Hello and welcome to the show. Im sammys a them. Britains ministry of defense is saying its possible that criminal may have decided to end funding the wide number scenary group. For years russia had denied the existence of the group level loan and the connections to it. But the organizations attempted much on moscow in june, shed some light on the relationship between the kremlin and wagner. You see, at the end of june, the russian president spoke about how wagner had received a 1000000000. 00 from the states. Now the British Military says the split between moscow and wagner is growing. So why would any move against the fighting forces . Finances, leave it. Where would it leave roches interest and hot spots worldwide will explode those questions with on guess in a moment. But 1st, this report castillo has already on they were hired to help russia slightest war and ukraine. Now, the Wagner Mercenary group may be dealing with its own financial battle. Britons Defense Ministry says its possible. Moscow was no longer funding the private army, particularly after his leader took guinea precaution. Littlefield mutiny in june against russias military leadership in question. Do you 40 of president prudent . So oh, yeah. Your mob without mos calls backing, the private military is likely looking to downsize and restructure its finances. Going to bill a roosters perhaps part of that plan. I cannot give you a clear answer about whether uh the future of wagner lives here or there. I will say this at present, wagner is not fighting in ukraine elements. The wagner have, in fact moved developers. Buckner, set up a base and bella roof last month, reportedly hired to train local troops. Neighboring poland thinks its a ploy to the stabilize the region and spill into its territory. Its deployed thousands of troops through the border with more on the way it shouldnt be too good to be. We have to be ready for any scenario in the poland batteries board, and thats why we have decided to move the army closer to the boat to scare away the aggressor so that it doesnt their attack. Permanent african nations have long been a source of money for the wagner group. Many believe both russia and the private army will try to take advantage of the instability in these year. Following the recent, the group is most active and Central African republic, libya, molly and sudan, all of which have fragile relationships with the west. Its often provided Security Services and parent military assistance and instead of money, sometimes its been paid with access to gold mines. I did the good news as far as our collaboration with the wagner group, weve had talks with russian authorities and weve discussed the support weve been receiving for years. That support has enabled the Central African republic to make progress in terms of security, and it must continue. Thats all i can say about that. Political influence is perhaps another factor for years prudent has use of factor mercenaries to promote russias Foreign Policy abroad, seemingly denying direct involvement. Now, leaders in africa and elsewhere may be forced to choose between rushes leadership or the support of the vatican, or group cod. See a little piece of the again, for insight story, the well lets bring our guests into the show. We have joining us from london, patrick theory, a defense and Security Specialist at the university of boss in moscow. So gay ma call for a former public spokesman for president Vladimir Putin and director of the institute of Political Studies in moscow and bumming and stuff and wolf, professor at the university of birmingham and specialist on post conflict state building and was countries one welcome to old if i could stop in with patrick, so patrick, the British Ministry of defense says its possible the criminal is decided to when funding for the whitening group. How much actual evidence do we see of that . The yeah, its an interesting one and thanks for having us on the show at Defense Intelligence, which is a part of the Ministry Defense as it is realistically possible. So using their language basically that helps. And in the area by 40 to 50 percent. So they arent sure uh from, from using their sources. Well, what we have seen in terms of some of the contracts and other open source for boarding is progressive is by her group, obviously for the status for being duty shaft and supplying. And in the earlier years, uh with this catering business and also then increasing that business around the bush and particularly the contacts and the ministry of defense to feed the ocean are all we have seen since some more started with a lot of complaints on a lot of a stage of the food from conscripts and such, turning off i complaining about the quantity of food that they were given. And immediately after the rebellion in june, excuse me, is we call the potentially the we starting to see reports that those the ministry, the russian Ministry Defense i called the taser in contrast to go. So uh you can see that in the day they gave him a back and forth between the m o d and the back bedroom, but out the bad as being to push the precautions business interest from the ministry to pass. So thats one example of the evidence that we have from open source. All right. Okay, so gay, is that the general picture that you all seeing . Does it look like the russian state is beginning to come back in and its funding to vice. Uh i see because that uh uh, box your uh group will be a great box. Uh, you know, uh the fee is, uh, uh, this will forward this uh, as the best brian admitted to the group. Uh, it was a little more to understand the price. So itd be best to that same type unplug the way the importance of rule. Uh, is that you couldnt give it more. Uh, ease a month or always the box does not just uh, uh, to back back. Whats not the important stuff is that instead of just from the point of good channels, but im doing very important instead of just being uh, in general, try russian. I need to try to repair. Uh, east defense line against the price. It gives you a chance. Uh, a jack pumped you could. Yeah, i mean if you just box it, i mean, or united states, a name and a box now. Uh, do these quotes. Yeah. Does that have somebody i can plug it in for 0. 10 for both of them and theyre going to know hows that youre getting it from going from you. So im kind of going to bed and uh and uh, you schedule it out for a few days. So ive actually gone without. Uh, i need to tell some people to say, uh, search. Uh uh, you know, people who are most bottled, zacks, the ones that no, uh, uh, 30 percent of them not getting those boxes. They ask for my home, but the type of the bonus best so uh, troops saves there and also to use them as a ukraine. Yeah, i finished them over the age and also create new people homes, expedite. But i assume from it again, that is, you know, so to use them use their and the guns because talk about, thats good. But the point i was is, do you see any train thats the kind of indication now that the russian state is ending, solve its contracts and funding to walk now to uh no. Uh is it, uh, is this uh, find the Financial Support decrease but not the ups store because it actually is uh, going with our trustworthy ive done the net 90 percent of that book and to provide a grade. And then from say im, i think well be using different kind of asian tops. Okay, well pick you up later on the point of reorganizing. But coming to stuff on is a clear that the kremlin has actually decided what to do with the wife now. And its lee the progression the, the reason i asked that is if you look at some incidents that have happened since june, at one point we saw a far as hes right, the home of the wife and a boss. And they seized a lot of money. But then they would tell them the money, a 111000000. 00 were told was the back and forth. I dont think its very hard to judge by the crime is actually decided what to do is mark on zone me that would require a level of intelligence that certainly is not available on open sources. And i think what we need to bear in mind too is that because in the Business Plan that she has built over the years extends fall beyond box. And some of those to use, the precaution potentially still has 4 of 14. So what was the bach nice sort of do dive Headline News if you want. It has been for, for many months off, but at the same time the glue was an extra cost. Actual companies Show Companies that precaution has to do over the years. So it is all the very important for put in, in terms of dealing with the sanctions where she has been imposed on. And so actually getting stuff into russia increasing the also depends on the types of businesses and piles of people like big dollars in hospitals. So even if we say its a basic kind stephanie saying hes too valuable to completely eliminate. So again, i mean, this is very hard to judge because its not entirely clear how much control the crumbling, what anybody choose to the criminal could rust from going over. So the, the brass Office Operations are, i would certainly say that the value factor, because in still is a life and seems to have a certain degree of freedom of movement would indicate that you still has significant value to the kremlin. That puts and has decided that she has one, okay, being wrong. All right, that we dont have any wall on the show who is very close to progression, but we do have so guy who was the public spokesperson for allowing me to pose in and close to the kremlin. So maybe we can ask you from your perspective and your understanding so, okay, why hasnt the russian president punished as he put those responsible for treason was the, the announcement he made 2 months later, well see no sign of that is that because progression has proved to be too valuable because of the networks of commotion and trustees built up pretty close. Im not, we will not because as an amended measurement, this whole argument plays really important strong last year or so thats why has there been punish then ive got because youre not guilty, but uh, ive seen chris was the subject areas. Its in pretty good friends and, but i should defense ministers and the most. Com to both sides was a little bit guilty a little bit. Right. Was this the show . So it was not that bad in the case, the rest and i thought it was the so good help us to understand who did Vladimir Putin being then when he said hes going to punish those who are trees. And this, if he wasnt talking about wagner or per goshen you know, it was out when i was going to go back to the fire. Just move to say, im all sports. Was it important to give strong spot with the crow . Uh uh, you know, whats funny about sizes i there and would you, me, off the to where i could have been, i decided that said this and that you just sent those that are going to be taken from people. And it will stay till 5, you know, of build a bunch of the concerns. Well stay where its pretty gorgeous and she is not the district and also to get a lawyer. Okay, to uh, budget for the kitchen. And i need you to uh, to set up to the concert it is, it is the assets, well, uh, well chosen, just so uh knows if he, some of the partners is there. Uh, what does it say this is for you to be boxed to you and your people are uh because its cool. A elizabeth kid. Well, what is your face . The big qual, uh, is that not the right to right dennis . So now is this all they have now which control by because a little bit under 10 percent rooms that produce. Alright, lets uh, bring patrick backend. So pantry, what we here from. So again, moscow is that provision isnt guilty of anything. And to the question, or do we see any sign in that in ending or counting or downsizing the state funding . No. So gay says, how does that jell then a very different picture than what were being presented with in the west from weston sources, like the position of that tree of defense . How do we deal those 2 pictures together . A yeah, i think this 2 things going on. First of all is that, you know, the, what we can all agree on here is that i mentioned it is fine or, and also you k Defense Intelligence are much more confident and not part of their assessments. They said it was like a so 55 to 75 percent the 5 years under going every organization and a restructuring. So the next to design is have loyalty. It is the funding from the russian stage as being color co completed. Theyre much less, as i mentioned, confidence in my reading of a is a partner of the russian. Im of the with priority not getting off. And so theres been a d coupling there. And 2nd re, to the is to get for the wagner. I of russia slash you, great. So to be conflicts and then ive done that and get them out of there. So some of them have gone up to uh to better roads. Youre not sure exactly. Hammond and i tell you what im in fulton is state funding then to the wagner group, if this is really going on, if the inside. Yeah. Open Source Information that uses suggest that there at least downsizing some of the contracts with wagner group, is that the flooding survival of white glove state contracts. I think some of the m o d u contacts were for large numbers and therefore quite important. But i think if you look at back there as a Global Enterprise and a lot of there, and again, this is, you know, i dont have x and sources into this or any special insight. But what we do now is a lot of the deals they come with the regimes, they end up supporting in cricket involving either access to resources in return for providing services or just cash deals. So thats what i wanted to support to other machines, but also like further russian interests by providing protection for russian overseas assets like the g r u for example. And how does it seem as uh and work closely with that that we dont know the exact nature of that relationship . I dont know. I would, we, you know, that would be something for the Intelligence Services on page. But we know what exist. Again, in open source, i wouldnt understand, i wouldnt be at this because we have much of a monetary value they get from that out of but the whole or i tied to relevance and emissions day to now i can understand its gonna be hard to put a number on this kind of question, but stefan you did mention Wireless Network of commercial interests and assets around the world in africa, mines resources. Is that enough to keep the group afloat regardless of how its relationship with the russian state . Goes . I would imagine so because its really well the full on the mass of increase in each state funding or in some of the numbers that has been floating around and invest the media is that uh so uh, so is the 1st 1215 months of to go and ukraine bos, boston may have received all of a 1000000000 dollars, whereas in payments uh, from the Washington State budget. Uh, what was the model that false links to the massive increase in tooth number so. So the requirements campaign that job bought, carried out in russian prisons off the 10s of thousands of on the contractual stuff. And then you was doing that or was, i mean, all of that was way beyond with walking across the school. I mean, so you mentioned, i mean to call lock, no radius of maybe up to 5000 of veterans of Russian Special services. The 2 notes induced have survived wide roll up before the boy in ukraine. And i would imagine that they will continue to the wife quite role of wicks office with bruce and every services that they provide. Scenarios african regimes of the protection to what were seeing as much an interest sense on plus um sort of the close end up spending of this more of a poll of operation but the commercial interest because i think thats the key piece of business implant as a whole is quite rather fluid, but also careful for us to come. So you mentioned that in your reading of the situation, the russian state is insipid, to re organize, wife knows. I think the words you chose that does that include looking for all the alternatives to wagner . All the avenues or tools to extend russian power. Uh uh, just for a 2nd cuz then uh uh, is this a private through uh use in general that minutes before i really go. Uh, again, i got this as joseph, all successful or not. Okay. I can just do i did it just um, but uh uh was the social is like i said, uh private group should be use box was all sides and be says by people like getting people. I dont see my letter that says that somebodys use this read it. I so know that a, that somebody would say i and i would say um, new private groups reach that processor that we use by us and go a little bit. And theres a more accurate kind of control pulls that now more i agree. And that is possible if you so you, its the gross as new, private military groups to we dont know, this is not decided this year. What is decided as the source you prior to i made it to go be stronger. It was in process of our mission as a full credit that they come to, you know, uh, to work as possible as a, uh, we will be through uh, boxed us anytime you and you said something about the you groups have been north lake. Uh yes, uh and i believe so. So. So to exist, to a border space. Uh around most of its not actually a bunk bed. Uh to create something. Can you under such conditions . I seem to know what uh, what is the uh, uh, come to the president s was, uh no zillow site here. So its me is this right now is it probably means that the letters you mentioned something about 5 percent of the 5 percent of ive got it real quick and ill be on us by 90 percent stage in the rush. What to do was it sounds like about 4 to 5 bucks a 1000 people as a extremely frustrating. So does this what youre part of the little part as a how long sounds good to use it. So carlos, i should be around. This is a little bit get a hold to get that was uh, i just, oh, thats a big deal i do for uh, just uh in as i did as soon as its still in progress. And we dont see any evidence of that. All your because this happen. Yeah. All right, time will tell, i guess if i can bring patrick back in. So what kind of old ton it is . Does the kremlin have in extending its power overseas right now . How important vital is wagner group. Now that is a fine thing for us. But also as stefan was explaining a, a nexus of commercial interests of some why are you doing this . Is it doesnt potentially named menu or there are other options that are all smaller or less. Thats well known, but also less capable as we understand the diner in the same sort of network of Shell Companies networks. Hello. Ill head a hole in getting and navigating best and sanctions no, they dont. If you look at whats happening and in my reading of this would be to, does that make me fire and its still very special. Yeah, friends of course, of course, because its part of the problem and then theyre too close. Yeah. Theyre dangerous. So wherever they are, when theyre from their address backwards interest and whose interest in the russian states allowing, well they align if you put them in by the roots, a contingency of them there to trying to find a rush and for those keep tabs on the shank oh, i know so keep the polls worried that is a great use of 500 resorts, is they align if you chose to tell them to get there and just do that and start adam for many rebellion down there to potentially open the 2nd from the more instability, and i forget they align if you do the same in the share. So that is thats whats going on, you know, and its where did our interest align and where are they still useful versus wherever they too dangerous to keep close whats going on. And therefore, i dont actually think theres a match. So as long as the partner could sell those, those missions of be enough for managing rebecca and then siding with, with military or talk with, you know, talk receives in these places. And its a win win for clinton as well. Their lesson is just dont have them to post. So again, do you think the appetite is growing in some parts of the world . Full russian influence full wagner and places like nice. Yeah, weve heard its been reported that vision is qu late as have reached out to wagner, or maybe in areas as patrick was suggesting. Like so then and uh, you know, uh ever, we didnt know that uh, uh, boxes we use the best uh, friday and so security to compliment and so were good to go to us. One more. Do you know about . And the 2nd i would say you might be more of a matter of opinion, might it not . So again, you might get a different reading if you speak to somebody that tree, unless it looks at some of the wagner operations in ukraine. Ah, you know, ive heard this term. Its a little less uh some people can say, oh is there a holes and devils, but uh, what was that what, what it is that is that really professional way is really excess minutes. Its all. And also it gives you the musical. All right, were going through in a minute pantry. Well, thats so got to finish out the phone. Well come back to punch in a minute. Go, go ahead, finish up the thoughts. Okay. Yeah, yeah, uh would you engage a quote for the stuff you need to not because we understand more is likely to do the pickup. Uh well do, mobs inside. Sure. Uh which is a box and it was outside of it, but it was oh uh zill awesome. I, ive seen this at the top such as simple uh, printers, not products. All right, perfect. Go ahead. Do you wanted to come in . I said you had a slightly different perspective on this. I just dont agree the wagner are the are the best. Uh, probably the amenities security going to be in the world. No. I think that means challenging to say they have proven themselves, especially in you grained at the rapid rate of growth and their ability to integrate Russian Ministry systems are given to them by the d, as for middle, is the largest willing to take casualties. But if you are looking at private manager companies from the west, they would have, obviously, i would say, paying for pounds, especially the ones that recruit from special courses. They are smaller, but they would have a higher skilled level of potentially lower profile. And certainly a lower a record of them, a few in right to be successful. Alright, lets bring in stuff on. Does the kremlin have a choice to make it in some areas . If its true, its been reported that some areas, some parts of the world are looking for assistance from wagner. Theyre looking for russian influence. But at the same time, if the crandon has now got some 2nd thoughts about wagon off to the whole excursion in june, somebody is going to make some hard decisions about how it shapes the vehicles of its future. Foreign influence of that sort of thing. I completely agree with this. I think the choice that the criminal needs to make is what kind of influence it wants to try to develop the world and how this influenza play out in the mountain. So as we have seen, for example, a d r watch drive for custom, it in st. Petersburg at the end of june off, i mean that clearly it was on an event where sort of rush out, try to project itself as a stabilizing a false false that would continue over to what would contribute to reading the global solves that just generating more. Disaffected with the call in just the international. But at the same time, i think the try quite go to frustrated and actually achieving this kind of insurance, both commercial economic development, but also military is, is not that great if you look for somebody, right, jason, and most of the day off wagner has been a picture for quite some time in the security situation that has no that will improve. So i mean, effectiveness of lock not is reading a number of you thats known. Executive did the wheel track record of a block know providing to kind of a great a secure the table they dont to in the value. Is they support regime so very narrow. It leads to the congress to entertain. That group is all that is all eyes full, full. Whats your phone policy . All im afraid we all around the times. Were going to have to leave it then lets think congress very much stuff on. So gay. And patrick, im thank you to for watching. You can see the show again, any time by visiting our website, algae 0. Dont. Com for further discussion head over to our facebook page, thats facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story. Can also join the conversation on x dot com. Our handle is a j inside story from me. So i may say that im being time fellow goodbye. The hey just to put out a nother fire that had been a rather large across the country for days yesterday and the business good. My entire life fire fighters, theyre saying that theres very little they can do with these extremely heavy wind while the world is focusing a lot on the tourist. The local, real desperation here about how much theyve lost 35 square kilometer as of last greenforest and woodland has been burned, really does resemble an army gettin landscape. The hello, kimberly help in the hi. Here the top story is on al jazeera. There has been classes in and around libby as capital tripoli that after the detention of a powerful commander whose forces control much of the city arrival, forest captured my fluid hums uh, interplay according to those loyal to him. All flights in and out of the airport has been suspended monday afternoon. This