot be sorted with some kind of fudge about agriculture and beef products. I mean, theres so much more there. So, theres no bridge building to be done in your view, theres only ditch digging . I disagree. I think so, because, again, the european union, the one thing, the one indication they gave is if you keep those red lines, and borisjohnson doesnt want to move the red lines, the only deal on the table is the Withdrawal Agreement of theresa may. So, there is very, very little margin for negotiations unless Boris Johnson drops some of the red lines. So, of course, thats the position of labour because i think that labour is moving towards saying, we could negotiate a deal that maybe keeps us in the customs union. And then vote against it in the referendum, they said. Sorry, i disagree. Well come back to that in a moment. Marc, one word and then were going to move ahead. Yes. The landscape is changing in europe. A new commission, barnier is out. You will have a weakened Angela Merkel and a macron who is thinking at his re election and the agenda. So, there is an opportunity there. Just before we move to look at what on earth is going to happen in the drama next week in this box set, the serious question of which i missed from my list of events of the week thats just been what on earth did borisjohnson say to the queen at dinner on friday night, and what did she say to him . That must have been an extraordinary occasion at balmoral. Ian, would you like to take that first . Yeah, i mean, she is very politically engaged. I mean, she listens a lot. There is actually footage, for example, of her talking to Ronald Reagan and you see she has very, quite punchy views, but the form will be, i think, that she will have, with a raised eyebrow, have simply asked him how his week went and to try and explain what on earth is going on, and i would pay good money to have heard his response. Yeah. Any takers . I think she will be quite happy because i believe i might be wrong, no one knows what she thinks that shes pro brexit, because her age, because the education, non university education, because her countryside lifestyle, links with the aristocracy. So, she would be quite at ease with Boris Johnson. Youre kind of looking at a demographic argument to define her politics . Yes, because shes old, 93 years old. The reason she is pro brexit, and those are her inclinations, youre absolutely right. How do you know . The reason for that is that if you go right back to the early 19705, shes now been through how many Prime Ministers well, her first Prime Minister was Winston Churchill it goes that far back lots of politicians assured her in the early 19705 that going into the european to the eec would solve the countrys problems and wouldnt be a threat to sovereignty and that voters would not be troubled by this at all, and she is someone with a very long memory, who now sees the result of what happened, which was deeper immersion in the european union, which it turns out the british voters didnt want. So, she turned out to be right, i think. Regardless of her views on brexit, and i dont think we can really know what she thinks about brexit, i think she cares deeply about the International Reputation of great britain. Right now, from the outside, people are looking at this country, going, what is going on . Im getting messages from friends in the us, saying, wow, crazy week what is happening . Brits are known internationally as a sensible, clever, and this is undermining that reputation, which she deeply, deeply cares about. An american friend of mine said, you see, this is fantastically entertaining because we cant get a third series of fawlty towers. This is the next best thing and what, stephanie, just before we leave, the thought of those americans and those outsiders, just to internationalise the kind of perspective for a moment what is it that they find so baffling . What is the is it the purge that ian mentioned at the beginning . Is it the fact that the commons hates him . Is it the lying down on the benches of parliament by the leader of the house . Is it the girls blouse and the kind of. That went viral, and i think its the antics in the house of commons which looks very entertaining to an american audience because its so foreign. John bercow in particular looks like the harsh schoolmaster. Ijust think most of the time i think in the us theyre not paying attention. I was in the us for three weeks this the summer. It got very little coverage. I think this week it finally did get coverage because borisjohnson has been compared to donald trump and because it was such a disastrous week and the antics in parliament were so comical. Well, lets look at the antics or otherwise of the week ahead. We are going to get a vote again probably on monday on whether there will be a snap election and we are probably going to get the proroguing of parliament somewhere between monday and thursday in the week ahead, and i suppose everyone in politics in the uk needs to think about the electoral arithmetic. Annalisa, take us there. What are the calculations they need to consider on voting for or against a snap election . Well, i think that the main difficulty here is establishing the date, because borisjohnson is trying to get a vote before the 17th of october, which is the date of the European Council summit, and i guess that his calculation is that if he can get it before, he will still present himself to the voters as the guy who is taking on brussels, and so hes a hero. If he goes after, he will have been forced to actually ask for. I mean, i suppose if he was here, he would say, id like it before so i can go to brussels and say i have the majority of the British Public behind me. Of course, of course, but this is not going to happen because, of course, the opposition is not going to allow him to do that, so its going to happen afterwards, and i guess that that nobody nobody in the uk really can predict how the elections could go, but one important fact that has been quoted as one of the reasons for delaying anticipating the vote, is the youth vote, because there is one million young people that didnt vote in 2016 that are supposed to be able to vote, and apparently, borisjohnson wants an early date because they wont have the time to register in time. But that massive percentage of the british voters could really, really make a difference. Except the young dont vote and the old go to vote, so i dont think weve seen it in scotland. But they are mobilising. Yeah, but the age was 16 in scotland, and they lost. What i think is his main strength, Boris Johnson, is labour. Jeremy corbyn hasnt really taken too much profit from all the mess. The government, the opposition is divided between leavers the labour party and reminders. 40 of labour voted to leave. And so, as ian says, theyre in a difficult position . Of currently saying theyre going to negotiate a deal and then theyre going to have a referendum in which they urge people to vote against it. Yeah, absolutely. And the referendum, i believe, will be the same result, even more leave than the one. No, no, no. Absolutely. No, no, no, 82 of the Younger Voters are against leaving. But they dont vote . And they will vote, they are mobilising. No, no, no. They are mobilising. Theres another problem with the referendum, which is that if it happens, and i dont think it will, because it doesnt resolve anything, my side, the side that voted to leave, will go into the campaign saying that we wont accept the result if we lose. And well simply say, well, we learnt this from the first referendum when peoples vote didnt. You didnt accept that result, were not accepting this if we lose. Lets make it best of three. Whats most likely . The big difference is that people know now things that they didnt know then. I know all sorts of things about the eu i didnt know then, and im even more convinced that i want to leave it. However. I want to hear the end of the sentence whats more likely . Whats more likely is that the conservative party is now faced with, really, an existential choice, because if you look at the polling, there is a very strong brexit vote, but it is divided. So, its divided between the conservatives who are polling stuck somewhere between 29 points this morning, 33 the other day, and the brexit party, run by nigel farage, populist leader, who is supposed to have gone away by now, and he hasnt he polled 17 this morning. So, im not saying you can add those two numbers together and you get an automatic majority for brexit in the election when it happens, and there are all sort of complexities is about when the election is. However, the tories are now really having to confront the choice. Do they allow the brexit vote to be split or do they come to some sort of arrangement with nigel farage and the brexit party . Which is what hes urging. Thats what nigel farage definitely wants. Lots of tories are reluctant to do that and a lot of. Why . Because of tories have always had a sort of fear of the populist right. Its the mainstream conservative party in britain, ever since the 19305 and pg wodehouse satirising roderick spode, the sort of tin pop character. Its always just been in the tory psychology, a fearof. Im not saying that farage is that, but a fear of people who could be identified as extremist. So, its a big calculation that they have to now make. Do they go divided or united . Ye5, do they do a deal with the brexit party and attempt to say. And, stephanie, that, surely, is the same problem that the other side have the Rebel Alliance have got to decide. Exactly. I mean, i think this election is so hard to predict because the 2 party 5y5tem is really broken down and, you know, there are all these voter5 with this shift of the tory party morphing into a brexit party, a hardcore brexit party. It has left millions of voters politically homele55. From across the spectrum, tory remainer5, tory remainer5 who want to respect the referendum but dont want no deal, tory brexiteer5 who dont want no deal, torie5 of all 5tripe5 who believe in fiscal prudence where do they go in this new setup . And i think people are underestimating how many votes the liberal democrats will pick up. 0r corbyn that will unite. So, i think the lib dems will steal from both the tory party and labour. And the conservative party is banking on a complete realignment to pick up labour leave voters in the north, and thats a real gamble when, at the same time, theyve purged tory moderates and Ruth Davidson in scotland has stepped down and theyre likely to lose anywhere between six to ten seats, possibly more. Weve only got a few seconds left. Before we get to electoral politics, annalisa, surely the question for the Rebel Alliance this week is to answer the questions, which will be in many voters mind why on earth do we need another extension of three months . Weve been in this purgatory long enough. Yes, but what is the alternative . When everybody knows, even the government has admitted that no deal is a disaster and it will damage the economy. You have to come back from the brink. Just to comment on. I dont have time, annalisa. One word. Responsibility of the anti no deal front will be key now. Eu will not give a further extension. Wow yeah, no, they will. Theyve already said they will. They wont. Macron is against. A thought to lob in at the end. Were going to have to come back to that next week. But thank you all so much for this week. And that is it from dateline london. We will be back next week, same place, same time, with a lot more to discuss. Goodbye. Hello once again. After such a decent weekend, it is a shame the new week starts off on such a wet note. If you are close to this weather front, it will be a wet start. Cloudy for parts of Eastern England but the rain arriving later on in the day. Northern ireland brightening up through the afternoon, and the northern half of the British Isles staying very cloudy. Thats less rain to finish off the afternoon. That wont be the case across parts of wales and the south west. The heavy downpours and may be the odd rumble of thunder. The rain will dissipate into the small hours of tuesday, clearing skies. Pretty chilly, especially across central and eastern areas, may be some mist and fog around as well. The ground has been very wet. True today start of tuesday start of bright for many of us, but wet and windy weather into Northern Ireland and scotland. Northern britain will have a pretty wild night. Goodbye. This is bbc news welcome if youre watching here in the uk, on pbs in america or around the globe. Im simon pusey. Our top stories the taliban says the us has the most to lose after President Trump pulled out of peace talks to end the afghan war. The head of a Us Aid Agency says Hurricane Dorian has left parts of the bahamas looking like they were hit by a nuclear bomb. And a champion for conservation and christianity. Pope francis takes his message to millions in madagascar. And from a wheelchair to a waterski. 15 years after he was shot, and left for dead, a fresh challenge for our security correspondent frank gardner