This is aljazeera these are the headlines government protests are resuming across iraq out of a long suspension because of the run of virus restrictions the protests against corruption and unemployment 1st began one year ago. The United Nations and the African Union have condemned an attack on School Children inside class cameron at least 8 children have been killed and 13 others seriously injured no group has claimed responsibility. The opposition candidates in the seychelles has won the president ial election the Election Commission says waffle caliban has gained nearly 55 percent of total votes cast its the 1st president ial win for the opposition in 40 years since the independence of the seychelles. 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Protests and valorous continue cooling the resignation of president bush and capping. Some of the women who have become a driving force of the protests. To aljazeera. Yet another Peace Agreement in libya but will this one hold the main warring factions say its a permanent deal but what are the guarantees and can it and outside interference in libya this is inside story. A welcome to the program. Its been praised as a historic but received by many with caution libyas warring sides have agreed to what the u. N. Is calling a permanent cease fire the deal was signed after nearly a decade of conflict triggered by the downfall of long time leader mamata giveth the libya has been in turmoil ever since he was removed from power in 2011 theyve been 2 rival of miss races one interpret and one other in the east in tobruk both sides praised the deal and promised to abide by it. Lets take a closer look at the main terms of the deal military and armed groups must leave the front lines and all masteries and foreign fighters have to be out of libya within 3 months that the sides will work with the un to start identifying each armed Group Operating within the country and theyll form a combined limited military force of regular personnel that reports to a joint Commission Also the all important question of oil for production and exports are to resume as soon as possible well bring in our panel shortly but 1st aljazeera as malik traina has been gauging reaction in misrata the city is dealt with severe hardship since warlords have to launch his push for tripoli in april 2019 has his report. For libya which has been engulfed in violence for nearly 10 years these past 14 months have only seen the fight. While the east of the country is under the control of warlords for the for have to and the to replace house of representatives the west is controlled by the un recognized government of National Court led by Prime Minister phases they are based in the capital tripoli huffed are who is supported by russia egypt and the United Arab Emirates launched an offensive on tripoli in april 2900 but was pushed back earlier this year as pro g n a forces receive support from turkey here in central misrata coffee shop workers are below watch the news of a nationwide cease fire played on the t. V. Hes optimistic the agreement will lead to a stable libya. We have had enough or we want a democratic and united libya and an end to this bloodshed we have dreams and aspirations and want to live peaceful and happy nice. But not everyone is a minister. Who will guarantee ceasefire weve seen these agreements before and then the fighting continued libyans dont have the power to make these decisions its the foreign parties who will decide if we will have a ceasefire if they decide and fighting maybe then we will have peace in misrata libyas 3rd largest city and a primary source of military power for the internationally recognized government in tripoli according to city officials over 700 men from the city have been killed in the fighting since world war 2 so the 4 have to launch this field military campaign to capture the capital although many libyans are hopeful that this agreement will lead to a permanent ceasefire and a political solution some are skeptical that word cliff will have to and his foreign backers will actually add here to it for of the law and many libyans like him theres a sense of hope that things here will get better but the real test lies an implement in the commitments of the agreement now the trainer aljazeera misrata. For more on this im joined by our guests in paris must be an Award Winning journalist and contributor to middle east monitor daily his work focuses on the mena region and libya imperiled. Me a Libya Research a Durham University and International Development consultant in london jason pack founder of Libya Analysis see what one called to your most of the u. N. And many capitals have been saying this is an historic moment the question do you think this deal will hold. Well it depends on how you look at it as it could be and i really hope for him walk east i hope it will hold but unfortunately the agreement does it is a flawed 1st 1st fall. And then this is not the 1st time as your report mentioned we have seen cease fire being signed but never implemented. Let alone the reinforced in the ground treaty and the current agreement actually and the way it is. A very viable mechanism there is no way to further why the the the the deed itself underground to bless couple of other. You know shortcomings if you like the document itself so besides one last point i would like to mention near the fact that most likely those who call the shots whether de. Cease fire will hold or not part of the libyans anymore they are foreigners especially turkey and russia ok. How different is this equipment from the past agreements that were signed. Collapsed immediately. Well i think we need to start by saying that i dont know if the other figure is referring to the calls for a cease fire. That took place in august. That is what these were called for a cease fire so there wasnt a real agree with the start of the process a sort of speak so what we have today its an immediate complete and permanent cease fire agreement so its different from from the course that we saw in august and i think one important difference there is that this is the 1st sort of the 5 plus far a joint military committee so this is one of the trucks of the u. N. Mediation the military truck and these truck has been working in the past few months on reaching a form of agreement and these agreement has now been reached and the main part in these agreements are the government of National Accord on the one hand and the Libyan National army on the other so this is a clear indication that in this case the 2 parties have found. A temporary or lets say like a way to move forward the transition and to and to reach an agreement and then any is on board where they wasnt told. Were launched by political jason does it make sense to agree on a ceasefire without addressing the main issue which is bridging the divide between 2 entities a government based in tripoli and another government based in total. Well youre right that the main issues havent been addressed i would argue that bridging the divide between us to quote unquote government is not the main issue at all the media issues about how libyas Economic Resources will be allocated and how the corrupt system with subsidies and semi sovereign institutions will be dealt with and those issues have been kicked down the road however i agree with what my friend in paris mustafa jury has said which is that libyans have a right to be hoped for the optics of this deal are very powerful and Stephanie Williams has been a genius at stealing away for the u. N. Primacy from competitive processes theres an attempt to dominate the libya file and russia and turkey have dominated mediation over the last 8 months just as that dominated the conflict militarily and now the u. N. And therefore into alia western powers have asserted and attempt to control the libya file moving forward they say the devil lies in the tales and lets talk about some of those specifics so the agreements mostafa is it possible to decide on militias when this has been a problem that all the institutions that came to power in libya since the 1012 failed to address. December lancers very difficult to process to do actually its not the boss of it but this very difficult thing to do plus it would take time you know if one definite usually lurks and the data is very detailed on libya you have 10 differences at least and one of the this is very interesting point you brought up because the the greenman to even agreement yesterday talks about integrating them an individual basis within certain procedures that to be superfly is by the United Nations mission in the country but we already know mr bush the minister for terry has already to started to broach this with degrading those groups and to his ministry months ago 3 months ago as a reward for them after the fighting subsided around to be and the softer was defeated and activity so this remains one of the difficult things and if you allow me half a minute here i would add that the reaction to the 2 d. Agreement is already coming from turkey from one from the south as well or from such a groups where by day are saying we cannot accept such agreement unless those who try to impede the chili last year and continuing to work to these areas know last summer should be held accountable and many other demands which are pretty all side disco but the geneva agreement and lets say i have to retreat one more thing the fact that theres joint committee between to do sides that the supposed to be supervising the dementation of the digging into itself and identifying who violates it it doesnt work like that like back you know you have to have a bar should but do you have dont you have to have a 3rd but you wouldnt a country from outside there is out of 5 who is really doing that. Is good it is definitely going to be a delicate task ahead for both commissions all which will be operating on the ground in libya the general feeling is that there is absolutely no way people will trust. The accused him for the atrocities committed against their own people in misrata in tripoli and so on who are in different places vice a versa you have the same sentiment in these people will tell you we we want. To trust in the militias operating in the west can you unify these people into one Security Force operating alongside of the whole territory of libya if the numbers should ensure by i think the last few years have shown us that there is no military solution to the libyan conflict so i think that. Led by the new are different on the on the ground there now in libya is to actually find a solution not a military one so in this respect i would say the security operation room set up as part of these agreements is meant to find a form of life security arrangement then and wait for this new parties to Work Together if you like you know we can say its ambitious and sadly it is but it is that a step forward and certainly it would be the details and the implementation that we would have to look at in the next 3 months because that greenland is the place of 3 months transition period during which these groups are expected to rethrow so well have to see in the next 3 months what happens ok so within these 3 months we have to see what happens jason. Can you think about the moment when in 3 months from now. The u. N. Will be able to convince messines flying fighters pull out from libya. Ive thought about it a lot the u. N. Wont be able to because it lacks the leverage if however the russians and turks have something to gain from participating in this process then it might work it was obviously very disquieting to wake up this morning and see that early want him to put the deals and it seems like it cant be implement it and thats a very polite and euphemistic way of saying im going to prevent it from being implemented so in libya you have to create wind winds to roughly talk about how mediations a failed in the past the skywriting we would fail because it put the political track 1st it brought together different people from different parts of the country who claim to represent communities but actually have no power on the ground this deal puts the security track 1st and it is the culmination of the cairo military talks which have been going on since 20000. 00 that Stephanie Williams participated in when she was charged fair for the u. S. And the security track is a closer approximation because it asked people representing those who have armed forces on the ground except it represents the top level the generals and not the militia commanders who actually control the forces so its closer to people who have power but i believe its still flawed it should have been the economic track because in libya people only join militias because theres money in it and theres money in it because you can hijack refine petrol and you can get access to letters of credit because libyas Economic System pays you to be in a militia and they gauge in corruption so it can numb attract needs to follow and this could be one small step forward but if its just a security track its bound to fail as it doesnt address root causes ok and then. I would have to cover different angles here why do you think been very skeptical about the equipment. Well the off season 1st grief very much with much of what my friend jason and london have seen and for your question you know 1st of all. Like the russians even however in directly in the 2nd case of the russians he invested heavily in libya did the libyan situation as it is now some especially. The us and his subordinates political and military would fight there isnt equipment to the government of National Accord in tripoli so he would like to see some kind of history and is a basement there is one thing to 2nd thing is is he when will he be actually willing to let go of what he has done in libya especially and try to maintain the what you know but never base just south of sirte for going to berman and pleas from the Libyan Authority whatever it is i dont that you know i dont think this time the sounds of god would agree mean that he do so borse a cease fire even if he you know try to spoil the whole thing troll pressure on the gene itself theres no theres no interest served by by the cease fire agreement of yes the date for thirst especially if you look at the bar graph to graph of the general principles of the vehement itself and backing off too far to get one whereby its come fairly close to naming turkey as the forces that has had to be evacuated we already know that the russians never acknowledged that they have anybody in debian they will safeguard theyre just depended to group you never send them there and we have no control over them unlike turkey and of course theres one more thing if you love me to mention its very important for the ducks and it does the maritime agreement bordering the mentor Economic Zone agreements which was signed last november. Between g n a and turkey and. Turkey government of course and that was something turkey has never been able to do since the defeat of eden 2nd world war so that mr byrne knows very well that the next government that libya however even if not elected is likely eager to do none of the ok im into altogether or suspended. Was to libya understands that the military support that was provided by the turkish government made a Significant Impact it was can it was the main reason why the hospital was defeated but at the same time have to understand that without the egyptians the russians and the emirate is theres absolutely no way he can survive do you think that would be possible in the near future to negotiate a deal where foreign play us will have to just step out of the whole political equation in libya. And thats thats a key here one thing on turkey its playing a big of a game in the Eastern Mediterranean so i think it tried to strengthen its position in libya also because its so its possession in that way so many tenant think that the issues of Energy Security because of the. Competition we create. And so on so its position deteriorating i think what it will be very interesting here to see is the European Union coming together and trying to strike a different type of. A deal so to speak where turkey are on issues in a summit there and cyprus Energy Security would be at the top of the list and that would set the life in opposite the pressure on the president s and. Turkey in there and when it comes to the supporters of the other side i would say that theres a clear indication that the talks were led by egypt and egypt has been very keen on supporting these military truck so they clearly stand by these agreements and i think their position somehow gives a good sense of where the other beca. Might be aligned lets wait and see what happens next jason youve been insisting on the economic angle of the story have to has been halting access and production to oil to put more pressure on the government in tripoli now that that access could be granted following the agreement do you sense in a way or another is the one who is likely to be pushed aside in the near future for the cease fire agreement to hold. Well thats a very nuanced and sophisticated question youre exactly right huff carswell blockade backfired against him he did it to undermine the berlin conference and try to show that there was no solution in libya without him but of course to cause Power Outages and economic troubles among his supporters in the east even more than it did in the west there will and kate was nominally lifted already more than a month ago by the mighty game how the qatar deal in sochi mediated by russia and what Stephanie Williams has done with this agreement is steal the thunder of that oil blockade and say actually the lifting of it is connected to this cease fire and 0 after supporters have always wanted to ditch him he doesnt peoples agreements hes late hes stood up put in moscow out she likes him theyve been friends for decades but yet he doesnt deliver so yeah the problem is theres no one to replace him but he left salah has a role in the house of representatives but his own representatives wont give him a quorum and hes a nasty person who just wants to hang on to power and no one is waiting in the wings to replace the terrace head of the ellen at his sons or disliked the residents who are he has no charisma so its not that easy to get rid of after in the fascinating thing is he lost the war for tripoli but yet he appears to be to fix her of the peace and he gets to stay in place all right that just shows his media savvy and he had a Vatican Press political reality mostafa this is just the beginning and ultimately we have to see methods or magic things happening in the near future for this political process to continue now when it comes to the next Prime Minister who they think will be the next by minutes they libya briefly if you will soften. No its ok when it comes to the Prime Minister what do you think will be the next Prime Minister a libya well i think its more more or less if you mean the head of the president ial council i think its already agreed that mr ibish on it is likely the likely contender from so far and here is some kind of agreement to hear all agreement among the different parties you know just to kind of to reward him before he leaves the whole political scene the country but then if i could add you know theres a reason why i ask you this question most of you do understand that the president ial council is not going to have any biggest say of the near future it is going to be the government when it comes to the government were talking about Prime Minister the one who is going to take over from phase assad has and hes most likely someone who is politically backed by people in tripoli and muscle. One thats this very difficult to say because they are traitors different names you know but the government such a government will actually have less moment not more power and if theres one you know one thing i could add here very important reason just for geneva agreement to yesterdays the fact that the political track thats gone good start in tunisia. Are 7 just a few days from now at if we can you know if the different parties can translate what happened in geneva yesterday and to litigate agreement then we could say ok we are under ought to be easily be otherwise known and this is going to be my last question to. See libya moving from direction to another since 2011 calls for freedom that a civil war than a political divide do you think that this could be the moment for the east west to bridge that divide in the sense to recognize that this could be the last chance otherwise its going to be a descent into chaos and anarchy. These persons. Are very known and normally very tense and difficult to be honest to to approach but for sure intention when it comes in particular. To the libyan people its to keep united and regain the National Sovereignty and some entity of its institutions and the of its actions so i think what will be interesting to see at the beginning of november if the league and Political Dialogue Forum that is the forum that is meant to bring together the friends of political and Civil Society and that will be discussed. Amanda and new governments framework is no i think it will be very interesting them to see where the country will go from there and we will continue to keep a close eye on libya as the political process continues to unfold for the coming months ahead loss of a photo to alice i learned jason ppaca really appreciate your insight thank you looking forward to talking to the near future and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot gone for was less a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter 100 is a. J. Inside story for me about im the entire team here in doha ive been a. 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