Transcripts For BBCNEWS Witness 20170903

Have been in the 4. 5, 4. 6 range. You know, a couple of kilotonnes, which isa know, a couple of kilotonnes, which is a big explosion, but it is not a big nuclear explosion. Much smaller than the hiroshima weapon. So the second one looks like it may not have achieved what they wanted it to. But if the first one was a 6. 3, thatis to. But if the first one was a 6. 3, that is a big deal. And they will be barely going a week without hearing from north korea about some of their tests, what they can launch, last week launching and b cell overjapan. Launch, last week launching and b cell overjapan. We do you think this is all heading . I think we have to interpret this as being kim jong uns effort to try to build very quickly a Nuclear Capability before more serious sanctions are put on him. By the un Security Council. He is really going to be challenging china with this explosion is of the damage that was likely done in china. Korea is a granite underlying geology and that undoubtedly have caused great shocks in china. I think he is trying to move quickly before he is hit hard then be able to sustain the development of this nuclear and Missile Programme but we dont know for sure. This is the kind of time when he is trying to build up a capability that will be truly threatening to the outside world. We have to be prepared to take serious action against him. You mentioned china, this is incredibly difficult for that country, isnt it . It is because on the one hand, they dont wa nt to because on the one hand, they dont want to see a collapse of north korea but on the other hand, they know that if somehow there was chaos in north korea, they would have to do something, xijinping the leader of china has been very clear that if war or chaos were to develop in north korea, he would have to take action. And since hes a person who cannot stop their missile negritude, the Nuclear Tests, obviously the only way for him to take action, to me, would be that he would have to insert ground forces, and thats the kind of thing that he probably doesnt want to do because of the other threats north korea could pose with nuclear weapons, fired against china. Bruce, thank you very much. Spend it defence analyst. If you are joining us, some breaking news coming into the bbc here and that is both china and south korea reporting, detecting tremors or explosions coming from around north korea near to where north korea has carried out previous weapons test. Chinas Earthquake Administration is saying it has detected two quakes in north korea, the second one being of 4. 6in north korea, the second one being of 4. 6 in magnitude, describing that one as a collapse. The south Korean Military says they believe this tremors, these explosions are man made, in other words, they are not naturally occurring earthquakes. This comesjust not naturally occurring earthquakes. This comes just hours after north korea boasted that it had developed a Hydrogen Bomb capable of being fitted onto an intercontinental Ballistic Missile. So the two coming very close together, worrying, as a nalysts very close together, worrying, as analysts have been saying. Duyeon kim is an expert in south korea and she has been chi joins me now. Duyeon, we spoke to you a little while ago. What do you make of china having detected another earthquake of 4. 6, correction, not an earthquake, a tremor of 4. 6 . Well, we are going to have to see, we are going to have to independently verify all of these reports, all of these statements. Im not sure if they were after shocks, we will definitely have to look into that. But again, this is not change the situation we are in. In this situation, where pyongyang is making it clear that it wants to protect its technology, it is making its message to the world clear as well. It is going through forced to cross the finish line which is nuclear tipped missiles, and so we are really in a situation where washington, beijing, tokyo, seoul really need to join forces and unite in trying to first stop pyongyangs further testing of missiles and Nuclear Device in, nuclear weapons, and also to a situation where we can somehow try to stop the norths Nuclear Missile programmes or roll them back. I think it is fair to say though, isnt it, diplomacy and sanctions dont seem to be working on north korea. Well, we have not had a good track record, thats for sure. But there were many factors and variables are played out in the reason behind ourfailed policies in the past. One of which actually is that time ran out for the bush administration, time ran out for obama, time ran out for clinton, and now is the time when we really need to test all of our options, all of oui to test all of our options, all of our diplomatic options, and our sanctions options, there are a lot of sanctions would still have not been implemented yet, including secondary. And on the diplomatic end, we have not, this is now the time to test everything we can at oui time to test everything we can at our disposal to try to change the norths behaviour short of military action. What could china do, if anything . Well, china actually has a lot of tools at its disposal that beijing unintelligible choosing not to do that. Beijing knows fully well that it can sanction the north to an extent where the north does not collapse, asia knows it can sanction pyongyang to the extent that the regime does not, where china does not see knott refugees crossing the border. But interesting that beijing chooses not to at this time which is concerning. It fundamentally, beijing does not have the incentive to solve the north Korea Nuclear problem for us because of its own strategic interests. Though it can help but you really need to prod beijing to help them to step in, where it can. I think it is fair to say that the view from regular setting is quite different for the rest of the world, south korea and seoul being so close. What is the mood like in south korea because it really has been just a series of ratcheting up of the war of words over the last few months. But you there are so close, so what is the mood like . The mood here, frankly, is in generalfind. To be honest. It is in generalfind. To be honest. It is business as usual in general. They emphasise in general because it is really the policy community and Security Experts and Nuclear Experts and Government Experts who are thinking about these issues, to work on these issues. The broader public, they have lived with a north korean front for decades and it doesnt mean they are not concerned but they are not panicking after every single nuclear test or missile test, as you may expect them to based on headlines in the newspapers or on tv and its carried through the western media. Now in south korea of course the concern exists but most people here, the average person is actually more concerned about their day to day life, they are more concerned about earning a living, the next months paycheque, prospering, gaining economic wealth and prosperity, and so its actually, there is quite a bit of a disconnect. On the ground here we re disconnect. On the ground here were you read in the papers or see on tv. Were looking at of kim jong un inspecting what north korea says it is a Hydrogen Bomb, capable of going on to a missile. Earlier we we re of going on to a missile. Earlier we were talking about being careful about these kinds of announcements. Do you think we should be treating them with a degree of scepticism . Do you think we should be treating them with a degree of scepticism7m any given scenario i think we should not overrea ct any given scenario i think we should not overreact and panic after every single north korean pronouncement and declaration. But at the same time, asi and declaration. But at the same time, as i said before, we should not underestimate the capabilities either because underestimating them will get us to a situation where the north korean Nuclear Missile Programme Capability developed just creeps up and shocks us so we definitely should be ready, we should be cautious, and we also need to devise a proactive strategy and policy to try to stop the current situation. How do you get proactive, though, with a leader who seems oblivious to all the warnings coming from countries . Well, thats where we need to put our faith from countries . Well, thats where we need to put ourfaith in from countries . Well, thats where we need to put our faith in the permanent bureaucracy, we need to put our faith permanent bureaucracy, we need to put ourfaith in permanent bureaucracy, we need to put our faith in the Senior Leadership in government, and to try to band together, worked together, and, with the president , with the leaders, and other leaders, with allies and partners, and so it really ta kes allies and partners, and so it really takes a multichannel, multi front effort on the situation. Duyeon kim, thank you forjoining us. The story that we following here on bbc news other reports of tremors or earthquakes coming from around north korea, being reported by the south Korean Military, by the United States Geological Survey, and also by the chinese authorities. They va ry by the chinese authorities. They vary in the magnitudes but they are definitely picking up on some kind of tremors and the south Korean Military are definitely saying that they believe that those tremors are man made and outcomes a few hours after north korea announced that it had developed a Hydrogen Bomb and we saw pictures of the north Korean Leader kim jong un looking at those hydrogen bonds, what the north korean News Agencies say a hydrogen bonds, capable of being fitted onto intercontinental Ballistic Missile. That was a few hours ago and then, in the last 30 minutes or so, we started getting these reports, thick and fast, from these from the chinese and United States Geological Surveys and also from south korea, of tremors being detected from around the area but north korea carries out these tests. Im joined now by dave schneller, a Research Associate at the James Martin Centre for nonproliferation studies in monterey, california. Thank you for joining us here on bbc news. What do you make of these developments that weve had this evening . Well, the turnaround was a bit quicker than most people were expecting. We just opened yesterday from north korea with kim jong un inspecting opened yesterday from north korea with kimjong un inspecting appeared to bea with kimjong un inspecting appeared to be a fairly large Nuclear Device soi to be a fairly large Nuclear Device so i think we were all quarter was with offguard. Caught a little bit offguard. How alarmed are you to see those pictures of kim jong un looking at what they say is a Hydrogen Bomb and now tremors being detect that close to where they have carried out tests before . Right, so we are starting to get information right now, still a little early but if the size of the earthquake is correct, it holds true as more information and announcements come through it will be the Largest Nuclear tests north korea has ever conducted. And if it is the largest what would you make of that . The north korean have been saying that they are developing these weapons, testing those missiles, which these weapons would be used so this was bound to happen sooner or later. Should we be alarmed . How alarmed are you . Yeah, we should definitely be alarmed any time north korea carries out a nuclear test and certainly isnt a good it reinforces the fact that north korea is committed to their Strategic Weapons Programme and that we are going to probably have to start looking at alternative methods of dealing with the problem which i think should focus around talking to the north korean. Do you think talking to the north korean s works though . Is kim jong un likely to respond to diplomacy . Well, North Koreans have been saying for quite some time that they want to renegotiate the relationship between the United States and north korea. They have developed this programme under all the sanctions, so i think ruling out military intervention, which would bea military intervention, which would be a catastrophe on a scale we have not seen, talks seem like the best outcome. Were looking at pictures of kim jong un inspecting what the North Koreans are saying is a Hydrogen Bomb, and their press release from the News Agencies in pyongyang, they say that all the components of the h bomb were home made. Do you think that is realistic, in terms of where they are technology is at . Where their technology is at . Well, they rely on external help, so with more sanctions, they are compelled to develop indigenous technologies. So i wouldnt be surprised if this was something they developed on their own. Of course, we were saying earlier that getting these missiles, with whatever is on the top of them, up with whatever is on the top of them, up into the atmosphere is one thing. But coming down requires a superior level of Missile Development altogether. Where do you think north korea is at with that . Well, they have been testing re entry vehicles, at least from our best assessments, the last two long range missiles, the last two long range missiles, the hwasong i2 and i4, and there was an assessment which had their capability before the most recent one, which was fired on a more normal trajectory, that they are able to survive re entry. Normal trajectory, that they are able to survive reentry. We appreciate you joining us on bbc news. Thank you very much. I spoke to our correspondent in seoul a short time ago, and she gave me more details about what has been happening in the last 30 minutes or so. We have spoken to the south Korean Defence ministry who are saying they have detected the earthquake in the North Eastern part of north korea. They are still analysing to see whether it was triggered by any sort of explosion or a possible test. What we also know is south korean president moon has convened an emergency meeting of the Security Council to try and analyse what the earthquake is, however triggered. The United States Geological Survey has also said confirmed this, that there has been a 5. 6 scale earthquake in the North Eastern part of north korea. But no confirmation that this is definitely a nuclear test. The chinese administration, chinese Earthquake Administration, has said that they think this is a blast that triggered the earthquake, so that is the information we have as of now. Put this in context for us, because we were talking just a few hours ago about Something Else that will help make sense of this, wouldnt it . Well, this comes against the backdrop of heightened tensions in north korea. Perhaps, you know, they are sort of at a point where they have not been in recent years. We saw a missile test conducted by north korea just on tuesday, so not even a week. This morning we woke up to a statement from the north korean official newsagency that said its leader, kimjong un, had inspected a Hydrogen Bomb, so a very high powered Nuclear Device that they say they are now capable of fitting on an intercontinental Ballistic Missile. We already know that injuly they tested these long range rockets, and if they are now saying that they are able to miniaturise a warhead to put on those long range missiles, it will be seen as a very serious threat by america. This comes against the backdrop of tensions we have seen all through the month of august. We have seen an intense war of words between pyongyang and washington, we have the north korea making threats that it will fire rockets at the us pacific territory of guam, and weve seen it on tuesday, firing a rocket that passed overjapan and then crashed into the sea about 1,000 kilometres the coast of the Northern Island of hokkaido. So this would be, you know, another step in the escalation we have seen here, you know, we are going to have a national Security Council meeting here that president moon will be chairing, and hopefully we will understand why this effect was triggered. Was it indeed a nuclear test, another Nuclear Tests conducted by north korea . Its also worth knowing the last nuclear test conducted was in september last year, almost a year ago. They conducted two, in january and september, and very often, when they conduct a nuclear test, they say it was a response to joint military drills by the us and south korea to take place every august and last week actually the drills have here in south korea. Many experts have been saying that the nuclear test is imminent, that it isnt a question of if but when. Of course, were still waiting to find out if what were seeing and hearing about today is indeed the nuclear test that we were expecting. I suppose what we have here is two separate announcement or two separate developments in the last few hours, that may or may not be connected, and we have to be careful as we go through that. As it were just talking about, we were looking at pictures there of kim jong un inspecting what north korea News Agencies are saying is some sort of Hydrogen Bomb that could be fitted onto an intercontinental Ballistic Missile. That was a few hours ago, we were talking about that, werent we . And now, just in the last few minutes, we are getting these reports of some sort of explosion, some sort of tremor, depending on who you listen to. There we are. That is kim jong un there looking at what the north korean agencies are saying is some sort of Hydrogen Bomb that can be fitted onto an intercontinental Ballistic Missile. And then, in the last few minutes, we got this development of tremors being measured somewhere off north korea. I suppose it is important to say that earthquakes have been triggered by north korea carrying out tests, and that has increased since 2006. Just give us a sense of how kimjong un has really ratcheted up the amount of tests that north korea has carried out over the last few years. Well, you know, if you look at the missile tests, which are separate from the Nuclear Tests, there have been more than a dozen launches just this year alone. Two injuly, we have seen two in the month of august, that was a series of short range missiles that were fired and then the one last week that was fired overjapan, an intermediate range missile. As far as Nuclear Tests, since 2006 they have conducted five. In january last year when they conducted a nuclear test, they tested a very powerful Hydrogen Bomb, the claim made by pyongyang. It was disputed by experts, who said it was probably a less powerful Nuclear Device. The announcement this morning, just a sort of put all of this in perspective, the statement we had from the kcna agency this morning, was saying that they have prepared a very powerful Hydrogen Bomb so powerful Nuclear Device, and the important bit of that statement was that they had said that this is actually a warhead, which they can fit onto an intercontinental Ballistic Missile. Theyve tested long range missiles injuly, there were two tests carried out. Many experts believe those missiles are actually capable of hitting the us mainland. So the announcement this morning essentially amounts to north korea saying that we are able to now weaponise our long range missiles. As far as the Nuclear Tests are concerned, they have conducted five, as i was saying, two last year. We havent seen a nuclear test conducted this year. In august, south Korea Spy Agency had said that what they have gathered from north korea is that a nuclear test is imminent, the preparations are under way for that, and we are now hearing, we have had confirmation, that there has been a 5. 6 on the Richter Scale earthquake, and were still waiting to find out if that was triggered by a nuclear test. You know, what we know is that it happened in the North Eastern part of the country. This is a province from where the Nuclear Testing site is located. But we do not have confirmation from the us or south korea, or even from north korea themselves, that this is indeed a nuclear test. You are watching bbc news. Breaking news in the last hour is that the United States, china and south korea, the various earthquake authorities in those countries, have reported some sort of earthquake, some sort of tremor, coming from north korea. The United States Geological Survey has registered an earthquake of 6. 3 in magnitude. The chinese authorities recorded it at a depth of zero kilometres, so very, very shallow. They also believe. Sorry, the south Korean Military also believe that it was man made. The context for this is that in the last few hours north korea has been saying it has developed a Hydrogen Bomb, and has released pictures of the north Korean Leader, kim jong un, inspecting that alleged Hydrogen Bomb. There you go, you can see it there. They say that that bomb has great destructive power. That is a quote from the News Agencies from pyongyang. North korea has, of course, been pursuing a Nuclear Device that is small enough and light enough to fit on a long range Ballistic Missile without affecting its range, making sure that it affecting its range, making sure thatitis affecting its range, making sure that it is capable of re entering the atmosphere and hitting its target. Now, the North Koreans are saying that all the components of that h bomb were home made, so that was a few hours ago. And you can see a missile test from last tuesday that went over japan, a missile test from last tuesday that went overjapan, causing alarm there. At the developments in the last hour is these tremors being felt, and they are being felt in areas around north korea where the pyongyang authorities have previously tested missiles. We are going to keep following this story here on bbc news. Do stay with us. Hello. Most of us enjoyed some picture perfect weather to start the weekend on saturday. Well, these are the pictures to prove it. Broken cloud, a lot of sunshine, pleasantly warm in the sunshine. There were just one or two sharp showers across parts of east anglia. The vast majority were dry. But, if this was saturdays weather, this is sundays weather. Quite a change cloudier for many, wetter for some. And, as we go on through into the first part of sunday, you can see where the rain has arrived, across Northern Ireland into western scotland, wales and much of South West England. It is notjust wet, it is windy, too, with some gales through the irish sea. And some of the rain during the first part of the day will be on the heavy side, as well, so really will be a grey, wet start to the day. Whereas further east, in complete contrast, therell be some sunny spells around, although turning increasingly hazy quite quickly as we go through the morning, and the breeze will start to pick up as well. It looks like the it looks like the more it looks like the more persistent it looks like the more persistent rain may be edging away from the west of Northern Ireland as it turns more patchy. It is pushing into south west scotland, whereas to the east it is looking mainly dry. A weather system will try to take east it is looking mainly dry. A weather system will try to take the rain east during the day, but it is a slow process. Eventually you will see it edging it in north west england, the midlands and more of South West England through the afternoon. Northern ireland will be turning dry. Used in most parts clinging onto some dry weather. The cloud will increase and the breeze pick up but the longer you have some sunshine, macy i9, 20 celsius under cloud and rain. Maybe 15 sunshine, macy 19, 20 celsius under cloud and rain. Maybe 15 degrees, quite a contrast. Where you have stayed dry, a greater chance of seeing increasingly light and patchy outbreaks of rain working their way eastwards. At the weather system really just stopping eastwards. At the weather system reallyjust stopping in its tracks as we look at the picture for monday. That means on monday we are left with, certainly to begin the day, a whole lot of cloud around. It is misty and murky, damp and drizzly. Through the day we will have more rain across scotland and Northern Ireland, but for england and wales some of us will brighten up. Quite and wales some of us will brighten y, and wales some of us will brighten up. Quite muggy, and if you get to see any sunny spells it will turn out to be quite warm, with temperatures in the low 20s. Tuesday and wednesday we are getting back to more showery, breezy weather patterns. I the end of the week it looks quite wet and windy. By the end of the week. Hello, this is breakfast, with ben thompson and sally nugent. North korea appears to have carried out another nuclear test. In the last hour, china and the United States say they have detected tremors that could indicate an underground explosion. Earlier, the state news agency released pictures of leader kim jong un inspecting what it said was a new Hydrogen Bomb. Good morning, its sunday the third of september. Also ahead nhs bosses in england ask for more money to avoid and other winter crisis. Theresa may calls for unity to prevent a tory rebellion over brexit, as the commons prepares to debate legislation to leave the european union. A dozen britons are arrested in spain, by police investigating