Transcripts For ALJAZ Inside Story 20240711

Famously Lady Reading Hospital in basra law. Applied running out there were 90 basins in the isolation ward and died of god included mostly 19 kids however 7 of them died because there was an immediate guard off of the oxygen supply. To gates and later sure that there were criminal negligence because nobody were demanding that the orders done correctly at the border have a minimum of 10 dogs and all of a rare liberal however day was known there were no backup. There were north dolphin on location. In other news people in ghana are voting to choose their president and members of parliament the main president ial contender is on the dole and the man he replaced 4 years ago John Dramani Mahama egypts president is in paris for a 2 day state visit. Meeting a man youre not home activists are urging the french president to use a visit to address egypts Human Rights Violations and push for the release of Political Prisoners Irans Foreign Ministry says its welcoming the progress made by all parties in solving the katabatic aid thats days after saudi arabias foreign minister said old involved on board to find a resolution saudi arabia the u. A. E. Bahrain in egypt imposed the land air and sea blockade on cateye and 2017 among their demands was for doha to downgrade relations with iran and Emergency Services are evacuating homes in the path of a bushfire state of queensland people on Fraser Island have been told to leave after the fire burnt launch pods of the north east and states those are the headlines coming up next on aljazeera inside story. And. Their own take small steps away from the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and polls all growing louder for a new agreement so how would the incoming u. S. President deal with the challenge this is its own story. Hello welcomes a program on iran come on u. S. President elect joe biden has. Mr reverse of Donald Trumps decision to pull out of the Iran Nuclear Deal it will be one of his Biggest Challenges when he takes office in 6 weeks time iran is already taking more action to reduce its commitments parliament has passed a bill to stop unannounced uclear site inspections and boost uranium enrichment has the backing of the powerful guardian and Supreme National Security Councils president Hassan Rouhani objects to the proposal but he is under pressure to sign it into law and irans arch rival saudi arabia says it must be consulted if the u. S. Revives the Nuclear Agreement known as the j c p o a i think weve seen as a result of the aftereffects of the g. T. A. That not involving the regional countries results in a build up of mistrust. And neglect of the issues of real concern of real effect on Regional Security so we are confident that both Incoming Biden Administration but also our other partners including the europeans fully have fully signed on to the need to have all the regional parties involved in a resolution one of the signatories of the Iran Nuclear Deal has also suggested a broader agreement germanys foreign minister told the spiegel magazine a return to the previous agreement will not suffice anyway there will have to be a kind of Nuclear Agreement plus which is also in our interest we have clear expectations of iran no Nuclear Weapons but also no Ballistic Missile program that threatens the entire region iran also needs to play a different role in the region. Lets bring in our guests in tehran we have Hamad Mousavi professor of Political Science at Tehran University and joining us from washington d. C. Is jamal abdi president of the National Iranian American Council and in london so sharp policy fellow at the European Leadership Network welcome to each of you id like to begin in teheran if this bill passes it stops unannounced nuclear site inspections it boosts iranian enrichment is this a direct response from the iranians to the killing of an Iranian Nuclear scientist in iran. It absolutely is in our nevertheless i would like to point out that i dont think it will fundamentally change the equation once by then it ministration comes into power iran has officially said and publicly said this that if the by going it ministration comes back to a nuclear deal then youre on is willing to roll back its Nuclear Activities according to the Iran Nuclear Deal so if the Biden Administration actually does go down that path then i think it will be ok but is this an overreaction i mean surely what youre doing is not just about the Incoming Biden Administration but you have European Partners as well who are very skeptical that may well be this new deal that iran Nuclear Agreement plus certainly is going to be a very difficult journey to get to that is this iran basically saying you know or were at the j. C. Pelley now and theres nothing else you can do about it. Well i think the assassination of more sent factories or that the Iranian Nuclear scientists was a major red line did these raby crossed when the nuclear deal was being signed by the rowhani administration there was a lot of critics in iran saying that it would not improve the conditions of the country in today iran is part of the deal but it is being sanctioned even worse than before the deal and its Nuclear Scientists are getting killed by the israelis so either iran has to respond militarily in that can get out of hand and it can be escalate into an actual war or the other path would be to sign this new bill in expand your arms Nuclear Activities and mind you this is being done by the conservative parliament which is very critical of the j. C. B. Away youve also got elections coming up in 7 months time in iran thats going to have an impact as well i want to bring in washington d. C. Here and jim all the easiest thing that joe biden could do is basically go back to the j. C. Would seemingly the iranians have said well actually if he does that well sign back in as long as nothing changes is that something that you think he might do. Well joe biden committed to returning to the deal and has been pretty unapologetic about that commitment even during the heights of the Political Campaign and the challenge against trumpy maintain that that was going to be the u. S. Position i think that the devil is in the details and so there is a question of sequencing who moves 1st is one side going to need to see something from the other side in order to begin reestablishing its commitments. Is there going to be a process as is the u. S. Going to work attempts to work through the joint commission so there are these issues and then i think the other big factors here are going to be the political pressures on both sides so they ronny and theyve maintained that they will return to their obligations so long as the United States does the same but there is certainly pressure such as through bills like the one you just discussed as well as the iranian president ial elections and so there i think there will be an interest on the iranian side really to demonstrate that the maximum Pressure Campaign and the. United states pulling out of the deal. Of consequences and to attempt to try to prevent a precedent from being established where iran will just accept actions like that without responding and i think theres a fear in iran of just the Power Dynamics and if the ron allows the United States to kind of push it around like that then i think they fear that its a very slippery slope and in washington there is already this campaign by those who opposed entering the deal in the 1st place or tried to undermine diplomacy under obama who are i think trying to adjust to what biden has said and acknowledging that this is the path of United States policy and theyre trying to say look dont go into the deal yet lets try to use some of those sanctions to get more out of iran lets you know the lets to me. And that there are further constraints not just on Irans Nuclear program but all blissed the missiles and potentially irans activities to the region and really i you know from my Vantage Point attempting to put the cart ahead of the horse so that that return to the chase q a which i think is a necessary 1st step for negotiations to potentially address some of those other things but if we try to make those preconditions to negotiations here in washington and that i think the whole thing gets much more complicated and were looking at a much different scenario where both sides potentially move in opposite directions pretty quickly so its going to be a matter of the sequencing the devils in the details and were going to need to see the by the Administration Come out pretty quickly and aggressively. With ways to reenter that deal so that those potential talks can to there is a time them a hedge of all of the there is a time limit because there are iranian president ial elections coming up maybe the Biden Administration ways to say whos in charge after old the iranians have been waiting to see who won the u. S. Election before they decided on what they were going to do so maybe the biden mr mason has to wait as well. Well i dont think thats the inclination of the by the ministration i think that they do understand that there is a rare window of opportunity here with any ronny in that administration that has really you know over the past few years weve relied on the iranians to show restraint in the face of major provocations from the United States and israel and so that is not necessarily the formula of the United States going to be able to enjoy under a future iranian in the street that gets elected this summer and so i think that the buying team understands they need to build some credibility now they need to claw back some of that credibility for diplomacy within the iranian political system where the you know iranian leaders are able to actually move forward with diplomacy rather than. You know iran returning to hardline rule embracing this notion that was championed by the likes of. Which said that you cant negotiate with the west you need to respond to pressure with pressure and there needs the a much more aggressive approach so i think for the by 900 and or stand they need to build that capital now they need to go back to the deal under this current Iranian Administration demonstrate that the deal still can work and hope that the next Administration Inside of iran sees this deal as a political winner as something that is benefiting the iranian people and benefiting iran and they should let me just play something im going to put some of your points to how many there is says jamal and opportunity head however there is a massive trust deficit right now between tehran and washington d. C. Tehran it seems to be saying and quite rightly possibly in their opinion that this is a country that doesnt honor its deals now is that a problem that simply wont be able to be resolved. Im so i think if if the by going to administration decides to come back to the deal that already exists without changing the details then it can actually exploit the window of opportunity that dr abdi pointed out nevertheless if they decide to actually change the details and there has been some indications that they are actually interested in changing the details especially the sunset clauses which actually put time restrictions on the limits of Irans Nuclear program and some of them of are coming up in 5 years and another one in 10 years and they want to postpone that if they actually do decide to go down that road then what thats going to do is that will require further negotiations and the current deal is the result of several years of diplomacy and theres no way you can actually reach a deal in 6 months time with changing the details. So if they do actually decide to go down that path then they will have to wait and see who the next president is and any on usually parliamentary elections give you a taste of whats to come in when it comes with conservatives winning the last parliamentary election there is a very good chance that they are also going to win the presidency and thats going to complicate the situation furthermore if they also want to talk about who we should all issues in the Missile Program and theres also been talk of that i mean george biden pointed to these issues in the article he wrote for c. N. N. On iran and if they actually want to talk about that then thats going to make it very difficult and complicated because essentially thats the approach of the trumpet ministration which is let us know where and i dont think youre on will actually back down on those 2 issues lets bring in london. This is your other guest of tehran basically saying yes iran Nuclear Agreement plus thats the ground up. Absolutely i think that both of the speakers are absolutely correct both hammett and jim all the focus right now has to be on a mutual restoration of the j. C. P. O. A. s the Iran Nuclear Deal and the peripheral issues that many people are talking about in washington in grippy in capitals such as missiles and irans regional behavior that has to be dealt with later and perhaps in a completely different format because it involves the entire region iran for example is one of the 11 countries in the region with long range Missile Systems so unless you are having negotiations or dialogue in a format that includes other players and takes into account irans deterrence needs you can expect iran to begin to negotiate on its missiles the president elect joe biden knows that the nuclear file is the top priority and thats why he reiterated the points that he made in his c. N. N. Op ed that was just referred to interviews and interview with the New York Times i think its going to be very important that europeans take that as a very clear signal that biden hasnt changed his opinion on what the priority is which again is resolving the issues related to restoring the j. C. P. O. Way as has been said already there is an issue with sequencing who goes 1st though that we cant ignore that the last 4 years have happened and that there is a massive trust deficit and you know proposals on the how we move forward have to recognize this imbalance of responsibility to stand any chance of success the u. S. Is who abrogated the deal the u. S. Is who unfairly imposed sanctions that have been killing ordinary iranians and the u. S. Has put its allies and partners not only in the region but also in europe at further risk due to the high end risk of conflict so overall i think that its very clear in the president elects team what the priorities should be but its inevitable that we have everybody. Now in the current moment trying to take advantage of or have a fear that theyre going to lose out on the leverage thats been gained against iran economically over the prosecutor years due to sanctions if you look at the Economic Data iran is likely to actually return to a period of Economic Growth even while under continued u. S. Sanctions so i think that Everybody Needs to focus on getting in line especially ahead of the joint commission coming up in 10 days and a further ministerial meeting that will include the Foreign Ministers of all the remaining g. C. P. O. A participant. I just want to put to you one of the things that seems to be a misunderstanding or at least a difference of opinion is the fact that in iran this is seen as a defensive action this is the iranians protecting iranians everything that they do is in this over in National Interest but yet and we havent really heard this before but we are increasingly hearing now that what iran is doing is increasingly more aggressive that its actually making more problems than the European Union for example would like why is that misunderstanding coming to the full now. Well you know i think that iran is under extreme pressure and has been now for a number of years and there are a few areas in which they can increase the pressure on the europeans the United States and also regional adversaries to say that were not going to put up with this kind of pressure and you know its very interesting to see some of the reporting and commentary for example on the recent iranian bill which will in fact and expand irans Nuclear Activities some reporting has said that its going to halt all of the in i. A. E. A. Inspections on iran in fact a lot hasnt been ratified yet but it likely will be done very soon within the next week or 10 days after that there is a 2 month period before the initial steps are taken so again like we saw 32020. 00 iran is actually continuing this tempo of leaving 2 month windows for diplomacy before they take further steps they want to see quick action and they dont want to see the hawks in europe or washington trying to take advantage of this transition period and try to claim that more can be leveraged out of iran so i think the yes and ron inevitably has been under a lot of pressure and therefore has been perhaps acting out in the region more or expanding its Nuclear Activities but we have to take into context that they have to respond and overall if you look at the picture on a holistic basis theyve actually shown immense trust should change it restraint and patience because all of the Nuclear Activities that they have done apart from quite Minimal Research and development all those steps are reversible and a lot of the times theyve actually announced them proactively so nobodys caught off guard so i think its important that iran continues to show transparency and clarity on the steps that they may potentially take and all of us also make sure that we. Think about her core on those steps correctly. We began this year with the killing of a key military leader in iraq of a key Iranian Military leader in iran ordered by the president of the ton President Donald Trump and then told the end of the year theres been a killing of Iranian Nuclear scientists the language used in washington d. C. Often is not your on your Nuclear Program is yarn in a Nuclear Weapons program there seems to be a concerted effort by america to actually go off to iran. And thats not going to be helpful for the trump for the biden and mr minister i said when they come in chile yeah the by the administration will i think need to demonstrate that there has been a reset that there has been a change in position. And thats why this talk of leverage there are some who have argued that well theyre trying to ministration has built up this leverage against iran that biden shouldnt just trade you know trade back to return to this this deal that supposedly is no longer as worthwhile because some of its. Some items of it are are expiring and thats just such a misreading of things and i think that the biden team understands this you know if i were to take office and to double down on the sanctions and to greenlight some of these provocative you know whether theyre assassinations by israel or other provocative actions by the United States i think wed be doomed to this failed path that trump has put him on and its really its an albatross these sanctions its not leverage the key weakness is trust just as everybody has laid out and so there has to be this demonstration just as happened i think d from bush to obama back in 2009 there was this effort by the new administration to try to demonstrate this is a this is a new opportunity the United States is since. Really interested in the gauche ations and understanding that on the iranian side its politically going to be very difficult after having. Seen the United States were neg on its commitments punishing the iranian people really draining the Political Capital out of any moderate or protocol mostly forces inside of iran and so its going to be very difficult to convince iran to come back to the table in good faith and so that reset is in the very important in the very early days of the biden search how many missile we often have that iran is showing restraint you touched upon it yourself. When you said look this new bill if it gets passed into law is restrained its a restrained response the killing of the scientists is restrained response to the killing of a senior Iranian Military leader but however there are conservatives are all hard line is that want iran to actually push further push back further and harder and those people may be in power in 7 months time if that happens what happens the a the j c p o i and any hope of lifting the sanctions a new nuclear deal does that will go out the window im so so the factions youre talking about were actually against a deal from the very beginning in they were saying to the americans cannot be trusted the problem is that the memory of the 4 years of the trumpet ministration is very difficult to forget i mean when that j. C. Peel way was being signed in 2015 you had right wing senators such as tom cotton saying on twitter that you know were going to shut down this deal with the sign of a pen and of people like zarif irans foreign minister were saying that thats not true but in fact when donald trump came into power he was able to withdraw from the nuclear deal through an executive order and you have people in iran politicians as well as even circles in Academic Circles in universities. Saying that what is the guarantee that the for your all comes back to the or there is a chance that donald trump would get reelected in 2024 or maybe someone like him and theres always that possibility that the us will withdraw again in. A lot of conservative factions believe that showing restraint is actually not restraint but showing weakness arent those of those factions are those factions right having mousavi they did what they the americans werent trustworthy they did pull out of the deal. Yes i personally believe that iran should have different approaches to the trumpet ministration 2 and a different path towards the democrats such as biden when when donald trump came into power i mean he essentially played hardball with iran when he assassinated quite sensible a minute january iran actually did chill restraint because it actually informed the rockies of the attack prior to actually firing the missiles allowing the americans to go into bunkers and having 0 casualties and i dont think any other country in the region would actually show that kind of restraint for a person such high up as a money and shoring those kinds of restraints actually did not help the situation it actually made the situation worse because the trumpet ministration actually kept pushing even further. But at the end of the day to go back to your question the presidency will change in june nevertheless or we will have a new president elect in june nevertheless the supremes leader Ayatollah Khomeini is the same and i think the official position of the government and what im saying the government i mean the government as a whole including the supremes leader i think if the by that administration does come back to the nuclear the or youre on will also come back to the deal even if we have a different president tomorrow or day we are running out of time but i just watch you very quickly do you are you still after hearing everything that you just heard are you still confident that the Body Administration can pull this off. Yeah i am confident. I think that as long as the by mr asian sort of doesnt get distracted by some of the some of the i think bad faith calls for demanding more before returning to that deal i think that its a course until i think its very possible i think. As long as the by ministration does move forward d confidently the tricky part is then going to be what happens next and i think its positive that there is so much talk about further diplomacy that was always the points but 1st things 1st there has to be a clean return to the deal and if that happens that will mean that iranian restraint over these several years was worthwhile it did work in preserving this path way to diplomacy and its going to be i think incumbent on the United States to both figure out a way to make this a deal that cannot be reversed by the next president and whether that means by putting it through congress which is probably very difficult or further to the diplomacy to actually provide some Political Capital for what comes out of these the these negotiations so thats going to be the tough part provided thats where the real work needs to happen for now this is simple this is clear go back to the deal lets start from that as the ground floor rather than this maximum pressure debacle which puts i think any future president in a very bad position thats where they start out so its all up to buy that right now i want to thank all of gas hammad missile of ija model abdi and say hello and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting a website aljazeera dot com and for further discussion goes off Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and you can also join the conversation on twitter we are at a j inside story to me imran khan and the whole team here and i hope i find out. December on aljazeera its 10 years since a better solution in tunisia ignited the arab spring aljazeera looks back at the uprising and asks what really changed across the middle east this stream is where al jazeera has global audience becomes a Global Community i give after the 1st coronavirus case in china well examine the devastation caused by the virus and the efforts made to eliminate covert 90 people in power is back with more investigative documentaries and indepth stories climate leaders will gather online to press ahead with a new stage of the paris climate agreement and examine the possible likely solutions december on aljazeera. 2020 the year of lockdowns and social distancing he cant reach across the screen and give someone a alleyway explores one of the global pandemics biggest side effects the loneliness everyone who lives alone has been forced to be socially isolated for the 1st time ever highlighting its effects on physical and Mental Health and discovering unique ways of coping controlling being alone together at the same to have all have a lockdown on aljazeera. Hello again limassol and with the headlines for you here on aljazeera millions of people across the u. S. State of california back on the lockdown the stay at home order is being implemented as the state reports its highest ever number of infections more than 30001 day. And in pakistan 6 coronavirus patients have died in a hospital in peshawar after oxygen supplies ran too low hundreds of patients were left for hours on reduced oxygen because of a delay to deliveries or has more from islamabad theyve had been. Reading