Its people its economy and the way it deals with the rest of the world the bottom line. Hello im sam is a than this is counting the cost of aljazeera your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week japan im aging population soaring debts and column e. In recession can japans new Prime Minister of 4 decades of contraction. Also this week pakistan is asias best performing stock market and the rally have a long way to go despite the pandemic. Plus famine poverty and uprisings a stark warning says the pandemic wipes out a decade of economic growth. In the end maybe in a conservative country the choice of continuity was too appealing chief cabinet secretary. Replaced his bastions as Prime Minister stepped down as the countrys longest serving Prime Minister for Health Reasons challenges to pick up from where they left off and make sure their twentys are not a wasted decade. I have attempted to turn around the stale economy with a 3 pronged revival plan we have inherited an economy that struggled with deflation and slowing growth after the stock and Property Market crash in the 1990 s. The effort had limited success and rb nomics as it was known was more or less abandoned the central bank introduced unconventional tools to tackle the countrys problems from driving Interest Rates into negative territory to a quantity of easing again with limited success right now the economy is in its 3rd straight quarter of recession in the 2nd quarter of this year the economy shrank an annualized 28 point one percent due to the pandemic to counter that our bay initiated a true trillion dollar Stimulus Program the countrys debts are expected to hit 268 percent of g. D. P. By the end of the year thats up about 40 Percentage Points from where are they inherited so what can we expect from surrogates premiership or joining me now from tokyo is now a year or she could go now is a senior economist that tokyo based so many tournaments so we trust bank good to have you with us so is abby nomics still relevant today yes it is. Then i make you feel very important because its accommodate accommodate my 3 potency and expansionary its probably the. Best that we can have let up already because of an army yes i was able to brag that were defray ssion and now raised probably 9. Accommodative always be on the actually thats always the best but definitely take on the me approach so what do you think sugo will change if anything then to abba eban or mc. I think to get out of the raging war is same as obvious that there may be some more different. Fruit breaking after full body items ration the most things they go through the phone. And that in fact i expect him for september no way this year small fire phone charity or comments that i made since some of the current is patient and create that agency from what they said hes a shill of the government for i think well be restructuring a Regional Bank a 30 no. Means around a center a young cycle of an alex do you think that will deal with some of the basic structural problems and challenges which still face japans economy i mean basic one of which is an aging population right as everybody know your fan has the oldest population is i worked. Super has said it was and now something made us so that foreign prostrate that she has the 1st man i expect this is all well. Thats it sam says if only this those stops the ending for operation so across the city from morning their economy may be the key to boost defense economy i expect so though we have succeed in promoting bigger after the fall and thinking isnt that. The same time all the expansion measures you are talking about they dont help the debt problem does japan have a debt problem do you think at this point no it doesnt. 90 percent defines government thats plana by domestic entities the fact that we define. What the folks find 2 percent of all outstanding defines government from the end of must have been 20 and remains the top by a defunct the 2nd largest brightest Insurance Companies and the pension fund with 23 percent. Sequentially percent we do not expect writing best ever to raise or not go at 90 percent every day to be had by the message and the not. From a democratic entity you did youd be a participant management. And of course you know its pretty recent b. O. J. In addition that the usa has suppressed industry. If you have control policy as long as the current beyond your part of the dems accomplish amanda did you see how to read that any sound i agree thats at best prices are going. To g. D. P. Ratio. Is high isnt it but i dont think we raise the call. On us that congress that. You dont think that what he said before the election is going to that hes actually going to follow through on that ben i dont think you know it is a consumption tax he had said that he then affaires a necessity to introduce a consumption tax for 10 years to a place more emphasis on economy recovery during our after calling one thing that discussed this clock because thats you know what about when it comes to International Relationships what do you see in store closer relationship with washington. I mean yes thats a to have really those people might think its funny that. Foreign policy from other foreign minister. Has also really meant. As a result jeff rense Foreign Policy really fast us right here and were focused on today since events and read before china. Or japan so where does it leave our relationships with china if you move close the u. S. I think we also price africa is known to connotation ship risk china. But i mean its us just so you know were. Reading translation steps if that source. At the same time thats for sure looks like its going to be a challenge thank you very much for your thoughts and comments and analysis online thank you. Under the headline our markets detached from reality we probably have another one thats raised eyebrows pakistans care c 100. 00 has surged more than 36 percent since march this year making it one of the best in asia yet the rally may have a long way to go the market is still 50 percent below its peak its extraordinary because pakistans economy was pretty fragile before the pandemic after a 6000000000. 00 loan from the International Monetary fund last year the lender of last resort extended another 1400000000. 00 to tackle the health and economic crisis pakistans Unemployment Rate is predicted to surge to 28 percent that doesnt include informal day laborers about 2 thirds of the population or 145000000 people are living in poverty. The nation is dependent on its fast spread to finance its spending in the 12 months to the end of june overseas pakistanis sent back 23000000000. 00 compare that to its exports of just 21000000000 dollars 3rd find out whats behind that stock market surge joining me now from karachi though you could go for you because the chief Investment Officer a karate based faisel funds what do you make of the stock markets then you have does it make any sense well the market is up 56 percent from its low in march when away what their speech and a lot of groundwork that he so i would say thats come to them in a multiple factors multiple all of the factors that are on could refer to the surge but still thats a finite time you know the debt ratio is increasing right and were still dealing with the after effects of the whole credit virus locked down to many that its surprising that the stock market would be rising so fast at this point so we have to understand the fastest and took the i. M. F. Program last year and it has started on a path of economic recovery and consolidation and confidence was just about to start the locals men who were finding it and what happened was the Economic Team here was quick to understand the impact that all it would have like the economy they were quick to react to words monetary and fiscal stimulus just that in most countries of the globe did quite yet their markets right back in quickly and recover quickly and overall we see that confidence youre not going back thats what locals are primarily for who are growing this mark are foreigners having next 10 years in the market for the past 3 years because they had a lack of focus on their enormous stability of the country by the i mean for granted and if that confidence and the locals went on the Violence Free obviously that really started by the central bank by over almost 600. 00 basis points addict it was a fire that. So i would say that prophesied is not such a sweet spot right now for not having next set of for 2 years and that ability to send more is very limited now and the discount is a region that is in debt so its a great time for quantised and to the country again goes out there and i see the markets theyre doing on the spot how key have the interventions by the bank of Pakistan Government being things like you mentioned the flashing right expanding loans to businesses yes so what happened was a man who were 900 the governor of initially was on have some solutions bought by the good do you realise in fact we wont have any started giving some easing in the market space there are serious early on by a very small tomorrow and looking defeated by the underlying fundamentals of the economy are going to be the cant drive to be doing the same parts and we can see now that he does it i dont really need bases because of the fosters that is expected and i think detrimental for us are going back so keeping were already strong like i was keeping an eye view of our rupee and the form of exchanges those that were going to drop in before getting the full grants and then i think theyre going to take their jobs why getting back to doing this much needs doing this to the economy and you are just a governor i think you have a great team of professionals are going to have that and then this matter what you make of the Prime Ministers handling of the pandemic then. If this is not unprecedented event and this year this country and most countries start to. Generic words in a lockdown then watch for the box on that and on prescription through it and it was primarily a lot down with some focus groups marched with those areas where there was a majority a focus of the kids and their active cases here so i would say they were on a con and are there to read and dont also achieving their target which is being disease and it was not just him he had a great team at various levels of the government that are good decisions and those cities are best decisions because as you can see that fact gratian at a different level of progress that different level and was ordered for being this epidemic at the early stages so if you think going for them stack them on one government has the ability being such a big crisis so i would say it hats off to have in a recent interview with al jazeera noncon spoke about the Economic Future being linked to the chinese economy is that a good thing is not a good direction i would say so its a good thing because if you look at history for the past 30 the chinese economy has been growing phenomenally or less and linking yourself to that economy is from an economic standpoint i think its a great move by the government. Unfortunately the best get offered that kind of growth because its just not there so linking up with chinas growth youre already in on that standpoint is a great thing for those who are and we can debate about the finer aspects of growth but thats a separate argument what about the developmental Road Initiative is that delivering for pakistan from a local standpoint i would say it is device that has on dont project. So productive as and one Work Initiative is all down from there and the foods offered are star. To be off your guard look at a very short down baseball look at the long jump dividends that started going to benefit farmers especially from the early Infrastructure Projects or china set up by fox for the fall or for isaac to set up there so i think with all of those projects our g. D. P. Growth path would have been much different and if you look at the overly economic interconnected then this is or brings congress together and this one boy and 100. 00 initiative is getting less towards their boss that within their region we can have better interconnectivity back to comment were spending to be. The cost of. Being invested to china which as you know im sure some in the west are warning countries about should be cautious about that just. So i agree that that depends on the war called into sinai and what bible if you dig on if its a very aggressive dent it can be detrimental to your country but in this case everything to do that all of our new economy growth were through. Losing debt from china and i dont think. Look at the long term in fact of one bad 100. 00 initiative and its not Something Like theyre going to give us debt and they just trapped in that and then use us for that one thats longer initiative so i think its a longer term project and they will not shoot themselves in the 45 compromising and focus on on their projects here so look at it from his own dont respect their life or think this is going to happen and ive gone by and are doing all right thing great talking to you thanks so much to cooper thank you. There are warnings the world is on the brink of a hunger pandemic Charity Oxfam says up to 12000. 00 people could starve to death each day because of coronavirus related restrictions in india mounted fishing is already a threat to life and the u. N. Says the pandemic is making that worse elizabeth for has more from new delhi. She did they these relatives have come to her home to comfort the mother of 2 her 5 year old daughter sagna died after having diarrhea sheila says its because they couldnt afford to feed her while she was sick got the money we. Got the money she died hungry and there was nothing to eat what do we eat there is no work even if i go looking for work there is none. Sagna is just one of nearly 2000 under 5 year olds who die every day in india with malnutrition the underlying cause and the un has warned of more hunger and malnutrition because of the increase in unemployment and poverty during the coronavirus pandemic. The Indian Government says it spending 20000000000. 00 on giving free rise wheat and lentils to 800000000. 00 households but help isnt reaching everyone nongovernment aid organizations continue to fill the gap left by the state of new scientist magazine for 115000000 andean children who are dependent on daily School Lunches are on the verge of malnourishment because of one long School Closure is to enjoy your child rights and you have been feeding the children the people of this west valley neighborhood for the past 15 years and says its never been as busy as it has this year. Sonia who is pregnant with her 1st child collects free rations with what she feeds herself and her 10 year old nephew saeed her husband has been looking for a job since the factory he used to work in closed. Months ago thought all of the liturgy tiny good. Weve come to state our sister in law was to eat because we didnt have any food at home the rations have helped us we could eat a little because there were days when we would go to bed hungry situation changes very quickly yet the uns childrens Agency Unicef says addressing malnutrition must remain a priority for so much effort going to preventing and meriting the huge huge numbers of go for it and taking that it doesnt spread more but the same time we should not lose all the efforts made into stopping malnutrition and losing all of the progress that has been made in the last few years. Because she today with the death of her daughter couldnt be more painful her 5 year old son also died from hunger during the economic crisis in india 4 years ago now the warnings are coming in ficken fast with the United Nations saying yemen south sudan and northeastern nigeria as well as democratic republic of congo all facing the 1st famines of the coronavirus era all 4 countries had been in the midst of conflict and food deprived as a the agencies were unable to operate freely a decade of Poverty Reduction in some of the poorest nations is about to be wiped out as the International Monetary fund back in calls from the world bank for creditors to cut that rather than just offering Interest Payment relief the stark warning is come as risk Analysis Firm verismo for kraft identified 37. 00 nations that face major spikes in armrest juta painful post pandemic economic recovery and mobile crafts lead economist david willey joins us now good to have you with us so is it too late to stop decades of economic gains evaporating at this point. Yes that the Global Economy has been devastated by the current irish pen demick and wealthy nations are no exception that were about a month ago we released the results of our recovery capacity index to help our clients understand what that next phase of the recovery looks like looking out into the next few months ahead to 2021 how rapidly do we see countries recovering from the economic slowdown and when we look at just the g. 20 conference is the 20 largest economies in the world what our data predict is that youre going to see a 2 track recovery emerging so on the one hand countries in western europe in east asia that were initially hardest hit by the pandemic they ultimately had to underwrite underlying resilience thats going to allow them to bounce back relatively quickly from the downturn on the other hand youve got major emerging markets that are now forming the global epicenter of the pandemic these are places like india brazil south africa. Countries that suffered very severe setback economically from the pandemic and their economies were already growing slowly even before krone virus they are the places where are that say are most at risk stagnating you know long after their peers in western europe and east asia have recovered so quite scary for those developing countries what about the debt burden how does that fine through into the outlook specially for allowing come countries yes so that doesnt play a direct input into our assessment of recovery capacity but it is a significant follow on risk factor for some and it threatens to be exacerbated by its potentially a long period of economic slowdown so were expecting to see low Income Countries. Reversing gains in things like tackling poverty reducing inequality a shrinking the size of the Informal Sector but as these poverty roles you know grow and as more and more of the unemployed are forced to take on informal labor that is going to deny governments much needed tax revenues at the exact same time that their budget deficits are exploding you know order to support individuals and businesses hit by the coronavirus and having so that is going to put severe strains on government finances and were already seeing Major Economies like south africa for example being forced to turn to the i. M. F. Take on more than 4000000000. 00 in emergency lending this year we had maybe crossed are now forecasting that the that south africa is going has a 50 percent probability of being forced to take on a full bailout with the i. M. F. Before the end of the year in order to support its major debt payments coming due over the next couple of years thats quite lying and when those all of this debt ballooning and with writeoffs and council ations old with a bubble bust well weve seen Major Major International organizations like the o. E. C. D. Temporarily suspending. Debt debt payments and weve seen. The i. M. F. Open up its emergency Lending Program and some unprecedented volume of lending to low Income Countries but its just not clear once that those programs are sort of turned off and things go back to normal where. That burden is going to go from there following the you know the recovery from the pen demo thats big question what about the rise of populism thats being blamed for undermining democracy in some countries how is that going to prove to be a challenge in Pandemic Recovery mode so strength of country institutions is a key element of how we assess and measure. Countries recovery capacity and its actually a defining feature of the countries that are at highest risk of stagnating. After the pandemic that they are struggling with weak institutions that theyre thats undermining their country resilience so. To democracy from rising populism for example or rising authoritarianism are ultimately we believe going to hold back their economic recoveries but then at the same time a period of prolonged economic slowdown is going to exacerbate some of these underlying social tensions and could lead to additional risk factors such as civil unrest and thats a major risk factor that we are measuring in our recovery capacity data set so were seeing this play out in places like india hong kong thailand belarus and of course the United States right now weve had its weve seen it have a significant negative impact on the economies of places like she lay and venezuela but it could also potentially alter the course of elections coming up in places like the americas and and also the election in the United States in november although its been great talking to you thanks so much david willey that thank you very much and thats our show for this week but remember you can get in touch with os via twitter use the hash tag c. D. C. When you do or drop us an email counting the cost of outages there or the one that is on the drawings as more for you online at aljazeera dot com slash things and see thatll take you straight top. And to each has individual reports links and entire episode for you to catch up on. Thats it for this edition of counting the cost im sammys a than from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news an aljazeera is next. Does lamson manila home to extraordinary talent move little bit occasion and hard work to transform child scavenger jessa into a professional don arena she has the strains technically shes very strong and mixed martial arts fighter just battle for his way from the streets to success in the ring so i could tell you this is your stepping stone. This land on aljazeera. Russia has jeopardized the United States security interest we know what you are doing and you will not succeed perceptions from the outside looking. But more to the picture from the inside. As think russias Foreign Policy is too soft going to be the most russian goals have bigotry not peace and more diffuse full russia on aljazeera. This is al jazeera. Hello im adrian figure and this is that live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes a powerful voice for womens rights Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died after 27 years serving americas highest court. Mourners pay tribute to ginsburg as the focus now turns to how her death could dramatically affect the election and political makeup of the supreme court. Political protests are growing louder entirely