The hello and welcome to the program. Im fairly bad people. Its a meeting aimed at researching ties between takia and russia. Following his re election and made a turkish leader has taken steps criticized by moscow as hostile, like backing ukraines big financial membership. The main issue, however, is a revival of the grain deal voted by turkey and the un washer withdrew from in july. Besides that, can anyone use his coast relationship with fulton to move towards a possible settlement of the war in ukraine . Well get to, i guess, in just a moment. But for us, this report from benton mont, the turkish president recept type air to one, is seeking to re establish himself as a mediator between russia and the west. Over the war. And ukraine. Top of the agenda is meetings of president Vladimir Putin in the russian resort. Of sochi is the re establishment of a green card or across the black sea. Last year, turkey and mediation, an agreement between russia and ukraine, lowering green exports to pass safely through the boxy, that stabilized global grain prices, and was a relief to developing countries. But in july decline to renew the deal. Same problem is this. The rush of relief from western sanctions were being met. The u. N. Is cooling old parties to find a solution. We believe that the black Sea Initiative has given a very important contribution to make the foods markets more adequate to all of the objectives of food security, but lately, relations between air to on and putting had been strained. In july turkey, a returned a group of prisoners to ukraine, despite promising moscow it would hold them for the duration of the war. The kremlin called it a violation of trust in the meeting. And so cheese evidence that turkey retains some sway with russia. Question now is whether its enough to produce results. Bins, mullen for inside story. The well estimate dog guess for todays show in moscow is andre box and all of a former Russian Ambassador and deputy chairman of the association of Russian Diplomats in bangkok is michael bruce. I School GlobalAffairs Analyst and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and it is stumbles to the identity rop associate professor at a sick university. I wont welcome t o. Thank you very much for joining us now before we discuss what was achieved and not achieved in. So gee, i want to ask you 1st about the state of the relationship today between to key and russia and andry in moscow. Let me start with you. How would you describe this relationship today between present or the one and present fulton . Is it on solid ground . Well actually uh this uh, the relationship between the neighbors, the inside or i have a question. So we are are developing all relations. So in due way, what a successful, especially in the economic field, the calibration in uh the estimate cannot or g project in some uh original. So no problem. So because for the, for the importance of you and uh, well as far as the green. Uh, do you uh, there was another discussion. No, and i do most things that uh it was, uh, it breaks me or anything of this kind of froze because uh, the main problem dealing the uh, the grain deal is, uh they do the rest of the content as of the account. Theres no install fee about the rest of condos, but we are afraid the turkey and the personal president of broker cannot have the opportunity to affect the polish it was the rest of the companies. So it could be that the holes these uh, negotiations restore. Okay. And so kind to a few trial uh, you know, above the few times, attempts to influence and to make the deal going on, as you say, no major breakthrough on the grand deal, andre and sochi. I do want to ask, i want to ask you one more question about the relationship between present are the one and prizes important. Andre, and we saw russia criticize a turkey afore advance on ukraine for accepting and, and supporting ukraines bit to, to join nato. Do you think uh, russia of use turkey today as a trustworthy and reliable partner . No, nope, nope. Its quite probably comfortable for them to go after whats happened during the last months and the last 2 weeks. And after the decision of mister, theyre going to return back the cream. The goals are over as off the regimen to your plane of, to the so of course, so they can not plus, if i are less than so as a kind of girlfriend, literally, this is just their relations relation between being able to accomplish. Okay, let me ask for diane is simple about our thoughts on the relationships that i andre just said that the russians dont view this relationship between or the one and put in as a, its a friendly one certainly. But the russians dont necessarily trust or, or c, 14 is or, or the one rather as a reliable partner. Whats the view from to key . Its been a very difficult balancing act for present. The other one has in it. How solid the relationship is it as far as turkey is concerned, as well. Its the fact that the relationships between church and the rush are not as close as they have been before the elections in the summer. So since the elections in the summer degree selections and add ons victory, fee of seeing are the 1. 00 turning his face a bit more towards the west, which is in line with turkish traditional Foreign Policy from rich dawn had been de meetings on the past couple of years due to conflicts within us, particularly in syria and also again conflict with the us about the on put attempt into a chain 2016 and on had blamed us for, for taking part or implicitly supporting the cool um so since then 13 i had i dont, i would say, has been pursuing close relationships, but russia. So i would think that relations with russia should, can only be understood to do any follow relations between turkey and, and the usa of west, but particularly do a site. So there has been a gap between church in russia ever since the elections because of turkey is the 1st one with the west. And also because because of domestic pressure, i would say, yeah, so i dont have the following a strategy of a cold think some of the opposition or adding some of the opposition agenda to his own agenda. So it pro, question policy process and Foreign Policy or returned to orthodox economic policies. These were the oppositions agenda during the next in campaign. But now since the elections ive done has been adopting on some of these policies, which is so, so they have been changes. Yeah, theyve been changes and domestic factors of have perhaps into, in some of these changes. Let me ask michel for it for his thoughts about the state of the relationship between turkey and russian. Michael, this turkey is still play a leading role today. Sure. Well, im glad um are the guests from russia underscore the importance of neighborly relations, and i hope when he goes home, hell take a long, good look and the mirror and ask himself about how russia has been treating its neighbors. Ukraine cub slaughtering civilians and damaging infrastructure in terms of the relationship. If indeed, there is no agreement from these types, i think expectations are very low going into them. It is a loss for global thoughts. So it security because i think in that relationship was important because putting in order one i had a pretty good um uh kind of talking relationship, but i put it inside. Sorry mister to one is one of the few uh, leaders who as mr. Put it on uh speed, but speed dial. So it was big. And um, i think he really wanted to see some resolution to this deal. Now, one more thing, a couple of things about mr. One. Well, number one, he rarely goes into the highest tex negotiation without getting something automated. And number 2, i think this, he also went into this part domestic consumption. Um, when they went into the meeting, they also talked about Nuclear Energy rushes, supplying i think about 4 plus to turkey, tourism, and also trading in their own currencies. The turkish economy is not in very good shape. So we need to show something coming out of that as well. Okay, and ill ask about in just a minute about what a turkey has gotten out of this meeting, but i want it to come back to andre 1st and talk about the grain deal. We heard person 14 say that russia will only be ready to, rejoined his greendale once all the agreements off or failed. So talk to us about the conditions. Why and why russia pulled out of the, of the agreement in july and what it wants to see happened in order for it to rejoin it . Well, actually, were tired, right outside of the above. Because these people, per se, and life and a net killer, it a few go to so we should be, are in the vast and also the story about the russia. Uh, you know, uh, i need to be uh, do the deal by itself. It was uh, the only way all told us because for one year, one year, nothing happened. Dealing with the obligation over the rest of the company is uh to give the opportunity for the russian brain and for the russian. Uh for the deluxe. That was to go, so we fulfilled all a bit of issues and trust and confidence did not prove view of their obligations more than this is force f world as a rule. Because only 3 percent of the grain came to africa and more than 80 percent tend to europe. So this whole story was the approach rather start, you know, because of the pre fix for the, the agreement towards the assessor to, to uh, to full few of the, the, the grading the grading, the export to african and all the countries that i need. Oh, because of the congo. So the whole story i talked to before and uh, reassure because it was a great mistake. I think of all government that we waited for while im here before re terminated our participation. We should have done it much time before. Maybe after 2 or 3 months, so when a dispute that the whole story is not developing, being the right away. Okay. Let me ask, who am i going to respond to that . My case over might be go ahead and respond to that over 50 percent. Sorry, over 50 percent of the 33000000 metric tons of grain that left under the deal. According to you and figures, which is a party to the deal when to develop think countries just quickly i returned from the brick stomach just now and mister, put them put out the same way. Not christy is that only a small sliver of the grain went to poor countries. Thats not true. The fingers are there online. I think they still allow google to work on right. So go ahead and google the figures yourself, sir. Okay, andre briefly before i bring back to the 9 to the conversation, you, your response to that. And also i wanted to find out why, you know, even after russia pulled out of the deal, if it was genuine about it, why did it for upset also, attack ukrainian facilities, ukrainian grain storage facilities, facilities. We saw a tax on the port of a desa as well. Why . What, but actually uh we are ready to uh, remove that uh the rest on countryside, the gift uh the opportunity for all great and with less just to go or, or we will uh make direct agreements as we originally started with the term start as states. So the cable ready negotiation of this 6 applicant states and the in the weeks to, to, to come, we show supply that free of charge. But this was not the way over developing the 30th or relations. But the, but we could that kind of do not have any of the opportunity just to go, okay, lets say that your thoughts about what we just heard from both andrey and michael and also how you think to key and present, or the one can convince russia to return to this deal, the, the russians seem adamant that do you know that theyre angry, Cultural Bank has to return to the switch system. Does press present or the one has the leverage right now to convince the west to, to perhaps, to accept some of these proposals from russia. A well, 1st of all, i should also start with saying that, but before i said hard on his being trying to restore its his relationship for tricky relationships with the rest. But its important to note that just doesnt mean hes willing to give up a russia as a, as a trade partner with a strategic ally, so hard on and both cost. And theyre both in programmatic and flexible feeders. And they would, i would expect, especially for add on, i can say that he would try to keep relations positive it teaching. And the revival of the green core door is important for ad on one for on shipping foot prices down. Thats important because um now local elections are coming up in march. Mm hm. So thats one factor. But in addition to that, having that meeting role ad on has been branding himself as someone who can talk to both the west and russia. Cis mediating role has been important for, for him also domestically that his being quarantined can prestige. So he will try to convince western the actors to um, um, to allow the russian exports to reach Global Markets and the russian, every Cultural Bank to be connected to the switch system again. And perhaps actually are the ones now closer relations with the west. Could i pay off and, and come useful and actually benefiting russia . I, you know, i can sing them to michael. Interesting. The present person go on. And so today said that moscow, russia has a right to refuse a deal in his current form because it was not fair, but at the same time, he was the one who negotiated the deal in the 1st space with the united nation. So how do you explain this change of tone from from turkey, a shirt. Well, i think what um happened, um, weeks, uh months actually before the deal, the rough ends, the bill, every pulled out wheres the russians were deliberately slowing down clearance of the ship. So the strips that were leaving ukraine and going to to the foreign markets. So they basically sabotaged the deal themselves. But thats number one. Look, the other thing is, if i can go back, sorry to something you said earlier about the russians bombing your credit and part infrastructure, you know, lets call a spade a spade. This, the strikes are a direct strike on the global food supply chain. I dont hear the rates from western capital is that this is happening and i think the rushman strategy is to decimate ukraine in port the infrastructure to, to the degree that it can function. And the russians thinking that theyre going to be able to get some world buyers to take to buy grain from them. That would be a very bad development. So what needs to happen right away today . Not even tomorrow is for ukraine to proceed with those unilateral court orders that theyve established across the bike. So you, in recent weeks convert container ships to those big ball carriers. The carry crane with the cover of the western allies, support surveillance plans and also farmed as cords if thats what it takes. Why should poor people in egypt and many other countries be starving to death because of the arrogance of a small group of men in the kremlin. Okay, lets allow andre to respond under your response to that, as well as mobile. What . So this one fits is just the location of the biggest, uh, uh, you know, cheap propaganda which we are kidding uh, each day. So i do wanna thing that uh, as an investment or i should. Uh, well, go on notice pointing for such uh, you know, claims. Well actually, um we are ready to return back can only be one condition. Uh, if this shipments so over the russian brand and fertilizers were gone, and we could have a good time for that. Uh, these uh these uh, you know, export facilities uh accomplished only after the weekend that it turned back to be the claim. Do you go and do you want until no, its not a great deal, but its for the deal as a, as i told you. So i would, the thing is in the kinds of rest of our lives for their lives in all of whom are pop punk, those if they get give access for our our shipments it will be okay. If not, we will block the rest of the do because its fail, its fail. Okay, now, but at the time the last day i started shortage to uber to start the river, already took a liberate the gift, accessed to be a great in great. But we waited for several months until the other part of the, of the, of the green deal. We looked on push, but we didnt have any opportunity for our shipments to go on. And that was the start of the present day crisis. Okay, i wanted to ask you that at a time when were seeing you crane intensify, its so offensive and its drones targeting russia. Is there a real appetite to think for diplomacy and for negotiation, or is it just, you know, talk a sorry about sanctions, right . Well, i think that the rest and gone through scanned the muse themselves to be sunk since it was gone. We had a great, complex half of the thing is we kept great and we kept oil look out for a gas, so they kept uh, you know, a sufficient level of the sophisticated weaponry. So of course, its not a pleasant thing. Took up sections against does, but its not possible and we will go on for our development of abilities. I options to sure but assume the day, but it will come when to the best and confidence to will stop. There are stupid policy of the store trying to sanction for the biggest uh, the largest. The account 3 in the world is confident. The role best buys so much you to let us sources like im sure it. Lets try and move the conversation forward now and said, i want to come back to you because present, go on, has offered himself as a mediator to settle this ukraine conflict. And i want to ask you whether this is feasible. Can he use his of close relationship or what is perceived as close relationship with putting to, to move towards the settlement of this conflict and you create while he is going to try. Thats um, i could most certainly say that because i say important for him, like i said, both for domestic politics and international politics. That would be a great achievement for our dawn. And it could help him to expand his support base back home. Hes describes what many people expected actually um, since the elections are done has been not polarizing, but actually trying to unify the um, the opposition and his supporters. So i think that would be a success there. Mean reaching peace between ukrainian or russian which loans and womans which are the ones mediating rule, which we accuse me dating rule that would uh, brand him, the power, the prestige that hes trying know probably is, is going to be his last term as president. And he would like to be remembered with this magazine, so he will try and he leverage he has on the, the close relations. Now a he has with the west for that purpose. But of course, i mean the remote, there are multiple actors and we cannot quite predict what each actor will will do. So i cannot say whether the piece will be reached in the short run, or in which period it will be reached at could be reached. But i think its in the best interest of all actors. And it looks like, i mean, like, what do you when statements about softening sanctions toward russia . I never think i could see that. Um, some of the russian demands will be respected more in the short run compared to um, the past couple of months. Hm. Okay michael, your thoughts about the sanctions which andrea also talked about. He said, at some point these functions are going to have to go and, and that has been, it would seem some movement and perhaps some reflection about lifting some of these sanctions against russia to give diplomacy a chance. Under no circumstances should maybe they be loose, and in fact they should be tightened to because you still have um the latest and the least people in the late circles around mister fulton investing in certain countries travelling with a band. And so they would set a very bad precedent if the un and the you go ahead and allow the trust in the bank to get back into swift. If they allow that frozen roxanne fertilizer to leave you parts, it would only embolden and encourage other dictators to act like rice ups. I should also add if i can that as or i guess from us it was speaking. I forgot to mention that the belling cat and that theyre very authoritative. Incredible bodies have actually been tracking these phantom russian ships that have been turning off their transport. Transponders and shipping illegally stolen ukrainian grain through russian ports to world markets. Theyre acting like the pirates, and they should be out of comfortable for that as well. Okay, andre your response if you want to respond. And i also want to put to the question about a present or the one offerings offering himself as a mediator to resolve this conflict between russia and ukraine. Ah, how does moscow view this and is there still room an appetite for diplomacy . Well actually a nice thing is that it can go to the sincere we sure all of the gone to be sincere, remediate, or uh, key is uh, the member arriving dokey is the member of the nato. And we are open to leak having the, the, or, uh, well, uh, against the night on the 3rd is that a of ukraine . So this is a very strange. Sure. Uh, you know, i mean the 8 or which belongs to the doctor. We are waging war. We, we uh so uh, i do have things that up this, that them, so it needs to, um, i got a real rich. Uh, uh, you know, some, uh, some send you both success. So okay, the if you would like to go and he is free, but it seems to me that mainly these attempts to uh, to on the line is that frontier needs to be. Let me do that because of the attempt to put in the, in the, in the, you and uh, which will be letters you want the piece of all these months to go on or is uh, securing the new place and then you are url. Oh was overall turkey and these is Security Council arrangements and uh, in the un structure. They uh they are giving the auto group and that uh, the door okay. Should be visiting uh, visa go to the concert because its a very important and major media. And so thats why fi is very much, i mean, just the gun has very much of ingenuous. Think about, well, the andre, just coming back to my question, just coming back to my question, the war cannot go on forever. Right. Is russia interested in settling this conflict . And in diplomacy interested in diplomacy . Well, the thing is that the majority of theyve gone through, so theres nothing this tend or they tend to, to, to, to, to do so to make sure that they dont understand the nature. They measures the publication of, of the 2nd world war, again refreshes them. And theyve got against the nationalism of it to us on the 3rd of the crate. And you, because there was a 1200000 on, all right . That are so that, that, that, or you were kind of over your brain. So there is your think the same. But all this is the same about the euro. Of the confidence of utah printed 2 companies of europe. They uh, you know, helped people are against their war against the story if youre in a so okay, can you find the issues of the war on the okay, might not allow you to respond briefly before we end the show, please . Sure, sure. Yeah, i mean, its almost not worth responding because its the typical russian narrative. But anyway, all i would say is that what were seeing happening right now in terms of diplomacy, the world getting much smaller for russ harper, mr. Booth and we saw what happened and break. So now theyre going to be doing diplomacy with the mullers and around what sign up with other rogue states. So i wish them luck with that and they would see what, how little they get and return and leave it. But they do, you know, that . Yeah, thank you so much for weve run out of time and for music. Unfortunately, thank you so much for a great discussion andre box and all of us to die. Then youre up and michael bush, high school. Thank you and thank you as well for watching. You can always wash this program again any time by visiting our website at all, just 0. Dont com. For further discussion, go to our Facebook Page at facebook dot com, forward slash 8 inside story. Of course, you can join the conversation on x, formerly known as twitter. I handle is i page it inside starting from the, from the back to go and hosting here in doha, thanks for watching the the plan this time will to be legal tray. What you have here is not just american logical objects. Youre talking about the political damage, where the spoils of war smuggled and sold 2 option houses and private collectors, buying or selling. I mean, part of the fact is worth finance is to be headings of muslims in the middle east. Dont sell, dont buy. Thats one quick solution. Ok. Trafficking on i will just say around the colleges the, [000 00 00;00] the are there on the clock. This is a news on life from the coming up, the next 60 minutes. Hon shakes, but in a breakthrough on a new black sea. Greenville president Vladimir Putin tells tech is needed. The