Welcome to bbc news. A 12 year old boy is among five people who died when a stolen car collided with a tree in leeds last night. Our correspondent Chi Chi Izundu joins us now. Whats do we know now . A spokesman for West Yorkshire police said officers were confronted by a scene officers were confronted by a scene of co m plete officers were confronted by a scene of complete carnage when they arrived at the scene last night at around 10pm. In a statement they said the vehicle involved was a stolen renault clio. They confirmed that five people were killed, as you say, all boys or men aged between 12 and 28. They have now confirmed that two were pronounced dead at the scene, the other three died later in hospital. All the families of the disease have been informed. Two 15 year old boys remain in Police Custody. They were arrested on suspicion of causing death by dangerous driving. As yet, the police have not established whether everybody involved in the car crash was in the car or some were pedestrians, they have investigative teams on the scene trying to establish who was where and when. They are appealing to people for more information you. Thank you. Drone users in the uk will be required to take Safety Awareness tests as part of planned new legislation on their usage. Police will also be given new powers to crack down on illegal use of unmanned aerial vehicles. The government hopes to harness new Drone Technology to make britain a centre of excellence. Joe lynam reports. They are getting bigger, and yet lighter. They can carry heavier items and fly even further. They will soon fly into water and go back out again. The government wants to tap into these new technologies but also prevent abuse of drones. The proposed drone bill could mean that owners of drones weighing more than 250 grams will need to register and do a test. Theyll be banned from flying near airports or higher than 120 metres. Police will get new powers to seize unmanned aerial vehicles. And the new aviation minister also wants britain to tap into the wider benefits of drones. Weve looked at the drones today which can help in the construction industry, in the mining industry, on offshore oil rigs. And whats really exciting is that they can do jobs which actually put people at risk, and so hopefully it will help with safety as well. And the safety concerns were highlighted in july when Gatwick Airport had to close when a drone was flown under a plane about to land. There have been a few near misses at leeds, bradford, cork, and manchester airports since 2015. Joe lynam, bbc news. Lets talk to dr steve wright, a senior lecturer in avionics and Aircraft Systems at the university of the west of england who joins us via webcam. Good morning to you. Good morning. First of all, does this sound like it will extend to everybody who gets a drone . I think a lot of young people will get them in their christmas presents . There are millions of them and the good news is no, there is a lbs limit of 250 grams you are allowed to have with your christmas toys. There is a weight limit. It would not be an everybodys interest to log everything. In the last five years, suddenly enormous numbers of drones around, we use them in the tv business a lot, which is fine, but they can be very dangerous in the wrong hands, or irresponsible hands . There is no new science that has come with these drones, it is amazing how they have come out of nowhere. Nobody has invented an anti gravity machine, it is a series of technologies, mostly from mobile phones. In many ways these things are flying mobile phones and that is why they have evolved so quickly at just the same time as that. The threats are all out there, they are real, that they are not malicious, they are usually what we call reckless users and things like that. The sad fact is there are more well meaning idiots in the world than evil geniuses. But there are some criminal activities going on here . Drones used to fly drugs into prison and so on. It can be very serious. The regulations proposed, what do you think of them . Can they work and are they reasonable . Yes, i think so. It does not sound like a research advocating more regulation but the way i always describe it is the ads all my excellent colleagues in the Aerospace Business are in the wild west. It is like 1917, as it were, for aeroplanes. We want to make sure things happen smoothly and easily and we cannot afford to have accidents. We cautiously welcome it, definitely. The danger to aircraft in particular, as joe definitely. The danger to aircraft in particular, asjoe was reporting, Gatwick Airport had to shut down and a plane was put at risk, that is serious . Not as bad as it sounds but it is one of those things where we just want to clear the skies, keep things moving smoothly. It makes things moving smoothly. It makes things smoother, safer, more predictable. Whenever it comes to flying, of course we are all slightly nervous, it is really important to make people feel safe as much as they really are safe as well. Where do you think this technology is leading us . Drones delivering parcels, drones picking up delivering parcels, drones picking up people and carrying them from place to place . What will the next steps be . The next step people really hope for is coming yes, carrying firstly parcels, absolutely, and eventually people as well. There are lots of people as well. There are lots of people working very hard on that. Theyre all sorts of possibilities. There is a huge number of technological problems to overcome to make these things safe at the moment we can fly a drone for maybe an hour before we have an accident 01 an hour before we have an accident or something, the sort of drones we are looking for in the future it will be more like a million hours before we have an accident, things like that. Those are the numbers we will have to deal with, the gaps in zero is, i describe it as. Doctor steve rider, thank you for joining us. Thank you very much. Irelands european commissioner has urged the uk not to leave the Single Market and Customs Union. Phil hogan told the observer that it would be the best way to avoid stringent border controls between Northern Ireland and the republic. Theresa may hopes the eu will agree to move the brexit talks onto trade at next months summit. But mr hogan warns ireland will use its veto to stop progress if it is not satisfied. 0ur Political Correspondent chris mason explains. The government is desperate to move these brexit talks on to the future relationship to talk about trade. But, in order to do that, they have three big issues they have got to be seen to be making significant progress on. Talk of a divorce bill, talk of citizens rights, that is brits elsewhere and european citizens in the uk, and then this issue which is becoming a really big sticking point, the irish border, the border between Northern Ireland and the republic of ireland. At the moment it is almost invisible. But when the uk leaves the European Union, that will be the frontier between the uk and the eu. Now, the argument is it cannot be a hard border, something that is very physical and very obvious to see. But, how does the uk achieve that if it is leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union . In other words, well be operating economies under different rules to the European Union. There is a lot of talk trying to find a technological solution, but there is very little talk about precise details. And ireland wields a huge amount of power at the moment as they can veto, they can stop, the uk being able to move on to the second stage of the brexit talks. And as if this was not all complicated and involved enough, theres even the potential for an irish general election before christmas because of political turbulence there. And there is plenty of political turbulence here, and its happening elsewhere in europe, right at the heart of these brexit negotiations. The International Trade secretary liam fox, speaking on sky, said that it wasnt possible to get an answer to the irish question until the end of the negotiations. Well, we have put forward some ideas to the European Union as part of negotiations, and actually you wouldnt expect me to say what they are. But we made very clear what the outline is of our interests, that we do not want a hard border but the United Kingdom will be leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market. We have had exceptions for ireland, whether in voting rights, rights of residence in the uk, we have always accepted a certain asymmetry, and that will have to be part of whatever agreement to become too with the European Union. But we cant get a final answer to the irish question until you get an idea of the end state, and until we get into discussions with the European Union on the end state that will be very difficult. The quicker we can do that the better, we are still in the position that the European Union does not want to do that and we are getting quite close to 2018, when we will talk about next year when we leave the European Union. For all the reasons, international and european, we have to get there faster than at present. International trade secretary liam fox. The shadow chancellorjohn mcdonnell, speaking on the preston on sunday on itv one, said that we had to not rule anything out. We have said keep everything on the table in the negotiations. What i said before was that membership of the Customs Union might be one of those options, but i dont want to exacerbate the problems. We had to be very, very careful about not losing any of the gains from the peace process. We have said all the way along by Customs Union, Single Market, these options have to be on the table as part of negotiations. Through the negotiations, see what security people feel we can give them as a result. Could you envisage a moment during the negotiations where labour would have a hard decision. You say the option should be retained, at what point might you say that is the preferred option of the labour party . It is difficult for us, we are not at the negotiating table. If we were, throughout the negotiations, we could give you a clear view but we are not at the table. Iam clear view but we are not at the table. I am worried about the news from liam fox this morning, one thing we do not want to do is jeopardise any movement quickly, because we need movement to enable us because we need movement to enable us to get into the proper trade negotiations, so i hope that is not a downing street stanchion seita at sanctioned statement that he has made. A Police Officer has been seriously injured after a van was driven at him in liverpool. It happened in the norris green area of the city after a number of officers tried to stop the vehicle. Merseyside police have called the incident a despicable attack and say a man has been arrested. Indonesia has warned airlines to avoid flying near a volcano on the island of bali, which is spitting ash and smoke high into the air. At least 100,000 people on the island have left their homes for temporary shelter after mount agung started spewing smoke and steam. Andrew plant reports. Plumes of black smoke as people on the indonesian island of bali look on from a distance. Thousands have now been told to move away from the area. Airlines have been warned about volcanic ash in the air from the billowing smoke. Many flights here have now been cancelled. Its really kind of inconvenient, but theres not much you can do, its a natural disaster. So, umm, yeah, its. Yeah, one of those things. Its kind of difficult. They lost my bag as well, so i have been waiting for my bag, but now im just going to go back to the hotel and come back tomorrow, i guess. The volcano has been showing signs of unrest since september, with many leaving their homes for temporary shelters. Now, people within eight miles have been told to evacuate, with more than 120,000 displaced, scattered in camps across the island. The mountain is sacred to people here. No one is taking any chances. Andrew plant, bbc news. Police in belgium have made about 50 arrests in the capital, brussels, after a demonstration turned violent. Some of the protesters were demonstrating against labrie in libya, they attacked Police Officers and damage shops near the city centre. It is the third such outbreak of violence in brussels in recent weeks. Officials in china say two people have been killed and Dozens Injured in a big explosion at a factory. It happened in the port city of ningbo, south of shanghai. Windows more than a kilometre away were reportedly shattered by the blast. Robin brant reports. Local reports on social media say gas canisters may be to blame. Pictures emerged showing construction workers carrying people away with glass damaged buildings behind them. Blast damaged buildings. Police say they do not know what the cause was, and they are investigating. The port city of ningbo is best known for its automotive manufacturing, and is home to the chinese owner of volvo. The explosion happened in an area which is mostly industrial and nonresidential. Branch reporting. The headlines on bbc news. Two 15 year old cars are in Police Custody after five people died when a stolen car crashed in leeds. Two 15 year olds. Drone users will have to take Safety Awareness as part of a plan to tackle rogue operators. Ilans Commission Says that dublin will play tough to the end over its richard ask is in the bbc sports centre. Australia are crusing to victory in the first ashes test. After england were bowled out for 195 in their second innings, the aussies needed just 170 to win, and theyre making short work of it. The home side finished day four on 114 without loss needing just 56 for victory. Andy swiss reports from brisbane. Well, the first three days of this test match were so evenly balanced, but barring miracles australia will surely take a 1 0 lead in the ashes series. England began the day knowing they had a chance if they batted well, but they lost early wickets, most crucially captainjoe root just before lunch. Wickets, most crucially captainjoe rootjust before lunch. Mallinger moeen ali batted well for a0 but was co ntroversially moeen ali batted well for a0 but was controversially given out stumped. It looked very marginal. From there, england capitulated, losing their last four wickets for just ten runs to set australia a target ofjust 170. England bowlers tried their best but Cameron Bancroft and david warner we re Cameron Bancroft and david warner were in superb form, they both scored unbeaten half centuries before the close. Australia now need just 56 on the final day to go 1 0 up just 56 on the final day to go 1 0 up in the ashes. England knew they a lwa ys up in the ashes. England knew they always faced a really tough task in australia. 1 0 down, it seems, it will be even tougher. 0bviously obviously very disappointed. I thought the first three days we played well and were in the game, today we let ourselves down, with the bat especially we got in and never really got on to get the big score we needed. In the premier league as afternoon leaders man city will be helping to restore their 8 point lead at the top of the table. They travel to huddersfield. Before that sixth place arsenal are at burnley, who are replaced below them due to goal difference. Managers abbott and are looking for their first win in the league in 1a matches at southampton. Manager less everton. Going to any game, i think it is important that we have for man to climb up the table, no matter who is in charge. The sooner it is sorted, the better. I think that would be a fair comment. But i have to say i think the players must focus on playing the game and performing. Southampton are a good team, they pass really well, we must see a reaction, our players must stand up and have the courage to get a result. England have been beaten 1 0 by korea in their bronze medal match in the Womens Hockey World League in auckland. Korea scored from a penalty corner in the opening 15 minutes and that proved to be enough as the koreans claimed the bronze medal. The netherlands beat new zealand in the final. British olympic pilot lamin deen secured the first major medal of his career with silver in the four man event at the bobsleigh world cup. Gbs deen, ben simons, toby 0lubi and Andrew Matthews led the standings after setting a track record in their opening run in whistler. But russias final run was enough to take gold, with gbs combined time 0. 28 seconds slower. European number one Tommy Fleetwood finished two shots off the lead, tying for sixth place at the hong kong 0pen. The race to dubai winner hit a closing round of 69, managing just this solitary birdie on the 17th. Australias wade 0rmsby won his first European Tour title at the 26ath attempt. Englands women were well beaten by new zealand in their Rugby League World cup semifinal in sydney. 52 points to four was the final score. A bit ofa points to four was the final score. A bit of a thrashing. Thats all the sport for now. Ill have more in the next hour. Thank you, richard. Ten years ago on the Andrew Marr Programme on the bbc, archbishop of yorkjohn sentamu cut up his dog collar at a protest at the behaviour of the zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe. He said he had taken peoples identity and cut it to pieces, forcing him to do the same. 0n forcing him to do the same. On tuesday the president resigned after 37 years on tuesday the president resigned after 37 yea rs in on tuesday the president resigned after 37 years in power. On the programme this morning andrew presented the archbishop with his former collar. Do you know, andrew, i could attempt to put this one back. 0r do you know, andrew, i could attempt to put this one back. Or i could try and put them all together using superglue. It would be a pretty ropey collar, archbishop. And i think the lesson for zimbabwe is the same. Theyjust think the lesson for zimbabwe is the same. They just cant think the lesson for zimbabwe is the same. Theyjust cant try think the lesson for zimbabwe is the same. They just cant try and think the lesson for zimbabwe is the same. Theyjust cant try and stitch it up. Something more radical, something new needs to happen in terms of the rule of law, allowing people to getjobs, because 90 of people to getjobs, because 90 of people are out of work. They cant just stitch it up. I need a new collar. Here is the milliondollar question, will you put a collar back on . And you, i promise that when mugabe goes, i put my collar on. I have no choice but to put it back on. Mugabe has gone, but the new president has to remember something more new than simply stitching up a thing. The archbishop of york, john sentamu. Pakistans government has called on the army to restore order in the capital, islamabad, after violence broke out during protests by islamists. The demonstrators want a government minister, who they accuse of blasphemy, to be sacked. The violence in islamabad has reportedly led to several deaths and around 200 people being injured at faizabad interchange a key highway in the city. Anbarasan ettirajan reports. Islamabad, the capital city of pakistan, turned into a battle zone. Police fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse the islamists. But they came prepared and responded with stones and bricks. Several police vans were set on fire. Many injured were taken to hospital. At one point the police had to retreat as hundreds more demonstrators turned up. After failing to disperse the islamists, the government has asked the military to restore order in islamabad. The islamists have been blocking a key highway for weeks, demanding the sacking of a government minister whom they accuse of blasphemy. The protesters are defiant. Were protesting against the operation, the cruel action the government is carrying out against the lawful demand of our holy prophet and our leaders in islamabad. We curse the government, and demand is that the operation should be stopped with immediate effect. As the protests spread, they represent a direct challenge to the governing pakistan muslim league. They also illustrate the governments difficulty in dealing with the gaining popularity of religious extremism among some sections of society. In cuba people have marked the First Anniversary of the death of their former revolutionary leader fidel castro. Students gathered yesterday at the university of havana in the grounds of the college where fidel castro was taught himself as a law student. The event was led by cubas vice president. The changing of the guard, a British Institution with millions of tourists flocking to Buckingham Palace all the time to watch the spectacle. The duty would usually falls to the armys Household Division, famous for their redcoats and bearskin hats. But for the first time, today sailors from the royal navy are leading the ceremony. Tim muffett was watching. 86 sailors from a5 Royal Navy Ships and establishments. Final rehearsals at wellington barracks for a moment of military history. It isa military history. It is a massive deal, the royal navy has never conducted this duty before. The ministry of defence described 2017 as the year of the navy, prompted in part by the arrival of its new Aircraft Carrier hms queen elizabeth, hence an invitation to officially guard the moniker the very first time. We have been trained by the coldstrea m we have been trained by the coldstream guards, who have been fantastic. We have overcome challenges of translating their orders into royal navy, orjack speak as we would say. Individuals have just come back from the gulf, some will deploy to the mediterranean in january and some will deploy to the mediterranean injanuary and to somalia on operations and we have contingent members from submarines and the fleet air arm as well. It is normally soldiers from the Household Division of the army who guard the monica twell palaces, they have done so since 1660. The changing of the guard typically ta kes pla ce the changing of the guard typically takes place outside Buckingham Palace every two days, it is one of the worlds most famous ceremonial events. The scarlet tunics and bearskin caps a vivid symbol of britain. With the dark blue greatcoat and the distinctive naval hats, i think it will be a different thing for people to see a london. As he leads proceedings, returning commander Steve Elliott will become the captain of the queen s guard. The royal navys first, it is believed, since sir Walter Raleigh in 1587. It isa in 1587. It is a fantastic privilege and honour to be entrusted with the security of the moniker. As well as Buckingham Palace, royal navy guarding duties await outside windsor castle, saint jamess palace and the tower of london. Form 357 yea rs and the tower of london. Form 357 years ago, a new temporary role for the royal navy. Form at 357 years ago. Not since Walter Raleigh, that is something. Lets cross the mighty newsroom and find ben rich with the weather. Hello. Thank you very much. If you we re hello. Thank you very much. If you were hoping for something milder in this forecast, there is something milder but it will not last and it has not arrived yet. Foremost it is still chilly but bright a gorgeous picture from stirling here. For many we will see sunshine this afternoon, the best of the sunny weather in east, still some showers in the west. Further west again across Northern Ireland the cloud will thicken all the while with persistent rain by the end of the afternoon. Temperatures may bejust nudging a little compared to yesterday. A change tonight, very wet for time in Northern Ireland and scotland, snow over the hills, heavy rain sweeping southwards with some very strong and blustery winds, gail is likely places. And that these temperatures towards the south by the end of the night, 11 or 12 degrees. Cold across scotland and into tomorrow, a process of bringing the called air back again. Mild conditions do not last very long. Rain from the south, stills showers, temperatures coming down and zampa called air sticks with us throughout the week ahead. And that cold air sticks with us throughout the ahead. Hello, this is bbc news. The headlines five people have been killed, including three children, after a stolen car crashed into a tree in leeds. Two fifteen year olds are in Police Custody. Theresa may has been urged to stay in the Single Market to eliminate the irish border issue. Drone users will be required to take Safety Awareness tests as part of planned new legislation on their usage. Pakistans government has called for troops to be deployed to islamabad to disperse islamist protest. Several people have been killed and around 200 injured in the now on bbc news, its time for dateline. Hello and welcome to dateline london, imjane hill. This week, we discuss the state of the uks finances after the budget, whether this could be the end of the german chancellors reign, and assess the prospects for the people of zimbabwe, now Robert Mugabe has gone. My guests are, from germany, Stefanie Bolzen of die welt, uk conservative political commentator alex deane, from bloomberg news, Senior Writer stephanie baker, and the italian writer and film maker annalissa piras. Welcome to you all. But before we discuss those events, we do want to take a moment to focus on the horrific attack in northern sinai, where more than 300 people have been killed in a bomb and gun attack on a mosque during friday prayers. As we go to air, no group has claimed it carried out the attack, although the state prosecutor in cairo said the gunmen were carrying flags of the so called islamic state. It is a quite horrific attack, and annalisa, the scale and the coordination of this is something that has not been seen in this region for a very long time. It is unprecedented and we know very little at the moment. So it is difficult to draw conclusions, but two things stand out, one, this is an attack on the sufi community, a spiritual form of islam, which isis sees as a direct rival. They bring away youngsters from this idea that islam can be only violence, they are non violent and spiritual, so they are a direct rival. The fact they are attacking them with such force is pretty scary. The second point that i would think is important is that egypt is a very strong country, and what we are seeing here is that this kind of Strong Military response does not work against isis. That is another scary aspect of what has happened. So probably, we need really to think what we need to change in our fight against this extremism. Alex, your concern about the aftermath of this, what happens next as a result . I think the point about sufism was spot on. Those who view islam as some sort of monolithic faith where everyone thinks the same, that is not true. This sort of thing demonstrates that. Divisions within islam are as important between the divisions between islam and other faiths and people of no faith. But the other aspect i take from this, this is very early days, but this demonstrates once again that the threat posed by isis and islamist terror is not just a western problem, it is a problem for every nation around the world. What i might demur a little from what annalisa was saying was that, almost inevitably, when someone wants to do nothing but kill you, it almost inevitably has a military response. I dont know if the egyptians got it right so far, but i think these are people you cant negotiate with. There is no other settlement you can reach with these people other than violence. Stefanie, your take on that . President el sisi has justified his crackdown on Political Liberties in egypt by saying he must crush isis. That campaign has failed. He has a major security problem on the sinai peninsula, and he really does need to rethink his strategy because, up until now, youd seen attacks, egyptian Militants Attack coptic christian churches, this is a game changer and they need to go back to the drawing board and rethink. There is a concern that the crackdown in egypt will go even further, and this is a really delicate balancing act he needs to strike. I disagree with political crackdowns on freedom of expression but one of the reasons people act as they do in this region is that they know that, if they do not put their own house in order, the israelis are always willing to do so. Sinai is a particular area of sensitivity. But the israelis in the end have no respect for National Borders if they think something is a threat to them. How can they see islamist activity like this and not think that it is . We will see how this develops in the coming days. It is still early days, as you have all reflected. Thank you very much for your initial thoughts. Doubtless there will be continuing coverage of that story on bbc news in the coming days. So, to events earlier this week, and britains chancellor, philip hammond, delivered his budget, with announcements about housing and the health service, and £3 billion set aside for brexit preparations. His performance was broadly well received, but the forecasts for growth in the economy over the next few years are bleak. And all of this, of course, against the backdrop of the stuttering brexit talks. Stephanie, lets talk about the 0br forecasts. For the next few years, it is difficult times. It is, and most of the reasons they downgraded the growth forecast is down to acknowledging that their forecasts for productivity growth have been off target. They have missed those forecasts again and again. I think this was a politically successful budget for philip hammond, it has saved him in the short term, but it did outline a very bleak low growth future for the uk whereby wages will be below 2008 levels for the foreseeable future. I think that is really the main political challenge that they face, that that is only going to get worse. It has been made worse by brexit because we have had the fall in sterling and a rise in inflation, which has meant that wages, just before the vote, we had just turned the corner in terms of wages outpacing inflation, and now all those gains have been wiped out. The stats on wages, they are saying, even by 2022, wages will not be any better than they were in 2008. That will start to bite as time goes on. Politically, i think he has done the best he could do by sprinkling bits of money here and there, trying to assuage any critics, a bit to the nhs, a bit for housing, First Time Buyers and the like, but the significant thing is that the 0br forecast did not include brexit into their calculations. For instance, on productivity, most economists think brexit will make the productivity problem even worse. We have already seen a decline in Business Investment because of the uncertainty over the terms of the deal. And likewise, facing tariffs on imported goods, that will mean higher prices for consumers, lower tax revenues. And i keep going back to the figure that was used during the campaign of 350 million extra per week for the nhs and now were facing a squeeze on public services. Instead of trying to balance the books, hammond has actually acquiesced and decided to just borrow more in order to keep the peace. Was that his only option . Alex, what is your reading of that balancing act, given the forecast . There is a lot to unpack. I think productivity is a problem facing most developed countries but it is certainly an issue. I thought it was a good budget. I think he is relatively constrained in what he can do, not least because some would argue that what this country needs is some tax cuts to generate economic stimulus and, in the current political climate, those are difficult to sell. The conservative party does not have a majority because of an election it did not have to call and then did relatively badly in. So that is the context for this chancellor. But bearing those constraints in mind, i thought there were some attractive things about this budget. I thought that extra tax credits for research and development indicated positivity about the future in economic terms. That is something i thought is very welcome. And it was the kind of thing that was lacking in the campaign that the conservative party ran earlier in the year. There was very little that was positive or optimistic about the future. Thinking about that sort of thing, i thought, was excellent. And retail politics is always important, small policies. I really liked more funding for schools when students take up further maths and higher maths studies, i thought that was an indication that were serious about supporting tough subjects that equip people for the future. Stefanie, your take . Obviously, from a german perspective, the 27 do not look so much at the political significance because hammond was not in a good position because he was a remainer and has had a difficult time surviving. A lot of people in his own party are not so keen on him. But in germany, it is a time of confirming that britain itself has kicked itself in a difficult situation economically because there is so much uncertainty about brexit at a time when you look at the eu 27 and germany, growth is picking up everywhere and the uk is going the opposite way. Some people might think this isjust confirming that brexit was the wrong decision. Alex, you think it is happening everywhere . In terms of productivity. The problem is that europe is picking up growth, it is growing, and britain is going down. So the 0br qualified the drop by 1. 3 this year when it was supposed to be 2, and its going further down. By 2020, there will be 20 billion less in the coffers of the state, and this is without considering the fact of brexit. So getting out of the Single Market, getting less investment in, and possibly a no deal situation, that means that the macro picture of the economy in britain is very, very bleak. That is simply untrue. Manufacturing is at an all time high. More people are employed in the city than ever. Gdp is fine, certainly compared to the rivals we face in developed countries. We were touching on wage levels. People employed in the gig economy, the uncertainty. Most of the newjobs generated under this government are full time, any suggestion they are kind of part time or zero hours work is a myth. But moreover, some of the kind of totemic indicators people talk about, as if they are true, they are just not. More eu nationals than ever in the uk. This is the 0br, which is made of competent people, you assume, and they are forecasting 20 billion less by 2020 without taking into account brexit or crashing out of the Single Market. This is not a pretty picture. You have been saying this sort of thing since you made your Great British disaster movie documentary. You have been saying this sort of thing since you made your Great British disaster movie documentary. Annelise is making the point that the 0br is an independent body and these are its forecasts. Let alex just come back. We were told before the referendum that by the same sorts of bodies that if we voted to leave we were triggering profound economic shocks and going into recession. Not only have we not come into recession, our economy continues to grow. Is our growth less than any sensible person would want it to be . Absolutely. But that is the case with most economies around the world. Most of these dire predictions that people seem to want to be true about our country simply are not true. That is because brexit has not taken place yet. Why do you keep saying you want to see 350 million for the nhs when that suggestion was all about when we leave and we havent left . We will leave that there. Germany is without a government chancellor Angela Merkel is technically acting chancellor, because talks about forming a Coalition Following septembers splintered election result have not been fruitful. As we go to air, it seems the spd leader Martin Schulz has softened his position, and talks will resume, but nothing is certain. Could there be another german election . We all know what the knock on effect might be. Where do you think talks are . Crystal ball time. How do you think this is going to pan out . It is a difficult thing. It is a very fluid situation. On monday, Martin Schulz said categorically they are not going into a coalition again. Now it is saturday and he has said, well, we have to consider it because it is our responsibility. Someone has twisted his arm. People within the party but mainly president steinmeier, who invited him to the palace on thursday. They are from the same party, but he obviously said, this is a moment of great responsibility for your party. So Martin Schulz yesterday was at a Youth Congress of his party and tried to sell the idea and it did not go well. Very much so within the party for the time being it looks like a majority does not want it. They will have a vote on this, so even if the top of the party might agree to go into coalition with Angela Merkel, the Party Members might vote it down. So it is tricky. You could have that situation where, for several weeks on paper, the coalition has been agreed, but your sense is it could be voted down . At the end of the day, it looks like the spd will always be the losers because, even by this situation, a new election is triggered, they will be hammered in the polls. They will be seen as not wanting to take responsibility. Angela merkel could take a step back again, and is now watching everybody collapsing around her. Everyone is in trouble. But be careful about this because the voices are saying in the party they want to have a change of leadership and it is growing by the day. Didnt Angela Merkel say she preferred fresh elections to a minority government . It is not clear that that will result in a stronger government. It is a real gamble for her, especially given that, the last elections, the cdu and the spds share of the vote went down. They are both declining parties. Despite the fact that the German Economy now is booming, that is the most remarkable disconnect. But i think, clearly, merkel is a wounded finger and it is all the more remarkable because, a couple of months ago, she seemed invincible, she was the european leader who took down trump and seemed to be the woman in the driving seat in europe on brexit. And now it looks like she will remain distracted by internal domestic politics for the forseeable future. And at the risk of bringing it back to the uk, it is a german internal situation, but we have this, the brexit talks as a backdrop, inevitably, Angela Merkel portrayed as the calm hand on the tiller through all of this, the heart of europe, whether people like that or not. If this continues, or they have fresh elections, what does it do to the brexit talks . It does not bode well for brexit or for the rest of europe either. If germany is paralysed until february, maybe later, waiting for new elections, that is a disaster for everybody in europe because we do not have only the problem of the brexit negotiations, we have a lot of other things going on with the Trump Administration behaving as it is, with russias hostility and belligerence, with instability growing around europe, not to have a strong leadership, as we are hoping to have after the election, it is a big problem. Is it worrying, alex . I tend to disagree. I am much more optimistic about the lack of government activity. I think people tend to get on better. Belgium was without a government with a government for 18 months and it was their best Economic Performance for decades. Far better off without government acting too much. I was surprised that merkel put so much Political Capital and effort into the attempt to build a coalition that i thought was not going to work. The so called jamaica coalition, black, yellow and green, because it seemed it would not work out between the old liberals, who are far more free market than most people, and the greens, who like most green movements, are like watermelons green on the outside, red in the centre, very anti free market. They were never really going to be on the same page. I think she has got to go back to the polls. Like may having a coalition with the dup the problem we see in germany is something we will see in other countries, we will see it in italy with the next elections the fragmentation of the voters. This is irreversible. Not in the uk, more than 85 voted for two parties. You are making the point that in lots of countries it has proved to be the case. In britain, regardless of the system, it locks in one party or the other, still the tories failed to find a majority. So they had to make a deal with the dup. So the biggest picture of what is going on is, are our democracies capable and ready to face what is happening in the minds of the voters . In germany, that is a very important point, we do not want a grand coalition because we didnt have an opposition in germany, when we had the refugee and euro crisis, there was an overall feeling that we need a stronger position in parliament, if this is not happening, we get more votes for the right wing party, that is why i think many people are wary of another coalition, and we have the same situation now with 94 mps. We will be discussing this in the weeks to come, for sure. Lets turn our attentions further afield. There was euphoria in harare as Emmerson Mnangagwa was sworn in as zimbabwes president. He told 60,000 people packed into the National Stadium in the capital that elections will be held next year, and he promised to stamp out corruption. Robert mugabe had ruled for 37 years. How different could the new president be . What are the panellists thoughts on that . They have been extraordinary scenes this week. Your thoughts on whether things could change in zimbabwe . Hes 75. With a short break in the mid 90s, he has been a minister since 1980, which is before some of your more fortunate viewers will have been born. He is hardly the freshfaced champion of new values and ideas. My other concern about this president is that, in the week that ratko mladic has been sentenced to life imprisonment for genocide, it seems to me that he has been lucky when he committed his own massacre, or presided over it. When he served as minister for security, he presided over the persecution of minority people in zimbabwe, and the International Association of genocide scholars puts the figure of deaths at around 20,000. I can only concede he seems to have got away with it because he has avoided responsibility, although almost everyone concerned thinks he is responsible, and because of the timing. But let us not pretend he is a good guy. For once, i agree with alex remember, he is still under us sanctions, and i think people forget that, he was so tied to mugabe and his regime that the Us Government sanctioned him. There are still us sanctions against a number of big Zimbabwe Companies and, for him to succeed, he will really need to unlock funding on the International Financial community, from the imf and the world bank and others, in order to survive. The economy is trashed. It is on its knees, it hasnt had its own currency for eight years. I think we will not really know what kind of leader he will be until the next elections, is he capable of holding truly free and Fair Elections . Does he realise it is in his own self interest to not only talk the talk but walk the walk, really follow through on these promises in order to unlock that funding to try to rescue the economy . The responsibility of the International Community will be huge. Stefanie was reminding us that zimbabwe is crippled by debt, it needs urgently something to help it cope with 9 billion debt. So the problem was that mugabe was in the same situation many, many times, and he kept being bailed out without really proper strict conditions put on him. So the question will be, will the rest of the world be Strong Enough to say, fine, you can get help, but this time, you need to do something to reform the country . And what of the role of the opposition . Guests around this table last week said the mdc absolutely have to raise its game, have to be united, particularly if we are really going to see fresh elections next year. There has to be an opposition as well to have a democratic election. And there will be fears, so how will this election evolve . Will it be free and fair . Will it be dominated by violence, by clashes . There is a lot of fear that a very bleak picture might return to zimbabwe. What does the International Community do then . This guy has been manipulating the system for some time. His nickname is the crocodile, so he knows he has manipulated. Because hes ruthless, hes cunning. I dont see these things as admirable qualities, but he knows how to manipulate that system. If i were a minority person in zimbabwe, i would view this coming president , this new presidency, as bad news because at least, when you faced mugabe, you thought there was going to come a time when it finishes. This is the new guy, it is meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Its the same person who has been persecuting you since the 1980s. So the euphoria we saw on the streets in harare this week, that was relief . It is natural to show relief to see mugabe go, and the gukurahundi massacres, which were inflicted on the minority in zimbabwe, were not against them, so seeing mugabe go was per se a good thing, but this is the ultimate continuity candidate. He hasjust done three years as vice president. People will say it was not a military coup, whereas he was the militarys guy, they pushed mugabe out and brought him back. He remains indebted to the military for that power that he has gained. But in previous situations, we have seen sometimes the military holding the power, understanding when an era is gone, and definitely, with the fall of mugabe, there is a sense that that kind of corrupted kle ptocracy cannot go on any more. So sometimes you might see that the transition guy that is remote controlled by the military might actually assist because he knows the system might actually assist the transition to a more modern country. We wait to see. Thank you very much. A degree of agreement plenty of topics to discuss in future weeks as well. Thats all we have time for this week. Dojoin us again, same time, same place. Thanks for being with us. Bye bye. The morning. There are a hint of something milder in this forecast. But it will not last long, and it hasnt really arrived yet. Still pretty chilly at the moment. Bright enough for this weather watcher in stirling. Beautiful sunshine here. For many western parts, things are starting to cloud over, this was plymouth a short time ago. Over the next 2a hour scum and changes ahead, cold through the rest of today, but tonight it will turn wet and windy. Over the next 2a hours, changes ahead. It will not be milderfor very long at all, though. The best of the brightness and sunshine is a crossed is across eastern areas. Showers through western scotland and north west england, the midlands, wales, and the south west. More persistent rain pushing into Northern Ireland. For east anglia and the south east, a lot of sunshine this afternoon, six, 7 degrees, maybe a bit higher than it was yesterday. It could get up to eight in the south west where we will see some showers. Showers for wales, the west midlands, north west england. North east england and eastern scotland seeing the sunshine. But it will be cold. How together for western scotland and Northern Ireland. Rain into the north coast of Northern Ireland by the mid part of the afternoon. By evening, the wet weather will swing east. A very wet evening for Northern Ireland. That rain moves into scotland where it will bring snow over the hills. Then some very wet weather for a time tonight across northern england, wales, the midlands, and eventually reaching the south by the end of the night. To the south of our rain band, temperatures around 11 degrees to start the new working week. Cold to further north. Through monday, its a process of bringing that cold as south. Strong winds through the night into the first part of tomorrow morning. Could be gales tomorrow morning. Could be gales tomorrow morning. Could be gales tomorrow morning is this heavy rain works slowly across the south of england. By that, the sky is bright, we get into some sunshine, but there will also be showers. Showers wintry over high ground in the north as the air begins to turn colder once again. On what will be quite a blustery day. Into tuesday and the rest of the week, its all about this cold air. You can say goodbye to the brief mild flirtation. Northerly winds bringing these cold conditions down across the country. With that, a fair amount of crisp sunshine. Thing is not looking about for many. There will be some showers around, as well, with these temperature stuck in single figures conditions at times will be wintry. This is bbc news. Im nicholas 0wen. The headlines at midday. Two teenagers are held on suspicion of dangerous driving after five people die when a stolen car crashes in leeds. Drone users will be required to take Safety Awareness tests as part of plans to tackle rogue operators. Irelands eu commissioner says dublin will play tough to the end over its threat to veto brexit talks moving on to discuss trade. That is unless the uk comes up with plans to prevent a hard border. A warning is issued to airlines about the danger of volcanic ash in the skies close to the indonesian island of bali. Also in the next hour. For the first time, sailors from the royal navy are performing the changing of the guard ceremony outside Buckingham Palace. 86 sailors from a5 ships and establishments have spent a