Hello, and a very warm welcome to dateline london. Im carrie gracie. And this week, we are going to be discussing a british plea on european security, south africa afterjacob zuma and the continuing absence of a government for Northern Ireland. My guests this week the guardian columnist polly toynbee, dr Vincent Magombe of africa international, the irish writer and broadcaster Brian Oconnell and Thomas Kielinger of germanys die welt. Welcome to you all. Thanks so much for being here. Now, our first story the british prime minister, theresa may, has urged the European Union to sign up to a security treaty to ensure that cooperation continues after britain leaves. Addressing the munich security conference, she warned that if the eus aim in the brexit talks was to avoid cooperation, then the security of all would be damaged. If the eus aim is to avoid cooperation, Thomas Kielinger, as a european, as a german, what do you make of that language . Ive long given up to try to ferret out what goes on in the mind of some of our leaders, and this phrase is totally puzzling because she seems to hold hostage the British Security involvement in europe to the outcome of the brexit talks, and she is in no way to speak that language. She needs to work for flexibility, for cooperation and so forth, and any intimation of trying to demand something or else is totally misplaced. She is on a very sticky wicket, as we know, and theres no consensus and jury, and were still waiting, as they said yesterday, for what the british people really want British Government, rather. Shes not frustrated, but curious. And so all else should be immaterial on the huge overriding issue will we get a mutually agreeable agreement on the brexit conditions . And until that has been sorted out, theres nowhere for her to threaten british cooperation, europe. Besides, the whole speech about security is beside the point. So its a distraction . Its a distraction, absolutely. And cart before the horse, if youre saying the brexit. Its putting the cart before the horse, very much so. One knows that defence and military issues are her best card, because britain is deeply involved in the defence of europe, but that is uncontroversial. We need some other answers. Shes talking about issues, which, at the moment, do not beleaguer, as it were, our mind of what needs to be done. Well, lets open that out a bit. Polly toynbee, i mean, obviously, the message that the uk is a big contributor to defence in europe and has a lot of expertise in counterterror, i suppose theresa may is trying to play to her strengths there. Security should be whats really easiest, because even the most extreme brexiters want to have a very Strong Security interpol relationship with the rest of europe and there isjust no doubt about that. But even there, she managed to throw a bit of a spanner in the works and accused them of being ideological ideological and then they are so pragmatic compared with us, the whole brexit conundrum is about british ideology, and to accuse, particularly in the context of security, to accuse Angela Merkel and the europeans of this is an absurdity and it bodes very ill. To be fair to her, she only said if you know, if if ideological. She didnt say they were ideological. Well, if. And the question is, has she, in this speech, said, which she might have done, that she is willing to accept the European Court of justice as an arbitrator on a treaty over security . And thats a step forward. It crosses over one of her red lines. If she doesnt accept that, its not going to happen. Shes going to have to accept, with any treaty on any issue, whatever, that there is always an International Adjudicator on any trade deal wherever in the world. And in europe, it happens to be the ec], and shes going to have to swallow that. And Brian Oconnell is another european looking in on this. Do you think the european arrest warrant, do you think europol, all of that, really can be taken for granted, low hanging fruit . We should be able to take it for granted. I mean, Peoples Security is paramount above trade and everything else. But i think the tone of the remarks probably betrays the level to which this relationship between britain and the eu counterparts in this negotiation have reached theyre really, really poor. And, as polly says, youve got to have an independent arbitrator and it probably will be the ec], and if it crosses one of her red lines, i think shes going to have to suck it up in the end, to be perfectly honest, because shell have no choice, because you cannot you cannot go into brexit without some form of deal on extradition, basic things like that, on cyber and all kinds of other stuff. Intelligence agencies are going to talk to each other anyway, whether or not there is a deal. But i think the tone actually is very illustrative of where things are at the moment. I want to hear from vincent because, obviously, your specialism is a different continent, a very complex patchwork security, economics, politics. As an outsider looking at all of this, what do you made of it . Well, im an outsider, but i live in a european country today, so it bothers me what happens. But i think we shouldnt be surprised at all and were going to hear a loss of this. These are mind games. I pity theresa may because shes like a tool that is being used by both sides. One day she will Say Something to appease the remainders, another day she will Say Something to appease the brexiteers. Not much will appease the remainers. Its nearly always to appease the brexiteers. I know. For example, right now, this is hardline brexit language, you know, which sometimes the europeans, as the problem, they are uncompromising and so on. But shes got to be careful because were talking about real lives, the whole country getting out of europe and needs to be friendly and work with europe afterwards. So, if one of these days, she can just oversay things that can end up giving britain a very bad deal. And, Thomas Kielinger, another thing weve seen in the past week was boris johnson, the foreign secretary, beginning that series of speeches that we now expect from British Government ministers. Did that go some way to healing any of this . Im afraid not. I mean, there was a basic contradiction in his speech where he says you have to be friendly, understand the remainers, they have legitimate concerns about our place in europe, but before he came to that phrase in his speech, he said it would be a betrayal if we reversed the brexit decision and theres no way we go anywhere else. So he was quite adamant that not to give and think inch, and so his offer to be nice to the remainers sounded false to me. Ithink, basically, the brexiteers are still in denial of the real problems that they face and everyone is now using words that eventually will not prevail anyway. So were in a moment when, asjournalists, we have a hard time taking any of this very seriously. All lot are what she said in munich, i think, is probably from home consumption anyway. Yes, the outcome will be a fudge, whatever. Borisjohnson had the political opportunity of his lifetime, if he really wanted to show that he was leadership material. He started off by saying, i want to reach out. I understand the grief and the pain of the a8 nearly half the country, and then give them nothing. It was hard brexit all the way through, out of single market, out of the Customs Union, absolutely no ecj. Not a mention of ireland, and no detail on anything. Well, well come back to ireland in a moment. But first, i want to go to an entirely different continent and look at the issues of south africa over the week, because after what seemed like days of prevarication, jacob zuma finally resigned as south africas president last week, saying he still didnt understand what hed done wrong. Cyril ramaphosa now takes over a country with huge problems to solve. Now, vincent, you watched these events closely, youve watched Cyril Ramaphosa closely. Is he the man to deal with the enormous challenges that south africa now faces . He is, but he may also not be that is the best way to summarise well, there are two things here. Of course, for the question itself, i think you need to see in two ways. One, what is it for south africa . The other is what are the implications for africa . In south africa, ramaphosa could succeed, but hes now a millionaire, hes somebody who came from the workers of background, hes a millionaire, he has worked with western business, capitalists, and succeeded. Now, he needs to radically reshape his own attitudes towards what involvement, what Economic Growth is in a country like south africa. Does he have a plan . Well, he has a plan to develop the economy, according to capitalist ideas, but he doesnt at the moment have a plan to share that wealth for the 90 or so of people in south africa. And if he doesnt, south africa is just on a volcano. Now, the other side, the other bit i was saying, for me, i think thats the more important. South africa is a democracy, we admire it, they will sort out a lot of their problems. Its the implications for africa. Look, i come from uganda and i belong to a Pro Democracy Group called free uganda. Were struggling to get democracy in my country. A leader who has been in powerfor 35 years, changing constitutions to be a life president. Now, if uganda, if sudan, rwanda and so many of these african countries trump uses a very horrible s word to describe them if we can learn from south africa about how democracy can help us resolve all problems, it would be so good because what is all this time, for us to convince him to step away so we can build our country. So that example of south africa needs to succeed in order to provide something for the rest of the continent . It needs to, but even if doesnt succeed, we, as ugandans, we, as africans from other countries, we are watching very carefully and we are telling people like the president , look, next is you. If you dont, and we dont have a democratic process in which we can peacefully change things, we are going back to the civil wars and battles and things of the past. Yes, so lets open that out. Brian, i dont know what you have made of events in south africa over the past week. I mean, we have the anc in a very interesting position, damaged its legitimacy in question and yet Going Forward to elections in two years time. I saw the tv pictures of Parliament Yesterday when he made his speech, his state of the union address, and there was a feeling of such support and everything. I thought that was incredible because i didnt think that when this final sort of week or two began, that he was going to be able to shift jacob zuma. It didnt look like he was going to. Ramaphosa one thing which hes very good at is hes a negotiator. He was very influential in getting. You know that game where you have a pile of sticks and you have to pull out out without the rest collapsing it was a bit like that. But its an amazing feat to get to, i think, where he did without a drop of blood being spilt so far. But he needs to now be a mediator between not between the political classes, the political leaders, but between the political classes up there, the elites, and the people. If he can resolve that issue. There is so much hope invested. If you think that most of the world will first have seen Cyril Ramaphosa when he held the microphone for Nelson Mandela as he came out, made his first speech as he came out ofjail, and that is a moment, you know, anybody who was alive at the time remembers, and he is now theyre as the man with carrying the beacon for mandelaism, and the question is whether he can rekindle that hope. I think this, for example, i must say that there is a dark stain in his own track record. Remember the marikana murders of the miners . He was one of the directors of the company there, and he took the side of the employers. He did apologise for that later. You apologise, but hes a political leader and he should have known better. Now, hes the president of south africa. Is he going to be on the side of the workers, miners . Or is he going to be on the side of business, you know, which is. Thomas, your answer to those questions . Polly reminded us of the moment when he held the microphone for mandela, which leads me to think that the future of south africa rests as much with what happens to the anc as a party, whether they can resuscitate their reputation of the irish people, or what happen in south africa. The two of them are essentially linked, you need to see whether there is, a, the possibility of the emergence of a new opposition party. Yeah, because that really matters because power corrupts, absolute power corrupts, absolutely, as we know, so you need a significant opposition to make a democracy work. You do need i think the anc, by itself, will try its best to clean out the stables as it were, but you still need a second Political Force in the country. Its very difficult in south africas case because so much rests on the mythological sort of charisma of anc, its very hard to replace that. If the anc mess up this one, within ten years, we wont get a shift of power. They may not be Strong Enough to take power. They could opportunistically combine their forces to fight the anc, and the anc will be in a very difficult position. Well, is that going to happen . That would strategically make sense. It depends what ramaphosa does. If he develops south africa the way he develops his business to succeed economically, but then radically share that wealth with the rest of the country, south africa will be better than britain laughs. Of a country that was seen as one of the great powerhouses. Crosstalk. On him to get tat economy back on track. Yep, unless he can do that and you say there is division whether he helps the workers or capitalism. Actually, he has to do both. Oh, yes, agreed. Hes got to kick start capitalism, too, to generate the wealth as well as redistribute it. I think the salient word in his state of the Union Message yesterday the word was accountability. If he is as good as his words, he will be accountable to the people, to the international watchers, and to the political elite in his country. And it is a very important word. Accountability is everything in a democracy. We will see if he is as good as his word. We will leave south africa now but will take that word accountability into our next story because Northern Ireland has been without its devolved government for 13 months now. Now, does this matter . Talks between the two largest parties the Democratic Unionist Party and sinn fein to restore the status quo have broken down. Westminster is reluctant to bring back direct rule, so what happens next . Brian, how serious is this political mess . I think it is very serious. I think it is more serious than the press attention it has received in british media, anyway. It could not have happened at a worse time, given what we were talking about earlier that is coming down the pipelines as regards brexit. But where do they go from here in the next. . Well, first tell us what happened. I mean, what was the problem . They got so close, as far as we understand it. They did they got close. What the talks fell to pieces over was an Irish Language act which sinn fein had been asking forfor years. It goes way back to the 2006 st andrews agreement and it is really about not who speaks irish but it is about recognition of the Irish Language on the same level as english in Northern Ireland. I mean, when you think about some of the enormous challenges that these two parties have overcome in the last 20 years to get where we are today, it is astonishing, in a way, to those you dont follow it daily, to think that we could fall down over an issue of language. I mean, people have been comparing it to well, they have a language act in scotland, have a language act in wales. Northern ireland is different. And it goes back to the good friday agreement in 1998 where they talk about parity of esteem and one of the sort of shibboleths of that is the recognition of the Irish Language, and scots gaelic on part of unionists. The problem is that there was a deal on the table between the dup and sinn fein. Ultimately, Arlene Foster the dup leader couldnt sell it to her grassroots because they were afraid of things like road signs in two languages and quotas for Civil Servants speaking irish which michelle oneill, her counterpart in sinn fein on the other side of the table said, well, the Draft Agreement doesnt even have that in it. So it is a question of trust and misunderstanding. Is it a blip . They will come back to this, they will have to, because they cannot move forward sinn fein will not allow power sharing to move forward until it is. Crosstalk. Personalities in a way because. Well, i was wondering, yeah that. I think not, i think the problem is profound in that it isnt clear that it is in either of their interest to actually run the province. In a time of extreme austerity, why do they want to be responsible for schools, for hospitals, for all of the everyday drudgery which it is to run a devolved government under westminster, where westminster has tightened the screw to such an extent you get nothing but blame . So there isnt really an incentive for either of them to want to govern. Brian, who is to blame for the breakdown of negotiations . Crosstalk. Whose fault is it . The dups or sinn feins . You could say its the dups because it raises questions about Arlene Fosters ability to run her party. That is what i said perhaps issue of personality. Crosstalk. You could say that sinn fein, you know, shouldnt maybe make such a thing of it and everything else, but it is important that the Irish Language act is important, but heres the thing to go back to what you say, the dup want direct rule because they can then tell the tory government at westminster what to do. Sinn fein, i think, see in brexit the best chance theyve had in a generation to push the United Ireland agenda in all. So there are much bigger forces in play than the question of the irish. Crosstalk. There is also the big issue of ireland because ireland and brexit. If the irish dont get what they need to get from these things in Northern Ireland. Come back to that in a moments instance but i want to pick with pollys point for a second, because you were saying maybe neither side actually want to be ruling right now in this devolved assembly, but where does that leave the British Government because Karen Bradley the Northern Ireland secretary says shes considering her options this weekend. What are her options . Her options are that she will have to take control. There is no other option. And they have to do more less what the dup says because the dup is propping up the may government. We have to remember about the dup that two thirds of its members are these extreme free presbyterians, the paisley founded cults. cult a bit of Strong Language i mean, thats all right i tend to refer to religions in general as cults. As long as you are across the board because otherwise, were going to get the blame on this. Im a humanist. It is the Largest Party in Northern Ireland. Its the Largest Party but only 0. 6 of people in Northern Ireland are actually free presbyterians, so they do represent something very extreme. In the same sense that sinn fein doesnt really represent nationalist views either. We have ended up with the two most extreme parties who dont represent in all. What people actually feel and where they stand. It is a misrepresentation of the real state of being. Very interesting, and what is so interesting as well, just in terms of the african angle, is of course Cyril Ramaphosa, who we were just talking about a moment ago, he once played a role in bringing sides together and inspecting ira arms dumps, so is there a role for outsiders at this point, do you think . I dont think he will have any opportunity. Im not talking about him, because hes busy, but is there role for any outsider in the irish question right now . Well, im sure European Union. But your opinion is dying down in terms of britain and so on, but as i say, you know, i think the role of ireland is really going to be a matter of it, but as an african i want to Say Something much more antagonistic. Oh, dont do that and this is this is the fact that, look, in africa, since independence and before independence the whole idea of our survival has always been fighting for our independence. And whether we had this Peace Process in Northern Ireland, which somewhat people mechanically together to sort of be run together still within the united kingdom, many africans always have whenever i talk about Northern Ireland, they ask me but why doesnt britain just leave Northern Ireland to go back to ireland and they become an independent country as part of ireland . I have never understood why not because that is a question. History. Of history, of colonialism. Crosstalk. But that history is what rules the world today. The rule is democracy. That if they voted to join the rest of ireland, wed be out in a flash. It is a majority in Northern Ireland. By consent. By consent. Crosstalk. Defined by history, because who took other people out there . So, this is. To make a majority that we talk about . Im not quite sure the south of ireland would be very happy with the idea of having to take on the du. Thats i mean, weve been there, and im glad we went there, but now we need but thats not a viewpoint which is going to solve the current situation, i guess, and it isnt a viewpoint that is one of those of the current players, unless i am very much mistaken. No, it is very much a viewpoint that is held, for example, by sinn fein. They always keep saying we stopped the fight but we havent stopped our struggle for independence. The most important part one of the most important parts of the good friday agreement was the south of ireland gave up, in its constitution, its demand and expectation that the north should join with the south. And that was a very important making of the peace. Yeah, i know. That both sides understood. Crosstalk. Around this table, we will all agree it is a democratic process . No, it is, and it has kept a peace, but i am just reminding people we need to think of the future that might. But going back to the paralysis of the democratic process now, thomas. If you hand back direct rule to westminster, that is the end of devolution. What is devolution about . It is about self government, regional self government. And if the parties concerned, the powers that be in Northern Ireland, find themselves unable to do that, what is the future of devolution in Northern Ireland . I dont think i think the British Government will be very, very, very reluctant to go back to direct rule and they will come under huge pressure. Crosstalk. From the Irish Government, massive pressure from the Irish Government, and at the moment, relations between the british and Irish Government are, you know, fixed on the whole issue of the border and the regulatory alignment and all that kind of thing and the Customs Union, and i dont think they will want to put direct rule in on top of all that. Thats fair enough, but what is the end of it . There is no direct rule. They are going to go back to they are going to leave it for a few weeks and theyll come back to the talks again and see if they can get some kind of agreement and theyll go back to that. The whole thing, the whole thing hanging over this, this, the breakup of his talks, is the issue of the border. And that is coming down the pipe so fast now that, you know, that one wonders whether they can get agreement before the brexit thing happens. I wonder, hmm. But at the moment, theyre going the Irish Government is absolutely adamant that the deal they came to last december about regulatory alignment, you know, having if britain wants to leave the Customs Union and wants to leave the eu, they will still have to have some form of it to keep the border open and they are adamant about that and that is the number one priority for dublin at the moment. And that takes us back to the beginning which is actually where we have the end so thank you all so much forjoining us today and thats all we have time for this week. Do join us again next week, same time, same place, but for now, thank you for watching. Good morning. It looks like the weather pattern and weather type will change significantly over the week ahead. The past few weeks we have had fast moving weather, a strong jetstream propagating across the atlantic with fluctuations between sunshine and its noted that everything slows down over the next few days, the jet stream will weaken and change position and get more undulations. And it is under one of those that we induce this area of High Pressure to build in the middle of next week. Something weve not had much of in the past few weeks. Not much sunshine around on sunday. We have some to the lee of high ground across parts of wales and the south eastern. Anglia got sunshine as well as north east scotland though for many of us, cloud rolled in and lot of cloud at the moment so no frost. A change of fortune on monday. Eastern scotland and Eastern England are drab and dreary with a lot of cloud, rain and drizzle. Dry and bright with a little sunshine especially in coastal areas and in Northern Ireland. Ahead of the second band of rain that arrives later in the day. Get some sunshine, 13 degrees in the east under the cloud and rain, only 7 9. Those two bands of rain joined forces to bring rain for england on tuesday, probably from humber southwards. Heavy for a while, easing off in the afternoon but a strong wind will push cloud through the midlands towards the west country. Further west and north in particular the air will be drier with more sunshine around and decent temperatures. Overnight clear skies, light winds and the temperatures will fall away. The rain peters out towards the south east. We will have some cloud at times across southern areas but elsewhere we will be back in the blue with frost in rural parts the first of a few frosty nights to come. A cold start on wednesday but brightening up with nice sunshine around for many. More in the way of cloud through the day at times, wales, the midlands and southern england with sunny skies further north. By this stage the wind are light everywhere and you get some sunshine it will not feel too bad, but this temperatures will be around 7 8 degrees or so. Some weather system threatened the coming from the north west and bring back the sort of weather that we have been seen but they will be held at bay by the blocking area of High Pressure so thursday and friday will still be drier. Temperatures reaching perhaps 13 degrees at the beginning of the week and that mild start will turn chilly, particularly at night but it is becoming dry. Welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. My name is nkem ifejika our top stories marching for their lives survivors of the Florida School shooting say theyll take their Gun Control Campaign to washington. Israel and iran trade insults and threats in a showdown at the munich security conference. A new russian doping scandal as an athlete at the Winter Olympics is suspected of failing a test. And the winner is. And the stars are out for the annual bafta awards well have the winners and those who missed out, later