For sabotage operations. How can the uk now respond to the seizure of an oil tanker without making matters worse . What is the answer . The answer is, this freedom of navigation was perfectly practised in that part of the world until President Trump decided to mess everything when he decided to mess everything when he decided to mess everything when he decided to pull out from the nuclear deal with iran. Now he has imposed huge sanctions. He wanted to prevent any single barrel of a uranium oil to be exported, he wanted to starve the iranian people, hoping he can topple the regime. Starve the iranian people . That is a strong language. That is not strong language. That is not strong language. They starve the iraqi people before that for ii language. They starve the iraqi people before that for 11 years. They are starving gaza people also until this moment. I think this is the practice, starve the people, the People Revolt and they will topple the regime. It cannot work at all. Sol the regime. It cannot work at all. So i really feel that the government here actually committed a grave mistake, a grave disaster, to detain iranians ship. There is no embargo, there is no International Law which allows britain to detain iranians. You are talking about the tanker in gibraltar . So the gibraltarians have detained the tanker. It is the british. The Royal Marines were definitely involved so i am not going to fight with you. definitely involved so i am not going to fight with you. I believe it was a grave mistake by the British Government, the gibraltar government, to detain that iranians tanker. The grand ayatollah of iran warned several times the British Government that we will retaliate if you dont release this tanker. They didnt. Now in a suicidal move, they are ina didnt. Now in a suicidal move, they are in a suicidal mood, they would not actually leave the British Government or not actually leave the British Government oi any not actually leave the British Government or any government to starve their own people and they will retaliate and they did retaliate. So if i am a consultant to the British Government, which i will never be, i will say to theresa may or borisjohnson, released this iranians tanker immediately and avoid trouble. If there is a war, it will be disastrous. I want to hear what the rest of you think. Will be disastrous. I want to hear what the rest of you thinkli will be disastrous. I want to hear what the rest of you think. I think thatis what the rest of you think. I think that is a bit difficult because of the United Kingdom is still a that is a bit difficult because of the United Kingdom is stilla member of the European Union and the reason they stopped the tanker, as far as i am aware, is that it was breaking sanctions, so how can the uk then say because of a difficult situation in iran, wejust say because of a difficult situation in iran, we just ignore what we agreed with the europeans. Sanctions against syria, this is going to the syrian people. We have 25 million syrian people. We have 25 million syrian people. We have 25 million syrian people. You want to deprive them completely of energy . You dont wa nt them completely of energy . You dont want them to fill their cars with petrol . The fact is, it is that they broke eu sanctions. I mean, i petrol . The fact is, it is that they broke eu sanctions. I mean, lam sure there are deeper reasons when the diplomatic cables are released 30 years after we are all dead but iran is particularly exercised around this. Presumably they were notjust giving this oil to around this. Presumably they were not just giving this oil to the syrian people, the Syrian Regime was paying for the oil, and the big problem is that the sanctions prevent the sale of oil. Just the sale of oil. This is what is interesting. The eu, this week is so interesting, in the 12 36 hours before this latest round of tit for tat, there was diplomatic activity in new york and there was also reported activity in trying to figure out a workaround for the sanctions. Russia is very keen, and russia is an important player in this story that we often ignore. Russia was very keen to work with the European Union to find a new Payment System that would allow the sale of oil but that would avoid payment in dollars, but the iranians also need dollars in order to maintain their economy. All of this was under discussion. The European Union, including britain, and then this event happened. Why the Spanish Government did not detain this ship . This is part of the European Union. Canl this is part of the European Union. Can i speak . Otherwise they will think they are paying me for not speaking. Ijust think they are paying me for not speaking. I just dont think they are paying me for not speaking. Ijust dont believe that out speaking. Ijust dont believe that our country and our foreign secretary and our government would be so assiduous about what the eu wants. We know what they think about the eu, they way they have treated the eu, they way they have treated the eu, they way they have treated the eu, it is nothing to do with the eu. Idont the eu, it is nothing to do with the eu. I dont think they were conscious of that at all. This is to do with our special relationships with the United States, i dangerous special relationship, which they now have to grow very fast because there is no other option. I do think, although he does it in this colourful way, i do think he has a point, this ideal that you do this toa point, this ideal that you do this to a country which you kind of punish eight collectively punish it and it started because trump hated what barack and it started because trump hated what ba rack obama and it started because trump hated what barack obama did. He hated barack obama. So he did everything in his power. In relation to that nuclear deal . It started with a very personal thing. But the point remains that i am astonished, the men who rule iran are just as obnoxious as the ones we are dealing with in the west, and i was thinking, this is all about men. Horrible, non negotiating, arrogant, self important men who are going to us self important men who are going to us intoa self important men who are going to us into a war. Does anyone disagree with the gender point . |j us into a war. Does anyone disagree with the gender point . I do disagree because those men actually were highly accepted by the British Government, american government, European Union and they talked to them, negotiated with them and they struck a deal to contain iranians nuclear activities. So you say it is not a gender issue. Just on the gender issue, lets deal with that before we go back to anything else. It isa before we go back to anything else. It is a funny, the nuclear deal was essentially because men are in charge, i dont know what input Angela Merkel had in those negotiations, but by and large, i think there are gender issues, particularly related to iran, god knows, and also in the us and in the uk. But in this specific instance, i am not sure that you can make the. 0h, am not sure that you can make the. Oh, i am not sure that you can make the. 0h, ithink am not sure that you can make the. Oh, i think you can. Stephanie will tell us. The gender question is a bit difficult in this context but it is not so much about Angela Merkel, it is just the nuclear deal is something that is seen in germany as a massive achievement of years and yea rs of a massive achievement of years and years of negotiation and of course germans want to protect it and they are actually taking quite a risk in their relationship with the United States, which is already very difficult now, it is a very bad, and there is another challenge now that they have to manage. On the underlying point that jasmine was making about american agenda which the uk, in order to support its special relationship, come climbing off the fence in support of an american position. Do you see that . I do. What i thought was very interesting, during the course of the week, donald trump gave this extraordinary speech, blatantly racist call to his core supporters, about sending these four Congress Women of colour back to where they came from. The British Press asked borisjohnson and came from. The British Press asked Boris Johnson and they askjeremy hunt, who is his alleged challenger to take over as Prime Minister, will you condemn a to take over as Prime Minister, will you condemna tramp, to take over as Prime Minister, will you condemn a tramp, and they both can you condemn a tramp, and they both can dodge the question. Jeremy hunt is still be foreign secretary. I inferred from what he was saying and the way he ducked, saying, i criticise the president for this, that he is considering britains position in all this. Where do we stand . And i do think that britain is already finding itself in that uncomfortable new ground that if brexit goes through as expected, we are going to find ourselves with you either really get into the pocket of an American Administration that i think a lot of people in this country probably dont like, even conservatives who are pro brexit, probably have some questions about him. So on this practical question, an American Coalition of the willing in the gulf, is that something you feel the uk will feel it has to join . I dont know. Yes. Yes we are not forming coalitions yet. Lets not forming coalitions yet. Lets notjump not forming coalitions yet. Lets not jump too not forming coalitions yet. Lets notjump too farahead. Not forming coalitions yet. Lets notjump too far ahead. Even a not forming coalitions yet. Lets not jump too far ahead. Even a month ago or six weeks ago. It is not a war coalition, by the way. It is allegedly, or it claims to be by the americans, i coalition in order to improve security. Well, what does that mean . The security links between the us and the uk go back into world war ii. They have gone through all kinds of changes and revolutions. I dont see why that would change now. And the tensions, explored in fiction, ijust dont see that that will change. But insofar as racing towards some sort of violent confrontation or even sending in, this is entirely hypothetical, suppose the Trump Administration agrees to some kind of special forces going to the area, as happened in the 19805, and american 5pecial as happened in the 19805, and American Special forces go in and do some physical damage, would the uk go in on that . Possibly. Yes. Are you saying yes so firmly because. Both. We are now going to be a dependency of the United States. That is a strong language. Dependency of the United States. That is a strong languagelj dependency of the United States. That is a strong language. I have written it, i have said it, and we have to be clear, watching liam fox in the United States handling himself in a way i have never seen thi5 himself in a way i have never seen this man doing before, everybody know5, even bori5 this man doing before, everybody know5, even Boris Johnson this man doing before, everybody know5, even bori5johnson know5, that when we do what this catastrophic thing called brexit. Your opinion, obviously. Yes, my opinion. The United States i5 your opinion, obviously. Yes, my opinion. The United States is what we feel we have to full back on and that brings certain conditions, and i think those conditions are not forgotten by trump. Stephanie, i will bring you in in a moment, but the point you made about the, again, strong language, you said, suicidal state of mind in iran. Where does that go next if this escalates . it does escalate, it will be a disaster. When i said a suicidal mood, the iranians will bomb. They have a huge arsenal of missiles, ballistic missiles. They will hit the american bases in the gulf, they will hit the american aircraft carriers. You have forgotten israel. Israel also. They havent done it in 40 years of tension. I think you are being a little hyperbolic. This is a dangerous thing. They will send their speedboats to destroy all the desalination plants in the gulf, they will destroy all the electrical stations in the gulf. It means when it is 55 centigrade there, it means that people will be deprived of water, air conditioning. that people will be deprived of water, air conditioning. Ithink michael is right. This will not be. I know why you are feeling the5e thing5 i know why you are feeling the5e things and i respect your feelings but there is another force, and Nuclear Power in israel. But if you wa nt to Nuclear Power in israel. But if you want to starve me to death, do you expect me to throw in the towel . The iranians, when they said they will shoot down american spy drones, they did. When they said, we will detain a british tanker, and they did. And when they said they will hurt israel, they did. Ijust when they said they will hurt israel, they did. I just want to quickly 5ay, israel, they did. I just want to quickly say, two days ago, an annual pre55 quickly say, two days ago, an annual press conference , quickly say, two days ago, an annual press conference, like Vladimir Putin doe5, press conference, like Vladimir Putin does, and russia once again is 5erving it5 putin does, and russia once again is 5erving its interests and friendship toward5 iran, before we get to desalination, before planes go flying into i5rael, ru55ia desalination, before planes go flying into i5rael, russia will have much to say about this crisis. And potentially china. A lot of the oil and gas that goes through the gulf is heading east to china and india. A little bit of nuance to what you said, in terms of the British Government and with a new Prime Minister next week, it will do exactly what the us once. What i have heard from the foreign office, the briefings they are getting, that coalition already exists because we have our ships via and there is a structure for securing this trade path. But i would be a bit more careful to say the United Kingdom, from next week on, will do anything that the United States. from next week on, will do anything that the United States. I do think. They are not on that page. But the Civil Service is now being targeted as an enemy of the people. When bori5johnson targeted as an enemy of the people. When Boris Johnson was targeted as an enemy of the people. When bori5johnson was in targeted as an enemy of the people. When Boris Johnson was in the foreign office, hi5 when Boris Johnson was in the foreign office, his record of being totally impulsive, and he said over and overagain, the united totally impulsive, and he said over and over again, the United States i5 out and over again, the United States i5 our closest ally. He needs something to mark him quite soon. Quite early on. But the British Public does not like the politics of the us president so why would he do it . And he cannot count on the us president giving him a good trade deal. think the tory party particularly that we now have in power is not going to be influenced by what the public. We gave trump a state vi5it public. We gave trump a state visit that the people didnt want. We did it, forallthe visit that the people didnt want. We did it, for all the reasons i have said. And at that point we are going to move on and look more closely at this new Prime Minister. She said, brexit means brexit. He says, do or die. Under theresa may, it turned out that brexit didnt mean brexit after all. But this is her last weekend in power. If Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister on wednesday, as most observers expect, should we expect him to do or to die . Stephanie, we are going to leave all the iran, us and uk to one side at the iran, us and uk to one side at the moment, i want to look at the eu and the brexit dilemma. On the way to answering that do or die question, can you help us understand whether this is a moment for a reset with europe, because whether it is johnson orjeremy hunt, they have both said they want to renegotiate the agreement. No, i dont think things will change at all. Next week we will probably have borisjohnson as Prime Minister, then this week, the german secretary of defence was confirmed as the new Commission President , and she is a very interesting woman, and she is a stern european, i would not say federalist. She does not talk of this superstate of europe, she does not talk of this european army, so she is quite careful. She does know how important britain is in terms of security and defence and she has very Good Networks in the uk, she has been coming here a lot. She is quite an unusual german politician in the sense that she was born in brussels, she speaks fluent english and french, she moves very smoothly on all the international stages, so she knows what is waiting for her, but you should also have in mind borisjohnson going but you should also have in mind Boris Johnson going to but you should also have in mind borisjohnson going to brussels, visiting berlin, visiting paris, they are not looking forward to that. It is a very difficult situation for them. If you look at what Angela Merkel said yesterday, nothing has changed. She said the Withdrawal Agreement stands at it is, we can talk, but she talks about the political declaration, so i cant see it. What is interesting now, what happens on the 31st of october when the extension runs out. I really think they will be another extension. And they are talking about it again. If there are circumstances that are necessary, we will give another extension. It will just drag on and very likely we will see a general election. And yet on october the 315t, borisjohnson, assuming he is the next Prime Minister, he said, do or die. But there was a vote in parliament and for the first time there was some courage 5hown for the first time there was some courage shown by people of all partie5 courage shown by people of all parties and what they have managed to do by not a large majority but a significant majority, what he will not be able to do, which some of them have threatened, and i believe borisjohnson is perfectly capable of doing, is to prorogued parliament and just do what he wants. For god sake, if this was happening in zimbabwe, we would call it out. We cannot shut down one of the oldest and most mature democracies in parliamentary democracy just because you want to take us out of europe on a particular day. Ithink you want to take us out of europe on a particular day. I think stephanie is right, all sensible people now assume there is going to have to be an extension because the parliamentarians have won the right to carry on debating what is going to carry on debating what is going to happen. Michael . Just as likely to happen. Michael . Just as likely to change the way we are talking about this, i keep thinking, as this mighty day of the coronation of boris approaches, that three years ago, if michael gove had not knifed him in the front, and he had become Prime Minister, as everybody tipped him to be after David Cameron resigned, would we be at this place anyway . And part of me thinks, you know, we would be at this place a nyway know, we would be at this place anyway because the delivery of brexit in any kind of way that is other than a total crash out and a burning, essentially, of the effective settlement of British Society for 45 years, it cant be done, it simply cant. There is a pa rt of done, it simply cant. There is a part of me that is cynical, i know you wont believe that, but the cynic in me thinks, in the end, something very like the Withdrawal Agreement that theresa may has already agreed. Yes. And Angela Merkel and whoever succeeds it will agree to it, so it is slightly different, and then boris can claim, idid it, different, and then boris can claim, i did it, the woman, to come back to the gender point, the woman could not do it but i did it. I am not sure. There is still enough hardliners believing it has to be pure brexit. I am thinking of the morning after Boris Johnson, what will happen, is he going to renegotiate again . Is he going to be welcomed by European Union leaders . Are they going to make concessions to him . I agree with stephanie, there is a very, very little time and he will be forced to have an extension. The parliament would not let him leave without an agreement, without a deal. This is the basic thing. But what about Northern Ireland . It remains absolutely an unsolved issue. So if you are jeremy hunt or Boris Johnson, unsolved issue. So if you are jeremy hunt or borisjohnson, you say you are going to go back to europe and get a better deal and threaten no deal in order to get a better deal. You cant do that because they have said, and quite rightly, i dont know how patient the eu have been, how patient have they been with this incredibly badly behaved child that britain is . But, honestly, they are not going to do this. And also, i have a lot of contacts in Northern Ireland. There is a real worry in Northern Ireland that the Peace Agreement that was achieved after so long and is fragile, it continues to be fragile, this indifference to Northern Ireland is really upsetting them. We have only got a couple of minutes left so i want a quick a nswer minutes left so i want a quick answer on whether michaels point is going to basically be the end of the road. Donald trump said just yesterday that the uk is going to get a new Prime Minister, his name is probably Boris Johnson get a new Prime Minister, his name is probably borisjohnson and he will straighten it out. Will he straighten it out one way or the other . I see quite a cynical game going on. In europe, on the continent, there is a fear that what is going to happen is, borisjohnson asked for an extension, there will bea asked for an extension, there will be a general election, and he will campaign on the platform of no deal. If he gets a majority, a big question, but if, he will say he has to do no deal and the europeans have been intransigent. This is the narrative that has built up. Because ireland and Northern Ireland because they did not want a compromise. I think for the relationship between britain and europe, it is going to be really bad. The rest of you have ten seconds. I think the british people should decide. ten seconds. I think the british people should decide. I think he will cling on once he has got his feet under the desk. He has got until 2022 to mess things up. think there are going to be quite a lot of crashes under boris immediately and then there might be some mature politics. And without thought, we to leave it. With that thought. Thats it for dateline london for this week. Were back next week at the same time. Goodbye. Most m ost pla ces most places will get to see some sunshine at some stage of today but there are further heavy showers to be had and some thunderstorms too. In western parts of the uk, they will be some quieter weather edging in during the day as a low pressure begins to pull away towards the north sea. We are already dry into Northern Ireland and western scotland. Wales, western parts of england, through this afternoon, eventually seeing fewer showers and more in the way of sunshine. They showers are still there this afternoon. The midlands, on towards east anglia, and some into the south east, and some will be heavy and thundery in places. Most of us between 18 and 22 degrees. Still quite breezy out there. Worse than that at royal portrush for the open golf. A big change tomorrow. Waterproofs will be born again, the wind will start to pick up, but we will get to that in a moment. This is how saturday finishes. The evening showers will fade from the east and then mainly dry and clear overnight. It is fresher, less humid, and that makes it easierfor sleeping. It takes us onto to part two of the weekend. It starts with a lot of sunshine but cloud already moving back into Northern Ireland. It wont be long before rain comes from it and that leads to a wet afternoon. The rain pushing across scotland, north west england and north wales. The south west. The south east will remain mainly dry. Quite windy and very wet for a time over night, sunday night into monday, across north west england and the west of scotland. After a cloudy start elsewhere, some sunny spells developing and the heat starting to build. It is a sign of things to come next week. Plus 40 celsius heat returning to Continental Europe and we tap into some of that. Scotland and Northern Ireland look to be in the mid 20s but england and wales, 30 or above. Very hot for some of us, very humid as well. It looks like a few days of fine weather across much of the uk before a gradual then the re breakdown before a gradual then the re brea kdown as we before a gradual then the re breakdown as we go deeper into that week. Thundery breakdown. This is bbc news, im shaun ley. The headlines at midday. Iran seizes a british flagged oil tanker in the gulf the uk government says therell be serious consequences if it isnt released. We will respond in a way that is considered but robust. We are absolutely clear that if this situation is not resolved quickly, there will be serious consequences. A warning from the chairman of the high speed 2 rail project its cost could rise by £30 billion. Its fifty years ago today that Neil Armstrong took the giant leap to become the first man to walk on the moon. And what about the race back to space . Click gets rare access to the latest Nasa Technology thats coming up