Hello again on change space on the bottom bottom for mold in 2 weeks. The gaza strip is bracing for an old out is really ground defensive. These right . The military leadership has declared his operation will be like no all the promising victory of a mass, but others fear the lives of those cap should by the Palestinian Group are in jeopardy. The u. S. As reported to the 1st israel to the last attack in the hope of securing the release of captives held by home, us will go to our guest on our panel in a moment. But 1st, this report by own a close, im sure to as well as leaders say they will watch how most of the face of the, of these a, some of the forces they intend to use for this, which i, people take one month, 2 months, 3 months of energy and theyll be normal. How much, especially before, how much of the context of tanks and our inventory. They will know as a shells from our apples to, to hundreds of thousands of used by lever service have been called up to join a plan. Ground defensive on casa, and the us is expanding its ministry presence in the middle east in support of this was the only conductive ground defenses in golf. So again, symbols in 20142019 back, then it same goes to punish and diminished that. Im true, but now the army wants to go further. Im not able to turn this equation a 180 degrees. The day of the attack will be remembered as the day that started the final incompletes destruction of the almost terrorist organization. Wally is rarely ami steps up. Its preparations and bombardment of garza faces challenges at home. The families of 222. 00 captors being held by him of sensitive tax. Southern is one nearly 3 weeks ago. Im calling for the release. Wow, you said we are in your email. Im heading back now to american hostages. Have been fried under mediation by cup of the army says its conducting rates to find out where are the captives are being held inside garza, the model of these area rates are inside garza, im gonna close Contact Research locations and seek information of the missing and hostage it was a head of the Ground Invasion more than the median palestinians have been forwarded to move south from the north of the golf house trip. These really ami is born in those who dont will be constant touch the simpletons, the, the humanitarian crisis is unfolding in gaza. Many a consent, a major battle between as well. So me and some us forces control and countries in the region and even global powers. And the consumption of these feelings that story the well that spring, you know, a panel of guests to discuss all of this in london, youll see medical bug associate fellow in the middle east and north Africa Program at Chatham House in birmingham, scott lucas, professor, the tents and institute at university college, dublin is also a founder and editor of a will view and use analysis sides. And also in london is rocks on from on for money on, profess of martin, at least politics at the university of cambridge hello to you all. Thank you. Very much for joining us. So lets talk about the possibility that israel is under pressure to delay its ground defensive. Starting with you. Youll see im from what we see in a problem with discussing all of this military plans a secret, but from what we hear in the reports, we hear israel has already delayed this several times. The good in the way is, is we from this c, or was it might be actually a good use that those are the day in the ready to action because you know exactly what the consequences on, you know, the consequences of such. Ready goals will send students, its bound to cost many, many lice. And i think that all they send it, lisa, so theres a, theres a device on there. Does that sound . The . So theres a vase and to mobilize right now, those 300000. 00 mobilized. Its means they need to be great, they need to be a quick, they need to be like it was, were for the to do the nation, sir. And be so excited especially that also the tensions involved intentions seem to know then go to the those International Community that the rest of these mounting because we see the level of casualties on the, on their, on their probably stimulus i manual for, for civilians. How is going to affect the vision i was going to fix the simulation and its not so good. So we think for at least the 222. 00 hostages only to us to just have been really said that stop and be as long as words. Thats if when they get on defensive stops the source that just might be using the human sheets. Anyway, coaching the will, and theres the results of face. We dont know whats going to be the face of a lot of places and actually also to think what is that for me to kind of name or section of it. If at the beginning that these are the government talks about the national altogether from us, this is actually as ive done already. So we filed, shooting thousands and thousands of innocent civilians, all different bids to be much more limited. The lots of rocks um, um we when we sold a present buying go for a very brief visit just to israel last week. Yes. Everyone focused on how supportive he was of these ready people in these, right . The government. But he did say in that speech, do not rush to war and avoid the mistakes that the us made in 911. 0 yes, i think it was clear that he was off. Certainly in the behind the scenes as well. One would imagine presenting an alternative view that although he was supporting israels right to protect itself, he was clearly putting brakes on exactly how israel would go about that. Saying that there would be implications as it approached it in the wrong way. And i think were seeing the response across the many capitals in the world, including the error world, that there is an alternative perspective on best that it is against International Law. Of course a to forcibly moved people and to attack a whole community as a, as going on and gaza. And so i think there is definitely a degree of caution that the is really sort of having to build into their plans simply to avoid being further isolated as the end of this. And i think the initial program that they set out was very much simply looking at retaliation. And now theyre having to look at the end game scots. We hear from reports that is actually the main conduit. Persuading israel to slow down is the daily meeting between the us defense secretary lloyd austin, and his Office Number these ready, defense minister. You, i have go on to seems to be the most whole cation of those in the military leadership and the reports. The 2nd, the reasons and youll see is already mentioned. Some of these are those that are being held by how mass they need to get more 8 into gaza to protect us interest and the regions of those sound. Like the reasons why the us would be or urging caution. At the moment to you. I think the wine, which has been late to the media on by american it has rarely officials that its primarily because of those 222 hostages, about 50 of whom are for nationals. I think thats actually just simply a convenient pretext for what has been that, why not just of the us but of much of the International Community. Very since, very soon after from office mass murder of israel, they shall go into 4 nations. And that is, theres a 2 phone message here, and i think its important emphasizes the 1st part of the message, not just from us, but from european leaders from leaders or other parts, including asia and also latin america has been a lot of boss crossed a line of acceptability, when it carried out those mass murders, it can no longer be treated as, as legitimate leadership and also to provide stability and security. But at least the 2nd part of the message which has been the one which has been given repeatedly and not just by jo body mass, a blanket which is as roxanne was pointing out. How do you get rid of how much, how do you achieve this . And you know, if were moving this leadership thats create, committed crimes against humanity, without alienating and date, of course, turn not mass showing a bureau of draws or civilians. So i do think that the emphasis was for israel, of to not carry out a ground offensive. And i think its real, it was on the verge that probably the sense of last week. I think its also for israel to limit the bombing. Were just showing no signs of doing so far. So theres less of a success here. But that brings us to that point you raised, which i think is now that she gets it. Were both symbolic and political point and that is getting humanitarian aid in to gaza. The argument of much of the International Community is you have got to get some space between garza civilians and how much youve got to get civilians away from. The idea that her boss is their only protector. You have got to give them an alternative. And for that, you need not just a couple 1000 and a few 1000 a trucks going in. You need hundreds and thousands of trucks to be going in and going and very soon i. So youll see, ill come back to the aid in a moment, but only issue of those being held by him us. We have 2 americans that were released, but actually its interesting if you look carefully, the estimated numbers being held have actually gone up. There originally were about a 150 then the estimate, few days ago was was 200. I believe its now more than 212 now that of course, great the limits, doesnt it . The any possibility of a, of a rescue operation given that these people a property all held in different places under heavy god. And some of them probably in a maze of underground tunnels. Here were talking down to a 120 to some of these. Its a total is our Family Member as that so. Ready hostage and yeah, this complicates everything so so explain soft of this and get those uh notes on the soldiers that were not talking here about the business. The phone with the computers being kidnapped at civilians from very, very young age babies, children all the way to 8485 you lot and its almost impossible to as a conservative organization to. Ready sort of, its not, its not realistic for the buy, not only the sales, and theyre obviously considering the way how much the, the spouse and the cost is committed to expect a lot to use it to human shape would be on the risk of things. So the best way forward is actually sol, quite negotiation behind the scenes as the, the colors all of the show that they are capable of looking some visual at least negotiate and the release of to, and we need to see what happens next. But yeah, this is this, this from the beginning complicates, i mean, yeah. Or for, for military organization because its, its for them on the other. Immediately scott to, as we said were released Judith Natalie rondon, an american, his writing mother and daughter from illinois. The fact that homos released them when they did how, how, how does that complicate things . Do you think for these, right, the government and, and the push towards the ground defensive, and im actually adding to that. Why do you think i know is pure speculation because we dont know the reasons they did decide to choose to help the americans when there are so many elderly young and then from people among those being held. I think the indications are, as this was a Public Relations move. Uh, it was a Public Relations move, 1st of all to try to deter and his riley ground evasion by holding out the idea that the hostages were there. And if you carry out these piecemeal releases, you keep on pushing the invasion back and other words that he also just pointed out, you know, these hostages are human shields. Lets call it for what it is. Secondly, why was it the americans . Because of the americans are personally by many to being the key factor in terms of their influence upon these really leadership. That although there are many other shes been going in to israel in the past 12 days, the germans have been going out with a lot shots, and i dont. I dont like a barrel book. The british have gone. Yeah. Degrees are Prime Ministers there today is still the idea that washington is the biggest lever on israel. So you play to American Public opinion, the American Public opinion, which is felt a great deal of anger over the mass killing of not only is rarely shall go. But at least 31 americans, you play to americans and say, look, you know, really good gods you were willing to release hostages. And by the way, if you had tacos, itd be a shame that those hostages wind up getting killed rocks on. How much also am a spokesman said . So they have the intention of releasing 2 more people whom they named to is really citizens apartments and nothing. Yeah. Whose office said this was mendacious propaganda. But this cool is, is big problems. Does it not . With a news rallies, rouse need to ship as well. Well, i think what were seeing is that how much is playing its cards very carefully. And i, i, you know, agreed that 1st to americans, ventu is rarely is, this is all got an agenda to live, to appeal, to not only public opinion, but also to show that there is total control over these hostages at the moment. And i think the americans were hoping that there would be quite a few palestinian americans that would be let out across the rough on the border, which is where the a trucks are coming in. And that there might be a somewhat of an exchange there. And that has not happened. So it shows that the release of the hostages still is very much up to how much it feels as its showing its not complete control over the situation. And i think is also showing that the israeli army does not because their intelligence has shifted consistently as to how many of the, how many hostages they are there are, we dont know if they have any idea where the hostages are, and i think thats possibly very much affecting their decision to go in because an urban guerrilla man to man and fight in, in gaza could really be very risky to the lot the lives of hostages that are there. And i think there has been quite a bit of talk about negotiations. Would certainly be a better way, would be a better guarantee to keep the hostages alive, rather than a ground operation. And that, that certainly would put their lives much greater risk. So i think its an interesting chess game that were seeing here. Youll see in terms of those 2 that were released, the american is ready, mother and daughter. We havent seen them since theyve been released. I would assume and tell me if you think im right, that they are being checked over by doctors, by psychologist. Now the important part for these readings and the americans, that being de brief for intelligence, theyll probably like about total say, hey, we have to remember that. So to civilians that went to a total of the ass for, for, for more than 2 weeks. And yes, so for me to ensure that when being comes says, i guess if i have those, you know, whether the americans all these or would like to go as much as possible out of there. But again i, i dont use they, they know too much that okay, well enough to, to have the Intelligence Community down. So the other. Ready which is, you know, the time that the last 2 weeks with this for, we had say from us and just let me just pull those to us in different places because the weight isnt, is a little time. So theyll, yeah, theyll waiting right now. So these are the phone says to enter and then fights the door to door in the elven areas. The time is the substance and the rest. So whether there is information that 2 hostages, the release can have a bank that is community. Im not so sure about it. A score in addition to us citizens, theyre all citizens of the u. K. From germany, netherlands, pylon, argentina, germany from i said, jeremy twice, sorry, should i, spain and portugal on the list. Now these include some of the us and the as rails closest allies. How much pressure do you think is coming on the is rileys from these governments . Those governments will again be part of again, what is a collective effort, not just simply a us effort, not just to emphasize that the lives of these hostages are at risk if theres any type of ground operation. But i think to put across the water message, which is like, even if, even if it is right on the ground offensive, is put off for a week, 2 weeks, another month, quite likely, that is roby trying out the or operations and the sustain bombing. And i think the message there is, again to this really leadership for the you know, can you really think that you can ball him off out of existence or even contain it . Can you do you think the bombing of flattening calls and killing thousands of palestinians is going to make any advance on releasing the hostages . I mean, ill just send it to you like this. Checks that is that in a sense, a boss knew when they attacked israel, that they would invite is really retaliation. Their plan was always going to be to use not only the hostages, because the civilians as hostages a wider set of hostages. Because of that is really a talk. And so now those are, those are being held hostage effectively by him off by this really leadership. And these really to me, of the International Communities trying to find a way to break stuff, trying to find a way to break the cycle of violence and try to ship the priority to aid. Rather than talking about a ground offensive or continued aerial operations. Including, you know, the proposal which do us might finally signed onto and the Security Council to make a pause in the conflict and you mandatory in operations. The number one objective to rocks on when we saw the 2 americans released, it was just hours later that we saw the very 1st and they werent very many. They were only 20 initially. Trucks of humanitarian aid cross into garza to think that was a coincidence. So part of the deal, well, would imagine it was probably part of the deal. So the low level of a trucks that have been allowed. And since i think our hedge it, you know, hinges on the, on the, the, a negotiations to release this next to set of hostages on this, weve got to remember, is massively lower than the amount of a that was coming in even prior to the whole up can fly ration that began on october 7th. There were hundreds of of a trucks that normally would come into casa, and so it is really suffering without these. So both sides are, are holding those ropes in the negotiation. And so i think they are linked and i think that there is also some degree of i, i would agree with ya see, i dont think theres a great deal of information that the hostages are going to be able to to provide um, simply because i would also imagine that those hostages that are being released are probably ones that are quite close to the point place where theyre being exchanged. So i think theyre being kept probably specifically out of any kind of a Massive Movement or, or, or, or loop of how much activities. Youll see a great deal of pressure on israel to let in more aid. But one specific item which is not being allowed in until now, which is fuel and of course, fuel is needed for all sorts of things for water, sanitation, water, pumping, dissemination, unreal, which is the un agency that deals with the policy and says its going to exhaust is fuel reserves in the next 2. 00 to 3. 00 days . Hospitals rely on generates has one very disturbing report from unicef, suggests, or about a 120. 00 babies in incubators who would die if, if, if there was not fuel to pilot those things. You betas, do you think is route, will that fuel in or not . Because its described as a fuel use item as it was a little bit is though many, many other commodities. So well be fine. Just doing a user inspect the talking about the lifeless, maybe surveillance of 2200000 People Living in. It was a highly for collective the place and society to so it and down the line for. Ready the water and electricity for knowledge extends on the side and entering is we just, they started out 20. 00, will make a huge difference in the hundreds of their every day when you move internet and it will. So he is actually just on the edge of, of, of collapse not being able to supply the basic services there because of cost. So a inmate, when you had such a, such a guy since the middle will slow that is needed. And lo, 8 any spaces. So the and the sides of you can see the best place is, is the injuries and software population including best pretty much your best. Or for many, i think what hes doing is that i to, to fight against, from us and against elizabeth. It doesnt cause that light is the same time to despise if the clause, in a sense civilians from, from the very basic lies eventually. And we already see mold in sol, 1000 a. But a scene is a cheer. So this must be a way in which, and it doesnt have, it doesnt mean thats also some of the collection might be delayed, but missed find the way to reach doug, you may need that in probably the all those way. So, i mean, and also the fedex, the city is, is provided and 0 is provided in a to hoss because its a score and ive had another basis. Yes. You know, how much is not going to, to fighting according to the geneva convention, but is it more because he is further than by the and suggested democracy should conduct there wont be some now the other question i want to ask you is where into about National Diplomacy is going cause youll be aware that at the end of last week, the Us Ambassador in the United Nations put a hand up and vetoed a resolution that would allow humanitarian pauses to be put into effect, to try and deliver it as a. The us seemed to be changing that position. They put forward another draft resolution, which i was told. And something i saw from the u. A which is also on the Security Council that they put a submission saying that 2nd, that the, that draw from us was severely on balance. Will this, ive obtained is the new us draft resolution. And for the 1st time they mention exploring additional practical steps such as humanitarian pauses and the establishment of humanitarian car doors, rocks on israel is not gonna like that. Is it as well its, its interesting because i think the, the accompanying story to this is the bite and had been working on yahoo for some time to convince him that the, the, you know, larger picture has to be the right to for israel to defend itself. But the, but the secondary picture has to be that it be according to International Law and to conform to protecting civilians and, and the gods and people, palestinians. And so i think im not totally surprised that its taken this of this 1st step where the us was extremely tough and rough and saying that the, you know, that there was going to be absolutely no cease fires. And that it was the towing. These un resolutions, but now as it has, has obviously convinced is relevant that, that a different step is important to take. I think the situation we have to recognize was very fluid. And the longer the time goes and the longer that this incubate, its clear that humanitarians to support is absolutely critical to this and is critical to the image the israel will have coming out of the story. And if it is not able to allow this kind of a humanitarian help, it will be increasingly isolated as it comes out of this with none of the work that has done trying to, to show up any kind of relationships with its neighbors that will allow you to us, let me just tell you that briefly when coming to the end of the program, i just went off each of you very quick to what on sir . Yes or no. Um. Is that going to be a Ground Invasion . Is the pressure on israel going to work . Youll see to some extent, i expect one today. Thanks, scott. A israel will divide this into 2 parts. Theyll be a Ground Invasion to establish more of a buffer zone in the gaza strip. Whereas in the Southern Gaza strip, the emphasis will be that civilians can go there and some humanitarian who can give them some support roxan quickly. Yes or no. I think there will be, i dont think i can back out at this point. Have to end that rock so im starting to to old i guess youll see macro bug, scott lucas, and rocks on the farm on for my on. If you missed any part about discussion, you can always watch it again. Any time on out, is there a dont call me if you have your own views about anything that was said post a comment on all facebook page. Thats facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story on x, the one that used to be cool. Twitter where at a inside story, comprehensive coverage of the god. So well continues on that which is around the clock and ill be back in this chat very soon. Im on the team. Stay safe, bye for now. They say rules have years in palestine. They also have pies and archie such it is used by the width of t o. Vitamin reveals the role of architecture in his reading the occupation. Everything in this panorama is a technical tool within the architecture for the patient. Just need to know how to decode the architecture of silence part of the rebel architecture series on how to adjust the settings agent boats as people and produces not through the 1st time in the process of european political debate. Whats not up for arguments is tiny island comp codes. The most nights here are scripts in the open days seeking what are the help. There is 3 with this one its and ive seen some people will go dizzy. I wont get anything a slap. It is a is less than a 150 kilometers with introducing coast. And its become the main sea route from north africa into europe. The federal freelance producer shops, the islands deputy, theyre saying the residents a tired and want to return to a life based on tourism. And fishing are still of on demand will be here on sunday along with georgia maloney. But its far from clear exactly how much of what she wants. It least Prime Minister will get one demand or most certainly went out of reach the idea of an e. U. Naval blockade that will prevent migrant boats from reaching these shows the israels will interest attacks on the guns and strip continues. Scores of palestinians are killed in ongoing air strikes and densely Populated Areas the to know about this, and this is all to 0 life and dont have also coming off the largest hospital in northern garza loses power. My stuff are overwhelmed by the number of debt and injured down doing of homicides. Its released to elderly is really kept as for humanitarian reasons, following mediation, cottle and each tens of thousands of is ready to be evacuated along the guys on folder putting pressure on tons