Parliament was in or and colleagues we Re Parliament was in or and colleagues were terrified of them and how they used this period was very significant. Some moved to their doom in this intoxicating period, to may being an example. She was 20 points ahead in her honeymoon. It seems to me that he is making several risks. In proroguing parliament, he has united all that disparate group of anti know dealers who were fractious, unclear of what to do and when to do it. In flirting with an early election, early elections are dangerous in british politics. I thinkjohnson is taking big risks during this intoxicating period. He is only having to Face Parliament for one day so far and its still a Hung Parliament and it cant change that until an election. I see risks in this strategy but its clear what it is, he has not hidden it. He wants to get britain out on october the 31st and feels that the fate of his party is dependent, and him obviously come on doing so. Eunice, intoxicated . Surely because these are very dangerous tactics. The honeymoon period is also at the added advantage for the city to Prime Minister that parliament is not sitting so there are no announcements and everything goes well. And he forgets, ithink announcements and everything goes well. And he forgets, i think he is forgetting the key fact that he is the Prime Minister of a minority government. Suspending parliament when the clock is ticking for brexit is extremely dangerous and it has had the effect of uniting people who are againsta had the effect of uniting people who are against a no deal brexit but so far had failed to come together, drafting a strategy on how to stop a no deal brexit. He managed to do that and as steve said, even if the endgame is to an early election, thatis endgame is to an early election, that is very risky. Not only are these very difficult times but the british electorate has been highly volatile for the past decade. No party leader, particularly of the main parties, can count on winning a majority at any election. British vote rs majority at any election. British voters are at their most volatile so it is very dangerous. Desperate times, desperate gamble needed, jef . It is self inflicted desperation. Brexit has been a big problem in british politics since the referendum because the kind of brexit that was envisaged by the people who voted for it is not what can be accomplished. This has continued to be the giant piece of concrete that the dinosaur has to swallow it cant be done. Theresa may kicked the can down the road, that was her technique for keeping parliament from having scrutiny and now we are in a phase where Boris Johnsons technique is to use the clock to prevent parliament from having scrutiny because i think he figures that even if people were able to have a no confidence vote, it wont be effective in time for october 31 because of the vagaries of the fixed Term Parliament act. If the people try to stop it through legislation and say that article 50 has to be postponed, its very likely it will be filibustered in the lords or some other way could be found. The desperation is, i got the tactics and the initiative, im going to do what it takes. It is almost leninist but there is a long tradition minority government is winning. 1983, tradition minority government is winning. 1983, margaret tradition minority government is winning. 1983, Margaret Thatcher election, the labour and sdlp alliance had a much higher percentage of the votes but she ran a very effective and tough government. It is in the british syste m government. It is in the british system because the way the voting works. This is now on steroids but it is moved fast and break things, Silicon Valley punk politics almost and fora Silicon Valley punk politics almost and for a new age and it is like trump. It is almost so outrageous, nobody can stop me, its cool and funny to look at, lets go so far its working. Which comes back to the intoxication that steve was looking at but stefanie, can you give us your assessment at this point of the game plan and also, i know you have been in berlin and talking to brussels but give us a sense of how europe is perceiving the game plan at this moment, the plan to suspend parliament. The game plan at this moment, the plan to suspend parliamentm the game plan at this moment, the plan to suspend parliament. It has been a really interesting to be on the continent last week and watch it from the other side of the channel. I think there are two narratives going on. In a way, borisjohnson for now cant do anything wrong because his narrative is, i actually wa nt because his narrative is, i actually want a deal. If he doesnt get it, it is the fault of the europeans and he has to go for no deal so he has been forced into no deal. He tried his best but it was impossible because of the implanted in europeans. Talking to people in berlin and brussels, they have seen this coming intransigent europeans. Over the summer they saw the blame game starting to getting stea m the blame game starting to getting steam and it really fierce and they have been preparing their own narrative. What are they doing . That was the famous and interesting meeting of chancellor merkel and borisjohnson to say, you can solve that in 30 days. She didnt mean that in 30 days. She didnt mean that really. What she was trying to do is to say, we are helpful and constructive, we want a deal and if there is not a deal, its your fault. Both sides are getting that narrative. Getting ready for the crunch. Before we get to the crunch between the europeans and Boris Johnson, what about the crunch in westminster . How effective do you see this Rebel Alliance at turning its rainbow of outrage into action . First of all its worth pausing to reflect that this is going to be an astonishing a few days. That sort of cliche, parliament versus the executive, really taking tangible form. The answer is that we know certain things. We know the majority in the house of commons is opposed to no deal because they have been previous votes where they have expressed this. We know also that the speaker, john bercow, is a pro parliamentary figure. Some, u nfa i rly pro parliamentary figure. Some, unfairly so, so you will add for remainers but its not that, he will facilitate parliament having a voice. That is two very big advantages for this fractious group of rebels, which include tories who wa nt of rebels, which include tories who want a deal and out, some labour people who want us to remain in after a referendum and so on. Two very big advantages. On the other side, when you look at the pattern of this whole saga from the beginning, the hardline brexiteers win every time. They forced a weak Prime Minister, david cameron, into holding a referendum. They won the referendum. They did not like theresa mays deal and if we did it. They wanted Boris Johnson theresa mays deal and if we did it. They wanted borisjohnson in theresa mays deal and if we did it. They wanted Boris Johnson in and theresa mays deal and if we did it. They wanted borisjohnson in and got him in. Even though this alliance unquestionably have the figures, they lack the same brutal focus and determination that the other side, in some cases, brilliantly, have shown. That sets it up if you like. They do have the numbers, i think they still have the time, even though a few days have been cut off. Will they have the result . Will they have the result and the guile question what youre talking about people on the tory side like oliver letwin, a nice and thoughtful guy but not proven to deliver in these situations which is kind of epic. Jeremy corbyn, who, as leader of the opposition, has never shown a fascination or a skill of parliamentary dial. Guile. These are the kind of people we are talking about. Lets see. And if i can push you on one point, youre talking about a political dimension but how significant do you see the constitutional, legal direction and all these challenges in scotland, through the high court in london and indeedin through the high court in london and indeed in belfast . Yes, its a very good point. Part of the extraordinary drama of the next few daysis extraordinary drama of the next few days is to take one of the court cases. Youre having a former Prime Minister, john major, taking the current Prime Minister to court over proroguing parliament. And of the same party yes, former conservative Prime Minister and current conservative Prime Minister. This in itself is mind boggling politics. In parallel to the political drama, which i think will resolve this, not the courts, you do have the Legal Proceedings as well. And in both cases, lawyers are working round the clock, for the government in the court case orjohn major and others to try to stop this prorogation, but also, crucially for the rebels, the anti no deal rebels, lawyers are trying to frame as we sit here and now a legally watertight bill that will block no deal. You are absolutely right, there is a legal dimension but i sent in the end it will be the politics that decides this. Just before we lose the legal dimension, jef, you are a lawyer. How extraordinary is it to see judges tasked with the job of looking inside the head of the Prime Minister and trying to determine whether his intentions are different from the ones he states in relation to prorogation . Pretty extraordinary and also something they hate to do, and also something they hate to do, and with good reason. If you believe ina and with good reason. If you believe in a constitution and checks and balances and deference to the other branches of government, which is what impact keeps the system alive, evenif what impact keeps the system alive, even if the current Prime Minister is driving a bulldozer through it, judges really dont like to try to see past public statements to try to infer evil motive. This has happened in the us when trump has made many comments, this is a muslim ban, were going to ban all the muslims and his lawyers had to say, no, its not a muslim band, this is done for reasons of economy and other things. And the judges have done it but but only because it has been an extraordinary barrage and they would look ridiculous if they did not look beyond. It hasnt quite reached that a fever pitch with Boris Johnson yet. Do you agree with steve that this will be fought on a political battlefield at the end of the day rather than the battlefield of court . I think the judges will not wa nt court . I think the judges will not want to throw themselves into the middle of thisjoint political decision. Eunice, can you pick up on the characters . This is partly about the characters . This is partly about the characters . This is partly about the characters and what they can achieve and steve has raised questions about whetherjeremy corbyn and oliver letwin, whether they can pull off a victory against a very determined government. We dont know. Were in territory but i think it would be worth coming back to what happened since 2016 up to now and to see how the remain Political Parties and mps have voted. Having been given the means to vote on brexit thanks to the effo rts to vote on brexit thanks to the efforts of gina miller, we had the courts giving power to parliament to vote on brexit. This was a campaign who took it to court and it would have to be decided in parliament. And what did mps do . They voted to trigger article 50. Mps are thampi a macro divided, as steve said, and we dont know how they will behave next week. So far, judging from what happened in the past, there is very little reasons to be hopeful. Because the labour party is divided that they might be united on stopping a no deal brexit. Jeremy corbyn is not the most skilful leader of the opposition in terms of manoeuvring the parliamentary regulations and so on. The leader of the lib dems, she is dead against the lib dems, she is dead against the idea of having tojeremy corbyn being a caretaker Prime Ministerfor a short period of time. We have conservative rebels, we dont know how they will behave in the Division Lobbies so theres a of uncertainty and on the other hand have a ruthless machine in government where we have owed today, for instance, that downing street is telling potential rebel mps, you will be deselected if you vote to request an extension of article 50. That sets up extension of article 50. That sets up quite an asymmetry of forces. Stefanie, there is the question of timing and time is very short, Boris Johnson is talking about proroguing somewhere between the ninth and 12th of september. Very soon. It is very soon and there is also looming at the European Council in the middle of october, on the 17th and 18th of october. And following up on what steve said, the tricky thing is for the opposition they do not have a joint target. The hard brexiteers wa nt joint target. The hard brexiteers want a no deal but what the others wa nt want a no deal but what the others want is no clear. Some want to remain, some wanta want is no clear. Some want to remain, some want a soft brexit, to stay in a close relationship with the eu and so on and so forth and this is what theresa may tried to do, tojoin these interests. What borisjohnson is doing now, and especially apparently his special adviser dominic cummings, they have seen this weakness and they hit it and hit it hard. The opposition was so surprised by that, and the outrage that was felt this week, some people were saying that westminster felt like a courtyard of chickens, everybody headless and running around this is what they have foreseen. What you also have to have foreseen. What you also have to have in mind is the reaction in europe. Of course they are looking at this and they feel confirmed that you cannot trust this government so why on earth should they move on the backstop if the backstop something about trust to give the Northern Irish border open question this has certainly not helped the case, if it was honest, to get a better deal. Lets move on to the eu view of the situation because it matters so centrally because borisjohnson has said that his opponent in westminster are undermining and thwarting his ability to negotiate effectively with europe, that there isa effectively with europe, that there is a deal to be had but that westminster is making it difficult for him to get it. I cant quite believe he is honest when he says that, im really sorry. Where is the proof that actually his government, his advisers, have taken any money to do another Feasibility Study of different arrangements or an alternative on the border . They havent done anything. What they are doing is talking a lot, sending people to brussels, sitting there and doing technical talks which is what i hear from brussels, but on the ground, there is nothing that is really convincing the europeans that there is honesty behind wanting a deal. They are pretty much convinced that no deal is actually the outcome that no deal is actually the outcome that everybody government here is looking for. This is an important question in terms of whether there is an effort to get a deal. The Prime Minister said tempo is raised, we re Prime Minister said tempo is raised, were going back and negotiating twice a week, he has sent his top Civil Servant over. Do you believe he wants a deal . No, and so far no minister has been asked coming back from those trips to brussels, paris, berlin and so on, what have you proposed. They have no answer. There are no alternative arrangements to those that have been negotiated by theresa may. This is again for mass consumption. Most european leaders are completely aghast at what happened. Many of them lead a minority government and, can you imagine if minority government and, can you imagine if i suspended Parliament Like borisjohnson . Imagine if i suspended Parliament LikeBoris Johnson . It imagine if i suspended Parliament Like borisjohnson . It is totally undera like borisjohnson . It is totally under a trustworthy and they are preparing themselves for managing public expectations by saying, if there is a no deal brexit, thats your own fault. I think he aches for a deal. Because every route you contemplate from his perspective is full of little landmines. That is true, whoever you reflect on in this current drama allsop there is one route through for him. If he were to get a deal and brittany leaves october 31 come on november the 1st of the transitional arrangements kick in. Nothing much will have changed, to quote theresa may. There is no transitional arrangement ona there is no transitional arrangement on a no deal brexit. There is no transitional arrangement on a nodeal brexit. No, if he gets a deal there would be and he could start and say that we have left, the pound is soaring because nothing would have changed for two years at least. And then call an election. The problem is, what is the deal . And what is the deal that he can reassure the hardliners known as the erg group of this Parliamentary Party, that it is significantly different from theresa may . In this game of poker thats going on, i think he does want a deal, but it is not at all clear, as the rest of the panel, who have spent time in europe, confirmed, that anything of substance can change in the next few days can i press you on one point . Does it need to be that different from theresa mays deal . Do the erg group not come closer towards this cliff edge of no deal and share a concern about the possibilities of what might happen . No, the erg group would prefer no deal than anything that has any echo of the theresa may deal. He could probably get it through on the back of labour mps who are now so terrified of no deal that he would get a block voting for something close to hers, but it would split his Parliamentary Party. The hardliners are not sentimental, its one of the reasons they have been so successful. And if they see it just as been so successful. And if they see itjust as a shadow of her deal, i think they will be up in arms about it. It would need substantial change but there is no evidence of that. You say that he aches for a deal but it might cost him the unity up his polymer tea party to get it. When i say he aches, he aches to get out on october 31. The smooth route is with a deal, no question. Between those two, sporting the Parliamentary Party and getting a deal off the back of labour, which is preferable . I dont know, i dont know. I just see is preferable . I dont know, i dont know. Ijust see political problems every which way. My view is that it depends how you see the no deal. Perhaps naively, i believe people like the governor of the bank of england, who said the other day, euphemistically, firms depended on the supply chain, which comes with being part of the Single Market and customs union, will no longer be economically viable on november the 1st. Economically viable on november the ist. I economically viable on november the 1st. I think no deal would be a catastrophe. If i were him, i would look for some deal, pretend it is a great significant change, face down the hardliners and then claim a triumph. As i said at the beginning, very unusually for a new Prime Minister, this book ive said that they all left themselves wriggle room with the various problems they would face when getting into number 10 and he has left himself with so little. That is why im so hesitant in saying that he would prefer a deal. And theresa may tried to take the unpalatable meal and declare victory and it didnt work too well. No will ijust i just cant see that there is anything that the European Union is going to come up with that is going to make Jacob Rees Mogg happy. And a lot of people want to crash out. There is something satisfying to them in the whole psychological scenario. As you said, it is the ha rdliners scenario. As you said, it is the hardliners who have the venom and you cant see them breaking unless it isa you cant see them breaking unless it is a real capitulation by europe which is not on the cards bottom institution institutional or morally. I cant imagine that labour would vote to support Boris Johnson and keep him in government. That is another thing. Only the fear of no deal would propel them to do that. That is why he wants to keep no deal on the table and thats why the rebels, if they had the resolve and guile to pull it off, would have pulled off something massively significant. If they do block no deal, it changes the whole dynamic of this. Who around the table believe they have got it in them to do so . It doesnt sound like it . |j dont think so because we have a clash of two different cultures, the westminster politics which is all about waffle and being in permanent campaigning mode, and the political culture of the eu which at this stage in brexit negotiations, its not enough to say that we want a deal. Show us exactly what you want in this deal. We have to remember that what has been agreed so far was the result of the red lines of the british government, the backstop was a massive concession from the eu towards great britain. In the court of the brits, to come with proposals and so far they have failed to do that and there are no signs out there that they have any concrete ideas about how to convince the eu to make the concessions sign a new deal or political declarations. To make the concessions sign a new deal or political declarationslj dont deal or political declarations. dont think anybody disagrees . In which case, coming back to steves question, do you regard this Rainbow Alliance as having any chance of stopping borisjohnson alliance as having any chance of stopping Boris Johnson on alliance as having any chance of stopping borisjohnson on the way to october the 31st . Im not very optimistic about them having really the political power and the political wit to stop no deal and therefore stop or obstruct Boris Johnsons strategy. I think it will be very difficult and they have so little time. I hate being pessimistic because it plays into the inevitability idea that Boris Johnson wants to create, that hes got to get this through and get it out of the way, but i have to agree. Im pessimistic. And if everybody around the table agrees on this direction of travel, does this mean out on october 31 and a general election called a couple of months after . They do have the numbers, and they will have a procedural mechanism to do it. So, lets see. All i would preface my view was, the patent would suggest the hardliners will win because they have won at every juncture so will win because they have won at everyjuncture so far but the numbers are there will stop it is in their hands if they want to do it so lets see. The october 31, if they fail, that deadline seems to me to be unyielding. You have an executive then in full control, parliament would have stepped aside. And they have made clear that the uk is leaping on october the 31st. The issue then becomes a deal or no deal. As we have agreed, there would be very little change from the European Union over the Withdrawal Agreement so it would look then like no deal was much more likely. That is why this week is massively pivotal in this drama. We have to leave it there, a pivotal week in westminster ahead. Thank you all so much forjoining us today. That is it for this week and we will be back next week to analyse the week that was. The same place, same time. Goodbye. Hello there. Its the last day of august and the weather definitely has an end of summer feel about it. Some big changes taking place at the moment. Rain continuing to move eastwards through the rest of today, and behind that band of rain things turning significantly cooler. This is the satellite picture from the last 2a hours or so. You can see the way in which this stripe of cloud has been sitting across Northern Ireland and scotland. Weve had an awful lot of rain in places, but now that cloud and rain on the move eastwards, and as it clears away to the east, it will leave us all in this very cool northwesterly breeze. So this is how things look through the afternoon. We see our band of cloud and increasingly light and patchy rain staggering eastwards across england towards east anglia and the south east, then a mix of sunshine and showers. Still some heavy rain falling across the northern half of scotland and blustery winds as well. And underneath that wet weather, temperatures really will struggle some spots no better than 11, 12 or 13 degrees. Turning drier and brighter for southern scotland and Northern Ireland, but with a scattering of showers, some of which could be heavy and thundery. Some of those showers into north west england, one or two into wales. South west looks generally dry through the afternoon with some spells of sunshine. 19 degrees for plymouth, the cooler, fresher air, and then here is our band of cloud and very patchy rain just staggering into east anglia and the south east. Once that clears away, as we get into the evening, all of us will feel the effects of that cooler air. Some clear spells and some showers to take us through the night and temperatures getting down to between eight and 11 degrees. Certainly a fresher night than weve been used to lately. So, sunday morning, starting off on a decidedly cool note. There will be some spells of sunshine around through the day. Again, some showers being blown in on this northwesterly wind into Northern Ireland, scotland, some into northern england. We might see a few showers just getting across lincolnshire into east anglia. But generally speaking the further south and west you are, through wales, South West England for example, not too many showers, more in the way of sunshine. But those temperatures well down on where they have been 13 to 21 degrees. And, actually, as this little bump of High Pressure tries to build in during sunday night into monday, we could see a touch of ground frost in some countryside spots in scotland early on monday morning, and a chilly start to the day elsewhere. It looks pretty mixed through the week ahead, rain at times but not all the time. It does, however, stay rather cool. This is bbc news, im shaun levy. The headlines at 12. Police in hong kong use tear gas and water cannon to try and disperse large crowds of pro democracy protesters. This is the scene live in hong kong, where demonstrators have been lighting fires and attacking a key government building. The chancellor, sajid javid, insists his relationship with borisjohnson is fantastic, despite downing street abruptly firing one of his special advisers sonia khan. I am not going to discuss any personnel issues, it would be inappropriate. I think my views are well understood. The relationship is fantastic with the Prime Minister. And strictly come dancing looks set to allow same sex couples to compete from next year. And click looks at a new technology called object based media. Thats in half an hour, here on bbc news