The rest of this month and we will experience some chilly weather. Lets start the forecast, 4pm across scotland. Wintry showers and we have had a doze of snow already, nothing unusual and perhaps surprising this late in the season we are seeing some of thats no. Towards the south, a clear end to the day but one thing to point out is that temperatures will drop very rapidly through the course of this evening so through the course of this evening so rather than temperatures rising through the day, they will be dipping away, such as the extent of that cold air coming out of the north. Through tonight, briefly, some rain still for a time across the south, clearing away, maybe the far south of england by the early hours of friday morning, so most of us hours of friday morning, so most of us wake up to clear skies, chilly weather and a frost from the north midlands northwards. That is where it will be frosty first thing on friday. Friday, a bright, crisp, sunny day for many of us that there will be some showers across scotland and Northern Ireland and maybe one oi and Northern Ireland and maybe one or two pesky ones developing in the far south and south west of the country. From then onwards, it is really chilly. We have wings are straight from the north so some frosty nights on the way. It will feel chilly, particularly across the north, and it is not to sunshine because there will be showers around, particularly on saturday, across many northern and North Western areas but by far the best of the weather on saturday will best of the weather on saturday will be across the south, the south east and eastern areas. Sunday morning dawns on a very chilly note. There will be a widespread frost around and a lot of bright weather for the day itself and look at the temperatures, you have to go down to the Channel Islands before you get temperatures of around 10 degrees, quite tropical compared to what will be happening in the far north of the country with temperatures into single figures. So, yes, Colder Weather for sure on the way. A reminder of our main story. A bleak assessment of the chancellors budget as the institute for fiscal studies warns that workers are facing two lost decades without Earnings Growth. Philip hammond says he hopes to prove the earnings forecasts wrong. Thats all from the bbc news at one, so its goodbye from me and on bbc one, we nowjoin the bbcs news teams where you are. Have a good afternoon. Good afternoon, im Hugh Woozencroft with a look at the days sport here on bbc news. Englands cricketers have made a solid start to the ashes series, ending day one of the first test on 196 for 4. Theyre taking on australia side that havent lost at test match the gabba in almost 30 years, as they begin their defence of the urn. Our correspndent andy swiss, was watching in brisbane. What an intriguing first day of the ashes we have had here. It has ended with honours relatively even. England 196 4 at the close. They won the toss and chose to bat and got off to a terrible start, Alastair Cook just out for two from mitchell starc. We wondered if there would be an Old Fashioned england collapse, but they rebuilt thanks to the Century Partnership ofjames vince and mark stoneman. Vince was a surprise selection but he justified the faith of the selectors. Stoneman went for 53 and vince for 83, run out by nathan lyon, superb fielding, backing up his trash talk earlier in the week with a piece of individual brilliance. England lost their fourth wicket, joe root lbw. He was originally given not out but the decision was overturned on review. England four down at the close. A day of fluctuating fortunes but no doubting englands star of the day, james vince. Ifelt calm considering the occasion. It was my first not in test cricket for a little while. Like i said, try to enjoy it as much as anything but maintain focus out there, try and enjoy the occasion of playing in an ashes test match at the gabba, without letting it get on top of me. I thought i got the balance quite right today. The former England Rugby League International rangi chase has been banned from all sport for two years after testing positive for cocaine. The 31 year old was suspended by his club, widnes vikings, in august after he failed a drugs test following a defeat by wakefield. The 2011 Super League Man of steel will not be eligible to return untiljuly of 2019. Captain Dylan Hartley has been left out of englands starting xv for the first time under eddiejones, for saturdays match against samoa at twickenham. Hartley drops to the bench as Hooker Jamie George gets his first start, while Chris Robshaw and george ford are named co captains. Exeter number eight sam simmonds makes a starting debut. Wales have made three changes from the team beaten by australia for saturdays test against new zealand in cardiff. Hallam amos comes in for the injured liam williams, with Scott Williams at outside centre in the place of the injured jonathan davies. Veteran Jamie Roberts named on the bench. England hockey captain alex danson says it will be a special occasion when they face hosts new zealand in the semi finals of the Womens Hockey World League final. England beat the usa 2 1 in auckland, its their second win of the tournament. Eight of the england squad won olympic gold with team gb last summer, and it was one of them, sophie bray, who scored both the goals. Theyll now play the hosts, new zealand, for a place in the final thats tomorrow morning. Thats all the sport for now. You can find more on all those stories on the bbc sport website. Thats bbc. Co. Uk sport and ill have more for you in the next hour. We will see you then. Thank you very much. The Prime Minister has insisted that philip hammondsjob is safe after what she described as a very good budget. Earlier the chancellor said his budget will address britains problems with productivity, amid gloomy forecasts for Economic Growth. This morning theresa may went out of her way to praise the chancellor. The chancellor did a very good job yesterday. What the chancellor was doing was setting out how we will ensure we have an economy fit for the future. Both the chancellor and i agree what the budget was about was jobs for people up and down the country, ensuring people are in work with that income for their family, its about building the homes they need, and about ensuring that we seize the opportunities for the future. So how have conservative mps reacted 7 this morning they were rallying round the chancellor, calling it solid and common sense. If you are taking 3 Million People out of income tax, i dont think that is just a sticking plaster. If people on the National Living wage will benefit by over £2,000 a year when it is increased, i dont think that is a sticking plaster. If you are freezing fuel duty, not a one off freeze, this has been frozen for over seven years, that is not a sticking plaster. Youre saving drivers hundreds of pounds, and businesses. And what of labour . They have dubbed this as a nothing has changed budget and said it failed to offer people hope. I cant see where he has helped families at all. If hes referring to universal credit, what he did yesterday is gave people £1 and took £10 off them. If hes referring to families concerned about the education of their children, there was virtually nothing there to tackle the budget cuts going through our schools. If hes talking about health, the chief executive of the Health Service asked for four million and has got just over half of that, nowhere near the amount he needs, so we are facing another winter crisis in the nhs. Ijust think, it just demonstrates to me how cut off from the real lives of people the chancellor is. A report by the think tank the Resolution Foundation has warned of the longest fall in peoples Living Standards since the 1950s and said it is poorest families who will be squeezed hardest. Torsten bell is its director and has been speaking to our assistant Political Editor norman smith with his analysis. The news in the budget yesterday was focusing on language around productivity and what that meant for gdp, the size of our economy. What we are showing today, what do they mean for the Family Finances . A grim picture. Pay is expected to be nearly £1000 less than previously thought and familys incomes are predicted to have a long stagnation over the next four years. A longer period than the stagnation we saw after the financial crisis. It is not as deep but it is longer. You suggest that it is poorer families that are going to be hit ha rd est. This grim economic picture is affecting all families and is leading to lower incomes and lower Earnings Growth right across the income spectrum. It is the tax and benefit policies of the government that are disproportionally taking away from poorer families. We are seeing benefits cut, taking over £700 away on average from the bottom third of the average households. Taxes cut, giving some money to the top third of households. We know the chancellor is going to be borrowing more to try and ease some of the pain. Does that mean that he has now compromised his chance of balancing the books by the middle of the next decade . Well, the chancellor is meeting his fiscal rules within the current parliament. That isnt to get rid of borrowing but to reduce it slightly. The overall objective of removing all borrowing by the middle of the next parliament is dead in the water. He is on course to get there sometime around 2030. If he wanted to get that in line with the conservative manifesto around the middle of the next decade, he would need to double the pace of deficit reduction in the three years running up to 2025. Given how the politics feels today, that feels very hard to do. How unprecedented is this, if you are right that were not going to balance the books until 2030, it means a more protracted and prolonged period of austerity . Have we ever been here before . We have never seen spending per person held down at roughly the same level as it is going to be now as it was back at the end of the last decade. No growth at all in spending per person. We have not seen that in living memory. A lot of the spending cuts to departmental spending budgets have already happened. Slower spending cuts coming in next years but with a big cut then pencilled in for the future, right at the end of the forecast period. The big cuts in the next few years are to to family benefits. They are very significant, well over £10 billion. That is pushing down on the Family Finances at the end of the poor spectrum. Is the truth is, we are a poorer country, many reasons for that, an ageing society, we just have to face up to the fact that we are not as lucky as we used to be and we are not going to be . What the obr has said yesterday, their big message to us is that the pace at which our economy can grow sustainably, speed limit of our Economic Growth is slower than they previously thought. A lot slower and, yes, that means in our economy, not that it will not grow but it will grow less than previously expected. It has real implications for how much we earn as workers on how much we have to live on as families. The Argentine Navy is investigating reports of a sound heard a few hours after it lost contact with one of its submarines a week ago in the south atlantic. There are concerns that the 44 crew on board the sanjuan submarine could be running low on oxygen. An raf aircraft has landed in argentina to help with the search. Rylee carlson has the latest. For a seventh day in mar del plata, argentina, people gather at the naval base to pray for 44 sailors lost at sea on a missing submarine. The Argentine Navy says the mission to find the sanjuan has reached a critical phase. The crew on board could be using up the last of the seven day oxygen supply. More than a dozen countries are looking for it now, including brazil. Commander Leonardo Brega martins says they cannot know for certain what conditions are like on the submarine. Translation we can also think that in order to preserve oxygen they have reduced the crews work rhythm, which could increase autonomy up to two weeks. Its not possible right now to confirm that the submarines oxygen has run out. He says the focus now is still on trying to re establish communication, something an International Fleet has been trying to do for a week. If support vessels do locate the submarine, getting the crew to safety will be a delicate operation. The search boat will send an underwater robot to search for the submarine. The robots use sonar to create images of the sea floor. Then once the sub is found, a submarine rescue chamber will be deployed from the search vessel. The rescue chamber will attach to the top of the sub, which will allow crew members to evacuate to safety. That is the best case scenario. Rescuers are also preparing for the possibility that the missing sailors may have to leave the submarine in specialised suits like this. Translation it is a resource that will only be used if the submarines commander decides conditions have worsened to the point the crew cannot stay inside and there is no hope the crew members can be rescued in time by other means, for example, in a mini submarine or rescue tube. An Argentine Navy spokesperson also says they are investigating reports of a loud sound heard before losing contact with submarine but he wouldnt say if that sound was an explosion. In a moment a summary of the Business News this hour but first, the headlines on bbc news theresa may says she wants to to re ignite the dream of home ownership. She says hisjob is she says his job is safe after what she described as a very good budget. Counting the cost of the flooding the clear up begins in areas of the north west of england hit by last nights floods. Jon venables, one of the killers of toddlerjames bulger, is back in prison after allegations that images of child abuse were found on his computer. Im Jamie Robertson. In the Business News figures out this morning from the ons show britains economy sped up moderately in the Third Quarter to 0. 4 . But, britiains budget watchdog on wednesday said overall it expects the uk economy to expand by less than 2 for the next four years, partly because of persistently low productivity growth. The chancellor has insisted yesterdays budget will address britains problems with productivity. British gas owner centrica has lost more than 800,000 Household Energy accounts sincejune and has warned over its earnings outlook as it also took a hit from warmer than normal weather. Shares have tumbled as much as 17 . Well have more on that shortly. Apprenticeship numbers have fallen by 59 since the introduction of the governments apprenticeship levy earlier this year. The levy was supposed to increase the number of people training at work. British gas has lost nearly 6 of domestic customer accounts since the end ofjune. Owner centrica said 150,000 of those accounts had switched to other providers, some of them because it raised prices in september. The news was unveiled in a warning about poor trading, which has sent centrica shares tumbling by 17 . Lets talk to neil wilson, Senior Market analyst at etx capital. Let us talk about losing this account. What went wrong . Centrica raise prices back in september by over 12 . I think that really kind of set the consumers to some of the smaller suppliers. I think we are seeing generally speaking consumers area seeing generally speaking consumers are a lot more savvy, they arent much more prepared to switch and thatis much more prepared to switch and that is why in the last four years the number of consumers who are with the number of consumers who are with the smaller suppliers have risen from 1 of the market to 8 of the market. This is part of a broader trend but it does seem to be significantly worsened by centricas decision to raise prices. Do you think this will affect the whole sector . Is it just think this will affect the whole sector . Is itjust centrica affected by this . You can see a general term i will see more smaller suppliers getting more of the market. We have seen getting more of the market. We have seen that comfort happen. It is potentially going to happen with sse, that is a sign that really these Big Companies are facing lots of margin pressure. They are facing a regular to pressures, the command wa nts to a regular to pressures, the command wants to cut prices and that means may be more consolidation but also more for the smaller suppliers to work with. What about the announcement last week but said it was going to get rid of a standard variable rate . The default rate which is expensive, everyone said it was a good thing. I was wondering what does that do for centricas accounts . Their standard variable talent is a very positive thing for centrica in terms of its earnings. It is likely that, for example, if the government were to impose a price cap, that could equate like £200 million worth of earnings every year the centrica lost. That said, it is not something that new customers are put onto any way. There has been a bit of smoke and mirrors that but i think broadly speaking all the pressure is coming from the government, the price cap and so on, are weighing on margins for centrica. Just outside of the domestic sphere, talking about warmer weather, it does not feel that warmer then me the last year. Also in north america, increased competition there, other significant things going on outside the uk market . That is right. You always question whether Big Companies talking about the weather, maybe in centrica it is right that north america, it is very poor, they expect profits of £80 million, down from the age of £21 million last year. A significant problem that. Thank you very much. Neil wilson. In other Business News today the number of cars built in the uk last month rose by 3. 5 , compared with a year earlier, mostly driven by higher exports according to the society of Motor Manufacturers and traders. Production for export increased by 5 . But output for the domestic market fell by 2. 9 , largely as a result of lower business and consumer confidence. Broadband firms will no longer be able to advertise their fast net services. In future, adverts must be based on what is available to at least half of customers at peak times. It follows research that suggested broadband advertising can be misleading for consumers. The furniture chain, multiyork, has gone into administration putting 5117 jobs at risk. The company has 50 stores and a manufacturing facility in norfolk, where it is based. They believe the the leg and the rising cost of Raw Materials because of the lower pound, higher business rate and falling consumer confidence. That is what happened to centrica. The pound against the euro, a bit weaker today. That is the Business News, more later. Manus island, on the tiny Pacific Island of nauru, is where australias held those it regards as illegal immigrants. Its controversial and a month ago the centre was officially shut down. Hundreds of men however remain, fearing even worse conditions at new transit camps. Now police in Papua New Guinea have gone in to start moving the refugees and theyve faced tough resistance. Our correspondent Hywel Griffith has the latest on the situation on manus island. Determined to stay and keep the eyes of the world on their plight. Men inside the manus camp have spent three weeks resisting calls to leave. This mobile phone footage was taken shortly after the arrival of the local police and immigration forces. In the middle of the operation, one man appears to have an epileptic fit. From inside the camp, a iranian refugee and journalist described what he saw. Special forces and immigration officers, they suddenly came inside the prison camp and started to, shouting the people and just saying, move, move, move. The situation is really critical and we are living in high alert, any time we are expecting that they will take us by force. Since speaking to the bbc, there are reports that him and dozens of other refugees have been taken from the centre. The png authorities insist they are not using force but acting for the welfare of the men who they want to move to three other centres. The manus camp was set up by the Australian Government to hold Asylum Seekers who wanted to enter australia. Since its closure, it says it is no longer responsible for the men and will never let them enter the country. They think this is somewhere they can pressure the Australian Government to let them come to australia. Well, we will not be pressured. I want to be very clear about this. Our border security, the integrity of our borders is maintained by my government, it is maintained by my government and we will not outsource our migration policy to people smugglers. With no Running Water or electricity, conditions inside the camp remain unsanitary. Humanitarian groups have called for aid to be sent in. The local authorities seem determined to bring the men out. Christmas shoppers are being urged not to rush into buying gifts from unknown sellers as new figures show victims lost nearly £16 million to fraudsters last year. Police have launched a Campaign Warning buyers that they could be playing into the hands of scammers in their attempts to snap up seasonal bargains. Jon ironmonger reports. Christmas is coming, which means, for many, the pressure is on to start shopping. In the big rush to buy presents, its not unusual to spend first and think second, but police are warning of a sharp increase in shopping fraud over the christmas period. The action fraud unit of city of London Police says more than 15,000 victims across all age groups came forward to report crimes last year, from Identity Theft and card cloning to dodgy online ads, costing shoppers a total of nearly £16 million. Compared to this time last year, weve had a 25 increase in overall fraud and have also seen this year a 65 increase in auction fraud, online fraud and marketplace fraud. Mobile phones continue to be the most likely products to be bought from fraudsters but clothing and footwear are high on the list too, as well as make up, drones and fitbit watches. The growing problem has prompted a police Video Campaign showing the many scams targeting christmas shoppers and what people can do to avoid them, like making sure a good deal is the real deal. Jon ironmonger, bbc news in central london. Simon will be here shortly. Right now it is time for the weather. The weather has been appalling in some parts of the country in the last 2a hours. The trend for the next few days will be for things didnt quite a bit colder right across the uk and this is a big view, you can see the polar regions here, and as a dip in the colder, driven by the jet stream. Another cold snap there. That is what cold snaps, dipped in the cold air coming in from the northern climes. You can see where the air is originating from comedy factor arctic regions, across iceland and ending up across the uk. Colder air from across iceland and ending up across the uk. Colder airfrom the north feeding in as i speak. There is a little bit of rain on the wafer southern areas of the uk towards the evening and night. Well have a look at the ring in the south. The good news is were not anticipating any heavy rain in Cumbria Lancashire where we had so much rainfall in the last 2a hours or so. This is what it looks like around the rush hour, a lot of clear weather out there. Still a bit of a breeze out there, the temperatures falling away quite rapidly, it will feel chilly. A nip in the air. Then for a time tonight, this evening and the like, a little weather front that is a discreet the south coast of england so wet weather anywhere from plymouth to portsmouth, possibly into london at all. By the time we get to five oclock in the morning, it is just exiting the south east and the colder air starts pouring in reaching southern areas while. I do not think it will be frosty in the southis not think it will be frosty in the south is coming out in the friday but certainly no other areas will be waking up friday morning to a smothering of frost. Here is friday afternoon itself. Some were two showers across the hills in the north, it will feel cold. Look at the temperatures, three, five celsius. Single figures down to the south coast as well. Frosty nights on the way through the course of the weekend, a chilly wind out of the north west, a mixture of sunshine and showers. Some sunshine around the shore on saturday across northern and North Western areas, the best of the sunshine will be across the east of the country, southern and central areas as well. Look at the temperatures, only around seven celsius. I think more sunshine on the way on sunday. Less ofa sunshine on the way on sunday. Less of a chance of catching a shower. Overall the chilly bright day for sunday. Hello, youre watching afternoon live im simon mccoy. Today at 2pm. As a long squeeze on Living Standards is predicted, the Prime Minister says the budget will be good for the country. Both the chancellor and i agree that what the budget was about was aboutjobs for people up and down the country. Its about ensuring that people are in work. More than 70 people and 20 horses are rescued from floods in lancashire as bad weather hits the uk. Jon venables one of the killers of 2 year old james bulger has been recalled to prison suspected of having child abuse images on his computer. The light at night pictures of earth show how artificial light is growing brighter and more extensive every year. Coming up on afternoon live all the sport. We are talking about the ashes. Yes, of course. England won the toss and chose to
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