A moving shortage in Critical Minerals needed for the Energy Transition. So why is Global Investment in the mining of us materials decline . The chinese influence helped to push down the cost of products like video games, t shirts, and Home Appliances in the u. S. Spots Many American factories. So thats driven them out of business. So the cost more than a 1000000 jobs president drove by it and it says that the one to allow trying thats a quote on fairly control the markets in a pre election effort to protect industries and workers. He sharply res terrace on chinese. In ports ranging from electric vehicles to solar cells, beijing has launched its own anti dumping investigation following the measures. So who has the upper hand, will discuss it shortly with all guests. But 1st, a report from imaging kimball, a joint. Hes made solar cells, lithium on, but trees and the metric vehicles are set to double triples and quadruple in price, respectively. In the us, thanks to new trade targets by president boynton. China is not happy. Dont you guys have time to always opposes unilateral tariff increases that violate w t a rules and will take all necessary misses, to safe guidance, legitimate rights and interests facing says the move damage is biological cooperation and its hit back with an anti dumping inquiry into plastic whitening pool 2 from the us, the toy one and japan as a European Union has also launched investigations into chinese impulse. Boynton says he has to protect us was an industry from heavily subsidized chinese experts. If you want to do business with china, you gotta have a 51 percent chinese owner. You gotta provide access to all your intellectual properties. Sometimes its just outright to a few side rest of the knowledge another minute. And its been a well documented and internationally recognized when you make tactics like these and theyre not competing, its not competition as cheating. Boynton is making sure the restrictions in place ahead of the november president ial election may help him in the post. Many voters to unhappy with the us economy. Although his tar its set to be was 18000000000. 00. Are expanding on tires with 300000000000. 00 imposed by former president donald trump. Trump says the us Auto Industry in the face of blood vault if he loses in november and that he will impose a 100 percent terrace, one e cause made outside the us. So long you, since the us only impulse to present their electric vehicles from china, the impact of this policy will be minimal. Im going to affect the overall economy. The bathing says the us aims to stifle joint is green industry. The country is leaning towards clean energy to kind to slump in economic growth. This is one thing that really is to companion iris. You have china and get a degree elections by competing to the to become an unfortunate casualty. Maybe the us is green energy targets, and the 2 superpowers relations, which was already fraction of a minute to activity in the side, the joint to see even was, could be an old i trade will between the 2 global joints of industry, image and came out to 0 for counting the cost as well. Lets take a look at some of the figures. China sold nearly 500000000000. 00 worth of goods to the us last year, but it only imported around 148000000000. 00 worth and return the us imports just 2 percent of its electric vehicles from china. But the figure goes up to the 70 percent for lithium ion batteries. Now the organization for Economic Cooperation and development, the o e. C. D says the chinese manufacturer has received 9 times more states subsidies. So that western counterparts, chinese businesses receive aid, which is the equivalent to 3. 7 percent of the revenues on average compared to only north point 4 percent for firms in high income countries. We have to experts discuss all of this with us. Joining us from the sol in south korea is steven open because the see of a pack advised as a consultancy operating at the intersection of business, government and sustainability. And from brisbin in australia work, powell who was adjunct professor at queens on university of technology and a cd, a fellow at the tight institute, a non government international. Think find tank based in beijing strip of tabby with us. Lets start with you. Then as stephen a, what is the us so worried about chinese goods. Okay. Theyre not worried about chinese goods per say. Theyre worried about chinese goods that come into the us through unfair competition in, in strategic industries. And so to understand the by the administrations actions here and really the trumpet administrations actions before that, youve got to go back a decade. You go back to what china has been doing with its made in china 2025 policy that came out in 2015 were china said it was going to use state subsidies and, and protection to foster width in china, key sectors for the 21st century. Including electric vehicles, including Renewable Energy production that, that policy of china is very successful. And now china has a huge head start into the sectors. And as President Biden said, we need these sectors ourselves in the United States. So to, to compete on a level playing field, we have to put terrorist on those types of sectors. So its not about banning chinese goods. Its not about tara thing, all of chinese goods, as President Trump said he would do it in the 2nd term. Its really looking at those factors that are strategic to the us and, and theyve had unfair subsidies from china, and thats what he did. All right, work what, whats your take on this off chinese subsidies responsible for the decline of Us Manufacturing and industry Us Manufacturing industry has been declining now for other 40 is the 1st sounds of concerns around the industrialization and the following out of American Manufacturing began in the 19 seventys and hasnt stop since the fact of the matter raises that over the last 40 years, the american political economy has 5, but often con, to industries, particularly in financial services, stock exchange, and those sorts of areas instead of industrialization. And now the chickens have come home to roost. Its not like this. The hidden agenda here as your, i would guess, as mentioned, chandra announced in 2015 a political policy privacy around on domestic value adding and moving up the value china. And of course, its being focused on things like electric cars will be full that if people bought repeating the policy documents and the funding instruments coming out of the chinese political system, they would have known this well in advance. Or id steven. Its perhaps no, can i go into them . So this is an election yet in the us. I mean, a bivens moves, politically motivated, you think . Is this a, an attempt to, to, to grab the votes this . Oh, theres no question. Any move by the any administration in the president ial Election Year is going to be looked at through through that election. So that is a given, i think the by not by the administration would argue in this case, but this is good policy and good politics. There is no question that has being tough on china is a positive in the us right now. It ensures a level playing field. It ensures that the United States can have an electric vehicle industry Going Forward in that if it doesnt have these types of tariffs, when there is unfair competition, there isnt going to be an electric vehicle industry in the United States and that is a National Strategic importance wondering what is this going to do though to, to ultimately, to the us economy . Is it going to help or hinder it . Hey, well i, in terms of what, what i do to the us economy in the short term. Its really going to have no impact on the us economy because as we said, there are literally 0 electric vehicles being imported into the United States from china right now. These, these tariffs are mostly, im good. The new tears are mostly on goods that arent coming in yet to ensure that the us industry can have a chance to get off the ground. Because, you know, as the other guest is noted, of us hasnt been investing in infrastructure. And in the, in the United States, as much as it should have been in it. Its trying to do that now. And so its going to give it a chance. The tariffs that have been extended were put into place by donald trump and have been in place for that 300000000000. 00 has been in place for a few years now. So its not going to have any new inflationary impact because that has already taken place, so its not gonna really have any Short Term Impact on, on the economy. Its, unless youre, youre talking about extraordinarily specific factors. Maybe im certain medical devices but, but thats about it. A work. What does this mean for the rest of us . But what happens to the companies for the supply to america using a possibly using chinese produce goods, the Global Supply chains and now increasingly complex and many sophisticated products require inputs from production processes in a number of countries. To untangle all of that is extremely costly with significant cost implications for downstream consumers and enterprises who rely on stable price to supply chains to bring their intermediate goods to them. So the last few years ive seen a lot of rhetoric around the united de risk in this, in the coupling. But the, the, the basic economic and engineering reality is that its easier said than done. Now, the competitive environment, main size of the world is best. So including consumers in, in the process when they can access the least cost inputs for their activities that they need. So they can actually proceed to do what they do that. And um, and i think in, in, in due course of those have to shoot a rational Economic Policy framework as opposed to jumping on the short term political cycle bandwagon will deliver real dividends for their economies and for the communities. And what, because the buy side that i care about, i work with us at w t o fit into to one of this. Well, the w t i, its been frustrated over the past 6 plus years by the United States, which was frankly going rogue, in terms of the, the global trade regulatory framework. Since of 2018, the United States has stymied the appointment on top judges to the f, a light dispute resolution process as the w to youve got it and continues to do size. This is very unhelpful for the w t r. The 2nd point to remember about the w t, i was that the United States actually has the mice, complaints against the whole country, some products with the, with the last. So i checked the w t. I website, there was some kind of the 71 compliance launched against us products of the you have seen for memory about 12506 in china was well back in the pack with 14 on. So when it comes to say we took participating in terms of fame because were talking about questions or fan us and and, and participation and i can try the us itself as clearly bane arrive plan for quite some time stating final what do you then how do you respond to that the, that the us has been a rope plan for some time. Its going rogue a lot in, in, in the 21st century. You have to take into account National Security when it comes to trade in economics. And that had not been the case previously. And now when youre a country and youre looking at what is going to happen if theres a panoramic and we have all of our sourcing from one country and we cant get in the medical in pharmaceuticals that we need and we cant get in in terms of Climate Change and, and addressing that on the Critical Minerals that we need. Well then that becomes a National Security issue, and there has always been a National Security exemption when it comes to the w t o. It is a different world now and theres, theres no question that that countries are looking at trade differently. Theyre looking at the w t o different weights. And that is what is going to make this competition and confrontation between between the us and china. You know, so, fraud and, you know, one of the worries Going Forward is the United States believes that can confront china where it needs to be confronted, such as its doing on these tears. But that it can also cooperate with china. And of course, the most important issue the world is facing, which is the Climate Crisis. Now the question is, will china except that framework will china except the tariffs coming in, but also cooperate with the United States at the, at the same time. So we really are unimpressive piece of where trade and National Security are intersecting within the Climate Crisis that that is, it should be a concern to everybody gentlemen, but im afraid were going to have to leave it many thanks. Indeed stephen opened and work, paul. So the old cuban saying goes without sugar, there is no country, its cuba was the, was top sugar exports of a hundreds of years, and the industry was the main driver of the economy boss. The island has been under us sanctions for decades. And that impulse is affected the sugarcane harvest. We just hit its lowest level since 1900. Once on thinkable, the island now imports sugar to meet its demand. Last season, cubis production fell to an all time low of 350000 tons of low sugar. Thats well below the 1300000 tons recorded in 2019 farm pin sugar outputs impacts other sectors of the cuban economy, including its export earnings. From rum, less than 3 percent of states. Investment goes to the sugar industry. Well, the collapse of the sugar industry is just one aspect of cubis faltering economy, the island, the suffering. Its west economic crisis since the collapse of the soviet union. In 1991. The Tourism Industry has dried up since the cobit 19 pandemic. Depriving the island of as much as 3000000000. 00 annually. Foreign currency is in short supply. The peso is lost many hofords value against the dollar in 2024 alone. The governments budget gap is projected to increase to 18 and a half percent of economic output. This year, inflation is running a board of 30 percent. Thats more than twice from latin america, regional average. And the average salary for cuban state workers is now less than 16. 00 a month. When in response to the crisis, the cuban government does announce tough economic measures that include raising the price of fuel by more than 500 percent and coughing subsidies for staples like eggs and rice except for those deep, vulnerable fuel power, mid some milk and other food items are in short supply. In march, the government to us b, u. Ns food program for help. For the 1st time, a mess owns the children are supposed to get 3 kilograms of milk month, but now they are only given 1. 5 kilograms a month. And then the answer that its milk, i cant remember the last time i drink mil, its very expensive. Only people died. Although we have difficulties, were still alive, like we cuban se includes the month before they used to get 2. 00 q those of rice per person per month. Now theyve given nearly half of kilo of rice per person per month. And thats when its available. Joining us now from london, emily morris, an economist and Research Fellow at the University College of londons institute of the americas. Good to have you with assembly. So why it has cubis show the industry collapse a us sanctions to blame or is it mismanagement . Essentially what happened is, but previously sugar on the soviet system was heavily subsidized. In effect, they would have kind of bought the system where they got cheap fuel and return to the show that um so now that having to compete well market prices sport prices because they dont have any um, contracts with anybody. Um is actually not the comic. I mean, the sugar industry is not economic, its not, its now only accounts for less than 2 percent of total x full earnings. So yeah, in 1990 it was or the 70 percent. So thats the extent of the collapse of the sugar industry. So. So in the sense the reduction in production for the Macro Economy isnt that important . But i think psychologically its important. Gibbons like everybody else think that the cuban economy is dependent on show that people have a kind of historical memory. And every year the government publishes its target for the sugar production. And once again, and it happens practically every year since ive been covering to. But the last 2 years the target has missed. And so that has a psychological effect on anything that reduces export. Earnings is significant because of the type of 2 of Us Foreign Exchange constraint emulate then how can cubes, why the economic problems be addressed . Kindly be fixed . Well, its a very, very difficult problem because of the constraints on to them. Foreign exchange of things are extreme not only because of the collapse of tourism and but also because of the us sanctions, tomato, just for the trade with obviously the chip is natural trading. Paula, but they also prevent trade with other apartments. And not only do they reduce the availability of Foreign Exchange, but they also result in the cancellation of contracts. Um uh, ships arriving at short notice. So this extreme disruption, as well as extreme type for an exchange constraint. Um, so what happened during the coverage um pandemic . Was essentially to go through Everything Else in 2020. They did incredibly well in terms of the number people got pills and so on and 20 to 20. But they exhausted the Foreign Exchange is us. And so by 2021 they had nothing left. And so then now scrambling to try to meet the obligations that theyve taken on. I mean like one of the bill interviewees, the side theres an expectation. Gibbons expect the government to get them um, extremely cheap uh, russians supplies. And so the government has a commitment to do so, but given that its built very little for an exchange, its a struggle to do that all the time. And so whats the solution . The solution is to build up the Foreign Exchange earnings. They need to diversify the economy. Thats been in the substitute for a long time. In a sense, the recovery from the collapse of the soviet system was built on just a few items. It was very concentrated in nickel tourism, the professional services. Im really they diversification and that seems to be what theyre pushing for, but trying to diversify to restructure the economy in the context of very, very little Forward Exchange is extremely difficult. Whats life like for me cubans right now, as well as you saw that, you know, life is not just age, you know they, they have very, very basic supplies of food, which is not as much as they used to. They have to choose an awful lot. They kind of upset to the inflation is very worrying for people on fixed incomes. You know, with that kind of go next, the prices, my markets a very, very high. But its not even just that its not on a queuing but its also the transport issue. Theres, theres not enough fuel the buses are all broken down. Um, so every day life is extremely difficult. They also have power cuts regularly. Um, but having said that, you know, sometimes is portrayed as if everything is about to collapse. And actually as you see from those pictures, people know they havent lost weight like i did in the 199 twos. There are supplies there is manageable, but its very, very difficult. And now of course i got a huge heat wave which makes life even more impossible when you havent got air conditioning so on. So that really suffering and really frustrated because theres so many ideas theyve opened up the private sector. So its really possible for people to do things, but they have the finance and really, really good to talk to you on counting the cost Manufacturing Day for being with us. Thank you very much. I finally, the needed to make wind turbines, electric vehicles, and other green technologies, Minerals Like culpa. Lets see. Im a cobalt or in high demand, as many nations trying to make the transition to clean energy, but the International Energy agency says the world faces a shortage of those minerals, literally 70 percent of Global Demand for culpa and 50 percent for lithium. Expected to be met by 2045. The prices of some of the elements fell sharply last year following 2 years of increases. The i a since the drop in price is, is discouraging investment in the mining of minerals. The parents based agency, full costs of the investors, need to put Something Like 800000000000. 00 into mining projects by 2040 to try to limit the rise in Global Temperatures to one of the half degrees celsius bought a handful of nations and Companies Control their extraction, china, for example mines most of the rest of materials. Joining us not from london id love to use the managing director of supply Chain Insights godaddy was assigned to whats going on there within this industry. Why . At the moment a mine is failing to meet the amount. I mean, the huge issue that this industry has is trying to match the slide with the wrong. What do you consider that it takes years to find and then the mine and get that into production . That is applied to the question, what was the bottom side could change in a matter of weeks. So its incredibly difficult to get eyes to match. And the way that the market that matches the is by having price spiteful price declines, which again makes it difficult about the investment cycle. Sorry about what we see the money that we have a huge fine to meet the price is. So can i respond to that process or crash the same thing time a call . So everything across by can call the rate will take a little while to the investment to come through, but not sure about the box. I think its been the rules particularly rare or difficult to extract. No, i mean theres no geological shortage of any of the critical most that we need for the Energy Transition to the barriers in, in traffic. So its a private saying that these operations are in some places in political well as well. So these are the challenges that can be met, but not is the manageable duty funding. And they, they probably need Government Intervention as well. John United States relying surely on that the market and Mining Companies will see assigning to increase the charges that we need for the Energy Transition. Those are some of the above a china of the above it is mining. Most of these were a minerals, one of the changes in that you know, since the time that i get the digital trend of the guidelines, i should and, well, what weve seen is been signal points inside here in the supply chain about welcome uh, you know, particularly in the west, and while the resources themselves very geographically divest, trying to build off a huge amount of Processing Capacity and things like, find the author accept true. And that single, quite frankly, just isnt status as politically acceptable. So what were seeing is, uh the west trying to effectively do secondaries of contracts for these materials. Not always the types of money and where youve gotten established markets, which are in, on the supply and my margins, the commercial incentive for private industry to develop a secondary supply chain is necessary that so again, it comes back to the governments needing to get involved to provide, get it changed resources to, to treat that capital. So you have to make those investments. I mean, what does all of this mean for consumers like you and i, i say in some respects the same is uh, sheltered from, from the price increases. You know, the price lithium dough, it doesnt necessarily reflect in the price will be right after the bank or not, that the company is effectively do take hold of that policy. Lets say that policy, lets see, is the, is no surprise when it comes to making these thoughts have investments. So i think drop the price a little bit of offsets and see, were also facing the impact that is they dont make these investments and balance of mind to bonds. They may be around, so hoss would be energy trans issue. And you know, when you look at trying to change, the easiest way to reduce emissions is a electrification i have an attraction of transport. Expectation of people buying the industries and the government needs Critical Minerals. It needs transmission lines need to call her. The dispatcher is the story about how the g around, you know, if we talk to that, then its going to be a charged me product goals and the spring grades total accounts and the costs many sites indeed for being with us. Thank you. Thats all show for this week. If youd like to comment on anything that youve seen, im in a sent again on x, please try to remember to use the hash tag h a. So you can see, or you can drop is a line counting, the cost of elders 0 dont met is a email address, as always, has plenty more, few online at elder 0 dot com slash ctc. That takes you straight to the page. Today youll find individual reports links at the top episodes for you to capture but thats it for this edition of counting the cost on adrian. Instead of going through the whole team here, thanks for being with us. The news on elder 0 is next. So thats where it says heading to the polls. What, what could be the biggest shakeup in the region in decades with 30 is the african national. Congress has held power, but now it faces its biggest election bethel sofa join. Us says you bring you live updates from across the country. So thats the election. I know to their pod came in to be israel and obstacles piece. I think that the new thing, the f one, his government with these 5 digit you say getting russell, a thought provoking. Odd since the e you made weapons being used in gaza, no doubt. It should be used in an offensive way. Thats our facing realities. Youre running, mean what does he bring to the table . Hard from being president ial, could we go to some we cannot take the fact that he was signing a present as not that important factor. He had the story on talked to al jazeera, the you will see the caught a duty in a grove using for p use a caught, to contribute to improving the lives of thousands of our projects except the cost. And we strive to ensure it reaches its deserving recipients, visit the costs are requested. And remember, its a copier size, wealth, and increases systems. Costs on red chris the, the lens, Top Court Orders israel to immediately stop its military operation and rough butler and to allow aid into gaza. The flow. Im marianne y z. This is al jazeera life from dough house are coming up on the program. In defiance of the International Course of justice, israel continues to attack raw fox targeting a crowded refugee camp. While the ministries