For the first time in eight years, India's rice output is expected to drop this year, raising the prospect that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will extend curbs on exports of the grain to keep a lid on food prices ahead of elections. Production in India, the world's largest rice exporter, is under unusually intense focus after New Delhi banned exports of non-basmati white rice in July, sending global prices surging. However, the state of the crop is hard to predict following an uneven monsoon.