Into the region has prompted phase among western allies of a major assault on how to cave. Well, the city is ukraine, 2nd largest, located just 1st eco on. This is south of the russian border when rusher invited in 2022. Its all just crossed into the how to keep region. Months later, the ukranian counsellor offensive full Russian Troops to retreat, but selling and bombardment has continued. Now the russians a back can say theyve taken 9 villages in the matter of days. Is the crime in ami on the back foot while trying to defend a 1000 kilometer from line . The delay and us moved to a proof to be a turning point in the well, well discuss these questions and more with, i guess in just a moment. But 1st, this report from imaging came to the russian army is advancing ne, in ukraine, that its false. This pace in more than 2 years since friday, it says, troops of taken knowing villages in the call, key region on the folder according to the gulf. Now im moving full size and people a big move to safety. But the method you will with that im finding is taking place 500 maces from my house. The volunteer river is 500 meters away from my house, and the russians are on the other side. Ukrainian tanks rolling suits and roll out. There was shouting all the time, military orders. You can hear people being captured. Shells are flying, constantly, dying and not pregnant. What does this mans village both chance is under ukrainian or russian control is disputed. Ukrainian, omi says its fighting back. Rocher was suffering heavy doses with around 100. Its so just killed for the president , concedes the situation is difficult to have Daniel National actually not the most of the to we need to inflict as many losses on the Occupying Forces as possible on the conditions on the outskirts of the city of, of chance are extremely challenging the cities under constant russian font and a military launch encounter with tax on he added conditions a similarly, the internet says russian strategy could be to stretch ukrainian troops being on the ground across the border in russia. Ukraine shilling on belgrade, killed several people that the weekend. I mean, it sounds good for me is just the we provided 1st aid and evacuated over people from the building. The people having breakdowns that was panic as syria started here calling their goal. My grandmother is wanting most go. President Vladimir Putin is re shuffling his cabinet. You know, a lot of the cycle long time ally. So guy show you to us defense minister as ive seen, the so called special minute to a peroration ukraine. Now had the National Security council, hes expected to be replaced by andre peluso, a former deputy Prime Minister and economist, suggesting the president is looking to focus on the defense ministries finances. But ukraines biggest concern is the late to supply of us weapons. Without it, soldiers will be all right, mind and ive gone vulnerable to the russian ponces image and kinda out to 0. The inside story, the light spring, i guess into the show now have joining us from odessa you crane honda shalas Security StudiesProgram Director at ukrainian prison, a Foreign Policy and security think tank in vienna. Roger hilton, as a defense and security fellow at the globe sack, a Global Think Tank focusing on security and sustainability and in moscow. Capital feldman, however, as an independent Russian Defense and ministry analysts good to have you with us. Let me start with have a. We know the situation is serious right now and how the case, how serious is it, is called a cave on the verge of fully never leave. We speak about the future of car q. We are very far um, not close to that. Weve been before involved to the following. You need to understand that the city of more than one medium, not the same as the small villagers or tall thatd be under the fire before color. Were definitely that is the new front line. Some parts of wed be in the aptitude even the last 6 months is, but that is the new developments because the new Russian Forces came with the uh, white attack. I will uh, probably, uh characterize it as so. So in this case, it is just taking off a lot of all the Defense Forces of the premium, the armed forces from the east, the prob, uh, to the northern prong. So in these case, with just how the new hauled support and the a longer prompt line that we had, even before, people do agree with that. How is russia pretty far from capturing the entire region, let alone, how to give city of 1000000 people as kind of pointed out to the Russian Forces across the border. They have been in this part of our blast in 20 to 10 minute, retreated them the front line. It was not really a front, but it was the border. So there was not much troop separation from the premium sign. And so the russians moved in again, are probing. Do you pray in defenses of the printer right now, theres a kind of mo bile skirmishes happening. They are several to wal mart. Theres from the cranium border. No, this is not very close to carter city. So this is kind of uh uh, we come through that whole situation may be rush, were throwing more forces in trying to push seriously. But right now its a crime this uh, up to free cron operation on the, on the board. There may be the city of bo jones, russia says its already there. Youre creating a dispute at the city as for and thats a small town on the border. So right now its not yet developing into a major back the size of that, but then show roger. One thing i think everybody agrees in is that the time has changed. What is as russia down in order to change the situation around in places like hockey or, i think ive been an issue in the sense that youre insinuating that russia is taking the drive on this. I mean, the conflict between russian and the credit is so much more than just the battlefield in the east. And while the last couple of days, russia has been able to occupy 9 or 10 villages. And it is nowhere near has the mine power to theoretically take heart eve. There has been so much else going on about successes of ukraine where i think the media is focusing too much on this one spot right here. Just last thursday, you credit for all the is a not driven by the statements then of ukraine. It officials themselves who sides the situation is very difficult in hotkeys. They seem to indicate that, you know, they are on the back for that. Absolutely. I am totally not mean that is a tough log in to add to at the moment of north and that they try to repossess forces. But if this is the best that russian has been able to put together, what were the last 6 months when ukrainians audience lowest, its actually quite an inspiring position right now. Thats not to say that heavy loss of the previous case, you were given the string, the advantage that in russia, i would have expected them to do much better than where they are right now. Okay, let me bring in powell, for your perspective on that to all the advances in gains by russia actually over blown low russia is pushing forward. The place is not going to be part of a person that doing boss with a moderate success with student success. Now theres hope that in moscow that these pushes the venture with we to a snap and morale of ukrainian motor tree Ukrainian Society and the premium from the line will begin to collapse. Oh dear, even the so right, that was such a disastrous for you. Great. And then the west scenario. Well, bush should be the premiums over there in the western allies. Seek some kind of bridge pro well with the russia to stop the slow but to spread the rushing of bands and get some kind of serious prior swords on the back of your base, more or less on the present. And ive been shot. I do want to pick up later on the what this means for the prospect of diplomacy and talks about before we go down that road. Lets take it back to honda and honda. What impact is the russian advance and how to keep actually having at this moment all ukrainian force is being over stretched over and increasingly long frontline, you know, we probably need to make lots tab uh behind um to understand the moment why these comforter funds are happening. Right now, because for ross, or it is the very narrow timing when the count has gone so uh before your payment received all those weapons that been delayed by the us. And finally, the congress adopted a decision to the artillery, 1st of all, their killer emanation that your brain be missing for the last 6 months to start the to ride to ukraine, bloss were expecting, and approximately a month of 16 as blocked in june. The check initiative with emanation also stop delivery to russian understands the may is the best models when the b is to eula um in circle. So ill munition convert to ukraine. Ready to the needs to make a big push with all the forces before you pray and received a series backup. And in this case, i know were getting close to it. So i mean point is that what youre saying is, is this one way or another attorney point a to brush and make some big gains all the ukrainians will when they get americans supplies. Definitely do russia will not be able to take the big bank at least with what we see now with those forces economy and with those losses they have owned abroad. So it seems to, even from the tactics that they chose in the market region that the beat occupational, the New Territories is northwards. They are really searching for this traction. Go to create the courses and to meet for your grading enforce. Its more difficult to start to counter offense as soon as they receive the immunization. Yeah, thats can do bottled, the prime are all goals but also demonstration that they can go for the mood, the town that theyve been trying to reach you by for 9 months as a default to just destroy the child. So you kind of name it as a normal occupation, but they also need to the president ial elections to the new team, old new team that got and now the demonstration of a certain success. Thats because the previous months was they werent below 12, uh, tailors even crania, and we know that quite me is very symbolic for russia still, the needed to show or k, youre charging cost in premium. We will do it to where you feel vulnerable, and thats appears to be the target bridge. And roger is the some concern. However, you frame this one as whether its over blown by the media not is the concern of, of the psychological impact of seeing images once again, what appears to be Russian Troops. Re taking parts of the hockey region. People having to flee, being bossed out of the homes and pulled up in all the places in no way, am i trying to diminish the impact, the villagers who have had to leave and sort of a really let me know all of this for over 800 days and todays war now everybody, i think that just because theres been this temporary seizure, disability at the resting forces, ive had to come and rescue people and take them away. Do you think that thats gonna happen, jean changing expect on them around the troops . I just dont buy it and you know, position the massive around that will be coming to you print in the forms of both the largest british a package and the american a package will surely sort of carry them over and its very tough moment. So im not buying that, you know, just because of these very tempt images and of course, the loss of ukrainian life. I dont think its gonna sort of be such a huge detriment to the performance and holding the line a puzzle. What is the russian aim then . Im sure youve heard the comments of our other guests as well as others have said. Russia hasnt amassed enough troops to take how to keep in its entirety. Because russia in your reading one to take how to keep as a whole simply to spread out those ukrainian lines. Oh hello. Its in the military practice to pro the and then me why do find we places for the top or 2 and that these and then split these opportunities up to now be offensive for me. Hot, the for region is not major by the number of troops actually involved. There are Russian Reserve has to be fine lines that should reinforce maybe they will do so maybe not. Maybe that will be right here. You pressure will try advancing another place is to seeking out a weak spots in the cranium defensive. I mean you bring in morale because the main russian messages that russia is unbeatable, that the praying and resistance is futile. That rather they may fight, but they cannot basically stop pressure because its bigger. It has more men, more if the plant marshalls and the to be better for the agree that for the west to find some kind of a diplomatic solution that would uh, if not, we utilize the 3. Uh, uh, uh, how do you find the present situation . I make it or something to some kind of may be ceasefire for some people. Just listen to that. Then im wondering, do you think the, the russian minute free thinking buys into the argument that russia sees a window of opportunity that is closing before major weston supplies kicking it was, there was such a rush. Im a prime, this, the bloggers are writing about that the pressure has a window of opportunity. You know, its not, theyre not talking about several months, but maybe a couple of years. Why the west and efforts to increase defense production really begin to pay off. Maybe in a year, year and a half in when youre up in north america, theyll be getting mass. So were producing on some conventional weapons and russia will be in the serious situation. Because mashing bad, is it not an easy task at all sense . Russian. A g, b, b is a 100 times less than b is some of the g d, b. That will be a ramstein, a ukrainian allies. So this is the brush up, find the way to and this prompts wait in the common a year, a year and a half because if about brags on red, rushed in as a war of attrition rush. It will be a very serious disadvantage. How that, how much concern is that, that these kinds of operations and advances by Russian Forces could stress in ukrainian supply lines in places like just the v off a. Just so your ease and not the small town. And the question is that ukraine says that the bottom of these word tried to diversify logistics because we perfectly understood that the long legs of logistics or the concentration jobs on one or 2 directions will definitely become the ultimate goal of the russian. The text that just the classics, thats why you see that there are a lot of, of the different small legs and very weak the delivery of the supply. Thats why the last months theyve been to many attacks against the Railway System because the railway is definitely quite a well developed and several b railway. Yeah, ill know the stations being attacked by the russian me files, and that is happening most only around the trusted your because there is over the easy, its deliberate in terms of necessity with the other means of transportation. But youll also see these attacks in the west time ukraine. They are coming predominantly either against the Energy System or against the Railway System. And the same for odessa, a lot of going to the board because that is the idea that the supplies are happening also, or through the boards for these uh, from romania to your brain by loud to all of these. So all attacks against logistics, b, b, y, unexpected. And thats why you have as many as possible, the wards and chains of transportation and logistics to the east. I wonder if we take the question now to roger of how will the west react to whats going on. Weve heard statements from some of the west and leaders like that of the united kingdom, the the font, the secretary told you about how serious the situation and critical moments it is will that fines they do think into a change of policy every calling place regardless of what it is has moments of up and down, and right now the premiums are down, but every message that is being sent out now says were gonna stick with you printing wireless at a low point and things will get better. You know, just like the packages that cost, for instance, there is no wrong trend, you know, uh, in europe at this point from the, the, the seizure of russian frozen assets, which is super important with the rebuff that was passed. So i dont see any reason to think that just because of this moment happening in our key, the policy makers. Why dont we say we need to force a piece uh on the printer. Most importantly, you have very low members of the european union. The politics pull and then you check president peter call farmer, chairman of benito military committee. This is not going to be a one off decision made by one or 2 states french. And i know my cause been very forthcoming now about you know, the, the need for you cant win on this. So again, i am not at the position that just because you, you know, your credit is in the dark right now. That it was that policy makers hold on them any time soon. I all right, ive always had a change of god, so to speak, and the Russian Defense ministry. What does that tell us . Do you think . What can we read into that when it comes to Russian Ministry thinking Going Forward . I believe the kremlin says a month. It is a kind of revolutionary for russia. This never happened before. For a civilian economist and Economic Advisor administered to be big from defense minister without the united states. There was robert amara to transform the the bent again the time, also war and yet, um, but not in russia unless it was made. Thats what the crime and also confirms because this is a war of attrition. Its dependent on their economy. Russia is mobilizing its to come out of my defense potential. The west is doing the same, but of course a rush is already up to 7 percent of g d, b defense spending. The wes, this kind of thing, of course, in percentage terms, much less, but the west has much margie. Theyd be a 100 times more. So the economy disappeared, the so new defense spent, us to rebuild stuff is going to be dropped off. This is main task is to mobilize for the Rushing Defense industry. Mentally, the defense in the industry were after with industry is also an economist. That means he speaks the same language as be liberal part of the economic part of the bush and the government. So he can mobilize them to, to put all the effort to match the western mobilization of resources with russia, mobilization and demonstrate to the west that russia cannot be defeated. The deal all the way forwards is a diplomatic solution thats, thats quite a challenge. Hes got ahead of him. Im wondering. So yes, thats a, a shift in thinking somewhat going on on the russian side. Hannah, is there a shift in ukrainian tactics going on . The last few months weve seen increasing a tax on targets inside russia and yesterday of coal. So weve seen a tax on what the russians have reported as civilian buildings like that of bel goldwaire, a number of civilians, russia said were killed. I will side from the very end because even the Russian Media adopted significantly because uh, there were no attack against the builder applied to these and that the building was definitely digital to the Ukrainian Armed forces us attack wherever definitely you are right. The last months Ukrainian Armed forces a better to say, to secure to services, intensified attacks in russia. But all of them happening, you know, its against the military objects that can be either enterprises producing drugs, for example, of psalm equipment for the military. But predominantly the um, the uh, plans uh for Oil Refineries. Why the reason is very simple. We im not targeting the uh, oil itself, but only the Oil Refineries thats from wherever i should got quite a significant even golf for the stage budget as the budget means military budget. Considering that the comics on shows 1st will be energy sanctions if youre not so successful because india and china were eager to buy the discounts at the Russian Energy sources. So that became the message called 2 limits, the russian even call. And the 2nd is definitely because the armed forces needs, uh, uh, any type of petrol be more than an army kind of be without it. So the problems with the, uh, refined, uh, uh, patrol of the latrete sides. It means that the armed forces will also have the problems with supply. So in this case, we really uh, stored the results not with the price is so the oil of the World Markets as this time economy squared freight bought with the possibilities of rush or to export the Energy Resources, or by the say we find Energy Resources of the world market raja at the end of the day when you, when you read the situation have a much, much more west tonight comes in to however much more targeting the rates of the Russian Energy facilities. Is ukraine handicapped by lack of manpower . Well, i mean, its a, its a very complicated question and i think kind of will agree that you know, in about a months time or maybe 6 weeks, this new construction line, this new construction, although im going to affect, i mean, well be able to sort of generate more man power and some of the european nations are working with the purchaser to bring back companion soldiers for the fighting. Of course, the manpower is one sided by that, but the issue with that, like, by doing this is written by pushing you print to make a piece with you print its. Thats an unbelievably dangerous precedent. Not just in europe or china for other retired politics. That is really dominating the landscape right now. So of course, for the foreseeable future, your training will have to be above and beyond in terms of its performance. If it is kind of talking united troops. But assuming the will to fight is there a new a package will be coming on, and in any circumstance, it will be ukraine, who will decide when they want to make peace with russia, not by anybody else. All right, let me bring in tampa. Leslie, weve got a couple of minutes left panel is part of the russian advances that were seeing to try and count to the increasing attacks that were seeing on russian territory. Do the advances in places like how to keep and elsewhere. I mean, in the russian thinking, the possibility of, of less attacks on the russian territory. I know how to pointed out that he doesnt believe that ukraine is having officially taken responsibility for what happened at that civilian building in belgrade. But the russian officials have spoken about it as a frame, the as a rush, as though youve training an attack rather low use the russian president vladimir both in for said that we should just absolute sure. Im the buffers um on the premium find the more there. So the brain could not fade right. Targets inside russia its, its maybe the person to talk to over the border is to establish some kind of such buffer zone. But its not, wow, its easy go to the side where thats border and spare that zone and, and watch russian then whats not russia. And of course, your brand has being demonstrated its capability, different targets. What was the international, the most powerful, right . I guess made it literally just mall tech nicole uh an era of drones and rockets, you know, what is it not present . Running the straight to the abilities the back way beyond the whole, the more offices. So it means the where should that border buffer zone then the publish border . I dont know. So i mean good, but such a good week to push the ukrainians in a position where they can use our storage ahead brushing their trim may be but thats kind of going to be a slippery slope, i would say. But pushing in general when you have the advantages that make sense. So thats what the rest of may, what youre going to do and the pride to see whats going to come of age. Oh, this is how you know, a recon through power. The refund is made and then you war. This is class that goes by. All right, im afraid were out of time, so were going to have to find call guess for that contributions kind of show us roger hilton and purple falcon, how im find q 214. You can see the show again, any time by visiting our website. Ill just 0, dont com. And for further discussion head over to our facebook page, thats facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story. Kind of also joined the conversation on x l. A handle that is at a j inside story. From me, sammys i that and the whole team here for now, lets go by in a meeting of mine, the tragedy for me, of a democratic solve effort there. Its how quickly we sort of adopted the very told re global, know the intertwining of money and politics. Campaigner andrew fine, state and photographer shock you do on on active is under crisis and gone. So what is happening today is happening on our watch. The news from now there will be people asking, how did you let it happen . Studio will be on scripted part one on on disease the pesticides is or im telling you navigate over the check on your world headlines, palestinian our group say theyve made 33. 00 attacks on is really forces in the last 24 hours. Thats the highest number in a single day since the beginning of this year is really forced to say theyre now deep in the heart of is a bad the city of northern gaza as theyve intensified their attacks. Many civilians, there had been trapped inside un schools and other buildings. The u. N says nearly 450000 people have not been forcibly displaced from buff