And former editor of the jewish chronicle. Agnes poirier of marianne, the french magazine. Nesrine malik, who analyses arab affairs. And michael goldfarb, the american journalist and podcaster. Welcome to you all. In the year since he was elected us president , Donald Trumps supporters have explained his sometimes contradictory positions by advising, watch what he does, not what he says. Well, this week words and actions were as one. During the election campaign, mr trump said he would recognise jerusalem as israels capital, and on wednesday he did just that. On friday, palestinian protestors responded with what they called a day of rage an appropriate description that captures both their anger and their impotence. Ned, he has broken out of this position that has been established policy, whether democrats or republicans have been in the white house, for decades now. Could he encourage others to do the same . No, in a word. I would be astonished. Words and actions where the same, but it is trump musical theatre. Despite this statement, he also signed the six month waiver, as did his predecessors to avoid actually having to move the American Embassy any time soon tojerusalem. His argument is they would have to establish a new building and all the rest of it. And the real problem, like so much in the Trump Administration, it has nothing to do with foreign policy. It was a petulant, superficial decision, ticking a box, driven by domestic, political considerations. It is almost an act of diplomatic arson. You can argue how great will the damage be . There is some reason to feel happy, that is the wrong word, a little bit relieved more people havent died as a result of the inevitable violence that followed this. It is also true, if you are looking for silver linings, there wasnt much of a Peace Process to destroy any more. But here is what matters. In order for short term political gain and particularly with evangelical voters in southern United States, who will vote next week on whether to elect a credibly accused paedophile to the United States senate. That is the world we live in now. But he has put americas fingers on the political scales inside the middle east, in a way, quite rightly, both parties were wary of doing. What he has done, he has weakened the shrinking number of credible arab leaders who still wanted and believed in a two state negotiated solution. People like King Abdullah ofjordan, and the palestinians. He has emboldened and people like hamas, iran, arguably isis, alqaeda spin offs. So whatever gradually reducing prospects there were four prospects there were for a negotiated two state solution, seem much worse. Michael, that is the case for the prosecution, is there any case for the defence . No. I dont know if there is a case for the defence. After a year we can say that Decision Making is not. It means nothing. A decision was made. Is it possible that decision changes the game . If you look at the players, it is the same people. 50 years since the occupation began or the victory in the 1967 war. I dont want to get too many angry e mails. It has been half a century and if you look at the names of the people who have been negotiating out of this, the only way you get out of it is to die. Arial sharon is dead, Yasser Arafat is dead, Yitzhak Rabin was murdered. If you look at the roll call of names, maybe it does change the game. The Immediate Response amongst the Younger Generation of palestinian negotiators, there is no two state solution, we want to be citizens, lets play the demographic game. That could be a game changer. Iran was mentioned. It is important to remember that over the last two months, there have been changes afoot negotiated by, not the state department but byJared Kushner, son in law. He went to riyadh, saudi arabia. He has been three times, has built a relationship with Mohammed Bin Salman the crowned prince. I would be very surprised if this hadnt been discussed in those overnight meetings. Just picking up on that point, you can see this as a concession to israels position, but others have suggested that it is not so much as a punishment to mohammed abbas, the palestinian leader, because he went to riyadh and he was given instructions by the Saudi Arabian government, get this thing going. He effectively said to trump, not on these terms. Is it possible to see it this way . Less in terms of a particular interest and more in terms of the overlapping golf powers in israel, definitely. What has been really clear is the shifting calculus of the middle east in the arab world. When the last gaza assault happened, it was outraged. Happened, there was outrage. Both on the government side and also on the street. It is very different now. What has happened is two fold. Interests have begun to overlap with israel in terms of saudi arabia and the National Arabian emirates who are aligned because of the emboldening of iran and the Trump Administration and Jared Kushner played that angle very well. The second thing is, the arab street, i hate that term, but it is inert after the arab spring because you have three states that have been taken out of the equation, yemen, libya and syria. The remaining states have become so paralysed by post arab spring political status. Places like egypt . Yes, people would come out onto the street, they were corralled the arab league members. Now, the palestinian cause has become less useful to arab leaders, who would use it as a valve to release tension and stress and make the right noises. The second thing is, nobody wants people on the street any more, it is too risky, a tinderbox. Agnes, we had president macron saying it isnt helpful, which is a bit of an understatement, but it gets to the point. Everybody seems to have said it isnt helpful, yet President Trump has done it. What happens next . Can i be the devils advocate for one minute. Because, the lines are shifting in that region. Imagine for 90 seconds it is a plan to restart the peace talks, which are dead, as you said. And to bring israel into some concessions. Now, israel and saudi arabia. Are almost on the same page, yes. Trump is anti iran, pro saudi arabia, and it creates a new thing. I dont believe it is a plan to restart the peace talks what it shows, because jerusalem is so many Different Things to so many different people. It is a symbol and it should remain a symbol rather than become a concrete territory that you start dividing. Again, it is the lack of, a complete ignorance of history from trump. Jerusalem is the capital city of the worlds imagination, it is imaginary. It is where cain killed abel. Where abraham almost killed his son. You should stay away. To thejewish, jerusalem is their city anyway. If you look the kind of threads of reassurance, one of the great things and michael is right, we have got to get used to a new approach to Decision Making, but even in trumps statements, there was this kind of post modern moment after he had said, i have given everything to the israelis. In which he says, i will not prejudge, even the kind of boundaries and sovereignties in jerusalem. Who knows. Perhaps agnes is right, even if she doesnt believe it has health, this is a clever ruse to get the israelis talking again. Stop iam trying. There is no cleverness involved. Even if it is a happy accident . This was a pledge made, notjust to the evangelicals, but the people who bankrolled him, the hard right inside the American Jewish community which is extremely active. It is the minority. But because it is a very active minority it wags the dog a bit. I dont think there is any cleverness, except in the typical way as ned pointed out at the beginning. It doesnt change the calculus much. He didnt say and we are moving the embassy any time soon. One other thing to pick even though there is this potential communality between the gulf states, moderate sunni regimes and israel because of iran and because of hezbollah and the kind of Shifting Sands and region, for political cover, and for that to be made overt, this complicates that relationship. It doesnt ease it. The common interests are true, you are right, but even if you are the brightest, new crown prince in saudi arabia, you need to be cognisant of the limits of what you can say or do against the background. I think those limits are shifting. Have they shifted sufficiently . I think we are in the process of seeing something extraordinary in the middle east which is no longer a red line issue. Some people would say some of the arab governments have paid lip service to it anyway. Yes, you have diplomatic representation. In israel and jordan. There is flights between these places every day. Nobody is under any illusions. I would like to pick up on one thing michael said that this doesnt change the calculus. I think trump is beginning to do some real damage here. I think people make this understandable distinction, under obama, things looked a certain way but underneath it all, bad things are happening. All trump is doing is removing the mask and showing things as they are. But there is some merit, some benefit to at least the appearance of symbolism, the respect for symbolism and the respect for appearances. I think trump with the muslim ban and a jewish recognition, he needs to talk to his base and say, see all these buttons we werent allowed to push, i am going to press every single one of them. I think you are right, but different example because where trump is hurting, is next week where there will be further discussions on peace in syria, right where is the United States of america, in less than a year . He was only sworn in on january the 20th. The idea the United States is so pulled back from the conflict. From the world. I am ok with the us being removed, but i am not ok with it has put its finger on the scales in the middle east and emboldened these calculations in the gulf states. Which means the Palestinian People will continue to suffer. Yesterday at the un, a few European Countries came up with probably another good intention, but you know, to sort of lead on future restarting of peace talks. The leadership role is up for grabs. The final irony is, we were saying, what did he get in return . This is a guy who had a book ghostwritten for him called the art of the deal. Both here and perhaps even more brazenly on the withdrawal from the pacific trade partnership, he withdrew america from the game in return for nothing. It is puzzling. We will leave that puzzle hanging in the air for another week. As we discussed here a week ago, it was a Divided Island rather than a divided city which could have scuppered theresa mays attempts to get other European Union leaders to Start Talking about the terms on which the eu will trade with the uk after it leaves 15 months from now. On tuesday, the democratic unionists, from Northern Ireland, on whose ten mps the conservative government depends for its survival, objected. It took until breakfast time on friday for the british Prime Minister to provide the reassurances that allowed the dup to withdraw its objection at least for now. Agnes, is there a sense in brussels, do you think, it is good to get a deal with theresa may because if they dont, we might end up dealing with a different british Prime Minister, one who is considerably less willing to do a deal . It is good to do a deal, i will rejoice, as the Sun Newspaper said this morning. The daily telegraph, which is also a brexit newspaper, says it is capitulation. Another person said it is fudge. On the irish border, definitely fudge. If it is victory for theresa may, i wouldnt want to see what defeat looks like. If it is victory for theresa may, i wouldnt want to see what defeat looks like. Finally we have an agreement to go further. It took 18 months. That was the easy bit. 0k. There is less than a year, i repeat, less than a year to negotiate the transitional arrangement and to agree on a framework for the future relationship. Because then you need a few months of ratification. October, we need an agreement. Brexit is happening. Theresa may has a few weeks over christmas to actually come to a position and the tory party and the cabinet is split down the middle. You have one side, they want access to the single market, but no free movement. You have the other side, the loonie brexiteers. As you would characterise them, they wouldnt characterise themselves like that. Of course not. They want a canada style plus agreement. That is to say, free trade agreement. The problem is, when one solution, the norway style agreement, you can have no border, no hard irish border. But with the hard brexit solution, you need a border in Northern Ireland. We have parked a deal for another day. Even if there was a bit of drama on the way, it is a good sign, isnt it . A willingness on both sides to get something. No side wants no deal . I believe you cannot fast forward reality. But when reality arrives, you have to deal with it. There has been this extraordinary fantasy. One of the things britons, i am a british citizen now, they have to realise the information they have been given for decades, the reality of the eu and britains relationship inside it has been filtered through some severe propaganda machines in the daily press. Every once and while there is a reality because they negotiating. It took them nine months, but they could have agreed that the week they walked in. We could be discussing the transitional arrangements, 58 papers and dealing with those relationships. That is done. What i think has happened this week. Reality has hit. The inevitability of a significant sum of money to cover commitments made through our current membership has been agreed. Yet, still you have the two guys vying to replace theresa may at some point, Boris Johnson and michael gove, two ex journalist, one used to be a regular on this panel, two ex journalists, one used to be a regular on this panel, giving all kinds of confusing noise. Boris johnson says we can get back the money and get control of our borders. You are not in the eu, you are not in schengen. What are you talking about, you are the foreign secretary. It is fair to say if you belong to any organisation, nato or the eu, you have pooled sovereignty. We are saying we want to take back. You can go to the city and talk to any banker and say, we are not governed by any treaties that governs how you behave, bodies how you behave, that is why they get away with murder in london, and you have these expensive restaurants i cannot afford to eat in. You wont be able to get a cheap meal in paris if president macron has his way because he wants the bankers there. There has been little sign of this on the ground so far, this rush out of the eu by financial services. Nurses and doctors are going to leave. Financial services . Under the canada agreements, it will not cover us. They wont be able to trade in euros. If britain wants to get out of it with its head up. You are saying there could be a scenario where the eu would not permit trading in euros in the city of london as a kind of spite to britain because it is leaving . No, as a matter of fact. It is part of the negotiation. Britain wants to go. The problem is, brexiteers want their cake and to eat it. They want something that doesnt exist. They are riddled with contradictions and demands, they live in fairyland. Mutually exclusive demands. I feel sorry for theresa may because if she had come away and said, what the eu is proposing is ludicrous and im going to walk away, that would have been a disaster. If she had agreed to what our reasonable demands, and the only type of brexit the eu can get, which is ensure european citizens and their families, 3 million of them, their rights are met and access in work and stuff, then she is accused of capitulation. And the problem is, and this is where michael gove and borisjohnson are mendacious creeps, there are people who are angry, foaming at the mouth. If you have heard people over the past 24 hours, absolutely livid at this agreement, talking about the eu as if it was their next door neighbour who had done a land grab. Michael has been here a long time. You reported on Northern Ireland in the 90s, so you know the uk policies. To be fair to mr gove and mrjohnson, they are the present day generation of something that started 30 years ago. It has destroyed successive tory Prime Ministers in government. To me, i can remember the maastricht negotiations and these 4am runs byjohn major. What did he do . He britain out of the euro and britain out of schengen. You would have thought he would be considered a great lion. Two giveaways this last week, one, this splendidly, ridiculously, honest david davis, acknowledges to the committee, they havent done the work to assess the potential impact on the british economy of these various options of brexit. That is strange enough, you wonder what they have been doing for the last ten months. But even more bizarrely, the cabinet is yet to have a discussion on what britain wants brexit to be. They cant agree, it will be civil war. You know why david davis can say he doesnt believe in it, public opinion, if it goes wrong, it wont be his fault, it will be remainers fault, the eus fault. I think it is the frenchs fault. I get e mails every day saying france watns our death. We should move it out from britain, britain, britain and get the framework wider. The german head of the social Democratic Party said yes, it is time for france and germany to work together. If you want to move the project forward, itll be easier without britain and they will be happy to see the back of us. That is where we came in, the whole point was we were going to prevent germany and france doing deal. How is that working out for you. Thats all we have time for this week. Many thanks to my guests. Do join us again next week same time, same place. Heavy disruptive snow moving up in the south west. Treacherous driving conditions. Amber weather warnings remain in force until this evening. Official reports of snow depths recorded to date. One foot in wales. 14 centimetres in high wycombe. Unofficial reports of higher than that in the chilterns. Amazing photograph in wrexham. Showing the depth of the snow on the garden table. You can see the rain and snow radar, where the heaviest has been. Assista nt radar, where the heaviest has been. Assistant in wales, the midlands and the south east of the billy mckay east anglia. Starting to fragment and break up. Generally speaking they should be dry interludes developing. Across the south and south west, damaging gusts of wind. 70. 70 miles an hour. Further snowfall across wales and the midlands. Further disruption through the afternoon. The far north of england, scotla nd afternoon. The far north of england, scotland and Northern Ireland, plenty of sunshine, dry, but cold. Premier League Football matches, quite wet and windy for southampton. Liverpool, cold and dry, the odd snowflake. The odd schmo show, sleet showers continuing into the overnight period. Generally drier. The biggest risk will be the hazard of ice developing quite widely where we have snow. Temperatures really plummet. In rural places minus double figures across the snow fields of scotland. There is sundays low pressure moving off to the near continent. We see this low pressure pushing through the bay of this game to france. Damaging winds to france, also impacting the south and the south east of england through monday. Strong winds, outbreaks of rain, maybe wintry weather over the high ground. Watch this space is further snow on high ground. Elsewhere, parker wintry showers, largely dry, with crisp winter sunshine. Things are looking quieter certainly tuesday. In between weather systems. Cold, frosty, the risk of ice, the emphasis on dry and sunny. Take care fewer heading out on the roads, further heavy snowfall like. Keep tuned for the latest weather forecast. This is bbc news, the headlines at midday the uk is facing more heavy snowfalls with an amber weather warning issued in many parts of the country. Drivers are being asked to be prepared. Some roads will be better than others and with any forecast it can change, so it is a case of keeping your eye on the media and we will do our best to keep what we can open, but with the snow forecast there will be problems. Birmingham and Stansted Airport have been closed because of heavy snow. The foreign secretary has left iran following a meeting with the president rouhani without any deal to free the british
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