Welcome to hardtalk. Im stephen sackur. There is a basic human impulse to understand better the world we live in. It motivates scientists, economists, historians and the like to seek out patterns and the like to seek out patterns and connections. Most stay within a single discipline, but not my guest today. Jared diamonds hugely successful big picture explanations of the way human societies develop in books such as guns, germs and steel, and his latest, upheaval, draw on biology, geography, anthropology and more. So what is his conclusion about the long term viability of homo sapiens . Jared diamond, welcome to hardtalk. It isa jared diamond, welcome to hardtalk. It is a pleasure to be with you. have just mentioned it is a pleasure to be with you. havejust mentioned some it is a pleasure to be with you. have just mentioned some of the academic disciplines that you have trodden into during a very long career. When people ask you what do you do . , what do you say . Nowadays i say, im a geographer, im interested in lots of things. At present, my two main koreas are history and geography on the one hand, and birds on the other hand. My hand, and birds on the other hand. My third major career is physiology, i pursue that from 1966 to 2002, i was a professor of physiology, the worlds expert on gallbladder transplant, but it was the birth of my twin sons in 1987 that triggered my twin sons in 1987 that triggered my shift, because i realised that their future my shift, because i realised that theirfuture did not my shift, because i realised that their future did not depend my shift, because i realised that theirfuture did not depend on gallbladder spot on history and geography. This sounds like some kind of late 20th and early 20th century renaissance man im talking to. That has been the case for a long time. How many languages do you speak . I have known 13 languages, three of them i only read, latin, greek and dutch, ten languages i have spoken at one time or another. Half of them are rustic, i could give lectures in english, italian, german, guinea pigeon, and i can have a functional conversation in indonesian. It is fascinating. I have some jealousy towards you in some academic circles, and some question your actual deep knowledge of some of the subjects you delve into, is perhaps a product of the spread of your knowledge. Some might say you have spread so far it must be thin. It is true that i violate one of the grand principles of academia, two of them. First of all, in academia one is taught to be specialised and not stray outside your discipline. I certainly do get into other disciplines. The other principle is that once you talk in complex language, comprehensible only to other academics. If you try to explain things to the general public you are a popular riser, and the only reason to become one is because your research is washed up and you are prostituting yourself. I think these are two motives for objections. Once we get into the serious ideas you have developed in the books, lets talk about your upbringing as well. It seems to me that being a child born in pretty much into the Second World War had a huge influence on the way you saw the world and your interest in it. It did,i the world and your interest in it. It did, i was born in 1937. My second. I grew up during world war ii, myfirst second. I grew up during world war ii, my first memory in life was bostons Coconut Grove fire during the war that killed a95 people, my father was a physician so he was involved in the mop up. My second memory in life is a picture of the American Military released of dead soldiers face down in the surf. I grew up in world war ii, it stamped my mentality, and i grew up with my father having put on the wall of my bedroom two maps, one of the european theatre and one of the pacific theatre, moving the pins. So i grew pacific theatre, moving the pins. So igrew up pacific theatre, moving the pins. So i grew up with geography in my mind. Half a dozen crises faced nationstates in the 19th and 20th centuries, and your book roves from the us to japan to finland, to delay in south america. I wonder whether you believe there are things you have learned in these political crises that are universal, that span all of the different geographies that you layout. There are general things that are universal. 0f course, there are big differences. The United States with oceans on two sides, and canada and mexico on the other side, is geographically protected. Finland is not geographically protected, it has an 800 mile border with russia. So there are big differences between individual countries but there were general principles with politics, as there are with life, or a person together a personal crisis, whoever you are. You have to acknowledge a crisis and expect responsibility, and similarly with countries. That seems to be the idea that you have arrived at, that we can in some ways look at the history of crises in these nations, and apply some of the principles that we apply to individual human beings in crisis, the degree to which psychic crisis has to be solved or at least addressed by acknowledgement and a cce pta nce addressed by acknowledgement and acceptance of the nature of the crisis, and then communication and the ownership, responsibility. And then, the search for solutions. It is sort of psychotherapy for nationstates. Does that really work . No, i would say it is not psychotherapy. That is a good way to formulate it, but it is not psychotherapy for nationstates, it is instead that the outcomes of personal crises depend on a dozen factors, my wife being a clinical psychologist. She advised you on the development of this theory of how to tackle political crises. She didnt advise me, instead she explained to me each week the dozen factors that made it more or less likely that a person would deal with the personal crisis, and i realised that those factors suggest in some cases closely, and in other cases just as a metaphor, outcome variables to be tested for national crises. I want to related to the current day but before we get to the present day, it seems to me one of your conclusions is that if one wa nts to your conclusions is that if one wants to look at a nationstate that collectively acknowledge the problem, addressed a problem in the deepest sense, you would point us to germany after the fall of the nazis, after world war ii, as a prime example of a collective determination to learn the lessons and be better. That would be one good example, germany addressing the legacies of nazism slowly after world war ii. I lived in germany in 1961, i was there when the wall was erected. At that point germans were not yet dealing with the legacy of nazis but it accelerated especially with a student result of 68 to the point that today German School children learn about the holocaust in schools, they are taken to concentration camps which are now museums, where the German Government has explanations that are pitiless accou nts has explanations that are pitiless a ccou nts of has explanations that are pitiless accounts of what germans did. That contrasts with how the wartime atrocities are not dealt with in japan, and it also contrasts with how germany in world war i did not deal, after world war i, with how they got into that mass. What is america not dealing with today that they must deal with . In upheaval you barely mention the words donald trump, but you do address the degree to which you see a looming crisis, and upheaval, in the United States today. You say the first and most fundamental threat is our accelerating deterioration of political compromise. I want to explain exactly what you mean by that. By political compromise i mean being able to reach an agreement between groups with different perspectives, such as republicans and democrats. Compromise is essential to a democracy. It is not that you can agree about everything. Of course we had a civil war because of non compromise in american history. There are certain principles people stick to because they truly believe they are beyond compromise. To compromise would be to sacrifice a fundamental value. Thats right, at some point you have to decide where would i rather die than compromise . But apart from the civil war we have had a good history of compromise, even as recently as president ronald reagan. He and the democrats argued but had a productive relationship and lots of legislation got past. It started to deteriorate in the 19905 to the point that today, recent congresses have passed fewer laws than any in american history. Why do you think there is Something Special about your word polarisation that you see in the United States at present . That is a big question, about his a nswer that is a big question, about his answer i have not been certain. I have two hypotheses, one is the development of indirect communication. In contrast, in new guinea all contact is face to face. I doubt that is true today, because iimagine i doubt that is true today, because i imagine they have smart phones as much as we do, but. Yes, but until recently there were no cellphones in new guinea. Are you saying that there is something corro5ive about there is something corro5ive about the 5martphone world we live in . The internet, the fact that face to face communication is no longer what we expect and what we do. Is that something that is really damaging human beings . Yes, i think so. Its someone experiences someone has word5 someone experiences someone has words on a screen, it removes the inhibition5 about being rude to someone. Inhibition5 about being rude to 5omeone. Eur a few feet from me i am not going to start cur5ing at you, but if you were word5 not going to start cur5ing at you, but if you were words on the screen, i would be di5inhibited and more likely to curse. The fact is that civility in the us has crashed over the past couple of decades, raising the past couple of decades, raising the question why in the us more than other countries . Interesting, because im thinking he was a most famou5 u5e because im thinking he was a most famou5 use of social media in the world, and it is probably donald trump. I know in the book you say you dont want to talk much about donald trump, because he will be overta ken donald trump, because he will be ove rta ke n by donald trump, because he will be overtaken by events, as will my book ifi overtaken by events, as will my book if i focus on him. But lets just talk about donald trump and his use of twitter, for example. Do you see that as part of americas problem today . I would say yes, it raises the question why. Because italians and japanese u5e cellphones every bit as much as americans, but why has political compromise deteriorated further in the us, and i would suggest two reasons. One is that most of these technologies began in the us so maybe we just have a head start and it will soon get as bad in italy orjapan. The other reason is that there is just le55 social capital, le55 social glue, in the us, then india or britain. Distances are larger, we move more, friendships account for less. There is less social glue to oppose the corro5ive effect of non face to face communication. Oppose the corro5ive effect of non facetoface communication. It is fascinating stuff, and i want to ask you about the country you are sitting in today. You are with me in london, and britain is going through a form of a political crisis, all about brexit. Whether or not we are going to fulfil the wishes expre55ed in the referendum to leave the european union. It seems to me it is a question of identity, britain is addressing their fundamental identity. You know britain well, you first came here i believe in the 19505 to study. What do you make of erected and how does it fit into your theory of how cope with crisis . First and foremost, brexit i5 crisis . First and foremost, brexit is an argument about National Identity, who are we . That is natural and healthy, au5tralia after world war ii, germany after world war ii, went through these arguments about who are we. That is necessary. That is a positive side. The negative side is that to get through a National Identity crisis one has to be honest with oneself. They need an honest appraisal. It seems that i5 an honest appraisal. It seems that is conspicuously lacking among british politicians pushing for brexit. That is to say they dont acknowledge honestly the big drawbacks of brexit. And the third thing i would say about brexit, 5triking me as an american and also spending a lot of time in italy, is that if you can have a referendum, there were referenda in wisconsin, california, and italy, there are ways to do them well and ways to badly. There are models available for how to run a referendum. Britain didnt look to those models. A5 for how to run a referendum. Britain didnt look to those models. As a 5imple didnt look to those models. As a simple example, there wasnt a barrierfor percentage simple example, there wasnt a barrier for percentage of voters voting, and there wasnt a barrier for the opting for a given solution. Whereas in italy, a major referendum, there have to be 70 of voters turning out, and there have to be 70 approval. Ye5, no, iunderstand ye5, no, i understand the point you are making. I am just wondering, a5 you talk about britain and the United States, what place you see for the importance of individual leaders and leadership . Because you area leaders and leadership . Because you are a man known for your big sweeping ideas, the connections you make acro55 continents and regions, sort of making sense of human history. But what perhaps you dont do in your geography and history is give much importance to the agency of individuals. So how important could and should leadership be, for example, in todays United States or in todays exit written . Key question in todays exit written . Key que5tion the role of leaders depends on the circumstances and the question. The role of leaders have nothing to do with the origins of agriculture over the last 10,000 years, that had to do instead with the availability of wild wheat and bali within those individual regions. Will this is when you get described as the determinist, the geographical determinist or the environmental determinist, a word which i think you get sometimes extraordinarily irritated by, but nonethele55 a word which does ca ptu re nonethele55 a word which does capture the degree to which you do say, in the broadest sweep of history, you can explain huge things, the nature of development in different continents, by a simple, deterministic relationship with the forms of agriculture, the geographical position of those places. That is determinism, isnt it . And its completely true. Thats determinism where it is valid. There are some things that are determined by geography, and some not. If you would go to the north pole in january and try to stand there in a t shirt and shorts, you will discover that clothing in the north pole at the end of it is geographically determined. And similarly the emergence of agriculture over the last 10,000 yea rs agriculture over the last 10,000 years did not depend upon brands or an individual leader. It depended on the availability of wild plant and animal species for domestication. But to come back to the question you raised, which is a key one, what impact can lead to have today. In that context, the big picture determinism is valid. In that context, what role is therefore human agency, and in particularfor leadership . For the emergence of agriculture 10,000 years ago, for the settlement of exit and the polarisation in the United States today, a lot. What is lacking in the United States today is a leader who focuses on unifying us rather than dividing us. What seems to be lacking in britain today is a leader who will deal honestly with the issue of britains identity. If remaining separate from europe is so important that you are willing to make economic sacrifices, fine, but be frank about the economic sacrifices. In the case of the United States, what we need is a leader who, instead of dividing us, talks about the things that unify americans, and of which americans can be proud. What about inequality in all this . Because you talk. I lead you to talk about the role of the internet and changes in communication over the years, through technology. But what about the corrosive impact of what many studies suggest is widening inequality in developed industrialised societies . Thats true, and it even something that i discussed in my book, when i discussed in my book, when i discussed problems of the United States, one of the four biggest problems i see is inequality. In particular, the increasing Socio Economic inequality and the decline in Socio Economic mobility. The fact remains, though, that all americans, poor and rich, the fact remains, though, that all americans, poorand rich, we the fact remains, though, that all americans, poor and rich, we share some things. And those are the things of which the United States can be proud, and which our current president is not mentioning at all, which are the things that a future president , i hope, will invoke to hold us together. Our history of liberty, the fact that we fought for our independence, and americans got killed in order to become independent, the overcoming of our geography, the role of ellis island, the role of immigration, all americans are immigrants, whether we immigrated, whether our ancestors emigrated, like my father, in 190a, or with the mayflower in 1620. So there are things that unify all americans, rich or poor, just as in britain today, with brexit, there are things that unify all british people, regardless of whether they are derived from people who came with william the conqueror or whether they are west indians who came in the 19a05. Whether they are west indians who came in the 1940s. I am intrigued by the degree to which you have made a very conscious effort to look at societies across the piece, from the most developed, the United States, western europe, to what some would regard as much more traditional societies, in new guinea, a place you know very well. Your critics have said that, despite your best effo rts have said that, despite your best efforts not to be sort ofjudge mental, you have brought a western mindset, a notion of progress, a notion of where humanity is and should be going, to your work. Do you think you have . No. As for a notion of progress, notion of technological progress, ask my 32 year old son is what they think of their fathers view of technological progress, it will be quite negative. The issues that humanity faces today are issues of getting onto a sustainable economy, of dealing with climate change. They are not issues of so called progress. There is in fact a saying ina progress. There is in fact a saying in a textbook of economics written by an economist. In a world of finite resources, the only people who believe in the possibility of indefinitely continued growth are idiots and economists. So you absolutely do not feel that you project a notion of ever greater technological advance, ever greater standard of living for people around the world. Thats not your thing. Greater technological advance, no, i dont care about it. And i dont think that technological advance is essential for getting out of our current problems. But a better standard of living, absolutely, yes. But that is clearly not being delivered right now in the United States, in western europe. Actually, people are saying that the children are probably not going to be better off than their parents, and maybe we shouldnt assume that that is the norm anymore. Maybe we should assume, on the contrary, that given the very steep challenge we face with climate change, we cant expect ever greater standard of life, quality, economic quality of life. We actually have to, because a world in which there are gross discrepancies in standard of living is not stable. In this globalised world, 50 yea rs is not stable. In this globalised world, 50 years ago, it didnt make any difference to americans if they we re any difference to americans if they were desperately poor people out there, because they couldnt visit their anger on us. But now, in this globalised world, weve seen in world trade, we cannot live separately from the poor anymore. So iam separately from the poor anymore. So i am tempted to ask you, after all your travel and youre learning and your travel and youre learning and your writing, human beings face an existential challenge, the challenge ofa warming existential challenge, the challenge of a warming planet, which promises so of a warming planet, which promises so much devastation unless we address it. How are we going to address it. How are we going to address it . Are you optimistic we have the means, given all of your thinking about how nations cope with crisis . Nevermind nations, what about the planet as a whole . Im cautiously optimistic, despite all the bad things that i write about. The reason why im cautiously optimistic are that the problems threatening humanity today are problems of our own causation. We are not threatened by an unstoppable asteroid coming towards us, we are threatened by things that we are doing. Climate change caused by fossil fuels, unsustainable resource use, inequality, and so on. Since we are causing the problems, it is within our power to stop causing them. But by definition if they are planetary problems than it can only be by planetary cooperation that we can credibly attempt to resolve them. And what we have discussed in this interview with the rise of a form of properties, perhaps typified by donald trump, but many other nationalists around the world politics, perhaps typified by donald trump and many other nationalists around the world, which runs contrary to a focus on cooperation. That is true, and for me the most eliminating six pages of my book, andi eliminating six pages of my book, and i think for many readers, will be the six pages at the end of my chapter on the problems with the world, where i looked at the track record of the world in the last 50 yea rs record of the world in the last 50 years and saw the really in solving really difficult world problems. The ones that weve managed to deal with include delineating overlapping Economic Zones along the coast, providing a Legal Framework for minding the seabed that will satisfy landlocked countries and countries with the coastline. Dealing with chlorofluorocarbon release destroying ozone into the atmosphere. Double whole tankers. So the world has a successful track record of solving difficult problems in the last a0 or 50 years, so i am cautiously optimistic. Interesting, because let me frame this last question in personal terms. You said that when you had your twins, some 30 odd years ago, you began to care a very great deal more about the future of the world. So in that sense, with that in mind, what do you think the chances are of the world actually being sustainable beyond the next, say, 50 or 100 yea rs . Beyond the next, say, 50 or 100 years . My flip answer would be the chances are 51 . The reason why i say 51 is that i think the chances are better than even that we will succeed, but it is dicey, and it is going to take work. Particularly its going to take political will, which is the ingredient that is deficient at the moment. Jared diamond, plenty to think about. Thank you very much indeed for being on hardtalk. Thank you. Hello. One thing were certainly not short of at the moment is cloud across the uk, and through today, it will tend to stick around in many areas and bring some rain into the north. By the weekend, though, im hopeful well see more in the way of sunshine, and were going to see things significantly warming up for some. More on that in just a moment. A lot of warm air coming in from the atlantic in the next few days, but its coming up to the south of this frontal system. That will mean a lot of cloud around, some more persistent rain across the northern half of the uk in the short term, as well. But by the weekend, High Pressure will start to push in from the south, thin the cloud, and allow more sunshine. Today, though, most of us are going to be stuck with fairly grey skies, and across the northern half of the uk, some more persistent rain as the day goes on. Heavy at times, possibly, for Northern Ireland, the south west of scotland, parts of the north west of england, maybe the far north west of wales, too. To the far north of scotland, some sunshine for the northern isles. To the south, some brighter skies to the lee of high ground. Breezy day across the board, particularly gusty around western coasts and across the hills, quite murky in the west as well. Just 11 degrees there in aberdeen, but up to 23 if we get some brightness across the south east of england. 0vernight thursday into friday, looking at more wet weather across the northern half of the uk, but hopefully the cloud to the south perhaps thinning and breaking a little as the hours go by. High pressure trying to squeeze its influence further north. Certainly a mild enough start to friday, but once again, you can see the rain waiting to push into Northern Ireland and western scotland. And through the day, that frontal system continues to buckle to the north of the uk, so there will be more heavy downpours. To the south, the high is nearby, and that should allow the cloud to thin and break a little more, see a bit more in the way of sunshine, and temperatures creeping up across england and wales on friday, into the mid 205. Milder for aberdeen, but still a lot of cloud around, and some rain, but the heaviest of the rain for Northern Ireland and western scotland. But, by saturday, that high throws its influence further north. We should see more in the way of widespread sunshine and a pretty warm day even across the northern half of the uk, but to the south, we could get up to 27 degrees celsius in the south east of england. A very short spike of a heatwave, though. By sunday, the weather picture starts to become quite showery across the uk, and that will see our temperatures beginning to slide away. Still a pretty pleasant day to come, though, on sunday. In the sunny spells, there will be some warmth around, turning much chillier, though, next week. The screen this is the briefing im samantha simmonds. Our top story frantic rescue efforts in budapest as a cruise boat capsizes on the danube at least seven people are dead more than a dozen are missing. Entertainment giants, disney warn, they may not continue to film in the us state of georgia all because of new abortion laws. Chelsea are Europa League champions for the second time after thrashing arsenal, four one in azerbaijan. The driverless car that could hold the key to the older generation, retaining their freedom and independence. Were committed to safety. The boss of boeing apologizes to victims families to airlines and to the travelling public in his first interview since the two fatal crashes that have grounded