A month of protests in belarus has failed to push Alexander Lukashenko from office no Opposition Leader is a missing fleeing to exile so how much longer can the president hold on this isnt a story. Hello welcome to the program on the wrong alexander insists hes not going anywhere despite a month of protests against the president s disputed reelection tens of thousands of people rallied again on sunday to demand a new fight saying last months election was rigged. They ignored the interior ministrys warning that the demonstration is Illegal Police detain more than 630 people some were seen dragged away or beaten by Security Offices human Rights Groups have condemned lucas and has cracked down on the protests but. Im here to express my civic stance against the rigged elections for treating our citizens the way he does. Why do people come here. Because theyre angry. At what about iraq im not sure what you mean what about about a man unlawfully remaining at his post Opposition Leaders have either gone into exile or disappeared the foreign minister of neighboring left the one year accuse the by the recent government of using what he called stalinist tactics to eliminate opponents will bring in our guests in a moment but 1st out is there is Bernard Smith has the latest from vilnius its becoming clear that if youre a leading member of the opposition in belarus then the risk of detention or just being taken off the streets is becoming an occupational hazard Maria Kolesnik over was according to witnesses bundled into a mass man she was on the streets or minced she dropped her phone by the van as this was happening witnesses say in the opponents picked up by one of the men and pushing her into the bar and then they all drove off shes been a leading vocal opponent of Alexander Lukashenko since he declared victory and the august 9th disputed election that he said he won with 80 percent of the vote since then has been one of the leading campaign is calling for fresh elections shes part of a group of very high profile that leader already exiled. Vilnius. So another leading member of the opposition gone and it comes now at increasing pressures on foreign powers to do. More say more about whats happening in belarus and the e. U. Has said that its now prepared to impose sanctions on 31. 00 senior officials because the government and that includes an asset freeze and a travel bomb apparently lucas shank himself wont be sanctioned germany is not prepared to do that yet it wants to see more opportunity for talks before it considers sanctioning. Himself. Meanwhile according to the kremlin is off to moscow in a couple of days according to sources that real change in approach really because before the election was casting russia as a threat to belorussia and saying that vote for me and ill protect you from attempts by russia to influence whats going on since then. Has turned to the to putin for help and theres lot of putin but hes backing. And making it much more easier for him to stay in Office Without the kremlins backing his position will be looking much more parents. Lets bring in our guests in minsk Yaroslav Roman chuck a former president ial candidate in 2010 hes now president of the misses Scientific Research center a think tank in vilnius lithuania for not via chalk up a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council and in moscow something called a political scientist at the Russian Academy of sciences a woman of continual id like to begin minsk with you jaroslav its been a month now. Schank is not going anywhere in fact hes doubling down hes cracking down hes arresting key Opposition Leaders as well as many others including maria coalesce nakota the protest is ongoing anyway either theyre in defiance of a ban theyre out in the streets in huge number is this a stalemate or is this simply just the situation now and just keep on going its a bill it was a revolution people definitely woke up and this is is absolutely different the atrocities that tortures and motors that they were human conduct that definitely unite people people up for justice freedom independence no matter what location god does it will never. Destroy our determination and refuse them all to society and that the last sunday we saw or the same hundreds of thousands of people not only at mainz but in over 42 by the recipient cities thats unique and we are determined to fight to the end and we suspect that the question who would try to have a kind of deal with moscow for the legitimacy of this deal would be very dubious and even for the kremlin supports gun conditionally im sure that to add to the slogan there will be many more slogans against which you know the ground but every Opposition Movement does need a figurehead it needs a leader and is obviously very aware of that hes arresting leaders left right in the center is that housing and impacts you think yourself. We have a leader in sudan and you can also though shes in exile but we know why she laughed shes with us and of course she is the president elect and. Decentralised call peroration unique way on a mass protest is what them as brothers is demonstrating the question unless he starts negotiation with the lucianne he would definitely lose politico rounds and that he would be even more wounded and more desperate to grasp power but i dont i think that he is doing well lets bring in in moscow bloody mess. Russia seems to be in a bit of a difficult position here there is a lot of affection for russia within the roosts but if it sides with lucas shank of a much longer its going to lose the protest movement at the very least whats most guys thinking. Thank you actually. Your rights its a very difficult proposition for russia actually because. Russia who actually understands that the situation is a serious imbalance some one thing according to russias thinking is that if there will be instability continuing in belarus or belittle somehow will be disloyal as a country there is a danger of that nato countries could rush to the direct border with russia for the russians and that means not in case that doubles that will succumb to russia from some western countries i just would like to say that this is a real feel because. Although the result not actually out of them. For the moment the brothers from belarus have the back up against russia feeling but so there might be such situation this is once another another sonata like what into russia uses could be that lucas chunk will be consuming news as a belarus leader for some time more but that is also a choice for moscow essence you and i will continue business as usual or just make another option to find probably thats not messy got within the close circle of. Look at some cost which it could be a new leaves are. In this case probably probably that might be and that they shouldnt on behalf of russia for holding a dollar lection well lets bring in yaroslavl again. What were hearing from moscow that is that there might be a space for a new figurehead it wont be to have a scale but it could be somebody else would not be acceptable to the protest movement. Well you can also gaze no doubt with the future president bush is that peter that united better or worse not position and most of the society and we demand negotiations with the government on the transition how to get out of this political crisis is different i believe that there will be a new leader if we call it hold free and fair d election and. That reason that he will still have a slight chance to remain in the boats in history as the 1st president without the lack. Of his reputation if he doesnt but then there was a russian factor there is a lag there all grow our economy and changing the nature of the protest in from this peace school or delayed into more trouble aggressive or brutal i could not exclude that if we see whats going on in the Economic SituationFinancial Markets and governments to market. In the villain has i mean this is a big challenge for russia has to navigate both the protest as and. Himself is jus that were hearing in a couple of days but its not just russia theres the e. U. Involved as well what is the International Community thinking when it takes a look at whats going on in the us so far we have quite limited the reaction of the International Community we have 3 Baltic States that have been you know that fan is to a name posed sanctions against 31 and others officials and clinton aleutian and we have a European Union considering imposing sanctions against 17 persons but now they added 14 persons to this least but not location called on the list and so we wish to care about individual sanctions including the canonical restrictions they counts of this people will be blocked more likely but we also will say here mayor many many statements and. International leaders must own leaders are. Tranter supported by the russian people in their aspirations and in their fight for freedom and democracy but i still believe that much more can be done here i know that Many International leaders including the Swedish Foreign minister have met. Have expressed their words of support but still the not many of them regarding nice plan as the as the president elect and i think this is their major problem problem but also is the main and the major goal and task for for supplement to be recognized as them representative of belarus people not to question well thats actually quite interesting. If they dont recognize. It as the president elect and they dont sanction lucas himself and Everything Else that they doing doesnt have any teeth surely. Actually thats quite interesting situation because the majority of the western countries they did not recognize their selections as free and fair and would what means that look after inauguration hes not the letter to meet the legal president anymore and what makes all his deals and decisions and legal formally that should be that should be considered that he doesnt have power they called his decisions and the same time they did not recover ness to north koreas president elect and it means that in fact we will have this country without legitimate and legal power for a while and this is this is why its very important to want. To to to to establish and. For this to come oscar steam its very important to establish connections and common understanding which should be this relationship between. Deleterious and strong democracy right now because it seems russia will disappoint and look anyway despite. Attempts to built a relationship with western democracies. In moscow vladimir we are hearing that this meeting is going to take place between a lot of a putin and a himself what do we think will come of that meeting do you have any idea what the russian perspective might be obviously russia sees the reeses within its influence and thats the overriding factor isnt it. Thank you for the question well rose circle speaking because that was the new shoe to fall for 1st of all the present look of shock i consult for coming on to most to do all the negotiations with russia brussels within the putin. What could be actually i things not probably frozen foods in most places to look at some cabal of the possible the possible to slow the slow down as a zeller oceanfront of them that will be also probably more probable with the idea of a general and we see another things up so that russia has twice more economic on the financial interest some balance and i walked off the finances were actually put down into belarusian the company and bellicose as a very important. Consumer of the russian finances and russia is that it important to consume all the russian roots so as we say as we know that economy in any situation can actually determine the whole agenda so there will be direct talks from what could be the got into. The a look at some cost of that as a presence of relevance or. Safeguarding the russian interests so the direct question is probably a very unpleasant question superstrong because what we can do in this situation this is just just some thinking and although im. Not going to nominate. I think that there will be no actually involvement of russia directly militarily in so the elevation to gratian because we have enough and in afghanistan there was a soviet union and actually i think that the brother putin is a man who actually lost his lessons rather well along the lessons of the possible this. Not getting by well so all i think. Only in this situation. Im going to look at some. Completion obligations recollect that security treaty the well lets bring it lets put that point to our guest in minsk Yaroslav Roman chuck. Nobody is really talking about Russian Military invention intervention with envy the roots itself but we all talking significant political intervention and Vladimir Putin clearly is going to have this conversation if it happens with lucas shankar but is the president elect missing a trick a shes in exile how come she hasnt publicly at least reached out to the russians and and asked for some sort of negotiations. I dont think this is as a direct line of communication with mr putin the kremlin doesnt act like this for the kremlin and for size and that it recognizes the exam to look whos been its loyal ally 026 year i think there are 3 areas where. Russian ability and talks with the whole 1st political area. Even now russia has been supporting with the with Information Support diplomatic support i think that the military enforced crunchers cause a lot of advice from russia right now operating in bellows jim politico area which is very important i think here for a look at is under pressure he could consider reconsider his position on ukraine and georgia that will be a very powerful boost to move to of the kremlin ego and thirdly a lot of Economic Issues that this is where look at franco would definitely try to make the best yourself using his allies he has lobbies inside moscow i mean the Energy Powers and you companies finance. Businessmen talk about people who deliver imported goods from european you know through bel air rules we have about 20000000000 dollars great economy between the 2 countries operated mostly by russia and this is where a powerful tool to look from good to be used in the negotiations it is not on the usual agender but people who are involved definitely out bottle this high ranking force structure is not being quite sure that that would have an impact on what the final decision of which it would be. In vilnius i mean clearly lucas sanka is holding some very powerful cards is he got the upper hand you think when it comes to negotiations with russia. I think a look at. Look at the strongest power right now. Actually russian backup and Russian Support and he really really had to do everything and that will help him to stay in power and right now this informational media and political government is given by putin formally or informally this is what keeps us regime life right now actually i dont believe after put in stop supporting look i dont believe it will stay in power for more than one months lets say and there right now there are negotiations of the new question from within the i think the me the major the major question is what are on the table what is on the table what parts of the sort of any team is going to offer in exchange of this put in support of no question because president s and im afraid it will be not just the integration as it was discussed last year it can be the more it can be. They can discuss. This and the slow incorporation of belarus into Russian Federation lets say and look like a temporary governor or president of this. Other Research Region the part of Russian Federation you can hear of course but unfortunately you know we it seems that hes so sick of power that hes ready to offer putin everything and this intercept and intercept conversation that we have heard that been were somewhat and very lean as means knaan sed this is their. Very good sign that that means its trying the heart to be liked and to be and to Police Moscow right now there is love what are your thoughts youre smiling there. Right now the kremlin realigned that legitimates are looking very weak i dont think that there will be any. Any reelect tends to force look at the signing any roadmaps merger or political merger with russia but of course there will be a lot. In the psychological dialogue between putin and look because they are not on friendly terms and i think that at one point you know would urge to say that this investigating crimes that the regime committed inside the country of course meaning that he must leave and this expression the transition period will be discussed. Between the woods and the location in some detail we will not be informed about that but surely the kremlin is interested in stopping in neutralizing this kind of. A protest and and conflict inside by the rules and he will not rather support look at the regime against the russian people be if you did does that then there will be many more will die russian and i will just slow i saw on sunday less sunday many in fact which is no guns emerging in the streets there were not many but if there is a deal i think that there will be both russian protest would turn immediately and that russian and then i dont think that russian. Strategists would like to see that at lot of us on the gulf and moscow this is something that we keep the herring from mens from the people in minsk if there is any kind of right not a fluke stays with a promise something some point in the future he might go thats not going to be acceptable to the protest as an minsk so the kremlin has a real problem hey they can come up with the right amount but the roadmap might not be acceptable to the protesters and then what happens. Actually i think thats where i possibly agree with my scintillating who. Just or who criticized that one of them might be discussed discussing the discuss the negotiations between workers and the russian president was in 2000 about some kind of a transition period so i actually agree with you its of. Letting down yeah i could but the real problem because the more the situation continues i think in belarus the more problems it is creating not only for russia but for our International Community as well as for you looking to museums or even for the United States so i think that russia will try to probably just adjust itself as the met the later on negotiate helping in the go she ate some kind of solution to the delegation crisis again im just radiating my heart as i said previously because theyre going to huge economic interests and financial interests of russia in dollars yaroslav its interesting here we are in a situation where youve been living under lucas and his role now for what 26 years you know the president quite well from his look you know his public persona hes on the go anyway easily is he even if the russians suggest a road map theres no guarantee that hes going to agree to it. There are people who can make influence him his family which is a factor that he considers the people who would been around his commercial schemes for many many years and of course people who may use guns another. Weapons all tools or what i call s. In metric persuasion a revolution get realized that now theres no more room for playing at pool with the Russian Federation the russian leadership and this is very critical for him to understand that for the 1st time he has no almost a border but there are some people there workers teachers doctors didnt you name it everybodys against and everybodys agenda is very simple so revisit to ation i think hes a goner and the he could just negotiate the terms of far right he is leaving the country a living that was isha and of course he would not like to see. Somebody who uses kalashnikovs to should bag to those who would like to see him go up plenty of gypo sex and plenty of process still to go then thanks to all of gas jaroslav running chucked for v h o n flood i missed something cough and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our websites out there dot com and further discussion got off ace for pace us facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and you can also join the conversation on twitter we are at a. J. Inside story from am on cohen and the entire team here in the house and. If you were looking at this from the outside you would really wonder what was going on but what is this gross is a religion that they have an indepth exploration of global capitalism and our obsession with economic drug this is still the center of capitalism there is no limits i view myself as a capital artist we are trying to pay for the well smaller and smaller we dont want to be set realistic in the world we would rather have a fantasy growing pains on aljazeera. Islam some money in a. Home to extraordinary funny things. Dealing with Health Issues so long as in some of the toughest Living Conditions we need to. Get. Out you soon follows the lives of the remarkable people who were down on crime in the slums on aljazeera. Holding the powerful to account as we examine the u. S. Its role in the world on aljazeera. This is aljazeera. Youre watching the news hour live from headquarters in doha im dating obligato coming up and then i. 60 minutes convicted of murdering journalist. Inside a saudi consulates 8 men have had their sentences reduced in whats being called a parody of justice. Opposition leader is grabbed off the streets in minsk after more mass protests and arrests. Military leaders who were behind a coup in mali a year ago