Week pakistan is asias best performing stock market and the rally may have a long way to go despite the pandemic. Plus famine poverty and uprisings a stark warning says the pandemic wipes out a decade of economic growth. All in the end maybe in a conservative country the choice of continuity was too appealing chief cabinet secretary. Replaced his bastions as Prime Minister stepped down as the countrys longest serving Prime Minister for Health Reasons so challenge is to pick up from where they left off and make sure their twentys are not a wasted decade. Had attempted to turn around the stale economy with a 3 pronged revival plan we have inherited an economy that struggled with deflation and slowing growth after the stock and Property Market crash in the 1990 s. The effort had limited success and r. V. Nomics as it was known was more or less abandoned the central bank introduced unconventional tools to tackle the countrys problems from driving Interest Rates into negative territory to a quantity of easing again with limited success right now the economy is in its 3rd straight quarter of recession in the 2nd quarter of this year the economy shrank an annualized 28 point one percent due to the pandemic to counter that our bay initiated a trillion dollar Stimulus Program the countrys debts are expected to hit 268 percent of g. D. P. By the end of the year thats up about 40 Percentage Points from where are they inherited so what can we expect from surrogates premiership or joining me now from tokyo is now or she could go now is a senior economist tokyo based so me tom foreman sui trust bank good to have you with us so is the abbey nomics still relevant today yes it is. Then i make you feel very important because its accommodate accommodate my theory potency and expansionary policy. That we can have let up already because of an army yes i was able to read the british braces and now read probably 90. Accommodate their policy on the stuff already have kept it definitely thick on the me. So what do you think sugo will change if anything then to abba eban or mc. I think sue gets policy rating warrants same as abby that may be some more different. Layouts all. Fruit breaking after full body items ration the most things they go through the phone. And that was excessive interest i expect him for september no way this year small fire phone charity or how many instead of medicine some Office Education and create that this agency from what they said he thinks you know the government well of i think well be a restructuring a Regional Bank a thirtys no. Means around a center a young cycle of an alex do you think that will deal with some of the basic structural problems and challenges which still face japans economy i mean basic one of which is an aging population right as everybody know your fan has the oldest population in so world. Has said it was and now something made us so that foreign prostrate that he has to fight the 1st man i expect this is all well. Thats it sam says the funny this those stops the ending for operation so across the city from morning their economy may be the key to boost defense economy i expect so though we have succeeded in promoting begin to fall and thinking isnt that the best interest the same time all the expansion measures you are talking about they dont help the debt problem does japan have a debt problem do you think at this point no it doesnt. 90 percent defines a government thats plana by domestic entities the fact that we define almost what the folks find 2 percent of all outstanding defines government from the end of must have been 20 and remains the top by a funk the 2nd largest brightest Insurance Companies and the pension fund 22 percent. On 3 percent do not expect writing best ever to raise our number as 90 percent that would be had by the message and the not. From a dramatic end to the new days youd be. Participant management. And of course you know its pretty recent b. O. J. In addition that the usa has suppressed industry. If you have control policy as long as the current beyond your part of the dems accomplish a mans identity how is it that read that any sound i agree that prices are going. To g. D. P. Ratio. Is high isnt it but i dont think we raise the call. On us that congress that. You dont think that what he said before the election is going to that hes actually going to follow through on that ben i dont think you know a date the consumption tax he had said that to the f. A. A. The necessity to introduce a consumption tax for 10 years to a place more emphasis on economy recovery during after calling the one thing that discuss these cars because thats you know what about when it comes to International Relationships what do you see in store closer relationship with washington. I mean just assume. To have really those people might think its funny that. Foreign policy from a foreign minister. Is also a man on the scene as a result jeffard in part of the really fast u. S. And were focused on today since then centuries before china. Or japan so where does it leave our relationships with china if he moves closer to the u. S. I think we also price amplify is known to connotation ship risk china. Thats i mean us and i for instance so they always have a hard time raising friendly nations their respect to super. At the same time thats for sure looks like its going to be a challenge thank you very much for your thoughts and comments and analysis on that. Under the headline our markets detached from reality we probably have another one thats raised eyebrows pakistans care c. 100. 00 has surged more than 36 percent since march this year making it one of the best in asia yet the rally may have a long way to go the market is still 50 percent below its peak its extraordinary because pakistans economy was pretty fragile before the pandemic after a 6000000000. 00 loan from the International Monetary fund last year the lender of last resort extended another 1400000000. 00 to tackle the health and economic crisis pakistans Unemployment Rate is predicted to surge to 28 percent that doesnt include informal day laborers about 2 thirds of the population or 145000000 people are living in poverty. The nation is dependent on its fast spread to finance its spending in the 12 months to the end of june overseas pakistanis sent back 23000000000. 00 compare that to its exports of just 21000000000 dollars 3rd find out whats behind that stock market surge joining me now from karachi there you could go for you because the chief Investment Officer a karate based faisel funds what do you make of the stock markets then you have does it make any sense well the market is up 56 percent from its low in march when away what their speech and a lot of down to are that easy so i would say thats come to them in a multiple factors multiple all of the factors that i wanted to get to the search question that supply a time you know the debt ratio is increasing right then when it was still dealing with the aftereffects of the whole credit virus locked down to many that its surprising that the stock market would be rising so fast at this point so we have to understand the facts are entered behind the Program Last Year and it has started on a path of economic recovery and our whole edition and confidence was just about to start locals men who were finding it and what happened was the Economic Team here was quick to understand the impact that forward would have liked the economy they were quick to react to words monetary and fiscal stimulus just as in most countries in the globe did quite yet their markets right back and quickly and recover quickly and overall we see the confidence youre not going back thats what locals are primarily for growth this market. For not having next 10. 00 in the market for the past 3 years because they had a lack of focus on the economic stability of the country. I mean for granted and i think that confidence and the locals went on the Violence Free obviously that really started by the central bank by over almost 600. 00 basis points addict it was a fire that. So i would say that the side is not such a sweet spot right now for not having next set of what 2 years and that ability to send more is very limited now and the discount to the region is still dead so its a great time for quantised and to the country again goes out there and i see the markets that are doing on this fall how the interventions by the bank of Pakistan Government being things like you mentioned of slashing rates expanding loans to businesses yes so what happened was men who were 19 the governor initially was on had some solution bought by the good to realize in fact they wont have any started giving some easing in the market space but they are serious early on by a very small and are looking dictated by the underlying fundamentals of the economy are going to be the can drive to the linguistic parts and we can see now that he does it at the ready as anybody says because of the fosters that is expected and i think detrimental for us are going back so keeping we were as strong like all keeping an eye you are repeat and the form of exchanges those that were going to drop in before getting the full grant and then i think theyre going to take their jobs why getting back to doing this much needs doing to the economy and are just the governor i think you have a great team of professionals are going to have that and then this matter what you make of the Prime Ministers handling of the pandemic then. If this is not unprecedented event and this year this country and most are created started to. Generic words in a lockdown then watch for the box on that its on prescription correct and it was primarily a lot down with some focus groups merged with those areas where there was a majority a focus of the kids as they are active cases here so i would say they were on a con and are there to read and dont all achieving their target which is being disease and it was not just him and he had a great team at various levels of the government that are geared physicians and those cities are best decisions because as you can see that spread ration at a different level the problem is that different level and was ordered by being in this epidemic at the early stages so it gives a confidence that the iranian government has the ability being such a big crisis so i would say it hats off to him in a recent interview with al jazeera noncon spoke about the Economic Future being linked to the chinese economy is that a good thing is not a good direction i would say so its a good thing because if you look at history for the past 30 the chinese economy has been growing phenomenally or less and linking yourself to that economy is from an economic standpoint i think its a big move by the government. Unfortunately the best get offered that kind of growth because its just not there so linking up the china problem you already can on next time if things what is going are and we can debate about the finer aspects of growth but thats a separate argument what about the developmental Road Initiative is that delivering for pakistan from a local standpoint i would say it is depicts that this is all dont project. Syncro of the better and one Work Initiative is all down from there and the foods offered are stark. To pay off your card look at a very short down look at the long term dividends that started going to benefit far especially from the early Infrastructure Projects or china set up by fox for the fall or project it set up there so i think with all of those projects our g. D. P. Growth path would have been much different and if you look at the overly economic interconnected then this is your brings congress together and this one boy and 100 initiative is getting last word their boss that within their region we can have better interconnectivity back to comment percentage. The cost of. Being invested to china which as you know im sure some in the west are warning countries about should be cautious about that just. So i agree that that depends on the war called into sinai and what bible if you dig on if its a very aggressive dent it can be detrimental to your country but in this case everything to do that all of our new economy growth were stronger than losing debt from china and i dont think look look at the long term in fact of one bad 100 initiative and its not Something Like theyre not going to give us debt and make us trapped in that and then use us for that one thats longer initiative so i think its a longer term project and they will not shoot themselves in the 45. 00 compromising and focus on on their projects theyre so look at from the song dont respect their lives or think this is going to happen and ive gotten by and are all right thing great talking to you thanks so much to cooper thank you. There are warnings the world is on the brink of a hunger pandemic Charity Oxfam says up to 12000. 00 people could starve to death each day because of coronavirus related restrictions in india mounted fishing is already a threat to life and the u. N. Says the pandemic is making that worse elizabeth for has more from new delhi. She did they these relatives have come to her home to comfort the mother of 2 her 5 year old daughter sagna died after having diarrhea she says its because they couldnt afford to feed her while she was sick got the money she. Got the money she died hungry and there was nothing to eat what do we eat there is no work even if i go looking for work there is none. Sagna is just one of nearly 2000 under 5 year olds who die every day in india with malnutrition the underlying cause and the un has warned of more hunger and malnutrition because of the increase in unemployment and poverty during the coronavirus pandemic. The Indian Government says it spending 20000000000. 00 on giving free rise sweet and lentils to 800000000. 00 households but help isnt reaching everyone nongovernment aid organizations continue to fill the gap left by the state of new scientist magazine for 115000000 andean children who are dependent on daily School Lunches are on the verge of malnourishment because of the long Term School Closure is to enjoy your child rights and you have been feeding the children the people of this westerly neighborhood for the past 15 years and says its never been as busy as it has this year. Sonia who is pregnant with her 1st child collects free rations with what she feeds herself and her 10 year old nephew saeed her husband has been looking for a job since the factory he used to work in closed. Months ago thought all i needed to tiny good. Weve come to stay at our sister in law was to eat because we didnt have any food at home the rations have helped us we could eat a little because there were days when we would go to bed hungry situation changes very quickly yet the uns childrens Agency Unicef says addressing malnutrition must remain a priority so much effort going to preventing and meriting the huge huge numbers of go for it and taking that it doesnt spread more but the same time we should not lose all the efforts made into stopping malnutrition and losing all of the progress that has been made in the last few years. Has she to david the death of her daughter couldnt be more painful her 5 year old son also died from hunger during the economic crisis in india 4 years ago now the warnings are coming in ficken fast with the United Nations saying yemen south sudan and northeastern nigeria as well as democratic republic of congo all facing the 1st famines of the coronavirus era all 4 countries had been in the midst of conflict and food deprived as aid agencies were unable to operate freely a decade of Poverty Reduction in some of the poorest nations is about to be wiped out as the International Monetary fund back in calls from the world bank for creditors to cut that rather than just offering Interest Payment relief the stark warning scummers risk Analysis Firm various made for kraft identified 37. 00 nations that face major spikes in on rest due to painful post pandemic economic recovery and mobile crafts lead economist david willey joins us now good to have you with us so is it too late to stop decades of economic gains evaporating at this point. Yes that the Global Economy has been devastated by the current irish pen demick and wealthy nations are no exception to that about a month ago we released the results of our recovery capacity index to help our clients understand what that next phase of the recovery looks like looking out into the next few months ahead to 2021 how rapidly do we see countries recovering from the economic slowdown and when we look at you know just the g. 20 conference is the 20 largest economies in the world what our data predict is that youre going to see a 2 track recovery emerging so on the one hand countries in western europe in east asia that were initially hardest hit by the pandemic they ultimately had the underwrite underlying resilience thats going to allow them to bounce back relatively quickly from the downturn on the other hand youve got major emerging markets that are now forming the global epicenter of the pandemic these are places like india brazil south africa. Countries that suffered very severe setback economically from the pandemic and their economies were already growing slowly even before krone virus they are the places where our that say are most at risk stagnating you know long after their peers in western europe and east asia have recovered so quite scary for those developing countries what about the debt burden how does that fine through into the outlook specially for allowing come countries yes so that doesnt play a direct input into our assessment of recovery capacity but it is a significant follow on risk factor for some and it threatens to be exacerbated by the its potentially a long period of economic slowdown so were expecting to see lowing come countries. Reversing gains in things like tackling poverty reducing inequality a shrinking the size of the Informal Sector but as these poverty rolls you know grow and as more and more of the unemployed are forced to take on informal labor that is going to deny governments much needed tax revenues at the exact same time that their budget deficits are exploding you know order to support individuals and businesses hit by the coronavirus and having so that is going to put severe strains on government finances and were already seeing Major Economies like south africa for example being forced to turn to the i. M. F. Take on more than 4000000000. 00 in emergency lending this year we at mabel croft are now forecasting that the that south africa is going has a 50 percent probability of being forced to take on a full bailout with the i. M. F. Before the end of the year in order to support its major debt payments coming due over the next couple of years thats quite lying and when those all of this debt ballooning end with writeoffs and council ations old with a bubble bust well weve seen Major Major International organizations like the o. E. C. D. Temporarily suspending. Debt debt payments and weve seen. The i. M. F. Open up its emergency Lending Program and some unprecedented volume of lending to low Income Countries but its just not clear once that those programs are sort of turned off and things go back to normal where. That burden is going to go from there following the you know the recovery from the pandemic thats big question what about the rise of populism thats being blamed for undermining democracy in some countries how is that going to prove to be a challenge in Pandemic Recovery mode so strength of country institutions is a key element of how we assess and measure. Countries recovery capacity and its actually a defining feature of the countries that are at highest risk of stagnating. After the pandemic that they are struggling with weak institutions that there are thats undermining their country resilience so. To democracy from rising populism for example or rising authoritarianism are alternately we believe going to hold back their economic recoveries but then at the same time a period of prolonged economic slowdown is going to exacerbate some of these underlying social tensions and could lead to additional risk factors such as civil unrest and thats a major risk factor that we are measuring in our recovery capacity data set so were seeing this play out in places like india hong kong thailand belarus and of course the United States right now weve had its weve seen it have a significant negative impact on the economies of places like she lay and venezuela but it could also potentially alter the course of elections coming up in places like the americas and and also the election in the United States in november although its been great talking to you thanks so much david willey that thank you very much and thats our show for this week but remember you can get in touch with os via twitter use the hash tag c. D. C. When you do drop us an email counting the cost of outages there or the one that is on the drawings as more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash things and see that im taking strain top. Which has individual reports links and entire episode for you to catch up on. Thats it for this edition of counting the cost im sammys a than from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news and aljazeera is next. It could be the biggest land grab in history. As powerful nations lay claim to territories under the ocean 21. 00 geologists are secret. Borders. As the struggle for resources intensifies some of the worlds most powerful scientists speak out. On a 0. We understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the world. Cinematic. Aljazeera bringing the news and Current Affairs that matter to. How does the. Or the or. The u. S. Demand for the reimposition of u. N. Sanctions on iran is ignored by world powers. Im come out santa maria here in doha this is the world news from aljazeera student activists in bangkok challenge them on a cape with a symbolic clock to clearing thailand belongs to the people. So i think were going to start the brushes extremely soon. You will have a nominee very soon as an interim says he could choose a successor to Supreme CourtJustice Ruth Bader ginsburg as early as next week the chinese at tick tock will be allowed to operate in the u. S. For now despite earlier concerns over national security. Well the u. S. Has broken with a whole other permanent members of the Un Security Council and declared socalled snapback sanctions on iran americas major allies britain france and germany have already written to the u. N. To say sanctions relief will remain this dispute is over the Iran Nuclear Deal which washington did pull out of 2 years ago so the other signatories say it no longer has the legal power to enforce any changes or diplomatic editor james bases. Its a route that even pitted the u. S. Against some of its closest allies its now over 5 years since the Iran Nuclear Deal was signed in vienna