I amjane hill. This week, we will discuss theresa mays speech in florence. We look at the prospect for the german elections and discuss what, if anything, was achieved at the Un General Assembly in new new york. A warm welcome to all of you. Theresa may made that keynote speech in florence this week. She set out, she hoped, more details of the british governments plans and desires for the brexit negotiations. It included talk of a two year transition period after the formal living date of march 2000 and 19. Theresa may now gets to see if her speech is sufficient to end in brussels and enable talks to move to stage two, discussing future relations with the eu and a trade deal. Lets start with you, janet. You impressed 7 deal. Lets start with you, janet. You impressed . Iwas deal. Lets start with you, janet. You impressed . I was impressed by the speech. It was the miracle of political and diplomatic rhetoric. It was fantastic. She did notjust heel resting her party and cabinet, but wrong footed what you might call the anti diplomacy of the eu. The graciousness of it and the generosity of makes it difficult for Michel Barnier and Jean Claude Juncker types to come back with their usual response. Although it did not released at Michel Barnier. He was there pretty much three hours after her speech. Of course, it was short on detail. What the eu means by more detail is more money. What british politicians and public want by more detail is what is this really going to mean. We still dont really going to mean. We still dont really know. The most Critical Issues for people who voted leave and the brexit kevin barron party, the European Court ofjustice, it is critical, taking back our own law and taking back control of our borders. She made gestures in both of those directions. She said rulings no longer have force in britain, but we will take into account their views, whatever that means. And she also said after we leave, there will be still at Mission Admission for eu citizens, but they would have to register. It were still pretty clear. The eu was going to hold out on the serious negotiation until they get more cash on the table. This is ridiculous, i am sorry. The problem is not money, the problem is where britain does want to go. You admitted in passing that there were 110 admitted in passing that there were no details in theresa mays speech. The problem is, what the eu wants is to know where is your destination. Until you do not know where youre going, there is not going to be much progress. Because you need to be up to say to you want at any particular sort of deal. She said that canada would not work. She said that. No, that it was Boris Johnson. Would not work. She said that. No, that it was borisjohnsoni would not work. She said that. No, that it was Boris Johnson. I am sorry. Obviously, there is a problem. He has agreed to the speech. He supports her speech. The idea of a deal off the shelf is now out of the picture. But the definition of your destination, talking about that, that is precisely what you do not do when you go to negotiations. The point of negotiations, which is, by the way, a french word, that you give concessions, it take a little, give a little. And to set out. It is really a kind of trap to say exactly what you want the antigen to be. You would need to know the object of your negotiations. If you do not know what brexit you want to have, how can you negotiate . How can you negotiate if you are not clear about what you want . Do you not take anything from janets point of the conservatory dont effectively saying we are ready for stage two, ready to sit down around the table and discuss this . That was very good. You could say she went from having her cake and eating it too little bit of humble pie. Because she has admitted that there will be a need to honour the contractual obligation towards the eu. She admitted a lot of things that are good as steps forward. Does that not move the process forward . What needs to be set out is clearly that you need to say what you want. There has long been a position of the european negotiators that you accept obligations. And we are Going Forward on that front. But still, what is it that britain wants in the end . What is it that britain wants in the end . What what is it that britain wants in the end . What it is it that she imagines . That is not clear. This question of the tone, and janet, you compared it to what Michel Barnier has been saying, whatJean Claude Juncker has been saying. What about what david davis and liam fox and borisjohnson have what david davis and liam fox and Boris Johnson have been what david davis and liam fox and borisjohnson have been saying . The problem, the son of a prominent negotiations, is giving the eu the upper hand, and this is a weak government it does not change. Her speech is a change the fact that it is so divided. The idea that they going to get through years is beginning to seem rather a moat. To seem rather remote. The thing is, article 50 having been triggered, then, by law, as it stands, we do leave at that point at the end of 2019. Whoever is the Prime Minister . Yes. Right. But it is a question of whether what happens after that. This period of transition, what she calls implementation, has always been agreed behind the scenes and everybody has accepted that will be necessary because it is practically impossible, practically impossible to replace all of the mechanisms and processes of the eu presently provided by the eu in the space that is available. Simply too much work any practical sense, hence the two years. The problem is we are so entangled in terms of process and mechanism and manpower. We dont have the border staff to do the checks necessary. Scion of the two year implementation period, which could be made longer. I doubt it. Didnt theresa may say specifically it is time limited. It would be political unexpected if it was accepted. Might be another government. The main point that needs to be settled now after she admitted having to honour britains commitments under the full 43 years of belonging, that the money is going to be much more than £20 billion talked about, because £10 billion is what you pay if you want to continue to be a member of the eu for more years, but what about the rest of the commitment and the rest of the promises that you pay part into your pension pot, into regional developments . It will be rather difficult. It will be a long haggle. Unfortunately, it is such it difficult and important issue about the future of the country. That it should be stopped in its tracks because of a haggle over money, it is unavoidable and must be settled. But we have to get over this point. Dont they negotiators have to sit down and say, we have to deal with this . We must Start Talking about the trade deal. The amount of money could be affected by what our conditions will be in trade. If we discover we have a more favourable trade deal we might be more generous about the money. If we must agree the money before we Start Talking about the trade deal. This is why i dont put too much store by the sweet of this speech and the warm rhetoric. It does not lead to an immediate outbreak of affection between britain and europe. It just wrong foots the people of the eu. It does. Everybody knows the nitty gritty that is important is predominantly going to be solved. Predominately britain will continue to be a european country and we have known that, but it is a problem that needs to be solved. The destiny, annalisa. You wont get an answer from britain for a long time. You cannot define what your destiny is going to be. Youre going to be out, period, but how that is going to be managed is a different kettle of fish. I dont think you will be able to give anyone in europe or at your own public or own cabinet an answer to the final destiny. This is the sort of. But that is a key point. That is a key point, because unless you understand what is pragmatically possible, then you cannot really decide if youre going to go for it, so the fact that you can end up having an off the cliff the situation where trade becomes affected in a way that damages things so much, that must be discussed now. Talks in theory begin or continue resume next week. That kicks off again on monday. Meanwhile, this weekend. People in germany go to the polls this weekend in the general election. Angela merkels centre right cdu and Martin Schulz of the centre left social democrats, have been appealing for voters in recent weeks to shun the right wing nationalist party afd, alternative for germany, which looks like to get into the bundestag for the first time. Thomas, first of all, is mrs merkel going to get a fourth term . It is striking because in the last weeks i have read articles that say the german election is boring, but when you hear that, my goodness, it is not. We could be seeing a real seismic change here. Perhaps to start with Angela Merkel. Will she be headed for a fourth term, do we take it as read . That is a given. She will win. A Boring Campaign in the sense of answering the question of who will be the next chancellor, all along, it will be hurt, no alternative. The reason is that the spd, the likely main content for office, has been in government with her. They are in the same boat, so how can any fashion a strong adversarial campaign when you have been an incumbent practically . She a party that was in government, so happily suddenly strike a Fiery Campaign . The Real Campaign starts on sunday evening, and that is about who is going to be in coalition with Angela Merkel. Yes. That will be the spectacle to watch, and it will be a brutal, long drawn out wrangling, and might continue until christmas, and germany is not trying to be governed by anyone except their professional teachers and tax collectors. The same in holland, or belgium. For ages. The alternative is of course an important thorn in the flesh of the establishment, because this alternative for Germany Party reflect the deep unease settled on the german soul after the experiment with 1 million migrants suddenly thrust upon indigenous culture. Two or three years ago when it was a welcoming atmosphere for a time. That has changed. People are worried about what the leader will do to the cohesion of society. There is likely to be a peaceful and relaxed at home. They do not feel relaxed about the sudden influx of such an alien element in their society, and that might spell problems for Angela Merkel. Do you think that the centre of gravity of the government will move because of that . I mean, will it have to move to the right . It is hard to predict, but the main thing is there will be a constant voice of dissent that will object to the integration, evermore, because we continue to have arrivals and so forth. That is the unanswered question about how eventually it will change the composition of the political climate. Because they have had a voice at a more local level, but your point is this is the first time that they will be actually in government. First time in government and this will be Angela Merkels fourth term, and previously, of course, there was another one with fourth terms who became a cropper in the fourth term. Sooner or later we will see a tendency to move in a new direction, goodness knows where, because they sense in germany is we dont want to be leaders in germany. Di we want to be leaders . We want to stop the world and go off more likely than being leaders. Seeming to drive and dominate europe. The international climate, our neighbours, everywhere, International Neighbours at the moment are turbulent, the untrustworthy american president. There has been significant change. I heard a lot of talks about the kind of historic shift to more self confidence, and namely on defence and security, because of this turbulence around europe, russia, the east, turkey, felt very strongly as a menace near germany. And because of the turkish migrants. But also the influx of migrants from the south, problems in africa, sub Saharan Africa and so on. But also there are significant talks about the eurozone reform, so macron is expected to propose very radical reforms just two days after the election, and that could mean an extraordinary change of course for the entire european union. So there are very key moments. This could be interesting and striking. It rather cuts across thejuncker plan for a sort of bird eu, which is interesting. More centralisation, you know. , army, physical union. No majority in germany wants to go for a physical union, and interesting you should mention macron. Macron is still. Fiscal union. The jury is out on whether he will succeed with his reforms to france. Remember what happened under a francois hollande, when he tried to introduce modest changes and virtually had a civil war his plate. Whether macron will succeed in changing the french inbred sort of sense of, you know,. Entitlement. Entitlement is the word. You dont know. Some might say Work Life Balance but call it what you will. For that to be the main ally for Angela Merkel in europe will not be enough. She needs to work out whether, in some fashion or another, i dont see how she can help britain with the brexit problem, but she does not want to lose britain under her watch, on her watch. That britain should drift away and so forth. Britain has been an important partner in terms of free trade, and democratic culture and what have you, and then suddenly she is left with, what, france, spain, southern european countries, or problematic countries. What has been mooted now is contrary to what janet says about a european superstate of juncker, a much more flexible europe that would see france and germany being a kind of avant garde of more integration, and that would create a parallel kind of cooperation on which, of course, britain would be on the side. But the idea is to be much more nimble and fast in moving forward on the things that you need to move forward on, and quickly because it is a matter of survival. Yes. The eurozone and defence and security, those are the areas likely to see a strong acceleration. Your point about her village is interesting because this rippling way back now. If you look at germany may be rethinking its defence posture, and so on and so forth, because of regional turbulence, look at japan. You have two great losers in world war ii, who have been basically, sort of, neutered in military terms since then, now, because of what is happening in their own regions, having to kind of seriously think about, where do we go from here . We are also witnessing the biggest arms races since the end of the cold war. The strategic environment is changing very fast and quickly. Things are going to have to adapt. But if macron has a multispeed europe in might, that must also. He added that there would be simultaneous but differing paths. It changed a long time ago. Lets see what the german Voters Decide at this weekend. Thank you on that one. The 193 members of the United Nations met for the General Assembly in new york this week. There was talk from britains Prime Minister of withholding part of the budget if the un doesnt reform. President trump used bellicose language about north korea, in a speech listened to in silence. Were any conclusions reached around migration, climate change, myanmar, iran . 0ne senior diplomat told a british newspaper it was the most emotionally exhausting General Assembly they could remember. Stryker, was anything achieved . How was it for you . It may have been emotionally exhausting but i dont really see that anything came out of it. Not anything except for bad things. First of all, on the issue of reforming the United Nations, this has come up before and will come up again, and, you know, he would have thought given what trump has said in recent years about the United Nations that if he entered the building it would only be in order to bring the whole place down, which he didnt do. He was rather conciliatory. When he talked to the General Assembly . But he was. Seriously, about the un, he said some nice things. About the institution. In florence, a little bit, you know. He is basically recognising the importance of the un and says, but you are not doing yourjob. I dont think that this is going to change any time soon, but what came out of it was some incredible language. And so what we have, he continued, of course, to take on the kim jong un, aka rocket man, his favourite phrase, who is now in the last 2a hours having become little rocket man. So kim jong un, of course, responds, and this is not going towards a good place. This is not going well. And iran, he tried to. He took on iran, saw iran calmly fired off a missile, a Ballistic Missile not a Nuclear Missile or anything, but they fired off. This is not good. This is not productive. I guess the problem is that we live in the era of twitter. Sooner had to translate a message that was meant for his twitter fans. And what is the real diplomacy behind the scenes . Going beyond the rocket man pop music rhetoric meant for fox news and twitters audience, there was quite a significant advancement on a more kind of solid diplomatic ground work, and the fact that he recognised that the United Nations is needed. For protection. You mean in relation to north korea . In relation to north korea. There were conciliatory noises towards russia and china for having agreed to offer sanctions on north korea. There were signs that trump is seeking the help of russia and china and they are helping. There is a kind of need also for us journalists to start dissecting the kind of fake news big rhetoric environment to what actually happens in diplomacy. Diplomacy happens behind closed doors. But the policy in america. He is the commander in chief, and although there are signs that his defence people and the pentagon people are desperate to put him in a cage and lock him in a cupboard, that does not make a difference to the constitutional role he has. He did notjust make those insults on twitter but in the General Assembly. He talked anyway we are used to hearing tinpot dictators properly goes to the Un General Assembly, that is very serious. It is not a case of ignoring him and you hope the rest of the world willjust ignore him as a kind of noisy somebody sitting in the back room somewhere, locked in the attic, but in fact they cannot ignore him. All they have to do is find it convenient politically to decide theyre going to take him seriously, if north korea or iran decide they will take him seriously, taken at his word, and boom, you know, theres a serious consequences. Butterfly reflected around this table before that the general to advise him their policy towards north korea appears to be very different. And yet, we have seen reflected. They consistently say the military solution is not a solution. But the contradictory messages coming out of washington, that is very disorientating. That is very. It is a volatile situation. One cannot be complacent about this and say, well, the generals will sort it out. Things are going on behind the scenes. This man is the come under in chief of the united states. We dont know about kim jong un. During the length of trump, the like the length of time. An uncertain world. The language we heard is a bit of comic relief in the great drama with these two yelling at each other, but behind it is the unsettled question of what is the destiny of america . Under this current president long as we dont have a resolution to this enigma, reforming anyone, let alone the un, is far of the table. Off the table. He was implying that without reform america would start pulling away its cash. Pulling away its cash contributions, the main supporter of the un. One of the blasters. Taking him seriously. Bluster. There are signs that the new secretary general again is doing a lot of work that doesnt filter into the newspapers to actually change things. What is he trying to change in your opinion . What are the reforms . Theresa may talked about needing to be more nimble as an organisation. More transparent. This organisation, 193 voices of countries in the world. Have you ever tried to talk with 193 people and tried to be nimble . Of course it is difficult, but i think what has been tackled is the issue of bureaucracy, the slow process, the role of blue and white elements, the role of peacemaking and peacekeeping. I think there are signs that the secretary general is another secretary general income parents into ban ki moon, dynamic organisation. He could be the man who. Could be the man who beheaded animated nimble . There is a shared awareness ever were in the world that we have never need the un more than today. There is an awareness that we need to make a work in this volatile situation. There is the awareness that we need to make it work. If it provides a steam valve for lunatics to shoot their mouths off, if it gives a public platform for people saying inane things that could exacerbate situations and make it worse. They have to be very careful, i think, about assuming that because people are talking it will help. Sometimes what people are saying, and insulting each other and causing offence, it could actually inflame the situation. All right. Thank you to all of you. Plenty to discuss another time. Thats all we have time for this week. Do join us again next week, same time same place. But for now, thank you for watching and goodbye. Hi there. Yesterday, we had two types of weather through the afternoon. We have a weather front today that will try to push eastwards and as does it will build into High Pressure across scandinavia and europe. It will make little overall progress and often the front will be weakened. Beginning the day with damp weather in western scotland and western parts of england and wales, possibly across Northern Ireland. This is the zone that will continue to see the rain on and off through the day. Central and Eastern England, Central Scotland staying dry and, if anything in the hazy sunshine could be even warmer, temperatures reaching 22 or 23 degrees. Rain is heavy through sunday night and at the same time it will probably turn foggy and gloomy in Northern Ireland as the air begins to cool. Otherwise, a mild night. On monday, the fog taking a long time to clear in Northern Ireland. Sunshine emerging and the front weakens as the rain turns light and patchy on monday across Western Areas with cloud breaking up across Eastern England we will see sunny spells. Another mild day, 16 19 degrees for most. This is bbc news. Im duncan golestani. Our top stories the war of words hots up, with north koreas foreign minister launching a blistering attack on President Trump at the United Nations. To the salt the supreme divinity of country by referring it to a rocket. By country by referring it to a rocket. By doing so he committed an irreversible mistake. It comes as iran test fires a new medium range missile, days after a warning from the united states
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