Hello welcome to the program. Im adrian said again, this is new ministry rulers are in a stand off with the west, and some of the neighbors refusing to hand back power to the man. They ousted the countrys board. As all closed, the president mohammed bassoon has been in contact with the outside world, speaking to us secretary of state and to the blinking among others, change times from only a few months ago when thinking dropped by, its a visit measure, seen as an important us ally of west africa, but the one whos allegiance is now in Southern France has retained a ministry force and its full of economy. But tens of thousands of supporters of the crew leaders rallied in the capital to protest against the french presence. They want foreign troops gone. I think he was fond of exploiting dish as wells of Natural Resources will assess the implications of the crisis with, i guess in just a few moment. But 1st lets talk to our corresponded in neighboring nigeria. Im gonna address it. How much support does this crew have within that . Yeah. And outside the country, adrian going by the demonstrations. We so uh, over the past few days or 2 weeks since the cool. I will say its significant, but its hard to compare with the support by them has uh or the government of president mohammed by them has because remember, this is a man who was elected by a majority votes into the office. And of course, there are also to be trusted, the Civil Society who condemned the military cool images. So we can say the military leaders have significant support from uh, southern part of the population, especially in the capital near me, which has been an opposition stronghold. So what are the implications of this crew on it . Because youre not maybe, 1st of all to the country itself, since the cool, which see external donors, partners of this year, helping in terms of food supplies, education, health care, delivery, water supplies, and even agriculture. Air sydney find the interest to cut aid and that is happened and well continue to see such happening in the future. Now with that neighbors trade has been closed, voters have been closed and trade has been cut off with news. Yes. Is especially in the night with an idea of which the Electricity Supply from nigeria, which supplies most of the electricity is. Yeah. And joyce has been cut off. And so is it can only trade rings. This is having a significant effect on the local population on the local economy. What we see right now is that a normal business transaction is helping to across of to the bodies of the 2 countries. Hundreds of people on the normal day was across the full range and i didnt have to just talk up on supplies and go back to media. And, but since the announcement of sanctions, i guess, be shared by the kind of a community of west african states, were seeing a slow down a complete shut down of the border. So no trade is happening. And apart from that, that also will put a lot of pressure on the local kind of move, seen the inflation going through the rules. What, what are the chances of that of a Regional Ministry intervention against the coo latest . When more and more we see the authorities in yeah, yeah. May a digging in. They dont have any intention of happening over power. What were seeing from the early days of uncertainty, they have no stop is a what seems like a government that they want to continue running on. Weve seen them point governors for the various regions and pointing mass ministers to help the government run your business. And then recently assume that a point, a prime minister, so that shows you would that be a digging in for a long time and exploits. Oh, i know this believe that as long as this is enough to continue, it would be difficult to negotiate our attempt to democracy in these. Yeah, this is what we see. Or what do we saw in countries like modeling and were looking at possible it all started like this. And then suddenly we are in for a long wait for democracy to reach out to those countries. So the site to Community Forest is still that, according to i caused by the game, the appetite for immediate deployment of forces is not there. What we can see is that, yes, the 3rd or 4th is still in the table, but we dont know how soon they want to do that. Ill just, heres an address reporting from a bu jeff manufacturing date im at in the region is of course, no stranger the military clues which have toppled several governments in recent years. News yet is just the latest. 2 weeks ago mohammed bus, who was detained by members of his president ial god in august 2020. Mollys army us to president abraham book k, to off the mass Anti Government protest. An injury and civilian government was appointed to been forced out. And today molly remains on the ministry rule in september 2021 soldiers and they bring guinea over through president also come, they not followed the dispute to the election. And his campaign for us the last year in became a fast so that was not one but 2 cruise. Within months of each of up ill be kept in even him throat a remains in control that also last year 11 people were killed during a failed crew. And gave us all of the so lets bring it out. Guess for todays discussion from a boucher were joined by and i have some director of the center of democracy and development of policy and Research Organization focusing on democracy and development in west africa from london. But joined by alexis, our quick g, im who is the managing editor at new site center for africa and from washington, dc, camera and hudson City Associates at the center for strategic and international studies. A welcome to you will camera. And lets start with you, how rapidly is the window to solve the crisis in does yet diplomatically closing, its probably already closed my sense from the events of the last, just 24 hours uh by the hunter, in the chair, a pointing a civilian prime minister, appointing a civilian cabinet to help administer affairs of state. I suspect that very quickly, theyre going to announce an 18 month or 24 month transition to do an auctions. They have been avoiding negotiating with american officials with, with regional officials from the eco laws because they want to present the world with a fair complex. They dont want to negotiate with the international community, the terms of a restoration of either president by zoom or democracy in the country. They want to present us with their terms for how the country will be administered and open to us to try to negotiate or walk back what is already happened. So i think the quicker than washington and others acknowledge the fax on the ground. I think the more progress we can, we can get made in trying to talk to these qu, leaders, because right now theres absolutely no progress being made and trying to engage them. Alexis, would you agree with that . And will i could, was intervene militarily. If you think of it, it has a pretty shaky history when it comes to restoring order in countries and boiled in conflict. What are the risks of the tree intervention in this . Yeah, i mean, 1st of all, i agree with everything. Colin said, i think the window ultimately is closing rapidly. If it hasnt closed completely, i think in terms of costs intervening, i dont think they will intervene militarily. Theyve said repeatedly that is the last result. I think if anything, they were probably 50 in offering the as a solution at some stage for the risk now for them is that theyre going to be in a situation where they are in a situation where by the bulk is being perceived as far worse than his bite, and theyre going to be looking for some kind of diplomatic solution, some way in which i can hold back for, im just putting the front on the table. So dont want to do that. I dont know how that going to bodies to do that. This can be tricky. Um this is all going to come up present when they meet tomorrow in a project to discuss the way forward. It wont be very tricky to try and cut off some kind of mentoring intervention simply because, well, 1st of all, even before we get to the just explain to part and bind as big heads of state in that cost me to buy. And if the right people specifically not generally does being the Largest Force and the biggest kind of pulse of money behind that costs. So what youd be seeing that tonight too and send it to norma because i said that they do not get this the backend. So even before you look at the terrain, vol, size of ms. A. And how this, what happened on the ground, you still need to get past the political barrier. Once you get past that, i dont think they really is not the type for this. It would be very popular domestically for a number of these countries, and then they will be trying to install a president whos no longer particularly popular because clearly it has a ground sort of support from what the junk has taught. So, i mean, i think itd be very tricky. Okay, but it have to agree with, with what youve just heard of, and how can this be solved diplomatically . I mean, is this an internal dispute between missionary and elite . Is there actually broad Popular Support for what theyve done . And i think there is actually nothing like a good school, even though the school hes actually be a soldier to us. I cvt, they go to cool that she said its kind of to be corrected. I the so for our lives and also uh we all got thats popular. So folks at b g yet that was baffled by me. Oh, a foot. Theres also puts in people who belong to some sort of the ginger was so might have to move on there. But i think that it made sure change thats actually responsible for the dates. Are there any identifying issues that please and leave the house here and on the call the uh, with an additional list on fees. Oh, so come on very strongly to make some sort quotes uh included sir. What we have here with the particular makes fee would be made the best way possible of these impasse camera this year plays an Important Role in the us as Counter Terrorism operations in the region. Why is the us to caring whats happened in asia . A cool as well, it hasnt because it wants to keep its options open as soon as the state department declares that it has been a accrued in the country, there requires an automatic suspension of the kind of military assistance of both intelligence provision, but also the training and equipping that were doing with counterterrorism units in the country, so that gets suspended uh virtually immediately. And so i think washington wants to try to preserve that for as long as it can. And again, it is, it is sticking to this notion that, that the window for diplomacy remains open. They are holding out hope that they can somehow or versus, and go back to a status quo ante of 2 weeks ago. But i think as the days go on, that reality looks like its less and less likely, and theyre going to be faced with a choice as to whether or not they declared this a crew. And then theyre going to have to be faced with another choice which is whether or not despite the cube, they continue to maintain counterterrorism cooperation with the military hunter. And again, i think this will be a set of hard choices that washington has to make it as spouses, democratic principles in these countries. But it also has hard security interest that it wants to pursue. And so how it balances those 2 kind of competing priorities in a case like me share is something that washington hasnt wanted to, to have to decide on. And thats why it is, you know, holding, holding fast to this idea. That is, it is a military takeover, but it is not a, could you talk about these, these, these hard Strategic Priorities that exist in indies yet for the us, the cover. And i mean how determined is the us to stay in this . Yeah. How important is it, what, what is it but the, the us is doing in this . Yeah. Could you foresee a situation where somebody, us, whatever, got involved militarily . No, i cant see a situation with us is going to be involved militarily. Lets remember that in 2017 for us servicemen were killed in the chair conducting Counterterrorism Operations on their own. Ever since that moment, washington has taken a big step back in terms of being on the front lines of this kind of terrorism fight. They are providing train and equip and assistance through intelligence support uh to the new jerry and military and the other militarys in the region, but they are no longer on the front lines of the counterterrorism battle. I think thats a deeply unpopular and misunderstood frankly, by the american public. And i dont see that as a step that washington is going to be willing to take if it loses its partnership with, with the new jerry and military, alexis acting us deputy secretary of state victoria newland. Travel to new share on monday to speak with coolie to she described that talks as extremely frank could of times quite difficult bought all the coolly those options right now theyve rejected attempts to mediate a way out of this crisis. How much room for maneuver do they have . What is the strategy moving forward . Do you think they could continue the same, started doing that theyve employed, which is essentially to say nothing and to not deal with those who are trying to sit negotiations because ultimately all these courses quote, but they probably make the calculation that the west potentially for us and funds do not want to be seen to get involved because someone to this has been started by on to west and sentiments. So then is, what does that cost for the ones who put you on the table, the military intervention will be an option. So therefore, it actually plays into the very just best interest to say nothing to those who are trying to negotiate with them and brought up to talk to those who might be allies in some way, shape or form v vi. But cant, if i saw molly or even the russians. So, i mean, i imagine thats probably what theyre looking to do in terms of other options. Have been coming to georgia to they said, yeah, well, a ton through we say look, if people vote from for democratic transition, then we will set the times. We will dictate how that happens. We will not be dictated to. So what its doing is that all they have to do is to make appointments, which weve seen them doing and then present a follow response which is different type of transition versus how its going to play out and then that way. But get what they want. But they get what they want on their own times if they have a how danger some of it is for the, the, the, why, the region, if there was any kind of ministry and dimension in his. Yeah. How would that play out playoffs in, in, in neighboring countries . Do you think that they will ultimately be a democratic transition in this . Yeah, once again, i mean, how long is it gonna take, look, whats happened elsewhere in the region . You shot, you have a one to play with the me. Somebody has actually played these. And when you look at the model, you saw that there was a relative addition to the games you see on call. Im for cannot be had the concert. So the want to play bases bite, the other one goes to the tape, send the fax that i have to fix it to go. Im not buy one. The last 4 can, you know, the process will say, and i also think that need to be, we hope shes fixing how important they have to the western world. Didnt know how beautiful they actually drove the ministry, the full. So this was uh, the very hudson nigeria for a sense like 60 percent, all media media around demetria then bought was data club this the same with their brothers and people to people with pollution and she didnt like, gee, theres booking this model which makes it that has changed, its difficult to read it to actually do into prayer as a form of insect bearer. Whats on that . We have to be securing the that is actually a game many type of was the guy from this i heard so and the so really would use secure environment as well, which is the form of the people. This is a full season benefit disposal nigi people around and such as the kind of sites it to, im sure, but you know, these, they have this thing, right . And this is actually driving. Why driving down variables. This is why the kind of big data loss we will have to actually find the weights and maybe its in the book because its not just about the listing. Useful is quite important because were talking about the concern. I dont think its from countries nom de negates re read j, which represents a loss of stress for front of the stuff weve got out of the remaining parts of west africa. So you alexis, on the other, you, what does it come in . The full echo was bent, the nations a rule by self imposed military leaders right now at a suspended from the body. 2 of those countries, but kito faso and molly are supporting the 2 in this. Yeah. What do you make of that . I think thats the product of self preservation ultimately because they know that if they do not show a full strength and show united front, then they could be that because they set cost for it to follow through with the threats and to really cracked down on the i particularly like this, im going to terminate, then they know that they would be next in the firing line. So thats what im a provide. I dont believe there is necessarily a genuine united front. I mean, they say, well, i just think that they are already stretched on the wrong funds because the thing that we havent touched on is the fact that this country is what unifies them. Is the threat they will face for me to invest in settings. So molly became if i saw that both red, stretched, military in terms of fighting drugs and such and says, and so i think ultimately if i dont have the results just to really come and present a united front with bruce on the ground to support and kind direction right, come or how long been before a return to democracy in new cher, if there is a transition from military will, will economic sanctions be enough to to push this forward rapidly when military paychecks dont get paid will accumulate as be able to retain the support of the rank and file military. Well, thats going to be a hard question to answer right now. Um, you know, i think its, its worth remembering that this cool, even though it was led by the president ial guard within a matter of hours the president ial guard was able to, to bring on board all the Service Chiefs from all of the different uh, wings and units of the military, so this is not a junior officer. Uh, you know cool. This is a senior officer who uh it has the, the, the support of, uh, what seems to be the entire armed forces in the country. Um so, but again, i think the question is, you know, as the sanctions imposed by ego loss as the Development Assistance thats been cut off from the us and European Partners as that all begins to bite. And you see, as we heard before, our installation start to rise. Uh, electricity rates going lower. Um, you know, of businesses being affected, people not being able to travel students not being able to go abroad for classes, you know, these kinds of things that are going to affect, you know, everyday people in the country and their pocketbooks and their bank accounts. I think then youre going to start to see, you know, perhaps some, some pressure on the, on the, on the, on the, on to leaders. But again, lets remember the 100 leaders have a pointed, uh, you know, and a respected economist to serve as the prime minister. They are hoping that they can circumvent uh, some of the pain of the sanctions by re imposing uh, you know, democratic uh you know, ministers in the government to run uh, the government. Uh, theyll be looking for other partners clearly and molly and the share, but also perhaps in russia and others who they, they can continue to trade with. So again, i think though there is now given the number of crews that have happened in the region, there are a number of alternatives that countries have been employing to get around the pain of isolation and the pain imposed by sanctions. And i think the share will, will likely try to follow that same path. Alexis, russias voc, that group is active in the region. Its expensive care to say against the ability of composing war crimes. The reports that an issue has colinas of exchange supportive signals with the group. What are the implications of batch for the us and the white a region, if vox that is both engineers. Yeah. I mean, i think the implications for the why to region them for the us is that this tripping not only a loss of the west closest ally in the region, but then also and all the staging post for the from russia and for voc that to deepen its influence and pay for insurance. Were seeing this in a number of countries already. Theyve been called in in multi ammonia, pushed out the french troops. They pushed out as much as un peacekeepers were saying that my Central African republic, they called a presence insur done. So, i mean, ultimately we could see the russians having access to the drug and by stop the us have the funds also have a base that and then be owned by. Its just a deep thing in terms of the propaganda. More on the power and improvement step i sure can have in the region somebody, i think thats ultimately what is a stake, a camera. Do you have any thoughts on that . Well, i think that, you know, russia, this, the role of russia has been, i think, over stated in this uh, up to this point. I dont think that russia has the ability to really change the course of events or to engineer these events in the country. The idea that these russian flags have appeared at a, at the protest. And the last week i think, is more of a statement of the anti french sentiment than it is pro russian sentiment. At this point i think its shorthand for and ty, france at this point, and so im, obviously russians are great opportunities. They are gonna look at this opportunity now to drive a wedge between the chair and its western partners and look to exploit that. But again, washington has think, has been very clear this week with the visit of the state department official. Uh that any cooperation with the wagner group would be a red line for washington. And if they hope that uh, theyll be able to main site, maintain some kind of military partnership with washington. It can only occur if there is no longer in the country. That is that picking up on, on what cameron was saying that about anti french sentiment was 78 percent of the crews in sub Saharan Africa since 1990 taking place in francophone states. Is it too simplistic to say that the recent trend of cruise in west africa reflect the legacy of French Colonial rule for has each and every qu, in the states, been driven slowly by domestic issues and a regional insecurity. And i think its a combination, i think region a secure disease circle on the table. So when you look at the tree on the poles and see if you read to us, come for the collection is also contributed to discrete data including tax. So the freely of democracy to, to give you better governments to the people in formal public goods that savage to passage then you can have their habits. I what supports tennessee. Im having friends, feelings within the last couple of years have kind of prior to induce quantity. And so i believe i also went from the start history that they had a guessing put back in lots of this information also on the graph that is actually outlier. And these to assist to shift the hunter actually came by a brown in to access the people. And the question to people also result of times what was a sense of the basic you cannot actually to leave are totally good sense. It is just to inform you from pain, the basic as security which ive had for what speech, which is, whats in the all the table in the shape. Im making it to look at it. You said who was wanting it to see it sees it by the one that does that to the didnt you . Oh my god for the for the border of west africa. Gosh, i think maybe when you text what your politics, alexis, perhaps youd like to, to pick up on, on what i was saying. The industry has experience a series of cruise since 1974. Is that, is there anything to set this latest one apart from the others or, or is it part of a packing port button . But i think what really sets this apart is just for timing. And the fact that this was a point in time, which is that was very much seen as a runaway system. Com. I mean, alternately, im gonna say, which is the. Com. Obviously theyve been going through an insurgency. Im financial relatives and in the context of the other dominos folded in the region, i think thats what set to the part. I think the other thing that sets the part is demographic issues. I mean, ultimately on many indices, they sit on the walls, pores, countries, and right now, theres a point this point, its Inflection Point went by there around 24000000 people. And that population is expected to pretty much triple for 2050. So at this point in time, whats different is before that been a series of tours and theyve been on the best, wherever is. Theyve been a democratic transition 2 years ago. The 1st one of its cards in the country. And that was an opportunity to have a countable governance. Its a very young population, and people do not have a lot of money. So that was a beautiful put you to, to, at this moment in time for the country to have Pruitt Health care and back to education a back to sounds of living. Now the difficulty we have now is if you dont have a comfortable governance, then the reason is 74. 00 planning that is needed to just type our charge. The front of the country may need and camera we. Weve got about a minute left to me, but you would you agree with that . How do you see with this pending out in the, in the days and weeks ahead . I think that, you know, one thing that were, youre seeing right now is a sense that this country is reclaiming its sovereignty. That word sovereignty has been used a lot in the local press recently and by the one to leaders. And theres a real appeal to public sentiment around this idea of, of sovereignty. And so i think that the bloom is gonna come off of that relatively quickly as uh, as people realize what they are getting up when they, when they take that sovereignty back in that way. The things that, that are associated with that the Development Assistance. Uh, as, as alexis was saying, all of the programs that improve health care, improve security, improve education, improve livelihoods. Those are all being put at risk right now. And those are risk that the hunter is willing to take its, but im not sure that over the long term the population is going to be particularly happy with having uh, that trade off made on their behalf. Okay. That we must have it. Im afraid manufacturing data for taking part in todays program that has signed alexis, our college, it, im and cameron hudson, as always, thank you for watching. You can see the program again at any time by going to the website to algebra dot com for further discussion, join us about Facebook Page at facebook dot com forward slash h a inside story, and you can join the conversation on twitter. Handle of h a inside story from the adrian team here though, thanks for watching. Well see you again. 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