This week, we discuss the state of the uks finances after the budget, whether this could be the end of the german chancellors reign, and assess the prospects for the people of zimbabwe, now Robert Mugabe has gone. My guests are, from germany, Stefanie Bolzen of die welt, uk conservative political commentator alex deane, from bloomberg news, Senior Writer stephanie baker, and the italian writer and film maker annalissa piras. Welcome to you all. But before we discuss those events, we do want to take a moment to focus on the horrific attack in northern sinai, where more than 300 people have been killed in a bomb and gun attack on a mosque during friday prayers. As we go to air, no group has claimed it carried out the attack, although the state prosecutor in cairo said the gunmen were carrying flags of the so called islamic state. It is a quite horrific attack, and annalisa, the scale and the coordination of this is something that has not been seen in this region for a very long time. It is unprecedented and we know very little at the moment. So it is difficult to draw conclusions, but two things stand out, one, this is an attack on the sufi community, a spiritual form of islam, which isis sees as a direct rival. They bring away youngsters from this idea that islam can be only violence, they are non violent and spiritual, so they are a direct rival. The fact they are attacking them with such force is pretty scary. The second point that i would think is important is that egypt is a very strong country, and what we are seeing here is that this kind of Strong Military response does not work against isis. That is another scary aspect of what has happened. So probably, we need really to think what we need to change in our fight against this extremism. Alex, your concern about the aftermath of this, what happens next as a result . I think the point about sufism was spot on. Those who view islam as some sort of monolithic faith where everyone thinks the same, that is not true. This sort of thing demonstrates that. Divisions within islam are as important between the divisions between islam and other faiths and people of no faith. But the other aspect i take from this, this is very early days, but this demonstrates once again that the threat posed by isis and islamist terror is not just a western problem, it is a problem for every nation around the world. What i might demur a little from what annalisa was saying was that, almost inevitably, when someone wants to do nothing but kill you, it almost inevitably has a military response. I dont know if the egyptians got it right so far, but i think these are people you cant negotiate with. There is no other settlement you can reach with these people other than violence. Stefanie, your take on that . President el sisi has justified his crackdown on Political Liberties in egypt by saying he must crush isis. That campaign has failed. He has a major security problem on the sinai peninsula, and he really does need to rethink his strategy because, up until now, youd seen attacks, egyptian Militants Attack coptic christian churches, this is a game changer and they need to go back to the drawing board and rethink. There is a concern that the crackdown in egypt will go even further, and this is a really delicate balancing act he needs to strike. I disagree with political crackdowns on freedom of expression but one of the reasons people act as they do in this region is that they know that, if they do not put their own house in order, the israelis are always willing to do so. Sinai is a particular area of sensitivity. But the israelis in the end have no respect for National Borders if they think something is a threat to them. How can they see islamist activity like this and not think that it is . We will see how this develops in the coming days. It is still early days, as you have all reflected. Thank you very much for your initial thoughts. Doubtless there will be continuing coverage of that story on bbc news in the coming days. So, to events earlier this week, and britains chancellor, philip hammond, delivered his budget, with announcements about housing and the health service, and £3 billion set aside for brexit preparations. His performance was broadly well received, but the forecasts for growth in the economy over the next few years are bleak. And all of this, of course, against the backdrop of the stuttering brexit talks. Stefanie, lets talk about the 0br forecasts. For the next few years, it is difficult times. It is, and most of the reasons they downgraded the growth forecast is down to acknowledging that their forecasts for productivity growth have been off target. They have missed those forecasts again and again. I think this was a politically successful budget for philip hammond, it has saved him in the short term, but it did outline a very bleak low growth future for the uk whereby wages will be below 2008 levels for the foreseeable future. I think that is really the main political challenge that they face, that that is only going to get worse. It has been made worse by brexit because we have had the fall in sterling and a rise in inflation, which has meant that wages, just before the vote, we had just turned the corner in terms of wages outpacing inflation, and now all those gains have been wiped out. The stats on wages, they are saying, even by 2022, wages will not be any better than they were in 2008. That will start to bite as time goes on. Politically, i think he has done the best he could do by sprinkling bits of money here and there, trying to assuage any critics, a bit to the nhs, a bit for housing, First Time Buyers and the like, but the significant thing is that the 0br forecast did not include brexit into their calculations. For instance, on productivity, most economists think brexit will make the productivity problem even worse. We have already seen a decline in Business Investment because of the uncertainty over the terms of the deal. And likewise, facing tariffs on imported goods, that will mean higher prices for consumers, lower tax revenues. And i keep going back to the figure that was used during the campaign of 350 million extra per week for the nhs and now were facing a squeeze on public services. Instead of trying to balance the books, hammond has actually acquiesced and decided to just borrow more in order to keep the peace. Was that his only option . Alex, what is your reading of that balancing act, given the forecast . There is a lot to unpack. I think productivity is a problem facing most developed countries but it is certainly an issue. I thought it was a good budget. I think he is relatively constrained in what he can do, not least because some would argue that what this country needs is some tax cuts to generate economic stimulus and, in the current political climate, those are difficult to sell. The conservative party does not have a majority because of an election it did not have to call and then did relatively badly in. So that is the context for this chancellor. But bearing those constraints in mind, i thought there were some attractive things about this budget. I thought that extra tax credits for research and development indicated positivity about the future in economic terms. That is something i thought is very welcome. And it was the kind of thing that was lacking in the campaign that the conservative party ran earlier in the year. There was very little that was positive or optimistic about the future. Thinking about that sort of thing, i thought, was excellent. And retail politics is always important, small policies. I really liked more funding for schools when students take up further maths and higher maths studies, i thought that was an indication that were serious about supporting tough subjects that equip people for the future. Stefanie, your take . Obviously, from a german perspective, the 27 do not look so much at the political significance because hammond was not in a good position because he was a remainer and has had a difficult time surviving. A lot of people in his own party are not so keen on him. But in germany, it is a time of confirming that britain itself has kicked itself in a difficult situation economically because there is so much uncertainty about brexit at a time when you look at the eu 27 and germany, growth is picking up everywhere and the uk is going the opposite way. Some people might think this isjust confirming that brexit was the wrong decision. Alex, you think it is happening everywhere . In terms of productivity. The problem is that europe is picking up growth, it is growing, and britain is going down. So the 0br qualified the drop by 1. 3 this year when it was supposed to be 2, and its going further down. By 2020, there will be 20 billion less in the coffers of the state, and this is without considering the fact of brexit. So getting out of the single market, getting less investment in, and possibly a no deal situation, that means that the macro picture of the economy in britain is very, very bleak. That is simply untrue. Manufacturing is at an all time high. More people are employed in the city than ever. Gdp is fine, certainly compared to the rivals we face in developed countries. We were touching on wage levels. People employed in the gig economy, the uncertainty. Most of the newjobs generated under this government are full time, any suggestion they are kind of part time or zero hours work is a myth. But moreover, some of the kind of totemic indicators people talk about, as if they are true, they are just not. More eu nationals than ever in the uk. This is the 0br, which is made of competent people, you assume, and they are forecasting 20 billion less by 2020 without taking into account brexit or crashing out of the single market. This is not a pretty picture. You have been saying this sort of thing since you made your Great British disaster movie documentary. Annelisa is making the point that the 0br is an independent body and these are its forecasts. Let alex just come back. We were told before the referendum that by the same sorts of bodies that if we voted to leave we were triggering profound economic shocks and going into recession. Not only have we not come into recession, our economy continues to grow. Is our growth less than any sensible person would want it to be . Absolutely. But that is the case with most economies around the world. Most of these dire predictions that people seem to want to be true about our country simply are not true. That is because brexit has not taken place yet. Why do you keep saying you want to see 350 million for the nhs when that suggestion was all about when we leave and we havent left . We will leave that there. Germany is without a government chancellor Angela Merkel is technically acting chancellor, because talks about forming a Coalition Following septembers splintered election result have not been fruitful. As we go to air, it seems the spd leader Martin Schulz has softened his position, and talks will resume, but nothing is certain. Could there be another german election . We all know what the knock on effect might be. Where do you think talks are . Crystal ball time. How do you think this is going to pan out . It is a difficult thing. It is a very fluid situation. On monday, Martin Schulz said categorically they are not going into a coalition again. Now it is saturday and he has said, well, we have to consider it because it is our responsibility. Someone has twisted his arm. People within the party but mainly president steinmeier, who invited him to the palace on thursday. They are from the same party, but he obviously said, this is a moment of great responsibility for your party. So Martin Schulz yesterday was at a Youth Congress of his party and tried to sell the idea and it did not go well. Very much so within the party for the time being it looks like a majority does not want it. They will have a vote on this, so even if the top of the party might agree to go into coalition with Angela Merkel, the Party Members might vote it down. So it is tricky. You could have that situation where, for several weeks on paper, the coalition has been agreed, but your sense is it could be voted down . At the end of the day, it looks like the spd will always be the losers because, even by this situation, a new election is triggered, they will be hammered in the polls. They will be seen as not wanting to take responsibility. Angela merkel could take a step back again, and is now watching everybody collapsing around her. Everyone is in trouble. But be careful about this because the voices are saying in the party they want to have a change of leadership and it is growing by the day. Didnt Angela Merkel say she preferred fresh elections to a minority government . It is not clear that that will result in a stronger government. It is a real gamble for her, especially given that, the last elections, the cdu and the spds share of the vote went down. They are both declining parties. Despite the fact that the German Economy now is booming, that is the most remarkable disconnect. But i think, clearly, merkel is a wounded finger and it is all the more remarkable because, a couple of months ago, she seemed invincible, she was the european leader who took down trump and seemed to be the woman in the driving seat in europe on brexit. And now it looks like she will remain distracted by internal domestic politics for the forseeable future. And at the risk of bringing it back to the uk, it is a german internal situation, but we have this, the brexit talks as a backdrop, inevitably, Angela Merkel portrayed as the calm hand on the tiller through all of this, the heart of europe, whether people like that or not. If this continues, or they have fresh elections, what does it do to the brexit talks . It does not bode well for brexit or for the rest of europe either. If germany is paralysed until february, maybe later, waiting for new elections, that is a disaster for everybody in europe because we do not have only the problem of the brexit negotiations, we have a lot of other things going on with the Trump Administration behaving as it is, with russias hostility and belligerence, with instability growing around europe, not to have a strong leadership, as we are hoping to have after the election, it is a big problem. Is it worrying, alex . I am much more optimistic about the lack of government activity. I think people tend to get on better. Belgium was without a government with a government for 18 months and it was their best Economic Performance for decades. Far better off without government acting too much. I was surprised that merkel put so much Political Capital and effort into the attempt to build a coalition that i thought was not going to work. The so called jamaica coalition, black, yellow and green, because it seemed it would not work out between the old liberals, who are far more free market than most people, and the greens, who like most green movements, are like watermelons green on the outside, red in the centre, very anti free market. They were never really going to be on the same page. I think she has got to go back to the polls. Like may having a coalition with the dup the problem we see in germany is something we will see in other countries, we will see it in italy with the next elections the fragmentation of the voters. This is irreversible. Not in the uk, more than 85 voted for two parties. You are making the point that in lots of countries it has proved to be the case. In britain, regardless of the system, it locks in one party or the other, still the tories failed to find a majority. So they had to make a deal with the dup. So the biggest picture of what is going on is, are our democracies capable and ready to face what is happening in the minds of the voters . In germany, that is a very important point, we do not want a grand coalition because we didnt have an opposition in germany, when we had the refugee and euro crisis, there was an overall feeling that we need a stronger position in parliament, if this is not happening, we get more votes for the right wing party, that is why i think many people are wary of another coalition, and we have the same situation now with 94 mp5. We will be discussing this in the weeks to come, for sure. Lets turn our attentions further afield. There was euphoria in harare as Emmerson Mnangagwa was sworn in as zimbabwes president. He told 60,000 people packed into the National Stadium in the capital that elections will be held next year, and he promised to stamp out corruption. Robert mugabe had ruled for 37 years. How different could the new president be . What are the panellists thoughts on that . They have been extraordinary scenes this week. Your thoughts on whether things could change in zimbabwe . Hes 75. With a short break in the mid 905, he has been a minister since 1980, which is before some of your more fortunate viewers will have been born. He is hardly the freshfaced champion of new values and ideas. My other concern about this president is that, in the week that ratko mladic has been sentenced to life imprisonment for genocide, it seems to me that he has been lucky when he committed his own massacre, or presided over it. When he served as minister for security, he presided over the persecution of minority people in zimbabwe, and the International Association of genocide scholars puts the figure of deaths at around 20,000. I can only concede he seems to have got away with it because he has avoided responsibility, although almost everyone concerned thinks he is responsible, and because of the timing. But let us not pretend he is a good guy. For once, i agree with alex remember, he is still under us sanctions, and i think people forget that, he was so tied to mugabe and his regime that the Us Government sanctioned him. There are still us sanctions against a number of big Zimbabwe Companies and, for him to succeed, he will really need to unlock funding on the International Financial community, from the imf and the world bank and others, in order to survive. The economy is trashed. It is on its knees, it hasnt had its own currency for eight years. I think we will not really know what kind of leader he will be until the next elections, is he capable of holding truly free and Fair Elections . Does he realise it is in his own self interest to not only talk the talk but walk the walk, really follow through on these promises in order to unlock that funding to try to rescue the economy . The responsibility of the International Community will be huge. Stefanie was reminding us that zimbabwe is crippled by debt, it needs urgently something to help it cope with 9 billion debt. So the problem was that mugabe was in the same situation many, many times, and he kept being bailed out without really proper strict conditions put on him. So the question will be, will the rest of the world be Strong Enough to say, fine, you can get help, but this time, you need to do something to reform the country . And what of the role of the opposition . Guests around this table last week said the mdc absolutely have to raise its game, have to be united, particularly if we are really going to see fresh elections next year. There has to be an opposition as well to have a democratic election. And there will be fears, so how will this election evolve . Will it be free and fair . Will it be dominated by violence, by clashes . There is a lot of fear that a very bleak picture might return to zimbabwe. What does the International Community do then . This guy has been manipulating the system for some time. His nickname is the crocodile, so he knows he has manipulated. Because hes ruthless, hes cunning. I dont see these things as admirable qualities, but he knows how to manipulate that system. If i were a minority person in zimbabwe, i would view this coming president , this new presidency, as bad news because at least, when you faced mugabe, you thought there was going to come a time when it finishes. This is the new guy, it is meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Its the same person who has been persecuting you since the 19805. So the euphoria we saw on the streets in harare this week, that was relief . It is natural to show relief to see mugabe go, and the gukurahundi massacres, which were inflicted on the minority in zimbabwe, were not against them, so seeing mugabe go was per se a good thing, but this is the ultimate continuity candidate. He hasjust done three years as vice president. People will say it was not a military coup, whereas he was the militarys guy, they pushed mugabe out and brought him back. He remains indebted to the military for that power that he has gained. But in previous situations, we have seen sometimes the military holding the power, understanding when an era is gone, and definitely, with the fall of mugabe, there is a sense that that kind of corrupted kle ptocracy cannot go on any more. So sometimes you might see that the transition guy that is remote controlled by the military might actually assist because he knows the system might actually assist the transition to a more modern country. We wait to see. Thank you very much. A degree of agreement plenty of topics to discuss in future weeks as well. Thats all we have time for this week. Dojoin us again, same time, same place. Thanks for being with us. Bye bye. After a chilly day, cold night. A widespread frost that it. Wintry scenes around today. This is the Brecon Beacons this afternoon, dusting of snow and showers. More showers to come tonight. Those plunging temperatures mean we have moisture hanging around on the roads and pavements. We could see ice forming through this evening, overnight and sunday morning. The matter mind if you are heading out this evening orfirst matter mind if you are heading out this evening or first tomorrow. The showers continue overnight tonight. Some running through into the midlands, a few for Northern Ireland, wales and the south west. Widespread frost away from the coast and will be a chilly sunday. For scotland, plenty of showers around first thing. Strong winds as well in the north. Wintry showers, particularly across the highlands with lovely sunshine. A bit more clu b with lovely sunshine. A bit more club in Northern Ireland, one of two showers here. Showers for the north west of england. However, a lot of sunshine, a bit more cloud in the Liverpool Bay area and the north midlands, but england and wales, a lovely looking start the sunday but it will fill cold. Very much like saturday, we will have a keen wind. Idid on saturday, we will have a keen wind. I did on saturday so maybe the cold but is biting but it will be another chilly day despite what the sunshine. Fewer showers are differential for sunday but more cloud coming across from the west for the afternoon. Highs 4 8dc. With the wind, you will feel chillier. The night time period, this area of rain coming down for scotland, Northern Ireland and finishing off in southern england and wales. That will make things mild the first thing on monday. A frost free start to the new week but look at those temperatures across northern scotland. The cold air will come in quickly behind this weather system later on on monday. The isobars line up directly from north to south. It will stay with us. Tuesday, wednesday, right the way through the week ahead. The story for the coming days then will be a lot of sunshine around but a real chilly feel. Mild at first start the new week but wet and great times and the cold outlook for the biting wind as we look at the remainder the week. This is bbc news. The headlines at five egypt carries out air strikes on those they say were behind the terror attack on a mosque, which left more than 300 people dead. The actress Emma Thompson joins a demonstration in london in support of Nazanin Zaghari ratcliffe, the british iranian woman jailed in iran. This is our community and one of our community has been imprisoned without trial, has been separated from her child for 19 months. The situation is desperate. Theres no clear link between suicides in prisons and overcrowding, according to an international study. They were called the dreadnoughts of the trenches that changed the face of modern warfare