A red alert, highest warning officer streets can be of incentive flooded schools and businesses have been shot and some Public Transportation suspended elsewhere. And from dont provence, the rain has east and people are assessing the damage. Flooded fields are all thats left of hong jingle and spun. I used to plan right here, but now its all flooded. Flooded beyond repair. To city tiguan was among the hardest hit days of heavy rain caused nearby rivers to burst their backs. Forcing kim and his neighbors to take shelter under an overpass with the few possessions they have left within 110000 people has been relocated since the weekend. The parts of the north and blowing down are also under water rescue. Teams are scouring the city, searching for the 38000 people, still stranded, dozens for injured and needed to be lifted. Tulsa battled the neighboring provinces of funky young c and who 9 are also on high alert, signed to say, Climate Change has caused seasonal storms to worsen and to rise earlier with asia. One of the regions most affected by global warming, katrina, you all to 0. That these 5 people, including a child have died while trying to cross the English Channel from fonts to the u. K. The small boat that they were on was carrying more than a 100 refugees and migrants versus border force. Volunteer boat carried several people to shore, while french authorities, so they have rescued at least 47 others. Thats it, somebody elizabeth put on them for this half hour. Stay with us. The boston line is coming up next. Thank you for watching the now, Scientists Say primates remain crucial for biomedical research, the but some of being given new lives beyond the bodies on the outskirts of virus is nothing in the century for all kinds of fine to move, including those ones used in Scientific Research the century houses 22 retired lab monkeys from across europe. This female recess mcgarr cause can survive 19 years of experimentation in french labs. She was the 1st lab funky to be given a new form at lot then yet a hi. Im Steve Clements and i have a question. Is israels war on guys becoming a forever war . And now with an exchange of direct attacks between iran and israel is itd be coming a dangerously expanding conflict. Lets get to the bottom line. The. It was a limited strike, but the rubicon has been crossed. Iran launched a few 100 drones in missiles and israel after Israel Attacked in Iranian Diplomatic Mission in syria and killed some of it stop generals. Then israel fired rockets into iran, not doing significant damage, but nonetheless, and get this. Israel and iran are now overly targeting each others homelands. Directly. It prove that the rules of the game in the middle east are changing, especially after israel responded to a rons response. And with the failure of the worlds big powers, especially the United States, to achieve a ceasefire and gaza is further escalation, inevitable. Today were talking with some of my dc professor of history at the university of california and author of faith misplaced the broken promise of us error relations. And ality via is iran project director at the International Crisis group. Thank you both for joining us today. Let me just start with you. Allie. You wrote a week ago, oppression articles, thing in the middle east could still explode. This was before israel had launched a rock into the run. I might call that, you know, strike given the little damage is one sort of a polite strike after this. But what his change now in the not only in the gaza is real crisis, but in the regional dynamics, particularly between iran and israel. Its good to be with you, steve. Look in any geostrategic competition. The most dangerous moment is when the party start changing the rules of the game is or across the line by attacking your arms console it in damascus. And then iran cross the line for the 1st time in the past 45 years by directly attacking israel from its own territory. So as a now israel has of course responded, but it has responded still in a limited and stealthy fashion, which i think still falls within the previous rules of the game of combat thing, iran and the great zone of their competition. So one can conclude that this chapter is closed, but im not sure if the parties have the same understanding of what are the new red lines. What are the new rules of the game and in that be great to you. I think there is plenty of space for miscalculation and of course the approximate cause for these tensions which was the war and gaza is ongoing and there is currently no end and side. And so there is still plenty of risk for expansion of that complex and regional conflagration. I know youve just said that this chapter is probably close, but what is the next chapter looked like potentially in the region given the fact that the underlying instability with cause it continues. There are plenty of risk. First of all, we still dont know for sure. If the attack that is ro, as conducted on iran firing 3, midsize into a ministry base and its behind it is a one off or is it previewed for more attacks to com. That is still not clear. Second, at some point, israel would enter into rasa. I think that seems inevitable. And when that happens, given the humanitarian situation in gaza, it is quite possible that we would see increase tensions iranian back to groups in iraq in syria. My resume attacks on us forces that they have now stop since late february. And theres also the possibility that at certain point we would see a complex ration between israel and his butler. I mean, they are now so at a low level of complex. But i think these raise are extremely uncomfortable living right next door to his boss capabilities, given the trauma of october 7th. And if it ends up in a confrontation with his will again, given the unclear new rules of the game, there is a risk of another round of escalation with iran. And now that both parties have done unprecedented things targeting you try to directly, i think the risks are much higher and both they run an israel by the way, have demonstrated in the past few weeks that they dont have a clear understanding of one another. I think its now clear that israel target it runs consulate, expecting that iran would just absorb the attack and would not respond. And iran targeted israel, thinking that is ro is not going to respond, which in both cases have turned out to be an accurate for professor my dc. I really just a couple of months before october 7th, there was this active period of diplomacy around expanding potentially the abraham accords, perhaps greeting and normalization between saudi arabia and israel. Tell us about how normally october 7th, but the ron is real exchange. Tell us what the middle east looks like now at this moment compared to 9 months ago as well. I mean obviously it depends where you are in the middle east, but the starting and gaza, i mean its ground 0 for a catastrophe. A genocide that the United States has funded equipped apologize for enabled, continued essentially. So you were asked at the beginning of the forever war is quite clear that this war has been going on on the palestinians for decades and decades since the next above 1948. And arguably, since the creation of the british mandate in palestine, and as long as that sort of that core issue, the issue of the injustice of the palestinians, the issue of their oppression, the issue of their state looseness, the total abandonment by the United States. Of course, by israel, but also by the arab states of the palestinians. If not, continues, were going to see more and more of this conflict. So i think thats a situation thats the, thats the, thats the, the tinderbox that, that leads to the kinds of continual flareups that we see in other parts of the middle east. There are other conflicts, obviously that are not tied necessarily to pablos time, but the core issue has to be resolved. And were seeing a massive, extraordinary failure of leadership, of imagination and frankly, of racism on the part of the United States towards the palestinians. So thats where we are right now and the wrong and israel and their sort of shadow or, and their direct whereas your other guests are, they just mentioned. Thats just another element of escalation in an already intolerable situation. Now we know that there had been findings within the state department that indicate that certain is really military units have engaged, potentially, and extra judicial killings and other human rights violations, into specific individuals and Companies Inside the israeli forces. I guess my question to you is, given the fact that there had been so such a little moving and such little success by the president of the United States even in trying to retain his well even trying to restrain is real on this issue of attacking iran what is the us hand in this anymore . It from your perspective. I mean the us hand is direct and total complicity. Its not that the us cant restrain, as well as the us doesnt restrict israel after all. I mean, and you could say there are domestic reasons. For that, there is a lobby, there is ideology, there is, there is whatever. There are many Different Reasons why the us doesnt strain israel, but its not that the us cant restraint as well. I think the bottom line of all this is that there is been a consistent us policy of marginalizing the palestinians, ignoring palest, sending oppression, ignoring publicity and suffering, trying to build a regional sort of architecture of domination that ignores the people of the region. All the peoples of the region, frankly, their democratic aspirations, their desires to be free, and instead to sort of cement the relationship between arab despotism on the one hand. And israel, which oppresses and colonize as the palestinians on the other. And the issue really goes back to decades of u. S. Foreign policy in the sense that the us feels and is felt for decades. That it can get away with, with the basic form in that which is extracting petroleum and, and dominating the middle east, strategic geographic areas at the same time, forcing israel, as it is, as it reveals itself to the entire world today. On the hour of populations, irrespective of their wishes, irrespective of their desires, irrespective of the desires of freedom. And so far, they feel theyre able to maintain this, this policy. And until that changes, were not going to see any kind of peace or any kind of security or any kind of stability, frankly, in the middle east, you cannot build stability on the basis of profoundly immoral, unstable foundations alley. Um, so is that something that caught my eye ear and very important, i think that even arab states had been somewhat on the sidelines of this conflict, have not taken actions that would necessarily lead to a resolution of justice. And at the end, some potential statewood for palestine. I guess my question is were writing now potentially making the mistake of completing the is really wrong conflict with the as rare is real guys a conflict. Theyre both happening at the same time. I look at the minute as an escalation from israels perspective, but how high on the priority map for iran is the palestinian crisis . A. Unfortunately, i think the palestinian cause is a tool for iran. Iran in the early 19 eighties in the midst of the run, iraq war realize that its a strategic, sorry to it is, is basically disastrous for the regime. But it really didnt have a lot of options through games for teaching the depth and to be able to project our beyond as borders as a persian nation, surrounded by arabs and turks. And as a she a nation surrounded by sunny the one thing that allow that steve to project power and transcend all of these inherent limitations, was the palestinian cause, which was left on the ground by the arabs, but by ron has instrumental lives. And it doesnt necessarily mean that iranians are too concerned about the palestinians. Well being. And i think in fact, the one thing that is real could do that would undermine iran for within the region. Was to do exactly what osama was talking about to try to actually come to a Sustainable Settlement with the policy. And that will be a nightmare scenario. I remember steve, when the Trump Administration was putting the dean of the century on the table to to resolve those really patterson and crisis the sooner the official told me. After looking at the package. This is great for iran because there is nothing in it for the palestinians, meaning that the opposite would actually we can iran position in the region. And i also want to Say Something about the us as role, at least on the strategic level. Its very interesting that in the past few weeks, sense is really attack on iran and concert of in damascus. The us, in fact, has tried to prevent the expansion of this complex. It has been now we know in direct and indirect contact with the ryans, there was literally a hotline established through oman, so that iran under us could coordinate when iran was going to strike israel to try to limit the casualties and the damage. So that it doesnt spiral out of control and clearly what is or it has done in response, if its a one off, is all also limited, which i dont think would have been achieved without us pressure. So although i agree with a lot of auto salma said, but i think the binding ministration deserves a bit of credit for trying to maintain, can contain these tension or somebody want to respond to that. Yeah, sure, of course, i mean, i mean the bodily ministration deserves credit for allowing the genocide to continue for now. As you said at the outset of your show for 7 months. So im not sure what kind of credit one gives the button in this direction. Clearly the United States does not want a regional war and the sense of expanding their, their fund with having the palestinians be slaughtered before our eyes. The west just be towards yesterday or the day before. The Security Council resolution sort of advancing Palestinian Statehood as nominal, and thats the radical and its conceptual as that is in theory, the was claims to be for a 2 state solution. Yet us policy is characterized by essentially on the one hand and that extraordinary degree of anti palestinian racism. And on the other hand, a ludicrousness in terms of its contempt for its own statements to state solution peace in the middle east ability and everything. The west seems to do is to pretend that somehow you can build the stable middle east without resolving the palestinian question. And then to at least point to about the business of even using the palestinian cause as a tool. I think the word he uses tool. Now, i dont doubt that the iran, like the irish states previously, instrumental lies all states instrumental as all sorts of issues. So i dont doubt that whatsoever. On the other hand, i think the more salient question that one should answer is why is the tool there to begin with . Why is there a palestinian cause to begin with . Whats the history, why other palestinians left it in, in the extraordinarily unacceptable situation that they are . Why does it run . And before iran, iraq, and before iraq, egypt and before, you know, all these other states, syria, all these states have used the power, the new question precisely because there is something extraordinarily immoral and on ethical that everybody in the region. And i, i would argue today, everybody in the world honestly can see is unacceptable and want to end. And so, of course, states use every piece of leverage. They can every tool so to speak, they use, but they use it because these tools exist and we should focus, rather than on trying to is to say that theyre just using the tools, understand why the tool is there and why people, why, why it creates such and such a sense of injustice in the middle east among arabs for sure. But also i suspect amount your rent, many iranians as well. Im almost certain of that. Or summit. Take me for one further step, you know, in the abraham accords, it was an effort. We saw in our, in the lab essentially of trying to find normalization strategies in the region without resolving the palestine conflict. Has that palestine conflict now resonated with the so called error st. So much and created distance within those governments. Those monarchies and those government arrangements within each of these arrows states. You know, im thinking of jordan, which has a, a normalization peace treaty with, with a israel. And youre seeing on the street major protest demanding that the government suspend its relationship with israel. What is the distance now . The dynamic within each of these governments that this guy is a crisis, has caused, is causing the abraham record, is an insult to, to, to the common revere tradition of all the spiritual of all the ecumenical and the history of co existence. In our part of the world, its really a relationship between an expansionist as well that doesnt pretend nothing. It was very clear. They dont want to give the palestinians freedom or the state. And arab states that are based on despotism. Based on the fact that there is a huge gap between our populations as much as towards the palestinians. Its also domestically, theres no democracy, theres no freedom and most of the arab world, if i can go across the interim world. And its that absolute ism and despotism, that is the us requirement for a so called Peace Process that is based on marginalizing that allison and so i agree with all the us was genuinely concerned with the ability weve actually making the middle east a prosperous place where they would certainly have pushed for a Peace Process that actually solves once and for all right. The palestinian question nally. I want to ask about President Biden and americas brand and American Power is perceived in the region. You know, im, i had this frame that america is perceived as an all powerful player, very powerful player in this, but seemingly impotent when it comes to really influencing the course of israel. How does the ron, you watch it one more than anyone else . I know how does the ron look at American Leadership at this moment . Does it look at it, added is as if its floundering, does it look at it as if its being directed . Is this, is this hugging of israel during this crisis after october 7th enhancing americans brand in the region and making us look more submit for middle, or is around looking at us as tied down into something we cant manage to. Iran certainly looks at the United States at this moment as a great power that is bogged down and so many crises around the world that is basically getting the wrong closer to the strategic objective, that the stomach or public has always had which has to eventually evict the us from that part of the world, they see the reluctance of the us to use its own military muscle. They see the inability of the United States to deal with much lesser power, like israel and allied, that is completely dependent on the United States to influence as decisions, whether its pick up to address speaking monetary in situations that will mama. Oh, that was something that was right to me talking about, or whether its the uh, you know, trying to reign in israel from doing things that would then endanger us troops in the region. The attack on iran and console that absolutely could have endangered or further escalation could endanger us forces in the region. But you see also on the other hand, the reality that at the end of the day, iran is a much less or ministry. Power is under the most stifling sanctions that the us has ever imposed. So its that were threatening more sanctions now. Absolutely bad and do those sanctions bother iran and the wrong leadership . Do they convey uh, basically a sense that, that it runs options are truly being curtailed by the United States in this, or is this something that they can slough off . Look, without any doubt, the sanctions have a devastating impact on the run in economy and theres no doubt about it. But the regime has survived. Its not thriving, but uh, you know, with additional sanctions basically we think get the dial of sanctions, but it is currently 8 out of 10 navy to 9 out of 10. But that one extra date degree is not going to be a game changer. And if you look across the board as a result of the sanction iran is more aggressive in the region. More repressive at home, as Nuclear Program is closer than ever to the verge of a weaponized nation. Which by the way, what has happened over the course of the past few months, i think is pushing down further and further in that direction. Because the regional and the parents clearly has not the 3rd israel. Their conventional military capabilities cannot defend their own territory in front of much powerful adversaries like the us or the United States. But if you look at the impact of sanctions, they have not achieved their objectives. And that extra degree is not going to be a game changer assignment. We just solve this kabuki act in the United NationsSecurity Council where the us vetoed an effort to give call for full Palestinian Statehood. But at the same time, every Senior Us National Security and diplomatic official and the president United States say, the only way out of this is the 2 state solution. Are you convinced that all that President Biden really believes in the 2 state solution just shows you the kind of levels of, of, of us policy in the middle east that seem to be at one level. And this is what we should be talking about. It seems to be far less about a kind of objective reading of the us in the middle east. And what is interests are in the middle east and much more about a whole range of, of, of domestic pressures and considerations that are put on us administrations time. And time again, as well as audiology, as well as all sorts of other reasons why the us does what it does in the middle east because of us could have been theory long time ago. Put pressure to resolve this, this the palestine question. But the us has chosen not to and then at the same time, it claims to 1. 00 to 2. 00 state solution precisely because they understand that whats happening on the ground right now is an effect, a one state solution, a one state where a some people have rights and the most people have either limited rights or no rights. The alley im gonna give you the last word. The United States during the Trump Administration, did violate the agreement of the jcp away by withdrawing from that and moving forward. And im interested as, as someone who worked so vigorously on trying to get a 3rd option as opposed to a p using iran or a war with iran trying to create a 3rd 3rd way here. Do you think that were now back on a collision course with the ron as president obama feared we might be if we didnt get Something Like the j. C. P. O. In place . Are we back in a Railroad Collision course . From your perspective. We are opposite as they were really getting close to an Inflection Point that i think if in the next administration, regardless of who the next president is. If we can find a diplomatic solution to this crisis. I think the 2 options that president obama warned about a 10 years ago of whether its a deal or a conflict with once again come to the 4 and we would be faced with that unpalatable choice choice on both sides with one difference. Steve, that now as a result of president from unwise decision to re neck, the 2015 agreement, iran has significantly more leverage then it had in 2015. And it will be so much more difficult to put the program back in a box. And under the most rigorous monitoring that has a, has ever been established. And, and in other words, present, trump took rosin for program out of that box and put it in the microwave. And basically there is no going back. So we will, we can never get a deal that was as good as the 2015 deal and digesting that i think for washingtons political environment is going to be extremely difficult to agree to the wrong having a much larger capacity and also offering sanctions relief to an Iranian Regime that is on the wrong side of the war and ukraine or whats happening and in, in the middle east is going to be politically even cost. Therefore, the next step is, well, look, i want to thank you both. You sounded like the c u. C. Berkeley, professor of history and ally as iran project director at the International Crisis group. Thank you both so much for being with us today. So whats the bottom line . Tit for tat escalation may not happen right away. Like in the movies, but everything in the middle east is just getting much more complicated and dangerous for us president joe biden. It seems to me hes just gotten used to being ignored after pleading with his real, to not respond to in rons attacks. It did, but as long as he so deeply entwined with his real, it will be on his side no matter what joe biden matters less. Meanwhile israels anxieties will get worse, killing almost 15000. 00 palestinian children and gaza plus 10000. 00 women and 10000. 00 men has not made it feel more safe and secure. And being bombarded by has the law on a daily basis definitely doesnt help. And the more trigger, happy israel gets, the more queasy iran gets driving forward is Nuclear Program, which in turn triggers an arms race in the region with saudi arabia in the market for nuclear capabilities. These days. In the meantime, gaza boyles in despair and injustice in what looks like a conflict without at so its hard to see much Getting Better for a long, a very long time. And thats the bottom line. The. The latest news, as it breaks, the doctors will say to witness the feelings, knew exactly where to with detailed coverage. Everyone is telling us they do not recognize their houses. They do not recognize their areas from the hall to the story. These attacks are taking place also was had a city in part on the road, making it very dangerous for them to commute from one place to another. 300 years ago. The found is the full season, the celebrated, the Natural World in stages of the year. Now his music has been re composed by alteration intelligence using projected 2050 weather data to reflect the Global Climate emergency culminating, and it is still being like performance in south korea, this nokia or of silver on al jazeera. These are the mythologies or dramas. They used to march 3 d o t before dawn box with an increase is rated military precedence. Its too dangerous. As daylight arrives at austin begins instead of traditional decorations, the st. Cloud coats images of young palestinians killed by his ready forces. Its not just a lot of decorations, usually during ramadan, thousands of policies and tourists will or is the city often defies the seasonal suites used to be lost on the street right now look, its easy to move around. I think there could be different and exploring, going to change the situation and not listen. We have 70 percent more Business People here say the higher the month is even more significant this year. A foster emphasize with those hungry and suffering in casa ok. Foundation is deliberate, over 300000000. 00. Will suffice. Emboldened 75. 00 countries around the world, 100 percent of sec, thoughts and emotions to donation spends on projects. And we ensure beneficiaries come 1st of a 300 on luis, havent had gone through the rough, the crossing in recent months. Our most of these bless and be blessed and we all turning your donations into direct delivery in the shortest possible time donates with confidence. The, the as well shows most sign of and then the devastation of garza 7. Most people are killed and strong on rough on in the south and fed off a lot in the central bottom. And this is alex is here on line from dall housy. Its coming up protests by 2 universities across the u. S. Against the wall and gaza as an solid allergies and students interested at columbia university. The us kind of gives us