Welcome to dateline london, im jane hill. This week we are looking at new relations between france and the uk we ask whether germanys mrs merkel will get a deal to form a government and remain chancellor, and again we will be discussing irans current ambitions. My guests this week mina al oraibi, the editor of the Abu Dhabi Based the national, the times columnist david aaronovitch, the author, Thomas Kielinger of germanys die welt, and marc roche, former london correspondent of le monde, who now writes for the magazine le point. Welcome to you all. Lets discuss france and britain, first. Emmanuel macron came on his First Official visit to britain this week. Among the agreements reached between the french president and british prime minister, theresa may committed to spending an extra £41; million on Border Security in calais. France said they would lend us the bayeux tapestry in a few years time. With brexit inevitably the backdrop to this meeting, mr macron said the two countries were making a new tapestry together. See what he did there . Marc, what did you make of this meeting, a new entente cordiale . How did you read it . Well, the bayeux tapestry, you give a big gift for love, they say, in french and a small gift forfriendship. It symbolised this meeting, better military cooperation, better arrangement on calais. And help in the fight against terrorism. As you say, the background was brexit. Then, president macron was very clear. Because the usual british tactic is divide to rule, the eu is united. And of course, forfinancial service, you want to access the Single Market, you pay for it, you accept free movement. And you accept the court ofjustice. And that, of course, that is unacceptable for the brexiteers in her government. So lets hope that after that agreement, president macron hes not hostile to the city, he is a former banker will accept a sort of bespoke agreement which is neither canada, nor norway, something new, so we can turn the page of brexit. Hes not hostile to the city, but plenty of people have sat round this table in the last few weeks somewhat chuckling at the way that france is trying to encourage british Financial Institutions to relocate to beautiful paris. Absolutely. But france isnt the only one, frankfurt is doing that, amsterdam, dublin. The problem is, very few institutions will leave the city because, in the end, london can continue to be financing europe, although being out of the eurozone and being out of brexit. I dont think that will be the problem. But, you know, of all the capitals, why not paris . To put a few banks there. Thomas. Thats a very nice french perspective. But to go back to the bayeux tapestry, it is a wholly diversionary tactic by france. He plays on this predilection for history in england, 1066 and all that everyone knows not were not worrying about 1066, we are talking about 2019, 2021, that is the salient point to discuss. So why this bayeux tapestry thing . And marc is quite right, the biggest conundrum is continuing to operate 80 of British Economic output is invested in financial services. Yes. To have that all cut off, i wonder what price britain will continue to pay or want to pay, in order to preserve this big advantage. At the moment, it looks pretty much impossible. If you leave the union, the eu, you cant operate in the eu without passporting rights. So how do you solve this conundrum . Macron didnt help. He kept saying, in accordance with the position of Jean Claude Juncker and donald tusk, no, you cant cherry pick if you leave, you leave but i wonder if there is not some wiggle room. Because the eu is in need of money, and britain leaving will leave them destitute of a big slice of money. And if britain were to continue to want to pay into the coffers of the eu, which is a small price anyway, considering the huge advantage of the Financial Markets for the british economy, might not brussels reconsider this absolute adamant position . No, impossible. If britain is willing to cough up 11 billion euros every year. There are the red lines of mrs may no court ofjustice. She has said it. And Emmanuel Macron has given an interview to the bbc this week, and reiterating exactly the point that you are both making. We are still a couple of months away from the final deal. And i predict certain u turns here or there, both in brussels and london, in order to not come to a cliff edge resolution of the brexit issue, which would be catastrophic for britain. What was interesting about macrons visit, is that in addition to brexit and the Single Market future, there was this focus on the bilateral relationship that we speak less of now. So the importance of frances relationship with the uk, and whether that is military support. Britain saying they will support frances efforts in africa, not having troops on the ground but actually sending helicopter support and air support is quite important, to show that there are areas we will Work Together on. So i think the tone was important at this meeting, how can we get beyond the bickering and being angry at the fact that brexit is happening . And trying to find points of convergence. And on the bayeux tapestry, what i think is important is looking at macron, how hes forging his presidency and diplomacy. The use of cultural diplomacy. In abu dhabi we have seen that, the louvre, ten years in the planning coming to the fore. Also, his focus on the french language, and wanting to project frances position. We see different western countries, whether its the uk, the us and germany in a pickle. France is saying we are here, strong, we will project our presence. Thats interesting did you read it that way, the visit, david . Probably not the first to have coined the term macronise. Probably someone else did it as well. We were macronised. What does that mean . Cultural diplomacy . Certainly cultural diplomacy. Macron understands what a lot of british people have forgotten that we live in an inter dependent world. That interdependency wont stop if we leave the European Union. It carries on. He has an idea about how the world might be shaped in the period after that happens. And there are certain things that britain and france need to do together in that world. It would be a good thing to have good long term relationships with britain. But the other thing they emphasised, which is really sad for me, as a british person, it symbolised the loss of british influence in the world. It really did. Yes, of course, they want good relationships with us, etc, but there is emanuel macron, maybe because Angela Merkel has etc, but there is Emmanuel Macron, maybe because Angela Merkel has done her 12 years, and we will come back to her later, there might be another german leader, will be shaping the continent and the world and we wont be. That was brought home to me. We will get the bayeux tapestry to remind ourselves, because we have decided as a country. And we have always been prone to this, to live with one foot in the past always. The french have been prone to this as well quite often. The germans, with very good reasons, have made asundering with the past. But we face a situation and a future whereby we wont be able to exert anything like so much influence about what happens. Its interesting, you take us neatly onto our next point you mentioned Angela Merkel. This is a really fascinating weekend in that regard. Sunday is a crucial day for german politics and, some argue, for eu stability more broadly. Delegates from the social democrats, the spd, will vote on whether to enter formal Coalition Talks with chancellor merkels bloc. Nearly four months after the countrys election, Angela Merkel has still not managed to form a government and many in the spd are anxious about entering another coalition, given their vote was eroded in september, after four years as the junior partner. Thomas, Martin Schulz has been travelling the country trying to sell the idea, trying to rally the support in the run up to sundays vote. You have given a good introduction into the problems of the spd, wondering whether they will continue in government with merkel and they might disappear from the screen as it were as an independent political identity. Actually, looking at germany now, if she was an ongoing concern, business, it would be time to issue a profit warning, frankly, about the health of their political culture. Because the problem the conservative party has, merkel and her cohorts, they have gradually destroyed conservatism in germany for the purpose of forming coalitions. Getting more and more left wing, left of centre ideas on board to the extent that nowadays you rather have a situation where theres very little difference between the two major parties. One of the reasons we keep returning such indistinct Election Results is that people cannot differentiate between these two parties. They have become so much a mishmash of general ideas. The conservative party has become somewhat left of centre. The punishment is there. They scored 33 in the election. They are about to disappear, already down to 20. Latest polls say they are sinking evermore. The country is at a standstill, politically. It seems that theres nobody left to want to govern germany ina sense. On the other hand, she is being administered perfectly well. The economy is growing and expanding. People dont feel the absence of a government in their daily lives at all. Which is probably an indictment against, why do we need politicians in the first place when the administrators are doing the job so well for themselves . Schools are being taught, taxes are being collected. And all the other efficiencies that modern states have are in place. It is a profit warning. Germany is needed for future decisions to be taken about europe. France wants germany to be there. What you need, really, is a very strong germany for europe. At the moment, Emmanuel Macron is taking all of the weight of europe because he is saying we need to speed. But europe doesnt want to have all this agenda taken by brexit. There are other things, refugees, the crisis in the eurozone, that could come back. Theres the question of poland, theres the question of defence. There is a question of foreigners first and all that. At the moment it is all blocked, the main country is blocked politically. There is urgency for a government in germany. Whether it is weak or strong, it doesnt matter. You called for a strong one, that is the point, i dont think you will see one emerge in the near future. It will be viable in certain functions, economic and otherwise, but it wont be in a position to really represent the country as a whole because there is such a wrangling going on between the two main parties. This could be called kielingers paradox, suggesting germans want change but they dont want any change. They want politicians to suggest change without any reality of change, because actually their lives are fairly good. The danger for europe and for others out of germany in the last 30 years has essentially not been any kind of extremism but has been a retreat by germany into parochialism. Stop the world, i want to get off yeah. As long as industry is working, as long as we have good employment and so on, we dont want to get too much involved in the business of how things are structured. The paradox is, though some people in britain would hate it, it is required that germany does step up to a leadership role in europe. The economy you cant take all the benefits of the economy of the European Union and then say, but were going to leave the business of how europe is going to be to be to others. That is one of the fears there is a complacency, well, the economy is doing fine, we dont need a government. It is complacency, to have weak leadership and weak government. It is not ok. After a while it starts to erode structure that people now thinkjust ticked on as normal and thats not true. Even if Angela Merkel is able to form this coalition and they go ahead with the government, people are already talking about possibly the need for early elections in two years. If they have a government that is perceived as weak and unstable you will have elections within two years, it is hard to make long term decisions. We take for granted the fact that we have had merkel around since 2005. 12 years four british prime ministers later and she is still here. The idea that stability. What do i perceive to be the development . There will come a time when people are so fed up with the traditional parties that there will be an emergence of a new party like in france. Macron. Macron showed it. Austria had a similar development. The current powers that be no longer deliver the goods, frankly. As you say, people coast along, and all the traditional sort of activities of daily life are unimpaired, you have a sense that your country is not pulling its weight on the world stage. And something needs to give. But that is divided between west and east. East with afd, the extreme right wing, which is a new problem in germany. Well, fascinating, the vote is on sunday. If that goes through it has to go to wider membership. There is a long way to go and we will certainly be talking about that again. Thank you. Lets move further afield. The head of irans revolutionary guards, mohammad ali jafari, declared this week that he can now drive from tehran via baghdad all the way to beirut, which shows how successful irans involvement in iraq and syria has been. Mina, what does this tell us . Thats quite a boast, he was boasting. But alss quite a frustration for ordinary citizens that would never feel safe to go from tehran by car on thatjourney. All the lives that have been lost but also all of the fears, whether its kidnapping, intimidation, if anyone else tried to make a similar route. That says something that they control, the Iranian Revolutionary guard, through themselves or proxies, militias they support, that now boast they can clear the roads for them. It is very worrying. We talk about the importance of nation states and government. If you have a leader of an armed wing in iran saying they can traipse through these arab countries with very little push back, its hugely concerning. This idea of a land corridor from iran all the way to the borders of israel were things that people would talk about five or six years ago, everyone would be like nonsense, conspiracy theorists of the arab world, but they have made that happen. Partly because of the fight against isis, which was important. The defeat of isis was very important for the people who suffered from them and also for the world to move forward. But at what cost in terms of what comes in its place . That vacuum should be filled by the National Army in iraq, but in syria, the problem continues to fester. And so, while iranian troops or militias can go through syria and into beirut, what state have we left syria in . Whether it is the turks bombing from the air certain areas, the russian continued air campaign and a lack of clarity to how syria can be put back together. Increasingly worrying. Again, we see, we talk about elections and coalitions forming, we see what is happening in iraq at the moment. As we look to the elections in may coming up. And you have different armed groups wanting to go into parliament and say that they are now valid, even though certain groups are considered terrorist organisations by the us and other entities. Going forward, what the world really needs to Pay Attention to is if you are having these armed groups controlled out of tehran, what is the long term strategic aim of iran . I think that raises eyebrows. And what is the long Term Strategic Alliance between iran and russia . If you want to proceed on this route without any hindrance all the way to beirut, then it begs the question, what about the russians . Do you have an ongoing policy agreement between those countries, or what is the relationship between the two . It is a marriage of convenience between russia and iran and in large part in syria. Of course, the syrians have paid a heavy price for this. They continue to pay a heavy price for this. The russians dont want to see iraq and lebanon and syria weakened, and having the iranians control that in the long term, their strategic aim is not to have a theocracy that calls for the exporting of the revolution, that continues to be part of irans constitution. Long term, you imagine they are going to hit troubles. It would be convenient for russia to keep the president assad regime in check in syria. Except for the russians, there is the fact that the main issue is now getting the european sanction out. By getting out of the region and concentrating on trying to solve ukraine and crimea and all that, they can get the sanction out. Election coming up for president putin, the economy is not doing well, oil and commodities are low. So, they want to get out of that. This struck me as a piece of classic hubris, i bet he would not drive with a big letter x on his car for a start. Quite a few people would take him out from the air and would drone him as soon as look at him. Second thing, during the recent iranian protests, one of the things that people were spontaneously protesting about was the amount of money and loss that was incurred by irans adventures abroad and so on. So, there is the question about its sustainability at home. One tends to see iran purely as an external power but it has a very powerful set of internal politics, which acts as some kind of limitation to them as well. There were talks this week in brussels with the focus, again, as we discussed many times, but the focus very much on the nuclear deal. That is my point, that is where other nations are focused on that, perhaps to the exclusion of all else. Well, european nations. Indeed. Of course. You are thinking the nuclear deal is nice and tidy if you are in that region. You rightly raise this point, saying that the nuclear deal alone fixes these problems is absolutely incorrect. That was one of the fatal mistakes of the obama administration, they were able to say that the nuclear deal is separate from these other dynamics. But where is the money coming to allow for this military might and the paying of militias . Whether its militia men from afghanistan, lebanon or iraq, largely that came from as the sanctions were being lifted from the nuclear deal. So it is interconnected. The big question Going Forward is that people want iran to stabilise but you have had this internal semi revolt that was put down. Where the eus position on it was that there are some recent events in iran, but lets talk about the nuclear deal. And not even putting out a voice to champion hundreds of people who are now in prison. Because they went down to protest. It is important with the new regime in saudi arabia and the modernisation going on, that now saudi arabia is the only counterweight to iran. We should support them. I thought i would never say that you should always qualify it when you do say it. But i think that saudi arabia is now the only counterpoint to iran. But i think a lot of arab countries in the region see the problems with irans projection of military power. People say it is natural, iran is a large country to have influence. This is not about influence, this is having armed groups on the ground challenging peoples ways of life. Saudi arabia, yes, you have a coalition of arab countries that are together, trying to figure out how they face this and we have the repercussions of that, whether it is in lebanon or iraq or yemen. Yes. Because military power is being used, you get pulled into all these losses that the people of the region suffer. You are right in that saudi arabia can be a counterweight, but they are not alone. Many people want to say that as well. Projecting power in an area which is already suffering from huge instability, that is not going to lead to anywhere other than making it more unstable than it already is. Any prediction about the middle east, there is so much emerging, so much embryonic situations. What kind of iraq are we going to see at the end of isis . What kind of syria will emerge . Nobody has an answer. Projecting military power into this cauldron is futile. To your point about syria. I mean, still huge activity on the border with turkey. Huge activity on the border. The continued flow of refugees, one of the pressing things is that you see very few people in europe talk about the refugee issue beyond this was a crisis that came to your shores and now we have to push back. Reality is that we have just heard of a family of nine syrians freezing to death in lebanon because theyve had no support. People have continued to die and suffer. This refugee crisis continues to fester. You have the turks also looking at close to 2 million, 1. 5 million syrians there and their future is unclear. That is humanitarian and a security risk. And the prospect of turkeys military interventions getting stronger against the kurds. Which could lead to another refugee crisis and another flow. And so on. The thing continues to fester. Again, what you want to see, we talked about leadership. What we really require to see in the world is a greater degree of foresight and leadership amongst the west, and some of the other countries, about how were going to deal with this. Its been reactive. Its not europe, the middle east, the us is the only country that can do it. And at the moment, the us is not there. I actually think that the uk and france and germany, they play instrumental roles but they are also uninterested. Partly because they are so caught up in brexit, but also thinking it is only for the us to play the role but the vacuum isnt filled by us and europe, it will be filled by russia and iran and others. Europe is afraid of the refugees, of course, that is the main issue for europeans. All of the populist right wing and extreme right is coming from that. Europe has a tendency, lets leave them in turkey, which is not a solution. David is right in detecting a yearning for new leadership. Why are these things becoming so popular . I am a bit worried about the renaissance of nationalism. You have to remember the kind of era in which he became a leader, it made him look strong. He was a fierce antagonist. Like germany at the time. Do we want another churchill . Do we want the re emergence of that sort of power struggle that he faced . So, no. It is more difficult for a modern leader to burnish a profile because the world is so much in chaos. And so unpredictable. He would not have known how to deal with these other problems we have been discussing here for weeks and weeks. So i hedge my bets about new leadership. In the region, we have very interesting new leadership, especially as mark mentioned. It is very interesting to see how they see this need to own what is going on in the region. Yes. There is a good topic for another dateline for sure. Do we need another churchill . Thank you to all of you. Were back next week, same time. Thanks for being with us. Bye. Hello there. For many stepping outside on monday morning, the weather is going to feel very different. Still some potentially icy stretches across north west england but otherwise, milder day to come on monday. Some shows up to the north west, quite breezy, particularly through the morning. To the day, largely fine weather, those temperatures feeling much milder. 6 11 degrees. South westerly Winds Continuing to bring the milder air in our direction. Some outbreaks of rain splashing into western areas, perhaps turning misty and murky as well. Thames between three and nine degrees. Looking ahead to tuesday, likely to be the mildest day of the week. There will be some outbreaks of rain at times, it will start to turn a little bit cooler, particularly in North Western areas as we head towards the end of the week, but not nearly as cold as it has been. That is all for now. Welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. My name is duncan golestani. Our top stories the us shutdown stand off continues. Senators postpone a vote that could have seen the reopening of the federal government. Turkeys advance troops cross into syria, targeting kurdish groups whod been fighting the so called islamic state. Turkey is clearly committed militarily to this operation and has widespread Popular Support here, but if the turks suffer losses or civilian casualties grow, that could change. At least 18 people are now known to have died in saturdays attack on a hotel in kabul. Most of them were foreigners. Leaving the biggest till last more than a Million People attend an open air mass as the pope ends his tour of peru