Where protests against the government is sweeping in egypt thousands have rallied in towns and cities demanding that the president resign the top security crackdown has been launched and yet people are not giving up the can the protesters achieve lasting political change this is inside story. Hello im rob matheson welcome to the Program PresidentAbdel Fattah Elsisi has to go thats the call being made and rare protests against the leadership in egypt friday was dubbed a day of rage in which one protester was killed and several were arrested these are has been the epicenter since demonstrations began in september the 25th Security Press in el whod been deployed there in force. Yet at least with guns faced off with dozens of demonstrators before charging at the crowd 10 people were arrested another 4 were detained in the Southern City of luxor on im in cairos how one neighborhood people chanted say it out loud dont be scared l. C. C. Has got to go all the protests reignited on the anniversary of last years mass rallies theres anger over president ccs decision to demolish thousands of homes the government says were built illegally some of the poorest communities are affected 70 percent of egyptians are estimated to be living on the poverty line and coronavirus lockdowns have made their situation worse the protests of the biggest held since 2019 when video messages from egyptian businessman muhammad ali inspired similar rallies he says sisi and his allies spend public money building themselves luxury homes. C. C. Banned unauthorized protests when he took power in a military coup in 2013 but the biggest wave of arrests has been in 2019 and s. T. International says at least 4000 people were detained while muhammad ali has released more video messages in support of the protestors is urging people to stay on the streets until the president resigns to how do most egyptians unite out of love for the egyptian people take back your country again dont leave it in a ccs hands down with the sisi regime down with the c. C. Regime dont go home do not go hide we go home they will detain us dont go home were in the streets and now we need to stay there. Well lets bring in our guests in berlin ahmed saeed is a former political prisoner and the coordinator for the Egyptian Commission for rights and freedoms in germany then you work so hard zis as a professor of law at what has university and director of the center for security race and writes and in boston to make the call this is a non resident fellow at the Tucker Institute for middle east policy welcome all of you to the program i want to start with my. How significant is it do you think that given this security crackdowns that we have seen over the last couple of years when its come to protests that these protesters do seem to be prepared to take the risk of being arrested at the very least in order to make their voices heard. This for thank you for the for the invitation. I think thats what are we watching right now in egypt is very significant sign to which indicating that the state of fear that the egyptian regime is a has sure has already been. Has already established since 2013. Is not working very well for the sake of the egyptian regime is not bringing the stability that the egyptian regime promised his partners his western partners which supported the him in the last 7 years with a political argument that they have been using all the time that this is the only option that would bring stability for egypt and its saying that these protests i mean saying that there could not be any kind of his stability under this risk of regina and from my point of view. I think that the egyptians gyptian people kept trying to. Break through this this wall of fear during the last 7 years that they didnt have stopped doing this. It has been all is this kind of a small protests like lets give an example like just a couple of days before the 20th of september there were already a protest in the wake up and this approach this was already have been happening for for quite a long time right now and. Its its all like a quick wish in between. The anger and frustration which the egyptian people are living and experiencing for years right now and to and compare the comparison with a few years that they are. Living also when their frustration and anger becoming just more exceeding the limitations of sheer happening what we are watching right now and i think it will it turn it will do continue. As long as we have this dictatorship or tell you and your team in egypt so high it has ease we were talking earlier about the fact that this was principally or sparked by the fact that presidency has this this policy of demolishing thousands of illegally built homes as they call them is that the only issue here when talking about wider range of issues that people are angry about you have to ask yourself why are egyptian protesters so egyptians as a people if we had to generalize are not known for protesting for the aca they i think they proved to the world into the country that they value stability political stability they dont like chaos and to the extent that they were willing to sacrifice the revolution for it when they when millions of them supported sisi overthrowing a democratically elected government under the worst the regime so egyptians when they protest it usually represents very deep seated authentic reve incentives and what were seeing with these latest rounds of protests is that the grievances are growing and i think this is ccs the essential problem is that he is proving to be a poor governor and create because what hes doing and hes perpetuating to egypt theres always been to egypt theres been easier for the haves and he has from the have nots now in the past 7 or 8 years the have nots have. Grown tremendously with the poverty rate going from 25 percent to 33 percent since the revolution so more and more egyptians are struggling to eat literally and now when you add 2000000. 00 constructions that are being either there or being threatened to be demolished if already poor people cant pay with a car reconciliation on a per Square Footage then you are just adding to these grievances so the so the protests signify dissatisfaction with governance but they will also likely tie into a repressive a feeling of repression that not only are we being impoverished but we also dont even have the political space to try to complain about it or try to fix it or try to engage with our regime and the response of the c. C. Regime is what a typical military government will do you crack down militaries are not trained in the art of governance they are trained in the art of security which is a 0 sum game a black and white paradigm and so hes i think the military is just killing its own grave in the long run in terms of its legitimacy and though real concern is what lies ahead for egypt because even if he watches these protests the underlying grievances are still there and theyre ready to move they called us the government and outside observers people who study egypt closely and the media as well ourselves included seem to have been caught somewhat unawareness by these protests even though we have had small scale sporadic protests up to this point as the Egyptian Government and the military become complacent. I think that theyve they they havent been caught flat footed i mean they were anticipating the likelihood of protests and their arrests in the lead up to these protests and increased security presence in anticipation of the possibility of protests as this comes on the anniversary of the protest sparked by muhammad alis revelations september of last year. So i think that theyre aware of this issue theres definitely a sense that there are there is growing tension and theres also sensitivity around the role of Security Companies owned by the security agencies particularly the military weve seen them go out of their way to deny the military is involved in certain Business Ventures recognizing that increasingly the public is dissatisfied with them accumulating wealth while poverty levels as as as was noted are growing. So i think that. They are aware of the issue the question is are they prepared to make the changes necessary to address the issue and thats where we see a lot less happening theres continued provocation with increased cost of transportation this new effort to crack down on informal housing and also the way that theyve chosen to crack down informal housing reflects a fundamental problem which is that they want power without responsibility. And a police state where you cant hold a sign into a square for 2030 minutes without getting arrested for a protest sign 2 its completely untenable that that millions of structures were wrecked it without some sort of official complicity. These and these are in the informal housing in egypt a lot of it isnt what some might imagine as some sort of you know structure that some sort of shanty or some like that were talking about 1011 story building. And so the construction of these of these structures required officials to be complicit and undoubtedly bribery was involved and so going after this illions without addressing the governments role in all of this also reflects a fundamental problem and a fundamental degree of corruption and the better it which this is being handled which further provokes the population want to go into the role of the government and the military in a moment but im a timothy i was just talking there about the influence of mohamed ali and how we should refer to fight muhammad ali is a former military contractor hes now living in exile hes been very critical of corruption as he sees it in the government and he has been driving at least in part the protests that have been happening and happening in egypt now my understanding was always that change was always expected to come from within egypt but these are protests are being driven by somebody outside the country how significant is that actually its. Like that the change coming from within egypt i think we all. Are or lets talk about myself i believe also that the change will come within within egypt and from egypt itself but that the reality saying that there is no space at all for any kind of political moment or Political Activities inside egypt no space at all even the media which has been used before by the egyptian activists. Becoming over became already very dangerous they are following the activists in social media on the internet in general so there is no space even for discussion of or building a ground or building a movement or trying to have. Connections with that. With the bible on the street and actually this is also a code why many of the egyptian activists are very skeptical about these calls coming from outside egypt some of them having an if it will probably im with that that how can you being seen outside egypt and just enduring be able lives and call them to go to talk to the street which is very dangerous in egypt right now regarding that strategy and how the egyptian regime is reacting to any kind of opposition or even just. Exhibition of a different one interview or discourse there other than what the egyptian regime is adopting so this kind of approach and also to see how the protests is an organized theres no wonder presenting the movement in egypt right now or the protests right now theres no. In. So many of the people seeing no future. Or like im talking about the near future of this protests right now it will be just like what happened last year and what happened before some kind like some days of protesting thousands of people who will be arrested or forcibly its a beard and so on but there were there were no be real impact on the political reality in egypt but also from another perspective we seeing it as just. Something we can build on something which indicates that feeling of the egyptians of egyptians indicator of how their c. C. Lost completely his. Egypt. That what what what what he bent already during 2013 and in the corps and so their game has no basis at all. Right now in egypt and we can see this all the time that egyptian im just want to add also. Something about why the egyptians are moving right now despite all of this. Security dominance. In egypt. They gyptian eugene is has launched really a dirty war on the egyptian opposition. Of all kind of opposition and now. In this time he is that in general the c. C. Becoming more visible to that to the normal people who are not politicized when it comes to their economy life and going to mix situation and especially with the growing a crisis and after which we are still living and then come then this thing with. Illegal constructions and this combine that began to demolish all the what called illegal constructions in egypt i think thats a very a very strong trigger to that to the bieber because they are now in the r. C. C. Facing areas of binge or risking their. Daily lives so. Yeah i want to i want to forgive me for interrupting because i want to bring in terms of point because timothy i saw you nodding through that particular point where you said that for ahmed was saying that this was not necessarily going to lead to a rigid regime change but this was something to build on and that the president sees he has if i interpret what i was saying correctly has extensive essentially exposed himself too much and now the people are seeing him exposed to do you think that thats a fair comment i think that its really difficult this view to this point that cease popularity has deteriorated substantially from its its peak in 2 1013. 14 and thats largely a consequence of the deteriorating Economic Situation for most egyptians as a disappointing out and then to the unfortunate reality is that poverty expands and peoples standard of living declines that people are losing faith in and in their leadership which is a you know a common reaction in any part of the world and the fact that there is no mechanism for correcting the course in terms of real actions or even the ability to petition the government to alter its policies. Leaves people to either be silent or reach a breaking point. And take to the streets and risk arrest or worse and so that i mean this is that this is a fairly predictable outcome but i also i also agree with the suspicion that at this time there isnt necessarily. Enough momentum to push this into a mass that they but its still really early to tell i mean last year the protests happened on the 20th and then there was massive repression. And there was a lot of anticipation for the following friday but really nothing happened. This year weve had smaller protests but weve had them now for several days and people seeing people protest might feel encouraged to join and im sure thats part of what the regime is worried about and theyre trying to balance not provoking a larger reaction with not allowing this to spin out of control and thats not an easy ballot strike especially as your popularity is tearing you frankly dont have the Financial Resources to address the grievances of the public. Some as a way of reasons because i want to bring in exaggerated that forgive me for interrupting saeed as i want to bring you in here because again you were nodding through all of that but do you think that there was a point given what timothy was saying that if the protests are directed towards president sisi himself that the military but by whom he is back significantly might feel that he has become a lame duck in the sense that that he is too much of a talk at and they might actually abandon the president and allow him to fall as long as they actual regime itself can stay in place well this is the 1000000 dollar question in egypt because i think most of us agree that the current regime is not sustainable and its really a just whim not whether its going to change ideally would change through democratic elections but thats clearly not going to be the case and there was some concerns or some analysis that there could be an internal coup against sisi it specially when. Samiam name was. Nominating himself for running for the presidency the last time around and instead he ended up in jail and there has been some other concerns that there may be an internal coup now unfortunately even if there is a coup thats not going to solve egypts problems because youre just going to replace one military general with another and the approach the very hard for president and democratic approach is going to stay the same the same corruption and the differences egypt always had a corruption problem its ranking as one of 5 out of 180 and Transparency International but in the issue is whether corruptions getting worse as the Economic Conditions get worse as well and also who are the beneficiaries of the corruption and now that has shifted significantly to the military which is going to make it even harder to switch a military run effectively a military run government to a civilian run government because now you have people who are benefiting from the status quo the other issue that is still uncertain especially as we face the elections in the United States is the role of International Relations one of the reasons i think he has been able to go to the extreme in terms of his repression of the of the political space is because hes had almost no opposition or pressure externally saudi arabia and the emirates support him and they continue to provide find for any israel supports him and trump supports so if biden for example were to get elected and if the senate were to become dominated by the democrats and the congress is already or the u. S. House of representatives there may be more pressure internationally led by the u. S. With the west with europe working with them now that is i realize somewhat idealistic but egypt historically has always responded to International Pressure particularly from the us not to the extent that it is transitioning into a democracy and i dont take the position that the u. S. Was egypt to be a full democracy but i do think that there are influential advocates and stakeholders and Interest Groups in the us that are 6. Sasseville in pressuring the u. S. Government to at least mitigate and restrain some of the political pressure thats been going on in egypt and other middle Eastern Countries so again the future in the u. S. And the future of the military sustainability as a as a government is up in the air and worst Case Scenario is a mass revolt that leads to my bullish shooting that leads to a massive revolution that could become a domino effect in other countries who also have not successfully over their on their oppressive regimes under the socalled arab spring timothy i want to end with you given the fact what on was was saying about the the lack of organization that there has been with these particular protests do you think that the only way that these protests will ultimately achieve a significant goal in egypt would be if there was some sort of Organization Behind it and if there was what do you think that would have to be. I think that its really difficult to d to 1st see any what the pathway is to truly revolutionary change i mean as a high note it the most likely scenario is that there will be internal machinations and in a regime and the regime will choose a new leader if at some point in the in the future if they determine that sisi is has out what. I would say his use. That i dont think is coming anytime soon for the record for the reasons outlined he has been very successful at consolidating his power and rewarding those who support him handsomely and i dont see him having any serious internal challenges and externally its theres really no theres no forseeable. Or going to organization and thats by design of course they have been very effective at crushing any effort to develop any sort of organization in opposition to the government they arrest people for deigning to consider running for parliament under their very rigid system such as they had a lot. And so we have this situation where its come very difficult and they have successfully forced the opposition either into exile into prison into silence or some of or a number of them been killed i mean and so the question is where will it come from and in the interim it seems most likely that will come in the sporadic outbursts of protests and whether or not they get enough momentum to really threaten the stability of the ruling order remains to be seen well i dont believe it i dont have indication that were going to leave at the time of the countess thank you very much indeed i want to say thank you to all i guess on my side and then so has ease in your content a thing called us and boston thank you for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website at aljazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com. A. J. 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Is there are we as is the government the necessary action to really address some of the structural issues we listen i still think that travel is the safest mode of travel and to spend that we meet with global news makers and talk about the stories that matter on the road to 0 overthrown and exiled they appoint and can say if you all dont dismiss the meeting you i mean to much film about the struggle of the elected leader of madagascar to return to his country and reinstate his presidency you know is that the truth. And leave. Nothing to do you think is that all the long winter change things return of the president on aljazeera. I want to see. Every. This is al jazeera. Again im peter w. Watching the news our live from our World Headquarters here in doha coming up in the next 60 minutes as a by john and armenia accuse each other of starting a new war over control of the disputed region of nagornokarabakh. Malis president names a civilian as interim Prime Minister removed that could trigger the lifting of the echo all screwed related sanctions. Peaceful negotiations