The early release of Thailand's once-fugitive ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra represents to many a deal the influential billionaire made with his enemies to counter an even greater threat to the royalist-military establishment. To some observers of Thailand's convoluted politics, Thaksin's parole after returning from self-imposed exile in August was the latest act in an elaborate effort to crush the hugely popular anti-establishment Move Forward party that finished first in last year's election. Move Forward, which advocates institutional reforms including some involving the monarchy, was blocked from forming a government by a Senate appointed by a junta that seized power in 2014 coup against a government led by Thaksin's Pheu Thai party.