Transcripts For ALJAZ Inside Story 20240711

The outcome of talks aimed at ending nearly a decade of violence in libya. Thats despite rival factions being unable to reach an agreement on who will lead the country through a transitional period. The majority in the room do not want the status quo. This is not an acceptable alternative. It is not sustainable. Everybody recognizes the hard summer. We have many libyans just passed through with no electricity, and very little water and all the other hardships and the pandemic really, i think, was a wake up call. Then later if europe is to grey region has confirmed that his forces fired rockets out the airports in eritreas capital. He says the military has been using us mars airport to launch air strikes on t. Gray. The attack marks a major escalation in the 12 day conflict. Ive been scenes of jubilation in peru off the interim president manuma reno announced hes resigning off to just 5 days on the job. He had been on the mounting pressure to stand down, also replacing the star who was impeached. The u. S. Has recorded 1000000 new corona, virus infections in just the past 6 days. Johns hopkins university, which is tracking the outbreak globally, has counted more than 11000000 u. S. Cases in total. And viruses appointed by president elect joe biden have described the soaring rate of infections as deeply as a by john has agreed to extend the deadline for withdrawal from a disputed districts of color as part of a deal to end fighting over a nickel in a cutback those are your headlines and hes continued to inside story conflict in ethiopia, risks pulling in the neighborhoods. Retries capital has been formed by forces in the region. They say a small box, addis ababa in its ongoing military operation in that region. So is the horn of africa facing a wider conflict. This is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program. And its a conflict in ethiopia is spilling over its borders and threatening to destabilize the horn of africa. To grays leaders say they are at war with eritrea. Because its forces have got involved in their fighting in their region. And theyve launched attacks on eritreas capital asmara, despite its government denying involvement. 2 rockets hit the citys main airport and a 3rd targeted a state Media Building forces loyal to tea grays ruling party have been fighting Ethiopian Government troops for nearly 2 weeks. This is a home for those who attacked agree will not just attack and return home. We will retaliate while they are here and strike the airports from which they launched attacks. There is no place that we cant reach and we will continue to attack selected targets that the invading forces are using against us. I think profiling and massacres are reported to be taking place with both sides, being accused of atrocities. Ethiopias Prime Minister abu ahmed says, those who commit crimes against humanity and peace will be held accountable. Mohamed odeh reports from the city of gonda that mission by the to korean leadership thought they cut it out. Missile attacks against a smart of a couple of eritrea means that the war, integrated regional, funny, theo, p. A house officially spilt over international borders. Diplomats say at a track could get involved in the fighting quite soon. But when you talk to the to grand leadership, they are adamant that better trained forces are already on the ground. Given mikheil the need of the to p. L. F. Maintains not up to 16 divisions from the editorial forces who are fighting in support of Prime Minister forces. Theres no love lost between the 2 great leadership and the president of the trail for working. They have not seen eye to eye for almost 2 decades. Ever since the ethiopia, eritrea war ended, and a period of no war more peace began. Of course, the past 2 years criticised the Prime Minister of hastily signing a Peace Agreement with the full wilkie. Theyre also criticized him for what they call an unprincipled friendship with science. But many people say that given the proximity and close friendship between Prime Minister ahmed and the science of food, he would not. I lead coming in support of the price of the Prime Minister of ethiopia. And what does that mean for the to graham Peoples Liberation front . It means there are some who wish to be treated too heavily armed and powerful enemies. But again, they cannot be ruled out with an estimated 250000 troops and an arsenal of weapons that have been stashed over a very long time. They see every possibility, diplomats say that this could be a protracted war, something thats not going to be good for a that if you appear all of the anti horn of africa for inside story, thousands of refugees have fled the fighting to neighboring sedan and theyre still pouring in, despite being faced with dire living conditions, medical workers fear a lack of shelter and proper sanitation could create a health crisis, and the u. N. H. C. R. Is warning. It might not be able to provide aid for the large number of people arriving. Many refugees have also reported being traumatized by what theyve experienced. Lets now bring in our guests and joining us from nairobi is much bryden. Hes a strategic adviser at the think tank Sarhan Research in khartoum x. L. Bishop. Hes the u. N. H. C. R. Representative in sudan and in london, martin plant. Hes a fellow at the university of london and a specialist on the horn of africa. Welcome to each of you. 1st of all martin. Ill start with you. What is the risk of this fighting, spilling over and escalating now or will, could. Its clear its already happened in the attack on the eritrean capital that happened yesterday or late in the arts nearly was clearly an issue nationalization of the conflict. This came after they were repeated reports of eritrean troops attacking the 2 grahams along the north of the great. So, i mean, it is already an international conflict. There are also some suggestions of drones coming in from the United Arab Emirates and being used to attack the grounds. So we are already in an international conflict. I mean, eritrea says it is not involved, but you think it now it is. Well, lets put it this way. The, there have been repeated reports from many, many people from the diaspora. I mean eritrea never allows anybody into the country on a permanent basis to report. I mean, it is regarded as being, at least as bad as north korea in terms of being a secret country, one in which there is no real scrutiny. So, you know, theres no way of proving it. But people say they spoke to their friends, their families, all of them say that there is a vast amounts of conscription of children into the army that people would be moved up on to the front line. And now yesterday report of the attacks with the, with the rockets landing on us mara. I think its very difficult to think that this anything out and the, and eritrean involvement in this conflict amount to do you see this, escalating them as well . Yes, absolutely. I think as weve heard 1st of all the fact that we have refugees crossing the border to sudan and that among those refugees are reportedly ethiopian soldiers or ex combatants who lay down their weapons. Weve heard of reports from western to grey, from near the town of ramallah, of an offensive from the north, which is the eritrean border. And the Ethiopian Government itself, as acknowledged that at one point when its forces were on the defensive, they retreated into eritrea to regroup. Before crossing back into the opiah. So i think for all intents and purposes, theres no question that this conflict is becoming internationalized. And the likelihood is that as it escalates, given the scale of the forces involved, and the degree to which they seem to be relatively evenly matched, more and more of ethiopias neighbors, regional partners, and International Actors are likely to be drawn in. And axel, can you help us out with the numbers of refugees youre seeing coming across the border into sudan at the moment . Yes, at the moment we have received the model 20. 00 and richly piece from it. It will be done. Were working together with the government of saddam to take care of them as best as is possible at the moment they are actually coming into the border crossings, but long is the major 40 crossing in that im not yet, its a small hamlet on board with that and to hear the town has it quickly filled up, we are together with the government, but also with some of the other aid agencies such as w. P. A. Giudice. But also a lot of other local organizations, such as the sudanese red crescent, trying to assist us best as we can. And it is urgent. And we are trying to ensure that we get our relief materials positioned there in such a way that we can actually further take care and manage this crisis. And what are the immediate needs, axel and immediate needs are. I mean, food is always the need and many of the people are actually coming without anything. Soap, they dont have any means of actually has the wiring so we have to take care of them. Luckily, the local community there has helped out quite a lot, but there is a lot more which needs to be done. As was earlier indicated, there is also a need for water. Water needs to be purified. We have a river there, but it needs to be purified. And we are asking our prayers are, were there specialists such as unicef, to actually help us out, that there are so many, many children amongst this, about 50 percent disgusted, meant to be children. So they have special needs which we need to take care of. So it is intrinsic poll everything which aid situation of this nature actually calls ok. And martin, those refugees seem to be fleeing from some of the reports that are coming out, some pretty grisly Ethnic Violence. People being killed and hacked up to with machetes. What sort of ethnic rivalries and then unleashed well, if you go back to the arrival of Prime Minister abbey, what he in a sense did was to sort of say that the ethnic federal structure of ethiopia would be ended, or at least would be challenged. And you know, the whole process meant that he was trying to bring authority back to the center. And theres been lots of people resisting this. But the particular quarrel in this sense is between the local omkara and thats a grans, the im horrible. Leave that land that im old to them was stolen by the to grans. Well they were. d running the country and they determined to get it back, and some of their militias are involved in the fighting. Now, exactly who has been doing this terrible massacre that happened in the far west of the country. We dont know. Amnesty international suggested that it might have been the 2 grounds. Yes. Others now interviewing some of the refugees that are being looked at, looked after in saddam are saying no, actually it was the horror of that. So i think we need a real investigation that close. d look at what happened, but it is an absolute tragedy that this is going on. Because you know, in the end, the real enemy in ethiopia is poverty. It has nothing to do with ethnicity and using these kind of ethnic issues to kill each other, produces nothing but violence and death and is no way forward at all. I mean, martin, could we be heading for a civil war in ethiopia, when these of ethnic tensions have been unleashed . Well, were not heading for it. We are in it. Thats what we are in right now. And the real danger is that other groups are we say like the aroma. d from whom came himself, but who now are deeply alienated by his treatment of them. Maybe the somalis, others might be drawn, drawn into it or feel they could be drawn into it. And there is a real fragility. One of the things that was came out was a report. d by the u. S. Institute of peace a few days ago, really senior american diplomats including secretary of state assistant secretary of state, johnny carsons. Hes a former assistant secretary of state, came out saying that there was a danger that ethiopia could collapse, collapse. It would be the worst collapse of the state in 50 years, and im not predicting that will happen. But these are people who are really serious about the whole world. And if they are worried about it, then i think we all should be. And not do you fantasize the beginnings of a civil war here in the, in ethiopia with these tensions unleashed i yes indeed. And i think as, as martin said, this isnt necessarily even the beginning of the civil war. There have been incidents of intercom, mineral, and Ethnic Violence across the country over the past couple of years, including very serious massacres on the scale of what we have seen over the last week or so. And in to grey. In fact, i saw just this morning, a report of dozens of ethiopians being massacred in the western benish jungle region. Now, weve also seen the Ethiopian National Defense Forces deployed to fight against romo rebels, mainly the aroma liberation front and the a romos liberation army. Who with whom Prime Minister abyan ish, we entered into Peace Agreements, which appear now to have turned against him. As martin said, having been alienated by his policies. So we see that the federal government isnt battled on on several fronts. It has seen the emergence of a new Regional State in the saddam era area of west 70. Theo and the, and the reform agenda that Prime Minister abbey promised when he came to power now seems to be perhaps building a life of its own. And a momentum of its own that goes beyond the federal governments control and is unleashing some of the centrifugal forces that have been suppressed in ethiopia for decades. An axle, any indication or any estimate on how many more refugees you fear might end up crossing those borders . I mean, we dont have any clear figures. We are, however, mending some planets. And we are discussing this with the government of saddam. I mean, as always, we would like to see this is be all the soonest possible in order for us not to mount a long art larch operation which is done late on very, very difficult to de Commission De time. So at the moment were planning or the 20000 that we have also people sufficient stock for additional people who have up 200000, which is in our plan at the mall. However, this is very, very heartening in this age. And as i understand the other members are saying here, it might be long at this stage for unity are for the human were for our host government here to say that if its ok, but we are constrained to we also would like to see that to get there we actually take care of these people in such a way that they have the immediate needs. 8. Martin, can you help us understand why eritrea might be interested in coming in alongside the theo pins to target the forces and the government of tikrit help us understand the past history between take ray and eritrea . Well, its a long and complex history and in some ways goes back to 960. 00, s. And student politics in addison, believe it or not, a differences in perspective, differences in ideology, for example, between the chinese perspective and the russian, the soviets perspective. But it goes very, very deep. And although the eritrean rebels and the grand rebels who are now in power in their respective regions, you know, actually cooperated at some times. They also fell out spectacularly. And anyone who remembers the 198485 famine, the terrible time of the tour across ethiopia, should remember also that the eritreans closed the route in from sudan for aid into to gray. 100000 area to grans, had to march across rough terrain. Many, many of them died into sudan to just to survive. And the to grans have never forgotten this. And president of, of eritrea has also not forgotten it. And he sees the grands as sort of his nemesis in the world, and hes determined to rid himself of them. And it is an absolute tragedy because in a sense what, what the 2 grams an hour find themselves in is in a Pincer Movement from north and south from eritrea and from the federal forces of, from at a suburb. And they are fighting for their lives. I mean that there is no way that they can give up and in a sense, Prime Minister abbott is also painted himself into a corner, which is why any suggestion this is going to be a short conflict . I think is probably mistaken unless there is huge pressure from the International Community on both sides. To resolve this conflict, martin mentions that the pressure the to grains are, is there are a possibility that the gebran, michel, the prince, and governor mel gibson. Michel, a bigger pot, miscalculated when he held those local elections in september and ignored the central governments a command to cancel them. Well, i think if a miscalculation means that did he expect a full fledged military intervention so quickly . Id be surprised if that was that was his calculation. But its important to recognize that both sides in this conflict at that time were defending what they considered to be constitutional and legal principles. The, the grey and leadership as far as they were concerned, their mandate, the mandate of the federal government and regional governments for ending elections were to be held on 29 august. And in order to renew the legitimacy of ethiopias, political structures of its parliament and of its executive elections were absolutely necessary. So they went ahead according to the original schedule, as they understood it on the other side. Prime minister abbey, who himself is not yet an elected leader in a space, clearly aspires to be one. And his administration decided to postpone elections because of the covered 19 and demick and to extend his term of office. So as far as the to grans were concerned and of course other opposition groups. The federal government has outlasted its legitimacy and is not in a position to dictate what is legal or illegal to the regions. Ethiopia also is a federal state, but many of the principles in its constitution are essentially common federal with the power lying, with the people and the Regional States, not with the federal government. So to grace sees itself as defending its own sovereignty. The federal government, defending ethiopias unity, and as i think as martin was, was suggesting, this is shaping up to be an ex, essential clash between the 2 sides. Axel martin also mentioned before the family 984 to 5 family, and some of the refugees crossing back into sudan, a people who already left the camps are going back to camps. They were in as a cause of the last famine. What are you hearing from people crossing now as to why theyre going back to sudan . You know, im screwed up to the, actually weve had a lot of refugee camps, especially in this area, and we still have point, a lot of refugee camps in this area. We all are actually at the moment were hosting about 100000 refugees on mainly eritrea in the area. Now the fact is that we had decommissioned a couple of camps and we are looking at actually if we open it down, one of these is and here we have together with the government of sudan, done an assessment to look at how many this site can actually host, but we are in urgent need of actually additional sites mainly to decongest the border areas because there are so many people there at the moment. But also to make sure that we move people from the border further in. And in order to ensure that we have a stability and character of the camp and our splay. So we are looking at all the camps which we had at the time, actually commissions. And were trying to see if some of them are still suitable to host refugees. So its not something which we would like to do, but in this case its something thats a serious martin. Weve been reminded repeatedly over the last 10 days that the european Prime Minister ahmed won the nobel prize for making peace with eritrea. And we were led to believe there were going to be a process of debt. Democratization in ethiopia. Is that, is that project over . Is it obvious faults . Well, isnt this the curse of the Nobel Peace Prize . I mean, mr. Kissing a got it and sense who she got it and i wouldnt say either of them covered themselves in great deal or a afterwards. Its a real problem. You know, i dont know. I, i hope the protest isnt over. Ethiopia, definitely needs democracy, needs to resolve its conflicts in a peaceful way. But you know, it is, has always been a country which throughout its long history has been ruled by very tough people who used a robust measures to put it bluntly. And you know, will they be able to find another way home forward . I hope so, but i wouldnt be too optimistic. Should we say ok, then ill leave that last question to you. Do you think there is a quick way out of this for the ethiopian Prime Minister, or are we heading from many long, dark days of internal conflicts . Well, i would like to be optimistic that there is a quick way out the, the principles for which both sides are fighting are well understood. I mean, theyre highly complex. And very polarizing and emotive, issues that have been part of the Ethiopian National discourse as martin said, for decades. But they are part of the discourse and they can be managed through an inclusive dialogue. Not just between the federal government integrate, but also other parties who feel concerned or alarmed about the direction that Prime Minister abbey may be taking the country. Unfortunately, as long as the Prime Minister insists, this is an internal affair and has rebuffed multiple offers of mediation or facilitation. Then i believe the situation is likely to escalate the terrain into gray favors. The defenders who are very heavily armed and equipped. They have fought for decades in those mountains before and i think the longer this goes on, the more the grievances will accumulate and the harder this conflict will be to result. Ok gentlemen. Thank you very much for the time being. Were out of time unfortunately, but yes, thanks to mark bride and to axel bishop and to martin clout. And thank you too for watching. You can see the program again any time by visiting our web site, aljazeera dot com. And for more debates, go to our facebook page, facebook dot com, forward slash a. J. Inside the story. You can also join the conversation on twitter. We are out a. J. In science stories from a 3rd, a smith, and a whole team here, bison, if you want to help save the world, into your own gang life. This was our foundation. I tried to do something different. When i met daisy, it was the best day of my life. I wish that day could have gone on forever. But my past caught up with a made us all pay the price, daisy and back on aljazeera. A lot of the stories that we cover all highly complex, so its very important that we make them as understandable as we can. As aljazeera correspondents class will be strong to do my money inside in doha, with the top stories on aljazeera. The uns acting envoy to libya says shes pleased with the outcome of talks aimed at ending nearly a decade of violence. Thats despite rival factions being unable to reach an agreement on who will lead the country through a transitional period. By sides have agreed to hold nationwide elections in December Next year. The majority in the room do not want the status quo. This is not an acceptable alternative. It is not sustainable. Everybody recognizes the hard summer