Putin is believed to have put a former wagner commander in charge of a force. There been a lot of questions about the groups future after its leader, if getting a precaution, but have failed uprising against the kremlin. Now, it seems as if wagner will continue to operate, but with a greater oversight from moscow will go to our panel in a few moments. But 1st friend of mine has this report. And the wagner group seems to be under new management. Russian president Vladimir Putin appear on television with wealth of mercenary groups, top commanders, he tasked andre atrocious, with organizing what he called volunteer fighters on the front lines and ukraine. Languages. Youll start to deal with the formation of volunteer units that could perform various combat tasks, primarily in the zone of the special military operation. Food is under pressure to strengthen rushes offensive, and ukraine in any way you can. The conflict is ground to a stalemate with either side, making significant gains in month. Wagner mercenaries had previously played a vital role in the war, but the groups future has been on certain following the death of its leader. Again, you pre goshen, the billing their business man was once a close l i a put in button june. He wasnt unsuccessful. Mutiny against the kremlin accusing military leaders of incompetence for gods and was killed in a plane crash. In august, western Intelligence Agency say a bomb was on board. Moscow denies this and any involvement in his death. In addition to ukraine, wagner fighters have an active in syria and several african countries assisting governments encounter a certain c operations. The kremlin is always referred. The mercenaries, as a private force at night, direct responsibility for their actions. But this may be changing the boot and is now publicly issuing orders to the man who appears to be provoked in successor brushes. Deputy defense minister was also present at the meeting science of the kremlin may plan to exert more control over any new incarnation of the wagner group. Venton monahan for inside story the. All right, lets go ahead and bring in our guests. Joining me from moscow as possible, so ill get an hour, an independent Russian Defense analyst and london is Michael Clark, visiting professor at the department of worst studies at Kings College london. And in washington, d. See, is john ledner, an independent researcher with a special focus on conflict in africa and the author of a forthcoming book on the wagner group. A warm welcome to you all, and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story problem. Let me start with you today. What message is president put in sending to the world by appearing on television with andre throw ship. Is this from your Vantage Point . A clear sign that the kremlin will be exerting more control over the group . Well, the kremlin, present, the bush in aspire to control the group or not the group of last rest of it because big were really need the price. Theres a problem there. Is there need it in the primarily on the front rod, but also most of the day are operations in the middle east and thats really good too. So yes. So thats what basically pushing was going from the been kind of find the price of the partner price. So sent me a match or the retreat it from us. So there was a meeting in the crowd and one between push in the box, another group leadership. And then she was also pressing the same thing as why she did was bad. But here we just ship. It was bad, bad. A bad thing. But youre good guys. You should find is go and find for mother to rush. So yes, thats what they want. They want to know. But without this leadership, now there is no way to ship this. After this all worked out in this way and crash last month. And so encourage the bottom there 5 years under the default variations in africa in the middle of me. Impossible of how easy or difficult will it be to fold the wagner group into the Russian Military. Um, a lot of wagner fighters had had left the russian army in the past. And it doesnt seem that they would be too enthusiastic about the idea of being under the auspices of the Defense Ministry of what they actually want to fight alongside. Russian forces Going Forward. Oh, some the signed contracts, but they are hi, rocky, theyre kind of the, uh, a contract Buckner Group and thats a kind of loose organization. I mean thats by the, uh, its been expired. These are where they have a big book. Former veterans which day as they know are good specialists. They can call them up when theres a money to be paid, then the mission to be accomplished. And this be done to her about the 1000 over to 1000. And these are the command structure a bow, and they are so direct, but a lot of them are former military person now not to rank just or no. They were treat specifically because it didnt 5 child the job was, were running the Russian Military. So theyre kind of on this events and up to now, theyre vast majority has been refusing this on bump transfer defense spent this time just its like a substitute. If she dont want to direct the Defense Ministry is a garage or if you in the case or one of your own. And you can kind of deal with john, add to the board and meet me in june. Many thought that the wagner group would be folded into the Russian Ministry of defense based on present important remarks while im meeting with andre atrocious. Is that process now underway . Is that what you think that we are seeing . Yeah. Hey, i agree with possible. I think that we, we are seeing that, that process which is certainly taking some time. I think i the way its difficult right now to talk about exactly what that is going to look like. Because i guess, as probably had said before, wagner, we can think of it much more as a contracting organization, get it as far fewer permanent employees. And that has, as the whole mentioned, hes less of a contacts, a man with military experience so they can recruit for specific missions. And when the contract is over, say a 2 year contract, a one year contract. So those fighters can go on to another organization. They used to be in the past, but that it was difficult for them to go to another p. M. C. And then come back to wagner because the wagner was kind of a jealous organization and they could be blacklisted. But essentially they were free agents afterwards. And so i think but, but my role are thinking about control, what we have to look at is sort of the permanent staff and as far as the scene so far and have her come and in syria and the same faces have largely stuck around which, which implies that theyre continuing to work and they will likely fall under whatever this new structure will be. John, let me just check with you. When you say pmc, youre talking about private military companies, right . Thats correct. Yes. All right, im john. Let me also ask you about the fact that the president put in ordered andre troje, you have to take charge of volunteer units in ukraine. Im how long do you think that process might take . I mean, what kind of timeline are we looking at . And how much impact might that have on the ground in ukraine . Im not sure exactly. On the timeline that thats probably difficult to, to tell. And, and i think it will very much depend on individuals who want to go back to go back to the front. I am sure that there are a decent amount of, of wagner fighters who do believe, obviously in the, in the war and ukraine and do want to return. Theres also a number of fighters who probably havent experience thought my would prefer to be in a safer complex and in africa as well and avoid ukraine. But i think ultimately we have to remember that uh, at least since, since and since about may 10th when, when pre goes and declare victory inbox move in hand to the city of fox movies in Eastern Ukraine over to the administrative defense monitor has not been on the front, it has not been participating in the war, ukraine. And so all the developments that weve seen most recently, but ukraine, its kind of defensive. And the russians doing their relatively effective job of holding on it buried has come without the participation of wagner. So, well, i think that certainly wagner represents a high degree of military talent, especially with a number of their commanders. And im hesitant to say that their re, entrance into the conflict will be a make or break for the ukrainian or russian. Michael, how much pressure is president put in under his strength and rushes offensive and ukraine quite a lot. So the Russian Forces are stretched at the moment. The holding that positions, but only just because theyve got no operational reserve. So that having to take uh, forces from one area of the front to put them to another. So 5 regiments of the v dvd able, and from the 7th and 76 divisions of already being transferred to the on a key front, which is the main battlefront at the moment. And the hold of a 42nd mechanized infantry, a down there as well. Brigade doing a lot more fighting. So the russians having a mobile reserves, they all brought us. We showed the troops and president putin is hanging on for the winter. Hes hanging onto the bad weather, trying not to lose very much territory. And then when the weather turns bad in about 4 to 6 weeks, then he hopes he could pick can recalibrate his strategy. After that, michael um, let me also ask you about the fact that, you know, for a long time the narrative that seemed to be emerging from the kremlin was that russias government really had nothing to do with wagner. So is what were seeing now about face, and if so, does this surprise you to . No, not adults. I mean, we will use it to me is lying completely when he said he pretty tight enough to know anything about wagner excited that they had no cut, no relationship to the criminal, then hes then he made it clear. I mean, this was a group that used to go to the pregnant to receive metals, even when he knew nothing about that apparently. And then um, in the teeth of the crew after the 24th of, of june. He was so angry, he made it clear how much theyve paid wagner and all these contracts involved and it had. And now hes not really using, trying to pretend that there isnt formally parts of the whole machine. Thats not to say that the company has control of, of automatically it didnt have, but it was, it was an instrument that was created in 20132014 as he found useful to use. And hes use it, have a sense. So its not, no surprise whatsoever, that hes saying what he now says, i mean, you know, nobody believed him then and, and we, i mean, he may not be telling the truth, but theres no guarantee of that either part. But let me ask you a version of the question i just asked from michael um, for a long time the kremlin referred to the mercenaries as a private force. They had denied direct responsibility for wagner. His actions, this is just no longer the case, right . Oh yes, excellent, losing probable denial ability because russian officials and present the fortune personally when theres something going wrong, worse than say would be or somewhere else that i dont know these people, these people are and then they go where they wish. And now we can say that this bear under the officer, so be Russian Defense ministry and the person that really isnt involved in a micro managing the command structure. Wagner, the or for her wagner search very much about i mean, he can say that i dont tend to control them anymore. So yes, thats what, but thats excuse as being, besides a weight loss and possible. Um, earlier, john was talking about the fact that the wagner doesnt seem to be participating in any frontline battles at this stage in ukraine. I want to ask you about that. How much of a battle field role have wagner fighters had in ukraine . Since buff mode was recaptured by them . Have any wagner mercenaries redeployed to the front line in Eastern Ukraine and joined the Russian Military there . Well, they play the decisive role in the blood bass of buffalo done before the trip. They are very vicious back. A few of the factors well trained and apparently well not motivated and thats are the bloodbath. Uh, they were withdrawn for recuperation and then there was the big trip kind of complex being up regarding and then the top brass of the russian metal actually. So as a group, theyre not at the front, but i do a 1st, a number of individual 5 dentist who did actually signed contracts for the Defense Ministry after wagner was withdrawn as being a kindly reported to being on the front line. But there were talking about maybe here several 100. Not that much. John in the short term. Does this move benefit president putting . Does it ultimately put him in a stronger position . Hi it. I think it thought us in terms of the overall narrative which the kremlin is trying to put for that wagner is back under the control of the russian government. Its now under the control of the administrative defense. But i think we have to remember, you know, what, what do we mean by control in the 1st place . At the end of the day, the way the system has historically function that is that theres also very little guidance from the center from proving himself. And this scapes quite a lot of freedom and for a powerful individuals and all of the cartridge interest to go out and pursue a profit, making activities, framing it as foreign policy. And as long as they can kind of frame it within ross is national interest. And the greater narrative of russia is a great power. Theres really no contradiction in terms of demo, also making money out of the venture as well. And so i think what were seeing right now, it is an effort to, to recreate the narrative that, that wagner is under the control by putting a few people kind of in, in the top positions and, and in place. But that doesnt necessarily mean that on the ground in the Central African republic, on the ground in molly, this sort of centralized but the centralized structure. What, what could kind of continued to run, not necessarily with the m, o, d, you know, and everything thats going on. Michael, weve spoken a lot already in this episode about wagner as role in ukraine, but in addition to ukraine, wagner fighters have also been active in several african countries assisting governments with Counter Insurgency operations. Is this something thats going to continue . Yes, and theyll develop it. Thats good, great. So the, so the model for this, so wagner been involved in the libya. Supporting general hafta whos a part of the breakaway uh, alternative government in libya based and then ben gauze. Theyve been doing that for a long time to get into a Central African republic that now very much involved in molly, essentially the mother, the, to him all these terms. A western power is out through the french, out in protein wagner at new jazz. Hes doing the same, so in the west, our to throw in friend jobs, but that you havent yet. Thats involved the fight to is it seems that theyve been, some pressure is apparently on the border between some outside of fighters involved the fighters. Not sure how to restart is but what were talking have done is greg to this Business Model really way by theyll sign it with any dictator and theyll do the do it to you or whatever it is. Even if its genocide, thats fine. They dont really mind about that. Theyll do any amount of dirty work in return for a share of the national wells. And that usually means mining concessions or sharing the state, the gold mines, the gold mining in uh, somewhere like, uh, molly and all the golden new jack. Thatll be minerals. And in some cases, oil as well in the case of libya. And thats a Business Model which has been expanding. So the people who run breweries, they run insurance companies, travel companies. This is not just a military organization, it is actually a conglomerate, which confront shows itself. And its an arm of, of russian influence. Although the russian government hasnt taken that much advantage of it so far, i think the expectation is that it will in the future. John, i saw you reacting to some what michael was saying that looked like you wanted to jump in, go ahead. You know, i, i mean, i think, i think i think michael is right on the point that were going to continue to see the wagner operating africa. Because as he said, foreigner has created a product is created a market for, for its services. Um and even i think if i were to suddenly disappear from africa, we would likely see uh, you know, other countries with these kind of look private partnerships try to try to step in and fill the void. I think its important to know that the bar is coming about at a very interesting time. Now in africa, in general, where weve seen some very real in type, fresh sentiment, real kind of interest and advocacy for a further round of deep falling as ation which has come at the expense of, of francis relationships with many of its former colonies. But at the same time, asking governments also dont have an alternative Security Partner to western interventions or, or United Nations peacekeeping missions. If for whatever reason they, they choose that they, they dont want those to be there. And so wagner has benefited as well from the structure as this actually the only alternative Security Partner, no matter how group, okay, might be for african governments and wagner also, michael had mentioned that you know, that there are tools russian influence. I would go a bit further and say that, you know, in africa rushes, the russian governments historical presence, at least since the cold war has been relatively minimal. This gave provision a lot of leaves to essentially go out there and create what she thought processed interest in africa should be probably what about you . What do you say . Do you foresee that the wagner is footprint in africa is going to expand Going Forward . Im sorry to pour some cold water on black birch. I believe that the bar of wagner operation in africa is in deep trouble. If not, so do we do because a lot of there has being decapitate. There is no more power. And if they last, yes, there are top military command me to give them to put in crash, but their military structures more or less. In fact, appreciate that sir. So the fighters or the of the commanders are there, theyre a financial cannot like to have being really wiped out. Theres no precaution, theres no, i mean is there shouldnt because theres also guides and thats trash was the main logistics in the financial operator. So how thats going to work . I mean, there was way, i mean, they operate just by the organized Crime Syndicate are, uh, uh, where i can, i mean, uh, uh, uh, a mexican drug protocol. I need, every thing was, he didnt catch on time. Everyone knew every pfizer news if hell get his money or his family to get his compensation without any bureaucracy, without any papers, just the bags of trash and, and this guy, sure. There was a concessions on a gold and dime diamonds and so on. And that was transferred by pre borderline to dash and also the best from the gram i know, put together all work. And now, so the Defense Ministry, which is a man and the rest of the addresses. Uh uh, a criminal syndic. If the do not press the over 2000000 the employees, theres corruption there. Sure. And that means you find those that are the one that goes on speaker that theyre not getting their money in buying more info. Theyre getting into the Defense Ministry that goes all the way through by to wires, do russian better kinds of russian banks and in need so much complaints in ukraine, that the money is not coming in time. So i dont see how this the wagner economic moto job would be workable under the russian state bureaucracy. And i think its good to begin to. This is the grades and rather so john, if we can just take a step back for a moment, i want to ask you about how important africa is both economically and politically, to russia, and whether or not russia actually tries to expand the wagner footprint in africa will the kremlin face challenges in keeping a strong presence in africa . And so, i mean, i think last i was saying earlier, wagner has, has been able to create what rushes interest in africa werent because rushes interests in africa at the time are certainly not that great. Its not an important trade partner for, for russia. It doesnt factor significantly into rushes, the National Security interest of never mentioned in Russian Military doctrines or, or political aspirations. And so i think for since the invasion of the full scale invasion of ukraine last year, i think that the narrative, the geo political narrative of russia as a partner for africa has become more important, essentially, to show that russia is not g o politically isolated to show people at home show to show on the International Stage that there are so many countries and want to do business with russia. I disagree. Uh well, i guess my, i guess really a slightly with a pablo. I agree that the ministry of defense wont be able to take over and absorb all the wagner is economic operations, which is why im skeptical that the ministry of defense is necessarily going to try and take over. All of these operations are still on validly a charismatic figure. Who or whos ideas were, were always kind of keeping this organization together. But there are still a lot of operators at the level many below and will know how to work. And he, hes essentially created these companies that are going concerns. And i guess if we even take the, the analogy of, you know, a Mexican Cartel or, or, or Something Else along those lines, usually in the car codes as well. Then if the head is taken out, the cartel so more and then kind of continues to go on in a different form. And so i think we have to be specific as well that perhaps well, what were going to see in the future is not something that is exactly wagner as, as, as weve seen, as we see it today. But wagner has gone through multiple, multiple areas in its work history. And so the same issues of supply and demand, the fact that theres a lot of supply of russian mercenary, theres a demand. And theres still a lot of creative offering of entrepreneurial people within the organization. With within russia itself, i think points to the fact that a version of this will continue for quite some time. Michael, uh, we only have a couple of minutes left. Uh, but let me ask you, um, what president put in have considered disbanding the wagner group. I asked that because im curious, get your thoughts on if that would have been a very risky move for him. Just essentially having all those fighters on the loose and not within that group anymore. Yeah, i mean, he was always fights for the problem after the attempted cool, whatever it was in, in june. But its clear that the people were not going to go into the ordinary military that using for all sorts of reasons. They wouldnt, it was most likely they are the drifting to over at p. M. C, and have plenty of them arrived, is 15 or 20 of them in ukraine itself. Policies run by different russians that goes including shogun, with the defense minister, hes got his own content co runs, right . Delta, which is quite like wagner. So they were always going to drifting to other groups or keep them together in one i do keep them in by the routes where they train the veterans. You know me and use that as a base for. So there operations that i did was sort of faded little bit, but they were always there, always a dangerous solos. For pewter, they only have to be 5 or 10000. 00. But now that seems to be about 40000 of them about 800000 people cycle through wagner. So its a pretty, it is actually a consequential group. 9, its probably sleep of aim to try to keep it together with it, with a different role. Rather than just let it dissolve and become a problem else with. All right, well we have run out of time, so were going to have to leave the conversation there. Thanks so much to all of our guest follow filling our Michael Clark and john black now. And thank you to for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. Ill just ever dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. Thats facebook dot com, forward slash age and side story. 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