Welcome to dateline london. Im carrie gracie. This week we discuss a british plea on european security, south africa after president zuma, and the continuing absence of a government for Northern Ireland. My guests this week are the guardian columnist polly toynbee, dr Vincent Magombe of africa international, the irish writer and broadcaster brian oconnell, and Thomas Kielinger of germanys die welt. Welcome to you all and thanks so much for being here. The british prime minister, theresa may, has urged the European Union to sign up to a security treaty to ensure that cooperation continues after britain leaves. Addressing the munich security conference, she warned that if the eus aim in the brexit talks was to avoid cooperation then the security of all would be damaged. If the eus aim is to avoid cooperation, Thomas Kielinger, as a european, as a german, what do you make of that language . I have long given up to try to figure out what goes on in the mind of our leaders and this phrase is totally puzzling. She seems to hold hostage the British Security involvement in europe to the outcome of the brexit talks, and she is in no way to speak that language. She must work for flexibility, cooperation and so on. Any intimation of trying to demand Something Else is totally misplaced. She is on a sticky wicket, as we know, and there is no consensus. We are still waiting, as Angela Merkel said yesterday, for what the british people really want, the British Government rather. She is not frustrated but curious. All else should be on the huge overriding issue, will we get a mutually agreeable agreement on the brexit conditions . Until that is sorted out there is no way for her to threaten british cooperation with europe. Besides, the whole speech about security is beside the point. So its a distraction . Absolutely a distraction. And cart before the horse. Very much so. The defence and military issues are her best card because britain is deeply involved in the defence of europe and that is uncontroversial. We need some other answers. When she is talking about issues at the moment do not beleague our mind of what needs to be done. Lets open it out. Polly toynbee, obviously the message that uk is a big contributor to defence in europe and has expertise on counterterror. I suppose theresa may is trying to play to her strengths. Security should be what is easiest. Even the most extreme brexiters want to have a very Strong Security interpol relationship with the rest of europe. No doubt about that. But even there she threw a spanner into the works and accuse of them of being ideological. They are so pragmatic compared with us, the whole brexit conundrum is about british ideology. To accuse, particularly in the context of security, to accuse Angela Merkel and the europeans of this is an absurdity and it bodes very ill. To be fair to her, she only said if ideological. She did not say they were ideological. Well, if. The question is, has she in this speech said, which she may have done, that she is willing to accept the European Court ofjustice as an arbitrator on a treaty over security . Thats a step forward. It crosses over one of her red lines if she does not accept that, it will not happen then. She must accept with any treaty on any issue whatever that there is always an International Adjudicator on any trade deal wherever in the world. In europe it happens to be the ec]. She must swallow this. And, brian oconnell, as another european looking in on this, do you think the european arrest warrant and europol and all that can be taken for granted, low hanging fruit . We should be able to take it for granted and Peoples Security is paramount above trade and everything else, but the tone of the remarks probably betrays the level to which this relationship between britain and the eu counterparts in this negotiation have reached, theyre really, really poor. As polly said, you must have an independent arbitrator and it will probably be the ec] and if it crosses one of her red lines i think she will have to suck it up in the end because shell have no choice. You cannot go into brexit without some form of deal on extradition, basic things like that, on cyber and all kinds of other stuff. Intelligence agencies will talk to each other anyway whether or not there is a deal. I think the tone is very illustrative of where things are at the moment. I want to hear from vincent because, obviously, your specialism is a different continent, a complex patchwork, security, economics, politics, as an outsider looking at this, what do you make of it . Im an outsider but i live in a european country today, so it bothers me what happens. I think we should not be surprised and we will hear a lot of this. What is happening is mind games. I pity theresa may because she is like a tool that is being used by both sides. One day she says something to appease the remainers and another day to appease the brexiters. Not much to appease the remainers, mostly people who voted brexit are appeased. Sometimes that is the problem. The lack of compromise. For the country getting out of europe, they need to work with europe. She can oversee things that end up giving britain a very bad deal. Another thing we have seenin very bad deal. Another thing we have seen in the past week was the foreign secretary beginning that series of speeches that we now expect from British Government ministers. Did that go some way to healing any of this . Im afraid not. There is a basic contradiction when he says remainders have legitimate concerns. Before he came to that in his speech he said it would be a betrayal if we reversed the brexit decision and there is no way we go anywhere else. He was quite adamant that not to give a single inch. His offer to be nice to remainers seemed falsterbo. I think those in favour of brexit are in denial about the problems they face and people are using brinkmanship, using words that eventually will not prevail anyway. Were ina eventually will not prevail anyway. Were in a moment asjournalists we re we have were in a moment asjournalists were we have a hard time taking any of this very seriously. A lot of what she said was for home consumption anyway. The outcome will bea consumption anyway. The outcome will be a fudge whatever. Boris johnson had the political opportunity of his lifetime if you wanted to show he was leadership material. He started off by saying, i want to reach out i understand the pain of the 48 , and then give them nothing. It was hard brexit all the way through, out of the single market, out of a Customs Union, absolutely nil ecj. And no detail on anything. Well come back to ireland in a moment, but first i wa nt to to ireland in a moment, but first i want to go to an entirely different continent and look at the issues of south africa. What after seemed like days of prevaricationjacobs resigned as president saying he still did not understand what he had done wrong. Cyrano poser now takes over a country with huge problems to solve. In south Africa Cyril Ramaphosa could succeed. He came from a workers background, a millionaire, he has worked with western businesses, capitalist, and have succeeded. He needs to radically reshape his own attitudes towards what Economic Growth is in a country like south africa. Does he have a plan . He has a plan to transform the economy according to capitalist ideas but does not have a plan to share that wealth for the 90 or so of people in south africa. And if he doesnt, south africa is any volcano. The other bit, for me, more important, south africa is a democracy, we admire it. It is the indications for africa. Democracy, we admire it. It is the indications forafrica. I democracy, we admire it. It is the indications for africa. I come from uganda, andi indications for africa. I come from uganda, and i belong to Pro Democracy Group called for uganda, we are struggling for democracy. The leader has been in power for 30 years. If uganda, democracy. The leader has been in powerfor 30 years. If uganda, if sudan, rwanda, zaire and some of these african countries, trump used a very horrible word to describe them, if we can learn from south africa about how democracy can help us africa about how democracy can help us resolve our problems, because all this time for us to convince our president to stay away so that we can build our country. So the example of south africa needs to succeed in order to provide something . And if it doesnt succeed, we from other countries are watching very carefully and were telling people like the president , look, next it is you. We dont have a democratic process in which we can peacefully change things, were going back to civil war and battle and things of the past. Brian i dont know what you have made of these events, we have the anc in a very interesting position, damaged its legitimacy and get Going Forward into elections in two years. Its legitimacy and get Going Forward into elections in two yearsli its legitimacy and get Going Forward into elections in two years. I saw the pictures of Parliament Yesterday when he made his speech, his state of the union address, and there was a feeling of such support. I thought that was incredible, because i didnt think that when this final week or two began that he was going to be able to shift jacob zuma. Week or two began that he was going to be able to shift jacob zuma. He is a negotiator. He was very influential, in Northern Ireland. That game where you have a pile of sticks and article one out of the other is collapsing, it was a bit like that. An amazing feat to get to, i think, like that. An amazing feat to get to, ithink, without like that. An amazing feat to get to, i think, without a drop of blood being spilled so far. But he needs to know being a mediator not between the political classes and political leaders, but between the political classes, the elites, and the people. If he can resolve that issue. There are so much hope invested in him. Most of the world will first have seen him when he held the microphone for Nelson Mandela as he came out and made his first speech asa came out and made his first speech as a gym out ofjail. And that is a moment that anybody who was alive at the time remembers. And he is now there is the man carrying the beacon for mandela s ideas. And the question is can he rekindle that help. Remember the murders of the miners, he was one of the directors of the company. And he took the side of the employers. He did apologise for that later. He is a political leader and shouldve known better. Now he is president , is he on the side of the workers, the miners, or the side of business . We are reminded at the moment of when he microphone for mandela, and it leads me to think the future of south africa rests as much on what happens with the future of the anc, their repeat nation, the two of them are essentially linked. We need to see whether there is a possibility of the emergence of a new opposition party. That matters, because power corrupts, so you need a significant opposition to make democracy work. Indeed. The anc by itself will try it best to clean out the stables, as it best to clean out the stables, as it were, but you still need a second Political Force in the country. And it is difficult in south africa bus so it is difficult in south africa bus so much rests on the political charisma of the anc. If the anc messes up charisma of the anc. If the anc messes up this one coming within ten yea rs messes up this one coming within ten years will get a shift of power. The opposition may not be Strong Enough to ta ke opposition may not be Strong Enough to take power, but the good opportunistically combine forces. To take power, but the good opportunistically combine forcesm that going to happen . That would strategically make sense. It depends what the new president does. If you reform south africa though he reforms business, to succeed economically, but then radically shares of wealth with the rest of the country, south africa will be somewhat better. It was seen as one of the great powerhouses, and unless he can. Unless he can do that. You say there is a division between whether he helps the workers or capitalism, he has to do both. He has to kick start capitalism to generate wealth as well. No word at accountability in his address. Is he is as good as his words, he will need to be accountable to the people, to the international watchers, and political elites in his country. And accountability is everything any democracy. We will see whether he is as good as his word. We leave south africa now but ta ke word. We leave south africa now but take the word accountability into oui take the word accountability into our next story. Because Northern Ireland has been without its devolved government for 13 months. Does this matter . Talks between the two largest parties, the dup and sinn fein, to restore the status quo, have broken down. Westminster is reluctant to bring back direct rule, so what happens next . How serious is this political mess . think it is very serious. It is more serious than the press attention it has received in the british media anyway. It couldnt have happened at anyway. It couldnt have happened at a worse time, given what we were talking about earlier, regarding brexit. But where do they go from here . Firstly, what was the problem . They got close, but what the talks fell to pieces over was an Irish Language act, which sinn fein had been asking forfour language act, which sinn fein had been asking for four years. It goes way back, and it is about not who speaks irish, but it is about recognition of the Irish Language on the same language as english in Northern Ireland. When you think about some of the morris challenges these two parties have overcome in these two parties have overcome in the last 20 years to get to where we are today, it is astonishing in a way to those who dont follow a daily to think that we could fold down over issue of language. People have been comparing it to, they have a language act in scotland and wales, but Northern Ireland is different. It goes back to the good friday agreement with the top about parity of esteem. And one of the shibboleths of that is the recognition of the Irish Language and scotts garlic. Scots gaelic. There was a deal on the table between the dup and sinn fein. Dup leader could not sell it to our grassroots because they were afraid of things like road signs in two languages and quarters for civil serva nts languages and quarters for Civil Servants speaking irish, which are counterpart in sinn fein on the other side of the table said, the d raft other side of the table said, the Draft Agreement doesnt even have that in it. So to question of trust, is ita that in it. So to question of trust, is it a blip, will they get their . There will have to come back to this, because they cannot move forward. Sinn fein will not allow power sharing to move forward. ita power sharing to move forward. it a problem of personalities, in a way . I think not. It a problem of personalities, in a way . Ithink not. Ithink it a problem of personalities, in a way . I think not. I think the problem is profound, it is not clear it is in either of their interest to run the province. In a time of extreme austerity, why do they want to be responsible for schools, hospitals, all the everyday drudgery which it is to run it evolved government under westminster where westminster has tightened the screws to such an extent you get nothing but blame. There is not really an incentive to either of them to want to govern. Brian, whos to blame for the of negotiations . Is the dup sinn fein . You could say it is the dup because it raises questions about arlene fosters ability to lead her party. That is why i say personalities coming here. But you could say that sinn fein maybe should not make such a big thing of it and everything else. But the Irish Language act is important. But heres the thing, to go back to what you say, the dup want to direct rule because they can then tell the tory government at westminster what to do in that direct rule. Sinn fein see in brexit the best chance they have had ina in brexit the best chance they have had in a generation to push the agenda of united are in. There are much biggerforces agenda of united are in. There are much bigger forces and agenda of united are in. There are much biggerforces and play. Agenda of united are in. There are much bigger forces and play. Also the big issue of ireland, because ireland and brexit. If the irish dont get what they need to get from these things in Northern Ireland. We will come back to that in the moment, but i want to pick up on pollys point. You said maybe neither side wants to be ruling right now. But where does that leave the British Government . The Northern Ireland secretary said she is considering our options. What are oui considering our options. What are our options . She will have to take control. There are is no other option. They will more or less have to do what the dup says because the dup is propping up the theresa may government. We have to remember about the dup that two thirds of its members are extreme free presbyterians, the ian paisley founded cult. cult a bit of Strong Language i mean, thats all right i tend to refer to religions in general as cults. As long as you are across the board because otherwise, were going to get the blame on this. Im a humanist. It is the Largest Party in Northern Ireland. Its the Largest Party but only 0. 6 of people in Northern Ireland are actually free presbyterians, so they do represent something very extreme. In the same sense that sinn fein doesnt really represent nationalist views either. We have ended up with the two most extreme parties who dont represent in all. Crosstalk. What people actually feel and where they stand. It is a misrepresentation of the real state of being. Very interesting, and what is so interesting as well, just in terms of the african angle, is of course cyril ramaphosa, who we were just talking about a moment ago, he once played a role in bringing sides together and inspecting ira arms dumps, so is there a role for outsiders at this point, do you think . I dont think he will have any opportunity. Im not talking about him, because hes busy, but is there role for any outsider in the irish question right now . Well, im sure European Union. But your opinion is dying down in terms of britain and so on, but as i say, you know, i think the role of ireland is really going to be a matter of it, but as an african i want to Say Something much more antagonistic. 0h, dont do that and this is this is the fact that, look, in africa, since independence and before independence the whole idea of our survival has always been fighting for our independence. And whether we had this Peace Process in Northern Ireland, which somewhat people mechanically together to sort of be run together still within the united kingdom, many africans always have whenever i talk about Northern Ireland, they ask me but why doesnt britain just leave Northern Ireland to go back to ireland and they become an independent country as part of ireland . I have never understood why not because that is a question. History. Of history, of colonialism. Crosstalk. But that history is what rules the world today. The rule is democracy. That if they voted to join the rest of ireland, wed be out in a flash. It is a majority in Northern Ireland. By consent. By consent. Crosstalk. Defined by history, because who took other people out there . So, this is. To make a majority that we talk about . Im not quite sure the south of ireland would be very happy with the idea of having to take on the du. Thats i mean, weve been there, and im glad we went there, but now we need but thats not a viewpoint which is going to solve the current situation, i guess, and it isnt a viewpoint that is one of those of the current players, unless i am very much mistaken. No, it is very much a viewpoint that is held, for example, by sinn fein. They always keep saying we stopped the fight but we havent stopped our struggle for independence. The most important part one of the most important parts of the good friday agreement was the south of ireland gave up, in its constitution, its demand and expectation that the north should join with the south. And that was a very important making of the peace. Yeah, i know. That both sides understood. Around this table, we will all agree it is a democratic process . No, it is, and it has kept a peace, but i am just reminding people we need to think of the future that might. But going back to the paralysis of the democratic process now, thomas. If you hand back direct rule to westminster, that is the end of devolution. What is devolution about . It is about self government, regional self government. And if the parties concerned, the powers that be in Northern Ireland, find themselves unable to do that, what is the future of devolution in Northern Ireland . I dont think i think the British Government will be very, very, very reluctant to go back to direct rule and they will come under huge pressure. Crosstalk. From the Irish Government, massive pressure from the Irish Government, and at the moment, relations between the british and Irish Government are, you know, fixed on the whole issue of the border and the regulatory alignment and all that kind of thing and the Customs Union, and i dont think they will want to put direct rule in on top of all that. Thats fair enough, but what is the end of it . There is no direct rule. They are going to go back to they are going to leave it for a few weeks and theyll come back to the talks again and see if they can get some kind of agreement and theyll go back to that. Crosstalk. The whole thing, the whole thing hanging over this, this, the breakup of his talks, is the issue of the border. And that is coming down the pipe so fast now that, you know, that one wonders whether they can get agreement before the brexit thing happens. I wonder, hmm. But at the moment, theyre going the Irish Government is absolutely adamant that the deal they came to last december about regulatory alignment, you know, having if britain wants to leave the Customs Union and wants to leave the eu, they will still have to have some form of it to keep the border open and they are adamant about that and that is the number one priority for dublin at the moment. And that takes us back to the beginning which is actually where we have the end so thank you all so much forjoining us today and thats all we have time for this week. Do join us again next week, same time, same place, but for now, thank you for watching. Goodbye. It isa it is a fine day across many parts, dry weather around, and variable parts of sunshine. Eastern parts seen parts of sunshine. Eastern parts seen the best sunshine. This picture comes from suffolk, beautiful blue skies there. More cloud for the west and thats the way it looks through the afternoon. Any of us dry, the best sunshine in the east. Clouding over, with rain later in the west. A frontal system working in from the west, bringing some mild air as well asa west, bringing some mild air as well as a little bit of rain. High pressure holds on towards the east. Things looking dry for much of the country. The best sunshine is for northern and eastern scotland. And even under the cloud of it for the west could be some holes in the cloud. Some sunny spells breaking through, and temperatures getting into double figures for many of us. Rain moving into Northern Ireland, and that will arrive in western scotla nd and that will arrive in western scotland and north west england and wales. It will drift eastwards overnight. A cloudy and damp night, and not as cold as recent night. A frost free start demanding but cloudy and murky first thing. Monday is dominated by this front, a weak affair as is dominated by this front, a weak affairasa bumped is dominated by this front, a weak affair as a bumped into this area of high pressure, it brings a bit of rain but also milder air. You can see the colours on the map for monday. Colder air not far away. Moreover player later in the week. Monday is further cloudy, most of the rain in eastern scotland and england. A few gaps in the cloud for wales and Northern Ireland, and bridges could get up to 13 in belfast. Still mild, murky with rain around on monday. 0n belfast. Still mild, murky with rain around on monday. On tuesday the ringleaders for a time for parts of eastern england, east anglia, and towards ken. Much of the country having a fine day. Sunshine from western scotland, Northern Ireland and wales. Temperatures hitting double figures. Colder in the east, and cold easterly winds continue through the week. They will blow in from scandinavia and northern europe, importing colder air. We will step back into winter rather than looking forward to spring. Things turn colder through the week, but a lot of dry and fairly sunny weather to be enjoyed. Good afternoon. The husband of murdered mpjo cox has resigned from two charities he set up in her memory after allegations of Sexual Harassment were made public. Brendan cox denies assaulting a woman at Harvard University in 2015, but admits to inappropriate behaviour while working for save the children. This morning jo coxs sister has said that the family will continue to support brendan and that their priority is on caring for the couples children. Charlotte gallagher reports. The murder ofjo cox by far right